There’s a new entry on tip pages named s10. This isn’t a model; instead, it’s the average of tips by the 10 top-performing models of the previous year, as measured by MAE.
The idea here is that in the future, we can allow more models to join the Squiggle platform without worrying so much about whether they’ll turn out to be any good. Because although they might affect the performance of Aggregate, they can’t throw out s10.
Aggregate is the average of all models, including Punters.
s10 is the average of the top 10 models by MAE from the year before. For example, s10 in 2020 was the average tip of 2019’s best-performing models.
* If a model qualifies for s10 but does not participate, it is omitted and not replaced.
| Year | Previous Year’s Top 10 Models by MAE |
| 2017 | – |
| 2018 | 2017: 1. Matter of Stats 2. The Arc 3. GRAFT Ratings 4. plusSixOne 5. FMI 6. Squiggle 7. Figuring Footy* |
| 2019 | 2018: 1. Live Ladders 2. Matter of Stats (2 consecutive years) 3. Squiggle (2) 4. GRAFT Ratings (2) 5. Massey Ratings 6. plusSixOne (2) 7. The Arc 8. Swinburne 9. FMI (2) 10. Stattraction Out: Figuring Footy |
| 2020 | 2019: 1. Live Ladders (2) 2. plusSixOne (3) 3. AFLalytics 4. The Arc (2) 5. AFL Lab 6. GRAFT Ratings (3) 7. Matter of Stats (3) 8. Squiggle (3) 9. Swinburne (2) 10. AFL Gains* Out: Massey Ratings, Stattraction, FMI |
| 2021 | 2020: 1. AFLalytics (2) 2. Squiggle (4) 3. Live Ladders (3) 4. Matter of Stats (4) 5. AFL_GO* 6. plusSixOne (4) 7. Massey Ratings 8. GRAFT Ratings (4) 9. AFL Lab 10. Stattraction Out: The Arc, Swinburne, AFL Gains |
| 2022 | 2021: 1. GRAFT Ratings (5) 2. Cheap Stats 3. AFLalytics (3) 4. AFL Lab (2) 5. Matter of Stats (5) 6. Live Ladders (4) 7. Glicko Ratings 8. ZaphBot 9. Squiggle (5) 10. The Cruncher Out: AFL_GO, plusSixOne, Massey Ratings, Stattraction |
| 2023 | 2022: 1. Wheelo Ratings 2. Data by Josh 3. Matter of Stats (6) 4. AFLalytics (4) 5. The Footycast 6. Live Ladders (5) 7. Squiggle (6) 8. AFL Lab (3) 9. Cheap Stats (2) 10. Massey Ratings Out: GRAFT Ratings, Glicko Ratings, ZaphBot, The Cruncher |
| 2024 | 2023: 1. Glicko Ratings 2. Matter of Stats (7) 3. Wheelo Ratings (2) 4. AFLalytics (5) 5. Squiggle (7) 6. Data by Josh (2) 7. AFL Lab (4) 8. GRAFT Ratings 9. The Footycast (2) 10. Cheap Stats (3) Out: Live Ladders, Massey Ratings |
| 2025 | 2024: 1. Live Ladders 2. Data by Josh (3) 3. Wheelo Ratings (3) 4. AFL Lab (5) 5. Squiggle (8) 6. ZaphBot 7. Massey Ratings 8. Elo Predicts 9. The Footycast 10. Drop Kick Data Out: Glicko Ratings, Matter of Stats, AFLalytics, GRAFT Ratings, Cheap Stats |
* Model qualified for year but did not participate.