LEADERBOARD

After Round 6, 2024.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Elo Predicts!

3 7 7 5 9 4 5

40 7.95 23.09 74.1%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 4 9 4 5

38 9.75 23.53 70.4%
FMI

3 7 6 4 9 4 5

38 7.54 24.30 70.4%
Hyperion

1 7 7 4 9 4 5

37 8.66 23.65 68.5%
Winnable

3 7 6 4 9 4 4

37 7.60 24.45 68.5%
Live Ladders

3 8 7 4 8 4 3

37 7.49 24.37 68.5%
Punters

3 7 6 4 9 4 4

37 7.48 24.04 68.5%
AFLalytics

3 7 6 4 8 4 5

37 7.27 25.03 68.5%
Aggregate

3 6 6 4 9 4 5

37 7.05 24.40 68.5%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 6 4 9 4 5

37 5.81 24.63 68.5%
s10

3 6 6 4 8 4 5

36 7.34 24.61 66.7%
Cheap Stats

1 7 6 4 9 4 5

36 6.38 25.35 66.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 6 6 5 8 4 4

36 6.28 25.12 66.7%
ZaphBot

3 5 6 6 8 4 4

36 6.04 24.30 66.7%
Matter of Stats

3 6 6 4 8 4 5

36 5.79 25.26 66.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 4 8 4 5

36 4.42 26.29 66.7%
AFL Lab

3 7 6 4 9 3 4

36 4.30 24.09 66.7%
The Cruncher

3 6 6 4 8 4 4

35 7.10 25.11 64.8%
Graft

2 6 6 4 9 4 4

35 6.58 25.33 64.8%
Massey Ratings

2 7 8 4 7 4 3

35 5.84 25.00 64.8%
The Footycast

3 6 6 4 9 4 3

35 5.26 25.32 64.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 4 8 4 4

35 4.89 25.24 64.8%
The Wooden Finger

3 5 6 5 9 4 3

35 4.73 26.15 64.8%
Informed Stats

2 7 6 4 8 4 4

35 3.56 25.59 64.8%
Data by Josh

3 7 6 4 6 4 4

34 9.39 25.09 63.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 6 6 4 7 4 4

34 6.50 25.41 63.0%
Drop Kick Data

3 6 6 3 8 4 4

34 6.22 25.18 63.0%
Squiggle

2 6 6 4 7 4 4

33 6.75 24.86 61.1%
Stattraction

1 5 6 4 9 4 3

32 4.34 26.17 59.3%
PlusSixOne

1 7 6 5 5 4 4

32 3.27 27.31 59.3%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Elo Predicts! 67% -0.5 13.7 17% -1.6 25.8 67% -0.2 13.2 50% -0.2 29.0 50% -0.1 23.3 67% -0.4 26.5 83% 1.6 14.8 100% 2.1 27.0 100% 2.6 20.7 100% 2.8 22.2 83% 0.6 21.2 100% 4.1 17.2 100% 2.0 22.8 67% -0.6 25.0 67% 0.2 20.5 67% 1.3 24.0 67% 1.1 36.8 83% 1.1 32.0
Wheelo Ratings 33% -1.3 18.3 33% -1.2 28.1 67% -0.3 13.2 50% -0.6 31.3 50% -0.1 23.9 67% 0.3 25.2 67% 1.2 20.8 100% 2.9 22.6 100% 3.2 17.7 83% 2.5 27.3 67% 0.4 24.1 100% 4.9 18.0 83% 2.7 21.5 67% 0.2 18.7 83% 1.3 19.8 67% 1.0 25.3 67% 1.6 33.0 83% 0.9 34.6
FMI 50% -1.1 19.7 17% -1.0 30.8 67% 0.4 13.5 50% -0.2 33.2 50% -0.4 27.5 67% -0.8 28.0 67% 1.4 16.5 100% 2.0 20.3 100% 2.7 17.5 100% 2.6 21.2 67% 0.4 22.3 100% 3.8 18.5 83% 2.1 23.3 67% -0.3 25.8 67% 0.3 23.2 67% 1.4 26.0 67% 0.8 39.8 83% 1.1 30.2
Hyperion 83% -0.2 11.8 17% -1.7 30.7 67% -0.9 17.8 33% -1.1 35.2 67% 0.9 19.5 67% 0.5 22.0 83% 2.4 11.8 83% 1.9 24.8 83% 2.4 22.5 100% 3.0 23.2 67% 0.7 24.3 100% 4.5 18.3 83% 1.7 23.3 50% -0.6 28.0 50% 0.2 21.3 67% 0.9 21.8 67% 1.3 34.2 67% 1.3 35.0
Winnable 50% -1.5 18.7 33% -1.5 31.3 67% -0.1 14.3 50% -0.3 28.2 33% -0.5 26.1 83% 0.6 22.6 67% 0.5 23.6 100% 1.9 26.2 100% 2.9 17.3 83% 1.5 30.5 67% 0.4 24.9 100% 4.5 22.9 83% 2.2 22.5 67% 0.2 20.3 50% 0.7 18.4 67% 1.5 21.6 67% 1.6 33.4 67% 0.9 37.1
Live Ladders 33% -1.6 19.3 33% -1.0 29.0 67% -0.2 16.5 50% -0.2 26.3 50% -0.3 23.8 83% 0.4 23.0 67% 0.6 21.7 100% 1.8 27.5 100% 2.7 18.7 100% 2.2 26.0 50% 0.1 26.2 100% 3.9 23.8 67% 1.7 24.8 67% 0.5 20.5 67% 0.7 18.8 67% 1.1 21.2 67% 2.0 33.5 67% 0.6 38.0
Punters 50% -1.6 18.4 17% -2.1 31.9 67% -0.6 14.8 50% -0.5 30.9 50% -0.2 22.5 67% -0.3 26.9 67% 0.7 21.3 100% 2.7 22.5 100% 3.2 15.6 100% 2.9 25.9 67% 0.2 24.0 100% 4.3 19.6 83% 2.3 19.6 67% 0.2 22.9 50% 1.0 23.1 67% 0.7 25.6 67% 1.4 31.2 67% 0.6 36.0
AFLalytics 50% -1.2 18.8 33% -1.5 31.0 67% -0.4 15.4 50% -0.3 28.8 33% -0.4 24.3 83% 0.2 25.3 50% 0.5 25.7 100% 2.3 26.0 100% 2.8 19.2 83% 2.0 29.0 67% 0.0 25.9 100% 3.8 26.4 83% 2.3 23.2 67% 0.1 19.6 67% 0.7 21.2 67% 1.5 21.4 67% 1.7 32.2 67% 0.3 36.9
Aggregate 50% -1.3 18.6 17% -1.3 30.4 67% -0.1 15.2 50% -0.3 29.5 33% -0.4 24.5 67% -0.2 25.9 67% 0.9 21.1 100% 1.9 26.4 100% 2.7 17.7 83% 2.1 27.4 67% 0.4 24.6 100% 3.8 22.8 83% 2.1 22.0 67% -0.1 22.3 67% 0.6 19.4 67% 1.2 22.5 67% 1.3 33.2 83% 0.6 35.7
Don't Blame the Data 50% -1.1 17.2 17% -1.9 32.0 67% -0.5 15.0 50% -0.8 30.2 50% -0.0 22.1 67% 0.1 26.5 67% 1.1 19.4 100% 1.4 29.3 100% 2.1 20.9 100% 2.2 25.6 50% 0.1 25.4 100% 3.8 20.4 83% 2.0 24.4 67% -0.3 22.4 67% 0.4 18.4 50% 1.1 21.5 67% 1.4 35.4 83% 0.6 37.2
s10 50% -1.3 19.0 17% -1.4 31.7 67% -0.0 14.8 50% -0.3 30.1 33% -0.1 23.2 67% -0.2 26.8 50% 0.6 22.3 100% 1.9 25.5 100% 2.8 17.5 83% 2.2 26.6 67% 0.2 25.0 100% 3.9 23.4 83% 2.2 23.7 67% -0.1 22.1 67% 0.7 19.6 67% 1.2 23.3 67% 1.5 33.4 67% 0.7 34.8
Cheap Stats 50% -0.6 17.0 33% -0.9 31.0 83% 0.7 14.2 33% -0.8 34.5 50% -0.1 24.0 67% -0.6 26.2 67% 1.3 19.8 83% 1.3 26.2 83% 2.4 17.8 100% 2.5 22.8 50% -0.1 27.2 100% 3.9 20.0 83% 1.6 24.3 50% -0.7 29.7 67% 0.5 23.2 50% 0.4 26.2 67% 1.1 35.8 83% 0.8 36.5
What Snoo Thinks 33% -1.8 19.7 33% -1.1 29.3 67% -0.3 15.6 50% -0.7 28.3 33% -0.7 25.5 83% -0.1 24.9 50% 0.6 23.7 83% 1.2 31.0 100% 3.1 19.1 83% 1.6 28.8 83% 1.1 21.0 100% 3.8 27.5 100% 2.4 21.4 67% -0.3 21.7 50% 0.5 21.0 67% 1.1 23.0 67% 1.6 33.2 50% 0.4 37.6
ZaphBot 33% -2.8 24.5 50% 0.4 22.2 50% 0.3 15.5 67% 0.8 26.5 33% -2.1 32.5 67% -0.3 25.0 67% 0.7 22.8 83% 1.6 25.8 100% 2.8 15.8 67% 1.0 36.3 67% 0.5 24.3 83% 2.8 28.7 100% 2.6 15.2 67% 0.2 21.7 67% 0.5 19.8 67% 1.2 21.5 67% 1.7 25.5 67% 0.3 33.7
Matter of Stats 50% -1.8 20.9 17% -2.1 33.6 67% -0.7 17.7 50% -0.6 28.9 33% -0.4 24.7 67% -0.1 26.4 50% -0.2 25.9 100% 2.4 23.9 100% 3.5 16.8 83% 1.7 28.3 67% 0.5 23.5 100% 3.8 26.1 83% 2.3 22.4 67% -0.3 21.7 67% 0.5 21.1 67% 1.1 22.4 67% 1.4 33.6 67% 0.6 36.7
AFL Scorigami 50% -1.9 18.4 33% -1.6 31.2 67% -0.5 16.9 50% -0.2 27.0 33% -1.5 28.2 83% -0.2 23.7 50% -0.0 25.2 100% 2.0 28.5 100% 3.2 17.7 83% 1.3 33.1 67% 0.3 25.2 100% 2.9 35.6 67% 1.7 26.9 50% 0.3 20.5 67% 0.1 19.0 67% 1.5 19.1 67% 1.3 36.4 67% 0.0 40.8
AFL Lab 33% -1.8 22.0 33% -2.3 33.9 67% 0.7 9.7 50% -0.3 29.1 50% -0.7 22.9 83% -0.2 28.2 67% 0.2 23.4 83% 1.1 30.8 83% 2.0 12.6 100% 2.1 23.7 67% -1.0 28.5 100% 3.7 19.8 83% 1.8 26.1 67% 0.0 20.2 33% -0.0 17.5 67% 1.6 20.6 67% 1.2 30.2 67% 0.6 34.3
The Cruncher 33% -2.0 20.2 17% -1.1 29.2 50% -0.0 13.7 50% -0.4 28.6 50% -0.2 24.2 50% -0.7 28.1 50% 0.8 23.5 100% 2.4 24.2 83% 3.0 19.7 83% 2.3 27.6 67% 0.0 25.9 100% 4.0 25.1 83% 2.4 23.5 67% -0.9 23.7 83% 1.2 22.5 67% 1.5 23.7 67% 1.3 32.9 67% 0.6 35.7
Graft 33% -1.3 21.3 17% -1.6 34.0 67% 0.3 13.5 33% -0.4 35.2 50% 0.2 22.8 67% -0.9 31.8 67% 1.0 17.3 83% 1.7 23.2 83% 2.1 17.8 100% 3.0 19.5 67% 0.3 22.5 100% 3.5 20.2 83% 2.1 28.7 67% -0.4 26.7 50% 0.1 21.3 67% 1.4 26.3 67% 0.8 42.8 67% 1.1 31.0
Massey Ratings 67% -0.8 14.7 17% -0.6 26.3 50% -0.3 18.0 33% 0.0 30.3 50% -0.7 25.2 50% -0.8 24.2 83% 2.0 16.7 100% 1.5 29.8 83% 2.3 19.5 100% 2.5 29.0 67% 0.7 23.0 100% 3.8 23.2 67% 1.6 23.5 50% -1.3 28.2 50% 0.5 21.0 67% 1.4 22.2 67% -0.0 37.0 67% 0.0 38.3
The Footycast 33% -1.0 17.8 17% -1.7 33.8 67% 0.0 16.0 33% -0.8 31.7 50% -0.0 24.1 67% -0.3 25.5 67% 1.2 18.8 83% 1.0 31.1 100% 2.3 18.0 100% 1.8 27.3 67% 0.1 24.7 100% 3.3 23.2 67% 1.6 23.9 67% -0.3 25.7 50% 0.5 20.6 67% 1.1 23.7 67% 1.1 34.5 67% 0.6 35.6
footycharts 50% -2.0 20.0 33% -1.9 31.8 67% -0.3 15.8 50% -0.3 26.5 33% -1.0 28.2 83% 0.0 24.5 50% 0.0 25.2 83% 1.5 29.2 100% 2.1 18.7 83% 1.8 26.0 67% 0.4 25.2 100% 3.9 22.2 83% 2.3 22.3 67% 0.1 22.0 50% 0.2 19.2 67% 1.2 24.5 67% 1.6 34.5 33% 0.2 38.7
The Wooden Finger 33% -2.5 23.5 17% -1.6 31.3 50% 0.4 15.8 50% -0.1 29.3 33% -2.7 35.3 67% -1.4 27.8 67% 0.9 20.3 83% 2.1 23.8 83% 3.5 15.5 83% 2.1 27.2 83% 0.6 22.7 100% 4.2 22.5 100% 2.7 21.5 67% -0.3 27.3 50% -0.1 26.5 67% 1.2 29.7 67% 0.3 36.7 67% 0.2 33.8
Informed Stats 17% -1.5 20.5 17% -1.0 30.7 50% -0.0 14.7 33% -0.1 27.3 67% -0.7 29.3 50% -2.6 30.0 67% 1.0 19.7 100% 2.0 24.8 67% 2.1 21.2 100% 2.0 27.0 50% 0.2 26.3 100% 3.6 22.7 83% 1.8 25.3 67% -1.2 23.2 83% 1.2 19.0 67% 1.6 20.3 67% -2.0 42.3 83% 0.7 36.3
Data by Josh 0% -2.2 21.8 33% -0.7 28.0 33% -0.1 18.7 67% 0.7 25.2 50% -0.0 22.8 50% -0.1 26.7 50% -0.6 27.0 83% 2.4 22.8 83% 3.3 20.8 83% 1.7 30.7 50% 0.0 26.5 100% 4.4 26.0 83% 2.2 25.8 67% 1.0 23.2 83% 1.7 20.8 83% 1.8 19.3 67% 2.4 30.7 67% 0.7 34.8
Glicko Ratings 33% -1.8 20.2 17% -1.7 31.9 50% -0.9 16.5 50% -0.0 27.4 50% 0.2 22.0 50% 0.0 26.8 50% -0.0 25.9 100% 2.3 24.2 83% 3.3 19.3 83% 1.9 29.6 67% 0.0 25.7 100% 4.2 25.6 83% 2.5 23.7 50% -1.1 24.7 67% 0.6 22.2 67% 1.2 23.3 67% 1.6 32.6 67% 0.6 35.6
Drop Kick Data 33% -1.7 20.2 17% -1.1 29.1 50% -0.3 15.8 50% 0.0 28.5 33% -0.7 26.4 50% -0.5 27.8 50% 0.0 23.6 100% 2.1 24.5 83% 3.0 18.1 83% 1.8 30.4 67% 0.2 25.9 100% 4.1 18.9 83% 2.2 24.6 67% -0.3 21.8 67% 0.9 20.0 67% 1.5 21.1 67% 1.3 36.6 67% -0.1 40.0
Squiggle 33% -1.1 17.0 17% -1.3 32.1 50% -0.6 16.9 50% -0.1 28.7 50% -0.1 24.1 50% -0.5 26.5 50% 1.0 21.8 83% 1.1 30.9 100% 2.6 17.2 100% 2.1 28.1 50% 0.8 21.7 100% 3.4 28.5 83% 2.3 20.3 67% -0.3 21.8 50% 0.9 18.5 50% 0.6 26.8 67% 1.9 31.8 50% 0.9 34.6
Stattraction 17% -1.4 18.7 17% -1.3 29.5 50% 0.4 14.5 17% -1.0 31.4 33% -1.4 28.7 50% -1.4 28.0 67% 1.3 21.0 83% 1.2 33.2 67% 2.5 21.0 83% 2.3 27.7 67% 0.7 24.5 100% 4.0 25.8 83% 2.2 23.3 67% -0.7 23.0 67% 0.4 19.4 50% 0.3 27.6 67% 0.3 35.4 83% 0.3 38.3
PlusSixOne 17% -0.7 16.8 33% -0.9 30.9 50% -0.4 17.1 50% -0.2 27.1 50% 0.2 24.6 67% 0.2 23.0 50% 0.4 25.1 67% 0.8 32.8 83% 1.0 26.3 100% 0.9 32.6 50% -0.3 28.9 100% 1.6 41.0 67% 1.1 27.3 33% -0.1 21.4 50% 0.3 15.9 83% 0.9 22.1 67% 1.2 38.8 50% 0.5 39.9