LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Melbourne Western Bulldogs Geelong Port Adelaide Brisbane Lions Sydney West Coast Essendon Richmond Fremantle St Kilda Greater Western Sydney Carlton Gold Coast Collingwood Adelaide Hawthorn North Melbourne
Squiggle 133.2 3.7 3.4 3.8 4.5 5.3 5.6 6.4 6.6 7.3 7.6 7.3 7.7 7.9 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.8 8.0 8.6 8.6 6.2 8.3 7.0 7.9 6.1 7.4 6.9 4.0 3.0 7.2 6.4 6.7 5.3 7.7 6.4 6.2 7.6 9.8
Live Ladders 132.6 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.4 7.2 7.4 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.4 6.3 8.5 6.4 8.1 6.9 7.2 5.8 4.8 2.3 7.2 6.6 6.9 5.2 7.7 7.1 6.1 6.4 9.7
AFLalytics 132.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 4.6 5.0 5.4 6.3 6.7 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.8 8.0 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.5 8.6 5.7 8.0 6.6 7.8 5.9 7.4 7.1 4.2 5.6 7.3 6.2 6.4 6.7 7.4 6.1 4.8 6.3 9.2
Graft 126.9 3.8 4.0 5.7 6.3 6.2 7.2 7.0 7.6 7.8 7.5 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.7 8.0 7.8 8.1 8.6 6.4 8.1 6.7 8.3 6.6 7.5 7.5 4.0 5.4 7.1 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.6 6.3 8.0 7.5 9.7
ZaphBot 126.4 3.2 3.6 3.8 5.3 5.8 5.8 6.9 6.7 7.3 7.6 7.3 7.9 8.0 7.2 7.6 7.8 7.6 8.3 8.6 5.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 6.7 7.6 7.5 1.1 3.3 7.1 6.7 6.8 6.5 7.9 5.6 7.4 6.8 9.6
Matter of Stats 123.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.6 4.9 5.4 6.2 6.6 7.2 7.6 7.3 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.9 7.8 8.0 8.6 5.9 8.0 6.1 7.8 6.2 7.1 6.7 3.9 5.7 7.1 6.3 6.3 6.6 7.3 6.1 4.4 5.8 9.2
Stattraction 122.4 2.8 2.7 3.2 4.5 5.1 5.3 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.5 7.4 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.8 8.1 8.0 8.5 8.7 4.0 7.6 6.5 8.2 6.3 7.1 7.3 3.6 5.5 6.9 6.5 6.9 6.9 7.2 5.8 6.3 4.5 9.0
Glicko Ratings 122.4 3.2 3.0 3.7 4.7 5.1 5.7 6.5 6.4 6.9 7.3 7.2 7.6 7.9 7.6 7.6 7.9 7.7 8.0 8.5 5.0 7.5 6.6 8.0 6.8 6.8 7.3 3.8 3.6 7.0 6.9 6.4 7.1 7.5 5.8 4.6 6.4 8.7
AFL Lab 119.8 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.9 5.2 5.8 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.7 8.2 8.5 5.3 7.5 6.8 7.8 7.0 6.3 7.2 3.6 3.6 6.8 6.7 7.2 4.8 7.6 5.9 3.7 6.5 9.3
PlusSixOne 119.2 3.1 3.3 3.4 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.3 3.7 6.3 6.8 7.8 5.6 7.1 7.1 5.5 5.9 6.5 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.8 4.6 5.8 5.2 8.6
FMI 115.7 3.3 2.6 2.4 3.6 4.0 4.9 5.3 6.1 7.5 7.8 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.5 7.7 7.7 6.0 8.0 2.6 8.4 4.2 7.7 6.6 6.1 4.0 7.3 4.3 6.5 6.0 6.4 6.9 1.5 7.2 9.8
Ladder 101.8 -2.1 -2.4 -0.1 1.5 3.1 3.1 4.4 7.1 8.0 6.7 8.0 8.0 7.1 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.4 10.0 10.0 8.1 8.0 3.5 7.5 0.7 7.2 7.8 -0.1 4.7 5.7 5.2 3.3 7.4 4.7 6.1 -0.8 7.2 10.0

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 4
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 5
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 6
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 7
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 8
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 9
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 10
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 11
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 12
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 13
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 14
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 15
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 16
9.99970588 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 12
9.99970588 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 13
9.99970588 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 14
9.99729974 Squiggle North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 6
9.99724600 Squiggle North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 4
9.99705882 FMI Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6th 16
9.99529412 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 3
9.99223756 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 6
9.99005265 Squiggle North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 5
9.98943209 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 7
9.98924403 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 14
9.98878985 Graft North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 6
9.98843021 Squiggle North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 8

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-12.8 FMI Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3rd 4
-12.7 Stattraction Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 1
-11.7 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 4
-11.1 Stattraction Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-10.9 FMI Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3rd 5
-8.6 Live Ladders Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-8.5 FMI Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-7.9 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 2
-7.8 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 5
-7.7 PlusSixOne Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-7.6 Glicko Ratings Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-7.5 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 2
-7.5 AFLalytics Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-7.5 Matter of Stats Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-6.9 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 6
-6.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 0
-6.5 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8th 2
-6.5 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 1
-6.4 ZaphBot Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-6.3 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 1
-6.3 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 2
-6.1 FMI Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 1
-6.0 Graft Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8th 2
-6.0 Stattraction Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 2
-5.9 FMI Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 2

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
43.4 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 4
35.7 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 2
35.7 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 5
35.1 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 2
33.8 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 6
33.6 ZaphBot Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 0
33.0 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 1
32.6 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 1
32.5 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 2
31.7 FMI Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 2
31.0 Stattraction Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 2
30.8 FMI Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 1
30.7 AFLalytics Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 4
30.5 Matter of Stats Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 4
30.3 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 0
30.2 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 1
29.4 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 3
29.4 Graft Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 2
29.3 ZaphBot Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 2
29.1 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 1
29.0 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 2
28.8 AFLalytics Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 2
28.5 PlusSixOne Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 0
28.2 AFL Lab Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 4
28.2 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 0
28.1 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9th 0

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-45.7 FMI Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3rd 4
-45.4 Stattraction Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 1
-42.3 Stattraction Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-41.8 FMI Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3rd 5
-37.2 Live Ladders Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-37.0 FMI Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-35.3 PlusSixOne Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-35.2 Glicko Ratings Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-35.1 AFLalytics Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-35.0 Matter of Stats Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-33.1 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8th 2
-32.9 ZaphBot Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-32.1 FMI Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 1
-32.0 Graft Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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8th 2
-32.0 Stattraction Melbourne
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1st 2
-31.5 PlusSixOne Melbourne
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1st 1
-31.1 ZaphBot Essendon
1
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8th 2
-31.0 AFL Lab Melbourne
1
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3
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1st 1
-30.5 AFLalytics Melbourne
1
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5
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1st 1
-30.5 ZaphBot Melbourne
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1st 1
-30.5 ZaphBot Essendon
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8th 5
-30.2 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
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5th 1
-30.1 AFL Lab Melbourne
1
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1st 0
-29.7 Matter of Stats Melbourne
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1st 1
-29.7 Glicko Ratings Melbourne
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1st 1