LEADERBOARD

After Round 26, 2025.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 3 1

162 48.16 25.84 76.1%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 8 1 1

160 49.21 26.09 75.1%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8 7 7 8 2 2

160 47.92 25.76 75.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 6 8 2 1

159 45.71 26.86 74.6%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1

158 52.13 25.99 74.2%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 2 1

158 48.38 26.08 74.2%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1

158 48.04 26.06 74.2%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8 6 6 8 2 1

158 42.16 26.46 74.2%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1

157 47.86 25.92 73.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8 7 7 8 2 1

155 46.86 27.48 72.8%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 1 1

154 47.35 26.21 72.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8 6 8 8 1 1

154 44.42 26.60 72.3%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8 7 7 7 2 1

153 50.93 25.86 71.8%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8 7 7 7 2 0

153 48.68 27.66 71.8%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1

153 47.48 26.17 71.8%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8 7 8 8 3 1

153 45.31 26.96 71.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 8 2 0

152 51.47 25.75 71.4%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 1 1

152 50.92 25.63 71.4%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8 8 8 8 1 1

152 49.98 26.43 71.4%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8 7 7 7 2 1

152 45.63 26.72 71.4%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8 7 7 8 1

151 36.39 27.63†2 71.6%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7 8 7 8 1 2

150 42.81 27.60 70.4%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 7 8 1 1

150 41.04 27.54 70.4%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8 7 7 8 2

149 41.09 27.43†2 70.6%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8 7 7 8

148 44.18 26.94†6 71.5%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8 7 6 8 2 1

148 43.51 26.99 69.5%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8 7 7 8 1 1

148 25.28 29.06 69.5%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8 8 6 6 3 2

144 40.11 28.05 67.6%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Don't Blame the Data 80% 5.9 27.7 68% 0.6 28.5 83% 3.4 24.1 75% 4.7 24.7 83% 9.4 25.7 67% 2.2 22.6 75% 6.9 25.6 72% 2.9 26.7 62% 1.6 29.1 80% 6.0 19.0 74% 3.9 22.0 91% 9.8 26.8 70% 4.3 33.3 83% 8.7 25.4 74% 4.7 24.4 70% 3.3 22.8 91% 12.6 27.2 74% 5.5 29.5
Matter of Stats 84% 7.1 28.6 60% -1.0 30.4 78% 4.6 22.4 71% 4.8 25.9 91% 11.3 24.9 62% 1.7 22.9 75% 6.9 24.6 72% 2.6 26.0 62% 1.9 28.6 76% 4.7 20.9 65% 3.6 23.7 91% 9.9 27.4 70% 5.0 34.3 83% 8.1 25.3 74% 5.2 25.3 74% 3.3 24.2 91% 13.9 25.2 74% 4.8 29.0
Glicko Ratings 80% 7.6 26.2 64% -1.1 30.0 70% 2.7 24.4 75% 5.1 25.4 96% 11.5 24.2 67% 1.8 23.6 71% 6.6 25.1 76% 2.1 26.7 54% 0.3 30.0 76% 3.7 21.4 65% 3.1 22.6 91% 9.6 27.1 70% 5.3 32.3 83% 8.4 26.4 74% 5.7 24.4 74% 4.9 22.1 91% 13.9 24.3 78% 4.7 27.4
Live Ladders 84% 8.2 28.1 64% -0.6 27.5 78% 3.4 24.8 75% 5.3 24.5 91% 8.7 27.3 62% 2.1 23.2 75% 7.0 26.3 72% 3.0 27.5 58% 1.0 30.4 80% 6.3 20.5 65% 3.1 23.8 83% 8.9 28.0 74% 4.8 32.7 78% 7.5 27.5 70% 3.9 25.1 70% 2.3 23.8 87% 11.3 30.8 78% 5.2 32.0
Punters 84% 9.0 25.9 64% -0.9 29.2 78% 3.9 22.6 67% 5.3 26.6 83% 12.2 24.8 62% 2.4 23.2 67% 6.1 27.1 72% 2.3 26.5 54% 1.0 28.2 72% 5.9 19.2 70% 3.6 25.0 91% 10.1 27.5 70% 5.3 32.9 83% 7.6 27.1 74% 5.9 25.8 74% 3.9 23.3 91% 14.2 25.8 83% 6.5 27.2
Winnable 80% 8.5 26.3 64% -1.3 29.2 78% 2.7 24.0 67% 3.4 28.1 87% 12.0 25.2 67% 1.9 22.5 71% 6.5 27.3 64% 2.3 27.0 58% -0.1 30.5 72% 5.5 21.0 70% 2.8 23.6 96% 9.9 27.8 65% 5.6 31.2 83% 8.5 24.2 74% 5.6 23.6 70% 3.5 23.3 91% 13.8 27.4 83% 5.7 27.3
Aggregate 84% 7.7 27.0 64% -0.6 28.8 78% 3.9 23.1 71% 4.6 25.7 87% 10.2 25.3 62% 2.4 22.9 71% 6.5 25.9 64% 2.3 26.9 54% 1.4 28.9 76% 5.1 19.8 70% 3.5 23.7 91% 9.5 26.9 70% 4.7 33.5 83% 8.4 26.2 74% 5.0 25.2 70% 3.3 23.2 91% 13.0 26.8 78% 5.3 29.5
AFL Lab 88% 7.3 26.0 64% -0.8 28.5 74% 3.0 24.1 71% 3.8 25.5 83% 8.3 28.0 67% 0.1 23.9 75% 7.5 25.0 64% 2.9 27.7 62% -0.1 29.7 80% 5.4 19.7 70% 3.0 22.0 83% 7.8 29.4 70% 5.2 32.2 74% 7.8 26.8 65% 3.3 25.7 78% 3.8 21.6 91% 11.3 28.9 78% 4.7 32.0
s10 80% 7.6 26.7 64% -0.4 27.9 78% 3.9 23.3 71% 4.8 24.8 83% 10.0 25.9 62% 2.1 22.8 71% 6.7 25.3 64% 2.6 26.7 62% 1.2 29.0 68% 5.3 19.8 65% 3.2 23.6 91% 9.1 27.1 70% 4.7 33.3 83% 8.5 26.0 74% 4.6 25.3 74% 3.6 22.4 91% 12.8 27.0 78% 5.2 29.9
The Wooden Finger 84% 8.4 29.2 60% -1.7 32.7 78% 3.8 23.9 67% 3.8 28.2 87% 11.0 24.5 58% 1.0 24.0 75% 6.7 25.5 60% 0.4 28.2 62% 2.2 29.2 68% 5.4 22.8 74% 4.2 26.2 91% 10.4 28.3 70% 3.8 34.3 83% 8.6 26.3 78% 5.4 25.6 61% 2.3 25.4 91% 13.4 28.9 65% 4.7 31.3
ZaphBot 72% 5.5 26.4 56% 0.1 29.1 78% 4.4 24.9 71% 3.1 25.1 87% 10.3 26.4 62% 3.5 21.7 71% 7.6 24.3 72% 3.9 25.5 62% 1.7 29.9 56% 5.3 20.4 65% 2.4 24.1 91% 7.8 28.6 70% 3.5 34.4 87% 9.5 24.1 70% 3.8 27.7 65% 3.9 24.2 91% 12.8 25.2 78% 5.5 30.2
Squiggle 76% 8.0 28.0 60% -0.2 29.9 74% 2.2 25.2 71% 5.1 26.6 91% 10.2 25.2 62% 1.7 23.4 67% 5.6 25.9 72% 1.7 27.9 46% -0.6 31.6 72% 4.3 21.1 61% 3.6 23.9 91% 9.4 26.6 70% 5.6 31.0 83% 7.1 27.6 65% 4.4 24.8 74% 3.7 22.6 91% 11.8 28.7 78% 5.2 28.7
Drop Kick Data 84% 8.4 26.3 56% -0.5 29.3 70% 4.5 22.2 71% 4.8 25.3 87% 11.8 26.1 62% 1.6 22.8 71% 7.1 25.0 64% 2.0 26.9 54% 0.8 29.9 64% 4.6 20.3 65% 3.1 23.9 91% 10.0 26.5 65% 4.8 33.4 83% 8.9 26.1 74% 5.2 25.9 74% 5.0 22.5 91% 14.3 24.9 70% 5.3 28.2
Informed Stats 84% 9.6 28.8 52% -3.5 35.7 74% 3.9 22.3 62% 2.1 29.0 87% 12.1 25.7 62% 4.4 24.3 75% 7.3 24.8 64% 0.5 29.7 54% 1.3 28.9 72% 4.0 22.6 65% 2.3 26.3 91% 10.9 29.4 65% 4.8 34.0 83% 7.3 28.1 70% 4.5 28.8 74% 4.9 23.5 91% 14.9 26.1 70% 6.1 29.6
AFLalytics 76% 7.5 27.2 64% -2.1 29.9 74% 3.8 23.9 75% 4.2 26.5 87% 10.9 25.0 62% 1.6 23.2 71% 6.7 25.3 68% 2.4 26.9 54% 0.6 29.7 68% 3.8 21.8 57% 4.1 22.9 91% 9.7 26.8 65% 5.7 31.9 83% 8.9 26.2 70% 5.8 25.4 65% 3.4 23.8 91% 13.1 26.4 74% 4.9 28.0
Stattraction 76% 6.8 29.4 64% -0.2 27.3 74% 4.0 23.1 58% 3.9 27.6 87% 9.8 26.0 67% 2.4 23.8 62% 5.1 29.2 64% 0.2 29.0 62% 1.6 29.3 68% 5.7 19.9 70% 3.9 24.2 91% 10.0 27.3 70% 3.8 34.4 83% 8.9 26.3 74% 4.7 26.3 70% 2.8 23.9 91% 12.2 27.7 65% 5.1 30.8
The Cruncher 76% 9.1 26.4 56% -2.3 30.5 74% 4.2 23.7 71% 4.1 27.3 83% 12.0 24.1 62% 1.2 23.8 71% 7.7 23.9 72% 1.7 26.5 54% 1.5 27.5 64% 3.0 22.7 57% 4.2 24.0 91% 10.7 25.7 65% 4.8 33.1 83% 8.6 26.4 74% 6.4 25.0 74% 5.8 21.5 91% 15.1 23.6 70% 5.1 27.7
Wheelo Ratings 76% 9.3 25.1 60% -1.3 30.7 70% 4.0 23.2 67% 4.9 25.9 83% 12.2 25.0 58% 1.6 24.1 67% 7.2 24.1 68% 1.5 26.3 54% 0.1 29.0 68% 4.7 20.2 61% 3.5 23.6 91% 10.6 26.4 65% 5.1 33.4 83% 8.7 26.3 74% 5.4 25.4 78% 5.6 20.9 91% 13.7 24.4 74% 5.3 27.6
Massey Ratings 72% 7.7 27.7 68% -0.2 27.4 78% 4.5 23.8 71% 5.5 24.5 83% 10.4 26.1 54% 1.8 23.0 71% 7.0 26.2 64% 3.2 26.5 54% 1.9 28.3 68% 6.4 19.9 70% 3.6 24.5 87% 9.2 28.1 70% 4.2 34.6 78% 9.4 26.8 74% 4.3 26.2 65% 2.4 24.2 91% 14.1 26.7 70% 4.6 31.5
Cheap Stats 76% 7.5 25.4 56% 0.4 28.9 78% 3.7 22.3 71% 5.7 25.6 87% 9.8 26.9 58% 3.2 24.4 67% 5.5 27.2 64% 1.4 26.5 54% 1.7 29.6 68% 4.1 20.2 65% 2.9 25.2 87% 8.3 28.3 65% 3.1 36.2 87% 7.6 27.0 74% 5.1 26.0 65% 1.8 26.8 96% 13.7 25.3 70% 5.7 29.6
The Footycast 75% 6.1 29.4 58% -1.0 29.3 74% 3.1 23.3 67% 4.1 26.7 87% 8.3 25.8 62% 0.6 25.3 71% 4.4 28.6 58% 1.5 28.1 58% 1.5 30.5 67% 3.6 22.1 65% 1.4 27.0 91% 7.9 28.1 74% 3.0 35.3 83% 6.5 27.1 78% 4.7 23.2 65% 1.6 25.6 91% 12.4 29.6 65% 2.9 32.4
Hyperion 80% 6.0 29.0 52% -0.0 28.8 78% 3.3 23.6 71% 5.1 25.5 87% 7.6 29.0 62% 2.1 22.6 67% 5.6 30.2 56% 3.0 28.2 58% 2.1 28.9 72% 5.8 19.1 74% 3.8 24.7 87% 8.9 28.8 61% 2.1 37.3 83% 8.4 27.3 78% 3.6 26.3 48% 0.8 25.2 96% 13.2 28.1 61% 4.2 34.9
Graft 80% 7.5 30.6 60% -1.2 33.3 78% 3.5 22.3 67% 4.1 27.2 87% 8.6 24.8 67% 2.3 23.0 67% 5.2 27.2 64% 1.8 27.3 54% 1.6 29.4 68% 4.6 20.9 61% 2.3 26.7 87% 8.7 29.3 65% 4.3 33.9 83% 7.9 27.0 70% 3.9 26.7 57% 0.7 27.1 87% 12.3 27.3 70% 4.0 31.4
footycharts 79% 8.2 29.6 62% -3.2 31.1 74% 3.0 24.4 71% 3.9 27.3 87% 10.5 24.8 62% 1.2 24.0 67% 5.9 27.2 62% 0.1 28.5 46% -1.6 32.9 79% 6.2 19.4 61% 2.2 23.6 87% 9.5 28.9 61% 5.7 32.6 83% 8.6 27.8 70% 4.9 26.5 61% 1.7 26.3 83% 11.1 30.3 78% 4.4 28.6
What Snoo Thinks 87% 6.9 29.1 52% -2.4 28.3 74% 2.8 25.5 70% 4.2 27.0 83% 9.7 26.6 65% 2.4 24.7 65% 6.3 26.0 70% 1.8 28.2 61% 1.1 29.8 74% 4.7 20.8 70% 3.6 23.5 87% 9.6 27.9 61% 4.0 33.9 78% 7.7 28.1 74% 5.2 24.3 61% 2.3 23.8 91% 13.4 27.6 65% 5.1 29.8
Elo Predicts! 68% 6.4 28.2 56% -0.7 25.2 83% 3.6 25.5 62% 4.2 24.9 78% 7.9 28.9 71% 3.1 22.4 67% 5.9 30.1 64% 1.8 29.0 58% 2.4 26.3 68% 5.2 21.6 61% 3.0 25.4 78% 8.3 27.2 70% 4.0 35.5 74% 8.0 28.0 78% 4.5 26.3 57% 1.4 23.0 87% 12.5 27.7 74% 5.5 31.1
PlusSixOne 76% 3.6 28.1 56% -0.1 25.8 65% 1.6 27.8 67% 1.9 27.1 87% 4.5 30.1 67% 1.9 23.5 67% 3.7 33.1 52% 1.6 30.4 54% 1.1 29.4 72% 3.0 24.6 74% 2.2 24.6 87% 5.4 29.9 74% 3.1 34.6 78% 4.6 33.4 61% 2.1 26.2 61% 0.3 27.0 91% 7.1 33.2 65% 3.0 35.2
AFL Scorigami 76% 7.8 28.2 48% -2.1 27.9 74% 3.9 24.7 58% 3.9 25.1 87% 10.0 25.1 54% 1.2 24.5 62% 5.1 31.1 56% 0.5 30.3 58% 0.9 29.2 68% 3.8 23.5 65% 2.8 24.2 87% 8.0 30.0 61% 4.5 35.6 78% 7.4 30.3 74% 4.5 25.2 61% 2.2 25.7 91% 12.2 31.4 61% 3.7 33.2