LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 Hawthorn Gold Coast Adelaide Greater Western Sydney Collingwood Brisbane Lions Western Bulldogs Geelong North Melbourne Sydney Port Adelaide Essendon St Kilda Richmond Carlton Melbourne Fremantle West Coast
Wheelo Ratings 18.6 2.0 2.1 4.0 5.0 5.4 4.2 -1.5 2.7 5.3 3.9 6.6 6.5 4.6 -2.4 6.2 6.3 6.5 4.8 7.1 0.1 2.8 -3.9 7.0
Ladder 17.1 -1.8 2.2 6.7 10.0 8.5 -0.3 6.3 4.9 7.8 7.1 -0.3 4.9 4.1 4.1 2.6 2.6 5.6 3.4 1.9 1.9 3.4 8.5
Live Ladders 16.6 1.6 1.6 3.8 4.7 4.9 7.7 -0.5 0.7 4.1 5.2 6.8 6.4 2.1 -10.0 7.1 5.9 7.0 4.0 4.8 3.1 2.2 -4.6 7.7
Squiggle 16.0 1.1 1.2 3.9 4.9 4.8 3.5 -1.1 4.3 3.0 5.5 6.6 6.7 3.1 -2.6 6.6 6.1 7.0 5.0 3.3 2.3 0.5 -8.1 6.1
Winnable 15.6 1.8 2.1 3.6 4.1 4.1 6.5 -7.1 3.1 -0.6 6.1 6.0 6.2 5.6 -0.5 5.3 6.4 6.8 6.8 4.9 -2.4 4.0 -9.3 8.0
Glicko Ratings 12.9 2.0 2.0 3.8 5.1 4.4 -2.0 3.4 5.8 3.3 6.5 6.4 5.5 -4.8 6.4 6.8 6.3 7.2 5.4 -5.3 3.2 -7.4 7.0
Matter of Stats 12.1 1.6 1.8 3.9 4.9 5.0 -5.2 2.0 4.2 3.2 6.1 5.8 5.5 -6.8 6.2 5.1 6.6 6.0 7.4 -0.3 1.8 -5.2 7.4
The Footycast 11.6 1.1 1.5 3.8 5.2 5.4 -8.6 2.7 6.8 3.0 7.0 6.7 5.7 -6.6 3.9 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.9 -1.9 2.0 -6.9 7.7
PlusSixOne 11.5 1.2 1.2 2.5 3.2 3.3 -1.6 -6.3 1.6 2.8 3.8 6.2 6.1 5.9 -0.4 5.1 5.5 6.1 4.0 6.2 -1.1 -1.8 -5.7 4.9
Stattraction 10.6 1.0 1.5 3.5 4.7 6.8 -7.5 1.1 4.6 1.9 5.8 5.2 5.3 -9.9 4.7 5.3 7.0 6.5 6.2 0.5 2.4 -6.4 8.3
Don't Blame the Data 10.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 5.0 5.6 -5.9 -0.6 3.5 4.7 4.7 4.6 6.0 -11.4 5.6 4.2 6.9 6.6 5.4 0.2 3.0 -4.6 7.1
AFL Lab 10.0 1.6 1.1 3.2 4.0 2.8 -4.2 0.1 1.0 3.4 5.9 5.2 2.2 -9.3 6.6 3.2 6.5 4.4 7.5 2.1 0.5 -0.2 7.3
Graft 8.1 -0.1 0.5 3.2 4.5 1.6 -8.0 3.7 6.6 1.4 6.4 6.2 5.7 -10.9 2.2 4.7 7.0 7.6 5.1 -0.1 -4.0 -7.9 8.9
What Snoo Thinks 7.6 0.8 0.8 1.5 4.6 5.5 -10.6 -1.1 5.0 2.8 6.3 2.6 3.7 -12.6 4.5 6.9 7.3 6.0 7.4 -6.0 6.1 -7.5 8.1
ZaphBot 6.6 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.2 2.7 7.5 -12.1 -7.0 6.1 0.2 0.3 7.5 1.4 -4.3 -1.8 3.8 6.2 6.9 4.3 0.9 4.3 -9.2 8.8
AFLalytics 6.3 2.1 4.2 2.4 -3.3 1.0 4.3 3.8 6.5 6.2 5.6 -2.2 5.7 5.6 6.3 5.2 6.7 0.9 0.3 -4.7 5.9
Elo Predicts! 0.1 -1.2 -0.6 0.8 1.0 5.5 -16.7 -6.5 7.1 2.2 1.3 6.8 1.9 -13.9 -0.4 7.0 4.7 8.7 4.9 -6.2 -4.7 -9.6 8.1

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.98751765 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 2
9.56346647 Graft West Coast
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 18th 1
9.56083497 Graft West Coast
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 18th 2
9.36975144 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 2
9.36145365 What Snoo Thinks West Coast
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 18th 2
9.21200056 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 1
8.95628856 Stattraction West Coast
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 18th 2
8.94775588 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
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 13th 2
8.92892959 Winnable West Coast
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 18th 1
8.92176326 Stattraction West Coast
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 18th 1
8.82022497 ZaphBot Hawthorn
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 1st 2
8.80221668 Matter of Stats West Coast
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 18th 1
8.77555882 The Footycast West Coast
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 18th 1
8.74382224 What Snoo Thinks Melbourne
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 16th 2
8.74112353 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 4th 2
8.73632826 Wheelo Ratings West Coast
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 18th 1
8.66215318 Live Ladders West Coast
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 18th 1
8.64688529 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
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 13th 0
8.63061471 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 1st 2
8.59282353 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
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 13th -1
8.53911176 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
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 13th 1
8.52502647 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 7th 2
8.46275574 The Footycast West Coast
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 18th 2
8.39245632 Winnable West Coast
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 18th 2
8.38762750 Live Ladders Hawthorn
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 1st 2
8.37620882 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
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 11th 2

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-18.5 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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8
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 2nd -1
-18.3 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-16.5 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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18
 2nd 2
-15.8 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 2nd 1
-15.5 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 9th 0
-15.4 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 9th -1
-15.1 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 9th 1
-14.5 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 9th 1
-14.3 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 9th 0
-14.3 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 9th -1
-14.1 Winnable Fremantle
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 17th 0
-14.1 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 2nd 2
-14.0 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-14.0 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-13.9 Squiggle Fremantle
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 17th 0
-13.8 Squiggle Fremantle
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 17th -1
-13.6 Winnable Fremantle
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 17th -1
-13.5 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 2nd 1
-13.4 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 3rd -1
-13.2 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 9th -1
-13.2 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 9th 1
-13.2 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 9th 0
-12.7 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 9th -1
-12.6 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 9th 0
-12.6 Graft North Melbourne
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 9th -1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
48.2 Winnable Fremantle
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 17th 0
47.8 Squiggle Fremantle
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 17th 0
47.5 Squiggle Fremantle
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 17th -1
47.2 Winnable Fremantle
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 17th -1
43.6 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 17th 0
43.2 Graft Fremantle
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 17th 0
42.9 Graft Fremantle
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 17th -1
42.1 The Footycast Fremantle
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 17th 0
41.5 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 17th 1
41.1 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 17th -1
41.1 Glicko Ratings Fremantle
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 17th 0
40.8 The Footycast Fremantle
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 17th -1
39.8 Glicko Ratings Fremantle
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 17th -1
39.7 Stattraction Fremantle
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 17th -1
39.4 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 17th 0
39.3 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 17th 2
39.2 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 17th -1
38.8 What Snoo Thinks Fremantle
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 17th -1
38.8 What Snoo Thinks Fremantle
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 17th 0
38.3 Stattraction Fremantle
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 17th 0
38.0 PlusSixOne Fremantle
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 17th 0
37.8 What Snoo Thinks Fremantle
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 17th 1
37.5 What Snoo Thinks Carlton
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 15th -1
37.5 What Snoo Thinks Carlton
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 15th 0
37.3 Elo Predicts! Carlton
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 15th -1
36.7 PlusSixOne Fremantle
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 17th -1

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-56.9 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-56.6 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-53.0 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 2nd 2
-51.7 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 2nd 1
-50.9 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 9th 0
-50.7 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 9th -1
-50.3 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 9th 1
-49.0 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 9th 1
-48.5 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 9th 0
-48.5 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 9th -1
-48.2 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 2nd 2
-48.1 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-48.1 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-46.9 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 2nd 1
-46.8 ZaphBot Adelaide
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-46.5 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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-46.5 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 9th 1
-46.5 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 9th 0
-45.4 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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-45.2 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 9th 0
-45.1 Graft North Melbourne
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-44.9 Graft North Melbourne
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-44.8 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 2nd 1
-44.5 Graft Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-44.1 Graft Gold Coast
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 2nd -1