After Round 18, 2020.
| Tips | Bits | MAE | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Punters
7 5 4 5 8 6 8 7 6 6 7 5 9 7 4 6 5 8 |
113 | 27.22 | 22.79 | 73.9% |
7 5 4 6 7 6 5 8 7 6 7 6 9 6 4 6 5 8 |
112 | 24.60 | 22.36 | 73.2% |
7 5 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 7 8 6 8 7 3 6 5 9 |
112 | 21.43 | 22.97 | 73.2% |
|
s10
8 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 9 7 4 6 5 9 |
111 | 22.88 | 22.57 | 72.5% |
6 4 4 4 7 7 5 7 8 7 5 6 9 5 4 6 6 9 |
109 | 18.26 | 23.38 | 71.2% |
6 5 4 4 5 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 9 6 3 6 5 9 |
108 | 24.91 | 23.09 | 70.6% |
|
Aggregate
7 4 4 4 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 9 5 4 6 5 9 |
108 | 20.75 | 23.11 | 70.6% |
8 5 3 4 6 6 5 7 7 7 6 6 9 6 4 5 6 7 |
107 | 13.19 | 25.38 | 69.9% |
8 6 3 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 9 5 4 6 7 9 |
106 | 21.66 | 22.96 | 69.3% |
8 5 3 6 7 8 3 5 8 5 8 6 9 6 3 5 3 8 |
106 | 13.54 | 23.54 | 69.3% |
8 4 3 5 5 7 5 6 8 6 6 5 8 5 4 5 7 8 |
105 | 20.22 | 24.59 | 68.6% |
7 4 3 4 6 7 5 6 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 5 6 8 |
105 | 16.41 | 23.94 | 68.6% |
8 4 4 4 3 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 8 3 4 6 6 8 |
103 | 15.67 | 24.89 | 67.3% |
5 4 4 6 4 7 6 4 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 6 6 8 |
102 | 14.70 | 24.15 | 66.7% |
7 5 3 4 6 5 6 5 7 6 5 7 8 5 4 5 6 8 |
102 | 13.08 | 24.40 | 66.7% |
7 3 3 4 3 7 4 1 7 7 6 7 8 7 4 6 3 8 |
95 | 15.64 | 24.09 | 66.4% |
8 3 3 4 4 6 5 |
33 | -1.66 | 27.74 | 53.2% |
"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.
"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.
Drawn games are counted as correct tips.
Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?
MAE is the most reliable measure of a model's accuracy. It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) However, it doesn't matter whether you get the winner right, which makes it somewhat divorced from what people really care about.
Bits is a good compromise between reliability and what people care about, which is tipping winners correctly—especially when you're confident.
Tips is the most common measure, which makes it handy for comparing across comps. And it's what people generally want to know: How many tips did you get right? But it's very easy to get lucky or unlucky in 50/50 games, so it's a poor indicator of future performance.
By Round
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| Punters | 76% | 4.2 | 24.2 | 88% | 6.3 | 20.9 | 65% | 1.0 | 16.2 | 71% | 1.6 | 23.8 | 82% | 4.5 | 17.8 | 71% | 2.8 | 18.8 | 76% | 4.3 | 26.0 | 88% | 3.6 | 24.0 | 65% | -0.4 | 21.7 | 59% | 1.8 | 27.2 | 65% | 1.2 | 23.8 | 88% | 4.9 | 28.0 | 88% | 5.4 | 25.3 | 71% | 3.3 | 21.1 | 65% | 1.4 | 24.5 | 59% | 1.1 | 21.0 | 88% | 4.7 | 19.8 | 65% | 2.8 | 26.1 |
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71% | 3.3 | 26.1 | 82% | 6.8 | 19.5 | 65% | 0.6 | 15.2 | 71% | 2.0 | 22.9 | 76% | 2.5 | 17.6 | 65% | 2.3 | 19.6 | 76% | 3.9 | 23.5 | 82% | 2.8 | 23.2 | 59% | 0.3 | 21.0 | 71% | 2.1 | 25.8 | 71% | 1.8 | 22.8 | 88% | 3.6 | 27.8 | 94% | 5.3 | 24.5 | 71% | 3.4 | 19.5 | 59% | 1.0 | 25.0 | 59% | 0.0 | 22.4 | 88% | 4.6 | 19.1 | 71% | 2.7 | 27.1 |
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82% | 4.2 | 25.5 | 88% | 4.6 | 19.9 | 65% | 0.5 | 16.5 | 65% | 0.3 | 26.7 | 82% | 3.1 | 16.0 | 76% | 1.2 | 18.7 | 71% | 4.0 | 26.0 | 82% | 2.6 | 24.4 | 65% | -1.2 | 23.1 | 65% | 1.2 | 27.5 | 59% | 1.0 | 24.4 | 82% | 3.9 | 28.2 | 82% | 4.9 | 23.8 | 76% | 2.9 | 20.5 | 71% | 1.9 | 21.3 | 59% | 2.0 | 22.7 | 76% | 2.8 | 21.3 | 71% | 2.8 | 27.0 |
| s10 | 71% | 3.5 | 26.1 | 82% | 5.8 | 19.2 | 65% | 0.6 | 15.1 | 65% | 1.3 | 23.2 | 76% | 2.6 | 17.7 | 65% | 2.1 | 18.5 | 76% | 3.9 | 25.2 | 76% | 2.8 | 23.9 | 71% | -0.5 | 21.8 | 65% | 1.1 | 27.3 | 71% | 1.7 | 23.8 | 88% | 3.9 | 27.8 | 88% | 5.4 | 24.1 | 71% | 3.2 | 19.7 | 65% | 1.4 | 23.8 | 53% | 0.8 | 21.4 | 82% | 3.4 | 20.6 | 76% | 2.8 | 26.8 |
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71% | 3.0 | 26.4 | 100% | 7.9 | 17.4 | 59% | -1.2 | 18.6 | 59% | 0.5 | 23.9 | 71% | 0.5 | 22.6 | 71% | 2.6 | 18.1 | 82% | 3.1 | 26.8 | 71% | 1.8 | 24.9 | 59% | -1.5 | 22.3 | 65% | -0.9 | 29.2 | 53% | 0.7 | 25.5 | 76% | 3.6 | 28.2 | 88% | 5.4 | 23.9 | 76% | 3.5 | 19.8 | 65% | 0.8 | 25.5 | 59% | -0.7 | 23.4 | 88% | 4.3 | 18.5 | 71% | 3.1 | 25.9 |
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71% | 4.1 | 26.5 | 82% | 6.2 | 21.0 | 59% | 0.9 | 15.4 | 65% | 0.2 | 26.0 | 76% | 3.1 | 17.5 | 65% | 2.3 | 18.3 | 82% | 5.3 | 25.8 | 71% | 2.7 | 25.2 | 53% | -1.6 | 22.5 | 65% | 1.2 | 27.9 | 71% | 2.6 | 22.9 | 82% | 4.9 | 28.2 | 88% | 7.5 | 22.3 | 76% | 2.4 | 20.7 | 65% | 1.5 | 23.6 | 53% | 0.5 | 23.3 | 76% | 2.0 | 22.8 | 71% | 4.0 | 25.7 |
| Aggregate | 71% | 3.0 | 27.1 | 82% | 5.7 | 19.7 | 59% | 0.2 | 15.5 | 71% | 1.3 | 23.1 | 76% | 2.7 | 18.2 | 59% | 1.8 | 19.3 | 82% | 3.8 | 25.6 | 71% | 2.0 | 25.2 | 47% | -0.8 | 22.6 | 53% | 0.6 | 27.8 | 65% | 1.6 | 23.9 | 82% | 3.8 | 28.3 | 88% | 5.2 | 24.7 | 76% | 3.2 | 20.3 | 71% | 1.2 | 24.7 | 53% | 0.5 | 22.2 | 82% | 3.4 | 20.4 | 82% | 2.4 | 27.3 |
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65% | 0.7 | 30.9 | 94% | 5.0 | 18.9 | 59% | -0.0 | 18.9 | 76% | 1.8 | 23.1 | 71% | 1.6 | 21.5 | 65% | 1.6 | 21.2 | 88% | 3.3 | 27.4 | 71% | 0.9 | 32.4 | 59% | -0.4 | 23.1 | 71% | 0.1 | 27.8 | 65% | 1.8 | 26.0 | 59% | 1.3 | 31.6 | 82% | 3.3 | 26.5 | 82% | 3.3 | 22.0 | 53% | -0.7 | 29.9 | 53% | -1.2 | 26.2 | 82% | 2.4 | 20.8 | 65% | 1.6 | 28.7 |
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76% | 3.0 | 27.5 | 82% | 6.6 | 19.6 | 71% | 1.5 | 14.5 | 59% | 1.1 | 24.5 | 71% | 2.0 | 17.7 | 53% | 1.3 | 19.6 | 71% | 2.8 | 25.3 | 76% | 2.8 | 24.4 | 47% | -0.5 | 21.3 | 53% | -0.1 | 28.8 | 71% | 1.9 | 23.5 | 82% | 4.4 | 26.9 | 88% | 5.7 | 24.2 | 76% | 3.7 | 19.7 | 71% | 1.2 | 24.9 | 53% | 0.3 | 20.4 | 65% | 2.0 | 23.6 | 82% | 3.4 | 26.8 |
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59% | 1.2 | 30.6 | 76% | 2.8 | 20.6 | 65% | 0.2 | 15.5 | 59% | 1.5 | 23.0 | 71% | 0.9 | 19.5 | 71% | 1.1 | 20.4 | 82% | 2.8 | 24.8 | 76% | 2.0 | 24.7 | 59% | 0.1 | 20.7 | 71% | 1.1 | 26.3 | 65% | 1.0 | 24.6 | 76% | 1.6 | 29.0 | 82% | 3.6 | 26.3 | 76% | 2.5 | 21.1 | 71% | 0.9 | 24.0 | 59% | 0.7 | 21.4 | 76% | 2.2 | 21.4 | 53% | 0.8 | 29.9 |
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65% | 1.9 | 29.2 | 88% | 6.6 | 21.5 | 65% | -0.1 | 17.0 | 76% | 2.3 | 23.6 | 71% | 3.2 | 18.8 | 59% | 1.7 | 21.3 | 88% | 4.1 | 27.5 | 76% | 2.5 | 26.4 | 41% | -2.2 | 25.8 | 65% | 0.7 | 26.1 | 59% | 0.8 | 26.7 | 76% | 4.0 | 29.4 | 82% | 4.4 | 24.2 | 71% | 4.2 | 23.4 | 71% | 0.8 | 26.5 | 47% | -1.0 | 26.4 | 82% | 4.5 | 21.6 | 53% | 2.0 | 27.5 |
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71% | 2.9 | 28.5 | 82% | 4.2 | 21.0 | 59% | -0.2 | 15.9 | 65% | 1.1 | 23.8 | 76% | 2.4 | 18.4 | 65% | 1.5 | 19.2 | 71% | 3.4 | 27.3 | 71% | 1.3 | 27.3 | 47% | -0.9 | 23.0 | 59% | 1.0 | 26.5 | 59% | 1.5 | 25.2 | 88% | 3.0 | 29.4 | 88% | 4.5 | 25.9 | 76% | 2.0 | 22.2 | 76% | 1.2 | 24.2 | 47% | 0.4 | 21.7 | 71% | 2.4 | 22.4 | 65% | 1.2 | 29.1 |
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71% | 3.3 | 28.1 | 76% | 6.2 | 20.4 | 47% | -3.3 | 21.2 | 71% | 0.8 | 24.9 | 76% | 3.6 | 18.9 | 65% | 1.7 | 18.9 | 82% | 3.0 | 29.1 | 65% | -0.2 | 29.0 | 53% | -2.7 | 25.4 | 59% | 0.8 | 27.6 | 65% | 0.7 | 24.5 | 76% | 4.1 | 29.9 | 88% | 6.7 | 24.8 | 65% | 2.1 | 22.8 | 59% | 0.8 | 26.2 | 53% | -1.8 | 25.5 | 76% | 4.1 | 22.1 | 65% | 1.3 | 28.8 |
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71% | 3.8 | 28.1 | 82% | 4.9 | 21.4 | 47% | -1.3 | 17.1 | 71% | -0.7 | 25.5 | 76% | 3.2 | 18.4 | 65% | 0.4 | 21.4 | 71% | 3.5 | 26.6 | 65% | -1.0 | 29.2 | 41% | -3.0 | 22.8 | 41% | -1.5 | 29.5 | 71% | 1.4 | 23.2 | 82% | 5.6 | 26.7 | 82% | 5.8 | 26.8 | 76% | 2.9 | 22.0 | 59% | 0.2 | 25.3 | 47% | 0.1 | 20.8 | 76% | 2.5 | 22.3 | 76% | 2.6 | 27.5 |
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76% | 1.6 | 29.6 | 76% | 4.0 | 21.4 | 71% | 0.2 | 15.1 | 71% | 0.2 | 24.0 | 71% | 2.1 | 19.6 | 59% | 0.3 | 20.9 | 76% | 3.6 | 27.0 | 65% | -0.0 | 29.8 | 53% | -0.7 | 22.8 | 47% | -1.0 | 29.1 | 65% | 2.0 | 24.0 | 59% | 1.8 | 30.8 | 88% | 4.1 | 26.7 | 65% | 1.6 | 22.2 | 71% | 1.4 | 24.7 | 47% | 0.0 | 21.4 | 76% | 3.0 | 21.5 | 65% | 2.0 | 28.6 |
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62% | 1.3 | 29.7 | 88% | 4.9 | 20.0 | 44% | -0.9 | 19.3 | 75% | 2.3 | 18.4 | 69% | 0.9 | 20.8 | 47% | 0.6 | 21.4 | 76% | 3.2 | 24.9 | 69% | 1.7 | 27.1 | 50% | -0.3 | 22.4 | 50% | -1.4 | 31.6 | 60% | -0.5 | 27.7 | 75% | 3.1 | 30.1 | 88% | 5.0 | 24.5 | 80% | 3.2 | 23.1 | 69% | 3.0 | 22.4 | 53% | 1.4 | 21.9 | 80% | 2.9 | 16.7 | 62% | 0.7 | 31.4 |
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86% | 1.2 | 25.6 | 71% | 1.2 | 21.9 | 43% | -1.0 | 22.6 | 57% | -0.5 | 26.3 | 33% | -0.7 | 19.5 | 71% | 1.0 | 12.6 | 29% | -0.3 | 31.6 | 43% | -2.2 | 39.6 | 29% | -1.7 | 29.0 | 43% | -1.0 | 40.1 | 67% | 1.2 | 18.8 | 57% | 0.6 | 24.3 | 86% | 2.1 | 27.6 | 71% | 0.2 | 26.6 | 57% | -0.6 | 25.4 | 29% | -0.6 | 23.9 | 71% | -0.5 | 32.6 | 14% | -1.7 | 49.1 |