LEADERBOARD

After 6 games of Round 11, 2025.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 4

72 15.17 26.56 75.8%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 4

72 14.59 26.96 75.8%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 4

71 15.72 26.63 74.7%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 4

71 14.71 27.46 74.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 4

70 15.82 26.72 73.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 4

70 15.18 27.28 73.7%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 4

70 14.12 26.93 73.7%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 4

69 14.54 26.62 72.6%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 4

69 14.08 26.94 72.6%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 3

69 13.13 28.08 72.6%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 4

68 16.80 26.27 71.6%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 4

68 12.41 27.30 71.6%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 4

67 15.53 26.38 70.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 3

67 14.02 27.42 70.5%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 4

67 12.32 27.85 70.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 4

67 12.04 28.68 70.5%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 5

67 11.34 28.19 70.5%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 3

67 10.58 27.05 70.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 4

66 14.11 26.43 69.5%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 4

66 13.49 27.66 69.5%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 3

66 11.98 28.02 69.5%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 4

64 6.43 29.90 67.4%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 3

62 10.94 28.09 65.3%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 3

62 10.13 28.73 65.3%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 3

61 10.40 28.35 64.2%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 5

61 9.47 29.21 64.2%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 4

60 6.60 29.54 63.2%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 1

59 11.11 28.07†5 65.6%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Glicko Ratings 90% 3.0 23.0 73% 0.2 27.6 64% -0.2 28.1 82% 2.6 25.5 100% 4.2 21.8 64% 0.4 30.3 55% -0.2 23.4 89% 1.0 26.5 55% -0.4 24.7 82% 2.2 17.2 70% 0.1 26.6 91% 4.0 30.6 73% 2.4 37.3 82% 2.0 25.9 60% 0.3 37.6 70% 1.3 17.3 90% 4.7 27.4 82% 2.8 26.8
Matter of Stats 90% 2.4 25.5 73% -0.3 28.6 82% 1.5 24.2 73% 1.9 26.2 90% 3.4 24.7 64% 1.2 27.9 64% 0.2 22.0 78% 0.2 28.2 64% -0.0 24.3 82% 2.7 15.5 70% -0.1 26.8 91% 4.3 29.7 73% 2.5 39.7 82% 1.8 25.2 60% -0.0 39.6 60% 0.4 18.6 90% 4.7 30.5 82% 2.4 28.9
Winnable 90% 3.9 19.5 73% -0.1 27.4 82% 0.1 26.9 73% 2.0 28.4 80% 4.5 24.4 64% 0.2 29.2 55% -0.7 25.7 67% 0.2 30.6 64% -0.1 26.1 73% 3.2 17.2 70% -0.4 27.4 100% 4.3 30.9 64% 2.3 36.2 82% 2.5 21.3 60% 0.6 36.6 70% 0.4 18.6 90% 5.2 28.2 91% 3.0 25.2
AFL Lab 100% 2.7 21.9 73% -0.3 28.4 64% 1.4 25.1 73% 1.7 27.7 80% 3.0 26.8 82% 1.3 28.5 64% 0.5 22.5 78% 1.6 27.0 55% -1.0 28.0 82% 2.9 14.6 70% -0.2 27.5 82% 3.0 34.7 73% 2.1 39.1 73% 2.7 23.8 50% -0.3 40.3 80% 1.7 15.7 90% 3.7 33.1 82% 2.8 29.4
Don't Blame the Data 90% 2.1 23.2 73% 0.6 28.0 73% 1.1 25.6 73% 1.7 26.5 70% 3.2 24.1 64% 1.1 29.6 64% 0.5 22.3 78% 0.9 26.6 64% 0.3 25.4 82% 3.2 14.1 70% 0.2 26.2 91% 4.3 31.1 64% 1.7 39.0 82% 2.7 23.1 60% 0.1 39.5 70% 1.1 16.9 90% 4.6 30.4 73% 2.4 29.6
Live Ladders 90% 2.5 24.2 73% -0.2 24.9 73% 1.5 26.0 73% 2.9 24.5 90% 2.7 26.8 64% 1.4 29.2 64% 0.5 22.3 78% 0.8 28.3 45% -0.3 27.9 73% 2.8 17.4 60% -0.5 29.2 91% 4.1 29.4 73% 2.3 38.5 82% 2.6 23.7 60% -0.2 41.1 70% 1.1 17.0 90% 4.3 30.9 82% 2.1 30.5
Aggregate 90% 2.6 22.6 73% 0.1 26.8 73% 1.0 25.9 82% 2.0 26.0 80% 3.2 24.3 64% 1.0 29.2 55% -0.1 23.6 78% 0.3 28.8 55% -0.1 25.2 82% 2.6 15.3 70% -0.2 27.6 91% 4.0 29.6 64% 2.0 39.2 82% 2.4 24.2 60% 0.0 39.7 60% 0.5 18.9 90% 4.6 29.5 82% 2.3 28.8
AFLalytics 90% 3.0 22.5 73% -0.7 27.4 73% 1.0 26.0 82% 2.1 26.7 80% 3.3 22.4 64% 1.2 28.3 55% -0.1 22.9 78% 0.5 28.7 55% -0.7 25.3 73% 2.0 18.1 50% 0.1 27.8 91% 3.9 28.9 73% 2.5 37.7 82% 2.6 24.3 60% 0.5 38.5 70% 0.4 18.9 90% 4.7 28.9 73% 2.8 26.2
s10 90% 2.6 22.6 73% 0.3 25.8 73% 1.1 25.9 82% 2.2 25.1 70% 3.0 25.3 64% 0.9 29.8 55% 0.0 22.5 67% 0.5 28.7 64% -0.4 26.2 73% 2.7 15.3 60% -0.4 28.1 91% 3.8 29.8 64% 1.9 39.4 82% 2.5 23.8 60% -0.1 40.0 70% 0.7 18.5 90% 4.6 29.7 82% 2.2 28.8
Informed Stats 90% 3.3 24.6 73% -0.2 36.5 73% 0.5 23.3 64% 1.0 28.6 80% 3.4 29.1 64% 1.5 25.6 64% -0.2 24.6 78% -0.5 26.7 55% 0.1 24.4 82% 2.5 17.8 70% -0.5 27.8 91% 4.3 32.5 64% 2.8 38.8 82% 0.4 27.7 50% -1.7 41.6 70% 1.4 19.0 90% 5.4 27.6 73% 2.7 29.1
Drop Kick Data 90% 3.1 22.9 73% 0.6 26.5 64% 1.2 24.0 82% 2.2 25.1 80% 3.7 25.0 64% 0.4 29.9 55% 0.1 22.0 67% 0.4 27.7 55% 0.1 25.1 73% 3.0 14.4 70% 0.3 27.0 91% 4.3 30.5 64% 2.4 38.9 82% 2.5 24.9 60% 0.0 39.0 60% 1.2 17.8 90% 5.3 26.5 73% 2.7 26.3
Punters 90% 3.0 21.5 73% 0.0 27.8 73% -0.1 26.7 73% 2.1 27.3 70% 3.6 24.4 64% 0.5 29.4 45% -1.1 26.0 89% 0.1 28.4 45% -0.5 25.0 73% 2.9 15.5 60% -0.8 29.8 91% 3.7 31.6 64% 2.1 39.3 82% 1.1 25.5 60% 0.0 38.5 60% 0.2 19.7 90% 5.1 28.4 91% 2.9 26.7
Wheelo Ratings 80% 3.5 20.5 73% 0.5 27.6 64% 0.8 24.8 73% 2.4 26.2 70% 3.3 24.1 55% 0.4 30.2 45% -0.3 23.5 89% 0.3 27.3 55% -0.4 24.8 73% 2.9 15.1 60% 0.5 27.8 91% 4.4 28.9 64% 2.1 39.2 82% 1.9 25.1 60% 0.0 38.6 70% 1.3 17.6 90% 4.6 26.4 82% 2.8 27.1
What Snoo Thinks 90% 2.0 23.7 73% -0.7 27.3 73% 1.2 25.6 73% 2.0 26.8 70% 3.2 26.2 64% 1.4 28.6 45% 0.2 22.0 89% 0.5 26.7 64% 0.5 25.0 64% 2.4 17.1 70% 0.3 26.4 82% 4.2 30.5 64% 1.7 39.1 73% 1.5 28.3 70% 0.5 38.6 60% -0.1 20.1 90% 4.9 30.6 64% 2.2 31.0
Squiggle 80% 3.4 22.3 73% 0.9 27.0 64% -0.8 30.2 73% 2.7 26.8 90% 3.5 23.7 55% 0.6 30.0 55% -0.8 24.9 78% -0.4 30.5 36% -1.6 29.7 82% 2.7 16.6 60% 0.1 28.6 91% 3.8 29.3 73% 2.8 36.1 82% 0.9 28.5 40% -0.3 39.6 60% 0.3 20.4 90% 3.9 31.7 91% 2.9 25.7
The Wooden Finger 90% 2.5 24.2 73% -0.2 32.3 73% 0.4 27.8 73% 2.0 25.1 80% 3.3 24.8 64% 1.2 27.3 64% -0.4 23.7 56% -1.5 32.0 55% 0.1 26.8 64% 2.4 22.5 70% -0.5 29.9 91% 4.5 31.1 64% 1.6 40.4 82% 2.0 24.7 70% -0.1 38.9 50% 0.1 20.1 90% 4.9 32.8 64% 1.6 32.4
ZaphBot 80% 1.9 20.9 73% 0.2 28.9 73% 1.5 28.2 73% 1.0 29.0 70% 1.8 28.4 73% 0.9 30.2 55% 0.3 22.9 78% 0.4 28.1 64% -0.1 27.6 55% 2.8 18.5 60% -0.5 29.1 91% 3.1 31.8 55% -0.0 42.7 82% 3.1 21.5 50% -0.9 41.4 60% 0.4 22.5 90% 4.8 26.9 91% 2.2 28.8
Cheap Stats 80% 2.0 22.1 73% 0.7 25.8 73% 0.4 24.8 73% 2.1 25.3 80% 2.6 25.6 55% 0.5 30.2 45% -0.9 25.8 78% -0.6 28.1 45% -0.2 26.8 82% 2.5 14.5 70% 0.2 26.9 91% 3.4 30.0 64% 1.4 39.8 82% 1.1 26.0 60% -0.1 38.4 60% -0.6 22.1 90% 4.6 28.8 73% 1.9 26.3
The Cruncher 80% 3.4 21.5 73% -0.5 28.3 73% 0.4 26.1 82% 1.8 27.9 70% 3.8 21.3 55% 0.2 30.3 55% 0.2 22.5 78% 0.1 26.9 45% -0.5 23.9 73% 2.0 18.2 50% -0.1 26.6 91% 3.9 28.5 64% 2.5 38.8 82% 1.5 26.2 60% 0.2 37.1 60% 1.2 17.5 90% 5.2 27.0 73% 2.9 26.5
footycharts 80% 2.8 25.3 73% -0.7 28.6 73% 1.1 25.8 73% 1.9 26.4 80% 3.0 23.9 64% 1.5 27.5 45% -0.5 24.7 67% 0.0 31.3 45% -0.7 27.6 73% 3.0 15.4 60% -0.6 28.1 91% 4.5 29.5 64% 2.7 37.7 82% 2.6 26.0 50% -0.1 41.1 60% 0.1 19.8 90% 4.0 32.4 82% 2.3 28.1
Stattraction 80% 1.7 26.0 73% 0.1 25.1 73% 1.1 26.2 55% 1.1 28.7 80% 3.1 27.0 64% 1.3 29.1 36% -1.1 27.0 67% -0.7 31.4 73% 0.9 25.0 64% 2.6 16.4 70% 0.2 26.6 91% 4.3 29.7 64% 1.4 41.0 82% 2.3 23.6 60% -0.7 42.1 70% 0.3 18.6 90% 4.2 30.6 64% 1.5 31.1
The Footycast 70% 1.2 28.8 64% -0.4 29.2 64% 0.5 27.2 73% 1.9 26.1 80% 2.8 24.7 64% -0.8 34.1 55% -0.9 25.7 56% -0.7 33.7 55% -0.8 29.6 64% 1.8 20.2 50% -2.4 33.8 91% 3.5 29.6 73% 1.0 41.3 82% 1.3 26.4 70% 0.6 36.5 60% -0.2 22.0 90% 4.8 34.6 55% -0.4 35.4
Elo Predicts! 80% 2.0 24.0 73% 0.2 23.4 73% 0.9 28.9 64% 1.6 25.7 60% 2.2 29.5 73% 1.6 29.2 55% -0.1 23.9 56% -0.1 31.1 45% -0.1 25.2 64% 1.9 18.3 40% -1.6 30.2 82% 3.3 27.7 64% 1.3 40.8 73% 2.5 26.0 70% -0.1 41.5 40% -0.2 20.3 90% 4.4 31.1 73% 1.9 30.2
Graft 90% 2.3 25.4 64% -0.3 32.5 73% 0.8 25.5 55% 1.7 25.5 80% 2.5 24.6 73% 1.5 26.1 45% -0.7 27.0 56% -0.3 31.0 45% -0.2 24.6 64% 1.9 17.6 50% -1.2 31.3 91% 3.9 32.8 55% 1.6 41.7 82% 2.3 23.7 60% -0.3 40.9 40% -1.0 23.4 90% 4.8 29.6 64% 1.1 34.4
AFL Scorigami 70% 2.1 25.1 55% -0.5 24.8 73% 1.1 27.0 64% 1.7 27.8 80% 2.8 23.0 45% 0.4 32.3 36% -0.7 24.1 44% -1.0 32.2 55% -0.7 26.8 73% 2.6 18.3 70% 0.3 26.9 91% 2.9 31.6 64% 2.3 39.0 82% 2.2 27.2 60% 0.0 40.2 50% -0.3 21.1 90% 4.3 32.1 55% 1.2 31.4
Hyperion 80% 1.2 26.1 64% 0.1 29.0 73% 0.5 27.5 64% 1.3 27.5 90% 3.3 26.4 73% 1.1 29.5 45% -0.0 26.8 44% 0.6 29.1 55% -0.5 27.2 55% 1.8 17.2 60% -1.1 31.7 82% 3.6 32.9 45% -0.3 44.4 73% 2.7 24.5 60% -0.5 41.1 40% -0.4 20.0 90% 4.1 31.9 64% 1.3 33.1
PlusSixOne 80% 1.2 24.5 55% -0.2 23.4 45% 0.4 29.9 64% 0.6 30.7 80% 1.3 27.0 73% 1.0 31.0 45% 0.2 23.8 56% 0.3 30.2 45% -0.2 27.9 64% 1.1 23.3 50% -0.6 32.0 82% 2.2 31.5 73% 1.1 39.4 73% 1.4 30.6 40% 0.2 40.7 60% -0.4 21.6 90% 2.4 33.5 64% 1.3 31.0
Massey Ratings 70% 1.8 23.3 80% 0.1 24.5 70% 1.4 25.9 70% 1.7 25.4 67% 2.4 27.6 50% 0.3 30.2 55% 0.3 22.9 67% 0.2 28.7 50% -0.3 25.7 80% 3.0 14.7 50% -0.9 30.2 80% 2.8 33.8 60% 1.5 40.4 70% 2.1 28.7 50% -0.6 42.1 60% -0.2 20.6 90% 4.8 30.1 64% 1.8 30.7