LEADERBOARD

After Round 22, 2020.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Punters

7 5 4 5 8 6 8 7 6 6 7 5 9 7 4 6 5 8 1 2 0 1

117 27.11 22.77 72.2%
Squiggle

7 5 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 7 8 6 8 7 3 6 5 9 2 2 1 0

117 21.49 22.93 72.2%
AFLalytics

7 5 4 6 7 6 5 8 7 6 7 6 9 6 4 6 5 8 2 2 0 0

116 24.70 22.35 71.6%
s10

8 5 3 4 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 9 6 4 6 5 9 2 2 1 0

115 22.14 22.85 71.0%
AFL_GO

6 4 4 4 7 7 5 7 8 7 5 6 9 5 4 6 6 9 2 2 0 0

113 18.42 23.31 69.8%
Matter of Stats

6 5 4 4 5 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 9 6 3 6 5 9 1 2 1 0

112 23.53 23.16 69.1%
Aggregate

7 4 4 4 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 9 5 4 6 5 9 1 2 1 0

112 20.78 23.10 69.1%
Live Ladders

8 6 3 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 9 5 4 6 7 9 2 2 1 0

111 21.74 22.94 68.5%
PlusSixOne

8 5 3 6 7 8 3 5 8 5 8 6 9 6 3 5 3 8 2 2 1 0

111 13.81 23.45 68.5%
Footy Maths Institute

8 5 3 4 6 6 5 7 7 7 6 6 9 6 4 5 6 7 1 2 0 0

110 13.22 25.31 67.9%
Swinburne

8 4 3 5 5 7 5 6 8 6 6 5 8 5 4 5 7 8 1 2 0 0

108 19.31 24.58 66.7%
Graft

7 4 3 4 6 7 5 6 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 5 6 8 0 2 1 0

108 16.38 23.90 66.7%
The Flag

8 4 4 4 3 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 8 3 4 6 6 8 1 2 1 0

107 15.16 24.83 66.0%
AFL Lab

5 4 4 6 4 7 6 4 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 6 6 8 2 2 1 0

107 15.08 24.05 66.0%
Stattraction

7 5 3 4 6 5 6 5 7 6 5 7 8 5 4 5 6 8 0 2 2 0

106 12.59 24.35 65.4%
Massey Ratings

7 3 3 4 3 7 4 1 7 7 6 7 8 7 4 6 3 8 3 2 0 1

101 16.47 23.88 66.4%
The Arc

8 3 3 4 4 6 5

33 -1.66 27.74 53.2%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

MAE is the most reliable measure of a model's accuracy. It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) However, it doesn't matter whether you get the winner right, which makes it somewhat divorced from what people really care about.

Bits is a good compromise between reliability and what people care about, which is tipping winners correctly—especially when you're confident.

Tips is the most common measure, which makes it handy for comparing across comps. And it's what people generally want to know: How many tips did you get right? But it's very easy to get lucky or unlucky in 50/50 games, so it's a poor indicator of future performance.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Punters 76% 4.2 24.2 79% 6.1 21.8 65% 1.0 16.2 68% 1.2 25.2 82% 4.5 17.8 71% 2.8 18.8 76% 4.7 27.8 88% 3.6 24.0 65% -0.4 21.7 59% 1.8 27.2 65% 1.2 23.8 88% 4.9 28.0 84% 5.5 23.7 67% 3.7 20.2 63% 1.8 22.9 59% 1.1 21.0 83% 4.0 19.5 61% 2.6 25.1
Squiggle 82% 4.2 25.5 89% 4.9 20.3 65% 0.5 16.5 63% 0.1 27.9 82% 3.1 16.0 76% 1.2 18.7 71% 4.3 27.9 82% 2.6 24.4 65% -1.2 23.1 65% 1.2 27.5 59% 1.0 24.4 82% 3.9 28.2 79% 4.9 22.3 71% 2.9 20.3 68% 2.3 20.0 59% 2.0 22.7 72% 2.3 20.8 67% 2.7 25.8
AFLalytics 71% 3.3 26.1 79% 6.8 20.3 65% 0.6 15.2 68% 1.8 24.1 76% 2.5 17.6 65% 2.3 19.6 71% 4.3 25.8 82% 2.8 23.2 59% 0.3 21.0 71% 2.1 25.8 71% 1.8 22.8 88% 3.6 27.8 89% 5.3 23.1 67% 3.8 19.0 58% 1.3 23.4 59% 0.0 22.4 83% 4.1 18.7 67% 2.5 26.1
s10 71% 3.4 26.5 84% 5.7 20.4 71% 0.5 14.9 68% 1.1 24.6 76% 3.0 17.4 59% 1.8 19.2 86% 4.2 27.6 76% 2.4 24.5 47% -0.8 22.5 59% 0.9 27.5 71% 1.7 23.8 88% 4.2 27.7 84% 5.2 23.1 67% 3.3 20.1 68% 1.6 22.8 53% 0.8 21.6 78% 2.9 20.3 67% 2.4 26.3
AFL_GO 71% 3.0 26.4 89% 7.3 18.7 59% -1.2 18.6 58% 0.5 24.7 71% 0.5 22.6 71% 2.6 18.1 76% 3.2 28.5 71% 1.8 24.9 59% -1.5 22.3 65% -0.9 29.2 53% 0.7 25.5 76% 3.6 28.2 84% 5.6 22.5 67% 3.7 19.9 68% 1.5 23.7 59% -0.7 23.4 83% 3.9 18.2 72% 3.2 24.6
Matter of Stats 71% 4.1 26.5 84% 7.1 20.3 59% 0.9 15.4 63% 0.0 27.3 76% 3.1 17.5 65% 2.3 18.3 76% 4.3 29.0 71% 2.7 25.2 53% -1.6 22.5 65% 1.2 27.9 71% 2.6 22.9 82% 4.9 28.2 79% 6.7 21.8 71% 1.0 21.1 63% 1.9 22.1 53% 0.5 23.3 72% 1.6 21.9 67% 3.6 24.9
Aggregate 71% 3.0 27.1 79% 5.7 20.4 59% 0.2 15.5 68% 1.2 24.3 76% 2.7 18.2 59% 1.8 19.3 81% 4.1 27.7 71% 2.0 25.2 47% -0.8 22.6 53% 0.6 27.8 65% 1.6 23.9 82% 3.8 28.3 84% 5.1 23.4 67% 3.3 20.2 68% 1.6 23.2 53% 0.5 22.2 78% 2.9 19.9 78% 2.3 26.1
Live Ladders 76% 3.0 27.5 79% 6.4 20.7 71% 1.5 14.5 58% 1.0 25.5 71% 2.0 17.7 53% 1.3 19.6 67% 3.0 27.6 76% 2.8 24.4 47% -0.5 21.3 53% -0.1 28.8 71% 1.9 23.5 82% 4.4 26.9 89% 5.9 22.6 76% 4.2 19.1 68% 1.4 23.7 53% 0.3 20.4 61% 1.7 22.8 78% 3.1 25.8
PlusSixOne 59% 1.2 30.6 74% 3.0 21.1 65% 0.2 15.5 58% 1.6 24.0 71% 0.9 19.5 71% 1.1 20.4 81% 3.3 26.5 76% 2.0 24.7 59% 0.1 20.7 71% 1.1 26.3 65% 1.0 24.6 76% 1.6 29.0 79% 3.4 25.0 67% 2.4 21.2 74% 1.3 22.5 59% 0.7 21.4 72% 1.9 20.7 56% 0.8 28.3
Footy Maths Institute 65% 0.7 30.9 84% 5.0 19.9 59% -0.0 18.9 74% 1.8 24.3 71% 1.6 21.5 65% 1.6 21.2 81% 3.5 29.1 71% 0.9 32.4 59% -0.4 23.1 71% 0.1 27.8 65% 1.8 26.0 59% 1.3 31.6 79% 3.2 24.9 71% 3.5 21.7 53% -0.6 28.5 53% -1.2 26.2 78% 2.2 20.3 61% 1.5 27.7
Swinburne 65% 1.9 29.2 79% 6.3 22.6 65% -0.1 17.0 74% 1.4 25.5 71% 3.2 18.8 59% 1.7 21.3 81% 4.6 29.0 76% 2.5 26.4 41% -2.2 25.8 65% 0.7 26.1 59% 0.8 26.7 76% 4.0 29.4 79% 4.4 22.7 62% 4.3 22.5 68% 1.1 24.7 47% -1.0 26.4 78% 3.2 21.8 50% 1.8 26.4
Graft 71% 2.9 28.5 79% 4.3 21.6 59% -0.2 15.9 63% 1.0 24.8 76% 2.4 18.4 65% 1.5 19.2 67% 3.6 29.1 71% 1.3 27.3 47% -0.9 23.0 59% 1.0 26.5 59% 1.5 25.2 88% 3.0 29.4 79% 4.4 24.4 67% 2.1 21.9 74% 1.4 23.2 47% 0.4 21.7 67% 2.0 21.7 61% 1.1 27.8
The Flag 71% 3.3 28.1 74% 5.9 21.4 47% -3.3 21.2 68% 0.7 25.7 76% 3.6 18.9 65% 1.7 18.9 81% 3.6 30.1 65% -0.2 29.0 53% -2.7 25.4 59% 0.8 27.6 65% 0.7 24.5 76% 4.1 29.9 84% 6.5 23.5 57% 1.5 22.9 58% 0.9 25.0 53% -1.8 25.5 72% 3.6 21.5 61% 1.2 27.6
AFL Lab 71% 3.8 28.1 79% 5.0 21.9 47% -1.3 17.1 68% -0.5 26.2 76% 3.2 18.4 65% 0.4 21.4 71% 4.0 28.4 65% -1.0 29.2 41% -3.0 22.8 41% -1.5 29.5 71% 1.4 23.2 82% 5.6 26.7 79% 5.5 25.3 67% 2.7 21.9 63% 0.7 23.9 47% 0.1 20.8 72% 2.3 21.3 78% 2.7 26.1
Stattraction 76% 1.6 29.6 74% 3.8 22.2 71% 0.2 15.1 68% 0.1 25.1 71% 2.1 19.6 59% 0.3 20.9 71% 3.6 28.9 65% -0.0 29.8 53% -0.7 22.8 47% -1.0 29.1 65% 2.0 24.0 59% 1.8 30.8 84% 4.0 25.1 62% 1.3 22.0 68% 1.8 23.2 47% 0.0 21.4 72% 2.4 21.1 61% 2.0 27.3
Massey Ratings 62% 1.3 29.7 83% 4.8 20.9 44% -0.9 19.3 72% 2.3 19.9 69% 0.9 20.8 47% 0.6 21.4 76% 4.0 26.6 69% 1.7 27.1 50% -0.3 22.4 50% -1.4 31.6 60% -0.5 27.7 75% 3.1 30.1 83% 5.0 23.0 79% 3.8 21.6 72% 3.8 20.7 53% 1.4 21.9 75% 2.3 16.4 65% 0.9 29.6
The Arc 86% 1.2 25.6 71% 1.2 21.9 43% -1.0 22.6 57% -0.5 26.3 33% -0.7 19.5 71% 1.0 12.6 29% -0.3 31.6 43% -2.2 39.6 29% -1.7 29.0 43% -1.0 40.1 67% 1.2 18.8 57% 0.6 24.3 86% 2.1 27.6 71% 0.2 26.6 57% -0.6 25.4 29% -0.6 23.9 71% -0.5 32.6 14% -1.7 49.1