Introducing s10

There’s a new entry on tip pages named s10. This isn’t a model; instead, it’s the average of tips by the 10 top-performing models of the previous year, as measured by MAE.

The idea here is that in the future, we can allow more models to join the Squiggle platform without worrying so much about whether they’ll turn out to be any good. Because although they might affect the performance of Aggregate, they can’t throw out s10.

Aggregate is the average of all models, including Punters.

s10 is the average of the top 10 models by MAE from the year before. For example, s10 in 2020 was the average tip of 2019’s best-performing models.

* If a model qualifies for s10 but does not participate, it is omitted and not replaced.

YearPrevious Year’s Top 10 Models by MAE
2017
20182017:
1. Matter of Stats
2. The Arc
3. GRAFT Ratings
4. plusSixOne
5. FMI
6. Squiggle
7. Figuring Footy*
20192018:
1. Live Ladders
2. Matter of Stats (2 consecutive years)
3. Squiggle (2)
4. GRAFT Ratings (2)
5. Massey Ratings
6. plusSixOne (2)
7. The Arc
8. Swinburne
9. FMI (2)
10. Stattraction
Out: Figuring Footy
20202019:
1. Live Ladders (2)
2. plusSixOne (3)
3. AFLalytics
4. The Arc (2)
5. AFL Lab
6. GRAFT Ratings (3)
7. Matter of Stats (3)
8. Squiggle (3)
9. Swinburne (2)
10. AFL Gains*
Out: Massey Ratings, Stattraction, FMI
20212020:
1. AFLalytics (2)
2. Squiggle (4)
3. Live Ladders (3)
4. Matter of Stats (4)
5. AFL_GO*
6. plusSixOne (4)
7. Massey Ratings
8. GRAFT Ratings (4)
9. AFL Lab
10. Stattraction
Out: The Arc, Swinburne, AFL Gains
20222021:
1. GRAFT Ratings (5)
2. Cheap Stats
3. AFLalytics (3)
4. AFL Lab (2)
5. Matter of Stats (5)
6. Live Ladders (4)
7. Glicko Ratings
8. ZaphBot
9. Squiggle (5)
10. The Cruncher
Out: AFL_GO, plusSixOne, Massey Ratings, Stattraction
20232022:
1. Wheelo Ratings
2. Data by Josh
3. Matter of Stats (6)
4. AFLalytics (4)
5. The Footycast
6. Live Ladders (5)
7. Squiggle (6)
8. AFL Lab (3)
9. Cheap Stats (2)
10. Massey Ratings
Out: GRAFT Ratings, Glicko Ratings, ZaphBot, The Cruncher
20242023:
1. Glicko Ratings
2. Matter of Stats (7)
3. Wheelo Ratings (2)
4. AFLalytics (5)
5. Squiggle (7)
6. Data by Josh (2)
7. AFL Lab (4)
8. GRAFT Ratings
9. The Footycast (2)
10. Cheap Stats (3)
Out: Live Ladders, Massey Ratings

* Model qualified for year but did not participate.