LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Collingwood Brisbane Lions Gold Coast Hawthorn Adelaide Greater Western Sydney Geelong Western Bulldogs Fremantle Port Adelaide Carlton Essendon St Kilda Sydney Melbourne Richmond North Melbourne West Coast
Live Ladders 54.4 4.3 4.3 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.5 1.7 5.1 4.3 7.2 4.7 7.0 4.1 6.2 7.1 6.8 7.0 7.6 3.8 3.7 6.5 8.8 8.9 8.4
Don't Blame the Data 53.7 4.3 4.3 4.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 7.0 7.2 7.5 0.5 7.9 1.5 7.5 4.8 6.7 6.8 4.8 6.8 6.5 6.8 7.2 6.1 0.8 7.1 8.8 8.7 8.0
Glicko Ratings 53.6 4.4 4.4 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.8 7.0 7.1 -0.6 5.7 3.8 7.2 6.3 6.9 6.5 6.0 6.8 6.0 5.1 6.9 7.1 2.7 6.9 8.5 7.3 8.1
Stattraction 51.1 3.5 3.6 5.3 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.7 7.1 7.3 -1.5 7.3 1.2 7.3 5.6 6.4 6.6 4.9 7.0 6.4 6.8 7.5 5.6 -2.3 7.0 8.9 8.8 8.8
Matter of Stats 50.7 3.8 3.9 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.5 6.6 6.9 -0.2 5.7 1.3 7.3 5.9 6.7 6.0 5.4 6.7 6.4 6.2 7.1 5.2 0.7 6.3 8.2 8.1 8.3
Squiggle 49.9 3.9 3.9 5.9 5.5 5.7 5.4 6.2 6.5 6.9 2.3 4.1 3.5 7.0 6.7 6.0 4.9 6.4 6.5 5.9 6.2 7.3 5.5 0.5 5.0 8.0 6.7 7.4
Wheelo Ratings 49.8 3.9 3.9 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.7 6.3 6.5 6.9 -0.8 4.5 3.1 7.2 6.1 6.8 5.6 6.1 6.6 5.9 6.2 7.0 4.4 1.2 6.2 8.2 7.3 7.9
Winnable 49.0 4.0 4.2 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.5 6.3 6.3 6.6 2.0 6.4 -0.4 7.4 5.8 4.1 6.3 4.8 6.6 6.6 5.6 7.4 6.6 -2.0 7.1 8.4 6.7 8.5
AFL Lab 48.3 3.7 3.4 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.4 6.3 6.8 0.1 7.1 1.1 7.1 4.9 5.0 4.3 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.7 6.8 3.5 2.6 5.5 7.9 9.0 8.2
Graft 47.8 2.7 3.1 5.1 5.5 5.8 5.5 6.4 6.6 7.1 -1.3 5.1 0.3 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.2 5.6 6.9 6.5 6.7 7.4 5.7 -5.2 4.5 8.9 8.7 9.3
What Snoo Thinks 40.8 3.4 3.4 3.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.6 -1.3 5.9 -2.5 7.4 4.9 7.2 5.0 3.1 6.7 6.3 5.5 7.5 5.5 -3.5 8.0 8.8 8.6 8.8
The Footycast 40.4 3.4 3.5 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.1 6.3 6.5 -2.0 5.0 -1.4 7.1 6.2 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.1 6.8 4.1 -3.1 5.9 8.2 7.6 8.2
ZaphBot 39.7 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.9 6.6 -6.3 9.0 -4.6 6.5 1.8 7.7 2.9 6.8 7.8 6.6 7.1 6.2 6.6 -10.0 7.4 8.4 6.5 9.2
Elo Predicts! 39.5 2.3 2.8 3.6 3.5 4.3 3.9 5.8 6.9 6.4 -2.8 9.0 -7.1 7.4 2.0 6.4 3.8 5.6 7.0 6.7 6.1 5.4 7.2 -9.7 4.5 9.4 8.8 9.2
PlusSixOne 37.7 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.5 -1.7 3.3 -1.2 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.2 5.1 6.1 3.6 0.1 3.1 5.7 6.1 6.0
Informed Stats 31.7 5.7 5.3 6.8 6.8 7.2 2.9 8.2 5.7 7.7 3.5 6.8 7.1 3.8 7.2 5.4 6.7 8.1 5.4 -2.6 9.3 9.5 9.5 10.0
Ladder 26.7 -1.4 -0.8 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.4 7.7 10.0 1.2 4.1 5.2 3.7 7.1 2.3 6.0 3.7 1.9 3.4 1.2 4.1 1.5 -1.0 4.1 4.1 -1.8 9.3
AFLalytics 8.8 3.5 5.2 -4.6 4.7 -0.9 6.4 4.2 5.8 6.1 5.5 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.3 5.2 2.3 2.2 5.2 7.0 5.9

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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6
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8
9
10
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 18th 6
9.98751765 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 2
9.98384424 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 4
9.98337941 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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 18th 5
9.97663529 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 4
9.96459129 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 5
9.93545174 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 6
9.92569365 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 3
9.91921447 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 6
9.91638835 Informed Stats North Melbourne
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 17th 6
9.87212353 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 3
9.83850988 Informed Stats Melbourne
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 15th 5
9.82749706 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 15th 6
9.80745047 Informed Stats Richmond
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 16th 6
9.80571824 Informed Stats North Melbourne
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 17th 4
9.79271976 Informed Stats North Melbourne
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 17th 5
9.76527918 Informed Stats Richmond
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 16th 5
9.74876176 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 15th 4
9.69927941 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 17th 6
9.67282318 Graft West Coast
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 18th 6
9.67031471 Elo Predicts! Richmond
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 16th 6
9.66710735 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 5
9.65922459 Informed Stats Richmond
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 16th 4
9.65026176 Elo Predicts! Richmond
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 16th 0
9.62389412 Elo Predicts! Richmond
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 16th 1
9.60992218 What Snoo Thinks West Coast
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 18th 6

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-16.9 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 4
-16.6 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
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18
 14th 2
-16.6 Graft Collingwood
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18
 1st 0
-16.0 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
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9
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11
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13
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18
 14th -1
-15.5 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
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6
7
8
9
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12
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18
 3rd -1
-15.3 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
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18
 3rd 0
-15.3 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th -1
-15.0 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
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 14th 3
-14.9 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-14.6 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 2
-14.4 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 3
-14.1 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 1
-14.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.9 Graft Sydney
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 14th -1
-13.9 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 4
-13.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st -1
-13.5 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 3rd 2
-12.9 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 3rd 1
-12.8 Informed Stats Sydney
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 14th 4
-12.6 AFL Lab Collingwood
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 1st 0
-12.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.9 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.4 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 0

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
53.7 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
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18
 14th 4
53.3 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 14th 2
52.1 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 14th -1
50.6 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th -1
50.1 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 14th 3
49.1 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 2
48.9 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 3
48.1 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 1
47.9 Graft Sydney
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 14th -1
47.7 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 4
45.5 Informed Stats Sydney
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 14th 4
40.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 14th -1
40.2 Graft Sydney
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 14th 4
38.5 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 5
37.6 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 14th 5
35.6 The Footycast Sydney
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 14th 4
35.3 Informed Stats Sydney
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 14th 3
34.9 Winnable Sydney
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 14th 4
34.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 14th 1
33.7 Stattraction Sydney
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 14th 4
33.5 Graft Sydney
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 14th 2
33.4 Stattraction Sydney
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 14th -1
33.2 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 0
32.8 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 14th -1
32.8 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 14th 0
32.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 14th 0

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-53.2 Graft Collingwood
1
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18
 1st 0
-51.0 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
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18
 3rd -1
-50.7 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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18
 3rd 0
-49.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-48.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-47.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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 1st 0
-47.5 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st -1
-47.1 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 3rd 2
-45.8 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 3rd 1
-45.2 AFL Lab Collingwood
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-44.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-43.7 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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-43.7 ZaphBot Collingwood
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-42.8 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-42.7 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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-42.3 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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-42.3 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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-42.3 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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-42.2 Graft Collingwood
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-41.5 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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-41.1 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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-40.7 Stattraction Collingwood
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-39.6 Live Ladders Collingwood
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-39.0 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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-38.8 Graft Gold Coast
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