LEADERBOARD

After Round 24, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 5

157 51.0999 51.10 25.3047 25.30 75.8454 75.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 6

157 35.3355 35.34 25.4415 25.44 75.8454 75.8%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 6

155 53.8211 53.82 25.0943 25.09 74.8792 74.9%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6

154 52.6227 52.62 25.2676 25.27 74.3961 74.4%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 6

154 51.5881 51.59 26.0338 26.03 74.3961 74.4%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 6

154 51.1347 51.13 24.8153 24.82 74.3961 74.4%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 5

154 48.8002 48.80 25.5124 25.51 74.3961 74.4%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6

153 51.1613 51.16 25.1447 25.14 73.9130 73.9%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6

153 48.8410 48.84 25.6301 25.63 73.9130 73.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 5

152 52.6544 52.65 24.9592 24.96 73.4300 73.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 6

152 49.9180 49.92 25.9034 25.90 73.4300 73.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6

151 54.6971 54.70 25.6405 25.64 72.9469 72.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6

151 52.4350 52.44 26.2850 26.29 72.9469 72.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6

149 52.6546 52.65 25.7444 25.74 71.9807 72.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 7

149 48.7298 48.73 25.4198 25.42 71.9807 72.0%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 6

149 39.9592 39.96 26.4272 26.43 †1 72.3301 72.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6

148 50.4655 50.47 25.4208 25.42 71.4976 71.5%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 6

148 50.2176 50.22 25.3536 25.35 71.4976 71.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 5

148 50.0638 50.06 25.5686 25.57 71.4976 71.5%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 5

148 47.1286 47.13 25.0585 25.06 71.4976 71.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 6

148 46.7708 46.77 26.2128 26.21 71.4976 71.5%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 6

148 41.5921 41.59 25.7787 25.78 71.4976 71.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 6

147 50.0471 50.05 26.1881 26.19 †4 72.4138 72.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 6

144 48.8023 48.80 26.5691 26.57 69.5652 69.6%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 5

144 46.4377 46.44 26.6618 26.66 69.5652 69.6%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 5

144 46.4313 46.43 26.5072 26.51 69.5652 69.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 5

144 46.2642 46.26 26.0097 26.01 69.5652 69.6%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 6

144 43.7169 43.72 26.0758 26.08 †9 72.7273 72.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 6

143 41.0417 41.04 27.0007 27.00 69.0821 69.1%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 6

141 43.0787 43.08 26.2556 26.26 68.1159 68.1%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 6

132 46.4467 46.45 26.4451 26.45 †25 72.5275 72.5%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 74% 4.1 25.3 70% 4.4 34.6 70% 2.7 29.4 78% 5.0 22.2 83% 10.5 27.0 78% 7.3 21.1 65% 3.6 24.0 74% 5.4 22.1 65% -0.8 27.8 78% 6.9 27.3 57% -0.4 25.3 83% 7.6 22.6 78% 5.0 23.1 87% 13.2 21.9 83% 6.0 21.3 96% 10.7 32.8 78% 8.6 22.4 70% 2.5 25.4
Holy Grail Ratings 70% 3.2 24.8 65% 3.3 35.1 70% 2.3 27.3 87% 3.8 20.3 91% 7.4 28.2 70% 4.4 23.7 70% 3.2 21.8 78% 3.8 21.5 61% 0.6 29.4 78% 3.8 27.3 65% 1.1 25.1 83% 4.3 21.4 70% 2.4 26.0 91% 8.5 23.9 87% 4.0 22.6 91% 6.8 32.9 83% 6.3 22.5 57% 1.3 24.1
s10 70% 6.0 23.2 65% 4.1 35.8 61% 2.5 29.1 83% 6.0 20.7 87% 10.3 26.6 78% 7.7 20.2 70% 4.0 23.1 65% 4.5 22.9 57% 0.0 28.3 83% 5.9 27.8 57% 0.7 24.8 83% 8.6 22.3 83% 4.7 23.3 91% 14.0 21.9 83% 6.8 21.3 91% 10.3 32.4 83% 9.8 22.7 61% 1.7 25.3
Punters 70% 5.5 23.5 65% 3.8 35.5 70% 2.6 30.1 78% 5.1 22.2 87% 10.3 27.9 83% 9.7 20.2 74% 4.3 22.6 70% 4.2 22.9 61% -0.4 28.9 83% 6.0 27.0 57% 0.8 24.8 78% 7.2 23.5 74% 3.7 23.5 87% 14.1 21.0 78% 5.9 21.0 96% 10.8 31.0 78% 9.0 23.3 52% 2.4 25.9
ZaphBot 74% 6.9 22.2 65% 4.9 35.2 65% 2.3 31.3 83% 6.9 23.3 83% 10.2 28.2 78% 7.6 20.1 61% 3.1 25.3 74% 4.7 21.7 52% -2.7 31.3 78% 5.0 28.5 61% -0.5 27.1 78% 8.2 24.3 74% 2.3 26.6 87% 15.2 21.7 87% 8.0 20.3 100% 12.0 29.5 74% 8.9 25.1 65% 0.2 26.8
Wheelo Ratings 74% 5.1 22.1 57% 3.3 35.4 65% 2.1 29.6 78% 4.9 21.7 87% 10.5 25.8 83% 8.6 19.7 70% 3.1 23.9 65% 4.5 23.1 61% 0.4 27.3 78% 5.5 26.8 57% 0.3 24.7 83% 8.5 21.7 78% 4.1 22.4 91% 13.2 22.0 78% 6.1 21.0 91% 10.2 31.9 83% 9.8 22.3 61% 1.8 25.2
Glicko Ratings 74% 4.8 24.6 65% 3.5 36.0 65% 3.3 28.8 74% 5.7 21.1 83% 8.6 28.0 83% 7.9 19.7 70% 3.6 23.8 70% 3.4 24.1 57% 0.7 27.3 78% 5.1 28.8 61% 0.3 24.3 83% 7.7 23.9 78% 4.7 22.7 91% 13.0 23.0 78% 6.4 21.1 91% 9.7 32.6 83% 9.2 22.8 57% 0.2 26.8
Aggregate 70% 5.6 23.3 61% 4.0 36.2 65% 2.9 28.8 83% 5.5 20.5 87% 9.8 26.8 74% 7.3 20.3 70% 4.0 22.4 65% 4.4 22.9 57% -0.3 29.3 83% 5.6 27.3 61% 1.2 24.5 83% 7.9 22.1 83% 4.1 24.4 87% 13.4 21.6 83% 6.5 21.5 87% 9.6 32.7 78% 9.1 22.8 57% 1.5 25.0
What Snoo Thinks 74% 4.1 25.0 65% 2.1 38.7 78% 5.2 24.6 74% 5.2 20.6 87% 9.7 28.4 70% 6.1 24.2 65% 3.5 22.7 61% 3.3 25.5 61% 1.7 27.4 70% 3.7 29.5 57% -0.5 25.4 83% 8.1 21.7 78% 3.8 26.2 83% 12.9 22.5 91% 7.6 19.9 87% 9.3 32.8 78% 9.8 22.5 70% 2.0 23.8
AFLalytics 70% 4.7 24.3 61% 3.7 35.2 61% 2.7 28.2 74% 4.8 22.0 87% 9.9 27.1 74% 7.3 21.8 74% 4.7 22.9 65% 3.9 23.4 70% 1.6 26.2 87% 6.4 27.8 52% 2.2 24.1 83% 8.6 20.6 74% 4.0 23.5 91% 13.3 22.0 74% 6.2 21.9 91% 9.5 31.9 83% 10.0 21.3 52% 1.9 25.0
Informed Stats 74% 6.5 24.0 61% 3.9 38.0 65% 3.7 30.7 78% 5.3 21.7 87% 9.9 24.9 78% 6.3 17.8 70% 2.4 24.1 70% 5.0 22.1 52% -3.3 33.2 74% 6.6 27.3 57% -0.8 26.2 83% 8.5 23.9 74% 3.1 24.8 91% 15.7 20.7 83% 6.1 24.0 87% 9.5 33.8 83% 9.7 23.4 57% 1.7 25.7
Don't Blame the Data 70% 6.5 23.9 61% 4.5 36.2 65% 2.8 28.5 83% 6.2 21.1 87% 11.3 26.2 70% 7.2 22.1 70% 4.2 22.0 61% 4.7 23.4 57% -0.3 28.8 78% 5.1 28.6 57% -0.7 25.6 83% 9.2 23.7 83% 4.7 25.3 87% 15.3 21.7 83% 8.1 21.1 87% 9.6 32.9 78% 10.0 24.1 57% 0.9 26.2
The Wooden Finger 74% 5.8 25.1 61% 3.4 38.0 65% 3.5 30.1 87% 6.7 21.0 87% 10.6 27.1 74% 7.1 20.5 65% 3.3 23.6 65% 5.1 22.2 52% -1.5 31.0 78% 4.9 29.0 61% 1.1 25.1 83% 9.4 22.8 78% 4.0 29.2 91% 14.3 20.9 83% 7.4 20.3 78% 9.3 35.3 83% 9.5 24.3 48% 1.0 27.7
Matter of Stats 70% 6.5 24.2 65% 4.4 35.4 65% 2.8 28.0 83% 6.6 20.4 83% 10.1 28.5 74% 7.0 20.1 70% 4.0 23.0 70% 4.1 23.2 52% -1.2 30.4 78% 6.1 29.2 57% -0.4 25.4 78% 8.3 24.8 65% 4.7 25.2 87% 14.0 20.1 78% 7.2 21.5 96% 10.2 33.8 74% 9.5 23.7 52% 1.5 26.4
HBin 74% 5.4 24.3 65% 4.9 34.9 70% 2.3 30.1 78% 6.4 19.4 87% 8.6 28.8 78% 7.4 21.0 61% 3.0 23.1 70% 5.4 22.5 57% -2.9 30.3 78% 5.4 28.1 52% -0.2 24.9 74% 8.1 22.6 74% 3.5 24.2 87% 15.0 22.6 83% 7.5 21.4 83% 9.1 31.4 74% 7.8 24.0 52% 1.1 23.7
Cheap Stats 65% 4.3 25.0 61% 3.2 36.5 70% 2.7 27.4 83% 3.7 22.0 83% 7.5 30.6 77% 6.7 22.7 68% 3.6 25.7 61% 3.2 24.7 48% -1.4 31.0 78% 3.8 29.8 52% 1.3 24.2 83% 4.8 24.8 74% 4.4 24.8 83% 10.7 22.4 83% 5.0 21.7 87% 7.5 33.1 83% 7.6 24.3 65% 1.2 24.8
Stattraction 70% 5.3 23.9 61% 3.7 37.3 65% 2.1 30.4 87% 6.5 19.5 87% 9.9 26.7 74% 6.5 20.4 65% 3.6 22.2 65% 3.8 24.5 52% -0.5 29.5 74% 5.1 27.7 65% 1.8 23.9 74% 8.1 22.5 70% 4.7 25.3 87% 13.6 21.5 83% 8.0 20.1 78% 8.9 33.1 74% 8.7 23.5 57% 1.1 25.6
Winnable 65% 5.8 23.2 61% 3.0 35.4 52% 1.2 29.5 83% 5.5 20.9 87% 10.1 26.9 78% 7.4 21.1 70% 4.8 21.6 65% 4.2 23.6 52% 0.7 27.9 78% 5.6 28.3 52% 0.4 25.5 83% 9.4 20.0 70% 4.6 23.4 91% 12.6 25.4 65% 5.4 23.0 96% 9.5 33.5 83% 9.3 22.3 57% 0.9 24.7
footycharts 70% 5.1 25.1 57% 3.3 36.7 65% 4.1 28.2 74% 4.9 21.4 87% 9.8 27.1 74% 8.3 20.6 78% 4.9 21.9 70% 4.5 22.9 52% -0.3 28.9 78% 5.5 29.0 57% 1.1 25.2 83% 9.4 19.4 70% 2.2 26.3 91% 12.9 23.8 78% 6.0 21.8 87% 9.8 32.3 83% 8.7 22.6 35% -0.1 27.0
PlusSixOne 70% 4.4 23.8 70% 4.1 34.9 65% 2.8 28.0 70% 4.6 21.6 87% 10.5 24.3 83% 7.9 18.6 61% 2.8 23.4 70% 5.8 20.6 48% -1.4 30.4 78% 6.0 25.2 52% 1.2 25.6 70% 5.3 21.4 65% 3.0 24.9 91% 12.4 22.4 83% 6.8 22.0 87% 9.7 31.7 78% 8.6 24.9 61% -0.2 27.2
AFL Lab 65% 5.8 26.1 61% 4.1 35.8 61% 2.5 30.6 78% 5.0 20.9 87% 9.5 26.1 74% 5.1 23.8 70% 5.2 22.0 65% 4.4 22.6 52% -0.8 29.4 83% 6.3 26.8 61% 1.5 25.8 83% 7.5 22.8 74% 3.3 26.0 87% 12.7 23.6 74% 6.0 22.5 83% 8.1 34.1 78% 8.0 24.5 52% -0.7 28.5
The Footycast 65% 4.6 24.0 65% 3.4 36.3 70% 2.7 29.2 78% 4.8 20.7 87% 8.3 26.7 78% 6.1 21.6 65% 3.3 23.6 70% 4.0 23.1 43% -1.1 30.5 78% 4.5 28.0 61% 1.7 24.2 83% 5.9 20.9 70% 2.3 25.5 87% 11.5 23.0 83% 5.4 23.0 78% 7.4 34.0 78% 7.5 23.3 48% 0.8 26.2
The Cruncher 73% 6.0 27.0 57% 2.6 37.5 57% -0.0 30.8 77% 5.3 21.9 87% 9.8 27.7 78% 7.4 21.2 65% 2.6 26.9 59% 3.7 24.4 57% -0.5 27.1 74% 5.5 27.2 57% 0.2 24.6 83% 8.5 23.2 83% 5.1 23.5 91% 14.2 22.4 81% 6.8 22.2 83% 10.5 32.9 83% 10.1 24.3 61% 2.4 26.1
In The Game 70% 6.3 26.1 61% 3.2 37.1 52% -1.0 30.9 83% 5.2 22.6 87% 10.1 27.9 65% 6.5 22.3 61% 2.9 24.6 61% 3.8 23.6 61% -3.6 31.2 70% 5.6 26.1 52% 0.5 26.1 78% 9.9 24.1 70% 3.0 25.0 87% 15.0 20.4 70% 7.1 24.0 91% 13.6 30.8 78% 6.9 29.4 57% 2.5 26.0
Elo Predicts! 65% 5.5 25.2 61% 3.5 38.3 65% 1.6 28.7 70% 5.7 22.9 78% 9.1 26.8 70% 6.4 22.3 61% 3.6 23.1 61% 3.9 26.1 61% -0.9 31.3 78% 5.0 25.0 57% 1.3 24.5 74% 6.5 28.5 74% 2.8 26.9 91% 13.5 22.5 83% 6.9 20.0 83% 8.4 33.5 78% 9.7 27.1 43% 0.4 27.2
Graft 65% 4.8 28.4 52% 3.4 37.6 70% 3.4 31.7 74% 5.0 23.0 87% 8.6 28.2 74% 6.9 18.1 61% 3.6 23.0 57% 3.2 24.7 57% 0.7 29.3 74% 4.7 28.3 61% 2.4 25.8 78% 7.3 21.8 74% 2.6 27.7 87% 12.4 20.8 87% 5.7 23.7 78% 8.2 32.8 74% 8.7 24.7 43% 1.1 27.5
Live Ladders 65% 4.7 25.6 48% 3.7 36.4 61% 3.8 25.6 70% 4.5 20.1 87% 9.4 28.8 70% 6.1 24.0 70% 4.8 22.2 57% 2.6 26.4 65% 1.1 28.8 70% 5.1 28.0 61% 1.4 24.9 87% 7.3 20.9 74% 3.4 25.7 87% 11.7 25.5 74% 5.5 23.3 83% 8.2 33.2 83% 8.5 23.7 43% 0.8 25.0
Hyperion 71% 4.9 26.3 55% 3.3 36.1 67% 1.0 32.6 68% 4.3 21.0 86% 9.8 26.6 77% 8.3 19.6 73% 3.5 25.0 64% 4.5 22.9 61% -2.2 31.3 82% 6.0 26.8 55% 0.7 25.4 82% 6.1 25.5 73% 3.0 26.4 91% 13.5 20.2 78% 5.7 22.7 82% 8.0 30.0 82% 8.1 21.3 64% -1.2 30.1
AFL Scorigami 70% 5.4 25.2 57% 0.9 38.2 70% 2.5 27.7 78% 3.8 22.2 78% 8.5 29.3 70% 6.8 23.3 61% 1.7 26.4 57% 4.7 23.7 52% -3.9 30.8 74% 4.7 29.3 61% 0.7 25.8 83% 7.5 23.2 78% 4.1 25.7 87% 12.7 24.7 70% 4.6 24.8 74% 7.4 35.2 74% 8.3 25.3 52% 1.8 25.1
Squiggle 70% 4.3 24.3 57% 3.2 37.0 48% 2.0 29.5 74% 4.4 21.8 87% 7.8 29.0 74% 6.8 21.5 61% 3.6 23.3 65% 2.9 24.6 52% 0.4 27.9 74% 4.9 28.6 48% 0.8 25.9 83% 7.6 22.1 65% 2.5 25.7 87% 12.5 23.7 70% 5.0 22.6 87% 8.4 35.0 78% 8.2 24.7 48% 0.8 25.5
Massey Ratings 68% 5.5 27.4 57% 3.3 37.8 65% 1.2 32.1 81% 5.7 20.6 85% 8.9 26.1 75% 5.9 21.5 67% 3.6 24.6 70% 3.5 22.8 52% -1.8 30.9 76% 5.1 29.6 58% 1.0 24.8 85% 8.1 25.8 70% 5.0 24.9 85% 13.3 21.1 80% 6.3 24.1 90% 8.7 31.5 84% 10.2 22.0 57% -0.7 27.2