LEADERBOARD

After Round 27, 2021.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
FMI

6 8 6 6 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 4 3 4 5 6 3 8 6 5 4 6 7 2 1 1 1

141 18.03 27.82 68.1%
ZaphBot

6 7 4 5 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 5 3 3 6 5 3 5 7 7 5 8 7 3 1 1 1

139 19.10 27.43 67.1%
Squiggle

6 7 6 7 6 7 4 7 7 8 7 3 4 4 5 5 3 5 6 6 4 7 8 3 1 1 1

138 19.92 27.44 66.7%
Aggregate

6 8 5 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 3 3 5 5 5 3 7 6 6 4 6 7 3 1 1 1

138 19.70 26.90 66.7%
Punters

5 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 3 3 5 5 7 3 6 5 5 4 6 8 3 1 1 1

138 18.61 27.06 66.7%
AFL Lab

7 9 7 5 7 5 6 7 7 7 6 3 5 3 4 5 4 6 5 5 5 7 7 3 1 1 1

138 13.57 27.26 66.7%
Cheap Stats

6 7 5 5 7 6 5 8 7 6 7 4 4 5 5 6 3 8 5 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 1

137 20.10 27.21 66.2%
The Cruncher

5 7 5 6 8 7 5 8 7 7 7 4 3 5 5 5 3 7 6 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 0

137 16.19 27.44 66.2%
Massey Ratings

4 7 7 6 7 7 5 7 7 7 7 4 3 5 5 5 3 7 6 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 1

137 15.78 27.60 66.2%
AFLalytics

6 9 6 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 7 3 3 5 5 6 3 4 6 6 4 6 7 3 1 1 1

136 14.15 27.22 65.7%
Graft

6 8 5 5 8 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 2 4 5 5 3 7 5 6 4 6 8 2 1 1 1

135 20.75 26.83 65.2%
s10

6 8 6 6 6 6 5 7 7 8 7 3 3 5 5 5 3 5 5 6 4 6 7 3 1 1 1

135 19.43 26.94 65.2%
Matter of Stats

5 8 5 6 6 7 5 6 8 8 7 3 3 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 4 6 7 3 1 1 1

135 19.18 27.26 65.2%
PlusSixOne

5 8 6 4 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 3 5 4 6 3 7 5 5 4 6 6 3 1 1 1

135 15.60 27.44 65.2%
Live Ladders

5 7 5 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 3 2 4 5 6 1 7 4 6 4 7 8 3 1 1 1

134 19.36 27.27 64.7%
Stattraction

6 7 5 4 8 5 3 8 7 6 7 5 3 5 6 5 3 8 6 5 4 7 6 2 1 1 1

134 13.98 28.07 64.7%
Glicko Ratings

5 8 5 5 7 5 4 8 7 6 7 4 2 5 4 6 3 7 6 6 3 6 8 3 1 1 1

133 14.30 27.40 64.3%
The Flag

4 8 5 7 8 6 5 7 7 7 7 4 2 4 5 5 3 4 5 7 4 7 6 1 1 1 1

131 12.17 28.04 63.3%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

MAE is the most reliable measure of a model's accuracy. It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) However, it doesn't matter whether you get the winner right, which makes it somewhat divorced from what people really care about.

Bits is a good compromise between reliability and what people care about, which is tipping winners correctly—especially when you're confident.

Tips is the most common measure, which makes it handy for comparing across comps. And it's what people generally want to know: How many tips did you get right? But it's very easy to get lucky or unlucky in 50/50 games, so it's a poor indicator of future performance.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
FMI 68% 4.5 22.4 67% 2.6 29.8 86% 3.3 19.5 55% -0.1 25.0 78% 3.5 26.0 82% 4.5 21.8 68% 3.6 30.1 73% 3.2 29.5 54% -1.7 27.3 68% -1.8 30.0 56% -0.1 30.2 77% 5.2 29.8 79% 5.2 26.9 59% -0.2 29.8 64% 0.6 32.3 57% -0.5 28.6 73% 2.2 28.4 65% 2.1 31.9
ZaphBot 73% 3.9 21.4 75% 3.7 28.0 59% 1.3 23.3 55% -0.2 23.2 74% 2.1 27.4 77% 4.4 24.2 68% 3.3 31.4 59% 3.0 30.6 54% -2.4 27.2 73% -0.3 26.7 64% -0.4 30.2 86% 5.6 25.6 75% 5.9 26.1 68% 2.2 26.4 50% -0.0 33.6 57% -0.1 28.1 68% 2.9 28.0 73% 3.2 30.8
Squiggle 68% 3.7 23.4 67% 3.2 31.5 55% 1.2 24.5 50% 0.6 20.6 74% 3.6 25.9 73% 3.8 24.2 80% 3.9 29.7 68% 3.4 29.4 67% -1.2 24.6 64% -1.6 26.3 72% 2.4 29.0 82% 7.2 26.9 75% 4.6 27.5 64% 0.6 26.9 50% -0.0 33.0 61% 0.5 27.8 68% 2.2 29.3 62% 1.8 32.0
Aggregate 73% 4.1 21.3 71% 2.8 29.6 68% 2.8 21.4 50% 0.1 22.7 78% 4.0 25.2 77% 4.6 23.8 76% 4.4 27.5 64% 3.3 29.7 54% -1.7 25.4 68% -1.5 26.1 64% 0.6 29.0 82% 6.7 25.7 75% 6.0 27.5 55% -0.2 27.4 50% 0.1 32.8 61% -0.6 27.9 68% 2.0 28.1 65% 1.8 31.8
Punters 73% 4.1 22.5 71% 3.0 28.4 73% 3.6 20.8 45% -0.3 22.2 74% 4.5 25.4 82% 4.2 24.5 84% 4.9 27.0 73% 4.0 28.5 54% -2.7 25.3 64% -2.2 26.5 64% 1.1 28.6 86% 7.9 24.8 79% 6.9 26.9 50% -1.8 28.9 50% -1.2 34.8 61% -0.9 28.0 59% 0.4 31.3 58% 1.6 31.8
AFL Lab 64% 3.3 23.2 75% 2.6 28.7 64% 0.0 25.0 59% -0.7 22.4 74% 2.6 26.3 77% 3.3 27.0 76% 4.7 26.1 73% 2.9 30.6 54% -1.9 25.1 64% -2.1 25.9 64% 0.9 27.7 82% 6.1 24.5 75% 5.1 27.6 59% 0.6 27.0 64% 1.2 31.0 57% -1.9 28.9 64% 0.8 29.4 58% -0.4 33.2
Cheap Stats 73% 3.6 21.5 75% 3.4 28.2 73% 3.9 19.3 50% -0.1 24.0 78% 5.1 24.8 77% 4.3 22.2 76% 5.1 27.0 68% 3.8 29.2 54% -2.1 26.2 68% -1.0 25.5 60% -0.1 30.0 86% 8.0 25.0 75% 7.0 26.2 50% -1.8 29.3 59% -0.7 35.9 57% -0.5 29.2 55% -0.3 33.2 58% 2.5 32.2
The Cruncher 73% 3.2 22.0 71% 2.7 30.5 77% 3.9 19.6 45% -0.5 24.4 74% 3.4 26.4 86% 5.2 23.4 72% 2.7 29.1 68% 2.3 31.0 58% -1.4 25.3 64% -1.2 27.2 56% -0.4 30.1 82% 5.7 24.5 71% 5.5 27.0 55% -1.0 28.5 64% 1.1 32.0 61% -1.2 29.4 64% 1.7 28.4 54% 0.6 33.4
Massey Ratings 73% 4.7 20.9 79% 3.3 30.6 59% 1.8 23.2 41% -1.9 23.9 70% 2.8 26.8 77% 4.2 26.1 76% 5.5 26.1 64% 3.4 31.5 50% -3.8 26.2 68% -3.1 27.8 68% -0.1 28.1 82% 6.2 26.9 79% 6.7 28.2 64% -0.4 27.8 50% -1.7 33.6 61% -0.9 27.5 68% 2.3 28.6 62% 2.5 32.1
AFLalytics 64% 4.6 21.6 67% 2.3 29.8 64% 2.0 22.8 50% -1.9 22.6 74% 4.1 25.6 77% 4.4 24.9 76% 4.4 26.4 64% 3.1 28.8 58% -3.5 25.9 68% -3.0 26.6 68% 0.6 27.7 82% 6.5 24.8 71% 4.2 29.5 59% -1.0 27.7 55% -0.0 33.8 61% -0.0 26.8 64% 1.0 30.0 62% 0.6 33.4
Graft 77% 3.4 21.8 67% 1.8 30.9 77% 3.3 20.7 55% 1.1 22.7 78% 3.8 24.8 82% 4.8 24.0 68% 2.9 28.3 59% 3.0 30.7 58% -0.3 23.5 68% 0.1 24.4 56% 0.5 29.4 82% 7.4 25.1 75% 6.8 27.2 50% -0.1 27.7 50% -0.4 32.8 52% -1.0 27.5 59% 2.2 28.5 62% 2.2 31.3
s10 64% 4.3 21.2 71% 2.8 29.9 64% 2.1 22.7 50% 0.2 22.2 78% 3.9 25.4 77% 4.2 24.6 76% 4.7 26.6 64% 3.1 30.3 54% -1.7 25.0 68% -1.7 26.2 60% 0.9 28.6 82% 6.6 25.8 71% 5.7 28.2 55% 0.1 27.2 45% 0.2 32.4 61% -0.3 27.4 73% 2.2 28.0 62% 1.6 32.1
Matter of Stats 68% 4.1 22.0 71% 2.1 30.1 64% 2.7 22.1 55% -0.0 22.4 74% 4.8 25.4 73% 4.8 24.0 80% 5.2 27.8 64% 4.4 28.1 58% -2.9 24.8 59% -3.5 28.2 64% 0.7 30.4 82% 8.4 25.9 75% 6.5 27.6 59% -0.4 26.5 45% -1.1 34.4 61% -0.5 27.7 55% 2.0 29.6 65% 1.1 32.2
PlusSixOne 64% 3.5 22.1 71% 1.9 32.0 64% 2.0 22.7 45% -0.5 23.2 70% 2.6 26.8 82% 3.3 26.2 76% 4.0 26.2 64% 2.0 32.1 46% -1.9 25.7 68% -1.0 26.4 64% 0.8 27.9 77% 4.7 25.3 79% 4.2 29.3 64% 1.0 27.3 50% 0.7 33.0 61% 0.8 25.8 73% 1.8 29.0 58% 1.4 32.2
Live Ladders 64% 4.5 21.7 71% 3.2 29.7 68% 1.5 24.3 50% 0.0 22.4 70% 4.6 25.3 82% 4.9 24.8 76% 4.3 26.1 59% 1.8 31.6 50% -1.2 25.0 59% -1.7 26.9 60% 1.3 28.9 82% 7.2 25.6 71% 5.1 29.4 55% -2.3 29.9 55% 1.0 30.9 57% -0.7 28.4 73% 3.3 27.9 65% 2.1 31.2
Stattraction 73% 4.1 21.6 67% 1.9 30.4 68% 2.0 22.6 64% 2.3 22.6 74% 4.4 25.3 64% 2.8 25.8 72% 4.3 25.7 59% 2.1 32.8 58% -1.8 24.8 59% -2.3 28.0 56% -1.8 32.4 77% 3.6 31.0 79% 6.4 27.9 64% -0.0 27.6 50% -0.0 33.8 52% -1.2 28.5 64% 1.0 29.0 65% 0.3 34.4
Glicko Ratings 68% 2.8 23.4 58% 1.1 31.5 82% 4.7 19.1 50% -0.2 23.6 70% 3.2 26.7 77% 4.4 24.9 68% 3.6 27.9 73% 2.8 30.4 58% -1.9 25.3 59% -1.6 25.3 60% -0.1 28.3 82% 6.3 25.9 67% 6.4 27.3 50% -2.4 29.5 59% -0.1 32.8 52% -3.7 30.0 59% 1.4 29.4 65% 1.8 30.9
The Flag 64% 2.8 21.6 67% 0.2 32.1 77% 4.4 20.1 50% -0.5 23.0 70% 5.0 25.7 86% 7.1 21.7 64% 1.2 31.4 64% 2.7 29.3 54% -3.4 26.4 64% -3.2 27.0 64% -0.6 31.3 77% 7.8 27.4 67% 7.1 26.4 59% -3.0 30.5 41% -2.8 35.7 61% -3.3 30.7 59% 2.5 29.8 54% 0.4 32.8