LEADERBOARD

After Round 15, 2022.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
PlusSixOne

5 6 7 6 7 8 5 7 7 6 8 5 5 5 8

95 16.88 26.84 75.4%
s10

5 6 8 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 7 4 5 4 8

92 21.24 25.66 73.0%
Massey Ratings

5 6 6 6 7 8 5 7 7 6 8 3 5 5 8

92 20.22 26.23 73.0%
Live Ladders

5 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 4 5 5 7

91 22.76 25.79 72.2%
AFLalytics

4 6 6 6 6 8 6 7 7 6 7 4 5 5 8

91 22.59 25.11 72.2%
AFL Lab

4 6 7 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 7 3 5 5 8

91 22.54 25.72 72.2%
The Cruncher

6 6 7 7 5 7 6 7 6 6 6 4 5 5 8

91 17.54 27.26 72.2%
Data by Josh

5 6 7 5 7 8 5 8 6 6 7 3 5 5 7

90 24.13 24.87 71.4%
Squiggle

5 4 7 6 7 8 5 6 6 7 7 5 5 4 8

90 21.46 25.43 71.4%
Graft

5 6 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 4 5 5 8

90 19.11 26.20 71.4%
AFL Scorigami

5 7 7 6 6 8 5 7 7 6 7 3 5 4 7

90 18.86 26.47 71.4%
The Flag

6 6 6 4 7 8 6 7 7 7 7 4 4 4 6

89 16.76 26.37 70.6%
Hyperion

5 6 7 5 6 7 5 7 6 6 7 4 5 5 8

89 16.22 26.85 70.6%
Aggregate

5 5 7 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 3 5 4 8

88 20.55 25.70 69.8%
Glicko Ratings

4 5 7 5 6 7 5 7 6 7 7 4 5 5 8

88 17.06 26.94 69.8%
Drop Kick Data

4 6 7 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 3 5 4 8

88 16.88 26.79 69.8%
FMI

5 6 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 5 5 8

88 14.11 26.77 69.8%
Punters

6 5 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 6 7 3 5 4 7

87 22.27 25.16 69.0%
The Footycast

4 6 7 5 6 8 5 7 6 7 7 3 5 4 7

87 20.09 25.59 69.0%
The Wooden Finger

5 6 7 6 5 8 5 7 6 6 6 3 5 5 7

87 15.98 26.99 69.0%
Stattraction

6 5 6 4 6 8 8 6 7 6 6 4 4 4 7

87 13.11 26.79 69.0%
Cheap Stats

6 5 6 4 6 8 5 7 7 6 7 3 5 4 7

86 20.87 26.26 68.3%
Elo Predicts!

6 4 6 4 6 8 5 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 8

86 14.24 26.72 68.3%
Wheelo Ratings

5 4 6 4 6 8 6 6 6 6 8 3 5 4 8

85 23.02 25.14 67.5%
Matter of Stats

4 5 6 5 7 8 5 6 6 6 6 4 5 4 7

84 22.79 25.11 66.7%
ZaphBot

5 5 6 4 7 7 5 7 5 6 8 2 3 3 8

81 14.87 27.33 64.3%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

MAE is the best long-term guide to a model's accuracy. It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) However, it doesn't matter whether you get the winner right, which makes it somewhat divorced from what people really care about.

Bits is a good compromise between reliability and what people usually care about, which is tipping winners correctly—especially when you're confident.

Tips is the most common measure, which makes it handy for comparing across comps. And it's what people generally want to know: How many tips did you get right? But it's easy to get lucky or unlucky in 50/50 games, so it's a poor indicator of future performance.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
PlusSixOne 71% 2.1 22.6 86% 3.0 26.1 79% 1.6 19.4 71% 0.3 20.2 71% 2.2 23.7 43% -0.4 30.9 79% 2.4 20.3 79% 1.4 27.3 93% 3.0 27.8 64% 0.6 27.9 79% 2.1 28.9 100% 5.8 37.3 79% 1.9 23.1 86% 2.1 24.6 57% 0.7 25.4 71% 1.0 26.2 71% 2.4 44.1 79% 1.5 27.2
s10 64% 2.5 21.5 86% 4.4 22.9 64% 1.2 20.3 64% 0.3 21.4 71% 2.1 25.5 50% -1.6 33.2 71% 1.8 21.9 71% 2.6 25.2 86% 3.7 26.6 71% 0.8 29.6 79% 3.4 25.0 100% 8.4 29.9 71% 2.6 21.2 79% 2.0 24.0 64% 1.8 22.3 71% 0.4 27.7 79% 4.0 38.5 71% 1.7 25.4
Massey Ratings 64% 2.7 21.9 71% 3.6 26.0 86% 1.6 19.5 57% -0.2 21.1 79% 2.1 23.9 43% -1.0 31.4 64% 2.4 22.9 79% 2.3 25.9 86% 3.7 27.0 64% 0.9 28.7 79% 3.1 25.6 100% 7.8 32.9 79% 2.1 23.3 93% 2.7 23.1 64% 0.9 24.0 64% 0.3 27.1 71% 3.6 41.8 71% 1.8 26.1
Live Ladders 64% 2.1 24.3 86% 4.2 24.1 71% 2.3 17.4 64% 0.3 23.2 71% 1.5 27.5 57% -0.7 30.6 57% 1.8 23.1 86% 3.1 23.7 86% 4.0 27.6 57% 1.1 29.9 79% 3.7 25.3 100% 8.6 31.3 79% 2.5 20.5 64% 2.7 22.1 64% 1.5 23.3 71% 1.0 26.2 79% 4.3 37.6 64% 1.5 26.5
AFLalytics 71% 2.7 20.4 86% 5.3 22.3 57% 1.1 20.5 64% 0.4 20.1 71% 3.0 23.5 50% -2.6 34.0 71% 1.4 21.2 86% 2.8 23.8 79% 4.1 26.0 57% 1.2 28.3 79% 2.5 25.9 100% 9.2 27.7 86% 4.0 20.2 86% 2.6 22.9 64% 2.5 21.5 57% -0.1 28.7 64% 3.4 39.2 71% 1.7 25.7
AFL Lab 64% 1.4 24.1 79% 4.7 23.3 71% 2.3 18.9 57% 0.5 21.9 79% 2.0 24.2 36% -2.0 33.6 64% 0.9 23.5 71% 3.2 25.9 86% 4.2 26.0 79% 1.3 30.3 79% 3.4 24.1 100% 8.4 30.1 86% 3.6 19.9 86% 2.6 23.3 64% 2.2 22.3 71% -0.1 26.8 64% 3.4 41.1 64% 2.9 23.4
The Cruncher 71% 1.3 26.5 79% 3.7 25.9 57% 0.2 22.1 57% -0.0 22.2 64% 2.4 25.7 57% -1.1 32.1 79% 2.1 21.3 71% 2.4 27.2 86% 4.0 26.3 64% 0.4 29.3 79% 2.6 28.0 93% 7.1 33.8 79% 1.6 24.4 79% 1.7 25.4 79% 2.2 23.3 64% 0.4 27.8 71% 3.3 42.2 71% 1.0 27.3
Data by Josh 71% 2.2 20.9 71% 5.2 21.6 50% 0.5 21.7 64% 0.9 21.0 79% 2.5 23.6 36% -2.6 36.1 64% 0.6 23.8 71% 3.1 23.8 79% 4.1 24.7 79% 2.0 29.9 79% 4.0 27.1 100% 9.6 27.1 79% 2.8 20.4 79% 2.4 22.9 71% 2.8 19.6 71% 0.2 27.5 71% 5.3 34.4 71% 2.6 21.4
Squiggle 64% 2.4 21.4 86% 4.6 21.1 64% 1.4 19.9 64% 0.3 21.9 71% 1.9 26.6 50% -1.2 32.7 57% 1.6 24.7 79% 2.6 24.8 71% 3.5 24.8 71% 1.1 31.2 79% 4.3 24.5 100% 8.6 25.0 71% 2.9 19.7 71% 1.5 26.9 64% 1.0 23.5 64% -0.2 30.7 79% 4.3 35.8 79% 2.4 22.5
Graft 64% 2.1 22.1 79% 4.6 23.4 57% 0.8 20.8 64% 1.1 21.2 71% 2.1 26.1 43% -1.6 32.6 79% 1.8 22.0 79% 2.5 24.6 86% 4.0 26.4 57% -0.3 30.4 79% 2.7 26.9 100% 7.8 32.4 79% 1.6 23.3 71% 1.9 23.2 50% 1.3 23.6 71% 1.2 26.1 79% 3.5 39.6 79% 1.1 26.8
AFL Scorigami 64% 3.1 20.9 64% 2.7 28.1 71% 1.0 22.2 64% -0.2 21.3 71% 1.5 25.9 43% -0.9 32.1 64% 2.2 22.4 79% 2.4 25.1 93% 3.6 27.4 71% 1.4 26.7 71% 2.6 27.1 100% 7.2 33.8 71% 2.5 21.6 79% 2.4 23.4 71% 1.3 23.6 64% 0.5 25.7 71% 3.2 41.7 71% 1.2 27.4
The Flag 71% 1.2 23.4 79% 4.5 24.7 64% 0.7 19.7 64% -0.9 25.6 79% 3.3 23.1 64% -2.1 31.9 57% 1.5 24.2 64% 0.8 25.7 93% 5.5 24.5 57% -0.5 33.2 79% 3.3 29.1 100% 10.2 24.7 64% -0.4 26.6 64% 0.8 25.9 64% 0.9 22.9 64% -0.3 27.8 79% 3.8 38.1 64% 1.0 23.5
Hyperion 71% 2.2 22.6 79% 4.0 23.2 50% 0.1 22.1 57% -0.8 23.5 64% 2.1 24.9 50% -2.5 34.4 79% 2.6 19.5 71% 2.2 26.0 79% 3.3 27.7 57% 0.1 30.7 79% 2.6 27.5 100% 8.4 30.3 79% 1.7 24.0 79% 1.5 27.6 57% 0.6 23.7 64% -0.2 29.4 79% 3.4 39.2 79% 1.2 26.9
Aggregate 64% 2.5 21.1 79% 4.3 23.4 50% 0.7 20.9 64% 0.2 21.5 71% 2.2 25.0 43% -1.6 33.2 71% 1.9 21.9 71% 2.5 25.2 79% 3.8 26.4 64% 0.7 29.7 79% 3.3 25.5 100% 8.3 30.0 71% 2.4 21.8 71% 2.0 23.9 64% 1.8 22.3 64% 0.3 27.5 79% 4.0 38.2 71% 1.7 25.2
Glicko Ratings 71% 2.6 21.3 79% 3.2 26.2 57% 0.4 21.7 57% -0.4 23.3 64% 1.7 26.2 50% -1.6 32.3 71% 2.5 20.3 71% 1.8 27.9 64% 3.0 28.4 64% -0.2 30.4 79% 3.5 25.2 100% 8.1 32.9 71% 0.9 24.5 71% 1.2 26.8 64% 1.7 22.9 71% 0.4 26.9 79% 4.1 39.8 71% 1.0 28.0
Drop Kick Data 64% 2.5 22.0 79% 3.6 25.6 50% -0.2 22.6 64% -0.3 22.5 64% 1.5 25.9 50% -2.0 33.2 64% 2.1 21.9 71% 2.1 26.6 79% 3.4 27.4 64% 0.8 28.6 79% 2.8 26.5 100% 7.1 35.1 71% 1.4 23.1 71% 1.8 24.3 71% 1.4 23.1 64% 0.5 27.1 79% 3.8 40.4 71% 1.3 26.5
FMI 64% 1.7 22.5 86% 4.7 21.5 50% -1.8 24.1 57% -0.5 23.6 64% 2.1 26.8 43% -3.3 36.0 71% 1.0 23.7 71% 3.3 26.4 71% 4.0 25.9 57% -1.2 31.5 79% 2.6 29.7 100% 8.3 30.2 71% 0.1 25.3 79% 1.9 24.4 64% 1.5 22.0 71% -0.3 27.6 79% 2.8 36.5 79% 1.4 24.1
Punters 64% 2.9 18.7 71% 5.3 20.7 50% 0.8 22.1 64% 0.3 21.5 79% 2.5 23.7 36% -2.5 35.7 57% 1.3 23.3 79% 2.8 24.3 71% 3.6 27.2 71% 0.7 31.7 79% 3.3 23.7 100% 9.7 27.8 71% 2.8 22.6 71% 2.0 22.5 64% 1.9 21.4 64% -0.3 28.1 79% 5.4 34.3 71% 2.1 23.7
The Footycast 64% 2.9 19.4 79% 3.4 25.2 57% 1.1 20.5 64% 0.3 22.2 71% 2.7 22.8 50% -0.9 31.6 64% 2.5 20.3 71% 1.7 26.6 71% 3.3 27.9 57% 0.4 29.5 79% 3.4 25.1 100% 7.6 30.3 71% 2.0 22.9 64% 2.3 22.9 64% 1.0 23.1 64% 0.7 26.8 79% 4.1 38.3 71% 1.7 25.1
The Wooden Finger 64% 1.9 23.0 71% 4.8 22.9 50% -1.2 23.8 64% -0.1 23.0 71% 0.8 29.7 50% -3.5 34.9 57% 1.9 22.9 71% 2.5 27.6 79% 4.2 24.6 57% -1.2 32.9 79% 2.6 30.0 100% 9.0 29.3 71% 1.8 23.4 64% 1.7 25.8 71% 1.9 22.0 71% -0.8 28.6 79% 4.8 34.4 71% 0.7 27.2
Stattraction 71% 2.1 21.2 79% 2.6 25.6 36% -1.4 25.3 64% -0.0 20.5 79% 0.3 26.4 50% -1.7 33.7 71% 2.2 21.9 64% 1.4 27.5 86% 3.3 25.4 57% 0.2 30.2 79% 2.7 27.7 93% 6.7 30.3 64% 1.0 23.5 57% 0.8 27.3 71% 2.3 20.6 71% 0.2 26.3 71% 1.9 43.4 79% 1.7 25.3
Cheap Stats 71% 3.6 19.6 79% 4.7 22.9 57% 0.4 23.9 64% -0.1 23.2 71% 2.9 24.2 36% -1.3 35.6 71% 2.6 20.9 71% 1.3 26.8 79% 3.0 27.2 64% 1.1 31.6 79% 3.5 24.0 100% 9.0 27.4 71% 2.6 23.9 64% 0.9 26.4 50% 0.9 23.1 57% 0.1 28.9 79% 4.5 39.6 64% 2.0 23.6
Elo Predicts! 71% 1.6 23.3 79% 1.3 26.4 50% 0.1 24.0 64% -0.4 22.4 71% 2.4 24.8 57% -2.3 29.4 64% 2.2 23.2 64% 2.6 27.4 71% 3.8 27.2 57% -2.7 31.1 79% 2.1 25.4 93% 7.1 30.8 71% 2.5 23.4 71% 2.1 25.2 71% 1.7 25.0 50% -1.2 26.6 71% 4.5 40.2 71% 1.0 25.3
Wheelo Ratings 71% 2.4 21.2 71% 5.6 21.6 57% 0.6 20.8 71% 0.3 21.2 71% 3.3 22.6 36% -2.4 34.2 50% 0.8 23.3 71% 2.8 24.6 79% 4.0 26.5 57% 1.3 28.9 79% 4.0 24.4 100% 9.6 28.1 71% 3.9 19.8 71% 2.2 23.3 57% 2.8 20.8 57% -0.2 28.7 71% 3.7 37.7 71% 1.3 24.9
Matter of Stats 71% 3.6 18.5 86% 4.8 21.6 43% 1.1 20.5 57% -0.5 21.7 71% 2.2 25.5 36% -2.5 34.2 71% 1.4 23.6 64% 2.5 24.9 71% 3.7 26.6 50% 1.3 28.6 79% 4.0 24.8 100% 9.9 26.9 71% 3.8 19.8 71% 1.9 25.0 57% 2.6 20.4 57% -0.3 28.8 71% 4.4 35.8 71% 1.9 24.8
ZaphBot 71% 2.1 22.4 71% 3.6 23.2 57% 0.6 21.9 57% 0.2 20.5 64% 1.0 28.4 36% -2.7 35.2 50% 0.9 24.9 71% 2.3 27.6 64% 3.0 27.6 50% 0.2 29.4 79% 2.9 25.8 100% 6.8 33.6 64% 1.4 24.9 79% 2.1 25.3 57% 1.6 23.4 50% -0.2 29.5 71% 3.2 39.3 64% 0.6 29.1