LEADERBOARD

After Round 5, 2021.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
AFL Lab

7 9 7 5 7

35 5.91 24.95 77.8%
AFLalytics

6 9 6 7 6

34 6.91 25.41 75.6%
Footy Maths Institute

6 8 6 6 7

33 5.61 26.11 73.3%
Squiggle

6 7 6 7 6

32 6.80 25.16 71.1%
Punters

5 7 6 7 7

32 6.45 24.78 71.1%
Aggregate

6 8 5 6 7

32 6.27 25.45 71.1%
s10

6 8 6 6 6

32 6.24 25.75 71.1%
The Flag

4 8 5 7 8

32 5.40 25.13 71.1%
Graft

6 8 5 5 8

32 4.62 25.93 71.1%
Massey Ratings

4 7 7 6 7

31 5.33 27.59 68.9%
The Cruncher

5 7 5 6 8

31 4.20 26.93 68.9%
Live Ladders

5 7 5 7 6

30 7.27 25.16 66.7%
Matter of Stats

5 8 5 6 6

30 6.58 26.13 66.7%
Glicko Ratings

5 8 5 5 7

30 5.82 25.71 66.7%
Cheap Stats

6 7 5 5 7

30 5.40 26.09 66.7%
PlusSixOne

5 8 6 4 7

30 3.90 27.58 66.7%
Stattraction

6 7 5 4 8

30 3.65 27.35 66.7%
ZaphBot

6 7 4 5 7

29 5.83 26.78 64.4%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

MAE is the most reliable measure of a model's accuracy. It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) However, it doesn't matter whether you get the winner right, which makes it somewhat divorced from what people really care about.

Bits is a good compromise between reliability and what people care about, which is tipping winners correctly—especially when you're confident.

Tips is the most common measure, which makes it handy for comparing across comps. And it's what people generally want to know: How many tips did you get right? But it's very easy to get lucky or unlucky in 50/50 games, so it's a poor indicator of future performance.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
AFL Lab 60% 0.1 20.3 80% -0.1 24.2 100% 0.7 20.1 80% 0.1 18.4 80% 1.5 28.5 80% 0.3 21.5 60% 0.9 16.5 100% 1.8 18.7 60% -0.4 22.9 100% 1.6 13.7 80% 0.7 23.8 100% 2.5 40.7 80% 1.0 24.8 60% 0.0 32.8 60% 0.5 37.9 40% -2.1 37.1 80% 1.0 15.1 100% 1.7 32.2
AFLalytics 60% 0.1 18.2 60% 0.1 25.2 60% 0.7 19.8 60% -1.5 24.5 80% 1.7 32.3 80% 1.4 14.9 80% 1.1 18.7 80% 2.1 16.1 40% -1.8 28.2 100% 1.5 10.8 100% 1.6 18.6 100% 2.7 46.0 80% 1.4 26.6 80% 0.4 34.0 60% -0.2 42.2 40% -1.8 34.8 100% 1.9 16.1 100% 2.6 30.3
Footy Maths Institute 40% -0.5 22.2 60% 0.4 25.4 100% 1.1 15.0 60% -0.3 20.2 80% 1.3 33.2 80% 0.9 15.6 60% 0.3 30.4 100% 1.8 18.4 40% -0.9 27.4 100% 1.5 14.0 60% 0.3 26.6 80% 1.6 49.2 100% 1.2 22.4 80% 0.4 30.8 40% -0.3 42.8 40% -1.0 33.6 100% 1.5 15.6 100% 1.9 27.2
Squiggle 60% -0.4 20.2 60% 0.7 27.4 60% 0.2 22.5 40% -0.3 20.2 60% 0.9 35.1 80% 0.8 17.0 80% 0.8 33.5 100% 1.7 13.8 60% -0.6 24.0 80% 1.9 11.6 80% 1.4 15.9 100% 3.3 36.0 80% 0.7 24.4 80% 0.5 31.0 40% -0.0 41.3 40% -1.1 36.1 80% 1.1 16.3 100% 2.2 26.4
Punters 60% -0.3 19.5 60% -0.1 21.9 80% 1.2 17.1 40% -0.7 20.2 60% 1.0 35.3 80% 1.2 16.3 80% 0.5 22.7 100% 2.2 15.5 40% -1.7 28.1 80% 2.0 10.4 80% 1.2 20.6 100% 3.4 39.0 100% 1.8 22.2 80% 0.7 31.3 20% -1.3 47.0 40% -1.9 36.6 80% 1.2 16.4 100% 2.6 26.0
Aggregate 60% -0.3 21.3 60% 0.2 23.8 80% 0.8 19.0 60% -0.3 19.6 80% 1.2 32.4 80% 0.8 18.5 80% 0.7 22.7 80% 1.7 18.1 40% -0.8 25.2 100% 1.7 12.4 80% 0.9 23.1 100% 2.7 42.9 80% 1.5 23.8 80% 0.5 31.7 20% -0.5 44.0 40% -1.4 34.0 60% 1.1 15.5 100% 2.0 30.2
s10 60% -0.1 20.2 60% 0.3 24.0 60% 0.6 21.2 60% -0.3 19.5 80% 1.2 32.8 80% 0.7 20.0 80% 0.9 20.3 80% 1.6 19.5 40% -0.8 25.0 100% 1.6 13.0 80% 0.9 23.3 100% 2.6 43.7 80% 1.3 26.0 80% 0.5 32.6 20% -0.2 42.4 40% -1.3 32.8 80% 1.1 16.0 100% 1.9 31.4
The Flag 60% -2.2 26.6 80% -0.5 25.6 100% 1.2 18.4 60% -0.4 20.6 60% 1.2 29.8 100% 1.4 15.8 80% -0.3 29.0 80% 1.7 16.6 40% -1.0 23.8 80% 2.5 12.0 80% 2.2 13.2 100% 3.5 38.0 80% 2.1 18.2 80% 0.6 35.0 20% -1.2 46.0 40% -3.1 38.4 60% 0.6 18.8 80% 2.4 26.6
Graft 60% -1.5 25.4 80% -0.3 23.8 80% 1.0 18.6 60% 0.0 18.2 80% 0.8 32.8 100% 0.9 18.6 60% -0.3 23.0 60% 1.0 23.6 60% -0.2 21.4 100% 2.0 12.4 60% 0.8 23.6 100% 2.8 41.0 80% 1.9 21.6 80% 0.6 33.2 40% -0.8 45.0 40% -1.5 30.8 60% 0.4 19.4 80% 1.4 34.4
Massey Ratings 60% 0.1 20.3 80% 0.9 23.5 60% 0.4 22.5 40% -0.3 21.9 60% 1.3 34.5 80% 0.7 21.9 80% 1.7 14.7 80% 1.4 24.3 40% -1.5 26.7 80% 1.2 18.5 80% 0.7 25.1 100% 2.2 49.5 100% 1.3 28.7 80% 0.2 35.3 20% -0.7 44.3 40% -1.6 32.3 80% 1.1 16.7 80% 1.7 35.9
The Cruncher 60% -1.3 28.9 80% 0.3 24.6 80% 1.0 18.2 60% 0.1 19.9 60% 0.8 31.6 100% 0.8 18.4 60% 0.3 26.2 60% 0.8 25.4 60% -0.2 21.4 80% 1.8 15.7 60% 0.4 26.4 100% 2.4 41.1 80% 1.6 20.6 80% -0.0 34.3 60% -0.2 42.2 40% -1.9 34.8 60% 0.7 16.9 60% 1.0 38.2
Live Ladders 60% 0.4 17.6 60% 0.2 23.4 40% 0.4 23.0 40% 0.1 18.0 60% 1.4 32.6 80% 0.5 21.8 80% 1.5 14.4 80% 1.9 18.0 20% -0.7 24.8 80% 1.5 13.2 60% 0.9 23.8 100% 2.6 45.6 80% 1.0 27.2 80% 0.3 32.0 40% 0.2 39.8 40% -1.7 32.2 100% 1.5 15.6 100% 2.5 29.8
Matter of Stats 60% -0.3 18.2 60% 0.1 25.9 60% 0.4 22.6 60% -1.1 22.4 60% 1.4 34.2 80% 0.9 18.7 80% 0.8 29.9 80% 2.2 14.8 40% -1.9 28.6 80% 2.1 12.2 80% 1.1 21.9 100% 3.7 38.8 60% 1.4 25.9 80% 0.7 33.1 20% -0.8 45.4 40% -1.7 34.9 60% 1.3 18.4 100% 2.9 24.6
Glicko Ratings 60% -0.2 23.5 60% -0.7 26.1 100% 1.8 16.3 40% -0.3 19.1 60% 1.0 34.2 80% 0.6 20.9 60% 0.5 19.4 100% 2.5 18.7 60% -0.7 22.9 80% 2.0 11.8 60% 1.0 21.7 100% 2.7 43.0 60% 1.5 22.2 60% 0.2 33.8 40% -0.4 42.5 40% -2.9 39.8 60% 1.3 17.3 80% 1.9 29.8
Cheap Stats 40% -0.4 20.0 80% 0.1 24.6 60% 0.7 18.2 60% -0.2 21.8 80% 1.4 33.6 80% 0.9 14.8 60% 0.3 22.6 60% 1.4 18.2 40% -1.1 28.6 100% 1.9 11.0 60% 0.4 24.6 100% 3.1 38.4 80% 1.7 21.8 80% 1.0 30.0 20% -1.8 54.0 40% -0.8 35.4 60% 0.0 22.6 100% 2.1 29.4
PlusSixOne 40% -0.4 22.8 60% -0.0 26.9 80% 0.6 20.7 40% -0.4 21.0 80% 0.9 35.1 80% 0.5 21.0 60% 0.6 17.1 80% 1.1 23.7 40% -0.8 26.0 100% 1.0 16.1 60% 0.3 27.2 80% 1.4 49.9 100% 1.2 28.7 80% 0.7 34.8 20% -0.2 42.9 40% -0.6 29.1 80% 0.9 15.4 80% 1.1 37.9
Stattraction 60% 0.0 19.4 80% 0.3 22.1 60% 0.4 22.6 60% 0.4 16.7 80% 0.9 34.5 40% -0.3 25.9 60% -0.0 16.0 60% 0.8 26.1 40% -0.5 24.1 80% 1.1 17.6 60% -0.3 31.0 100% 1.7 47.4 100% 1.6 27.6 80% 0.8 34.7 40% -0.6 44.2 40% -0.7 27.4 80% 0.4 18.6 80% 1.1 36.7
ZaphBot 40% -0.7 21.2 60% 0.7 21.8 60% 0.8 20.2 40% -0.6 21.8 80% 1.5 29.8 80% 1.2 15.0 60% 0.4 31.4 60% 1.5 21.2 40% -0.7 25.2 100% 1.8 17.4 60% 0.0 28.2 100% 2.6 43.8 80% 1.6 22.4 80% 0.4 37.8 20% -1.1 47.8 40% -0.9 30.8 60% 1.1 17.4 100% 2.1 28.8