LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs

Accuracy

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Brisbane Lions Geelong West Coast Richmond Collingwood Greater Western Sydney Essendon Western Bulldogs Hawthorn Adelaide Port Adelaide North Melbourne Fremantle St Kilda Sydney Carlton Melbourne Gold Coast
The Arc 6.43 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.0 8.5 9.4 -0.2 8.5 7.7 7.1 7.6 6.9 7.2 2.5 6.1 5.4 5.1 7.5 5.8 7.3 7.6 8.6 6.4 8.9
Swinburne 6.41 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.5 5.6 6.7 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.0 8.6 9.3 -0.6 8.3 8.0 7.3 7.7 6.7 7.0 2.8 6.1 5.4 5.7 7.5 6.3 7.4 6.9 8.3 5.7 8.9
Stattraction 6.40 5.3 5.3 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.1 5.2 6.3 7.1 7.8 8.2 8.0 8.5 9.5 0.8 8.1 8.2 6.3 7.2 6.1 7.6 2.5 5.9 4.6 6.3 7.6 5.7 7.7 6.6 8.0 6.7 9.3
Matter of Stats 6.34 4.5 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.3 4.8 4.4 4.4 5.7 6.7 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.1 8.5 9.3 1.8 8.6 6.2 6.5 7.1 6.6 6.8 3.2 5.9 5.0 5.1 7.5 5.2 6.6 7.9 8.4 6.9 8.7
AFLalytics 6.32 4.2 5.3 5.0 5.3 5.4 4.9 4.6 4.5 5.7 6.7 7.6 8.1 8.2 7.9 8.4 9.3 0.9 8.5 6.8 7.5 7.3 6.1 6.2 3.6 5.7 6.0 3.8 7.4 5.7 6.5 8.5 8.3 5.6 9.5
AFL Lab 6.31 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.4 4.3 5.5 6.6 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.0 8.6 9.2 1.5 8.3 7.5 5.9 6.9 5.5 7.0 2.1 5.9 4.3 6.4 7.7 5.5 6.2 8.0 8.2 7.9 8.8
Live Ladders 6.17 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.2 5.4 6.4 7.3 8.0 8.4 8.1 8.6 9.3 -0.4 8.2 6.7 8.0 6.7 6.7 5.2 2.1 6.5 4.6 5.1 7.7 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.9 6.3 9.3
Graft 6.14 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.4 4.1 4.0 5.3 6.6 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.0 8.5 9.4 -0.9 8.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 6.1 7.4 0.6 6.4 4.2 5.1 7.6 6.3 7.9 6.9 8.1 5.8 9.3
Squiggle 6.13 4.2 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.2 5.6 6.6 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.0 8.5 9.3 0.3 8.5 6.5 7.3 7.4 6.0 5.6 3.2 6.4 5.1 3.5 7.0 4.9 7.1 8.4 8.4 6.1 8.8
PlusSixOne 6.04 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.5 4.4 4.3 5.3 6.2 7.0 7.5 7.8 7.4 8.0 9.3 -3.3 7.8 7.7 7.1 7.7 6.4 7.1 2.0 6.1 4.0 4.1 7.4 5.9 7.7 7.3 8.6 5.9 9.2
Footy Maths Institute 5.66 3.7 4.8 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.0 3.4 3.1 4.2 6.0 6.8 7.4 7.8 7.4 8.4 9.3 -0.3 7.5 7.2 5.4 6.4 3.4 8.0 -0.4 5.2 2.2 6.4 7.4 2.1 7.4 7.4 8.7 8.2 9.5
Ladder 2.34 -6.0 -2.4 -2.1 -0.8 -2.4 -2.1 -1.1 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.1 2.5 1.2 1.2 2.8 4.4 6.4 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.7 10.0 0.5 6.5 1.7 0.9 2.9 4.0 0.2 -1.1 3.4 0.9 1.3 2.4 -4.7 0.4 7.2 6.7 7.2 1.6

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40, so that a perfect score is 10.0.

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position it currently occupies, with 100% probability.

Mid-season scores are generated as if the current ladder were final. This means scores fluctuate from week to week, as teams move and cause predictions that were accurate last week to become inaccurate this week, or vice versa.

Each model's score is an average of its individual predictions. Since Squiggle only began tracking ladder predictions in Round 7, 2019, with some models not tracked until Round 8 or 9, they are advantaged by not participating in early rounds, when scores tend to be lower.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Best Calls

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 16
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 17
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 18
10.00000000 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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17
18
18th 18
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
18th 19
10.00000000 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
18th 19
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 20
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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18
17th 20
10.00000000 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
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18th 20
10.00000000 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
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13
14
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18th 21
10.00000000 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
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3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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18th 21
10.00000000 The Arc Gold Coast
1
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7
8
9
10
11
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18th 21
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 21
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
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17
18
17th 21
10.00000000 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
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3
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8
9
10
11
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18th 21
10.00000000 AFLalytics Gold Coast
1
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3
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9
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13
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18th 21
10.00000000 PlusSixOne Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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18th 21
10.00000000 Live Ladders Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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18
18th 21
10.00000000 Matter of Stats Gold Coast
1
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9
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13
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18th 21
9.99999997 AFLalytics Gold Coast
1
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3
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9
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18th 19
9.99999997 Matter of Stats Gold Coast
1
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9
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18th 20
9.99999974 PlusSixOne Gold Coast
1
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9
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18th 19
9.99999974 AFLalytics Gold Coast
1
2
3
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8
9
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18th 20
9.99999953 PlusSixOne Gold Coast
1
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3
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8
9
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18th 20
9.99999926 Live Ladders Gold Coast
1
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9
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18th 20
9.99999926 Graft Gold Coast
1
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8
9
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18th 20

Worst Calls

Score Prediction Actual Round
-11.3 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 8
-10.8 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 13
-10.8 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 12
-10.1 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
1st 10
-9.6 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 9
-9.5 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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17
18
13th 13
-8.9 Graft Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
1st 8
-8.9 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
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13
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18
1st 12
-8.8 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
1
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18
1st 13
-8.7 Graft Brisbane Lions
1
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5
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7
8
9
10
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13
14
15
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17
18
1st 12
-8.5 Swinburne Brisbane Lions
1
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4
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6
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8
9
10
11
12
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18
1st 12
-8.5 Swinburne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
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11
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1st 13
-8.4 Graft Brisbane Lions
1
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3
4
5
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9
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18
1st 13
-8.0 Footy Maths Institute Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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17
18
1st 8
-7.8 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
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6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
1st 14
-7.8 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
14
15
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18
1st 11
-7.8 Graft Brisbane Lions
1
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6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
14
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17
18
1st 10
-7.7 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
1
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7
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9
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8th 13
-7.6 Footy Maths Institute Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
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1st 12
-7.6 Squiggle Brisbane Lions
1
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1st 12
-7.4 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
1
2
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6
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9
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8th 12
-7.3 Squiggle Brisbane Lions
1
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3
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1st 13
-7.3 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
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18
1st 8
-7.2 The Arc Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
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18
1st 12
-7.2 The Arc Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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11
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13
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18
1st 13

Optimistic Calls

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
39.0 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13th 13
33.0 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
13th 14
31.0 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
13th 12
29.0 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
13th 11
28.7 AFLalytics St Kilda
1
2
3
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7
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9
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11
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13
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18
14th 7
27.0 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
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11
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10th 13
26.2 Squiggle Fremantle
1
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13th 13
25.9 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
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9
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11
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13
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18
10th 15
25.4 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
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10th 14
24.5 Matter of Stats Fremantle
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13th 13
24.3 Squiggle Port Adelaide
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11th 7
23.3 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
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13th 15
23.3 Stattraction Fremantle
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13th 13
22.9 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
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5
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8
9
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11
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10th 12
22.2 AFLalytics Port Adelaide
1
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11th 7
22.1 AFLalytics Fremantle
1
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13th 13
21.9 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
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8
9
10
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18
10th 8
21.8 AFLalytics Fremantle
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13th 14
21.6 Squiggle Fremantle
1
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13th 14
21.5 AFL Lab Adelaide
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10th 8
21.2 Graft Fremantle
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13th 13
21.1 Live Ladders Adelaide
1
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10th 8
21.0 Graft Adelaide
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10th 13
20.9 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
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8
9
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11
12
13
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13th 7
20.9 Footy Maths Institute Greater Western Sydney
1
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6th 11
20.6 Swinburne Melbourne
1
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17th 8

Pessimistic Calls

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-42.7 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 8
-41.5 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
1st 13
-41.5 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
1st 12
-40.1 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
1st 10
-39.3 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 9
-37.8 Graft Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 8
-37.8 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 12
-37.7 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 13
-37.5 Graft Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
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8
9
10
11
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14
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18
1st 12
-37.1 Swinburne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
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5
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9
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11
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18
1st 12
-37.1 Swinburne Brisbane Lions
1
2
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18
1st 13
-36.9 Graft Brisbane Lions
1
2
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18
1st 13
-36.1 Footy Maths Institute Brisbane Lions
1
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18
1st 8
-35.6 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
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1st 14
-35.6 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
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1st 11
-35.5 Graft Brisbane Lions
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1st 10
-35.3 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
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8th 13
-35.3 Footy Maths Institute Brisbane Lions
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1st 12
-35.2 Squiggle Brisbane Lions
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1st 12
-34.8 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
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8th 12
-34.6 Squiggle Brisbane Lions
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1st 13
-34.6 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
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1st 8
-34.5 The Arc Brisbane Lions
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1st 12
-34.4 The Arc Brisbane Lions
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1st 13
-34.2 Footy Maths Institute Brisbane Lions
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1st 13