LEADERBOARD

After Round 9, 2025.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6

62 15.87 26.68 77.5%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8

62 15.38 25.71 77.5%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6

62 15.33 26.40 77.5%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6

61 15.68 26.05 76.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8

61 15.23 26.88 76.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6

60 15.78 26.32 75.0%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5

60 15.19 27.70 75.0%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6

60 14.54 26.47 75.0%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6

60 14.37 26.56 75.0%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6

59 16.76 25.73 73.8%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7

59 15.16 26.84 73.8%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6

59 14.75 26.09 73.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6

58 14.02 28.30 72.5%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6

58 13.92 27.26 72.5%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7

58 12.59 26.92 72.5%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6

58 12.47 27.63 72.5%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6

58 10.50 26.48 72.5%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7

57 15.92 25.77 71.2%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5

57 12.25 27.69 71.2%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6

57 11.41 27.61 71.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6

56 16.02 25.54 70.0%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6

55 11.65 27.95 68.8%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6

55 6.99 29.76 68.8%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6

54 10.52 28.40 67.5%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5

53 13.03 27.74 66.2%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6

53 11.67 27.80 66.2%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5

53 11.18 28.66 66.2%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5

53 6.43 29.42 66.2%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
AFL Lab 100% 2.2 23.1 89% 1.8 25.0 67% 1.5 25.5 67% 0.5 31.3 75% 2.1 23.0 89% 1.8 24.4 56% -0.0 19.4 75% 1.6 29.6 67% 0.2 23.8 89% 3.4 12.0 78% 1.4 26.0 89% 2.8 39.4 67% 1.6 35.7 78% 2.7 26.8 56% 0.5 39.8 78% 1.4 16.4 100% 4.4 31.8 78% 1.9 27.2
Glicko Ratings 89% 2.6 24.9 89% 2.5 23.0 67% 0.2 28.5 78% 1.6 27.8 100% 2.8 18.3 67% 0.8 27.3 44% -0.8 20.8 88% 0.7 29.3 67% 1.0 19.4 89% 2.8 14.5 78% 1.5 24.9 89% 3.1 33.6 67% 1.5 35.1 78% 0.9 29.8 67% 1.0 36.8 67% 1.0 18.2 100% 5.4 25.4 78% 2.0 24.7
Matter of Stats 89% 2.0 27.8 89% 1.7 24.6 89% 1.8 23.9 67% 0.9 29.7 88% 2.3 22.1 67% 1.4 24.9 56% -0.2 18.3 75% -0.0 31.7 78% 1.1 19.6 89% 3.1 13.4 78% 1.3 24.9 89% 3.5 34.3 67% 1.7 37.9 78% 1.2 29.6 67% 1.0 38.0 56% 0.3 19.3 100% 5.7 27.9 78% 1.6 27.4
Winnable 89% 3.3 20.4 89% 2.5 22.9 89% 0.5 27.5 67% 0.7 31.5 75% 3.0 21.7 67% 0.3 26.9 44% -1.0 22.5 62% -0.1 34.2 78% 1.3 21.6 78% 3.9 15.0 78% 1.3 25.8 100% 3.4 35.3 56% 1.5 33.2 78% 1.5 24.5 67% 1.2 36.2 67% 0.0 20.3 100% 5.8 26.9 89% 2.2 22.8
Live Ladders 89% 1.9 25.9 89% 1.8 20.6 78% 1.3 27.6 67% 1.6 28.1 88% 2.0 22.2 67% 1.7 26.2 56% -0.1 19.4 88% 0.9 30.5 56% 0.6 24.8 89% 3.6 14.3 67% 0.8 28.2 89% 3.3 34.9 67% 1.6 35.9 78% 2.2 27.3 67% 0.4 41.1 67% 0.8 18.2 100% 4.9 29.8 78% 1.3 28.6
Don't Blame the Data 89% 1.7 25.2 89% 2.4 24.3 78% 1.2 26.3 67% 0.7 30.0 62% 2.0 22.3 67% 1.2 27.0 56% 0.2 18.4 75% 0.8 29.2 78% 1.1 21.5 89% 3.4 11.8 78% 1.6 23.9 89% 3.6 36.1 56% 1.2 35.9 78% 2.1 28.0 67% 0.7 38.7 67% 0.9 18.0 100% 5.2 28.7 67% 1.6 28.4
Informed Stats 89% 3.1 27.1 89% 2.3 33.6 78% 0.4 24.2 56% 0.1 33.1 75% 2.4 27.1 67% 1.4 23.4 67% -0.2 21.1 75% -0.5 29.0 67% 0.9 20.2 89% 3.3 14.8 78% 1.1 25.9 89% 3.6 37.9 56% 1.7 39.0 78% 0.0 32.4 56% 0.0 39.3 67% 0.9 21.0 100% 7.2 23.8 78% 2.5 25.7
Aggregate 89% 2.2 24.6 89% 2.1 22.8 78% 1.0 26.8 78% 0.9 29.6 75% 2.1 21.7 67% 1.3 26.4 44% -0.4 20.1 75% 0.3 31.4 67% 0.9 20.9 89% 3.2 12.5 78% 1.2 26.1 89% 3.2 34.4 56% 1.2 37.0 78% 1.7 29.1 67% 0.8 38.7 56% 0.2 20.2 100% 5.4 27.4 78% 1.6 26.6
s10 89% 2.2 24.8 89% 2.2 21.9 78% 1.1 27.1 78% 1.2 28.5 62% 1.9 22.9 67% 1.2 27.1 44% -0.4 19.3 75% 0.5 31.1 78% 0.6 22.4 89% 3.3 12.4 67% 1.0 26.7 89% 3.1 34.6 56% 1.2 37.1 78% 1.9 28.8 67% 0.7 39.1 67% 0.4 19.8 100% 5.3 27.7 78% 1.4 27.0
Drop Kick Data 89% 2.7 25.1 89% 2.8 21.9 67% 1.2 24.6 78% 1.2 28.6 75% 2.5 22.8 67% 0.6 27.5 44% -0.6 19.6 75% 0.5 29.6 67% 1.0 21.1 89% 3.9 10.7 78% 1.8 25.1 89% 3.3 34.6 56% 1.5 37.2 78% 1.6 29.3 67% 0.8 38.1 56% 1.0 18.8 100% 6.0 24.3 67% 1.8 24.5
What Snoo Thinks 89% 1.5 25.4 89% 1.6 23.2 78% 1.5 25.9 67% 0.7 31.0 62% 2.3 22.6 67% 1.6 26.0 44% -0.1 17.9 88% 0.3 29.8 78% 1.7 20.7 67% 2.8 15.5 78% 2.1 24.4 89% 3.7 35.1 56% 0.8 37.2 78% 1.4 32.0 78% 1.3 37.9 56% -0.3 21.2 100% 5.7 29.0 67% 1.6 28.3
AFLalytics 89% 2.6 24.4 89% 1.5 22.9 78% 1.2 26.5 78% 1.1 29.5 75% 2.1 19.6 67% 1.7 25.3 44% -0.6 19.8 75% 0.3 32.1 67% 0.8 20.0 78% 2.8 15.8 56% 1.3 26.4 89% 3.1 32.4 67% 1.7 35.6 78% 1.8 29.2 67% 1.0 38.2 67% 0.1 20.3 100% 5.2 27.5 67% 1.9 24.2
The Wooden Finger 89% 2.1 26.2 89% 2.2 28.1 78% 0.6 28.9 67% 0.7 29.7 75% 2.2 23.2 67% 1.8 23.6 56% -0.9 21.0 62% -0.6 32.5 67% 1.4 22.2 78% 4.0 18.4 78% 1.2 27.9 89% 3.4 37.6 56% 0.7 39.6 78% 1.5 29.0 78% 1.0 37.3 44% 0.0 21.0 100% 6.0 30.6 56% 0.8 32.6
footycharts 78% 2.2 26.6 89% 1.5 24.5 78% 1.6 25.7 67% 0.5 30.7 75% 2.0 20.7 67% 1.6 25.7 44% -0.6 20.6 75% 0.0 34.1 56% 0.7 22.9 89% 3.5 12.6 67% 1.1 26.1 89% 3.4 35.3 67% 2.0 35.5 78% 2.0 29.9 56% 0.4 40.8 56% -0.2 21.3 100% 4.6 31.2 78% 1.6 26.3
Punters 89% 2.6 23.7 89% 2.4 24.0 78% -0.0 27.6 67% 1.0 31.3 62% 2.3 22.2 67% 0.8 26.7 33% -1.4 22.9 88% -0.2 31.7 56% 0.7 20.5 78% 3.2 13.6 67% 1.0 28.1 89% 2.8 35.9 56% 1.3 37.3 78% 0.2 30.3 67% 0.7 37.6 56% -0.0 20.9 100% 5.8 26.4 89% 2.1 24.1
Stattraction 78% 1.4 28.5 89% 1.7 21.6 78% 1.3 26.6 44% -0.1 33.9 75% 2.0 25.4 67% 1.2 27.2 33% -1.0 22.5 75% -0.5 33.6 89% 1.7 21.0 78% 3.1 14.1 78% 1.5 25.0 89% 3.3 35.1 56% 0.8 38.7 78% 1.6 27.8 67% 0.4 40.8 67% 0.0 19.9 100% 5.3 27.9 67% 1.2 28.3
Cheap Stats 78% 1.7 23.8 89% 2.2 21.3 78% 0.4 25.9 67% 1.1 28.8 75% 1.6 23.4 56% 0.7 27.7 44% -1.1 22.7 75% -0.7 31.2 56% 0.4 23.6 89% 2.8 12.1 78% 1.4 24.9 89% 2.3 34.0 56% 0.7 38.4 78% 0.2 30.1 67% 0.9 36.7 56% -0.7 23.2 100% 5.6 26.0 78% 1.5 23.0
Wheelo Ratings 78% 3.3 22.4 89% 2.7 23.6 67% 1.1 24.9 67% 1.5 29.3 62% 1.9 21.9 56% 0.7 27.5 33% -0.6 20.0 88% 0.1 30.4 67% 0.8 20.1 78% 3.5 12.4 67% 1.9 26.4 89% 3.6 32.5 56% 1.3 36.9 78% 1.0 29.7 67% 0.6 38.1 67% 1.1 18.6 100% 5.3 24.5 78% 2.1 24.9
ZaphBot 78% 1.8 22.6 89% 2.5 24.8 67% 0.8 30.0 67% 0.5 31.2 62% 0.6 28.8 78% 1.3 26.8 44% -0.1 19.7 88% 0.8 29.2 67% 0.6 24.4 67% 3.4 15.9 67% 1.6 26.3 89% 2.6 35.1 44% -0.5 40.6 78% 2.4 26.0 56% -0.2 40.6 56% -0.2 23.6 100% 5.5 24.4 89% 1.2 28.8
Squiggle 78% 2.9 23.7 89% 2.4 24.0 67% -0.5 31.7 67% 1.6 29.6 88% 2.3 20.8 56% 0.6 28.3 44% -1.3 22.5 75% -0.5 33.8 44% -0.4 25.9 89% 3.1 14.7 67% 1.0 28.0 89% 2.8 32.4 67% 1.8 34.8 78% -0.2 33.0 44% 0.5 38.7 56% -0.1 22.3 100% 4.7 29.9 89% 2.2 22.7
The Cruncher 78% 3.3 23.1 89% 2.3 23.9 78% 0.5 26.8 78% 1.1 30.4 62% 2.5 18.3 56% 1.1 26.4 44% -0.5 19.7 75% -0.0 29.5 56% 1.1 18.9 78% 3.0 15.5 56% 1.6 25.0 89% 3.1 31.4 56% 1.6 36.8 78% 0.5 31.3 67% 1.3 35.7 56% 1.1 18.2 100% 6.4 24.4 67% 2.0 24.0
Elo Predicts! 78% 1.6 26.7 89% 1.9 21.8 78% 0.8 30.4 56% 0.3 30.7 50% 1.3 27.1 78% 1.9 26.3 56% -0.2 20.2 62% 0.2 32.9 56% 0.8 22.9 78% 2.4 16.7 44% 0.0 30.6 89% 2.6 32.6 56% 0.8 37.9 78% 2.1 30.8 78% 0.6 39.9 33% -0.5 20.9 100% 5.1 28.3 78% 1.4 27.0
The Footycast 67% 0.8 31.1 78% 1.3 25.3 67% 0.6 28.1 67% 0.9 29.1 75% 1.9 21.8 67% -0.6 32.3 44% -1.2 22.9 62% -0.6 36.5 67% 0.2 26.2 78% 2.5 17.8 56% -1.2 32.9 89% 2.9 34.0 67% 0.4 39.7 78% 0.9 31.1 78% 1.3 35.2 56% -0.4 23.3 100% 5.5 33.0 44% -1.1 35.2
Graft 89% 2.0 27.2 78% 1.3 28.8 78% 0.8 26.6 44% 0.6 30.0 75% 1.5 23.5 78% 1.7 22.6 44% -0.7 22.8 62% -0.3 33.6 56% 0.9 19.0 78% 2.4 14.8 56% 0.0 29.4 89% 2.9 39.0 44% 1.0 40.4 78% 1.6 27.9 67% 0.4 39.6 33% -1.3 25.8 100% 5.5 27.0 67% 0.7 33.3
Massey Ratings 67% 1.5 25.7 89% 1.7 22.7 67% 1.2 27.4 67% 1.4 28.1 62% 1.7 23.4 56% 1.2 27.9 44% -0.3 19.9 62% 0.2 31.4 56% 0.5 22.9 78% 3.0 15.5 56% 0.7 29.1 89% 3.0 36.7 56% 1.1 37.8 78% 2.2 31.1 56% 0.5 40.8 56% -0.4 21.5 100% 6.0 27.5 56% 0.9 29.7
AFL Scorigami 67% 1.7 27.7 67% 1.4 21.8 78% 1.4 27.6 56% 0.9 30.1 75% 1.8 18.2 44% 0.9 29.8 33% -0.9 20.2 50% -0.8 34.6 67% 0.7 23.2 89% 3.7 15.6 78% 1.4 26.7 89% 2.2 34.7 56% 1.6 36.0 78% 1.5 31.9 67% 0.8 40.1 44% -0.4 21.9 100% 5.0 31.1 56% 0.6 28.8
Hyperion 78% 0.6 27.9 78% 2.1 25.8 67% 0.1 30.2 56% 0.0 31.8 88% 2.3 22.8 78% 1.8 25.2 44% -0.1 22.7 50% 0.7 31.6 56% 0.4 24.0 67% 2.0 16.0 67% 0.9 29.6 89% 3.3 38.0 44% -0.4 40.8 78% 2.5 28.2 67% 0.7 39.7 33% -0.7 21.7 100% 5.3 29.4 56% 0.8 30.3
PlusSixOne 78% 0.9 27.2 67% 0.6 20.8 44% 0.4 31.7 56% -0.0 33.8 75% 0.7 22.1 78% 0.9 29.3 44% 0.2 19.1 62% 0.3 33.0 56% 0.2 25.7 78% 1.4 23.0 56% 0.0 32.3 89% 2.0 34.1 78% 0.8 35.3 78% 1.3 35.2 44% 0.3 41.7 56% -0.6 23.1 100% 2.5 33.7 56% 0.9 27.9