LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Melbourne Geelong Brisbane Lions Fremantle Carlton Sydney Collingwood Western Bulldogs Richmond St Kilda Gold Coast Port Adelaide Adelaide Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Essendon West Coast North Melbourne
Squiggle 104.3 3.2 5.6 5.3 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.9 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.6 8.1 8.5 6.6 7.3 4.9 6.1 7.3 4.9 6.4 6.5 3.9 6.6 7.1 7.5 7.4 3.4 6.3 8.2 8.6
AFLalytics 103.2 2.4 4.8 4.8 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.2 7.8 7.0 7.7 5.4 5.1 7.3 5.1 6.6 6.1 4.2 6.8 6.8 7.5 7.3 3.2 6.7 7.8 7.7
Wheelo Ratings 102.1 2.3 4.6 4.6 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7 8.2 7.8 6.7 7.7 4.3 4.7 7.2 5.7 6.7 5.9 4.6 7.0 6.9 7.5 6.8 3.1 6.5 7.9 7.8
AFL Lab 102.1 3.3 4.8 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.8 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.7 8.1 9.0 4.9 8.4 3.0 5.5 6.7 5.5 6.9 6.0 4.7 6.8 5.6 7.1 7.5 5.7 5.5 7.9 8.2
Live Ladders 101.8 3.2 4.9 4.5 5.4 5.9 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.0 6.7 6.7 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.5 8.2 8.8 5.5 8.4 2.8 4.8 7.3 5.8 6.3 5.1 3.2 6.9 6.7 7.8 7.5 4.1 6.4 8.7 8.4
Matter of Stats 100.6 2.3 4.4 4.5 5.5 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.6 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.8 8.3 8.4 4.6 7.5 5.3 5.6 7.3 5.2 6.7 6.2 3.5 6.8 7.0 7.4 7.2 2.5 6.8 7.9 7.4
The Footycast 100.5 2.0 4.4 4.7 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.7 7.2 6.8 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.6 8.2 7.7 5.9 8.1 3.5 5.6 6.9 4.8 6.7 6.5 3.4 6.9 6.5 7.3 7.4 3.2 6.9 8.2 7.4
The Cruncher 98.2 2.7 4.0 4.4 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.7 6.4 6.9 6.7 6.8 7.3 7.4 7.8 7.6 8.1 8.5 5.2 7.6 4.8 4.9 6.9 3.6 6.8 6.3 5.3 6.1 5.2 7.2 7.5 3.9 5.8 7.5 7.6
PlusSixOne 95.3 2.8 3.9 4.1 5.0 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.7 6.4 5.4 7.1 3.7 4.5 6.9 5.1 6.5 6.1 5.2 6.4 5.7 7.2 7.2 3.3 6.5 6.8 7.2
Glicko Ratings 93.4 1.9 3.7 4.1 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.5 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.3 7.6 7.6 8.1 8.1 5.1 6.6 4.4 5.4 7.0 2.7 6.4 6.1 3.9 6.7 5.6 7.3 6.1 2.8 6.2 7.8 7.0
ZaphBot 91.5 1.8 3.7 3.3 4.1 4.8 5.1 5.2 6.1 6.7 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.8 7.9 8.4 9.1 5.9 8.4 2.4 3.7 6.7 4.6 7.2 6.2 3.0 4.5 5.0 6.8 6.8 2.4 5.2 8.0 7.0
FMI 90.9 1.2 4.0 4.4 5.6 5.4 5.8 5.8 6.4 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.5 7.2 7.4 6.1 8.1 2.2 3.7 6.2 3.8 5.2 5.8 3.3 4.9 6.1 7.0 6.6 1.9 8.4 7.7 7.7
Elo Predicts! 89.0 1.1 3.3 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.5 6.0 6.2 6.9 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.9 8.2 7.0 8.6 1.9 -0.5 5.6 3.5 6.9 5.3 3.2 6.6 6.4 6.0 6.9 0.3 7.6 8.1 8.7
Ladder 71.2 0.5 -1.8 2.8 3.8 3.8 4.1 5.1 6.1 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.7 6.4 6.4 10.0 8.6 -0.0 6.3 4.7 6.9 7.3 4.7 2.2 6.1 -1.0 5.3 3.9 5.7 7.6 -3.9 8.8 6.9 5.5
Graft 58.0 7.2 6.7 6.6 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.5 8.0 7.8 6.3 8.2 6.8 7.2 7.7 4.0 7.5 5.7 4.5 7.5 7.4 7.7 8.8 6.6 8.9 9.1 9.0

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.99985588 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 13
9.99882353 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 11
9.99799644 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 12
9.99506526 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 10
9.96626471 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 13
9.96625879 ZaphBot Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 10
9.95596176 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
16th 12
9.94462821 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 9
9.94004776 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
16th 14
9.92369062 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
16th 8
9.91141765 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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17
18
16th 11
9.90679544 The Cruncher Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
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12
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18
1st 10
9.90579071 Live Ladders Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
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13
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18
1st 10
9.88384706 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
1st 10
9.88320882 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 10
9.88320821 FMI Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
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11
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18
1st 10
9.88274412 ZaphBot Melbourne
1
2
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8
9
10
11
12
13
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18
1st 9
9.87633732 FMI Port Adelaide
1
2
3
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7
8
9
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11
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12th 13
9.87233568 Live Ladders Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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11
12
13
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18
1st 9
9.86288065 Live Ladders Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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17
18
1st 6
9.85102188 Glicko Ratings Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
1st 10
9.84455379 Live Ladders Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 5
9.83296309 Live Ladders Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
1st 8
9.82451315 Graft Melbourne
1
2
3
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7
8
9
10
11
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13
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18
1st 10
9.82427353 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
16th 7
9.82379926 AFL Lab Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
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18
1st 10

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-16.2 FMI Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4th 2
-15.2 FMI Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4th 0
-15.2 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4th 2
-13.4 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 3
-13.3 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4th 0
-12.8 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 2
-12.7 ZaphBot Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4th 0
-12.6 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4th 1
-12.2 FMI Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4th 1
-12.0 ZaphBot Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4th 2
-11.1 Live Ladders Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4th 2
-11.0 Live Ladders Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4th 0
-11.0 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5th 0
-10.6 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 3
-10.2 FMI Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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16
17
18
5th 0
-10.0 The Footycast Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
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12
13
14
15
16
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18
4th 0
-9.0 The Footycast Fremantle
1
2
3
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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17
18
4th 2
-8.5 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
3
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5
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8
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10
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12
13
14
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18
15th 2
-8.5 Matter of Stats Hawthorn
1
2
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8
9
10
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14
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18
15th 2
-8.5 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
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14
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18
12th 0
-8.4 The Footycast Hawthorn
1
2
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15th 2
-7.4 ZaphBot Hawthorn
1
2
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15th 2
-7.3 FMI Port Adelaide
1
2
3
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9
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14
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18
12th 0
-7.2 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
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5
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9
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11
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13
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18
16th 0
-7.0 FMI Port Adelaide
1
2
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5
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7
8
9
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18
12th 1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
46.8 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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18
15th 3
45.6 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
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7
8
9
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18
15th 2
41.3 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
3
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18
15th 3
36.9 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
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18
15th 2
36.9 Matter of Stats Hawthorn
1
2
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18
15th 2
36.9 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
2
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12th 0
36.9 The Footycast Hawthorn
1
2
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15th 2
34.9 ZaphBot Hawthorn
1
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18
15th 2
34.7 FMI Port Adelaide
1
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12th 0
34.4 ZaphBot Essendon
1
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18
16th 0
34.1 FMI Port Adelaide
1
2
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12th 1
33.9 Live Ladders Hawthorn
1
2
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8
9
10
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13
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18
15th 2
33.6 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
2
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4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
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14
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18
12th 1
33.2 AFLalytics Hawthorn
1
2
3
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5
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9
10
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18
15th 2
32.5 Glicko Ratings Hawthorn
1
2
3
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18
15th 2
32.3 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
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18
15th 5
31.6 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
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15th 6
31.2 The Footycast Essendon
1
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18
16th 0
31.1 AFLalytics Essendon
1
2
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18
16th 0
30.5 Wheelo Ratings Hawthorn
1
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9
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18
15th 2
30.4 Squiggle Essendon
1
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16th 0
29.7 The Footycast Hawthorn
1
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15th 3
29.3 FMI Essendon
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16th 0
29.3 ZaphBot Hawthorn
1
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15th 3
29.2 ZaphBot Hawthorn
1
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15th 5
29.1 Live Ladders Hawthorn
1
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9
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11
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18
15th 3

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-52.3 FMI Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4th 2
-50.5 FMI Fremantle
1
2
3
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9
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15
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18
4th 0
-50.4 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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16
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18
4th 2
-46.6 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
4th 0
-45.5 ZaphBot Fremantle
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
9
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13
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18
4th 0
-45.2 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
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13
14
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16
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18
4th 1
-44.4 FMI Fremantle
1
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18
4th 1
-44.1 ZaphBot Fremantle
1
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4th 2
-42.3 Live Ladders Fremantle
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4th 2
-42.1 Live Ladders Fremantle
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4th 0
-42.0 Elo Predicts! Carlton
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5th 0
-40.4 FMI Carlton
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5th 0
-40.0 The Footycast Fremantle
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4th 0
-38.0 The Footycast Fremantle
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4th 2
-34.0 Squiggle Fremantle
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4th 2
-33.9 Live Ladders Fremantle
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4th 1
-33.7 AFL Lab Fremantle
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4th 2
-32.9 AFLalytics Carlton
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5th 0
-32.7 Elo Predicts! Carlton
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5th 6
-32.5 PlusSixOne Fremantle
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4th 0
-32.4 Elo Predicts! Carlton
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5th 7
-32.3 Matter of Stats Fremantle
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4th 0
-31.9 The Footycast Fremantle
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4th 1
-31.8 Wheelo Ratings Fremantle
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4th 2
-31.6 Wheelo Ratings Fremantle
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4th 0