Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

		Wins	%	Range
1	Sydney	16.8	127%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	1
2	Port Adelaide	15.6	114%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	2
3	Geelong	14.9	112%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	3–4
4	GWS	14.9	109%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	3–4
5	Brisbane Lions	14.3	122%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	5
6	Western Bulldogs	13.8	125%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	6–7
7	Hawthorn	13.9	118%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	6–7
8	Carlton	13.1	111%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	8–9
9	Fremantle	12.8	113%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	8–10
10	Collingwood	12.7	102%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	9–10
11	Essendon	11.4	93%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	11
12	St Kilda	10.7	99%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	12–14
13	Gold Coast	10.9	99%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	12–14
14	Melbourne	11.0	99%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	12–14
15	Adelaide	8.4	99%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	15
16	West Coast	5.0	68%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	16
17	North Melbourne	3.0	63%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	17
18	Richmond	2.0	63%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	18

After Round 26, 2024.

							PROJECTIONS
		W	L	D	%	History	Wins	Finish
1	Sydney	17	6	–	126.7%		+-0.2	1
2	Port Adelaide	16	7	–	114.8%		+-0.4	2
3	Geelong	15	8	–	112.2%		+-0.1	3
4	GWS	15	8	–	109.1%		+-0.1	4
5	Brisbane Lions	14	8	1	121.9%		+-0.2	5
6	Western Bulldogs	14	9	–	125.1%		+-0.2	6
7	Hawthorn	14	9	–	118.5%		+-0.1	7
8	Carlton	13	10	–	110.2%		+0.1	8
9	Collingwood	12	9	2	102.5%		+-0.3	10
10	Fremantle	12	10	1	111.9%		+0.3	9
11	Essendon	11	11	1	93.5%		+-0.1	11
12	St Kilda	11	12	–	99.4%		+-0.3	12
13	Gold Coast	11	12	–	99.1%		+-0.1	13
14	Melbourne	11	12	–	98.5%		+0.0	14
15	Adelaide	8	14	1	99.1%		+-0.1	15
16	West Coast	5	18	–	68.1%		+-0.0	16
17	North Melbourne	3	20	–	63.5%		+-0.0	17
18	Richmond	2	21	–	63.7%		+0.0	18

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2 1 2 1	156	33.35	26.36	72.2%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2 1 1 1	143	33.50	26.52	66.2%
2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2 1 1 1	143	26.77	27.31	66.2%
3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 1	143	24.32	27.08	66.2%
2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2 2 1 1	142	26.14	27.23	65.7%
3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 0 1 0	141	29.77	27.17	65.3%
2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3 0 1 1	141	27.38	27.27	65.3%
s10 3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2 0 1 1	140	30.91	26.70	64.8%
2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2 1 2 1	140	29.73	26.76	64.8%
3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2 1 1 1	140	29.21	26.92	64.8%
2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2 1 1 1	140	27.51	26.79	64.8%
Aggregate 3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1	139	30.19	26.64	64.4%
3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2 2 1	139	28.36	27.23^†2	65.0%
3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1	139	27.41	26.80	64.4%
3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2 0 1 1	139	27.00	27.34	64.4%
1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2 1 2	139	26.60	27.27^†1	64.7%
3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2 0 1 1	139	21.53	28.11	64.4%
3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9	138	32.10	26.50^†13	68.0%
3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2 2 0 1	138	28.01	26.72	63.9%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2 0 2 0	138	27.46	27.20^†1	64.2%
1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2 0	138	26.81	27.44^†4	65.1%
3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 0 2 0	138	25.74	26.85	63.9%
3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1	137	28.92	27.27	63.4%
1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2 2 1	137	17.28	28.44^†1	63.7%
Punters 3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2 0 1 0	136	28.86	26.82	63.0%
3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2 0 1 0	135	27.01	27.27	62.5%
3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2 1 2 1	135	24.63	27.83	62.5%
1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1	135	24.46	27.53	62.5%
3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3 1 2 0	133	28.20	26.76	61.6%
3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3 0 2 0	133	27.48	27.05^†2	62.1%

AFL Prediction & Analysis

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Why Squiggle is down on Richmond

September 18, 2017September 24, 2017

Question via BigFooty:

Looking at the Flagpole at the moment: why is Geelong ranked so much higher than Richmond despite Richmond being ranked ahead of them in both offence and defence?

Because Richmond is in an area of the chart where good teams go to not win premierships.

Over the last twenty years, only three teams have done it from there: Bulldogs 2016, Sydney 2012 and Sydney 2005. All were upsets. Two were huge upsets, part of a series of other upsets.

Meanwhile, it’s been a graveyard for otherwise strong teams who failed to go all the way: Sydney 2016, Sydney 2015, Richmond 2015, Fremantle 2015, Sydney 2014, Fremantle 2014, Fremantle 2013, Sydney 2013, Fremantle 2012, St Kilda 2011, St Kilda 2010, Adelaide 2010, St Kilda 2009, Adelaide 2009, Sydney 2006, Adelaide 2006, Adelaide 2005, Sydney 2004, Geelong 2004, and Carlton 2001. I suppose I should add Sydney 2017 now, too.

Flagpole is different to the regular squiggle algorithm because it’s slanted to favour teams that look like past premiership winners, and not like teams that win games but not flags. That basically means it prefers teams with a strong attack, and dislikes teams that look like they’re being coached by Ross Lyon.

This is all done without any special reasoning; i.e. squiggle offers no theory on why, exactly, defensive specialist teams have done poorly in finals after successful regular-season campaigns. It just notes that they have, and expects the trend to continue. The landscape today may look very different if St Kilda had snagged a couple of flags in 2009 and 2010 and if Fremantle had managed it in 2013. But they didn’t, so this is the historical reality, which Richmond need to overcome.

Squiggle on Finals Week 1

September 14, 2017September 15, 2017

a.k.a. “Richmond goes wheeee!”

Throughout the season, the squiggle refused to rate Richmond any higher than a somewhat-above-average team. Now there are only six teams left, the Tigers are rated 3rd, i.e. still just on the better side of average. But they made a big move after holding Geelong to only 40 points, essentially pulling level with Adelaide in terms of raw form.

That’s still not enough for a flag, because squiggle respects the historical fact that attacking teams have outperformed defensive teams when it counts over the last two decades. So while the Tigers have a dream run to the Grand Final, avoiding both top teams and hosting an interstate opponent for a prelim, squiggle doubts they can contain the scoring power of Adelaide or Sydney if they get there.

Nevertheless, the Tigers are certainly close enough to give it a shake, which is just about the most exciting thing I’ve experienced in my entire football-following life. So that’s something.

There’s not a whole lot to say about Adelaide v GWS or Sydney v Essendon, both of which played out to expectation.

But Port v West Coast! Once again, the Power failed to knock off a well-rated opponent, although only just, in the cruelest possible way. Taking an 8 scoring shot advantage and turning it into 2 fewer goals and 10 more behinds is going to sink any team.

Despite all the evidence Port has offered to the contrary, there’s still reason to believe they’re a very good team, and if they can avoid self-immolating over the off-season, they could follow in the footsteps of Sydney 2015, who kicked themselves out of their first final against Fremantle (7.18 to 10.9), then rebounded the next year to win the minor premiership and contest the Grand Final. Port’s stumbles in 2017 have been absurd, dramatic and memorable, so it’s easy to forget they annihilated the bottom tier of the competition, beat most of the middle tier, and weren’t too far off the rest, while recording wins over Sydney and West Coast.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are lurking just close enough to be dangerous. All year, they’ve been thereabouts, competitive in practically every game, including those against everyone they have to beat for the flag. They are rightly underdogs, but having landed on the soft side of the draw, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that the Eagles could defeat the Giants, who they only lost to by 8 points earlier this year, then Richmond, who they lost to by 11, and then take on Sydney or Adelaide, both of whom they’ve beaten.

An Eagles flag would be mind-boggling, given they were unlikely even to make finals a few rounds ago. In another year, I’d say it was fanciful, because normally we have at least one truly dominant team plus a tradition of rested Qualifying Final winners beating up Semi-Finalists. But this year, our top two in Adelaide and Sydney haven’t created as much separation from the field, you only have to beat one of them (unless you’re Geelong), and there’s the unknown quantity of the pre-finals bye in play. So almost anything is within the realms of possibility.

On flagpole, it’s bombs away and lights out!

Richmond squeak into 3rd even with the heavily defensive game plan that Flagpole abhors. And Geelong are still rated pretty well, even though in the real world everyone has concluded that they are the worst football team to ever play the game and who will win that Adelaide v Sydney prelim.

Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans

There’s a long history, of course, of people overrating Elimination Final winners and underrating Qualifying Final losers. But it’s still hard to see Sydney dropping this one: They’re a premiership favourite who finished much lower on the ladder than their form suggested, while the Cats made top 4 on the back of a few close wins and didn’t fire a shot against the Tigers.

GWS Giants vs West Coast Eagles

This one is harder to pick, with neither team having stood out over the season, but both also refusing to go away. In a neutral venue, squiggle would pick the Eagles, but only just; in NSW, it gives it to the Giants.

I’m just going to stare at that for a while now. I basically made that Squiggle Doors function just so I would have an excuse to imagine Richmond Grand Finals in alternate universes. Now there might be one in this one! That’s even better.

By the way, I would also like to take this moment to enjoy when hardly anybody has started hating Richmond crowds yet. I know that’s coming, because Richmond crowds when the Tigers are on the verge of success are the fucking worst. Not for me. They’re fine for me, because I’m wearing yellow and black. But for other teams’ supporters. I didn’t see anything bad at the Geelong game, but I’ve been to every final of the last five years, and they bring out plenty of mentally damaged individuals who have been psychologically broken by the last 35 years of heartache and now clearly believe they are the plaything of a malevolent deity who can only be banished by a spray of alcohol-fueled insults. If we make a Grand Final, it’s going to be so ugly. I mean win or lose, either way, there is going to be some shit on display. So it’s nice to get in before that.

Discuss on BigFooty!

Models Leaderboard After Home & Away

September 11, 2017April 3, 2018

2017 has been a rough year for tipping, even tougher than 2016, which itself was a wake-up call after the lovely, predictable Hawthorn dynasty.

Sadly, none of the models managed to outperform the bookies in tipping winners head-to-head during the Home & Away season, nor in terms of probabilistic Bits.

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
Punters 4 8 4 7 7 6 3 5 5 7 4 4 3 7 5 5 7 6 6 9 8 7 5	132	22.1970		66.7%
PlusSixOne 5 8 4 7 6 6 3 5 6 7 3 3 2 8 5 7 7 5 6 5 8 7 6	129	17.9055	28.89	65.2%
5 9 4 6 7 6 3 5 4 7 4 3 2 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 6 6 7	128	17.5804		64.6%
3 8 5 6 7 7 4 5 4 7 4 1 3 6 4 6 8 7 7 8 6 6 6	128	16.3202	28.87	64.6%
5 7 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 7 3 2 3 7 3 5 7 5 7 7 7 7 7	128	15.4157	30.11	64.6%
Aggregate 5 8 4 6 7 6 3 5 5 7 3 3 2 6 4 5 7 6 7 8 7 6 5	125	20.1305	28.92	63.1%
5 7 5 6 6 6 3 5 5 7 3 3 3 6 4 6 7 6 6 7 7 6 6	125	16.5200	29.03	63.1%
4 7 4 6 7 6 3 5 5 7 4 3 2 6 3 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 5	123	18.6520	28.73	62.1%
5 8 5 5 5 6 3 5 5 8 4 2 2 7 3 6 7 6 6 7 6 5 6	122	17.0455	29.79	61.6%

A particularly rough year for Squiggle’s in-house tipping algorithm, which came in dead last and didn’t deserve to be any higher. But very credible performances elsewhere, especially from Plus Six One (for the second year in a row), and it’s worth noting The Arc‘s chart-topping Mean Average Error in a year when the line-ball games didn’t fall their way.

I was curious this year to see what kind of performance the Aggregate would have, where it represents a simple average of everyone else’s tips. Would there be some kind of wisdom of the crowds effect, where it could outperform most of the individual models that provided its inputs? Well, kind of: It landed mid-table in terms of tips and MAE, but with more Bits than all models. So there could be something there.

Apologies for finals tipping being a little shaky at the moment: Apparently everyone (including Squiggle) uses different formatting for posting their finals tips, and squiggle-bot needs to learn how to parse it.

Finals Week 1 Preview

September 7, 2017

There’s been a clear top 2 for a while, and it’s Adelaide and Sydney, who are the first and sixth teams on the ladder. If it were one year ago, everyone would be writing Sydney off, as no team had ever come from outside the top 4 to make the Grand Final, let alone win it. But the Bulldogs changed that, and then spent this season dropping hints that it wasn’t because they had become a superstar team without anyone noticing.

So it’s all bets off, as far as I’m concerned, and current form is king.

Adelaide Crows v GWS Giants

The Crows started the year with a series of high-scoring matches, propelling them vertically up the chart. Then before you could say “premiership favourite,” they were humiliated in consecutive matches by a Spoonbowl contestant and a team that didn’t want to play finals if it meant having to beat Collingwood.

Since then, though, Adelaide have toughened up defensively while retaining most of their attacking power.

The Giants began the year as the second-ranked team and fell as injury bit. They could easily have finished outside the top 4, but managed to scrounge together enough close wins and draws to give themselves a straight shot at a Grand Final. It’s been that sort of year for GWS, with few outstanding performances and plenty of shaky ones that haven’t cost them.

Geelong Cats v Richmond Tigers

We need to zoom out a bit further for this one, because Richmond started the year ranked as a bottom 6 team. That means that not only did they have a bad 2016, but they didn’t show anything toward the end of the year that suggested a rise was on the cards, either. But rise they did, becoming a low-scoring but defensively formidable team. And in the final two games, they showed some attacking power as well.

The Cats are in a similar area, but have trod a far more meandering path, with a season that was never too good nor too bad for too long. They’ve demolished poor teams and recorded solid wins over good ones, but also had a raft of eyebrow-raising performances, such as losing to Gold Coast and squeaking home against Fremantle and North Melbourne. As such, it’s hard to draw a steady bead on the Cats, or find anything like a trend.

Sydney Swans v Essendon Bombers

Hard to say which line is more extraordinary: Essendon’s emergence from the absolute bottom to reach finals, or Sydney’s tale of a season in two parts. The Swans were never quite as out of form as their ladder position of 16th at the mid-season bye suggested, but there’s a clear inflection point here, with an early slide arrested and then dismissed as if it never happened. Since Round 7, the Swans have become once again a completely typical Sydney side, of the kind that made the Grand Final in 2014 & 2016 and won it in 2012. There’s an alluring discipline about them, with no really head-scratching performances after those first 6 rounds.

Essendon similarly took 7 rounds to really get going, notwithstanding their emotion-charged Round 1 win over the Hawks. They’ve made finals on the back of a mid-season stretch that saw them account for Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide, and St Kilda, during which time they also didn’t fall too short of Sydney, GWS, and Richmond. The last month has been shakier, though, with the Bombers losing comprehensively to Adelaide and the Bulldogs, while not showing terribly much against Gold Coast and Fremantle.

Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles

All year the Eagles have delivered roughly what you would expect: sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less, but never too far beyond expectation. They stand in stark contrast to Port Adelaide, who, when they’re on, are very, very on. When they’re off, Port are still usually competitive, but it’s that gap between their regular setting and the turbo charge switch they flip against lower sides in Gold Coast, Fremantle, Brisbane, and Carlton that has earned them the “flat track bully” moniker.

That’s probably undeserved, even though they haven’t proved it yet. The Power have been a candidate for Top Four for most of the year, holding the league’s second-best percentage, while the Eagles have spent it skirting the fringes of the Eight. If the results of other games had gone only slightly differently, Port could easily be playing a Qualifying Final this weekend with the Eagles players on holiday.

Squiggle on Round 23

August 29, 2017April 3, 2018

Animated!

You know I don’t believe in the whole idea of Flat Track Bullies, but god damn, Port Adelaide, you are making it difficult. The Power grew ten feet tall upon spotting a spindly, bedraggled Gold Coast, and proceeded to pound the snot out of them, while periodically stopping to flex and grin at nearby girls, and slicking back their hair with a comb. God damn you, Port Adelaide. That’s so uncool.

When Sydney curb-stomped their bottom-4 opponent, they had a little class. They were positively gentlemanly in allowing Carlton to kick 8.9, compared to the Power’s nipple-cripple of the Suns that permitted just 3.2 20.

Port Adelaide’s performance was mainly impressive for its miserliness, since scoring 135 against Gold Coast isn’t that special. It’s only 30 points more than the average team puts past the Suns. As such, the Power go shoooooting off to the right, but don’t climb much vertically. The Swans, on the other hand, see mainly vertical gains after scoring 138 against a significantly better defense.

Gold Coast finish the year as the worst-ranked team, seeing off a challenge from Fremantle.

The Cats and Tigers both had impressive wins. After some accurate goal-shooting against the Saints, Richmond are almost starting to look like a normal team, i.e. one that can score. In fact, the team that Richmond most resembles right now is Geelong, so it’s fitting that they get to Highlander it in a Qualifying Final.

I hope you appreciated my cool detachment in that previous paragraph. I’m like, sure, I write about Richmond making a QF all the time. No biggie. You can’t even tell I have my legs crossed like super tight.

And now for Melbourne. I take no joy in Melbourne. It’s a bit surprising because I was really pissed at Melbourne after the whole Jordan McMahon game thing. But no, apparently I have no more schadenfreude to give. This one sucks, Melbourne. Here is the tragedy of Melbourne in tower form:

And on Flagpole:

Is now a good time to mention that Squiggle was tipping a Swans v Adelaide Grand Final before the start of the year? I feel like yes.

Still no freaking love for the Tigers.

Last year, Squiggle had an impressive 67% hit rate in tipping finals that didn’t involve the Western Bulldogs. After including the Dogs, it was a bit less impressive, going 3-6 (33%). But 2016 was a strange year; the home (higher-placed) team has won finals regularly since 2000, going at about 72%. So you’re normally pretty safe backing them.

Finals previews to come sometime!

Squiggle on Round 22

August 21, 2017April 3, 2018

The most exciting thing that happened this round was the stars aligning for North Melbourne to play Brisbane for last place on the ladder. As such, today’s commentary will be heavily Spoonbowl-tilted.

Look at those two teams, heading for each other like they knew this day was coming. It’s a club on the rise vs a club that rose to half-mast in the first 10 rounds before deciding it was all too hard:

Let’s also take a moment to appreciate that these aren’t the two worst teams. The worst teams are Fremantle and Gold Coast. A Spoonbowl involving Fremantle and Gold Coast would be genuinely terrible. What Brisbane and North Melbourne offer us, by contrast, is a real chance of a decent game. You know how people are always suggesting insane changes to the finals, like wildcard playoffs between 9th to 12th: Spoonbowl 2017 offers a glimpse into that world, where deeply flawed but not completely inept teams battle for something not really that great but still a lot better than the alternative. That is Spoonbowl 2017.

North Melbourne don’t deserve the wooden spoon: For the first half of the season, they were about as good as Melbourne is now, but without winning any games. In the first five rounds, they fell 1 point short of Geelong, 3 points short of the Bulldogs, and got done by 5 points in Perth by the Dockers. In fact, in four games against the Dogs & Dockers this year, North Melbourne have managed to lose the lot by a combined total of 13 points. They have a percentage of 84.8, which is better than four other teams, and not far off Hawthorn (89.8).

Brisbane don’t deserve the spoon, either. Their second half of the year has had a clear upward trajectory, which defies the basic concept, which is that spoons are for terrible teams in terrible situations with no future so sit down and have a cry and a spoon. Other teams have tried to mess with this in the past, by “strategically” “moving” their “players” at “key moments” in order to “fucking cheat,” but Brisbane is the lighter side of that: a side on the rise that’s genuinely tried all year.

Remember that neither of these teams care a whole lot about defending, and it will be glorious. It will be a beautiful, amazing game.

Tip: Brisbane 110 – 104 North Melbourne

In other news:

Richmond finally generated a decent score, albeit against an indecent team. The Tigers are a little flattered by their accuracy in kicking 25.5, and the chart can’t adequately capture the way Fremantle players spent the second half jogging half-heartedly around the field like they were thinking about the load of laundry they had to do when they got home and whether they needed to stop off for milk. Still, it was a great performance by the Tigers, and made even clearer their year-long improvement.

We didn’t learn a whole lot from Adelaide vs Sydney, other than that it was about as competitive as expected. The Crows shouldn’t be too unhappy with that game, which they lost only due to some wayward goalkicking.

Essendon should be unable to cock up a finals berth from here, since they host the Dockers next week. And the current top 4 and top 8 will more likely remain unchanged. But there’s a crazy raft of possible scenarios on offer:

Richmond have a big chance of finishing 3rd (if they defeat St Kilda) and 6th (if they don’t). They are much less likely to finish 4th or 5th, because Port and Sydney have highly winnable games and will overtake them.

Similary, North Melbourne will probably finish 15th if they win Spoonbowl 2017 and 18th if they don’t.

If Melbourne and Essendon don’t claim 7th and 8th, the Eagles are most likely to slip in there, but it’s still possible in a benevolent universe for the Bulldogs and Saints.

Only the Giants can take top spot from Adelaide, and this scenario requires them to defeat Geelong at Kardinia while the Crows do a repeat of 2016 and drop their final game to West Coast.

The top 6 cannot change; that is, no-one currently lower than 6th can break into it, and none of the top 6 can fall out of it.

Similarly, the block of teams currently 7th to 11th is fixed, with only the order within that block still to be decided.

Here’s an animated tower, which shows Carlton’s last-minute leap to safety, and the final snuffing of Hawthorn:

Flagpole this week is mostly notable for Richmond’s little jump and some new clarity around who’s likely to play finals:

Discuss on BigFooty!

The Quality and Quantity of Shots Created by Each Club

August 11, 2017April 3, 2018

A super interesting and insightful article on shot generation and shot quality from Figuring Footy:

GWS have been the polar opposite of the Dees in regard to shot quality. The Giants have taken, on average, the toughest shots of any team this year. This is usually a high variance strategy, but the Giants have managed to get through some close games (relatively) unscathed, benefiting greatly from the sublime kicking skills of their young talent.

Source: The Quality and Quantity of Shots Created by Each Club – Figuring Footy

What Do Adelaide and Brisbane Have In Common?

August 11, 2017August 11, 2017

Blowouts! They both get involved in a lot of blowouts. Matter of Stats takes a delightfully graphic look back over the decades to illustrate how 2017 compares in terms of scoring and evenness:

The 2017 season has been a close one, with any team a genuine chance of dominating and maybe even toppling any other team on a given day. More than once, a team near the foot of the competition ladder has defeated a team near the top, and we sit here at the end of Round 20 with the final 8 far

Source: How Close Has the 2017 Season Been? — Matter of Stats

Squiggle on Round 20

August 7, 2017April 3, 2018

That was a big round of football!

Sometimes a round is full of crucial matches and they turn out to be close games, so, sure, they’re entertaining, but you don’t learn a whole lot about either team, other than that they’re evenly matched.

Then you have rounds like this one!

Adelaide firmed into a solid, erect position, thrusting firmly into the open, inviting premiership zone. That’s quite a trajectory you’ve made there, Adelaide. There’s a real cockiness about it. It came about after a graphic display against the Power, the Crows taking a liking to the wet, slippery conditions and dominating, especially the behinds (18.22 to 7.4).

Less phallically, Sydney demolished Geelong to move into that part of the chart I should really just go ahead and name THE SYDNEY AREA, because the last season they didn’t spend time there was 2010. No-one else wants to live there, Sydney. It’s really just you and whoever Ross Lyon was coaching at the time. But you keep coming back, year after year.

The week belonged to those two teams, who put a lot of space between them and the rest of the field.

But it was also terrific for Richmond! In fact, I now think Richmond is going to win the flag. This is not supported at all by squiggle. It’s more of a vibe. I’ll explain more below.

It was an interesting week if you’re on Scoring Shot Watch. Essendon’s victory over Carlton wasn’t so narrow (11.18 to 11.10), Collingwood’s over North wasn’t so great (16.15 to 7.15), and GWS really destroyed Melbourne (14.13 to 10.2). Fremantle put away Gold Coast pretty handily, too (12.18 to 10.7).

Gold Coast have had a pretty ordinary second half to the year after a promising start. So have North Melbourne, who were far more competitive a few months ago, even though they weren’t winning games.

And on the chart, Carlton and Freo became one. Think about that for a moment. It’s horrible, isn’t it. There is literally nothing good about that for anyone.

This time of year, the Season Predictor becomes less helpful, because with so few matches remaining, you can just about figure things out yourself. Also it averages out a team’s chances of winning each match, which works much better over the long-term than just three games.

But Tower of Power is always interesting! Lots of movement this week:

Most noticeable is Adelaide turning into a banner ad in the #1 spot. It would take an Adelaide-grade implosion for them to miss from here. Of course, if anyone can do an Adelaide-grade implosion, it’s Adelaide. But top spot is almost certainly theirs.

The trapdoor opened up beneath Geelong, but with games against Richmond (at Kardinia), North, and GWS, they still have a pretty good path to 2nd. And with a 1.5 win break over 5th, things would have to go horribly wrong for them to miss the top 4.

Since Geelong, GWS and Richmond play each other in the remaining three rounds, the effect of each result is magnified. So right now those three teams have a pretty even chance of finishing 2nd, and it will go to whichever of them manages to stand up.

The desolation of Port Adelaide left a lot of room for Sydney and Richmond to move into.

And the Bulldogs still have a remarkable array of plausible finishes! They have a 5% chance or better in every slot from 4th (where Geelong lose a lot) to 11th.

On Flagpole, it’s good night to the Hawks:

And otherwise the usual story. Adelaide are surrounded by premiership cups on the main chart; they are going to be 1st.

Now: Why Richmond will win the flag!

Obviously I’m 100% only writing this because I’m a Richmond supporter. Squiggle doesn’t foresee good things for Richmond in the finals. But this section applies to other teams as well.

It’s all about the killer bye. The bye is bad, for mysterious reasons, and has always been bad, going back decades. More specifically, it’s bad for teams that had a bye last week when their opponent didn’t. There is plenty of data on this: Those teams underperform.

The only mystery has been why the bye becomes good when you get one thanks to a qualifying final victory. In those cases, the bye works like it’s supposed to, and they win repeatedly and reliably.

Until last year, when we had a pre-finals bye for the first time, and after winning Qualifying Finals, Geelong and GWS both lost. Instead, the Bulldogs won the flag from 7th. Now we all know that had never been done before, which is remarkable enough in itself. But what makes it amazing, and a little suspicious, is that no-one came close before.

If the Final Eight system offers a reasonable chance for 7th to win the flag, you would expect, at some point this century, a team to have at least made the Grand Final from 5th or 6th. Not win the premiership; just make the GF. But nope.

For 16 years, we had a near-perfect statistical distribution where the team that finished 1st was most likely to make the GF and win the flag, then the team that finished 2nd was, then 3rd, and then 4th could make the GF sometimes but never win the flag. And 5th-8th never made the GF.

Then in 2016, 7th wins the flag!

It may well be that 2016 was just one of those years, and the Bulldogs one of those teams, and it’ll never happen again. But another explanation is that this answers the mystery of why the Qualifying Final winner bye was good: It was only because it came right at the very end of the year, when all teams were exhausted, which caused the restorative benefits to outweigh the usual negative effect. But since the AFL introduced a pre-finals bye last year, that benefit vanished, and all that’s left is the usual killer bye, where teams that had a week off do worse against teams that didn’t.

This makes me far less certain that it’s necessary to (a) finish top 4 and (b) win a qualifying final to take out the premiership. The fact that the Bulldogs did it last year makes it less certain, and the possibility that it’s due to the pre-finals bye makes it doubly uncertain. It may even be bad to finish top 4 and win a qualifying final.

If so, it’s a far more open race to the flag than anyone thinks. A team like Sydney, in fine form but up against it to make the top 4, has a perfect run to the flag. A team like Richmond, who might finish 4th but be unable to beat 1st in a Qualifying Final, has a much better shot at redemption than history would suggest. And a team like the Bulldogs, or Essendon, who in previous years would be dismissed as just making up the numbers, can actually go all the way if only they find form at the right time.

The only certainty of the finals campaign this year may be that the form team wins no matter where they placed on the ladder.

That aside, the other reason why I think Richmond will win the flag is that statistical analysis like squiggle is only about what’s most likely to happen. Unlikely things happen all the time. They happen all the time in football. I’ve followed the Tigers my whole life and I wasn’t paying much attention to football the last time we were anything like a flag threat, so I don’t want to spoil this one with an over-reliance on what stats say usually tends to happen. I’m going to roll with the fact that anything might.

Discuss on BigFooty!