LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs

Accuracy

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Geelong Brisbane Lions Richmond Collingwood West Coast Greater Western Sydney Western Bulldogs Essendon Hawthorn Port Adelaide Adelaide North Melbourne Fremantle St Kilda Sydney Carlton Melbourne Gold Coast
AFLalytics 6.41 4.7 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.6 5.3 4.8 4.6 5.7 6.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.5 8.2 9.2 9.6 3.3 6.3 7.8 6.8 6.1 1.3 7.2 5.7 5.8 4.2 7.4 5.7 6.5 8.5 8.3 5.6 9.5
The Arc 6.38 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.8 5.7 6.6 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.5 8.2 9.2 9.6 2.2 5.7 8.0 6.8 6.9 0.1 7.5 6.1 6.6 3.5 7.5 5.8 7.3 7.6 8.6 6.4 8.9
Matter of Stats 6.37 4.8 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.6 5.7 6.6 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.3 9.3 9.4 4.1 4.9 7.8 6.7 6.6 0.9 7.4 5.9 6.6 3.1 7.5 5.2 6.6 7.9 8.4 6.9 8.7
Live Ladders 6.36 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.5 5.6 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.6 9.5 9.8 2.1 7.0 7.7 7.4 6.7 -0.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 2.5 7.7 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.9 6.3 9.3
Swinburne 6.33 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.2 4.6 4.6 5.4 6.5 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.5 8.4 9.2 9.7 1.9 5.9 7.9 6.6 6.7 0.4 7.3 6.1 7.0 3.6 7.5 6.3 7.4 6.9 8.3 5.7 8.9
Stattraction 6.29 5.6 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.4 4.2 5.2 6.1 7.0 7.4 7.7 7.4 8.1 9.1 9.7 3.2 4.3 7.9 6.9 6.1 -0.0 7.8 5.9 7.5 2.4 7.6 5.7 7.7 6.6 8.0 6.7 9.3
Squiggle 6.25 4.6 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.5 5.6 6.6 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.6 8.4 9.4 9.6 2.7 5.9 7.9 7.1 6.0 0.8 6.8 6.4 5.5 3.1 7.0 4.9 7.1 8.4 8.4 6.1 8.8
AFL Lab 6.19 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.5 5.5 6.4 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.1 3.8 3.8 7.9 6.5 5.5 -0.4 7.1 5.9 7.6 2.3 7.7 5.5 6.2 8.0 8.2 7.9 8.8
Graft 6.15 4.7 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.2 5.2 6.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.4 8.3 9.3 9.7 1.5 5.7 7.9 6.8 6.1 -1.9 7.8 6.4 6.8 2.0 7.6 6.3 7.9 6.9 8.1 5.8 9.3
PlusSixOne 6.07 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.1 7.9 9.2 9.9 -0.6 5.6 8.0 6.4 6.4 -0.4 7.7 6.1 6.0 1.8 7.4 5.9 7.7 7.3 8.6 5.9 9.2
Footy Maths Institute 5.62 4.0 5.1 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.3 3.7 3.4 4.1 5.7 6.7 7.0 7.2 6.7 7.9 9.1 9.9 2.2 3.0 7.3 6.7 3.4 -3.2 8.3 5.2 8.0 -0.5 7.4 2.1 7.4 7.4 8.7 8.2 9.5
Ladder 2.84 -5.4 -1.4 -1.1 -1.1 -1.8 -1.4 -0.5 1.8 3.1 3.8 3.5 2.8 1.8 1.5 2.8 4.4 6.7 7.1 6.7 6.4 7.1 8.4 9.0 3.5 -1.5 4.0 2.6 4.2 -2.7 1.9 3.7 3.7 -0.2 2.7 -4.1 0.8 7.3 6.8 7.3 1.9

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40, so that a perfect score is 10.0.

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position it currently occupies, with 100% probability.

Mid-season scores are generated as if the current ladder were final. This means scores fluctuate from week to week, as teams move and cause predictions that were accurate last week to become inaccurate this week, or vice versa.

Each model's score is an average of its individual predictions. Since Squiggle only began tracking ladder predictions in Round 7, 2019, with some models not tracked until Round 8 or 9, they are advantaged by not participating in early rounds, when scores tend to be lower.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Best Calls

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 13
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 16
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 17
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 18
10.00000000 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 18
10.00000000 Swinburne Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 18
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Swinburne Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 20
10.00000000 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Swinburne Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 18th 21
10.00000000 The Arc Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
6
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8
9
10
11
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13
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 18th 21
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Footy Maths Institute Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 21
10.00000000 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 18th 21
10.00000000 AFLalytics Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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14
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18
 18th 21
10.00000000 PlusSixOne Gold Coast
1
2
3
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9
10
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 18th 21
10.00000000 Live Ladders Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Matter of Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Swinburne Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 AFLalytics Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 22
10.00000000 AFLalytics Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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17
18
 17th 22

Worst Calls

Score Prediction Actual Round
-10.6 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 13
-10.3 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 12
-9.7 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 14
-9.5 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 13
-9.2 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 7th 12
-8.9 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 11
-8.7 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 11
-8.5 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 7th 14
-8.4 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 8
-8.4 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 7th 13
-7.8 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 2nd 13
-7.8 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 2nd 12
-7.8 AFL Lab Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 14
-7.7 AFL Lab Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 12
-7.1 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 10
-7.0 AFL Lab Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 11
-6.7 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 9
-6.5 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 14
-6.5 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 13
-6.3 AFL Lab Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 13
-6.3 Live Ladders Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 12
-6.2 Live Ladders Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 7th 11
-6.0 Graft Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 8
-5.9 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 12
-5.9 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 15

Optimistic Calls

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
39.0 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 13
33.0 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 14
32.9 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 13
31.8 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 15
31.3 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 14
31.0 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 12
29.0 Footy Maths Institute Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 11
28.8 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 12
28.7 AFLalytics St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 7
27.6 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 8
27.0 AFL Lab Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 8
26.7 Graft Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 11th 13
26.5 Live Ladders Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 8
26.2 Squiggle Fremantle
1
2
3
4
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8
9
10
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12
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18
 13th 13
25.9 Graft Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 14
25.6 AFL Lab Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 14
25.5 Graft Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 15
25.3 AFL Lab Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
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9
10
11
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13
14
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18
 11th 13
24.6 Stattraction Adelaide
1
2
3
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10
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14
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18
 11th 13
24.5 Matter of Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
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9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 13th 13
24.3 PlusSixOne Adelaide
1
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9
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13
14
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18
 11th 15
24.1 Stattraction Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
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9
10
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12
13
14
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17
18
 11th 14
23.9 Swinburne Adelaide
1
2
3
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5
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9
10
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12
13
14
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18
 11th 15
23.9 Swinburne Adelaide
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 13
23.7 Stattraction Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 15
23.6 Footy Maths Institute Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 9

Pessimistic Calls

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-41.2 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 13
-40.7 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 12
-39.4 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 14
-38.5 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 12
-37.7 Footy Maths Institute Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 11
-37.4 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 11
-37.0 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 14
-36.8 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 8
-36.8 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
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9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 7th 13
-35.7 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 13
-35.6 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 12
-35.6 AFL Lab Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 14
-35.4 AFL Lab Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
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9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 7th 12
-34.3 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
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16
17
18
 2nd 10
-34.0 AFL Lab Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
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18
 7th 11
-33.5 PlusSixOne Brisbane Lions
1
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18
 2nd 9
-32.6 AFL Lab Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
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8
9
10
11
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18
 7th 13
-32.5 Live Ladders Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
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9
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11
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13
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18
 7th 12
-32.3 Live Ladders Western Bulldogs
1
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 7th 11
-31.9 Graft Brisbane Lions
1
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18
 2nd 8
-31.9 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
1
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18
 2nd 12
-31.8 Live Ladders Brisbane Lions
1
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18
 2nd 13
-31.6 Graft Brisbane Lions
1
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18
 2nd 12
-31.5 Live Ladders Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
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18
 7th 13
-31.5 Stattraction Western Bulldogs
1
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 7th 14