After Round 15, 2022.
Tips | Bits | MAE | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() 5 6 7 6 7 8 5 7 7 6 8 5 5 5 8 |
95 | 16.88 | 26.84 | 75.4% |
s10
5 6 8 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 7 4 5 4 8 |
92 | 21.24 | 25.66 | 73.0% |
![]() 5 6 6 6 7 8 5 7 7 6 8 3 5 5 8 |
92 | 20.22 | 26.23 | 73.0% |
![]() 5 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 4 5 5 7 |
91 | 22.76 | 25.79 | 72.2% |
![]() 4 6 6 6 6 8 6 7 7 6 7 4 5 5 8 |
91 | 22.59 | 25.11 | 72.2% |
![]() 4 6 7 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 7 3 5 5 8 |
91 | 22.54 | 25.72 | 72.2% |
![]() 6 6 7 7 5 7 6 7 6 6 6 4 5 5 8 |
91 | 17.54 | 27.26 | 72.2% |
![]() 5 6 7 5 7 8 5 8 6 6 7 3 5 5 7 |
90 | 24.13 | 24.87 | 71.4% |
![]() 5 4 7 6 7 8 5 6 6 7 7 5 5 4 8 |
90 | 21.46 | 25.43 | 71.4% |
![]() 5 6 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 4 5 5 8 |
90 | 19.11 | 26.20 | 71.4% |
![]() 5 7 7 6 6 8 5 7 7 6 7 3 5 4 7 |
90 | 18.86 | 26.47 | 71.4% |
![]() 6 6 6 4 7 8 6 7 7 7 7 4 4 4 6 |
89 | 16.76 | 26.37 | 70.6% |
![]() 5 6 7 5 6 7 5 7 6 6 7 4 5 5 8 |
89 | 16.22 | 26.85 | 70.6% |
Aggregate
5 5 7 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 3 5 4 8 |
88 | 20.55 | 25.70 | 69.8% |
![]() 4 5 7 5 6 7 5 7 6 7 7 4 5 5 8 |
88 | 17.06 | 26.94 | 69.8% |
![]() 4 6 7 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 3 5 4 8 |
88 | 16.88 | 26.79 | 69.8% |
![]() 5 6 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 5 5 8 |
88 | 14.11 | 26.77 | 69.8% |
Punters
6 5 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 6 7 3 5 4 7 |
87 | 22.27 | 25.16 | 69.0% |
![]() 4 6 7 5 6 8 5 7 6 7 7 3 5 4 7 |
87 | 20.09 | 25.59 | 69.0% |
![]() 5 6 7 6 5 8 5 7 6 6 6 3 5 5 7 |
87 | 15.98 | 26.99 | 69.0% |
![]() 6 5 6 4 6 8 8 6 7 6 6 4 4 4 7 |
87 | 13.11 | 26.79 | 69.0% |
![]() 6 5 6 4 6 8 5 7 7 6 7 3 5 4 7 |
86 | 20.87 | 26.26 | 68.3% |
![]() 6 4 6 4 6 8 5 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 8 |
86 | 14.24 | 26.72 | 68.3% |
![]() 5 4 6 4 6 8 6 6 6 6 8 3 5 4 8 |
85 | 23.02 | 25.14 | 67.5% |
![]() 4 5 6 5 7 8 5 6 6 6 6 4 5 4 7 |
84 | 22.79 | 25.11 | 66.7% |
![]() 5 5 6 4 7 7 5 7 5 6 8 2 3 3 8 |
81 | 14.87 | 27.33 | 64.3% |
"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.
"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.
"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.
"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).
[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?
MAE is the best long-term guide to a model's accuracy. It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) However, it doesn't matter whether you get the winner right, which makes it somewhat divorced from what people really care about.
Bits is a good compromise between reliability and what people usually care about, which is tipping winners correctly—especially when you're confident.
Tips is the most common measure, which makes it handy for comparing across comps. And it's what people generally want to know: How many tips did you get right? But it's easy to get lucky or unlucky in 50/50 games, so it's a poor indicator of future performance.
By Round
By Team
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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71% | 2.1 | 22.6 | 86% | 3.0 | 26.1 | 79% | 1.6 | 19.4 | 71% | 0.3 | 20.2 | 71% | 2.2 | 23.7 | 43% | -0.4 | 30.9 | 79% | 2.4 | 20.3 | 79% | 1.4 | 27.3 | 93% | 3.0 | 27.8 | 64% | 0.6 | 27.9 | 79% | 2.1 | 28.9 | 100% | 5.8 | 37.3 | 79% | 1.9 | 23.1 | 86% | 2.1 | 24.6 | 57% | 0.7 | 25.4 | 71% | 1.0 | 26.2 | 71% | 2.4 | 44.1 | 79% | 1.5 | 27.2 |
s10 | 64% | 2.5 | 21.5 | 86% | 4.4 | 22.9 | 64% | 1.2 | 20.3 | 64% | 0.3 | 21.4 | 71% | 2.1 | 25.5 | 50% | -1.6 | 33.2 | 71% | 1.8 | 21.9 | 71% | 2.6 | 25.2 | 86% | 3.7 | 26.6 | 71% | 0.8 | 29.6 | 79% | 3.4 | 25.0 | 100% | 8.4 | 29.9 | 71% | 2.6 | 21.2 | 79% | 2.0 | 24.0 | 64% | 1.8 | 22.3 | 71% | 0.4 | 27.7 | 79% | 4.0 | 38.5 | 71% | 1.7 | 25.4 |
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64% | 2.7 | 21.9 | 71% | 3.6 | 26.0 | 86% | 1.6 | 19.5 | 57% | -0.2 | 21.1 | 79% | 2.1 | 23.9 | 43% | -1.0 | 31.4 | 64% | 2.4 | 22.9 | 79% | 2.3 | 25.9 | 86% | 3.7 | 27.0 | 64% | 0.9 | 28.7 | 79% | 3.1 | 25.6 | 100% | 7.8 | 32.9 | 79% | 2.1 | 23.3 | 93% | 2.7 | 23.1 | 64% | 0.9 | 24.0 | 64% | 0.3 | 27.1 | 71% | 3.6 | 41.8 | 71% | 1.8 | 26.1 |
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64% | 2.1 | 24.3 | 86% | 4.2 | 24.1 | 71% | 2.3 | 17.4 | 64% | 0.3 | 23.2 | 71% | 1.5 | 27.5 | 57% | -0.7 | 30.6 | 57% | 1.8 | 23.1 | 86% | 3.1 | 23.7 | 86% | 4.0 | 27.6 | 57% | 1.1 | 29.9 | 79% | 3.7 | 25.3 | 100% | 8.6 | 31.3 | 79% | 2.5 | 20.5 | 64% | 2.7 | 22.1 | 64% | 1.5 | 23.3 | 71% | 1.0 | 26.2 | 79% | 4.3 | 37.6 | 64% | 1.5 | 26.5 |
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71% | 2.7 | 20.4 | 86% | 5.3 | 22.3 | 57% | 1.1 | 20.5 | 64% | 0.4 | 20.1 | 71% | 3.0 | 23.5 | 50% | -2.6 | 34.0 | 71% | 1.4 | 21.2 | 86% | 2.8 | 23.8 | 79% | 4.1 | 26.0 | 57% | 1.2 | 28.3 | 79% | 2.5 | 25.9 | 100% | 9.2 | 27.7 | 86% | 4.0 | 20.2 | 86% | 2.6 | 22.9 | 64% | 2.5 | 21.5 | 57% | -0.1 | 28.7 | 64% | 3.4 | 39.2 | 71% | 1.7 | 25.7 |
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64% | 1.4 | 24.1 | 79% | 4.7 | 23.3 | 71% | 2.3 | 18.9 | 57% | 0.5 | 21.9 | 79% | 2.0 | 24.2 | 36% | -2.0 | 33.6 | 64% | 0.9 | 23.5 | 71% | 3.2 | 25.9 | 86% | 4.2 | 26.0 | 79% | 1.3 | 30.3 | 79% | 3.4 | 24.1 | 100% | 8.4 | 30.1 | 86% | 3.6 | 19.9 | 86% | 2.6 | 23.3 | 64% | 2.2 | 22.3 | 71% | -0.1 | 26.8 | 64% | 3.4 | 41.1 | 64% | 2.9 | 23.4 |
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71% | 1.3 | 26.5 | 79% | 3.7 | 25.9 | 57% | 0.2 | 22.1 | 57% | -0.0 | 22.2 | 64% | 2.4 | 25.7 | 57% | -1.1 | 32.1 | 79% | 2.1 | 21.3 | 71% | 2.4 | 27.2 | 86% | 4.0 | 26.3 | 64% | 0.4 | 29.3 | 79% | 2.6 | 28.0 | 93% | 7.1 | 33.8 | 79% | 1.6 | 24.4 | 79% | 1.7 | 25.4 | 79% | 2.2 | 23.3 | 64% | 0.4 | 27.8 | 71% | 3.3 | 42.2 | 71% | 1.0 | 27.3 |
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71% | 2.2 | 20.9 | 71% | 5.2 | 21.6 | 50% | 0.5 | 21.7 | 64% | 0.9 | 21.0 | 79% | 2.5 | 23.6 | 36% | -2.6 | 36.1 | 64% | 0.6 | 23.8 | 71% | 3.1 | 23.8 | 79% | 4.1 | 24.7 | 79% | 2.0 | 29.9 | 79% | 4.0 | 27.1 | 100% | 9.6 | 27.1 | 79% | 2.8 | 20.4 | 79% | 2.4 | 22.9 | 71% | 2.8 | 19.6 | 71% | 0.2 | 27.5 | 71% | 5.3 | 34.4 | 71% | 2.6 | 21.4 |
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64% | 2.4 | 21.4 | 86% | 4.6 | 21.1 | 64% | 1.4 | 19.9 | 64% | 0.3 | 21.9 | 71% | 1.9 | 26.6 | 50% | -1.2 | 32.7 | 57% | 1.6 | 24.7 | 79% | 2.6 | 24.8 | 71% | 3.5 | 24.8 | 71% | 1.1 | 31.2 | 79% | 4.3 | 24.5 | 100% | 8.6 | 25.0 | 71% | 2.9 | 19.7 | 71% | 1.5 | 26.9 | 64% | 1.0 | 23.5 | 64% | -0.2 | 30.7 | 79% | 4.3 | 35.8 | 79% | 2.4 | 22.5 |
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64% | 2.1 | 22.1 | 79% | 4.6 | 23.4 | 57% | 0.8 | 20.8 | 64% | 1.1 | 21.2 | 71% | 2.1 | 26.1 | 43% | -1.6 | 32.6 | 79% | 1.8 | 22.0 | 79% | 2.5 | 24.6 | 86% | 4.0 | 26.4 | 57% | -0.3 | 30.4 | 79% | 2.7 | 26.9 | 100% | 7.8 | 32.4 | 79% | 1.6 | 23.3 | 71% | 1.9 | 23.2 | 50% | 1.3 | 23.6 | 71% | 1.2 | 26.1 | 79% | 3.5 | 39.6 | 79% | 1.1 | 26.8 |
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64% | 3.1 | 20.9 | 64% | 2.7 | 28.1 | 71% | 1.0 | 22.2 | 64% | -0.2 | 21.3 | 71% | 1.5 | 25.9 | 43% | -0.9 | 32.1 | 64% | 2.2 | 22.4 | 79% | 2.4 | 25.1 | 93% | 3.6 | 27.4 | 71% | 1.4 | 26.7 | 71% | 2.6 | 27.1 | 100% | 7.2 | 33.8 | 71% | 2.5 | 21.6 | 79% | 2.4 | 23.4 | 71% | 1.3 | 23.6 | 64% | 0.5 | 25.7 | 71% | 3.2 | 41.7 | 71% | 1.2 | 27.4 |
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71% | 1.2 | 23.4 | 79% | 4.5 | 24.7 | 64% | 0.7 | 19.7 | 64% | -0.9 | 25.6 | 79% | 3.3 | 23.1 | 64% | -2.1 | 31.9 | 57% | 1.5 | 24.2 | 64% | 0.8 | 25.7 | 93% | 5.5 | 24.5 | 57% | -0.5 | 33.2 | 79% | 3.3 | 29.1 | 100% | 10.2 | 24.7 | 64% | -0.4 | 26.6 | 64% | 0.8 | 25.9 | 64% | 0.9 | 22.9 | 64% | -0.3 | 27.8 | 79% | 3.8 | 38.1 | 64% | 1.0 | 23.5 |
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71% | 2.2 | 22.6 | 79% | 4.0 | 23.2 | 50% | 0.1 | 22.1 | 57% | -0.8 | 23.5 | 64% | 2.1 | 24.9 | 50% | -2.5 | 34.4 | 79% | 2.6 | 19.5 | 71% | 2.2 | 26.0 | 79% | 3.3 | 27.7 | 57% | 0.1 | 30.7 | 79% | 2.6 | 27.5 | 100% | 8.4 | 30.3 | 79% | 1.7 | 24.0 | 79% | 1.5 | 27.6 | 57% | 0.6 | 23.7 | 64% | -0.2 | 29.4 | 79% | 3.4 | 39.2 | 79% | 1.2 | 26.9 |
Aggregate | 64% | 2.5 | 21.1 | 79% | 4.3 | 23.4 | 50% | 0.7 | 20.9 | 64% | 0.2 | 21.5 | 71% | 2.2 | 25.0 | 43% | -1.6 | 33.2 | 71% | 1.9 | 21.9 | 71% | 2.5 | 25.2 | 79% | 3.8 | 26.4 | 64% | 0.7 | 29.7 | 79% | 3.3 | 25.5 | 100% | 8.3 | 30.0 | 71% | 2.4 | 21.8 | 71% | 2.0 | 23.9 | 64% | 1.8 | 22.3 | 64% | 0.3 | 27.5 | 79% | 4.0 | 38.2 | 71% | 1.7 | 25.2 |
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71% | 2.6 | 21.3 | 79% | 3.2 | 26.2 | 57% | 0.4 | 21.7 | 57% | -0.4 | 23.3 | 64% | 1.7 | 26.2 | 50% | -1.6 | 32.3 | 71% | 2.5 | 20.3 | 71% | 1.8 | 27.9 | 64% | 3.0 | 28.4 | 64% | -0.2 | 30.4 | 79% | 3.5 | 25.2 | 100% | 8.1 | 32.9 | 71% | 0.9 | 24.5 | 71% | 1.2 | 26.8 | 64% | 1.7 | 22.9 | 71% | 0.4 | 26.9 | 79% | 4.1 | 39.8 | 71% | 1.0 | 28.0 |
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64% | 2.5 | 22.0 | 79% | 3.6 | 25.6 | 50% | -0.2 | 22.6 | 64% | -0.3 | 22.5 | 64% | 1.5 | 25.9 | 50% | -2.0 | 33.2 | 64% | 2.1 | 21.9 | 71% | 2.1 | 26.6 | 79% | 3.4 | 27.4 | 64% | 0.8 | 28.6 | 79% | 2.8 | 26.5 | 100% | 7.1 | 35.1 | 71% | 1.4 | 23.1 | 71% | 1.8 | 24.3 | 71% | 1.4 | 23.1 | 64% | 0.5 | 27.1 | 79% | 3.8 | 40.4 | 71% | 1.3 | 26.5 |
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64% | 1.7 | 22.5 | 86% | 4.7 | 21.5 | 50% | -1.8 | 24.1 | 57% | -0.5 | 23.6 | 64% | 2.1 | 26.8 | 43% | -3.3 | 36.0 | 71% | 1.0 | 23.7 | 71% | 3.3 | 26.4 | 71% | 4.0 | 25.9 | 57% | -1.2 | 31.5 | 79% | 2.6 | 29.7 | 100% | 8.3 | 30.2 | 71% | 0.1 | 25.3 | 79% | 1.9 | 24.4 | 64% | 1.5 | 22.0 | 71% | -0.3 | 27.6 | 79% | 2.8 | 36.5 | 79% | 1.4 | 24.1 |
Punters | 64% | 2.9 | 18.7 | 71% | 5.3 | 20.7 | 50% | 0.8 | 22.1 | 64% | 0.3 | 21.5 | 79% | 2.5 | 23.7 | 36% | -2.5 | 35.7 | 57% | 1.3 | 23.3 | 79% | 2.8 | 24.3 | 71% | 3.6 | 27.2 | 71% | 0.7 | 31.7 | 79% | 3.3 | 23.7 | 100% | 9.7 | 27.8 | 71% | 2.8 | 22.6 | 71% | 2.0 | 22.5 | 64% | 1.9 | 21.4 | 64% | -0.3 | 28.1 | 79% | 5.4 | 34.3 | 71% | 2.1 | 23.7 |
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64% | 2.9 | 19.4 | 79% | 3.4 | 25.2 | 57% | 1.1 | 20.5 | 64% | 0.3 | 22.2 | 71% | 2.7 | 22.8 | 50% | -0.9 | 31.6 | 64% | 2.5 | 20.3 | 71% | 1.7 | 26.6 | 71% | 3.3 | 27.9 | 57% | 0.4 | 29.5 | 79% | 3.4 | 25.1 | 100% | 7.6 | 30.3 | 71% | 2.0 | 22.9 | 64% | 2.3 | 22.9 | 64% | 1.0 | 23.1 | 64% | 0.7 | 26.8 | 79% | 4.1 | 38.3 | 71% | 1.7 | 25.1 |
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64% | 1.9 | 23.0 | 71% | 4.8 | 22.9 | 50% | -1.2 | 23.8 | 64% | -0.1 | 23.0 | 71% | 0.8 | 29.7 | 50% | -3.5 | 34.9 | 57% | 1.9 | 22.9 | 71% | 2.5 | 27.6 | 79% | 4.2 | 24.6 | 57% | -1.2 | 32.9 | 79% | 2.6 | 30.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 29.3 | 71% | 1.8 | 23.4 | 64% | 1.7 | 25.8 | 71% | 1.9 | 22.0 | 71% | -0.8 | 28.6 | 79% | 4.8 | 34.4 | 71% | 0.7 | 27.2 |
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71% | 2.1 | 21.2 | 79% | 2.6 | 25.6 | 36% | -1.4 | 25.3 | 64% | -0.0 | 20.5 | 79% | 0.3 | 26.4 | 50% | -1.7 | 33.7 | 71% | 2.2 | 21.9 | 64% | 1.4 | 27.5 | 86% | 3.3 | 25.4 | 57% | 0.2 | 30.2 | 79% | 2.7 | 27.7 | 93% | 6.7 | 30.3 | 64% | 1.0 | 23.5 | 57% | 0.8 | 27.3 | 71% | 2.3 | 20.6 | 71% | 0.2 | 26.3 | 71% | 1.9 | 43.4 | 79% | 1.7 | 25.3 |
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71% | 3.6 | 19.6 | 79% | 4.7 | 22.9 | 57% | 0.4 | 23.9 | 64% | -0.1 | 23.2 | 71% | 2.9 | 24.2 | 36% | -1.3 | 35.6 | 71% | 2.6 | 20.9 | 71% | 1.3 | 26.8 | 79% | 3.0 | 27.2 | 64% | 1.1 | 31.6 | 79% | 3.5 | 24.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 27.4 | 71% | 2.6 | 23.9 | 64% | 0.9 | 26.4 | 50% | 0.9 | 23.1 | 57% | 0.1 | 28.9 | 79% | 4.5 | 39.6 | 64% | 2.0 | 23.6 |
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71% | 1.6 | 23.3 | 79% | 1.3 | 26.4 | 50% | 0.1 | 24.0 | 64% | -0.4 | 22.4 | 71% | 2.4 | 24.8 | 57% | -2.3 | 29.4 | 64% | 2.2 | 23.2 | 64% | 2.6 | 27.4 | 71% | 3.8 | 27.2 | 57% | -2.7 | 31.1 | 79% | 2.1 | 25.4 | 93% | 7.1 | 30.8 | 71% | 2.5 | 23.4 | 71% | 2.1 | 25.2 | 71% | 1.7 | 25.0 | 50% | -1.2 | 26.6 | 71% | 4.5 | 40.2 | 71% | 1.0 | 25.3 |
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71% | 2.4 | 21.2 | 71% | 5.6 | 21.6 | 57% | 0.6 | 20.8 | 71% | 0.3 | 21.2 | 71% | 3.3 | 22.6 | 36% | -2.4 | 34.2 | 50% | 0.8 | 23.3 | 71% | 2.8 | 24.6 | 79% | 4.0 | 26.5 | 57% | 1.3 | 28.9 | 79% | 4.0 | 24.4 | 100% | 9.6 | 28.1 | 71% | 3.9 | 19.8 | 71% | 2.2 | 23.3 | 57% | 2.8 | 20.8 | 57% | -0.2 | 28.7 | 71% | 3.7 | 37.7 | 71% | 1.3 | 24.9 |
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71% | 3.6 | 18.5 | 86% | 4.8 | 21.6 | 43% | 1.1 | 20.5 | 57% | -0.5 | 21.7 | 71% | 2.2 | 25.5 | 36% | -2.5 | 34.2 | 71% | 1.4 | 23.6 | 64% | 2.5 | 24.9 | 71% | 3.7 | 26.6 | 50% | 1.3 | 28.6 | 79% | 4.0 | 24.8 | 100% | 9.9 | 26.9 | 71% | 3.8 | 19.8 | 71% | 1.9 | 25.0 | 57% | 2.6 | 20.4 | 57% | -0.3 | 28.8 | 71% | 4.4 | 35.8 | 71% | 1.9 | 24.8 |
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71% | 2.1 | 22.4 | 71% | 3.6 | 23.2 | 57% | 0.6 | 21.9 | 57% | 0.2 | 20.5 | 64% | 1.0 | 28.4 | 36% | -2.7 | 35.2 | 50% | 0.9 | 24.9 | 71% | 2.3 | 27.6 | 64% | 3.0 | 27.6 | 50% | 0.2 | 29.4 | 79% | 2.9 | 25.8 | 100% | 6.8 | 33.6 | 64% | 1.4 | 24.9 | 79% | 2.1 | 25.3 | 57% | 1.6 | 23.4 | 50% | -0.2 | 29.5 | 71% | 3.2 | 39.3 | 64% | 0.6 | 29.1 |