LADDER Updated

AFL Lab
Glicko Ratings
Live Ladders
Wheelo Ratings
Matter of Stats
The Cruncher
Squiggle
AFLalytics
ZaphBot
The Footycast
Graft
FMI
PlusSixOne
Elo Predicts!

After Round 15, 2022. Click teams to reveal detailed projections.

Wins % Range
1
 Melbourne 15.7 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 15.2 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Brisbane Lions 15.0 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
4
 Sydney 14.3 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
5
 Fremantle 14.3 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Carlton 14.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
7
 Richmond 13.3 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
8
 Collingwood 13.4 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.4 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Gold Coast 11.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–12
11
 St Kilda 11.9 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
12
 Port Adelaide 10.9 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Adelaide 8.4 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Hawthorn 8.0 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 GWS 7.0 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 Essendon 6.1 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 West Coast 3.5 60%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 North Melbourne 2.3 57%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
AFL Lab
 9.2 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
Glicko Ratings
 8.8 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
Live Ladders
 8.8 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
Wheelo Ratings
 8.6 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
Matter of Stats
 8.7 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
The Cruncher
 8.6 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
Squiggle
 8.6 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
AFLalytics
 8.5 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
ZaphBot
 8.7 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
The Footycast
 8.4 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
Graft
 8.4 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
FMI
 7.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
PlusSixOne
 8.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
Elo Predicts!
 6.5 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
AFL Lab
 14.9 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
PlusSixOne
 15.6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
Elo Predicts!
 15.9 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
Wheelo Ratings
 15.3 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
ZaphBot
 14.6 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
Live Ladders
 14.8 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
The Footycast
 14.6 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
Matter of Stats
 14.6 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
Graft
 14.6 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
AFLalytics
 14.6 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
The Cruncher
 14.6 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
Glicko Ratings
 14.4 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
Squiggle
 14.6 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
FMI
 16.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
FMI
 14.6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
The Footycast
 14.3 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
ZaphBot
 14.1 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
Matter of Stats
 14.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
AFLalytics
 14.2 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
Graft
 14.2 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
AFL Lab
 13.9 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
The Cruncher
 14.2 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
Squiggle
 14.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
Wheelo Ratings
 14.2 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
Glicko Ratings
 13.8 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
PlusSixOne
 14.1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
Live Ladders
 14.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
Elo Predicts!
 13.7 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
Matter of Stats
 13.5 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
Elo Predicts!
 14.3 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
Squiggle
 13.5 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
AFLalytics
 13.4 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
The Footycast
 13.2 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
ZaphBot
 12.8 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
Live Ladders
 13.7 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
Wheelo Ratings
 13.7 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
AFL Lab
 13.4 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
Glicko Ratings
 13.3 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
The Cruncher
 13.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
PlusSixOne
 12.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
Graft
 13.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
FMI
 13.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
Glicko Ratings
 7.0 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
AFL Lab
 6.6 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
Squiggle
 6.6 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
PlusSixOne
 5.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
AFLalytics
 6.5 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
Wheelo Ratings
 6.2 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
Matter of Stats
 6.5 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
Live Ladders
 6.3 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
Graft
 6.4 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
The Footycast
 6.3 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
The Cruncher
 6.2 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
ZaphBot
 6.6 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
FMI
 5.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
Elo Predicts!
 3.7 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
Matter of Stats
 14.3 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
Squiggle
 14.4 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
AFLalytics
 14.2 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
Glicko Ratings
 14.1 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
AFL Lab
 13.9 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
Elo Predicts!
 15.1 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
The Footycast
 14.2 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
The Cruncher
 14.1 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
Wheelo Ratings
 14.3 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
PlusSixOne
 14.2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
FMI
 16.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
Live Ladders
 14.2 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
Graft
 13.9 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
ZaphBot
 13.6 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
Elo Predicts!
 16.3 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
AFLalytics
 15.4 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
ZaphBot
 15.1 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
Squiggle
 15.3 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
The Footycast
 15.2 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
Glicko Ratings
 15.3 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
Live Ladders
 15.2 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
Wheelo Ratings
 15.5 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
Graft
 14.9 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
Matter of Stats
 14.8 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
The Cruncher
 14.8 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
FMI
 14.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
PlusSixOne
 15.6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
AFL Lab
 14.8 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
FMI
 14.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
The Cruncher
 12.0 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
Live Ladders
 12.1 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
Squiggle
 11.9 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
AFL Lab
 11.7 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
Graft
 12.0 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
AFLalytics
 11.7 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
Wheelo Ratings
 11.7 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
Elo Predicts!
 11.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
PlusSixOne
 11.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
The Footycast
 11.7 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
Glicko Ratings
 11.6 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
Matter of Stats
 11.5 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
ZaphBot
 11.0 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
PlusSixOne
 6.7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
The Footycast
 7.4 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
The Cruncher
 7.3 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
Graft
 7.5 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
ZaphBot
 7.5 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
Elo Predicts!
 5.8 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
Live Ladders
 7.1 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
Wheelo Ratings
 6.9 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
Matter of Stats
 7.3 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
Squiggle
 7.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
AFLalytics
 7.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
Glicko Ratings
 7.2 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
FMI
 5.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
AFL Lab
 6.8 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
Elo Predicts!
 8.1 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
PlusSixOne
 8.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
FMI
 7.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
Squiggle
 8.3 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
Matter of Stats
 8.3 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
AFLalytics
 8.2 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
Wheelo Ratings
 8.0 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
ZaphBot
 8.3 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
The Cruncher
 7.9 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
Graft
 8.0 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
The Footycast
 7.8 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
Live Ladders
 7.9 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
Glicko Ratings
 7.9 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
AFL Lab
 7.7 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
ZaphBot
 16.3 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
AFL Lab
 16.1 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
The Cruncher
 15.9 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
Elo Predicts!
 16.3 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
FMI
 14.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
Matter of Stats
 15.6 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
Graft
 15.5 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
Live Ladders
 15.6 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
Squiggle
 15.6 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
Wheelo Ratings
 15.9 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
AFLalytics
 15.4 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
Glicko Ratings
 15.4 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
The Footycast
 15.2 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
PlusSixOne
 16.2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
AFL Lab
 2.6 58%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
PlusSixOne
 1.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
The Footycast
 2.9 56%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
The Cruncher
 2.7 57%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
Glicko Ratings
 2.8 59%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
Matter of Stats
 2.8 56%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
Live Ladders
 2.1 56%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
AFLalytics
 2.5 54%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
Wheelo Ratings
 2.0 55%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
Elo Predicts!
 1.9 58%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
Squiggle
 2.3 53%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
ZaphBot
 2.9 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
Graft
 2.2 57%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
FMI
 1.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
ZaphBot
 11.3 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
PlusSixOne
 11.1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
Graft
 11.4 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
The Footycast
 11.1 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
The Cruncher
 11.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
Glicko Ratings
 10.9 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
AFL Lab
 10.8 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
AFLalytics
 10.9 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
Matter of Stats
 10.8 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
Squiggle
 10.8 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
Wheelo Ratings
 10.6 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
Elo Predicts!
 10.7 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
Live Ladders
 10.8 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
FMI
 10.7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
Live Ladders
 13.6 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
Elo Predicts!
 14.4 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
FMI
 14.5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
Wheelo Ratings
 13.5 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
AFL Lab
 13.2 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
Graft
 13.3 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
The Cruncher
 13.1 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
PlusSixOne
 13.5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
Glicko Ratings
 12.9 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
AFLalytics
 13.1 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
Matter of Stats
 13.0 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
Squiggle
 13.0 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
The Footycast
 12.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
ZaphBot
 12.7 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
PlusSixOne
 12.2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
The Footycast
 12.0 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
Glicko Ratings
 11.9 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
Matter of Stats
 11.8 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
ZaphBot
 11.7 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
AFL Lab
 11.9 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
The Cruncher
 11.9 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
Squiggle
 11.8 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
Live Ladders
 12.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
Graft
 12.0 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
Wheelo Ratings
 11.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
AFLalytics
 11.7 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
FMI
 13.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
Elo Predicts!
 11.3 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
FMI
 14.6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
Elo Predicts!
 15.6 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
ZaphBot
 14.3 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
Graft
 14.3 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
PlusSixOne
 14.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
The Cruncher
 14.2 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
Wheelo Ratings
 14.4 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
Squiggle
 14.1 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
Live Ladders
 14.1 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
Glicko Ratings
 13.8 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
AFLalytics
 14.2 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
The Footycast
 14.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
Matter of Stats
 13.9 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
AFL Lab
 13.6 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
FMI
 1.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
PlusSixOne
 3.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
ZaphBot
 4.2 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
Glicko Ratings
 4.2 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
The Cruncher
 4.0 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
Wheelo Ratings
 3.3 59%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
Graft
 3.6 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
Matter of Stats
 4.1 60%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
Squiggle
 3.7 58%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
The Footycast
 4.0 59%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
Elo Predicts!
 2.5 60%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
AFLalytics
 3.8 58%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
AFL Lab
 3.7 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
Live Ladders
 3.2 58%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
Graft
 12.8 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
Glicko Ratings
 12.6 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
AFL Lab
 12.5 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
ZaphBot
 12.4 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
The Cruncher
 12.4 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
Wheelo Ratings
 12.5 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
PlusSixOne
 12.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
Matter of Stats
 12.3 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
AFLalytics
 12.3 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
The Footycast
 12.3 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
Squiggle
 12.2 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
Elo Predicts!
 12.7 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
Live Ladders
 12.3 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
FMI
 12.2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9

Live Hasn't factored in current round in progress Hasn't factored in last completed round

This ladder is a weighted average of all models: Full weighting 0% weighting 0% weighting

+ About ladder projections...

Ladder Projections are weirder than they first appear! It's natural to think that there are many possible ladders and we should simply pick the most likely one. The problem is there are far more possible ladders than you can imagine—more than the number of atoms in the universe. Even ignoring the number of wins and simply trying to rank teams in order, there are 6.4 quadrillion possible combinations.

Until there are only one or two rounds left, even the most likely ladder has no chance of actually occurring — the likelihood is so close to zero, it may as well be.

So we need to abandon any hope of being able to actually pick the final ladder. Instead, what we're attempting to do is to minimize the amount of error between our prediction and reality.

This raises a few subjective questions, such as: What is the most important part of a ladder? Is it the ranking or the number of wins? Because we can't always minimize the error in both at once.

This ladder cares most about ranks, because that determines finals positions. But ranks are derived from wins, and wins are more predictable — a good model should get the number of wins about right, but can easily miss the mark on ranks, since those can change sharply from only a few unexpected results, particularly around the middle of the ladder.

Projected ladders, then, are a series of compromises. They won't get everything right, and they often can't make one thing more right without making something else more wrong. Such quirks are the unavoidable result of attempting to distill a wide range of possible futures down into one single ladder — which will definitely be wrong, but is hopefully close.

Common Questions

Q. Why is the season tipped to be so close?

Most early-season projections will predict an unusually close year, tipping too few wins for the top team and too many for the wooden spooner. This isn't an error; it's because "How many wins will the top team have, whoever they turn out to be?" is actually a different question to "How many wins will Geelong have?" — even if we expect Geelong to finish on top!

It's highly likely that the minor premier will turn out to be a team that wins more games than people expected. But we can't know who this will be, since we can't predict who will be better than we predict.

It's the same as tossing a coin 10 times: If I'm predicting a ladder, I'd say heads and tails will each go 5-5, since this is their long-term average. I know that whichever one finishes on top will probably score 6 or more flips (75% chance), but I can't say which one that will be. I have to choose which question I want to get right: the number of wins for each team, or the number of wins of whoever finishes on top. If I choose to answer the first question, I will get a more accurate forecast of wins per team, but at the price of sacrificing some accuracy from the shape of the overall win distribution.

Q. Why is a team ranked lower even though it has more projected wins?

Usually because of percentage. When a team is projected to have "12.2 wins," this really means: "a bit more likely to have over 12 wins than under." At the end of the season, everyone will have whole numbers of wins (plus draws), and at this point, their ladder position may be determined by their percentage. Ladder projections based on tens of thousands of simulations can tally up the number of times this occurs and figure out which may matter more: an edge in projected wins or a lead in percentage.

It's also possible for this to happen because this is an aggregate Projected Ladder, combining the predictions of many different sources, and it prioritizes predicted ranks over anything else. So if, on average, the sources rank Port Adelaide higher than Richmond, that's where the Projected Ladder will place them, too. It will do this even if, on average, Richmond have higher both predicted wins and predicted percentage — which is possible because different models will have different ideas about how wins might be distributed. Fundamentally, the Projected Ladder trusts each source to interpret its own data and reach sensible conclusions about what this means in terms of likely finishing position.

It's also worth noting that there's a little more sophistication than meets the eye in how "average rank" is calculated. For sources that provide finish position estimates — those colourful bars that show how likely each team is to finish in each position — the Projected Ladder calculates true average finishing ranks, rather than relying on simple ordinals. For example, if a model says that West Coast have a 90% chance of finishing 1st and a 10% chance of finishing 2nd, their simple ordinal finishing rank is 1, while their true average finishing rank is 1.1. If they have a 60% chance of finishing 1st and a 40% chance of finishing 2nd, their simple ordinal rank is still 1, while their true average finishing rank is 1.4 — much closer to the midpoint of 1st and 2nd. In this way, the Projected Ladder is able to distinguish more precisely between teams predicted to finish close together.

Q. Why doesn't the ladder make logical sense?

Sometimes ladders don't add up to the exact right number of wins, or predict teams to finish in logically impossible places, such as tipping a team to finish 4th with one round to go when it must finish either 3rd or 5th. The natural human response is to think that if they can't get even such basic things right, they shouldn't be trusted at all. In fact, the ladder is probably prioritizing error minimization, and is likely to be more accurate, at least by that measure, than a ladder that insists on being logically possible.

After Round 15, 2022.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Melbourne 11 3 – 139.2%
+4.7
1
2
 Geelong 10 4 – 125.6%
+5.2
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 10 4 – 124.9%
+5.0
3
4
 Fremantle 10 4 – 122.6%
+4.3
5
5
 Carlton 10 4 – 114.6%
+4.1
6
6
 Sydney 9 5 – 119.5%
+5.3
4
7
 Collingwood 9 5 – 106.0%
+4.4
8
8
 Western Bulldogs 8 6 – 120.9%
+4.4
9
9
 Richmond 8 6 – 116.2%
+5.3
7
10
 St Kilda 8 6 – 107.3%
+3.9
11
11
 Gold Coast 7 7 – 110.5%
+4.9
10
12
 Port Adelaide 7 7 – 105.1%
+3.9
12
13
 Adelaide 5 9 – 85.5%
+3.4
13
14
 GWS 4 10 – 90.9%
+3.0
15
15
 Hawthorn 4 10 – 85.6%
+4.0
14
16
 Essendon 3 11 – 78.6%
+3.1
16
17
 West Coast 2 12 – 55.8%
+1.5
17
18
 North Melbourne 1 13 – 52.2%
+1.3
18