LEADERBOARD

After 2 games of Round 0, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Punters

2

2 0.9452 0.95 41.5050 41.51 100.0000 100.0%
Cheap Stats

2

2 0.7035 0.70 40.5000 40.50 100.0000 100.0%
Glicko Ratings

2

2 0.6238 0.62 48.1150 48.12 100.0000 100.0%
AFLalytics

2

2 0.5912 0.59 48.3850 48.38 100.0000 100.0%
Drop Kick Data

2

2 0.5687 0.57 49.4750 49.48 100.0000 100.0%
Wheelo Ratings

2

2 0.4810 0.48 51.2500 51.25 100.0000 100.0%
footycharts

2

2 0.4353 0.44 52.5050 52.51 100.0000 100.0%
Matter of Stats

2

2 0.4045 0.40 52.9900 52.99 100.0000 100.0%
Holy Grail Ratings

2

2 0.1970 0.20 54.1700 54.17 100.0000 100.0%
In The Game

1

1 0.5190 0.52 47.7700 47.77 50.0000 50.0%
The Cruncher

1

1 0.4993 0.50 51.5250 51.52 50.0000 50.0%
s10

1

1 0.3569 0.36 53.1550 53.16 50.0000 50.0%
Hyperion

1

1 0.3505 0.35 52.0000 52.00 50.0000 50.0%
PlusSixOne

1

1 0.3067 0.31 52.0500 52.05 50.0000 50.0%
Aggregate

1

1 0.2940 0.29 54.1150 54.12 50.0000 50.0%
Don't Blame the Data

1

1 0.2519 0.25 55.8750 55.88 50.0000 50.0%
What Snoo Thinks

1

1 0.2166 0.22 54.5650 54.56 50.0000 50.0%
Live Ladders

1

1 0.2136 0.21 56.0000 56.00 50.0000 50.0%
Elo Predicts!

1

1 0.2113 0.21 62.0000 62.00 50.0000 50.0%
Stattraction

1

1 0.1712 0.17 56.6300 56.63 50.0000 50.0%
Graft

1

1 0.1662 0.17 55.5000 55.50 50.0000 50.0%
The Wooden Finger

1

1 0.1490 0.15 56.0000 56.00 50.0000 50.0%
Informed Stats

1

1 0.1158 0.12 57.0000 57.00 50.0000 50.0%
AFL Scorigami

1

1 0.0999 0.10 57.5250 57.52 50.0000 50.0%
Massey Ratings

1

1 0.0405 0.04 58.0000 58.00 50.0000 50.0%
Winnable

1

1 0.0346 0.03 58.9250 58.92 50.0000 50.0%
HBin

1

1 -0.0197 0.02 59.7500 59.75 50.0000 50.0%
The Footycast

1

1 -0.0791 0.08 59.2000 59.20 50.0000 50.0%
AFL Lab

1

1 -0.1012 0.10 61.7200 61.72 50.0000 50.0%
ZaphBot

1

1 -0.2475 0.25 57.0000 57.00 50.0000 50.0%
Squiggle

0

0 -0.1106 0.11 61.3800 61.38 0.0000 0.0%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Punters 100% 0.6 39.6 100% 0.3 43.4 100% 0.3 43.4 100% 0.6 39.6
Cheap Stats 100% 0.5 38.0 100% 0.2 43.0 100% 0.2 43.0 100% 0.5 38.0
Glicko Ratings 100% 0.5 43.7 100% 0.1 52.5 100% 0.1 52.5 100% 0.5 43.7
AFLalytics 100% 0.4 46.8 100% 0.2 49.9 100% 0.2 49.9 100% 0.4 46.8
Drop Kick Data 100% 0.5 43.9 100% 0.0 55.0 100% 0.0 55.0 100% 0.5 43.9
Wheelo Ratings 100% 0.4 48.4 100% 0.1 54.1 100% 0.1 54.1 100% 0.4 48.4
footycharts 100% 0.4 51.1 100% 0.1 53.9 100% 0.1 53.9 100% 0.4 51.1
Matter of Stats 100% 0.4 51.3 100% 0.0 54.7 100% 0.0 54.7 100% 0.4 51.3
Holy Grail Ratings 100% 0.2 52.9 100% 0.0 55.4 100% 0.0 55.4 100% 0.2 52.9
In The Game 100% 0.8 33.9 0% -0.2 61.7 0% -0.2 61.7 100% 0.8 33.9
The Cruncher 100% 0.5 47.0 0% -0.0 56.1 0% -0.0 56.1 100% 0.5 47.0
s10 100% 0.4 48.3 0% -0.1 58.0 0% -0.1 58.0 100% 0.4 48.3
Hyperion 100% 0.5 44.0 0% -0.2 60.0 0% -0.2 60.0 100% 0.5 44.0
PlusSixOne 100% 0.6 39.6 0% -0.3 64.5 0% -0.3 64.5 100% 0.6 39.6
Aggregate 100% 0.4 49.4 0% -0.1 58.8 0% -0.1 58.8 100% 0.4 49.4
Don't Blame the Data 100% 0.3 53.5 0% -0.1 58.2 0% -0.1 58.2 100% 0.3 53.5
What Snoo Thinks 100% 0.5 46.3 0% -0.3 62.8 0% -0.3 62.8 100% 0.5 46.3
Live Ladders 100% 0.3 53.0 0% -0.1 59.0 0% -0.1 59.0 100% 0.3 53.0
Elo Predicts! 100% 0.4 55.0 0% -0.1 69.0 0% -0.1 69.0 100% 0.4 55.0
Stattraction 100% 0.2 55.5 0% -0.1 57.8 0% -0.1 57.8 100% 0.2 55.5
Graft 100% 0.3 50.0 0% -0.1 61.0 0% -0.1 61.0 100% 0.3 50.0
The Wooden Finger 100% 0.3 51.0 0% -0.2 61.0 0% -0.2 61.0 100% 0.3 51.0
Informed Stats 100% 0.3 50.0 0% -0.2 64.0 0% -0.2 64.0 100% 0.3 50.0
AFL Scorigami 100% 0.1 57.9 0% -0.0 57.2 0% -0.0 57.2 100% 0.1 57.9
Massey Ratings 100% 0.3 52.5 0% -0.2 63.5 0% -0.2 63.5 100% 0.3 52.5
Winnable 100% 0.1 59.9 0% -0.1 57.9 0% -0.1 57.9 100% 0.1 59.9
HBin 100% 0.0 61.7 0% -0.1 57.8 0% -0.1 57.8 100% 0.0 61.7
The Footycast 100% 0.3 49.8 0% -0.4 68.6 0% -0.4 68.6 100% 0.3 49.8
AFL Lab 100% 0.1 57.4 0% -0.2 66.0 0% -0.2 66.0 100% 0.1 57.4
ZaphBot 100% 0.6 36.0 0% -0.9 78.0 0% -0.9 78.0 100% 0.6 36.0
Squiggle 0% -0.0 63.0 0% -0.1 59.8 0% -0.1 59.8 0% -0.0 63.0