LEADERBOARD

After Round 13, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4

87 27.0344 27.03 26.5522 26.55 76.3158 76.3%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4

87 25.9843 25.98 25.7643 25.76 76.3158 76.3%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6

86 18.0259 18.03 26.8537 26.85 75.4386 75.4%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4

83 26.2580 26.26 26.7760 26.78 72.8070 72.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4

83 22.4760 22.48 27.3785 27.38 72.8070 72.8%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4

82 27.3776 27.38 26.3532 26.35 71.9298 71.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4

82 25.6857 25.69 26.9713 26.97 71.9298 71.9%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4

82 25.4313 25.43 27.6316 27.63 71.9298 71.9%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4

82 24.9248 24.92 26.7170 26.72 71.9298 71.9%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4

82 20.3962 20.40 27.2807 27.28 71.9298 71.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4

81 26.1262 26.13 27.1577 27.16 71.0526 71.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5

81 23.9364 23.94 28.3947 28.39 71.0526 71.1%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4

80 24.1079 24.11 27.6446 27.64 70.1754 70.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4

80 23.4632 23.46 27.0648 27.06 70.1754 70.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4

80 21.3427 21.34 28.5443 28.54 †1 70.7965 70.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4

79 24.7952 24.80 27.9170 27.92 69.2982 69.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5

79 24.6373 24.64 26.9851 26.99 69.2982 69.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6

79 23.6467 23.65 27.0777 27.08 69.2982 69.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5

79 21.3115 21.31 27.0965 27.10 69.2982 69.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5

78 25.0248 25.02 26.5855 26.59 68.4211 68.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4

78 25.0146 25.01 27.9031 27.90 68.4211 68.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5

78 23.8009 23.80 27.6404 27.64 68.4211 68.4%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4

78 19.6520 19.65 27.9925 27.99 68.4211 68.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4

77 23.8536 23.85 27.2018 27.20 67.5439 67.5%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4

77 21.0037 21.00 27.3386 27.34 67.5439 67.5%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4

76 22.6830 22.68 28.9825 28.98 66.6667 66.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4

76 19.4850 19.48 27.6088 27.61 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4

75 20.7031 20.70 27.3809 27.38 65.7895 65.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5

73 18.9643 18.96 27.6667 27.67 †9 69.5238 69.5%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5

73 18.4935 18.49 27.8947 27.89 64.0351 64.0%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4

61 19.5102 19.51 28.6910 28.69 †25 68.5393 68.5%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 83% 2.8 16.7 62% 0.3 34.0 69% 2.8 22.9 85% 3.9 22.3 85% 6.0 28.6 85% 4.7 23.0 69% 1.2 29.5 75% 2.6 27.5 75% 1.5 30.7 69% 2.9 24.7 54% -1.1 27.9 75% 3.3 31.5 75% 0.9 25.1 83% 5.5 27.1 85% 4.3 18.9 100% 7.1 35.2 69% 2.8 27.7 77% 2.4 24.3
Wheelo Ratings 83% 2.7 12.7 54% 0.5 32.8 69% 2.3 23.8 85% 3.7 21.2 85% 5.7 28.9 92% 5.5 20.9 69% 0.3 29.7 75% 2.9 26.8 75% 2.7 29.1 77% 1.9 23.8 54% -1.3 28.5 75% 3.8 29.4 67% 0.1 25.1 83% 5.4 26.8 92% 4.5 18.5 100% 6.8 33.9 69% 3.3 28.2 69% 1.3 23.3
Holy Grail Ratings 75% 1.8 14.5 62% 0.8 33.6 69% 1.6 21.6 92% 2.8 22.3 92% 3.7 30.4 69% 2.5 26.4 62% 1.1 27.0 92% 2.6 24.2 67% 1.0 33.8 69% 1.4 24.3 69% 0.7 25.5 75% 2.2 31.1 58% 0.3 26.9 83% 3.2 30.0 92% 2.8 22.7 100% 4.8 35.1 69% 2.6 29.1 62% 0.3 24.8
s10 75% 3.7 14.1 54% 0.8 34.3 62% 2.1 23.9 85% 3.7 21.1 85% 5.3 29.9 85% 4.9 22.0 62% 0.6 29.9 67% 2.6 26.9 58% 1.7 31.9 77% 2.1 24.9 46% -0.7 28.3 75% 3.9 30.0 75% 0.6 26.2 83% 5.9 26.9 92% 4.7 20.7 92% 6.5 36.2 69% 3.1 29.2 69% 0.9 25.4
Glicko Ratings 83% 3.3 15.1 54% 0.3 35.1 62% 2.5 23.9 77% 3.3 22.0 85% 4.1 30.7 85% 4.4 22.7 69% 0.3 31.3 75% 2.2 27.5 67% 1.8 30.8 69% 1.5 27.3 46% -1.0 28.1 75% 3.3 31.5 75% 0.4 27.1 83% 5.2 28.3 85% 4.4 19.9 92% 6.0 36.4 69% 2.5 29.2 62% 0.4 25.5
Punters 75% 3.3 14.2 54% 0.4 34.8 69% 3.0 23.7 77% 3.7 23.3 85% 5.7 32.1 92% 6.3 19.9 69% 0.9 27.8 75% 3.0 25.9 67% 1.9 31.9 77% 2.0 25.0 46% -1.1 28.9 67% 3.3 30.7 58% -0.1 25.6 83% 6.2 23.8 77% 4.1 20.0 100% 7.7 31.6 69% 2.9 29.4 54% 1.5 25.2
AFLalytics 75% 3.2 15.3 54% 0.8 34.2 62% 2.2 23.0 85% 3.1 22.4 85% 5.0 30.7 77% 4.0 24.6 69% 1.6 29.2 75% 2.6 26.7 75% 2.5 30.0 85% 2.4 25.9 46% 0.3 27.2 75% 4.3 27.3 58% 0.4 26.1 83% 5.2 28.9 77% 3.8 22.3 92% 6.1 37.5 69% 3.4 28.6 54% 0.5 25.0
ZaphBot 75% 4.2 12.9 62% 1.6 33.3 69% 2.0 27.0 85% 4.5 24.7 77% 4.9 29.5 85% 6.5 18.4 54% -0.5 30.7 67% 2.0 27.8 58% 0.2 36.2 77% 1.3 24.9 54% -0.6 28.7 67% 3.6 32.2 67% -0.7 28.8 83% 7.0 26.1 92% 5.7 21.6 100% 7.5 34.4 62% 2.4 31.6 62% -0.7 28.5
Aggregate 75% 3.4 13.9 46% 1.1 34.2 69% 2.2 23.6 85% 3.5 21.3 85% 5.0 29.7 77% 4.7 21.8 62% 0.7 28.7 67% 2.7 26.5 58% 1.3 33.3 77% 2.0 24.2 54% -0.3 27.5 75% 3.6 30.1 75% 0.4 26.6 83% 5.7 26.4 92% 4.4 21.3 85% 6.0 36.4 69% 3.1 29.4 62% 0.4 25.6
Cheap Stats 67% 2.3 17.3 54% 1.1 33.5 69% 2.4 21.1 85% 1.9 24.2 77% 3.6 33.1 85% 4.8 22.4 69% 1.3 29.2 67% 2.5 26.9 58% 0.7 34.9 77% 1.1 26.2 46% 0.1 25.5 75% 2.0 32.7 67% 1.3 25.8 75% 4.2 28.2 85% 3.0 21.8 92% 5.3 33.8 77% 2.9 30.4 69% 0.4 24.4
Don't Blame the Data 75% 4.1 14.7 46% 1.0 34.4 69% 2.2 24.0 85% 3.5 21.4 85% 5.9 29.5 69% 4.7 23.7 62% 0.6 28.5 67% 3.2 25.7 58% 1.5 32.5 69% 1.5 25.7 54% -1.3 28.5 75% 4.0 31.0 75% 0.3 27.5 83% 6.8 26.5 92% 5.6 20.7 85% 5.6 36.8 69% 2.9 30.1 62% 0.3 27.2
The Wooden Finger 83% 3.6 16.0 54% 0.8 35.5 69% 2.7 26.5 92% 4.7 22.2 85% 5.3 30.4 77% 4.1 22.7 54% -0.7 31.2 67% 3.6 25.2 58% -0.1 36.7 69% 1.6 26.5 54% -0.5 28.2 75% 4.0 31.8 75% 0.0 30.8 83% 6.2 23.2 92% 5.1 21.0 77% 4.9 40.2 69% 3.2 32.2 46% -0.6 30.2
AFL Lab 67% 3.4 17.3 46% 0.9 35.4 62% 1.5 26.7 77% 3.1 20.5 85% 5.0 28.8 69% 2.6 27.1 62% 2.1 28.0 75% 3.7 23.9 58% 0.9 32.0 77% 2.8 23.5 62% 1.0 26.9 75% 3.5 30.5 75% 0.6 27.3 83% 5.2 28.3 85% 4.7 21.0 85% 4.9 39.7 69% 3.1 30.1 54% -0.7 29.9
What Snoo Thinks 75% 2.3 15.3 62% 0.6 34.7 77% 3.4 18.8 69% 2.9 22.9 85% 4.6 30.8 69% 3.9 25.5 54% 0.4 29.0 58% 2.3 27.3 58% 1.7 32.8 62% 0.5 27.4 54% -0.9 27.1 75% 4.1 28.8 67% 0.6 26.7 75% 4.7 30.2 92% 4.6 20.8 92% 6.3 35.7 69% 4.3 28.6 69% 0.7 24.6
The Cruncher 82% 4.5 17.7 54% -0.3 36.1 62% 1.5 25.2 77% 2.9 23.6 85% 4.9 31.3 85% 4.5 23.1 58% -0.6 34.2 58% 1.3 30.2 67% 1.4 31.2 69% 1.2 26.9 46% -2.5 29.8 75% 3.5 29.7 75% 0.9 28.4 83% 5.5 27.9 85% 4.5 22.6 85% 6.0 37.8 69% 2.5 30.4 62% 1.1 26.7
Matter of Stats 75% 3.9 16.0 54% 1.0 34.4 69% 2.1 22.5 85% 3.8 21.9 77% 4.4 34.5 77% 4.2 22.2 62% 0.3 31.0 75% 3.0 25.6 58% 0.1 35.7 69% 2.7 25.4 46% -1.3 28.9 67% 3.2 34.8 50% 0.2 28.0 83% 6.1 22.4 85% 4.9 22.3 100% 6.6 37.6 62% 3.3 31.4 54% 1.1 27.3
footycharts 75% 3.1 14.1 46% 1.0 34.2 69% 2.7 23.4 77% 3.4 22.6 85% 4.8 30.6 77% 5.2 21.3 77% 1.7 27.6 75% 3.3 26.3 58% 1.8 31.4 69% 2.0 25.7 46% 0.1 27.2 83% 4.6 25.8 58% -0.9 27.5 83% 4.6 29.2 85% 4.0 22.4 85% 5.9 37.1 77% 2.9 30.8 23% -1.1 27.9
Stattraction 75% 3.5 13.8 54% 1.1 34.5 69% 1.8 25.6 92% 4.4 19.7 85% 4.6 30.6 77% 4.5 21.1 54% -0.2 28.4 67% 2.9 26.9 58% 0.6 34.3 62% 1.4 24.9 62% -0.1 26.6 67% 3.3 31.0 58% 0.8 26.8 83% 5.9 24.7 85% 5.0 21.6 77% 4.7 38.6 69% 3.4 29.8 54% -0.2 27.9
PlusSixOne 75% 2.9 13.6 69% 0.9 34.7 62% 1.6 24.5 77% 3.4 23.2 85% 5.1 25.4 92% 5.7 17.7 62% 0.3 28.3 58% 2.2 27.4 58% 0.2 35.0 69% 1.7 23.6 54% 0.4 26.4 67% 3.2 27.3 50% -0.2 27.3 83% 5.1 28.3 85% 4.2 23.9 85% 5.5 37.6 62% 2.0 33.2 54% -1.5 30.3
Winnable 67% 3.4 14.1 54% -0.4 34.2 46% 0.7 24.1 77% 3.5 21.5 85% 5.4 29.8 85% 4.7 22.8 62% 1.3 27.9 67% 2.5 28.6 58% 2.6 30.0 77% 2.3 23.2 46% -1.0 28.4 75% 5.1 25.6 58% 0.9 23.7 83% 4.9 31.7 62% 3.6 22.8 100% 6.2 37.2 69% 3.7 28.3 62% 0.6 24.4
In The Game 75% 3.7 18.2 54% 0.3 34.7 54% 1.9 23.0 85% 4.1 22.9 85% 5.7 30.8 77% 4.9 21.9 54% -0.1 32.4 67% 2.9 26.3 75% 1.1 33.9 62% 2.2 22.7 38% -2.0 30.9 67% 3.9 33.3 50% -1.6 28.6 83% 6.9 23.1 77% 5.1 24.6 100% 9.3 32.8 69% 0.3 35.4 62% 1.3 26.4
Informed Stats 75% 3.6 15.7 54% 0.9 36.3 62% 3.1 25.2 69% 2.7 23.2 85% 5.5 27.9 85% 5.6 16.3 62% -1.0 30.4 58% 1.9 29.2 67% 1.0 35.8 69% 2.2 25.5 46% -2.3 29.6 75% 3.6 31.8 67% -0.2 27.2 83% 7.2 24.0 85% 4.8 24.3 77% 5.2 39.2 69% 3.5 29.8 46% 0.4 26.1
AFL Scorigami 75% 3.3 16.8 46% -0.5 34.5 85% 2.3 20.6 77% 1.8 23.8 69% 4.0 31.9 77% 4.6 25.3 54% -0.2 32.7 50% 2.2 27.6 67% -1.0 34.3 69% 2.2 24.8 54% -0.5 28.3 75% 3.3 30.4 67% 0.7 24.9 83% 5.7 28.4 85% 3.8 23.5 85% 4.6 37.6 62% 2.2 31.7 54% 0.8 26.2
Live Ladders 67% 2.7 16.5 38% 1.3 33.4 62% 2.4 20.0 77% 3.0 20.8 85% 4.8 30.2 69% 3.7 26.1 62% 2.2 26.1 67% 2.5 28.3 67% 2.1 33.0 69% 2.1 24.9 62% 0.7 25.4 83% 3.8 29.6 58% 0.0 26.8 83% 4.5 32.6 69% 3.5 23.6 85% 5.3 36.5 77% 3.5 29.9 38% -0.4 26.2
HBin 75% 3.0 17.1 62% 2.0 32.3 62% 1.7 25.5 77% 3.4 19.8 85% 3.9 32.6 77% 3.9 23.7 54% -0.5 28.8 58% 2.4 27.5 67% 0.7 34.3 69% 2.0 23.5 38% -2.3 28.2 67% 3.2 30.7 58% -0.6 28.7 83% 6.7 25.9 92% 5.2 21.0 85% 5.8 36.0 69% 1.7 31.5 38% -0.2 25.1
Graft 67% 2.7 20.1 46% 1.5 35.5 69% 2.3 29.5 77% 3.5 24.0 85% 4.3 33.0 77% 4.2 19.8 46% 0.6 30.8 58% 2.4 28.6 67% 1.4 33.2 69% 1.5 25.9 54% 0.6 28.6 75% 3.4 29.0 67% -0.2 31.3 83% 5.4 23.8 85% 3.7 26.5 77% 4.9 38.2 69% 3.4 33.2 31% -0.3 30.0
The Footycast 67% 2.6 15.1 54% 1.0 33.9 69% 2.1 24.4 69% 3.1 23.5 85% 4.1 28.3 85% 4.3 22.5 54% 0.5 30.7 58% 1.8 28.0 50% 0.1 35.0 69% 1.2 25.8 54% 0.6 25.8 75% 2.7 29.2 58% -0.4 26.3 83% 5.1 28.1 85% 3.6 23.3 77% 4.6 38.5 69% 2.5 30.0 38% -0.4 28.0
Squiggle 75% 2.3 13.7 54% 1.6 32.6 46% 0.7 25.4 77% 3.1 22.4 85% 3.6 30.4 77% 4.0 23.6 46% 0.5 29.3 67% 1.7 29.1 58% 2.0 28.7 69% 1.2 27.0 38% -0.8 29.5 75% 3.8 29.6 58% 0.1 25.5 83% 5.0 28.6 69% 3.7 21.1 92% 6.0 37.6 69% 3.5 30.6 46% -0.6 27.4
Hyperion 80% 3.2 15.3 50% 0.3 34.0 64% 0.8 30.4 75% 2.5 20.8 83% 5.0 28.2 83% 6.1 19.3 67% 0.3 30.7 73% 3.4 24.3 67% -0.4 38.1 83% 2.7 23.2 42% -0.4 28.2 73% 2.8 33.1 55% -0.7 30.5 82% 6.1 24.8 77% 3.4 23.9 83% 4.3 32.7 67% 0.9 25.3 50% -2.2 33.9
Elo Predicts! 67% 3.1 15.8 54% 0.6 33.8 62% 0.9 25.2 69% 2.8 23.3 69% 4.6 27.1 69% 4.0 20.1 46% -0.3 28.5 67% 2.4 29.8 75% 0.4 37.5 69% 1.3 23.2 54% -0.4 27.3 58% 2.5 35.9 58% -0.6 28.5 83% 5.6 27.2 85% 4.1 20.9 77% 4.4 37.1 62% 2.7 32.5 31% -1.1 29.0
Massey Ratings 75% 2.8 18.0 36% 0.3 35.9 70% 1.5 28.2 82% 2.8 19.5 80% 3.7 30.1 80% 3.9 23.1 55% 0.1 33.5 67% 1.6 27.6 60% 0.5 36.9 64% 1.3 27.2 44% -0.3 29.4 78% 3.8 36.7 56% 0.6 25.8 78% 5.1 24.7 90% 4.3 25.6 91% 4.9 34.0 78% 3.1 28.1 55% -0.8 29.3