LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Collingwood Brisbane Lions Geelong Hawthorn Adelaide Western Bulldogs Gold Coast Fremantle Greater Western Sydney Port Adelaide Carlton Sydney Essendon Melbourne St Kilda North Melbourne Richmond West Coast
Live Ladders 123.5 5.0 4.8 6.2 6.5 6.3 5.8 6.2 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.9 7.8 8.0 8.1 5.4 4.9 8.1 6.8 6.3 7.2 6.1 7.0 6.7 5.6 7.6 7.3 7.8 7.3 2.6 8.6 9.0 9.1
Winnable 123.3 5.2 5.2 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.9 7.9 5.4 5.6 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.6 6.2 7.0 7.5 5.6 6.6 4.8 7.8 7.4 5.3 8.5 9.1 9.1
Squiggle 120.0 5.1 4.9 6.3 5.9 5.9 5.5 6.1 6.8 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.2 5.5 4.4 7.8 6.2 7.4 6.8 5.8 6.8 7.0 5.4 7.0 5.9 7.7 6.7 3.5 8.4 9.2 8.5
ZaphBot 117.2 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.5 6.4 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 0.1 8.6 8.5 7.0 4.9 7.2 5.5 7.4 5.6 6.3 7.8 1.1 7.8 8.0 3.6 8.7 9.3 9.6
Wheelo Ratings 116.3 4.4 4.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.5 6.1 6.6 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.9 3.6 4.5 7.3 6.1 7.1 6.7 5.9 6.7 6.7 5.1 6.9 6.1 7.5 7.1 3.3 8.6 8.5 8.8
Don't Blame the Data 115.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.3 6.3 5.9 6.4 7.1 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.2 8.2 4.3 7.3 6.4 7.4 6.1 7.0 5.9 6.5 6.5 6.1 7.4 6.2 6.7 7.5 4.6 8.6 9.0 8.8
Stattraction 112.9 4.3 4.1 6.0 6.2 5.9 5.6 6.4 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.9 8.0 8.1 3.3 6.6 6.4 6.9 6.7 6.8 5.4 6.8 7.4 5.4 7.5 4.7 7.7 7.5 3.3 8.9 9.0 9.3
Glicko Ratings 111.9 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7 6.3 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.1 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.6 7.6 3.6 5.3 6.6 6.2 7.1 6.9 5.4 7.0 6.3 4.7 6.3 6.7 6.8 7.1 5.9 8.6 9.0 8.9
AFL Lab 111.3 4.5 4.2 5.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.4 6.7 7.1 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.1 4.2 6.8 8.0 6.6 6.3 7.2 6.6 5.3 7.2 5.9 7.1 6.6 6.9 6.7 1.5 8.4 7.6 8.9
Matter of Stats 110.7 4.5 4.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.6 7.5 7.8 3.9 4.9 7.0 6.3 6.9 6.6 6.1 6.6 6.7 5.4 6.8 5.9 7.8 6.9 3.6 8.7 8.2 8.9
What Snoo Thinks 108.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.6 7.6 7.6 4.2 4.1 8.0 6.8 6.4 5.8 5.7 6.7 6.1 5.2 6.3 4.1 8.3 7.3 3.8 8.4 8.1 9.3
Graft 107.6 3.5 3.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.9 6.7 7.3 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.6 7.7 7.9 3.5 4.6 6.7 5.6 7.1 6.6 6.0 6.6 5.3 5.4 7.3 3.5 8.3 6.4 3.6 8.9 9.1 9.5
The Footycast 106.8 4.0 3.9 5.3 5.3 5.5 4.8 5.8 6.6 6.6 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.9 7.9 3.6 5.2 6.6 6.2 7.1 7.0 6.2 6.4 4.5 5.8 7.0 4.9 7.8 6.7 2.4 8.6 8.1 9.0
Elo Predicts! 104.7 3.3 3.6 4.5 4.4 5.1 4.1 5.7 7.1 7.2 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7 8.0 3.0 8.4 8.4 7.3 4.2 6.7 5.4 6.5 4.6 5.2 6.9 0.9 7.5 6.1 3.5 8.3 8.7 9.6
PlusSixOne 100.5 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.6 2.5 3.9 5.6 4.7 5.9 6.5 5.6 6.5 6.3 6.2 5.8 5.0 6.3 5.8 2.5 7.6 6.3 7.6
Informed Stats 85.6 5.6 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.9 6.8 7.0 7.7 7.9 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.2 7.0 7.2 2.8 7.8 5.2 8.1 8.0 2.4 8.5 8.4 10.0
Ladder 70.0 -1.8 -1.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 2.8 4.8 6.4 5.4 5.1 6.1 5.4 4.4 6.1 7.4 7.7 10.0 5.5 6.7 1.2 5.3 7.2 2.0 1.2 3.8 0.1 2.0 4.5 4.5 4.3 5.2 1.3 4.6 5.0 9.7
AFLalytics 9.2 4.0 5.2 -4.6 4.7 4.2 6.4 4.2 6.5 5.0 5.7 4.9 5.8 5.8 4.7 5.9 3.8 2.7 7.6 3.5 5.9

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
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6
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8
9
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 18th 13
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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8
9
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 18th 14
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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9
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 18th 15
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
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8
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 18th 6
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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 18th 9
9.99950294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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 18th 10
9.99950000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 11
9.99941176 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 12
9.99870294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 7
9.99869718 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 9
9.99717059 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 15
9.99551000 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 14
9.99550000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 8
9.98898753 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 13
9.98751765 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 2
9.98384424 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 4
9.98337941 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 5
9.98208115 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 9
9.97795282 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 8
9.97663529 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 4
9.97384859 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 7
9.97240635 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 12
9.97064718 Informed Stats Collingwood
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 1st 15
9.96767353 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 15
9.96459129 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 5
9.96406176 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 8

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-16.6 Graft Collingwood
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9
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 1st 0
-14.9 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-14.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st -1
-12.6 AFL Lab Collingwood
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 1st 0
-12.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.9 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.4 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.3 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.1 Graft Collingwood
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 1st -1
-11.0 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 12th 4
-10.8 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-10.8 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 12th 2
-10.4 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st -1
-10.2 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 12th -1
-9.8 Live Ladders Collingwood
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 1st 0
-9.5 ZaphBot Sydney
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 12th -1
-9.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st -1
-9.2 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 12th 3
-8.7 Squiggle Collingwood
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 1st 0
-8.7 ZaphBot Sydney
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 12th 2
-8.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 2
-8.6 ZaphBot Sydney
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 12th 3

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
42.0 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 12th 4
41.5 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 12th 2
40.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 12th -1
39.0 ZaphBot Sydney
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 12th -1
38.3 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 12th 3
37.4 ZaphBot Sydney
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 12th 2
37.2 ZaphBot Sydney
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 12th 3
36.5 ZaphBot Sydney
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 12th 1
36.4 Graft Sydney
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 12th -1
36.0 ZaphBot Sydney
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 12th 4
34.9 The Footycast St Kilda
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 15th 4
33.8 Informed Stats Sydney
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 12th 4
32.9 Live Ladders St Kilda
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 15th 4
32.3 Graft St Kilda
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 15th 4
31.9 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
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 15th 4
31.2 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 8
31.1 AFL Lab St Kilda
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 15th 4
30.7 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 3
30.7 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 9th 5
30.1 The Footycast Sydney
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 12th -1
29.6 Live Ladders St Kilda
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 15th 3
29.4 What Snoo Thinks St Kilda
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 15th 5
29.3 Matter of Stats St Kilda
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 15th 4
29.0 Wheelo Ratings St Kilda
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 15th 4
28.6 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 4
28.6 Graft Sydney
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 12th 4

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-53.2 Graft Collingwood
1
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 1st 0
-49.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-48.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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-47.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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-47.5 ZaphBot Collingwood
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-45.2 AFL Lab Collingwood
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-44.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-43.7 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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-43.7 ZaphBot Collingwood
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-42.8 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-42.7 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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-42.2 Graft Collingwood
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-41.5 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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-40.7 Stattraction Collingwood
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-39.6 Live Ladders Collingwood
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-38.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-37.4 Squiggle Collingwood
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-37.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-35.7 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-35.7 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-35.7 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-35.3 ZaphBot Adelaide
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-35.0 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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-34.9 ZaphBot Collingwood
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-34.6 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 3