LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Collingwood Brisbane Lions Adelaide Geelong Hawthorn Western Bulldogs Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Fremantle Sydney Port Adelaide Carlton Essendon Melbourne St Kilda North Melbourne Richmond West Coast
Live Ladders 139.0 4.6 4.4 5.9 6.4 6.4 5.9 6.1 6.7 7.2 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.8 7.6 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.5 5.9 4.9 4.4 7.4 6.7 7.4 6.3 7.7 7.4 7.4 6.8 7.4 7.9 7.4 3.2 8.7 9.0 9.2
Winnable 139.0 5.0 4.9 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.6 7.4 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.4 5.8 5.6 4.6 7.2 7.1 6.6 6.4 7.3 7.0 6.8 7.0 5.8 7.9 7.5 5.6 8.7 9.2 9.2
Squiggle 137.4 4.8 4.6 6.3 6.2 6.2 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.5 7.4 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.4 5.9 4.6 5.9 7.6 7.0 6.9 5.9 7.4 6.9 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.7 6.9 3.9 8.5 9.2 8.6
ZaphBot 134.3 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.7 1.0 8.5 2.0 7.8 6.1 7.4 5.8 7.1 7.7 5.0 6.9 7.9 7.8 8.1 4.0 8.7 9.4 9.6
Wheelo Ratings 134.0 4.3 4.1 5.5 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.2 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.4 7.3 7.8 8.1 8.2 8.3 4.2 4.5 5.9 7.3 6.9 6.8 6.1 7.3 7.0 7.2 6.6 6.2 7.6 7.2 3.7 8.7 8.6 8.9
Don't Blame the Data 131.5 4.8 4.8 4.8 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.5 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.9 7.8 8.2 8.2 8.5 4.8 7.2 3.2 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.1 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.8 7.3 6.9 7.6 5.0 8.7 9.1 8.9
Stattraction 130.2 4.2 3.9 6.0 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.5 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.8 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.5 4.0 6.4 4.6 7.0 6.9 6.9 5.7 7.5 7.2 6.8 6.7 7.0 7.7 7.7 3.8 9.0 9.1 9.4
Glicko Ratings 128.1 4.9 4.7 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.3 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.2 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.3 7.7 8.0 8.3 4.3 5.2 5.4 7.1 6.8 6.9 5.6 7.0 6.9 7.3 6.4 5.3 7.0 7.3 6.1 8.7 9.1 9.0
Graft 127.9 3.6 3.7 6.0 6.3 6.2 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.0 7.6 7.5 8.1 8.3 8.5 4.2 4.6 6.4 7.1 6.6 6.6 6.2 6.7 6.9 5.8 6.5 6.8 8.3 6.6 4.0 9.0 9.2 9.5
Matter of Stats 127.2 4.4 4.2 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.4 7.3 7.9 8.2 8.3 4.5 4.9 5.2 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.2 7.4 6.9 7.1 6.6 6.0 7.8 7.1 4.0 8.8 8.4 9.0
AFL Lab 126.1 4.3 3.9 5.3 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.6 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.4 4.8 6.8 3.9 7.5 7.2 7.3 6.8 7.3 6.4 6.9 6.3 6.9 7.1 6.8 2.1 8.5 7.8 9.0
The Footycast 125.0 4.0 3.8 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.3 6.0 6.7 6.7 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.6 7.6 8.1 8.2 4.2 5.3 6.2 7.0 6.6 7.1 6.5 6.2 6.5 5.8 6.9 6.6 7.9 6.9 2.9 8.6 8.3 9.1
What Snoo Thinks 122.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 4.8 4.1 3.9 7.4 7.0 6.0 5.9 6.6 7.1 6.6 6.4 4.8 8.4 7.2 4.1 8.5 8.3 9.4
Elo Predicts! 122.0 3.2 3.4 4.5 4.3 5.3 4.3 5.9 7.4 6.9 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.8 7.2 7.6 7.5 8.5 8.4 8.6 3.7 8.3 0.6 7.8 7.2 6.9 5.8 6.3 7.6 4.7 6.7 5.8 7.3 6.3 3.6 8.4 8.8 9.6
PlusSixOne 117.1 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.2 3.2 4.0 4.4 6.4 6.0 6.6 5.8 6.6 6.3 6.4 6.6 5.4 6.5 6.1 3.0 7.8 6.6 7.8
Informed Stats 101.8 6.0 5.3 6.1 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.7 7.3 7.9 8.3 8.2 6.7 5.8 3.7 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.3 8.0 6.8 6.4 5.7 7.2 8.2 8.2 2.9 8.7 8.6 10.0
Ladder 92.6 -1.4 -0.8 1.5 1.2 1.5 3.5 4.8 5.8 5.4 4.8 5.8 6.1 5.1 6.4 7.1 7.7 8.4 10.0 10.0 6.0 7.1 6.0 4.0 5.5 2.7 2.0 3.5 4.9 3.2 4.6 5.2 4.9 5.7 2.3 5.2 5.5 9.7
AFLalytics 9.1 3.9 5.2 -4.6 4.7 1.0 5.4 6.6 6.5 5.0 5.6 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.2 5.9 3.8 2.7 7.6 3.5 5.9

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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8
9
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 18th 13
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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8
9
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 18th 14
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 15
9.99997353 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 17
9.99976176 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 16
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 6
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 9
9.99950294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 10
9.99950000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 11
9.99941176 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 12
9.99887012 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 17
9.99870294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 7
9.99869718 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 9
9.99717059 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 15
9.99675624 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 16
9.99551000 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 14
9.99550000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 8
9.98933529 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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18
 1st 16
9.98898753 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 13
9.98751765 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 2
9.98384424 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 4
9.98365200 Informed Stats Collingwood
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 1st 17
9.98337941 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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 18th 5
9.98321765 Elo Predicts! Richmond
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 17th 16
9.98259412 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 16th 16
9.98208115 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 9

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-16.6 Graft Collingwood
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 1st 0
-14.9 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-14.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st -1
-13.4 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 3rd -1
-12.6 AFL Lab Collingwood
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 1st 0
-12.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.9 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.4 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.3 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.1 Graft Collingwood
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 1st -1
-10.8 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-10.5 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 3rd 0
-10.4 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st -1
-9.8 Live Ladders Collingwood
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 1st 0
-9.6 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 3rd 0
-9.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st -1
-8.7 Squiggle Collingwood
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 1st 0
-8.7 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 3rd -1
-8.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 2
-7.9 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 0
-7.9 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st -1
-7.8 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 3

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
34.9 The Footycast St Kilda
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 15th 4
32.9 Live Ladders St Kilda
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 15th 4
32.3 Graft St Kilda
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 15th 4
31.9 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
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 15th 4
31.2 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 8
31.1 AFL Lab St Kilda
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 15th 4
30.7 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 3
30.3 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th 4
29.8 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th 2
29.6 Live Ladders St Kilda
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 15th 3
29.4 What Snoo Thinks St Kilda
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 15th 5
29.3 Matter of Stats St Kilda
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 15th 4
29.2 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th -1
29.0 Wheelo Ratings St Kilda
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 15th 4
28.6 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 4
28.1 Stattraction St Kilda
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 15th 4
27.6 ZaphBot Sydney
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 10th -1
27.2 AFL Lab St Kilda
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 15th 3
27.1 Squiggle St Kilda
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 15th 4
26.6 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th 3
26.4 AFL Lab St Kilda
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 15th 5
26.4 The Footycast St Kilda
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 15th 5
26.2 Don't Blame the Data St Kilda
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 15th 4
25.9 ZaphBot Sydney
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 10th 2
25.8 Live Ladders St Kilda
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 15th 5
25.7 Graft St Kilda
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 15th 5

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-53.2 Graft Collingwood
1
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-49.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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-48.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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-47.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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-47.5 ZaphBot Collingwood
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-46.8 ZaphBot Adelaide
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-45.2 AFL Lab Collingwood
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-44.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-43.7 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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-43.7 ZaphBot Collingwood
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-42.8 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-42.7 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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-42.2 Graft Collingwood
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-41.5 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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-40.9 ZaphBot Adelaide
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-40.7 Stattraction Collingwood
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-39.6 Live Ladders Collingwood
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-39.2 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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-38.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-37.4 Squiggle Collingwood
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-37.3 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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-37.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-35.7 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-35.7 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-35.7 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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