LEADERBOARD

After 7 games of Round 23, 2025.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 5

148 46.15 26.24 75.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8 8 6

148 43.77 25.96 75.9%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 5

146 47.43 26.07 74.9%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 5

146 44.16 26.14 74.9%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8 7 5

146 43.91 25.95 74.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 4

146 42.13 26.87 74.9%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 5

145 44.57 26.20 74.4%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 5

145 43.80 26.02 74.4%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8 6 4

145 37.83 26.76 74.4%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8 8 5

143 42.97 26.49 73.3%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8 7 5

142 46.44 27.49 72.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8 7 5

142 44.51 27.45 72.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8 6 6

142 40.90 26.67 72.8%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8 7 5

141 47.08 26.07 72.3%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 5

141 43.94 26.32 72.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 5

140 48.50 25.81 71.8%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8 7 5

140 46.78 25.88 71.8%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8 8 6

140 45.71 26.42 71.8%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8 7 5

140 41.45 26.67 71.8%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8 7 5

140 32.92 27.87 71.8%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8 7 6

139 41.78 26.91 71.3%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8 7 5

138 40.39 27.20 70.8%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 5

138 37.91 27.62 70.8%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8 7 5

137 38.01 27.77 70.3%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7 8 5

137 37.67 27.81 70.3%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8 7 5

136 22.91 29.17 69.7%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8 7 4

135 38.67 27.12 69.2%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8 8 4

131 37.51 28.13 67.2%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Matter of Stats 91% 7.2 28.3 55% -2.0 31.2 77% 4.0 22.9 73% 4.9 26.3 90% 9.8 24.4 68% 3.6 22.4 71% 5.2 25.3 76% 2.7 24.9 64% 1.5 29.1 82% 4.9 20.4 64% 3.3 24.6 91% 9.2 28.0 73% 6.1 34.5 82% 7.3 26.0 73% 4.5 25.7 71% 2.1 23.7 90% 12.2 25.7 76% 5.7 28.8
Don't Blame the Data 86% 5.5 27.7 64% -0.1 28.9 82% 3.1 24.2 77% 4.3 25.1 81% 8.4 24.4 68% 3.1 22.7 71% 5.4 26.1 71% 2.4 26.0 59% 1.1 30.6 82% 5.9 19.0 73% 3.5 22.5 91% 9.2 27.3 73% 4.8 34.0 82% 7.9 26.1 73% 4.2 25.1 67% 2.3 21.8 90% 11.1 26.6 76% 5.5 29.1
Punters 91% 8.7 25.3 59% -1.7 29.5 77% 3.3 23.1 68% 4.9 26.8 81% 10.7 24.5 68% 3.6 23.4 62% 4.5 27.3 76% 2.3 25.7 55% 0.4 28.9 77% 6.0 18.9 68% 3.0 25.4 91% 9.4 27.8 73% 6.3 33.2 82% 6.7 27.4 73% 5.1 26.0 71% 2.6 22.9 90% 12.5 25.9 86% 6.5 27.3
Aggregate 91% 7.5 26.5 59% -1.2 29.1 77% 3.5 23.3 73% 4.6 26.1 86% 9.0 24.2 68% 3.5 23.0 67% 4.9 26.6 67% 2.2 26.0 55% 0.8 30.0 82% 5.2 19.6 68% 3.1 24.4 91% 8.8 27.3 73% 5.5 33.9 82% 7.6 26.9 73% 4.3 25.7 67% 2.1 22.4 90% 11.4 26.3 81% 5.5 29.1
Glicko Ratings 82% 7.2 26.7 59% -1.8 30.5 68% 2.3 24.6 77% 4.7 26.0 95% 10.3 23.3 68% 2.9 23.8 67% 4.8 25.8 76% 2.1 25.7 55% -0.1 30.7 77% 3.9 21.3 64% 2.6 23.2 91% 9.1 28.0 73% 6.5 32.4 82% 7.5 27.0 73% 5.1 24.7 71% 3.7 21.5 90% 12.1 24.4 81% 4.9 27.3
Live Ladders 91% 8.1 27.6 59% -1.3 27.8 77% 3.1 24.8 77% 5.5 25.0 90% 7.6 25.8 68% 3.3 23.5 71% 5.3 27.5 76% 2.7 26.5 55% 0.4 31.8 82% 6.4 20.4 64% 2.8 24.7 82% 8.1 28.4 77% 5.4 33.3 77% 6.7 28.5 68% 3.4 25.7 67% 1.4 22.3 86% 10.0 29.1 81% 5.4 31.2
Winnable 86% 8.9 25.7 59% -2.1 29.6 77% 2.3 24.2 68% 3.7 28.7 86% 10.7 24.1 68% 3.1 22.6 67% 4.6 28.2 62% 1.7 26.6 59% -0.6 31.7 77% 6.0 20.6 68% 2.4 24.4 95% 9.2 28.6 68% 6.2 31.9 82% 7.6 24.8 73% 4.9 24.0 67% 2.3 22.5 90% 12.1 26.7 86% 6.0 26.7
s10 86% 7.5 26.2 59% -0.9 28.2 77% 3.6 23.5 73% 4.8 25.1 81% 8.8 24.8 68% 3.2 23.0 67% 5.1 26.1 67% 2.5 25.8 64% 0.6 30.2 73% 5.3 19.6 64% 2.9 24.3 91% 8.4 27.5 73% 5.4 33.9 82% 7.6 26.8 73% 4.0 25.9 71% 2.4 21.7 90% 11.2 26.4 81% 5.3 29.4
AFL Lab 95% 7.1 25.6 59% -2.1 30.1 73% 2.8 23.9 73% 3.7 26.3 81% 7.4 26.4 73% 2.0 23.3 71% 5.6 26.4 67% 2.3 27.4 59% -0.6 31.3 82% 5.2 19.8 68% 2.7 22.8 82% 7.1 30.0 73% 5.3 33.4 73% 7.0 27.9 64% 2.9 26.6 76% 2.6 20.8 90% 9.7 28.3 81% 4.9 31.4
ZaphBot 77% 5.9 25.6 55% -0.6 29.9 77% 4.0 25.4 73% 3.7 25.1 86% 9.0 26.0 68% 4.1 22.2 67% 5.7 25.9 76% 3.5 24.8 64% 1.1 30.8 64% 5.5 20.0 64% 2.2 25.1 91% 7.3 29.3 73% 4.2 34.9 86% 8.7 24.9 68% 3.1 28.1 62% 2.5 24.6 90% 11.0 24.6 81% 5.1 29.7
Informed Stats 91% 9.7 27.5 55% -2.9 35.5 73% 3.5 22.4 64% 2.4 29.5 86% 10.8 25.0 64% 5.0 23.9 71% 5.2 25.8 67% 2.1 26.7 55% 0.5 29.6 82% 4.6 22.0 64% 2.0 27.2 91% 10.0 29.4 68% 6.9 33.5 82% 6.4 28.3 68% 3.8 29.1 71% 3.5 23.5 90% 13.2 26.0 71% 6.2 29.5
The Wooden Finger 91% 8.6 27.7 55% -2.3 33.6 77% 3.3 24.2 68% 4.4 28.4 86% 9.7 23.8 64% 3.2 23.4 71% 4.7 26.1 62% 0.7 27.3 59% 1.4 30.0 68% 5.4 23.0 73% 3.8 27.1 91% 9.6 28.0 73% 5.0 34.5 82% 7.6 26.5 77% 4.7 25.8 57% 1.2 24.8 90% 11.9 28.9 67% 5.9 31.0
Squiggle 82% 8.3 27.2 59% -0.5 29.9 73% 1.8 25.5 73% 5.4 26.5 90% 9.0 24.2 64% 2.7 23.4 67% 4.4 26.4 71% 1.2 27.3 45% -1.1 33.0 77% 4.4 21.0 59% 3.1 24.4 91% 8.7 27.1 73% 6.2 31.5 82% 6.2 28.5 64% 3.8 25.4 71% 2.5 22.1 90% 10.1 28.4 81% 5.4 28.1
Drop Kick Data 91% 8.0 26.3 55% -1.0 29.5 68% 4.0 22.7 73% 4.8 26.0 86% 10.4 25.9 64% 2.7 22.8 67% 5.2 26.0 62% 2.2 25.8 55% 0.3 31.0 73% 4.8 19.9 64% 2.8 24.8 91% 9.4 27.0 68% 6.1 33.3 82% 8.0 26.8 73% 4.6 26.5 71% 3.7 22.2 90% 12.6 24.7 71% 5.5 27.8
AFLalytics 82% 7.5 27.0 59% -2.9 30.9 73% 3.4 24.2 77% 4.2 26.9 86% 9.6 24.2 68% 3.3 22.8 67% 4.9 26.3 71% 2.1 26.3 55% 0.3 30.4 73% 4.1 21.6 55% 3.6 23.5 91% 9.1 27.5 68% 6.3 32.4 82% 8.1 27.0 68% 5.1 25.9 62% 2.4 22.8 90% 11.5 26.3 76% 5.5 27.6
The Cruncher 82% 8.9 25.9 55% -2.7 30.8 73% 3.9 23.6 73% 4.1 28.0 81% 10.8 23.1 64% 2.8 23.7 67% 5.5 24.7 76% 2.5 24.9 55% 1.0 28.1 68% 3.3 22.6 55% 3.8 24.8 91% 9.9 26.0 68% 6.5 33.0 82% 7.6 26.7 73% 5.6 25.3 71% 4.2 21.4 90% 13.3 23.9 71% 5.9 27.7
Wheelo Ratings 82% 9.0 24.3 55% -2.3 31.7 68% 3.6 23.4 68% 4.8 26.5 81% 10.9 24.3 64% 3.1 24.1 62% 5.0 25.0 71% 1.8 25.1 55% -0.4 30.4 73% 4.4 20.3 59% 3.1 24.4 91% 9.8 26.6 68% 6.4 33.5 82% 7.7 26.5 73% 4.9 26.2 76% 4.1 20.9 90% 11.9 24.7 76% 5.7 27.5
Massey Ratings 77% 7.6 27.0 64% -1.1 27.8 77% 4.2 23.8 73% 5.6 24.4 81% 9.1 24.6 59% 3.3 23.0 67% 5.2 27.0 67% 2.8 25.6 55% 1.1 29.3 73% 6.3 19.8 68% 3.1 25.1 86% 8.4 28.2 73% 5.0 35.2 77% 8.5 27.5 73% 3.5 26.7 62% 1.2 23.5 90% 12.4 26.0 71% 5.1 31.1
Cheap Stats 82% 7.3 23.8 55% 0.1 29.0 77% 3.1 22.9 73% 5.5 25.5 86% 8.4 26.8 64% 4.0 24.5 62% 4.0 28.2 67% 1.7 25.2 50% 0.9 30.6 73% 4.3 19.6 64% 2.5 25.5 86% 7.5 28.5 68% 4.2 36.4 86% 6.7 27.8 73% 4.5 26.3 62% 0.6 26.7 95% 12.1 24.1 71% 5.4 28.7
The Footycast 77% 5.9 29.6 55% -1.3 30.3 73% 2.8 23.3 68% 4.1 26.9 86% 7.4 24.3 68% 1.4 25.8 67% 3.2 29.5 62% 1.4 28.2 59% 0.9 31.3 68% 3.5 22.9 64% 1.0 27.7 91% 7.3 28.7 77% 3.6 36.0 82% 5.8 28.2 77% 4.1 23.3 62% 0.8 24.4 90% 11.0 28.9 67% 2.9 32.2
Stattraction 82% 6.7 28.3 59% -0.6 27.2 73% 3.5 23.5 59% 3.8 28.0 86% 8.5 25.5 68% 3.7 23.6 57% 3.7 29.2 62% 0.4 28.1 59% 0.8 30.9 68% 5.5 20.1 68% 3.6 24.9 91% 9.2 27.0 73% 4.9 34.4 82% 7.9 26.3 73% 4.2 26.9 67% 1.7 23.1 90% 10.6 27.4 67% 5.5 30.1
What Snoo Thinks 86% 6.0 29.0 50% -2.6 29.4 73% 2.3 25.9 68% 3.9 28.1 81% 8.4 25.5 68% 3.9 23.7 62% 4.8 27.1 71% 1.9 26.9 59% 0.6 30.9 73% 4.5 21.5 68% 3.3 24.5 86% 8.7 27.8 64% 5.0 34.3 77% 6.9 29.1 73% 4.6 25.0 57% 1.0 23.2 90% 11.7 27.7 67% 5.6 29.9
Graft 86% 7.8 29.9 55% -1.8 34.6 77% 3.1 22.5 68% 4.6 27.4 86% 7.5 24.0 73% 3.7 22.4 62% 3.6 27.9 67% 1.6 26.5 55% 0.9 29.9 73% 4.6 21.0 59% 2.1 27.8 86% 8.1 29.6 68% 4.7 34.9 82% 7.0 27.0 68% 3.2 26.6 52% -0.1 26.5 86% 10.9 27.2 71% 4.2 31.5
footycharts 82% 8.0 29.5 59% -3.8 32.8 73% 2.5 24.9 73% 4.2 27.8 86% 9.1 24.3 68% 3.4 23.3 62% 4.4 27.5 67% 0.2 28.8 41% -2.3 34.6 77% 5.9 20.5 59% 1.9 24.5 86% 8.7 29.1 64% 6.4 33.0 82% 7.7 28.3 68% 4.3 27.0 57% 0.8 25.4 81% 9.5 30.4 81% 5.3 28.0
Hyperion 77% 5.1 29.8 50% -1.0 29.9 77% 3.1 23.5 68% 4.4 26.0 86% 6.7 27.5 68% 3.0 23.0 67% 4.8 30.6 57% 2.4 28.2 59% 1.9 29.3 73% 5.8 19.0 73% 3.2 24.9 86% 8.1 29.2 64% 2.3 38.5 82% 7.6 28.5 77% 2.9 26.6 43% 0.0 23.9 95% 11.5 27.3 62% 3.5 35.3
PlusSixOne 82% 3.8 28.5 50% -0.8 25.9 64% 1.5 27.7 68% 1.9 27.7 86% 3.9 27.9 73% 2.6 23.9 62% 2.9 33.8 52% 1.2 29.7 55% 0.8 31.0 77% 3.0 25.1 73% 1.9 25.5 86% 5.1 31.2 77% 3.2 36.0 77% 4.1 34.2 59% 1.8 27.3 57% 0.0 24.8 90% 6.2 30.9 67% 2.8 34.3
Elo Predicts! 73% 5.8 28.2 55% -1.1 24.4 82% 3.3 25.6 64% 3.8 25.5 76% 6.7 27.4 73% 3.9 22.9 67% 4.8 30.3 62% 1.2 28.3 55% 1.7 27.7 68% 4.8 22.0 59% 2.5 26.1 77% 7.5 27.2 73% 4.4 36.5 73% 7.2 28.7 77% 3.8 27.3 52% 0.6 22.3 86% 10.9 27.1 76% 5.5 30.9
AFL Scorigami 77% 7.3 29.0 45% -2.3 27.4 73% 3.6 24.5 64% 4.6 25.6 86% 8.9 23.2 55% 2.3 25.2 57% 3.5 31.9 52% 0.8 29.4 55% 0.2 30.9 68% 3.8 24.0 68% 3.0 24.8 86% 7.3 30.9 64% 5.7 36.1 77% 6.6 30.9 73% 3.9 26.3 57% 1.2 24.3 90% 10.7 29.7 62% 4.0 32.4