LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Port Adelaide Brisbane Lions Richmond Geelong West Coast St Kilda Western Bulldogs Collingwood Melbourne Greater Western Sydney Carlton Fremantle Essendon Gold Coast Hawthorn Sydney North Melbourne Adelaide
Squiggle 118.5 3.6 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.9 4.3 4.6 5.9 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.9 9.2 10.0 7.9 6.1 6.7 7.7 3.3 6.5 5.2 4.9 6.1 5.8 7.2 6.6 6.8 7.4 2.6 7.8 4.5 9.3
Live Ladders 117.3 1.6 1.2 2.0 2.3 3.4 4.4 5.2 6.6 7.0 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.4 8.5 9.0 9.2 10.0 7.6 7.1 7.4 7.8 4.0 6.6 5.8 6.6 6.5 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.2 -0.0 4.6 3.6 8.4
AFLalytics 114.7 2.3 1.8 2.4 2.1 2.7 4.3 4.6 6.0 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.9 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.9 9.2 10.0 7.1 6.6 6.1 7.3 5.3 5.6 5.0 6.4 6.3 6.7 7.4 6.3 5.6 7.5 2.3 5.3 3.9 8.0
Stattraction 104.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3.4 4.0 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.8 7.2 7.5 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 8.6 10.0 6.2 6.2 5.3 7.1 5.7 4.8 5.0 4.8 5.4 6.7 7.1 6.0 4.6 6.2 2.6 4.7 2.6 7.5
Swinburne 103.7 1.8 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.9 3.0 5.0 5.7 6.1 6.4 7.1 7.5 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.9 9.2 10.0 5.1 4.8 6.8 7.9 4.6 4.2 6.2 5.9 5.8 6.1 7.3 5.8 5.2 7.7 0.4 4.4 2.2 8.0
PlusSixOne 97.8 1.1 -0.3 0.1 -1.3 0.8 3.5 4.0 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.7 6.8 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.6 9.1 10.0 7.7 5.9 4.7 8.0 4.6 3.8 2.6 5.7 4.1 5.6 6.1 6.7 5.1 5.7 2.6 3.4 2.8 7.5
Matter of Stats 63.8 2.7 7.9 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.9 9.2 10.0 7.8 8.4 8.2 8.3 8.5 7.8 6.8 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.6 8.6 8.3 6.9 7.8 8.0 8.0
Footy Maths Institute 61.5 1.2 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.9 9.1 10.0 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.9 7.3 6.4 8.4 6.6 8.6 7.5 7.9 8.5 7.0 5.6 7.0 7.8 8.6
Graft 58.9 0.6 6.8 7.9 7.8 7.7 9.0 9.1 10.0 7.3 8.1 7.6 8.3 8.3 5.4 7.1 7.8 7.1 7.3 7.4 6.9 8.2 7.6 6.5 6.0 7.7 7.9
Ladder 57.1 -7.3 -4.7 -7.3 -4.4 -1.1 1.8 4.8 4.8 3.8 4.8 5.8 6.7 8.4 7.1 7.4 8.0 8.7 10.0 10.0 5.3 1.3 4.3 1.2 5.6 -0.6 3.3 0.7 4.8 6.1 2.6 -2.3 -0.8 2.3 3.3 1.3 8.7
AFL Lab 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.0 -0.4 -1.5 2.8 7.8 7.4 1.4 -10.7 5.2 1.2 -0.5 7.4 3.2 2.6 6.5 2.7 -12.2 -8.4 -8.1 0.1
The Arc 1.2 1.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.7 3.4 -3.0 7.1 6.8 -0.8 -5.4 -2.6 2.5 -0.2 5.3 5.0 6.6 0.5 3.1 -4.7 -7.9 -10.8 0.2

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Squiggle Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 12
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 12
10.00000000 Swinburne Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 12
10.00000000 Squiggle Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 13
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 13
10.00000000 Swinburne Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 13
10.00000000 Squiggle Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 14
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 14
10.00000000 Swinburne Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 14
10.00000000 Squiggle Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 15
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 15
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 16
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 17
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 17
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3rd 17
9.99999974 Stattraction Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 13
9.99999953 Stattraction Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 12
9.99999812 Matter of Stats Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 13
9.99999762 Live Ladders Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 13
9.99999576 Matter of Stats Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 14
9.99999503 Stattraction Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 14
9.99999047 AFLalytics Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 13
9.99998824 Live Ladders Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 14
9.99998821 Matter of Stats Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 12
9.99998821 Live Ladders Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 12
9.99997526 PlusSixOne Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 14

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-22.0 PlusSixOne Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 3
-21.8 AFL Lab Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 3
-20.0 PlusSixOne North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
-19.6 The Arc North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
-15.7 AFL Lab Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 2
-15.7 Live Ladders Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 4
-14.4 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
-14.3 The Arc Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 3
-14.2 PlusSixOne Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 1
-14.0 AFL Lab Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 3
-13.9 Swinburne North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
-13.7 Swinburne Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 4
-13.7 PlusSixOne Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 4
-13.2 AFL Lab St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6th 1
-13.2 AFL Lab St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6th 0
-13.2 AFL Lab North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
-13.0 The Arc West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5th 3
-12.8 Squiggle West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5th 4
-12.7 PlusSixOne West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5th 3
-12.7 PlusSixOne North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 4
-12.5 Footy Maths Institute Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 0
-12.5 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
-12.5 AFLalytics North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
-12.4 The Arc St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6th 1
-12.3 Squiggle North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
64.1 PlusSixOne Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 3
63.7 AFL Lab Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 3
60.0 PlusSixOne North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
59.2 The Arc North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
51.5 AFL Lab Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 2
51.3 Live Ladders Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 4
48.9 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
48.6 The Arc Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 3
48.5 PlusSixOne Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 1
48.0 AFL Lab Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16th 3
47.8 Swinburne North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
47.5 Swinburne Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 4
47.3 PlusSixOne Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 4
46.4 AFL Lab North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
45.3 PlusSixOne North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 4
45.0 Footy Maths Institute Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 0
45.0 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
44.9 AFLalytics North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
44.7 Squiggle North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2
44.3 Live Ladders Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 3
43.1 AFLalytics Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 4
43.1 Live Ladders Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 1
42.9 The Arc North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 3
42.7 PlusSixOne Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
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9
10
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13
14
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18
18th 0
41.7 PlusSixOne North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 3
41.5 The Arc Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15th 3

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-46.5 AFL Lab St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6th 1
-46.5 AFL Lab St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6th 0
-46.1 The Arc West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5th 3
-45.6 Squiggle West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5th 4
-45.4 PlusSixOne West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5th 3
-44.8 The Arc St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6th 1
-43.8 Graft St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6th 0
-43.5 The Arc Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 2
-43.3 Live Ladders West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5th 4
-42.1 PlusSixOne Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 2
-39.4 AFL Lab St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6th 3
-38.7 Squiggle West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5th 3
-36.9 The Arc Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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16
17
18
2nd 1
-36.5 PlusSixOne West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5th 4
-36.1 PlusSixOne Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 3
-36.1 AFL Lab Port Adelaide
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1st 1
-36.1 AFL Lab Port Adelaide
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1st 0
-35.6 PlusSixOne St Kilda
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6th 0
-35.2 PlusSixOne St Kilda
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-35.1 Squiggle West Coast
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5th 5
-33.6 AFL Lab St Kilda
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6th 2
-33.0 PlusSixOne Melbourne
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9th 5
-32.9 Footy Maths Institute St Kilda
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-32.6 Swinburne West Coast
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-32.6 Stattraction Port Adelaide
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1st 0