LEADERBOARD

After 1 game of Round 19, 2021.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
FMI

6 8 6 6 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 4 3 4 5 6 3 8 1

109 14.58 26.56 70.8%
Cheap Stats

6 7 5 5 7 6 5 8 7 6 7 4 4 5 5 6 3 8 1

105 15.91 25.83 68.2%
Punters

5 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 3 3 5 5 7 3 6 1

105 15.33 25.67 68.2%
The Cruncher

5 7 5 6 8 7 5 8 7 7 7 4 3 5 5 5 3 7 1

105 13.65 26.01 68.2%
Aggregate

6 8 5 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 3 3 5 5 5 3 7 1

104 15.59 25.75 67.5%
PlusSixOne

5 8 6 4 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 3 5 4 6 3 7 1

104 11.63 26.19 67.5%
Massey Ratings

4 7 7 6 7 7 5 7 7 7 7 4 3 5 5 5 3 7 1

104 10.77 26.56 67.5%
AFL Lab

7 9 7 5 7 5 6 7 7 7 6 3 5 3 4 5 4 6 1

104 10.74 26.10 67.5%
Graft

6 8 5 5 8 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 2 4 5 5 3 7 1

102 16.18 25.51 66.2%
Matter of Stats

5 8 5 6 6 7 5 6 8 8 7 3 3 5 5 5 4 5 1

102 16.17 26.30 66.2%
Squiggle

6 7 6 7 6 7 4 7 7 8 7 3 4 4 5 5 3 5 1

102 16.00 26.38 66.2%
s10

6 8 6 6 6 6 5 7 7 8 7 3 3 5 5 5 3 5 1

102 15.18 25.80 66.2%
AFLalytics

6 9 6 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 7 3 3 5 5 6 3 4 1

102 11.74 26.26 66.2%
Stattraction

6 7 5 4 8 5 3 8 7 6 7 5 3 5 6 5 3 8 1

102 11.68 26.73 66.2%
Live Ladders

5 7 5 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 3 2 4 5 6 1 7 1

100 14.88 26.14 64.9%
ZaphBot

6 7 4 5 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 5 3 3 6 5 3 5 1

100 13.54 26.76 64.9%
Glicko Ratings

5 8 5 5 7 5 4 8 7 6 7 4 2 5 4 6 3 7 1

99 11.81 25.96 64.3%
The Flag

4 8 5 7 8 6 5 7 7 7 7 4 2 4 5 5 3 4 1

99 11.30 26.81 64.3%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

MAE is the most reliable measure of a model's accuracy. It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) However, it doesn't matter whether you get the winner right, which makes it somewhat divorced from what people really care about.

Bits is a good compromise between reliability and what people care about, which is tipping winners correctly—especially when you're confident.

Tips is the most common measure, which makes it handy for comparing across comps. And it's what people generally want to know: How many tips did you get right? But it's very easy to get lucky or unlucky in 50/50 games, so it's a poor indicator of future performance.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
FMI 65% 2.3 22.9 71% 1.8 29.5 100% 4.0 12.6 56% -0.6 21.7 82% 3.7 24.6 88% 3.9 19.2 65% 2.9 28.8 71% 2.0 24.6 59% -0.6 27.6 82% 0.2 28.8 47% -1.4 27.6 76% 3.9 30.6 83% 4.2 22.6 59% -0.6 31.9 65% -0.1 33.8 53% -1.4 30.2 76% 1.3 32.4 76% 3.5 29.1
Cheap Stats 71% 1.7 21.2 76% 2.1 28.5 82% 4.2 12.8 50% -0.5 20.9 82% 4.4 23.6 82% 4.3 18.9 76% 3.6 26.4 65% 2.3 23.9 59% -1.3 26.9 82% 2.0 23.4 53% -2.6 27.9 88% 6.6 24.5 78% 5.6 22.2 47% -1.6 31.5 59% -0.9 36.7 53% -1.5 30.5 53% -0.7 35.7 71% 4.2 29.8
Punters 71% 1.8 22.3 71% 1.9 28.0 82% 4.0 14.9 44% -1.1 19.2 76% 4.2 24.6 88% 4.1 21.8 82% 4.0 26.2 71% 2.3 23.1 59% -1.6 26.2 76% 1.5 24.1 53% -1.4 26.3 88% 6.6 24.6 83% 5.7 22.3 47% -2.0 30.6 47% -1.3 35.7 59% -2.1 29.8 59% -0.4 34.5 71% 4.5 28.4
The Cruncher 71% 1.4 22.4 71% 2.1 29.3 88% 4.2 13.8 44% -0.8 20.8 76% 3.1 24.7 94% 4.6 20.9 71% 2.1 28.6 65% 1.1 24.8 65% -0.5 26.0 76% 1.4 26.3 47% -1.4 25.8 82% 4.5 25.1 72% 4.6 23.3 53% -1.3 30.6 65% 0.7 33.4 59% -2.0 30.3 65% 1.2 31.3 65% 2.5 31.2
Aggregate 71% 2.0 21.7 71% 1.9 29.1 76% 3.5 15.6 44% -0.8 19.6 82% 3.9 23.9 82% 3.9 21.8 76% 3.5 26.5 59% 1.8 23.7 59% -0.6 26.0 82% 1.3 25.0 53% -1.3 25.8 82% 5.5 26.0 78% 4.8 23.7 53% -0.9 30.2 47% -0.4 34.5 59% -1.6 29.6 65% 0.8 32.2 76% 3.7 29.2
PlusSixOne 59% 1.6 22.8 71% 1.1 31.1 76% 2.6 17.0 39% -1.1 19.4 76% 2.5 25.7 88% 2.8 24.5 76% 3.1 24.8 59% 0.9 25.6 53% -1.0 26.3 82% 0.6 26.2 59% -0.3 22.6 76% 3.5 26.4 83% 3.4 26.1 65% 0.4 29.6 47% -0.1 34.9 65% 0.0 26.3 71% 0.9 32.2 71% 2.3 30.5
Massey Ratings 65% 2.3 21.2 82% 2.1 30.3 65% 2.7 17.9 39% -2.7 20.5 71% 3.0 25.9 82% 3.2 25.0 76% 4.3 24.8 59% 1.7 25.6 53% -2.5 27.4 76% -0.5 27.3 65% -2.0 23.8 82% 4.9 27.3 83% 5.6 24.4 65% -1.3 30.3 47% -2.3 35.6 59% -1.9 28.3 71% 1.0 32.3 76% 3.9 30.7
AFL Lab 59% 0.8 24.5 76% 2.1 27.7 76% 1.6 19.4 56% -1.7 19.4 82% 3.2 24.3 82% 2.9 25.0 71% 3.3 25.6 71% 2.0 23.6 59% -0.5 25.5 76% 1.5 24.6 53% -1.6 25.1 82% 5.0 24.7 78% 4.0 24.0 53% -0.0 29.4 59% 0.0 32.8 53% -2.8 30.3 59% -1.1 34.7 71% 2.8 30.1
Graft 76% 1.3 21.8 71% 1.2 29.7 88% 3.7 14.9 50% 0.4 19.2 82% 3.4 23.8 88% 3.9 22.3 65% 2.2 27.6 53% 1.6 24.5 65% 0.4 24.0 82% 2.5 23.1 47% -1.3 25.3 82% 6.5 24.8 72% 5.4 23.3 47% -0.6 29.9 53% -0.5 34.6 47% -2.0 29.2 59% 1.1 32.0 65% 3.2 29.6
Matter of Stats 65% 1.8 21.4 71% 1.4 30.3 71% 3.1 17.7 50% -1.3 20.2 76% 4.7 24.8 76% 4.0 22.4 82% 4.8 27.3 59% 2.2 24.1 65% -1.1 25.1 71% 0.4 26.8 59% -1.8 27.6 82% 7.0 26.1 78% 5.4 23.7 59% -1.4 29.9 41% -1.0 35.9 59% -1.5 29.6 47% 0.7 33.1 82% 5.0 27.9
Squiggle 65% 1.3 23.8 65% 2.2 31.7 59% 2.1 19.6 44% -0.6 18.2 76% 4.1 23.9 76% 3.3 22.0 76% 3.2 29.9 65% 2.0 23.2 71% 0.3 24.5 76% 2.0 24.0 59% -0.5 26.3 82% 6.0 27.6 78% 3.4 23.6 59% -0.2 30.0 47% -0.2 34.6 59% -0.7 29.7 65% 0.5 33.6 71% 3.9 29.3
s10 59% 2.1 21.6 71% 1.9 29.4 71% 2.9 17.3 44% -0.8 19.0 82% 3.9 23.9 82% 3.5 22.7 76% 3.8 25.5 59% 1.7 24.3 59% -0.5 25.5 82% 1.1 25.0 53% -1.2 25.2 82% 5.4 26.3 72% 4.6 24.5 53% -0.6 29.9 41% -0.4 34.4 59% -1.2 28.6 71% 0.8 32.2 76% 3.5 29.6
AFLalytics 59% 2.4 22.1 65% 1.3 30.1 71% 2.9 17.6 44% -3.4 20.7 82% 4.3 24.4 76% 3.8 22.9 76% 4.3 24.3 59% 1.3 24.5 65% -1.2 25.4 82% 0.3 25.6 59% -1.1 24.1 82% 5.0 26.0 72% 3.4 25.8 53% -1.6 30.9 53% -0.9 35.6 65% -0.9 28.4 59% -0.3 34.6 71% 3.9 30.0
Stattraction 76% 2.7 20.3 71% 1.4 29.1 76% 2.8 17.0 67% 2.2 18.3 76% 3.8 24.5 71% 2.9 23.1 71% 3.0 24.5 53% 0.7 27.0 59% -1.1 26.1 71% 0.4 27.2 47% -3.0 28.5 82% 3.3 31.5 78% 5.1 24.5 59% -1.0 31.1 53% -0.1 35.0 47% -1.7 28.8 65% 0.6 31.7 71% 1.4 33.4
Live Ladders 59% 2.2 22.9 71% 2.0 29.0 71% 2.8 18.4 44% -1.0 19.3 76% 4.8 23.1 82% 3.5 24.3 71% 3.3 25.4 53% 1.0 24.2 53% 0.0 25.2 71% 1.1 25.6 47% -1.3 25.3 82% 6.2 26.6 72% 4.2 26.1 53% -2.5 32.1 53% 0.1 33.5 59% -1.7 29.4 71% 1.3 32.0 82% 3.8 28.6
ZaphBot 65% 1.7 22.9 76% 2.5 27.1 71% 3.0 16.3 44% -1.5 21.3 76% 2.6 26.0 71% 3.0 23.4 65% 2.9 31.9 53% 2.1 24.4 59% -0.6 27.9 76% 1.0 27.5 53% -2.4 26.9 88% 4.6 25.6 72% 4.7 22.8 59% 0.7 30.4 47% -0.6 35.4 53% -1.4 30.6 59% 1.0 32.4 82% 3.8 29.4
Glicko Ratings 65% 0.9 23.1 59% 0.7 30.0 94% 5.2 13.3 50% -0.9 20.0 71% 3.6 25.0 82% 4.0 22.3 65% 3.5 26.1 71% 1.6 23.6 65% -0.6 25.8 71% 1.1 24.5 47% -1.8 24.6 82% 5.2 26.1 61% 4.8 24.0 41% -3.0 32.6 59% -0.1 33.9 47% -4.8 32.5 59% 0.8 32.5 71% 3.5 27.8
The Flag 65% 0.8 21.5 71% 0.5 30.9 88% 4.7 14.9 44% -1.5 21.6 76% 4.8 24.2 82% 5.6 20.2 59% 0.7 31.9 59% 0.8 24.4 59% -1.1 25.9 76% 1.4 24.6 59% -2.1 27.7 82% 6.9 28.0 67% 5.6 22.2 53% -3.7 33.9 41% -2.1 36.3 59% -3.7 32.6 53% 1.2 32.5 65% 3.7 29.6