LEADERBOARD

After Round 11, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6

78 25.8692 25.87 26.0012 26.00 78.7879 78.8%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5

78 25.0564 25.06 24.9088 24.91 78.7879 78.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6

76 17.1004 17.10 25.9342 25.93 76.7677 76.8%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5

75 25.4822 25.48 26.0066 26.01 75.7576 75.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5

75 22.9839 22.98 26.4990 26.50 75.7576 75.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5

74 24.3535 24.35 26.7879 26.79 74.7475 74.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5

74 23.6532 23.65 26.0646 26.06 74.7475 74.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5

74 19.0272 19.03 26.5657 26.57 74.7475 74.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5

73 26.1502 26.15 26.4188 26.42 73.7374 73.7%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4

73 25.8333 25.83 25.7153 25.72 73.7374 73.7%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5

73 24.9478 24.95 26.3118 26.31 73.7374 73.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5

73 22.6434 22.64 26.2929 26.29 73.7374 73.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4

72 25.5235 25.52 26.9923 26.99 72.7273 72.7%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5

72 22.6742 22.67 26.8508 26.85 72.7273 72.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5

72 22.4038 22.40 28.0505 28.05 72.7273 72.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5

72 21.7671 21.77 26.8297 26.83 72.7273 72.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4

71 22.8013 22.80 26.6486 26.65 71.7172 71.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5

71 21.1413 21.14 27.7521 27.75 71.7172 71.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4

70 20.8238 20.82 26.3909 26.39 70.7071 70.7%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5

69 23.2723 23.27 25.9695 25.97 69.6970 69.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5

69 22.9909 22.99 27.3022 27.30 69.6970 69.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5

69 22.2619 22.26 26.7576 26.76 69.6970 69.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5

69 21.9548 21.95 26.7379 26.74 69.6970 69.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5

69 21.0878 21.09 28.7980 28.80 69.6970 69.7%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4

68 21.4369 21.44 27.2626 27.26 68.6869 68.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5

68 19.4845 19.48 26.7111 26.71 68.6869 68.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5

67 18.9541 18.95 27.1947 27.19 67.6768 67.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5

67 18.2977 18.30 27.0778 27.08 67.6768 67.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5

65 17.1876 17.19 27.6869 27.69 65.6566 65.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5

63 17.1406 17.14 27.4667 27.47 †9 70.0000 70.0%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5

53 18.8285 18.83 28.1757 28.18 †25 71.6216 71.6%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 91% 3.7 16.5 73% 1.9 32.3 73% 2.8 22.7 91% 3.8 25.5 82% 4.5 30.9 91% 5.4 13.0 82% 2.8 31.4 82% 3.0 26.4 73% 1.3 29.7 73% 2.6 25.0 55% -1.3 28.3 73% 2.8 24.4 73% 0.7 27.3 82% 4.5 23.8 82% 3.1 17.4 100% 5.5 33.9 64% 1.9 32.2 82% 2.6 27.4
Wheelo Ratings 91% 3.2 12.5 64% 1.7 31.1 73% 2.8 23.1 91% 3.6 24.1 82% 4.8 30.1 100% 5.6 11.7 82% 2.1 31.1 82% 3.4 25.2 73% 2.5 27.8 82% 1.7 23.9 55% -1.4 28.9 73% 3.2 22.7 64% -0.3 26.7 82% 4.4 23.8 91% 3.3 16.9 100% 5.2 32.4 64% 2.6 30.6 73% 1.7 25.8
Holy Grail Ratings 82% 1.9 15.1 64% 1.3 32.7 73% 1.5 21.2 91% 2.7 25.6 91% 3.2 31.3 73% 2.8 16.8 73% 1.6 29.3 91% 2.5 23.8 73% 1.3 31.2 73% 1.6 22.7 73% 0.9 23.8 73% 2.0 23.9 55% 0.1 29.0 82% 2.4 28.2 91% 2.0 19.8 100% 3.5 33.7 64% 2.3 31.8 64% 0.5 26.9
s10 82% 4.1 14.5 64% 1.7 33.4 64% 2.6 23.7 91% 3.8 23.7 82% 4.4 31.1 91% 4.8 13.4 73% 2.1 31.8 73% 3.0 25.6 64% 1.7 30.2 82% 2.3 24.3 55% -0.5 27.6 73% 3.3 23.4 73% 0.2 28.1 82% 5.0 23.8 91% 3.5 18.7 91% 4.8 34.8 64% 2.6 31.8 73% 1.4 28.1
Glicko Ratings 91% 3.9 15.0 64% 1.6 33.4 64% 3.1 23.4 91% 3.4 24.6 82% 3.4 31.8 91% 4.5 13.7 82% 2.0 32.7 82% 2.8 25.7 64% 1.6 29.9 73% 1.9 26.8 45% -1.2 28.6 73% 2.8 25.0 73% 0.4 29.2 82% 4.3 25.1 82% 3.3 18.2 91% 4.5 35.0 64% 2.4 31.7 73% 1.3 27.3
ZaphBot 82% 4.4 13.5 64% 1.5 34.6 73% 2.8 26.2 91% 4.7 27.5 82% 4.4 29.1 82% 5.5 12.0 64% 1.2 32.5 73% 2.1 27.4 64% 0.5 34.2 82% 1.7 23.7 64% -0.0 27.1 64% 2.8 27.1 64% -1.1 30.4 82% 6.1 22.1 91% 4.5 19.3 100% 5.8 31.4 64% 2.1 33.0 64% -0.1 31.2
Aggregate 82% 3.6 14.5 55% 1.6 34.1 73% 2.6 23.5 91% 3.6 23.9 82% 4.2 30.9 82% 4.4 13.8 73% 1.9 30.7 73% 2.9 25.5 64% 1.4 31.7 82% 2.1 23.4 64% -0.0 26.7 73% 3.0 23.8 73% 0.1 28.7 82% 4.8 23.5 91% 3.3 19.1 82% 4.3 35.0 64% 2.6 32.3 64% 0.9 28.3
Cheap Stats 73% 2.4 18.3 64% 1.5 33.3 73% 2.3 20.4 91% 1.9 27.5 73% 2.8 34.6 91% 4.6 14.3 82% 1.9 31.8 73% 2.7 25.8 64% 0.8 33.2 82% 1.4 25.5 55% 0.3 24.2 73% 1.6 26.2 64% 1.0 27.6 73% 3.4 24.3 82% 2.2 20.0 91% 3.9 31.2 73% 2.4 33.5 73% 0.8 26.6
Don't Blame the Data 82% 4.5 15.2 55% 1.5 34.5 73% 2.9 24.6 91% 4.0 23.2 82% 5.1 31.3 73% 4.7 14.9 73% 2.2 30.5 73% 3.2 25.1 64% 1.6 30.8 73% 2.1 24.5 64% -0.6 27.3 73% 3.4 23.9 73% -0.1 29.5 82% 5.8 23.3 91% 4.4 18.8 82% 3.9 35.7 64% 2.3 32.8 64% 1.3 29.6
Punters 82% 3.7 14.4 64% 1.3 33.9 73% 3.3 22.8 82% 3.5 26.3 82% 4.5 33.8 100% 6.0 11.5 82% 2.5 29.0 82% 3.6 24.2 64% 1.8 30.6 82% 2.0 24.9 45% -1.1 29.2 64% 2.7 24.6 55% -0.3 27.9 82% 5.3 20.7 73% 2.9 18.4 100% 6.1 29.7 64% 2.3 33.1 55% 1.7 27.8
AFLalytics 82% 3.4 16.0 64% 2.2 32.2 64% 2.4 23.4 91% 3.1 25.4 82% 4.1 32.7 82% 4.3 15.7 82% 2.6 31.6 82% 3.2 25.0 73% 2.3 28.8 91% 2.6 25.5 45% 0.3 27.1 73% 3.8 20.4 55% 0.3 28.4 82% 4.2 25.8 73% 2.7 20.4 91% 4.5 36.0 64% 3.0 31.6 55% 1.0 27.7
What Snoo Thinks 82% 2.5 16.1 73% 1.0 35.0 82% 3.7 17.2 82% 3.2 25.3 82% 3.6 31.7 73% 3.6 17.8 64% 1.7 31.3 64% 2.4 26.7 64% 1.7 31.2 64% 1.2 25.9 64% -0.9 26.7 73% 3.5 22.0 64% 0.3 28.8 73% 3.7 27.6 91% 3.6 18.4 91% 4.7 34.6 64% 3.7 31.4 82% 2.0 25.6
Matter of Stats 82% 4.2 16.5 64% 1.8 33.9 73% 2.3 22.2 91% 3.8 24.8 82% 3.9 35.7 82% 4.1 13.4 73% 1.6 33.5 82% 3.4 24.2 64% 1.7 31.5 73% 3.0 24.5 55% 0.5 25.7 64% 2.7 28.3 45% -0.3 29.8 82% 5.1 20.6 82% 3.8 19.7 100% 4.8 37.8 64% 2.9 33.3 55% 1.6 30.4
AFL Lab 73% 3.5 18.5 55% 1.7 34.9 64% 1.5 27.5 82% 3.4 21.9 82% 4.0 30.3 73% 2.8 18.8 73% 2.9 30.6 82% 3.7 23.2 64% 1.1 29.9 82% 2.9 22.4 73% 1.7 24.9 73% 2.9 24.1 73% 0.3 29.3 82% 4.3 25.1 82% 3.3 18.1 82% 3.2 37.7 64% 2.4 33.4 55% -0.2 32.7
The Wooden Finger 91% 3.9 16.6 55% 1.0 36.3 73% 3.3 25.8 100% 4.6 25.3 82% 4.4 31.3 82% 3.9 14.5 64% 0.9 33.0 64% 3.4 25.3 64% -0.1 35.3 73% 1.8 25.9 64% -0.3 27.7 73% 3.4 25.7 73% -0.3 33.0 82% 5.3 21.5 91% 3.9 18.2 73% 3.2 40.5 64% 2.6 35.3 45% -0.1 33.7
AFL Scorigami 82% 4.1 16.8 55% 0.3 33.9 91% 2.8 20.3 91% 2.5 25.6 73% 3.5 33.0 82% 4.3 17.1 64% 1.7 34.7 55% 2.9 25.9 73% 0.0 31.1 73% 2.8 22.6 64% 0.9 25.4 73% 2.8 23.0 64% 0.3 26.5 82% 4.7 25.9 82% 3.2 21.4 82% 3.0 37.7 64% 1.9 33.8 64% 1.7 28.1
footycharts 73% 3.1 15.3 55% 1.2 34.7 73% 2.8 22.9 91% 3.6 25.2 82% 3.8 31.8 82% 4.6 14.7 82% 2.6 30.4 82% 3.3 25.8 64% 1.9 29.6 73% 2.3 24.7 55% 0.3 26.5 82% 3.8 20.5 55% -0.9 29.6 82% 3.7 27.0 82% 2.9 20.1 82% 4.2 36.3 73% 2.6 34.2 27% -0.3 30.3
The Cruncher 82% 4.5 17.7 64% 1.6 34.0 64% 2.5 24.4 82% 3.3 26.0 82% 4.0 32.4 91% 4.8 14.3 64% 1.1 34.1 64% 2.2 28.4 64% 1.0 30.5 73% 0.9 27.9 45% -2.3 29.9 73% 2.8 23.6 73% 0.6 30.6 82% 4.6 24.9 82% 3.0 21.3 82% 4.3 36.3 64% 2.0 33.3 64% 1.4 30.1
HBin 82% 3.8 17.2 73% 3.0 31.5 64% 2.1 25.4 91% 3.7 21.8 82% 3.0 33.5 82% 4.2 14.2 64% 1.5 30.3 64% 2.6 26.9 73% 0.9 32.5 73% 1.9 23.2 45% -1.9 27.2 64% 2.8 23.2 55% -1.1 30.6 82% 5.8 23.2 91% 3.8 18.5 82% 4.0 34.4 64% 1.1 34.0 45% 0.4 27.7
Winnable 73% 3.5 15.1 64% 0.6 33.3 45% 0.9 24.4 73% 3.2 24.9 82% 4.5 31.0 91% 4.4 14.6 73% 2.3 30.6 73% 3.1 27.1 64% 2.7 28.1 82% 2.3 22.5 45% -1.1 28.6 73% 4.5 18.5 55% 0.7 25.7 82% 4.1 28.3 55% 2.5 21.1 100% 4.6 35.4 64% 3.2 31.2 64% 0.8 27.1
In The Game 82% 4.4 18.4 64% 0.9 34.7 55% 2.6 23.2 91% 3.6 25.0 82% 4.9 32.6 82% 4.8 13.0 64% 1.8 34.2 73% 3.2 25.2 73% 0.7 33.7 64% 2.1 22.4 36% -2.3 32.5 64% 3.5 26.3 45% -1.9 30.7 82% 6.0 20.4 73% 3.5 22.0 100% 7.4 29.7 64% -0.3 39.1 64% 1.3 28.4
Live Ladders 73% 2.8 17.6 45% 1.8 33.0 64% 2.3 20.5 91% 3.4 22.7 82% 4.0 32.1 73% 3.4 18.4 73% 2.8 28.9 73% 2.8 27.3 64% 2.0 31.8 73% 2.3 24.5 64% 0.9 24.4 82% 3.2 22.6 55% -0.1 29.1 82% 3.6 29.8 64% 2.3 22.2 82% 3.6 34.9 73% 3.1 33.3 45% 0.2 28.6
Stattraction 82% 3.7 14.5 55% 1.2 35.4 73% 2.6 25.2 91% 4.3 22.7 82% 3.9 31.8 82% 3.9 14.2 64% 1.4 29.9 64% 2.8 26.6 64% 0.9 32.2 64% 1.2 24.9 64% 0.2 25.7 64% 2.6 25.7 55% 0.5 29.0 82% 5.0 22.3 82% 3.9 19.1 73% 3.0 37.9 64% 3.0 32.5 55% -0.1 31.8
Graft 73% 2.7 21.5 55% 1.7 36.2 73% 2.8 28.7 91% 3.8 26.2 82% 3.6 34.3 82% 3.5 14.0 55% 1.7 32.4 64% 2.5 27.7 73% 1.4 31.6 73% 1.5 25.5 64% 0.8 27.6 73% 2.7 24.5 64% -0.4 33.8 82% 4.5 22.4 82% 2.8 24.2 73% 3.3 38.0 64% 3.1 36.6 36% 0.0 33.3
Informed Stats 73% 3.5 17.0 55% 0.9 37.9 64% 3.3 25.5 82% 3.3 24.5 82% 4.6 29.2 82% 4.8 9.5 64% -0.3 33.5 64% 2.0 28.7 64% 0.9 34.7 73% 2.2 25.5 45% -1.9 28.7 73% 2.9 26.6 64% -0.4 29.5 82% 6.2 20.1 82% 3.5 22.0 73% 3.4 36.4 64% 3.1 33.3 55% 1.0 28.1
PlusSixOne 73% 2.8 14.8 64% 0.9 36.2 64% 2.2 24.0 82% 3.3 25.9 82% 4.2 26.1 91% 5.0 10.8 64% 1.4 30.4 55% 2.2 27.2 55% 0.2 33.9 73% 2.0 22.3 55% 0.5 25.8 64% 2.5 21.8 55% -0.0 29.0 82% 4.2 25.6 82% 3.1 21.4 82% 3.9 35.9 64% 1.8 36.3 55% -1.1 33.4
Squiggle 82% 2.5 14.5 64% 1.9 32.7 45% 0.9 26.8 82% 3.1 25.3 82% 3.0 32.5 82% 3.4 16.7 55% 1.3 32.2 73% 1.9 28.3 64% 2.0 26.8 73% 1.3 26.8 45% -0.7 29.4 73% 3.1 23.4 55% -0.0 27.7 82% 4.1 26.1 64% 2.7 19.1 91% 4.4 37.0 64% 3.2 33.8 45% -0.2 30.4
The Footycast 73% 2.9 15.6 55% 1.1 34.8 73% 2.2 24.7 73% 3.0 26.6 82% 3.4 29.3 82% 3.7 15.7 64% 1.5 33.2 64% 1.9 27.4 55% 0.2 33.2 73% 1.8 23.7 64% 0.8 24.6 73% 2.1 23.1 55% -0.6 28.5 82% 4.3 25.1 82% 2.9 20.9 73% 3.2 37.5 64% 2.2 32.9 36% 0.2 30.5
Elo Predicts! 73% 3.3 16.6 55% 0.9 35.6 64% 1.7 26.2 82% 3.4 24.0 73% 4.1 26.7 73% 3.7 13.6 55% 1.3 30.9 64% 2.2 30.5 73% 0.2 37.2 73% 1.1 22.8 55% -0.1 26.3 55% 1.7 31.5 55% -1.0 30.2 82% 4.7 24.1 82% 2.8 20.1 73% 2.8 36.7 64% 2.3 33.7 36% -0.7 31.6
Hyperion 78% 3.2 16.9 50% 0.3 35.4 67% 1.4 31.8 80% 2.8 22.6 80% 4.2 30.0 80% 5.2 12.0 70% 1.4 33.5 80% 3.6 23.2 73% -0.3 37.0 90% 2.6 23.1 50% 0.2 26.7 70% 2.1 27.1 50% -0.8 33.3 80% 5.2 21.5 73% 2.2 22.2 80% 2.6 30.1 60% 0.5 27.9 50% -2.1 39.1
Massey Ratings 86% 3.2 19.4 44% 0.4 37.3 75% 2.0 30.5 89% 3.0 21.9 75% 3.1 32.6 88% 3.3 13.2 67% 1.5 37.1 75% 1.6 27.1 67% 0.9 34.4 67% 1.9 25.8 57% 0.7 26.9 75% 3.2 29.1 50% 0.0 27.6 75% 4.1 21.1 88% 3.4 22.5 89% 3.2 32.4 71% 2.5 30.4 56% -0.3 33.6