LEADERBOARD

After 6 games of Round 3, 2025.

Tips
Bits
MAE
Correct
ZaphBot

1 8 6 5

20 6.31 31.92 80.0%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 5

20 5.22 30.09 80.0%
s10

2 8 5 5

20 4.29 31.18 80.0%
Aggregate

2 8 5 5

20 4.26 31.14 80.0%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 6

20 4.25 32.28 80.0%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 5

20 3.92 35.00 80.0%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 4

19 5.23 30.32 76.0%
Winnable

1 8 6 4

19 4.73 30.63 76.0%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 5

19 4.37 30.58 76.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 5

19 4.36 35.84 76.0%
Stattraction

2 7 4 6

19 3.07 33.24 76.0%
Punters

1 8 5 5

19 3.07 31.82 76.0%
Squiggle

1 7 5 6

19 2.54 32.29 76.0%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 5

19 2.44 30.68 76.0%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 4

18 5.42 30.59 72.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 4

18 5.19 29.41 72.0%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 4

18 4.80 30.36 72.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 5

18 4.67 31.95 72.0%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 6

18 3.78 32.40 72.0%
footycharts

2 7 3 6

18 3.54 33.24 72.0%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 4

18 3.49 33.46 72.0%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 4

18 3.23 32.68 72.0%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 5

17 4.23 33.00 68.0%
The Footycast

1 7 5 4

17 2.97 33.76 68.0%
Hyperion

1 7 5 4

17 2.95 34.00 68.0%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 4

15 2.05 34.88 60.0%
Graft

1 5 5 4

15 1.52 35.68 60.0%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 4

13 1.43 33.47 52.0%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team
Adelaide
Adelaide
Adelaide
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions
Carlton
Carlton
Carlton
Collingwood
Collingwood
Collingwood
Essendon
Essendon
Essendon
Fremantle
Fremantle
Fremantle
Geelong
Geelong
Geelong
Gold Coast
Gold Coast
Gold Coast
Greater Western Sydney
Greater Western Sydney
Greater Western Sydney
Hawthorn
Hawthorn
Hawthorn
Melbourne
Melbourne
Melbourne
North Melbourne
North Melbourne
North Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Richmond
Richmond
St Kilda
St Kilda
St Kilda
Sydney
Sydney
Sydney
West Coast
West Coast
West Coast
Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs
ZaphBot 100% 0.9 43.0 100% 1.6 20.0 67% -0.2 15.3 100% 0.4 45.0 67% 0.8 33.0 100% 0.7 32.0 67% -0.1 35.3 100% 0.7 57.0 100% 0.9 21.3 75% 1.7 14.5 67% 0.4 41.7 50% 0.7 41.5 67% 0.5 48.0 67% 0.7 39.3 67% 0.1 42.3 67% 0.5 12.0 100% 1.4 50.0 100% 0.9 10.3
Glicko Ratings 100% 0.9 43.7 100% 1.6 15.7 33% -1.9 27.1 100% 1.0 42.9 100% 1.0 20.7 50% 0.5 30.2 67% 0.4 27.2 100% 0.8 58.3 100% 0.5 17.3 100% 1.2 8.4 67% 0.2 37.5 50% 0.5 38.7 100% 1.1 42.6 67% -0.3 48.6 67% 0.6 39.7 67% 0.5 7.9 100% 1.4 53.4 67% 0.5 13.5
s10 100% 0.6 50.3 100% 1.4 13.9 67% -0.6 18.0 100% 0.4 45.6 67% 0.7 24.8 50% 0.4 32.4 67% 0.1 28.2 100% 0.4 64.4 100% 0.6 16.4 100% 1.4 6.6 67% -0.5 44.1 50% 0.1 47.4 67% 0.7 47.2 67% 0.3 45.5 67% 0.4 42.4 67% 0.3 8.6 100% 1.2 55.0 100% 0.8 10.1
Aggregate 100% 0.6 51.1 100% 1.4 14.3 67% -0.7 17.9 100% 0.4 45.4 67% 0.7 23.8 50% 0.3 33.8 67% 0.2 28.8 100% 0.5 63.5 100% 0.6 15.9 100% 1.4 6.3 67% -0.4 43.1 50% 0.1 47.3 67% 0.8 46.6 67% 0.1 46.3 67% 0.4 42.6 67% 0.1 8.9 100% 1.3 55.7 100% 0.8 9.6
Matter of Stats 100% 0.4 54.9 100% 1.3 17.4 67% -0.3 14.2 67% 0.4 45.3 100% 0.6 25.2 50% 0.3 34.3 67% 0.2 27.2 100% 0.6 61.1 100% 0.6 16.4 100% 1.1 9.7 67% -0.4 42.6 50% -0.0 53.3 100% 0.8 47.9 67% 0.3 47.3 67% 0.5 42.3 67% -0.0 9.2 100% 1.2 63.5 67% 0.9 12.0
Informed Stats 100% 0.9 42.5 100% 2.0 35.3 67% -1.6 18.7 67% 0.1 48.3 67% 0.7 26.3 100% 0.5 32.5 67% -0.2 37.3 100% 1.2 46.5 67% -0.0 26.0 100% 1.4 9.5 67% -0.5 44.3 50% -0.2 66.5 67% 0.6 47.0 67% -0.8 47.0 67% -0.1 45.0 100% 0.8 14.3 100% 1.7 58.5 100% 1.3 16.7
Drop Kick Data 100% 0.7 49.9 100% 1.6 14.3 33% -0.9 17.6 100% 0.5 44.6 67% 0.8 22.4 50% 0.1 37.0 67% 0.2 27.8 100% 0.7 59.9 100% 0.9 19.8 100% 2.0 2.2 67% -0.1 43.7 50% 0.0 44.0 67% 0.8 46.5 67% -0.0 46.3 67% 0.5 41.6 67% 0.5 9.0 100% 1.3 50.7 67% 0.8 7.9
Winnable 100% 1.3 39.1 100% 1.7 15.6 67% -1.8 22.5 67% 0.3 49.9 67% 1.2 21.2 50% -0.4 44.5 67% 0.4 33.1 50% 0.1 70.7 67% 0.2 27.4 100% 2.2 9.9 67% 0.1 38.9 100% 0.6 29.1 67% 1.3 37.5 67% -0.5 41.2 67% 1.1 34.2 67% -0.1 8.5 100% 1.3 56.5 100% 0.8 7.3
AFLalytics 100% 0.7 48.2 100% 1.2 14.2 33% -0.9 20.5 100% 0.9 40.9 100% 0.8 22.9 50% 0.3 32.4 67% 0.5 24.6 100% 0.3 67.1 67% 0.4 18.3 100% 0.9 11.2 33% -0.3 42.7 50% 0.3 37.6 100% 1.1 44.2 67% 0.3 46.4 67% 0.7 39.5 67% -0.2 11.3 100% 1.1 57.7 67% 0.7 7.2
The Wooden Finger 100% 0.5 53.0 100% 1.7 23.3 67% -0.8 24.0 67% 0.0 47.7 67% 0.7 31.0 50% 0.3 34.0 67% -0.1 30.3 100% 0.6 62.0 100% 1.3 21.7 100% 2.6 13.2 67% -0.7 49.7 50% -0.3 65.0 67% 0.4 47.7 67% -0.5 45.7 67% -0.0 44.3 67% 0.5 7.0 100% 1.4 65.5 67% 1.0 21.0
Stattraction 50% -0.0 65.1 100% 1.2 7.7 67% -0.2 12.7 33% -0.2 52.4 67% 0.4 30.0 100% 0.1 39.0 67% -0.2 31.9 100% 0.5 63.5 100% 0.8 18.5 100% 1.3 10.9 67% -0.5 44.4 50% -0.0 48.5 67% 0.6 50.0 67% 0.3 47.0 67% -0.1 49.6 100% 0.1 7.5 100% 1.2 47.6 67% 0.8 12.0
Punters 100% 1.0 44.4 100% 1.5 15.9 67% -2.1 24.0 67% 0.6 48.9 67% 0.8 22.8 50% 0.2 35.6 67% -0.1 31.4 100% 0.4 65.8 67% 0.4 20.8 100% 1.4 6.5 67% -0.2 44.5 50% -0.1 39.8 67% 0.9 43.6 67% -1.1 48.8 67% 0.4 41.2 67% -0.1 9.5 100% 1.2 60.0 100% 1.0 6.6
Squiggle 100% 0.8 44.4 100% 1.3 17.5 67% -2.0 23.3 67% 0.5 48.0 100% 1.0 23.4 50% -0.2 41.9 67% -0.3 33.1 100% 0.4 64.7 33% -0.4 26.3 100% 1.4 9.2 33% -0.6 45.0 50% -0.1 39.5 100% 1.1 41.8 67% -1.2 50.8 67% 0.8 35.3 67% 0.2 11.7 100% 1.0 57.6 100% 1.1 4.3
Cheap Stats 100% 0.7 46.5 100% 1.2 11.7 67% -1.2 19.0 67% 0.4 46.3 67% 0.4 25.7 50% 0.1 38.0 67% -0.2 30.0 100% 0.6 61.5 67% 0.3 19.7 100% 1.1 7.2 67% -0.2 42.7 50% -0.3 40.0 67% 0.6 44.7 67% -0.6 47.0 67% 0.2 41.0 67% -0.1 12.3 100% 1.2 53.0 100% 0.9 2.3
Wheelo Ratings 100% 1.1 40.6 100% 1.7 16.8 33% -1.5 22.2 67% 0.6 49.1 67% 1.0 24.1 50% 0.4 30.5 67% 0.3 26.6 100% 0.5 65.3 67% 0.4 20.7 100% 2.0 4.3 67% 0.2 39.8 50% 0.4 36.9 67% 0.8 45.1 67% -0.3 47.2 67% 0.5 40.4 67% 0.7 6.4 100% 1.1 59.1 67% 0.9 10.7
The Cruncher 100% 1.4 36.6 100% 1.7 14.8 33% -1.9 22.9 100% 1.0 43.6 67% 1.2 18.6 50% 0.6 29.8 67% 0.3 27.5 100% 0.9 58.9 67% 0.3 19.0 100% 1.3 8.8 33% -0.1 40.5 50% 0.1 35.1 67% 0.9 47.3 67% -0.7 50.4 67% 0.7 38.5 67% 0.5 6.8 100% 1.5 52.4 67% 0.8 6.6
AFL Scorigami 100% 0.6 53.2 67% 1.1 10.9 67% -0.3 12.5 67% 0.3 46.5 67% 0.7 24.2 50% 0.3 36.2 33% -0.0 30.5 100% 0.6 64.1 100% 0.4 19.3 100% 2.0 4.9 67% -0.3 40.3 50% 0.2 39.0 67% 0.8 48.3 67% 0.1 48.5 67% 0.4 45.1 67% 0.5 6.0 100% 1.3 48.1 67% 0.8 6.8
Don't Blame the Data 50% 0.2 57.8 100% 1.5 17.1 67% -0.6 17.7 67% 0.2 47.5 33% 0.4 25.8 50% 0.4 32.8 67% 0.2 29.6 100% 0.7 58.1 100% 0.6 17.3 100% 1.3 7.3 67% -0.0 39.8 50% 0.4 53.0 67% 0.8 45.5 67% 0.4 42.4 67% 0.3 43.4 67% 0.3 7.9 100% 1.3 56.6 67% 0.8 16.7
Live Ladders 50% -0.0 62.0 100% 1.1 10.7 67% -0.2 13.3 67% 0.3 46.0 67% 0.4 28.3 50% 0.2 35.5 67% 0.1 29.0 100% 0.4 66.5 67% 0.7 20.3 100% 1.7 9.8 33% -0.9 47.7 50% -0.1 51.0 100% 0.9 47.0 67% 0.6 43.3 67% 0.3 44.7 67% 0.1 8.0 100% 1.2 50.5 67% 0.8 11.7
footycharts 50% 0.1 60.0 100% 1.5 15.5 67% -0.1 13.0 67% 0.1 47.6 67% 0.3 27.6 50% -0.1 38.2 67% 0.6 27.0 100% 0.1 69.4 67% 0.4 19.6 100% 1.3 8.3 33% -0.6 45.1 50% 0.2 49.7 100% 0.8 45.6 67% 0.6 45.4 67% 0.4 44.7 67% -0.4 12.8 100% 0.9 61.7 67% 0.8 12.9
Massey Ratings 100% 0.5 54.5 100% 1.1 15.5 67% -0.4 16.8 67% 0.3 46.5 67% 0.7 23.5 100% 0.5 32.5 67% -0.1 30.8 50% 0.4 65.0 100% 0.7 18.8 75% 0.8 11.8 33% -0.6 47.2 50% 0.0 51.0 67% 0.5 53.2 67% 0.4 49.2 67% 0.2 46.8 67% -0.0 8.8 100% 1.3 55.0 67% 0.7 12.8
AFL Lab 100% 0.4 51.8 100% 1.4 19.8 67% 0.1 11.1 67% -0.2 52.7 67% 0.3 26.6 50% 0.5 22.9 67% 0.5 22.9 50% 0.1 70.4 100% 0.4 18.1 100% 1.2 5.5 33% -1.1 50.8 50% -0.4 62.2 67% 0.5 46.9 67% 0.8 39.7 67% 0.4 42.5 67% 0.3 9.1 100% 0.9 61.9 67% 0.6 17.8
What Snoo Thinks 50% 0.1 60.7 100% 1.2 14.4 67% -0.5 16.1 67% 0.2 46.8 33% 0.4 28.6 50% 0.4 32.8 67% 0.2 27.2 100% 0.7 60.6 100% 1.0 17.1 75% 1.2 10.5 67% 0.1 41.9 50% 0.3 50.6 67% 0.7 50.3 67% 0.1 49.2 67% 0.3 45.5 33% -0.1 9.7 100% 1.3 57.2 67% 0.8 14.4
The Footycast 100% 0.7 48.0 67% 1.1 20.0 33% -1.2 24.8 67% 0.0 48.0 100% 0.7 22.7 100% 0.6 37.0 67% -0.3 33.4 50% 0.4 63.5 100% 0.8 18.0 75% 1.0 13.4 33% -0.8 47.8 50% 0.1 48.1 100% 0.9 44.6 67% 0.3 44.1 67% 0.3 40.6 33% -0.1 15.0 100% 1.5 55.0 33% 0.0 18.0
Hyperion 100% 0.1 60.5 67% 1.4 20.0 67% -0.7 15.7 67% 0.2 46.3 67% 0.2 28.7 100% 0.6 30.5 67% 0.8 30.3 50% 0.2 69.0 100% 0.9 16.3 75% 0.6 11.5 33% -0.8 50.7 50% -0.2 56.0 67% 0.4 48.7 67% 0.3 42.0 67% 0.5 43.0 33% -0.7 14.7 100% 1.2 57.5 67% 0.8 12.7
Elo Predicts! 50% 0.1 58.5 100% 1.5 15.7 67% -0.5 20.7 67% 0.4 43.0 33% 0.2 34.3 50% 0.4 36.0 67% 0.3 33.3 50% 0.1 67.5 67% 0.4 16.3 75% 0.5 13.0 0% -1.4 50.7 50% -0.4 52.0 67% 0.6 51.3 67% 0.1 49.7 67% 0.1 47.3 33% -0.2 12.7 100% 1.1 55.0 67% 0.9 9.7
Graft 100% 0.5 50.5 67% 1.0 25.3 67% -0.8 22.0 33% 0.3 45.3 67% 0.3 27.7 100% 0.3 33.0 67% -0.1 33.0 50% 0.4 61.5 67% 0.5 13.7 75% 0.3 14.2 0% -1.4 55.7 50% -0.5 69.5 33% 0.6 45.3 67% -0.1 44.3 67% 0.3 42.3 33% -0.8 19.3 100% 1.4 60.5 67% 1.0 18.3
PlusSixOne 50% 0.1 60.4 67% 0.7 3.3 0% -0.5 18.8 67% 0.1 47.8 67% 0.2 30.0 50% 0.1 37.5 67% 0.5 25.3 50% -0.1 73.0 67% 0.0 21.6 50% 0.1 18.3 0% -0.6 46.4 50% 0.4 37.6 100% 0.6 50.8 67% 0.1 52.4 67% 0.4 45.4 0% -0.5 14.6 100% 0.7 42.7 33% 0.4 9.6