LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Gold Coast Geelong Adelaide Collingwood Richmond Western Bulldogs Brisbane Lions Melbourne Sydney North Melbourne Carlton Essendon St Kilda Fremantle West Coast Port Adelaide
Ladder 8.2 -1.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 -1.8 1.2 10.0 7.1 -1.8 -4.7 5.6 7.1 -1.8 8.5 1.2 1.2 8.5 -0.3 10.0 4.1
Wheelo Ratings 6.6 1.4 1.6 3.7 -1.5 5.7 -2.3 6.4 3.8 3.7 -6.2 5.5 2.4 6.3 5.5 2.6 2.8 4.8 1.4 -3.4 7.7 -5.5
Glicko Ratings 5.6 1.1 1.3 3.3 -0.4 5.9 -0.5 6.3 5.1 3.9 -13.0 5.2 2.1 6.2 5.7 1.2 -1.3 3.4 6.3 -6.1 8.2 -4.8
AFLalytics 5.5 1.6 4.0 -1.5 4.4 -0.9 5.4 4.2 5.0 -1.4 5.5 3.2 6.1 5.4 4.0 4.1 5.1 2.7 -2.1 7.2 -6.5
The Footycast 5.0 0.2 0.8 4.0 2.4 6.4 -7.4 6.0 4.5 3.5 -8.6 5.7 3.5 6.8 1.6 -0.3 0.8 7.2 3.1 -5.8 8.5 -7.7
Matter of Stats 4.9 0.6 0.9 3.3 -3.0 6.5 -4.1 6.0 4.1 3.6 -6.4 4.0 0.6 6.5 5.3 -0.4 3.1 5.9 3.6 -3.7 8.3 -10.7
Squiggle 4.5 0.4 0.6 3.4 -5.6 5.7 -2.5 7.2 5.7 5.3 -16.5 6.0 1.8 6.3 6.4 2.0 3.4 6.6 4.2 -8.9 7.5 -7.9
Live Ladders 4.1 0.4 0.6 3.2 -3.6 8.2 -0.5 7.5 1.8 4.9 -14.7 4.2 1.1 6.9 6.9 -3.4 5.7 5.1 -0.0 -3.2 8.8 -11.0
PlusSixOne 4.1 0.8 0.9 2.5 -4.1 -0.2 -5.1 4.9 3.8 4.5 -2.5 5.9 4.2 5.7 3.8 3.5 1.1 5.0 1.2 -4.8 6.8 -9.0
AFL Lab 4.0 0.8 0.5 2.7 -7.2 4.5 -2.4 7.6 3.0 3.8 -5.6 3.0 0.4 6.7 6.0 -1.7 5.0 4.5 0.9 1.6 8.4 -14.7
Winnable 3.2 0.4 0.6 2.2 -9.8 7.5 -5.9 5.8 5.4 6.3 -14.1 4.9 0.4 5.9 4.3 4.9 0.9 6.7 5.1 -9.1 8.6 -8.5
Stattraction 2.3 -0.4 0.2 2.6 -2.6 7.7 -6.1 6.3 3.3 2.4 -12.1 2.8 -0.0 6.6 2.9 -2.3 3.8 4.7 3.9 -4.8 9.1 -11.4
Graft 1.5 -1.0 -0.3 2.8 1.2 2.7 -6.8 5.7 5.5 1.6 -15.0 4.5 1.2 6.0 -0.2 -3.5 3.0 7.6 6.1 -6.4 9.2 -13.3
Don't Blame the Data 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 -4.7 6.7 -5.2 5.9 2.0 5.2 -14.1 1.7 -2.0 6.5 3.7 -4.4 3.5 4.3 4.0 -3.2 8.7 -14.3
What Snoo Thinks -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 -4.6 6.1 -11.1 7.6 1.6 4.3 -10.8 -1.8 0.6 4.2 1.3 -5.4 -3.2 7.0 1.7 -6.5 9.4 -9.6
ZaphBot -1.7 -1.2 -0.8 0.3 -3.0 8.3 -7.7 8.3 -4.1 0.9 -16.0 5.2 -8.2 5.7 -3.7 2.4 4.5 7.9 3.4 -6.3 9.0 -16.7
Elo Predicts! -1.7 -1.7 -0.9 1.0 0.2 6.6 -13.8 7.7 -2.7 4.1 -15.4 4.9 -7.1 6.4 -1.4 -6.5 -0.9 8.6 6.2 -6.6 9.7 -10.3

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.64187059 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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18
 17th 0
9.53279118 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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8
9
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13
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18
 17th -1
9.37953582 What Snoo Thinks West Coast
1
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7
8
9
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 17th -1
9.37953582 What Snoo Thinks West Coast
1
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8
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 17th 0
9.36591629 Graft West Coast
1
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18
 17th -1
9.35365271 Graft West Coast
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 17th 0
9.11683038 ZaphBot West Coast
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 17th 0
9.10626803 ZaphBot West Coast
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 17th -1
9.02487403 Stattraction West Coast
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 17th 0
8.97392809 Stattraction West Coast
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 17th -1
8.71926894 Don't Blame the Data West Coast
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 17th -1
8.71926894 Don't Blame the Data West Coast
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 17th 0
8.69396765 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 14th 0
8.63214118 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
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18
 14th -1
8.59023062 Live Ladders West Coast
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 17th -1
8.55493444 Live Ladders West Coast
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 17th 0
8.51320147 Winnable West Coast
1
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 17th 0
8.48353550 Stattraction Hawthorn
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 2nd 0
8.48258529 ZaphBot Hawthorn
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18
 2nd 0
8.47245021 Live Ladders Hawthorn
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 2nd 0
8.45151974 Winnable West Coast
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 17th -1
8.25741471 AFL Lab West Coast
1
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 17th -1
8.25682647 The Footycast West Coast
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 17th -1
8.23275247 ZaphBot Geelong
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 4th -1
8.22901176 The Footycast West Coast
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 17th 0
8.16485882 AFL Lab West Coast
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 17th 0

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-19.2 ZaphBot Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 0
-17.8 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-17.8 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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16
17
18
 7th -1
-17.6 AFL Lab Port Adelaide
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
9
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13
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18
 18th 0
-17.0 AFL Lab Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
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18
 18th -1
-17.0 ZaphBot Port Adelaide
1
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9
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18
 18th -1
-16.9 ZaphBot Richmond
1
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12
13
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18
 7th -1
-16.7 ZaphBot Richmond
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18
 7th 0
-16.6 Graft Port Adelaide
1
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18
 18th -1
-16.5 Graft Port Adelaide
1
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9
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18
 18th 0
-16.3 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
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13
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18
 7th -1
-16.2 Graft Richmond
1
2
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8
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16
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18
 7th -1
-16.1 Graft Richmond
1
2
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18
 7th 0
-15.9 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
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3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
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18
 7th 0
-15.6 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
9
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18
 7th -1
-15.5 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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16
17
18
 3rd -1
-15.5 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
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13
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18
 7th 0
-15.4 Winnable Richmond
1
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18
 7th 0
-15.3 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 3rd 0
-14.9 Stattraction Port Adelaide
1
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3
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5
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 18th -1
-14.9 Winnable Richmond
1
2
3
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 7th -1
-14.6 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
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 7th -1
-14.4 Winnable Greater Western Sydney
1
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 1st -1
-14.3 Don't Blame the Data Port Adelaide
1
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 18th 0
-14.3 Don't Blame the Data Port Adelaide
1
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 18th -1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
58.4 ZaphBot Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
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7
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9
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11
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13
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18
 18th 0
55.2 AFL Lab Port Adelaide
1
2
3
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 18th 0
54.1 AFL Lab Port Adelaide
1
2
3
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18
 18th -1
54.0 ZaphBot Port Adelaide
1
2
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18
 18th -1
53.2 Graft Port Adelaide
1
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18
 18th -1
53.0 Graft Port Adelaide
1
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 18th 0
49.8 Stattraction Port Adelaide
1
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 18th -1
48.6 Don't Blame the Data Port Adelaide
1
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18
 18th -1
48.6 Don't Blame the Data Port Adelaide
1
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 18th 0
47.9 Live Ladders Port Adelaide
1
2
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 18th 0
47.7 Live Ladders Port Adelaide
1
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18
 18th -1
47.0 Matter of Stats Port Adelaide
1
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 18th -1
47.0 Stattraction Port Adelaide
1
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 18th 0
46.6 Matter of Stats Port Adelaide
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 18th 0
44.2 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
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 18th 0
43.9 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
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 18th -1
42.5 Winnable Fremantle
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 16th 0
41.9 Squiggle Fremantle
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 16th 0
41.6 Squiggle Fremantle
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 16th -1
41.4 Winnable Fremantle
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18
 16th -1
41.1 Squiggle Port Adelaide
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 18th -1
41.0 Squiggle Port Adelaide
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 18th 0
40.9 The Footycast Port Adelaide
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 18th 0
40.9 PlusSixOne Port Adelaide
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 18th 0
40.7 The Footycast Port Adelaide
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 18th -1
39.8 PlusSixOne Port Adelaide
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 18th -1

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-55.7 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
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11
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14
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18
 7th 0
-55.7 Squiggle Richmond
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18
 7th -1
-53.7 ZaphBot Richmond
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18
 7th -1
-53.4 ZaphBot Richmond
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 7th 0
-52.7 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
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18
 7th -1
-52.4 Graft Richmond
1
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 7th -1
-52.3 Graft Richmond
1
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 7th 0
-51.7 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
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11
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18
 7th 0
-51.2 Live Ladders Richmond
1
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18
 7th -1
-51.0 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
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18
 3rd -1
-51.0 Live Ladders Richmond
1
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 7th 0
-50.8 Winnable Richmond
1
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 7th 0
-50.7 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
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-49.8 Winnable Richmond
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-49.2 Glicko Ratings Richmond
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-48.8 Winnable Greater Western Sydney
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 1st -1
-48.4 Glicko Ratings Richmond
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-48.1 Don't Blame the Data Richmond
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-48.1 Don't Blame the Data Richmond
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-45.8 Stattraction Richmond
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-45.4 Stattraction Richmond
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-42.9 The Footycast Richmond
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-42.5 The Footycast Richmond
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-42.3 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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-42.3 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 3rd -1