LEADERBOARD

After Round 20, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7

131 42.6924 42.69 24.8156 24.82 76.6082 76.6%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8

130 44.5723 44.57 25.3743 25.37 76.0234 76.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8

129 41.3549 41.35 24.4277 24.43 75.4386 75.4%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7

129 28.8962 28.90 25.1774 25.18 75.4386 75.4%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8

127 43.8119 43.81 24.8736 24.87 74.2690 74.3%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8

127 42.4921 42.49 25.0103 25.01 74.2690 74.3%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8

126 43.4799 43.48 24.9319 24.93 73.6842 73.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8

126 41.4053 41.41 24.9328 24.93 73.6842 73.7%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8

126 38.5802 38.58 25.3985 25.40 73.6842 73.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8

125 44.8103 44.81 25.3112 25.31 73.0994 73.1%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8

125 41.4430 41.44 25.3509 25.35 73.0994 73.1%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8

125 38.4788 38.48 25.4777 25.48 73.0994 73.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8

124 41.9194 41.92 26.1754 26.18 72.5146 72.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8

124 39.3719 39.37 25.7809 25.78 72.5146 72.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8

123 42.2078 42.21 25.4438 25.44 71.9298 71.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8

123 41.1191 41.12 24.9658 24.97 71.9298 71.9%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8

122 40.5968 40.60 25.1098 25.11 71.3450 71.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8

122 40.0703 40.07 25.2091 25.21 71.3450 71.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7

122 37.3784 37.38 25.1427 25.14 71.3450 71.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7

122 31.7547 31.75 26.2118 26.21 †1 71.7647 71.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7

121 38.0017 38.00 26.4224 26.42 †2 71.5976 71.6%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8

121 37.7346 37.73 25.3450 25.34 70.7602 70.8%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7

121 32.9273 32.93 25.7041 25.70 70.7602 70.8%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8

119 38.1063 38.11 25.7778 25.78 69.5906 69.6%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7

118 39.3132 39.31 26.4903 26.49 69.0058 69.0%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8

118 37.5821 37.58 26.4561 26.46 69.0058 69.0%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8

117 35.8795 35.88 25.6139 25.61 68.4211 68.4%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8

117 35.3955 35.40 26.6491 26.65 68.4211 68.4%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8

117 34.9882 34.99 25.9074 25.91 †9 72.2222 72.2%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7

117 32.1208 32.12 26.7903 26.79 68.4211 68.4%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8

106 37.5951 37.60 26.1438 26.14 †25 72.6027 72.6%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 68% 1.4 24.4 68% 3.7 30.7 74% 3.8 24.9 79% 4.9 20.9 84% 8.1 27.9 84% 6.7 21.9 63% 1.9 26.1 79% 5.5 23.6 63% -1.8 29.3 74% 5.1 26.6 58% 0.5 24.5 84% 6.5 22.3 79% 3.5 21.1 89% 11.0 22.4 84% 5.9 19.1 95% 8.2 32.9 79% 6.9 23.1 74% 3.5 25.1
ZaphBot 68% 3.8 21.3 68% 4.5 31.4 74% 4.2 26.7 84% 5.9 23.1 79% 6.9 29.9 84% 8.7 18.8 58% 0.6 26.5 79% 5.6 22.3 53% -3.0 33.3 79% 3.4 26.9 63% 1.5 25.0 79% 7.2 23.5 74% 0.9 23.6 89% 12.8 21.9 95% 8.1 18.3 100% 9.3 30.6 74% 6.8 26.8 68% 1.9 26.7
Wheelo Ratings 68% 2.1 21.1 58% 3.3 30.5 74% 3.6 24.7 79% 4.6 20.2 84% 7.6 27.9 89% 7.5 20.6 68% 0.9 26.7 74% 4.6 24.3 58% -0.7 29.2 79% 4.3 25.1 63% 0.9 24.2 84% 7.1 21.6 74% 2.1 21.3 89% 10.7 22.6 84% 5.9 19.0 89% 7.7 32.0 79% 7.8 23.8 63% 2.5 24.9
Holy Grail Ratings 63% 1.5 22.9 63% 2.8 31.4 74% 2.8 23.5 84% 3.4 20.1 89% 5.5 30.2 74% 3.9 24.6 63% 1.7 23.6 84% 4.0 22.1 63% 0.5 30.1 74% 2.8 27.5 68% 1.4 24.0 84% 3.5 22.0 68% 1.7 23.1 89% 6.7 25.1 89% 4.0 20.7 89% 5.2 33.6 79% 5.0 24.0 58% 1.4 24.9
s10 63% 3.1 21.9 63% 3.9 31.3 68% 3.8 24.7 79% 5.3 19.8 84% 7.4 28.9 84% 7.1 21.1 63% 1.6 25.8 68% 4.7 24.1 53% -0.9 30.1 79% 4.3 26.6 58% 1.3 23.9 84% 7.2 22.2 79% 3.0 21.5 89% 11.5 22.3 89% 6.5 19.7 89% 7.6 33.6 79% 7.6 24.5 63% 2.5 25.8
AFLalytics 63% 2.2 23.1 63% 3.3 31.2 68% 3.7 23.8 79% 4.4 20.8 84% 7.3 29.8 79% 6.4 23.2 74% 2.6 25.3 74% 4.1 24.6 68% 0.8 28.2 84% 4.7 27.4 58% 2.3 23.3 84% 7.2 20.5 68% 2.8 21.2 89% 10.7 23.2 79% 5.8 20.4 89% 7.0 34.5 79% 7.7 23.8 53% 2.0 26.0
Punters 63% 2.4 22.6 63% 3.4 31.7 74% 4.0 25.3 74% 4.5 21.9 84% 7.5 30.3 89% 8.9 20.9 68% 1.8 25.2 74% 4.8 24.1 58% -1.1 30.7 79% 4.3 26.3 58% 1.1 24.5 79% 6.5 22.2 68% 2.1 22.4 89% 11.8 20.0 79% 5.8 19.2 95% 8.7 30.5 79% 7.3 25.1 53% 3.1 25.7
Aggregate 63% 2.9 21.8 58% 3.7 31.8 74% 3.9 24.7 79% 4.8 20.0 84% 7.0 29.3 79% 6.8 21.1 63% 1.5 25.0 68% 4.7 24.0 53% -1.0 31.0 79% 4.1 26.3 63% 1.7 23.5 84% 6.6 21.9 79% 2.6 22.5 89% 11.0 22.0 89% 6.2 19.9 84% 7.1 33.9 79% 7.2 24.5 58% 2.1 25.6
Glicko Ratings 68% 2.2 23.2 63% 3.4 31.3 68% 4.2 24.5 74% 5.2 19.7 84% 6.1 29.7 84% 6.6 21.6 68% 1.4 26.2 74% 3.5 25.7 53% -0.4 29.2 74% 3.5 28.0 58% 0.8 23.7 84% 6.2 24.2 79% 2.8 21.6 89% 10.7 23.2 79% 5.8 19.7 89% 7.1 33.9 79% 7.0 24.7 58% 1.1 27.1
Don't Blame the Data 63% 3.8 22.1 58% 4.3 31.6 74% 4.1 24.7 79% 5.6 20.2 84% 8.2 28.5 74% 6.7 22.9 63% 1.5 24.4 68% 4.9 24.6 53% -1.1 30.3 74% 3.4 27.6 63% 0.3 24.3 84% 7.8 23.6 79% 3.1 22.7 89% 12.7 22.2 89% 7.7 19.5 84% 7.0 33.8 79% 7.8 25.7 58% 1.8 27.2
Informed Stats 68% 4.0 22.1 63% 4.3 32.9 68% 4.9 26.0 74% 4.7 21.6 84% 6.9 26.3 84% 6.4 16.9 63% -0.1 26.9 74% 5.1 23.2 53% -3.8 35.1 74% 5.2 25.2 58% 0.3 25.1 84% 6.9 23.1 74% 1.7 23.3 89% 13.2 20.6 84% 5.9 22.9 84% 7.0 34.6 79% 7.8 25.3 58% 2.6 25.2
What Snoo Thinks 68% 1.7 23.0 63% 1.7 34.6 79% 5.2 21.6 68% 4.0 20.9 84% 7.0 31.0 74% 5.5 25.3 58% 0.6 25.5 63% 3.7 26.1 53% 0.3 29.6 68% 2.6 28.4 63% 0.7 23.5 84% 6.6 20.9 74% 2.5 23.9 84% 10.3 23.5 95% 6.8 19.0 84% 6.9 34.0 79% 7.9 24.0 74% 2.9 23.9
The Wooden Finger 68% 2.9 23.8 58% 3.2 33.7 74% 4.7 26.2 84% 5.7 21.2 84% 7.3 29.3 79% 6.4 20.8 58% 0.3 26.4 68% 5.7 22.6 53% -2.0 32.8 74% 3.6 28.4 63% 1.5 24.2 84% 7.6 23.1 79% 2.5 26.9 89% 11.7 20.8 89% 7.3 18.5 74% 6.6 37.2 79% 7.6 26.2 47% 1.2 29.0
AFL Lab 58% 3.2 24.2 58% 3.6 31.5 68% 3.3 27.1 74% 4.4 20.4 84% 6.9 28.2 74% 3.8 26.0 63% 2.6 24.5 74% 4.9 23.1 53% -1.2 30.2 79% 5.0 26.0 68% 3.0 23.5 84% 6.2 23.2 79% 2.9 22.7 89% 10.7 23.7 84% 6.2 20.3 84% 6.1 35.4 79% 6.8 24.9 53% 0.4 29.0
Matter of Stats 63% 3.7 22.8 63% 3.9 31.0 74% 4.0 23.6 79% 5.5 19.7 79% 6.6 30.9 79% 6.5 20.8 63% 1.4 26.1 74% 4.5 24.2 53% -1.6 32.2 74% 4.3 27.9 58% 0.2 24.6 79% 6.7 24.7 63% 2.9 22.3 89% 11.7 19.2 84% 6.8 20.5 95% 7.5 35.0 74% 7.5 25.1 53% 2.2 27.4
Winnable 58% 3.0 21.8 63% 2.9 30.7 58% 2.3 25.2 79% 5.0 19.9 84% 7.2 29.7 84% 6.3 22.8 63% 2.3 24.4 74% 4.8 24.5 53% 0.2 29.0 79% 4.3 26.4 58% 1.1 24.5 84% 7.7 19.9 68% 3.4 20.6 89% 10.0 26.3 68% 5.4 21.3 95% 7.0 34.5 79% 7.4 23.1 58% 1.7 24.8
footycharts 63% 2.1 22.7 58% 3.1 32.2 74% 5.1 24.1 74% 4.1 21.2 84% 6.8 30.0 79% 7.5 20.2 74% 2.2 24.6 74% 5.4 23.4 53% -0.3 30.0 74% 3.8 28.1 58% 1.9 23.9 84% 7.6 18.6 68% 1.2 23.6 89% 10.2 24.4 84% 6.2 20.0 84% 7.4 32.9 79% 6.5 24.3 32% 0.3 27.8
Stattraction 63% 2.5 22.8 58% 3.4 33.1 74% 3.6 26.1 84% 5.3 19.3 84% 6.8 29.5 79% 6.3 20.8 58% 0.4 24.5 68% 4.0 25.9 53% -1.1 30.9 68% 3.6 26.7 68% 2.3 22.8 74% 6.3 22.2 68% 3.2 23.0 89% 11.3 21.2 89% 7.6 18.6 74% 6.1 35.3 74% 6.9 24.5 58% 1.6 26.7
PlusSixOne 63% 1.5 23.1 74% 3.5 31.2 68% 3.8 24.3 74% 4.2 20.4 84% 7.8 26.3 89% 7.8 18.1 58% 0.8 26.0 74% 5.7 21.5 47% -2.1 32.6 74% 4.1 25.7 53% 1.4 24.7 68% 4.6 22.0 63% 1.5 23.8 89% 9.8 22.9 84% 6.5 20.5 84% 6.9 34.3 74% 6.1 27.1 63% 1.0 27.8
Cheap Stats 58% 1.9 24.6 58% 2.8 32.6 74% 3.5 23.2 79% 3.0 21.9 79% 4.9 33.6 83% 6.5 23.6 61% 1.4 27.7 63% 3.5 25.7 47% -1.9 32.5 74% 2.5 29.1 53% 1.6 23.3 84% 4.2 23.3 74% 3.1 23.2 84% 8.8 22.5 84% 4.3 20.9 84% 5.6 33.6 84% 6.2 25.5 68% 1.8 24.9
The Cruncher 67% 3.0 26.0 58% 2.9 32.9 63% 2.1 26.1 74% 4.5 21.2 84% 6.9 29.7 84% 6.8 22.1 59% -0.0 30.0 58% 3.0 27.1 53% -2.3 29.9 74% 3.9 26.3 58% 0.3 24.7 84% 6.8 23.2 79% 2.8 23.4 89% 11.4 22.2 83% 5.7 21.9 79% 7.2 35.2 79% 7.5 27.5 63% 3.3 26.4
HBin 68% 2.7 23.0 63% 4.8 30.5 68% 3.3 26.7 79% 5.6 18.6 84% 5.4 32.1 79% 6.1 22.6 58% 0.5 25.0 74% 5.9 23.5 53% -3.5 31.9 74% 3.9 26.7 53% -0.0 24.4 74% 6.5 22.3 68% 0.9 23.4 89% 12.4 23.2 84% 6.8 20.4 79% 6.1 33.0 74% 5.6 25.6 53% 2.6 23.3
The Footycast 58% 2.4 22.4 63% 3.2 31.9 74% 3.5 25.5 74% 4.0 20.4 84% 6.0 29.4 84% 5.7 22.4 58% 1.0 26.6 74% 3.6 24.9 42% -1.9 32.5 74% 3.2 28.0 63% 2.2 22.9 84% 4.5 21.3 68% 1.3 23.1 89% 9.5 23.5 84% 5.2 21.3 74% 5.4 35.5 79% 5.8 24.4 47% 1.2 26.8
Live Ladders 58% 2.4 23.6 47% 3.1 32.2 63% 4.1 22.2 74% 4.1 19.5 84% 6.8 31.1 74% 5.6 25.1 68% 2.9 23.4 63% 3.4 27.4 63% 1.0 29.4 63% 3.9 28.3 68% 2.3 23.2 89% 6.2 21.8 68% 2.3 23.2 89% 9.5 26.4 74% 5.1 22.2 79% 5.9 34.5 84% 6.8 24.7 42% 1.0 26.0
In The Game 63% 3.3 24.6 63% 3.5 32.6 58% 1.4 25.6 79% 5.1 21.2 84% 7.3 29.8 68% 5.8 23.6 53% 0.1 27.7 63% 4.0 25.2 58% -4.5 33.7 68% 4.5 23.8 53% 0.7 26.1 79% 8.0 25.6 63% 1.2 24.1 89% 12.6 19.2 74% 6.7 23.2 89% 10.5 32.3 79% 5.4 31.9 58% 3.0 26.6
Graft 58% 2.3 27.5 53% 3.3 33.0 74% 4.0 28.5 74% 4.3 23.3 84% 6.2 31.4 79% 6.2 18.4 53% 1.1 25.9 58% 3.8 25.0 58% 0.2 31.0 68% 3.5 27.8 63% 2.8 24.6 79% 5.9 21.4 74% 1.7 26.0 89% 10.2 20.3 89% 5.5 22.4 74% 6.1 34.4 74% 6.9 26.5 42% 1.3 28.7
Squiggle 63% 1.9 22.1 58% 3.3 31.9 53% 2.8 25.6 68% 4.1 20.9 84% 5.2 31.1 79% 6.0 23.0 53% 1.1 26.1 68% 3.7 25.1 53% 0.4 28.0 74% 4.0 27.5 53% 1.2 25.1 84% 6.2 22.1 68% 2.2 21.8 89% 10.3 23.7 74% 5.3 20.1 84% 6.4 35.0 79% 6.8 25.4 47% 0.8 26.6
Elo Predicts! 58% 3.0 23.7 63% 3.6 33.2 68% 2.4 25.1 68% 4.8 21.6 74% 6.3 29.5 74% 6.0 21.3 53% 0.8 25.1 68% 4.1 28.1 58% -2.1 34.1 74% 3.2 24.9 63% 1.7 24.2 74% 5.4 28.4 68% 1.3 25.6 89% 10.8 23.2 84% 5.9 19.9 79% 5.7 34.7 74% 6.9 29.4 42% 1.1 27.7
Hyperion 65% 2.3 25.4 56% 3.1 30.9 71% 2.1 28.6 72% 4.0 19.2 83% 7.1 28.9 83% 8.6 18.7 72% 1.5 26.7 72% 5.0 23.3 58% -3.0 34.1 78% 4.2 26.9 56% 1.2 24.4 83% 5.7 26.1 67% 1.4 25.3 89% 11.0 19.9 79% 5.0 21.9 78% 5.2 32.2 78% 5.6 22.9 61% 0.1 30.7
AFL Scorigami 63% 2.9 23.9 53% 0.7 34.2 79% 4.0 23.2 74% 2.8 21.9 74% 5.5 32.2 74% 6.3 24.4 53% -1.0 29.4 58% 4.6 24.6 47% -4.5 32.4 68% 3.3 28.6 63% 1.1 24.6 84% 6.2 23.6 74% 2.6 23.2 89% 10.5 25.4 79% 5.0 22.6 74% 5.3 35.9 74% 6.5 26.2 53% 2.5 25.7
Massey Ratings 60% 2.6 26.0 53% 3.1 33.3 75% 3.2 27.6 76% 4.6 19.9 81% 5.7 29.0 81% 5.9 21.7 59% 0.7 27.8 75% 3.8 24.5 53% -2.3 32.7 71% 3.3 29.0 60% 1.8 23.2 88% 7.4 25.7 69% 3.5 21.7 88% 10.6 20.9 88% 6.3 22.7 88% 6.0 32.5 87% 7.8 23.2 59% 1.2 27.7