LEADERBOARD

After 7 games of Round 7, 2024.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Elo Predicts!

3 7 7 5 9 4 5 6

46 9.62 23.33 75.4%
FMI

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7

45 9.38 23.84 73.8%
Hyperion

1 7 7 4 9 4 5 7

44 11.06 23.39 72.1%
Live Ladders

3 8 7 4 8 4 3 7

44 9.45 24.10 72.1%
AFLalytics

3 7 6 4 8 4 5 7

44 9.40 24.77 72.1%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 5

43 11.74 23.48 70.5%
Punters

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 6

43 9.67 23.83 70.5%
s10

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 7

43 9.42 24.28 70.5%
Aggregate

3 6 6 4 9 4 5 6

43 8.98 24.18 70.5%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 6 4 9 4 5 6

43 7.22 24.75 70.5%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 4 8 4 5 7

43 6.79 25.74 70.5%
Winnable

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 5

42 9.24 24.38 68.9%
What Snoo Thinks

3 6 6 5 8 4 4 6

42 8.18 24.75 68.9%
Cheap Stats

1 7 6 4 9 4 5 6

42 8.09 24.95 68.9%
Matter of Stats

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 6

42 7.74 24.96 68.9%
AFL Lab

3 7 6 4 9 3 4 6

42 6.46 24.11 68.9%
Data by Josh

3 7 6 4 6 4 4 7

41 11.76 24.74 67.2%
The Cruncher

3 6 6 4 8 4 4 6

41 9.49 24.67 67.2%
Graft

2 6 6 4 9 4 4 6

41 8.45 24.74 67.2%
Massey Ratings

2 7 8 4 7 4 3 6

41 7.82 24.60 67.2%
The Wooden Finger

3 5 6 5 9 4 3 6

41 6.79 25.38 67.2%
ZaphBot

3 5 6 6 8 4 4 5

41 6.77 24.54 67.2%
Squiggle

2 6 6 4 7 4 4 7

40 8.79 24.34 65.6%
Glicko Ratings

3 6 6 4 7 4 4 6

40 8.73 24.97 65.6%
Drop Kick Data

3 6 6 3 8 4 4 6

40 8.27 24.78 65.6%
The Footycast

3 6 6 4 9 4 3 5

40 7.18 24.53 65.6%
footycharts

3 7 5 4 8 4 4 5

40 6.54 25.18 65.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 6 4 8 4 4 5

40 4.54 25.75 65.6%
PlusSixOne

1 7 6 5 5 4 4 7

39 4.33 26.89 63.9%
Stattraction

1 5 6 4 9 4 3 6

38 6.12 25.93 62.3%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Elo Predicts! 71% 0.1 16.9 29% -1.5 29.7 71% -0.0 13.0 57% -0.3 27.3 57% -0.2 22.4 57% -0.5 26.3 86% 1.8 14.4 100% 2.1 27.0 100% 2.6 25.3 100% 2.8 22.2 86% 1.2 21.9 100% 4.7 19.9 100% 2.4 20.6 71% -0.0 25.1 71% 0.7 18.6 67% 1.3 24.0 67% 1.1 36.8 71% 1.0 31.0
FMI 57% -0.6 20.7 29% -0.8 32.3 71% 0.5 12.7 57% -0.3 31.9 57% -0.5 27.0 71% -0.7 26.4 71% 1.5 15.3 100% 2.0 20.3 100% 3.0 20.9 100% 2.6 21.2 71% 1.0 21.1 100% 4.3 19.7 86% 2.5 21.6 71% 0.3 24.1 71% 0.7 21.4 67% 1.4 26.0 67% 0.8 39.8 86% 1.2 28.3
Hyperion 86% 0.3 15.4 29% -1.3 32.1 71% -0.6 16.1 43% -1.1 31.6 71% 0.9 18.1 71% 0.6 21.6 86% 2.6 11.0 83% 1.9 24.8 86% 2.7 25.1 100% 3.0 23.2 71% 1.3 23.9 100% 5.0 21.0 86% 2.3 22.3 57% -0.0 27.0 57% 0.9 20.6 67% 0.9 21.8 67% 1.3 34.2 71% 1.5 32.7
Live Ladders 43% -1.0 21.1 43% -0.6 30.9 71% -0.1 15.7 57% -0.2 24.1 57% -0.4 22.0 86% 0.5 23.0 71% 0.7 20.1 100% 1.8 27.5 100% 3.0 22.0 100% 2.2 26.0 57% 0.5 26.4 100% 4.5 25.0 71% 2.2 22.3 71% 0.9 21.6 71% 1.2 17.1 67% 1.1 21.2 67% 2.0 33.5 71% 0.6 35.9
AFLalytics 57% -0.6 21.5 43% -1.2 33.2 71% -0.3 14.6 57% -0.4 26.8 43% -0.4 22.9 86% 0.5 24.0 57% 0.6 23.4 100% 2.3 26.0 100% 3.1 23.1 83% 2.0 29.0 71% 0.5 25.7 100% 4.3 28.0 86% 2.9 21.4 71% 0.6 20.3 71% 1.3 19.7 67% 1.5 21.4 67% 1.7 32.2 71% 0.6 34.0
Wheelo Ratings 43% -0.6 19.5 29% -1.3 32.2 71% -0.0 11.8 57% -0.8 29.3 57% -0.3 22.9 57% 0.1 25.7 71% 1.5 18.3 100% 2.9 22.6 86% 3.1 23.2 83% 2.5 27.3 71% 1.1 23.0 100% 5.6 19.2 86% 3.4 20.4 71% 0.9 18.4 86% 1.9 18.9 67% 1.0 25.3 67% 1.6 33.0 71% 0.7 33.7
Punters 57% -0.9 19.5 14% -2.1 35.3 71% -0.5 13.8 57% -0.6 28.6 57% -0.3 21.4 71% -0.3 26.4 71% 0.9 19.4 100% 2.7 22.5 86% 3.2 21.3 100% 2.9 25.9 71% 1.0 22.2 100% 5.0 20.6 86% 3.0 19.0 71% 0.9 21.2 57% 1.7 22.0 67% 0.7 25.6 67% 1.4 31.2 71% 0.6 34.2
s10 57% -0.7 20.4 29% -1.2 34.0 71% 0.1 13.6 57% -0.3 27.7 43% -0.1 21.8 71% -0.2 26.4 57% 0.8 20.1 100% 1.9 25.5 100% 3.0 21.8 83% 2.2 26.6 71% 0.8 24.1 100% 4.6 24.1 86% 2.7 22.2 71% 0.5 21.5 71% 1.3 18.8 67% 1.2 23.3 67% 1.5 33.4 71% 0.7 33.3
Aggregate 57% -0.7 20.6 29% -1.1 32.9 71% 0.1 14.1 57% -0.3 27.3 43% -0.4 23.1 57% -0.2 25.7 71% 1.0 19.2 100% 1.9 26.4 100% 2.9 22.1 83% 2.1 27.4 71% 0.9 23.9 100% 4.4 24.2 86% 2.7 20.4 71% 0.4 22.0 71% 1.2 18.1 67% 1.2 22.5 67% 1.3 33.2 71% 0.6 34.1
Don't Blame the Data 57% -0.8 20.9 29% -1.8 34.6 71% -0.4 14.0 57% -1.0 28.2 57% -0.1 21.3 57% -0.1 27.1 71% 1.1 17.8 100% 1.4 29.3 100% 2.2 25.1 100% 2.2 25.6 57% 0.7 24.4 100% 4.1 23.7 86% 2.6 22.7 71% 0.3 21.9 71% 1.0 17.5 50% 1.1 21.5 67% 1.4 35.4 71% 0.4 36.3
AFL Scorigami 57% -1.2 20.9 43% -1.5 33.8 71% -0.3 15.8 57% -0.3 24.3 43% -1.5 25.3 86% 0.1 22.5 57% 0.1 22.9 100% 2.0 28.5 100% 3.4 22.2 83% 1.3 33.1 71% 0.9 25.5 100% 3.5 35.7 71% 2.2 23.8 57% 0.9 21.4 71% 0.7 17.0 67% 1.5 19.1 67% 1.3 36.4 71% 0.3 37.2
Winnable 57% -1.0 20.8 29% -1.6 34.9 71% 0.4 12.8 57% -0.4 26.2 43% -0.6 24.4 71% 0.4 23.8 71% 0.9 20.8 100% 1.9 26.2 86% 2.8 22.9 83% 1.5 30.5 71% 0.9 24.5 100% 5.0 24.5 86% 2.6 20.3 71% 0.7 20.5 57% 1.2 16.7 67% 1.5 21.6 67% 1.6 33.4 57% 0.6 36.2
What Snoo Thinks 43% -1.1 21.4 43% -0.8 31.7 57% -0.5 15.7 57% -0.8 26.7 43% -0.8 24.3 86% 0.1 24.3 43% 0.4 22.7 83% 1.2 31.0 100% 3.4 22.9 83% 1.6 28.8 86% 1.8 20.4 100% 4.5 28.1 100% 2.9 19.1 71% 0.4 21.0 57% 1.0 18.7 67% 1.1 23.0 67% 1.6 33.2 57% 0.6 35.1
Cheap Stats 57% 0.1 18.4 43% -0.8 33.4 86% 0.7 13.3 43% -0.9 31.7 57% -0.2 22.7 57% -0.7 26.0 71% 1.3 18.1 83% 1.3 26.2 86% 2.5 22.1 100% 2.5 22.8 57% 0.6 25.4 100% 4.5 21.0 86% 2.1 23.0 57% -0.0 27.6 71% 1.0 22.0 50% 0.4 26.2 67% 1.1 35.8 71% 0.7 34.9
Matter of Stats 57% -1.2 22.1 29% -2.0 35.8 71% -0.6 16.5 57% -0.7 27.0 43% -0.5 23.3 57% -0.2 26.3 57% -0.1 23.5 100% 2.4 23.9 100% 3.7 21.4 83% 1.7 28.3 71% 1.1 22.6 100% 4.5 26.5 86% 2.9 21.0 71% 0.3 21.1 71% 1.1 19.9 67% 1.1 22.4 67% 1.4 33.6 57% 0.5 35.1
AFL Lab 43% -1.0 21.7 29% -2.4 37.2 71% 0.9 9.0 57% -0.3 27.0 57% -0.8 21.7 86% -0.1 27.4 71% 0.4 20.7 83% 1.1 30.8 71% 1.9 18.9 100% 2.1 23.7 71% -0.5 28.1 100% 4.5 19.8 86% 2.5 26.0 71% 0.5 21.0 43% 0.7 18.7 67% 1.6 20.6 67% 1.2 30.2 71% 0.6 32.6
Data by Josh 14% -1.5 23.0 43% -0.3 30.0 43% -0.0 17.3 71% 0.5 24.0 57% -0.1 22.0 57% 0.1 25.7 57% -0.4 24.4 83% 2.4 22.8 86% 3.6 23.9 83% 1.7 30.7 57% 0.6 25.7 100% 5.0 26.6 86% 2.8 24.3 71% 1.6 22.9 86% 2.3 20.0 83% 1.8 19.3 67% 2.4 30.7 71% 0.9 32.7
The Cruncher 43% -1.3 21.3 29% -0.6 30.4 57% 0.2 12.8 57% -0.5 26.5 57% -0.3 22.7 43% -0.9 28.2 57% 1.0 21.2 100% 2.4 24.2 86% 3.5 22.3 83% 2.3 27.6 71% 0.7 25.1 100% 4.7 25.5 86% 3.0 21.9 71% -0.3 23.3 86% 1.9 21.1 67% 1.5 23.7 67% 1.3 32.9 57% 0.4 34.7
Graft 43% -0.7 21.9 29% -1.5 36.0 71% 0.5 11.9 43% -0.4 32.3 57% 0.2 21.7 57% -0.9 30.9 71% 1.3 15.1 83% 1.7 23.2 86% 2.3 22.1 100% 3.0 19.5 71% 0.9 21.1 100% 4.0 20.9 86% 2.5 26.4 71% 0.2 24.7 57% 0.5 20.1 67% 1.4 26.3 67% 0.8 42.8 57% 1.1 30.1
Massey Ratings 71% -0.2 17.2 29% -0.3 29.4 57% 0.1 15.5 43% -0.0 27.4 57% -0.8 22.9 43% -0.9 24.4 86% 2.5 14.4 100% 1.5 29.8 86% 2.6 23.5 100% 2.5 29.0 71% 1.0 24.2 100% 4.4 24.5 71% 2.1 20.6 57% -1.0 28.6 57% 0.9 18.5 67% 1.4 22.2 67% -0.0 37.0 57% -0.0 36.5
The Wooden Finger 43% -1.8 24.1 29% -1.2 32.1 43% 0.4 15.6 57% -0.4 28.9 43% -3.0 34.0 71% -1.3 26.6 57% 0.9 19.4 83% 2.1 23.8 86% 3.9 18.6 83% 2.1 27.2 86% 1.4 20.6 100% 4.9 23.3 100% 3.1 19.0 71% 0.5 24.6 57% 0.3 23.3 67% 1.2 29.7 67% 0.3 36.7 71% 0.4 31.7
ZaphBot 43% -2.7 28.4 57% 0.6 25.4 43% 0.2 15.3 71% 0.8 25.0 43% -2.2 30.1 57% -0.4 25.3 57% 0.6 21.6 83% 1.6 25.8 100% 3.0 20.0 67% 1.0 36.3 71% 0.8 25.1 86% 2.9 32.0 100% 2.9 13.1 71% 0.5 22.9 71% 0.8 17.1 67% 1.2 21.5 67% 1.7 25.5 57% 0.2 32.7
Squiggle 43% -0.6 19.3 29% -1.2 34.8 57% -0.3 14.9 57% -0.1 26.1 57% -0.1 22.2 57% -0.4 25.8 57% 1.2 19.1 83% 1.1 30.9 100% 2.7 22.0 100% 2.1 28.1 57% 1.4 20.9 100% 4.0 29.1 86% 2.8 18.5 71% 0.3 21.0 57% 1.3 16.9 50% 0.6 26.8 67% 1.9 31.8 57% 0.9 32.8
Glicko Ratings 43% -1.3 22.2 29% -1.3 32.9 57% -0.7 15.2 57% -0.1 25.0 57% 0.2 20.3 43% -0.1 26.9 57% 0.2 23.2 100% 2.3 24.2 86% 3.7 22.2 83% 1.9 29.6 71% 0.7 24.6 100% 4.8 26.9 86% 3.1 22.4 57% -0.5 23.8 71% 1.3 21.1 67% 1.2 23.3 67% 1.6 32.6 57% 0.5 34.5
Drop Kick Data 43% -1.1 21.9 29% -0.9 31.7 57% 0.1 13.7 57% -0.0 26.1 43% -0.7 24.3 43% -0.8 28.4 57% 0.4 20.3 100% 2.1 24.5 86% 3.2 22.3 83% 1.8 30.4 71% 0.8 24.3 100% 4.7 20.8 86% 2.7 22.9 71% 0.4 20.8 71% 1.5 19.1 67% 1.5 21.1 67% 1.3 36.6 57% -0.4 38.8
The Footycast 43% -0.4 18.3 29% -1.4 34.9 57% 0.0 15.6 43% -0.8 27.7 57% -0.0 21.1 57% -0.3 25.5 57% 1.2 18.0 83% 1.0 31.1 100% 2.6 21.3 100% 1.8 27.3 71% 0.7 23.5 100% 4.0 22.9 71% 2.0 21.5 71% 0.3 24.3 57% 0.9 18.7 67% 1.1 23.7 67% 1.1 34.5 57% 0.5 34.2
footycharts 57% -1.5 22.8 29% -1.9 35.2 57% -0.3 15.8 57% -0.4 25.4 43% -1.1 26.8 86% 0.2 23.5 43% 0.0 23.8 83% 1.5 29.2 86% 2.1 23.9 83% 1.8 26.0 71% 1.0 23.7 100% 4.4 24.7 86% 2.9 20.7 71% 0.8 21.0 57% 0.7 18.0 67% 1.2 24.5 67% 1.6 34.5 43% 0.4 35.7
Informed Stats 29% -0.8 21.0 14% -1.1 34.3 57% 0.2 13.0 43% -0.5 28.0 71% -1.1 29.7 43% -3.2 31.4 71% 1.3 17.3 100% 2.0 24.8 57% 2.1 26.1 100% 2.0 27.0 57% 0.8 25.3 100% 4.3 22.9 86% 2.4 23.9 71% -0.6 22.6 86% 1.7 18.4 67% 1.6 20.3 67% -2.0 42.3 71% -0.0 36.9
PlusSixOne 29% -0.5 21.4 43% -0.8 33.7 57% -0.2 15.7 57% -0.2 23.5 57% 0.2 21.3 71% 0.4 22.4 57% 0.5 22.6 67% 0.8 32.8 86% 1.1 29.7 100% 0.9 32.6 57% -0.1 30.1 100% 1.8 42.2 71% 1.4 23.6 43% 0.1 23.6 57% 0.6 13.8 83% 0.9 22.1 67% 1.2 38.8 57% 0.6 36.9
Stattraction 29% -0.7 20.2 29% -1.2 33.7 57% 0.4 14.0 29% -1.2 28.6 43% -1.5 26.3 43% -1.6 28.2 71% 1.4 19.6 83% 1.2 33.2 71% 2.6 26.4 83% 2.3 27.7 71% 1.4 23.6 100% 4.7 26.3 86% 2.7 21.4 71% 0.0 22.3 71% 1.0 18.1 50% 0.3 27.6 67% 0.3 35.4 71% 0.1 37.1