LEADERBOARD

After 2 games of Round 16, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 2

100 30.7519 30.75 25.4260 25.43 76.9231 76.9%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 1

98 30.3764 30.38 24.9583 24.96 75.3846 75.4%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 1

98 20.8101 20.81 25.6928 25.69 75.3846 75.4%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 2

96 31.0317 31.03 26.1615 26.16 73.8462 73.8%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 2

96 30.9447 30.94 25.6652 25.67 73.8462 73.8%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 2

95 32.0062 32.01 25.4342 25.43 73.0769 73.1%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 2

95 29.8052 29.81 25.8782 25.88 73.0769 73.1%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 2

95 29.5660 29.57 25.5675 25.57 73.0769 73.1%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 2

95 26.6008 26.60 26.3084 26.31 73.0769 73.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 2

94 31.8102 31.81 25.9762 25.98 72.3077 72.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 1

94 28.1565 28.16 25.7822 25.78 72.3077 72.3%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 1

93 29.3729 29.37 27.4077 27.41 71.5385 71.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 2

93 29.3631 29.36 26.2673 26.27 71.5385 71.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 2

92 29.8687 29.87 26.6558 26.66 70.7692 70.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 2

92 26.9856 26.99 25.8223 25.82 70.7692 70.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 1

92 25.0934 25.09 27.5295 27.53 †1 71.3178 71.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 2

91 29.7813 29.78 25.7548 25.75 70.0000 70.0%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 2

91 29.6959 29.70 25.4557 25.46 70.0000 70.0%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 2

91 28.9940 28.99 26.6385 26.64 70.0000 70.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 1

91 28.3844 28.38 25.9175 25.92 70.0000 70.0%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 2

89 28.0579 28.06 27.3602 27.36 68.4615 68.5%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 2

89 23.1775 23.18 26.2877 26.29 68.4615 68.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 1

88 27.6941 27.69 26.0077 26.01 67.6923 67.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 1

88 24.9157 24.92 25.9885 25.99 67.6923 67.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 1

88 23.8541 23.85 26.9472 26.95 67.6923 67.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 1

87 26.5058 26.51 27.5154 27.52 66.9231 66.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 1

87 25.6904 25.69 26.1992 26.20 66.9231 66.9%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5

87 22.0907 22.09 26.9587 26.96 †9 71.9008 71.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 2

86 22.5639 22.56 26.7923 26.79 66.1538 66.2%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 1

84 23.4346 23.43 26.6446 26.64 †9 69.4215 69.4%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 2

74 23.9598 23.96 27.2048 27.20 †25 70.4762 70.5%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 79% 2.3 20.0 67% 1.4 32.5 64% 1.7 24.4 86% 4.2 22.0 86% 6.8 27.4 86% 5.2 21.8 73% 2.4 26.9 79% 3.6 25.3 73% 1.0 28.0 73% 3.6 22.1 60% 0.1 25.3 79% 4.1 27.5 79% 1.7 23.6 86% 7.0 23.9 80% 4.3 18.5 100% 7.8 33.8 71% 3.0 26.0 67% 1.4 27.7
Wheelo Ratings 79% 2.9 15.5 53% 1.4 32.5 64% 1.5 25.1 86% 4.0 20.9 86% 6.5 27.8 93% 6.0 20.2 73% 1.5 27.7 79% 3.6 25.1 67% 2.3 27.0 80% 2.5 21.7 60% -0.0 25.6 79% 4.8 26.5 71% 0.8 23.5 86% 6.9 24.3 80% 4.3 18.5 93% 7.2 33.0 71% 3.7 27.3 60% 0.9 26.2
Holy Grail Ratings 71% 1.8 17.8 60% 1.4 32.6 64% 1.5 22.2 93% 3.0 22.0 93% 4.1 29.6 71% 2.7 24.6 67% 1.7 24.5 93% 3.2 22.2 67% 1.4 29.6 73% 1.9 22.0 73% 1.2 24.0 79% 2.4 27.8 64% 0.7 25.3 86% 4.0 27.4 87% 2.9 21.3 93% 5.1 34.3 71% 2.6 27.1 53% 0.1 27.4
ZaphBot 71% 4.7 15.9 67% 2.8 31.3 64% 1.6 27.6 86% 4.9 23.6 79% 5.7 28.2 86% 7.0 18.1 60% 0.7 28.7 71% 3.0 25.4 60% 0.2 32.0 80% 2.1 22.1 60% 0.7 26.1 71% 4.3 28.6 71% 0.1 26.1 86% 8.3 23.3 93% 5.8 20.5 100% 8.1 32.5 64% 2.6 29.9 60% -0.7 30.0
s10 71% 3.9 16.8 60% 1.8 33.1 57% 1.3 25.2 86% 4.2 20.4 86% 6.1 28.6 86% 5.4 20.8 67% 1.7 27.5 71% 3.4 25.2 60% 1.4 29.2 80% 2.8 22.7 53% 0.5 25.3 79% 4.8 27.0 79% 1.5 24.1 86% 7.3 24.3 87% 4.6 20.1 93% 7.1 34.9 71% 3.5 28.0 60% 0.5 27.9
Punters 71% 3.6 16.8 60% 1.3 34.0 64% 1.9 25.1 79% 4.1 22.8 86% 6.5 30.9 93% 6.8 19.2 73% 2.1 26.1 79% 3.8 24.5 67% 1.5 29.3 80% 2.8 22.8 53% 0.2 26.3 71% 4.3 27.3 64% 0.6 24.0 86% 7.7 21.7 73% 4.1 19.3 100% 8.2 30.9 71% 3.3 28.1 47% 1.2 27.6
AFLalytics 71% 3.3 17.9 60% 1.6 32.9 57% 1.0 24.8 86% 3.6 21.3 86% 5.7 29.5 79% 4.5 23.6 73% 2.7 27.1 79% 3.3 25.3 73% 2.0 28.0 87% 3.0 24.0 53% 1.5 24.5 79% 5.1 24.6 64% 1.3 23.6 86% 6.5 25.7 73% 3.9 21.1 93% 6.5 36.0 71% 3.7 27.1 47% 0.1 27.6
Aggregate 71% 3.6 16.5 53% 1.9 33.1 64% 1.6 24.7 86% 4.0 20.5 86% 5.7 28.7 79% 5.1 20.5 67% 1.7 26.4 71% 3.5 24.8 60% 1.3 30.1 80% 2.7 22.0 60% 0.9 24.9 79% 4.4 26.9 79% 1.3 24.6 86% 7.0 23.8 87% 4.4 20.4 87% 6.5 35.3 71% 3.4 28.0 53% 0.2 27.9
Glicko Ratings 79% 3.2 18.2 60% 1.3 33.8 57% 1.6 25.4 79% 3.9 20.5 86% 4.9 29.4 86% 4.8 21.3 73% 1.2 28.8 79% 2.8 26.1 60% 1.3 28.6 73% 2.1 24.8 53% 0.1 25.3 79% 4.4 28.4 79% 1.6 24.5 86% 6.6 25.2 73% 4.1 19.8 93% 6.6 35.2 71% 3.0 28.4 53% -0.3 28.7
Don't Blame the Data 71% 4.3 17.4 53% 2.3 32.9 64% 1.5 25.0 86% 4.0 20.6 86% 6.7 28.1 71% 5.0 22.2 67% 1.5 26.3 71% 4.1 24.1 60% 1.6 29.4 73% 2.5 23.5 60% 0.0 25.6 79% 5.1 28.6 79% 1.3 25.0 86% 8.2 24.3 87% 5.6 19.9 87% 6.4 34.9 71% 3.6 29.4 53% -0.2 29.5
What Snoo Thinks 79% 2.7 17.5 60% 1.1 33.9 71% 3.1 19.8 71% 3.4 22.0 86% 5.3 29.8 71% 4.0 24.1 60% 1.1 27.1 64% 3.3 25.4 60% 2.0 29.2 67% 1.4 24.5 60% 0.2 24.9 79% 4.8 25.2 71% 1.6 24.6 79% 6.1 26.7 93% 4.8 19.7 87% 6.4 35.4 71% 4.4 26.8 73% 0.8 26.5
The Wooden Finger 79% 3.9 18.4 53% 1.6 35.2 64% 2.2 27.3 93% 5.1 21.2 86% 6.0 29.1 79% 4.5 21.4 60% 0.3 28.7 71% 4.4 23.6 60% 0.2 32.7 73% 2.4 24.4 60% 0.7 25.5 79% 5.0 28.6 79% 1.3 30.1 86% 7.7 21.6 87% 5.1 20.1 73% 5.7 40.7 71% 3.6 31.1 40% -0.9 32.2
AFL Lab 64% 3.7 19.9 53% 2.1 33.8 57% 1.3 26.8 79% 3.5 20.0 86% 5.8 27.4 71% 2.9 25.3 67% 3.1 24.9 79% 4.5 21.9 60% 1.5 28.5 80% 3.5 21.9 67% 2.4 24.4 79% 4.1 27.6 79% 1.3 25.0 86% 6.5 26.2 80% 4.6 20.3 87% 5.5 37.1 71% 3.4 28.6 47% -1.2 32.2
Matter of Stats 71% 4.1 18.4 60% 1.9 33.5 64% 1.4 23.7 86% 4.3 20.9 79% 5.2 32.9 79% 4.6 20.8 67% 1.4 28.1 79% 3.8 23.9 60% 0.3 32.3 73% 3.5 23.9 53% -0.1 26.1 71% 4.3 30.9 57% 1.2 25.5 86% 7.6 20.2 80% 4.8 21.4 100% 7.1 36.2 64% 3.7 30.2 47% 0.7 29.8
PlusSixOne 71% 3.1 16.7 73% 1.7 33.0 57% 1.5 24.5 79% 4.0 21.9 86% 5.8 24.5 93% 6.3 17.7 67% 1.6 26.8 64% 3.3 24.8 53% 0.6 31.3 73% 2.7 21.4 60% 1.6 24.1 71% 3.6 24.8 57% 1.0 25.2 86% 6.0 25.6 80% 4.4 22.1 87% 6.2 36.7 64% 2.1 31.0 53% -1.6 31.3
The Cruncher 77% 4.7 20.0 53% 0.6 35.7 57% -0.4 27.5 79% 3.5 22.5 86% 5.7 29.9 86% 5.0 22.0 64% 0.5 31.7 64% 2.0 28.6 60% -0.7 30.3 73% 1.6 24.4 53% -1.1 26.7 79% 4.7 26.8 79% 2.2 26.2 86% 7.1 25.4 80% 4.4 21.6 80% 6.6 37.1 71% 3.0 29.5 60% 1.1 28.4
footycharts 71% 3.5 16.8 53% 1.9 33.1 64% 2.4 23.8 79% 4.0 21.6 86% 5.5 29.7 79% 5.7 20.4 80% 2.9 25.4 79% 4.1 24.4 60% 2.5 28.2 73% 2.8 24.1 53% 1.3 25.0 79% 5.1 22.6 64% 0.1 24.9 86% 6.1 26.1 80% 4.1 21.4 87% 6.3 35.6 71% 2.8 29.0 20% -1.6 30.2
Winnable 64% 3.8 16.8 60% 0.6 32.7 43% 0.2 24.9 79% 4.0 20.7 86% 6.1 28.9 86% 5.1 21.6 67% 2.5 25.5 71% 3.3 26.5 60% 2.9 27.1 80% 3.1 21.6 53% 0.3 26.0 79% 5.4 23.2 64% 1.8 21.8 86% 6.1 28.9 60% 3.5 21.9 100% 6.8 35.6 71% 3.8 26.4 53% 0.1 27.2
Informed Stats 71% 4.0 18.0 60% 1.9 35.8 57% 2.6 26.1 71% 3.1 22.3 86% 6.0 27.3 86% 6.2 16.1 67% 0.0 28.5 64% 2.9 26.9 60% 0.8 33.0 73% 3.3 23.4 53% -1.2 27.3 79% 4.3 27.7 71% 0.8 25.5 86% 8.7 22.7 80% 4.6 23.5 80% 5.8 37.9 71% 3.6 27.9 47% 0.4 27.9
Stattraction 71% 3.6 16.8 53% 1.9 34.1 64% 1.4 26.2 93% 4.9 18.9 86% 5.3 29.3 79% 4.7 19.6 60% 0.6 26.2 71% 3.5 25.7 60% 1.0 30.5 67% 2.0 23.2 67% 1.0 24.3 64% 3.8 27.1 64% 1.9 25.2 86% 7.3 22.9 87% 5.4 19.9 73% 5.2 38.0 64% 3.3 27.9 53% -0.1 29.3
In The Game 71% 4.1 20.4 60% 1.4 34.3 50% -0.4 25.8 86% 4.5 22.4 86% 6.5 29.7 71% 4.9 21.1 53% 0.5 29.7 71% 3.7 24.6 67% -1.1 32.6 67% 2.6 20.9 47% -0.6 28.1 71% 5.3 31.5 57% -0.5 27.4 86% 8.5 22.1 67% 4.6 24.1 100% 10.1 32.6 71% 1.1 35.3 53% 0.8 29.0
The Footycast 64% 2.9 17.3 60% 1.8 32.4 64% 1.7 25.2 71% 3.5 22.6 86% 4.6 27.7 86% 4.4 21.2 60% 1.2 28.3 64% 2.5 26.0 53% 0.2 31.2 73% 1.9 23.3 60% 1.5 23.7 79% 3.1 26.3 64% 0.4 24.2 86% 6.1 25.3 80% 3.6 22.2 80% 5.0 37.0 71% 2.7 28.1 33% -0.5 29.8
Live Ladders 64% 3.0 18.6 40% 1.8 32.3 57% 2.1 20.7 79% 3.5 20.2 86% 5.4 29.8 71% 3.9 24.4 67% 2.9 24.4 64% 3.0 27.1 67% 2.5 29.2 67% 2.7 23.1 67% 1.7 23.7 86% 4.3 26.2 64% 0.9 24.6 86% 5.7 28.8 67% 3.5 22.5 80% 5.5 35.6 79% 3.7 27.9 33% -0.6 28.3
HBin 79% 3.9 18.2 60% 2.6 32.0 57% 0.7 26.5 79% 4.0 19.1 86% 4.8 31.6 79% 4.3 22.1 60% 0.6 26.6 64% 3.5 25.7 60% -0.4 31.5 73% 2.6 21.3 47% -1.1 26.1 64% 3.8 26.6 64% 0.1 25.4 86% 8.2 23.1 80% 4.7 20.8 80% 5.7 34.5 64% 1.6 29.4 40% 0.2 26.3
AFL Scorigami 71% 3.6 19.1 47% -0.2 34.0 79% 2.2 21.2 79% 2.3 22.9 71% 4.7 30.8 71% 4.6 24.1 53% 0.4 30.4 57% 3.2 25.7 60% -1.1 30.5 73% 2.8 22.3 60% 0.6 25.9 79% 4.3 28.2 71% 1.9 23.7 86% 6.7 26.0 73% 3.6 22.6 80% 5.0 37.4 64% 2.7 30.8 47% 0.6 28.3
Graft 64% 3.1 22.7 47% 2.1 34.0 64% 1.9 30.4 79% 4.0 22.4 86% 4.8 32.0 79% 4.4 18.4 53% 1.3 27.4 57% 2.9 26.5 67% 1.6 30.3 67% 2.0 24.6 60% 1.7 27.1 71% 3.9 25.1 71% 0.7 28.2 86% 6.5 20.9 87% 3.8 24.4 73% 5.3 37.3 64% 3.4 30.9 33% -0.4 31.5
Squiggle 71% 2.6 16.5 53% 2.3 32.4 43% 0.6 25.5 79% 3.5 21.4 86% 4.1 30.1 79% 4.5 22.7 53% 1.6 27.2 71% 2.6 26.4 60% 2.7 25.9 73% 2.1 24.8 47% 0.2 27.5 79% 4.5 26.4 64% 0.8 23.0 86% 6.3 26.0 67% 3.9 19.9 87% 6.1 36.3 71% 3.8 29.0 40% -0.8 29.5
Cheap Stats 62% 2.0 21.1 57% 1.8 31.1 69% 2.4 21.1 85% 1.9 24.2 79% 4.1 32.3 85% 4.8 22.4 71% 1.6 29.2 69% 2.8 27.1 54% 0.6 33.2 77% 1.1 26.2 50% 0.6 25.2 77% 2.1 30.4 69% 1.7 25.2 77% 4.8 26.1 79% 3.0 21.1 93% 5.7 32.8 79% 3.0 28.4 64% 0.2 27.4
Elo Predicts! 64% 3.6 17.7 60% 1.6 33.3 57% -0.0 25.6 71% 3.4 22.1 71% 5.2 26.9 71% 4.1 19.2 53% 0.5 27.4 71% 3.0 28.3 67% -0.3 33.5 73% 1.9 20.8 60% 0.8 25.4 64% 3.0 32.6 64% 0.5 25.9 86% 6.8 25.5 80% 4.1 20.2 80% 5.1 35.9 64% 2.8 31.1 33% -0.9 30.0
Hyperion 75% 3.4 19.1 50% 0.9 32.6 58% -0.0 31.3 77% 3.1 19.4 85% 5.7 26.8 85% 6.6 18.8 71% 1.2 29.3 69% 3.7 24.2 60% -1.0 34.7 79% 3.2 21.4 50% 0.9 25.4 77% 3.8 30.5 62% 0.6 27.6 85% 7.1 22.1 73% 3.5 22.2 79% 4.8 32.8 69% 1.5 25.1 50% -2.2 34.4
Massey Ratings 70% 3.0 21.1 46% 1.2 34.6 64% 0.8 29.0 83% 3.3 19.2 82% 4.5 28.0 82% 4.1 21.4 62% 0.9 30.4 73% 2.3 25.8 62% 0.5 32.0 69% 2.0 24.4 55% 1.0 25.2 82% 4.6 32.8 64% 1.6 24.0 82% 6.2 22.9 83% 4.3 23.8 92% 5.4 33.2 80% 3.5 26.6 46% -1.2 31.4