LEADERBOARD

After Round 18, 2025.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6

116 30.24 25.67 76.3%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6

114 25.94 26.20 75.0%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5

113 29.40 25.63 74.3%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5

113 29.02 25.56 74.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5

113 28.83 26.36 74.3%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6

113 28.75 25.48 74.3%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5

112 29.88 25.54 73.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5

112 29.81 25.41 73.7%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5

112 28.88 25.47 73.7%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5

110 30.16 26.35 72.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3

110 28.84 26.99 72.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6

110 27.02 26.10 72.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4

109 30.99 25.13 71.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6

109 26.90 26.24 71.7%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5

108 29.89 25.26 71.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6

108 29.67 25.16 71.1%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5

108 28.57 25.88 71.1%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4

107 27.01 26.18 70.4%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4

107 26.27 25.71 70.4%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4

106 20.13 27.75 69.7%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3

105 27.22 26.23 69.1%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6

105 25.72 26.93 69.1%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5

104 24.37 27.27 68.4%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4

103 28.26 26.11 67.8%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5

102 25.82 26.23 67.1%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6

101 23.20 27.55 66.4%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4

101 14.42 28.43 66.4%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3

98 23.31 27.21 64.5%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Matter of Stats 88% 4.3 26.0 71% -0.1 28.0 76% 2.2 25.6 82% 5.0 25.7 88% 6.2 24.2 71% 2.7 23.2 65% 1.9 24.4 81% 1.6 20.3 59% 0.1 26.3 82% 3.2 19.2 65% 1.6 25.6 88% 6.3 27.5 65% 3.2 35.0 82% 5.1 25.5 71% 2.4 29.5 71% 1.5 24.1 94% 9.8 24.1 76% 3.6 27.5
AFL Lab 94% 4.4 24.5 71% -0.9 27.3 71% 1.4 26.1 82% 4.7 24.8 75% 4.8 27.1 82% 2.1 23.4 65% 2.3 26.6 69% 1.7 22.9 53% -1.7 28.2 82% 4.1 17.5 71% 1.8 24.1 82% 4.3 29.7 71% 3.1 32.4 76% 5.5 26.7 59% 1.1 31.8 76% 2.1 21.9 94% 7.7 26.9 76% 3.3 29.8
Punters 88% 5.7 22.7 71% 0.4 26.1 76% 1.2 25.2 76% 5.2 25.9 75% 6.4 24.4 71% 2.3 24.1 53% 0.9 27.0 81% 1.3 21.0 47% -1.5 27.7 76% 3.8 18.8 71% 1.5 27.2 88% 5.9 28.2 65% 2.8 33.9 82% 4.4 26.5 71% 2.5 29.5 71% 1.7 23.0 94% 10.0 23.7 82% 4.2 25.9
Aggregate 88% 4.6 24.4 71% 0.5 25.5 76% 1.8 26.4 82% 4.7 25.2 81% 5.7 24.2 71% 2.6 24.0 59% 1.7 26.2 69% 1.3 21.2 47% -0.6 27.1 82% 3.4 19.0 71% 1.7 25.6 88% 5.9 27.1 65% 2.7 33.5 82% 5.6 25.6 71% 2.3 30.1 65% 1.3 23.3 94% 9.1 24.0 76% 3.6 27.4
Live Ladders 88% 5.0 26.3 71% 0.2 24.5 76% 1.5 27.7 82% 5.7 24.0 88% 5.0 26.0 71% 2.8 23.8 65% 2.0 26.8 81% 1.8 21.2 47% -0.9 28.8 76% 4.4 19.6 65% 1.7 26.2 82% 5.6 28.1 71% 2.5 33.1 82% 5.4 27.2 65% 1.8 31.1 65% 1.2 23.3 88% 8.1 26.8 76% 3.8 29.6
Glicko Ratings 76% 4.4 25.5 71% 0.5 26.7 65% 0.5 28.4 88% 5.4 24.2 94% 6.8 22.6 71% 1.8 25.0 59% 1.4 26.0 81% 1.4 21.2 47% -1.3 27.8 76% 2.4 21.0 65% 1.6 24.6 88% 6.0 27.3 65% 3.2 32.7 82% 5.4 26.3 71% 3.0 28.3 71% 2.4 21.6 94% 9.5 22.9 76% 3.1 26.1
Winnable 82% 5.6 23.5 71% 0.0 26.2 76% 0.7 27.0 76% 4.5 27.6 81% 7.4 24.0 71% 2.2 23.6 59% 1.3 27.4 62% 1.2 22.3 53% -1.7 28.8 76% 4.1 19.9 71% 1.4 25.2 94% 6.2 27.5 59% 3.0 31.6 82% 5.9 23.7 71% 3.1 29.0 65% 1.0 23.4 94% 9.9 23.9 82% 4.0 24.7
Don't Blame the Data 82% 3.5 25.7 71% 1.0 26.1 76% 1.6 27.2 82% 4.0 25.4 75% 5.6 24.6 65% 2.2 24.0 65% 2.4 25.5 75% 1.9 19.9 53% -0.2 27.6 76% 4.3 18.1 71% 1.8 24.0 88% 6.2 27.0 65% 2.6 33.0 82% 6.0 24.8 71% 2.3 29.6 65% 1.6 22.4 94% 9.0 24.6 71% 3.7 27.7
s10 82% 4.7 24.3 71% 0.6 24.8 76% 1.9 26.3 82% 4.9 24.3 75% 5.6 24.8 71% 2.4 24.1 59% 1.9 25.4 69% 1.5 21.0 59% -0.9 27.4 71% 3.5 19.0 65% 1.5 25.7 88% 5.5 27.2 65% 2.7 33.4 82% 5.8 25.4 71% 2.1 30.5 71% 1.5 22.8 94% 9.0 24.0 76% 3.5 27.7
Informed Stats 88% 6.2 25.1 71% 0.4 31.6 71% 1.6 22.6 71% 3.9 27.1 81% 6.7 24.9 65% 3.5 22.3 65% 1.7 27.1 69% 1.2 20.6 47% -0.9 27.2 82% 3.3 20.9 65% 1.0 27.9 88% 6.5 29.3 59% 3.3 33.5 82% 3.8 26.9 65% 1.3 32.0 71% 1.8 24.0 94% 10.6 23.4 71% 4.3 27.6
The Wooden Finger 88% 5.2 24.5 71% 0.2 30.2 76% 1.4 27.5 76% 4.9 26.1 81% 6.1 24.1 65% 2.9 23.8 65% 1.3 25.2 62% -0.3 23.1 53% -0.4 28.6 65% 3.2 23.6 76% 2.2 28.6 88% 6.5 29.3 65% 2.0 35.2 82% 5.5 24.3 76% 2.5 29.5 53% 0.9 25.8 94% 9.8 26.5 65% 3.7 29.6
Squiggle 76% 5.3 24.4 71% 1.0 26.7 71% 0.2 29.1 82% 5.8 24.3 88% 6.0 23.9 65% 2.2 24.6 59% 1.2 26.2 75% 0.6 22.5 35% -2.3 30.8 76% 2.9 20.1 59% 1.8 25.9 88% 5.8 26.8 71% 3.9 30.9 82% 4.5 27.7 59% 2.0 30.0 71% 1.3 23.8 94% 8.2 25.9 82% 3.6 25.9
Drop Kick Data 88% 5.2 24.3 71% 0.9 25.8 65% 2.3 24.9 82% 4.8 25.0 81% 6.5 24.6 65% 1.3 23.6 59% 1.7 24.9 62% 1.1 20.8 47% -1.0 28.3 71% 3.2 19.4 65% 2.0 25.4 88% 6.4 26.2 59% 2.8 33.8 82% 5.9 25.5 71% 2.5 29.3 71% 2.6 22.0 94% 10.1 22.5 71% 3.6 26.0
ZaphBot 71% 3.6 24.3 65% 0.3 27.6 76% 2.6 28.6 76% 2.8 26.4 81% 5.4 25.9 71% 2.6 23.3 59% 2.6 24.6 81% 2.4 19.7 59% -0.6 28.6 53% 3.6 20.7 65% 0.9 27.1 88% 4.5 28.8 65% 1.5 34.4 88% 6.9 22.9 65% 1.1 32.6 59% 1.2 25.6 94% 9.0 22.4 76% 3.4 28.4
Wheelo Ratings 76% 5.8 22.6 71% 0.4 27.8 65% 1.7 26.2 76% 5.0 25.3 75% 6.8 23.3 65% 2.1 24.5 53% 1.4 25.0 75% 1.0 20.6 47% -2.1 28.5 71% 2.5 20.5 59% 2.0 25.6 88% 6.5 26.5 59% 2.8 34.2 82% 5.6 24.9 71% 2.4 29.3 76% 2.7 21.3 94% 9.5 22.2 76% 3.7 26.2
The Cruncher 76% 5.7 23.7 71% 0.1 26.7 71% 1.7 26.0 82% 4.3 27.3 75% 6.7 21.9 65% 1.1 24.7 59% 1.7 24.8 81% 1.2 20.2 47% -1.0 26.0 65% 1.5 22.8 53% 2.3 25.6 88% 6.2 26.1 59% 2.8 33.7 82% 5.0 25.7 71% 2.8 27.8 71% 2.8 22.1 94% 10.6 21.6 71% 3.9 25.7
AFLalytics 76% 4.7 25.8 71% -0.8 27.4 71% 1.5 27.7 88% 5.0 25.5 81% 6.0 23.2 71% 3.0 23.5 59% 1.5 26.2 75% 1.2 21.8 47% -1.1 27.4 71% 2.4 21.3 53% 2.1 25.1 88% 5.9 26.8 59% 3.3 32.9 82% 6.0 26.2 65% 2.7 30.0 59% 1.1 23.6 94% 9.2 24.9 71% 3.4 26.2
Stattraction 76% 3.9 25.5 71% 0.7 23.5 71% 1.8 26.8 65% 3.6 27.2 81% 5.5 26.0 65% 2.7 25.2 47% 0.6 29.0 62% -0.0 23.3 59% -0.0 27.3 65% 3.6 19.8 71% 2.0 25.5 88% 6.2 27.5 65% 2.3 34.0 82% 5.6 23.8 71% 2.1 31.1 71% 1.3 23.5 94% 8.6 24.1 65% 3.6 28.2
Cheap Stats 76% 4.4 22.6 71% 1.7 24.5 76% 1.9 24.4 76% 4.5 24.2 81% 4.6 26.4 59% 1.5 25.6 53% 1.0 27.9 69% 0.2 21.2 41% -0.5 28.7 71% 3.3 18.1 65% 1.6 26.5 88% 5.5 27.4 59% 1.8 35.2 82% 4.1 27.4 71% 2.6 29.1 65% 0.7 25.1 94% 9.4 22.6 71% 4.1 25.6
The Footycast 71% 3.5 28.2 65% 0.1 27.4 71% 1.3 26.4 76% 4.4 25.7 81% 4.6 24.7 71% 0.9 27.7 59% 0.6 28.1 62% 0.3 23.9 53% -0.8 29.6 65% 1.9 23.4 59% -0.4 30.3 88% 5.1 28.8 71% 1.5 34.9 82% 4.2 27.3 71% 2.6 28.9 59% 0.1 25.9 94% 9.0 26.5 59% 1.2 31.5
What Snoo Thinks 82% 3.5 25.4 65% -0.8 26.1 65% 0.9 28.4 76% 4.5 26.8 75% 5.8 25.8 71% 3.5 23.9 53% 1.7 26.1 75% 1.1 21.2 53% -0.6 27.6 71% 3.3 20.0 65% 1.7 25.5 82% 6.0 27.4 53% 2.3 33.0 76% 5.0 27.3 71% 2.9 29.6 53% 0.6 24.7 94% 9.5 24.4 65% 3.6 28.6
footycharts 76% 4.4 27.0 71% -1.2 29.3 71% 1.1 28.0 82% 4.9 25.3 81% 5.8 23.3 71% 3.6 23.8 53% 1.1 27.0 69% 0.3 23.6 35% -2.8 31.4 76% 4.0 18.8 59% 1.1 25.9 82% 5.8 28.6 53% 3.5 34.1 82% 5.8 26.3 65% 2.4 30.6 59% 0.9 24.7 82% 7.3 29.7 76% 3.2 27.0
Graft 82% 4.6 26.6 65% -0.0 31.6 76% 1.7 25.5 71% 4.5 25.1 81% 4.6 24.4 76% 3.1 23.0 53% 0.9 28.1 69% 0.8 22.3 47% -0.3 27.7 65% 2.5 21.0 59% 0.9 29.5 82% 5.6 30.8 59% 2.1 36.2 82% 5.3 25.1 65% 1.7 31.1 47% -0.6 27.0 88% 8.9 24.6 65% 2.4 30.7
Massey Ratings 71% 4.4 24.3 71% 0.6 24.4 71% 2.1 27.0 76% 5.3 24.0 75% 5.9 25.1 53% 2.2 24.7 59% 2.0 25.9 69% 1.5 20.8 47% -0.8 26.9 65% 3.7 19.9 59% 1.1 27.2 82% 5.2 28.3 65% 2.2 34.5 76% 6.2 26.9 65% 1.4 32.3 59% 0.5 24.8 94% 9.9 23.4 65% 3.4 29.1
Elo Predicts! 65% 3.5 25.3 65% 0.8 20.5 76% 1.7 27.8 71% 4.3 26.1 69% 4.0 28.2 76% 3.4 23.7 59% 2.1 27.8 62% 0.7 23.6 47% 0.3 23.9 65% 3.3 21.0 53% 0.6 27.5 76% 4.8 26.9 65% 2.6 33.8 76% 5.3 27.4 76% 2.1 31.4 47% 0.0 24.2 88% 8.7 24.5 71% 3.5 28.4
Hyperion 71% 2.8 27.7 59% 0.4 26.3 71% 1.4 26.3 71% 4.1 26.2 81% 4.4 27.9 71% 2.2 24.6 59% 2.2 28.8 56% 1.4 23.4 59% 0.2 26.6 65% 3.5 19.2 65% 1.0 27.6 82% 5.2 30.0 53% 0.5 36.8 76% 5.6 28.1 71% 1.1 32.5 35% -0.7 25.6 94% 9.1 25.7 59% 2.2 32.5
PlusSixOne 76% 2.2 27.6 59% 0.0 22.6 59% 0.5 30.3 71% 1.9 27.7 81% 2.5 27.2 76% 2.3 23.9 53% 1.2 30.6 56% 0.6 24.0 47% -0.2 26.5 71% 1.8 24.8 65% 0.7 27.3 82% 3.3 30.1 71% 1.9 33.0 76% 3.1 33.4 47% 0.9 33.8 53% -0.5 26.6 94% 4.9 29.2 59% 1.7 32.9
AFL Scorigami 71% 4.1 27.4 59% -0.4 24.2 71% 2.5 26.5 65% 4.0 25.7 81% 5.2 23.0 53% 1.5 25.8 47% 0.6 29.2 50% 0.2 23.6 47% -1.2 26.8 59% 1.4 24.4 65% 2.4 24.7 88% 5.1 29.3 53% 2.8 33.7 82% 5.3 29.1 65% 2.0 32.0 53% 0.4 25.4 94% 8.4 26.9 59% 2.2 31.4