An analysis of the ripple effect of the round's results, according to the internet's
finest computer models.
[ Details ]
How It Works:
A team has a good round if it performs well, but also if other teams competing for the same ladder spots
perform poorly, since this reduces competition for those spots. This is an algorithmic ranking of the change
in each team's likely final ladder position due to the round's results.
DATA INCOMPLETE: Waiting for 1 source
1.
Geelong
Very Honourable Upset Win
defeated 
Brisbane Lions by 41 points at Gabba
Brisbane Lions by 41 points at GabbaPROJECTIONS
Top 4 72% ▲+24
3rd ▲+1.3
16.0 wins ▲+1.0
126% ▲+5.6
Gained ground against:
Hawthorn ▲+2.2 Brisbane Lions ▲+1.9 
Western Bulldogs ▲+2.0 
Fremantle ▲+0.7
2.
Melbourne
Very Honourable Upset Win
defeated Hawthorn by 39 points at M.C.G.
Hawthorn by 39 points at M.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Top 8 61% ▲+24
8th ▲+1.7
13.3 wins ▲+1.2
103% ▲+5.0
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs ▲+2.2 
Collingwood ▲+1.5 
Greater Western Sydney ▲+2.4 Brisbane Lions ▲+2.1 
Adelaide ▲+0.7 
Gold Coast ▲+0.6 
St Kilda ▲+1.0
3.
Adelaide
Very Honourable Expected Win
defeated 
North Melbourne by 68 points at Adelaide Oval
North Melbourne by 68 points at Adelaide OvalPROJECTIONS
Top 8 71% ▲+12
7th ▲+0.9
13.5 wins ▲+0.5
110% ▲+3.8
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs ▲+1.5 Collingwood ▲+0.9 Brisbane Lions ▲+1.4 Greater Western Sydney ▲+1.7 Hawthorn ▲+1.7Lost ground to:
Melbourne ▼-0.7
4.
Gold Coast
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated 
Port Adelaide by 25 points at Marrara Oval
Port Adelaide by 25 points at Marrara OvalPROJECTIONS
Top 8 72% ▲+11
6th ▲+0.8
13.7 wins ▲+0.6
110% ▲+1.2
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs ▲+1.6 Brisbane Lions ▲+1.5 Collingwood ▲+0.9 Hawthorn ▲+1.7 Greater Western Sydney ▲+1.8Lost ground to:
Melbourne ▼-0.6
5.
Sydney
Dishonourable Expected Win
defeated Collingwood by 6 points at S.C.G.
Collingwood by 6 points at S.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Top 2 74% ▲+10
1st ▲+0.3
17.7 wins ▲+0.4
137% ▼-1.2
Gained ground against:
Hawthorn ▲+1.5 Brisbane Lions ▲+1.3Lost ground to:
Geelong ▼-0.6
6.
Fremantle
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated 
Essendon by 43 points at M.C.G.
Essendon by 43 points at M.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Top 2 56% ▲+8
2nd ▲+0.4
17.1 wins ▲+0.3
124% ▲+1.2
Gained ground against:
Hawthorn ▲+1.5 Brisbane Lions ▲+1.2Lost ground to:
Geelong ▼-0.7
7.
Carlton
Honourable Upset Win
defeated Western Bulldogs by 12 points at Docklands
Western Bulldogs by 12 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Bottom 4 51% ▼-22
15th ▲+0.8
7.8 wins ▲+1.0
89% ▲+3.0
Gained ground against:
North Melbourne ▲+1.5 Essendon ▲+1.3 Port Adelaide ▲+1.4 Greater Western Sydney ▲+2.2
8.
West Coast
Honourable Upset Win
defeated Greater Western Sydney by 17 points at Perth Stadium
Greater Western Sydney by 17 points at Perth StadiumPROJECTIONS
Bottom 2 37% ▼-19
16th ▲+0.6
6.3 wins ▲+0.9
68% ▲+3.0
Gained ground against:
Essendon ▲+1.2 
Richmond ▲+1.2
9.
St Kilda
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated Richmond by 36 points at Docklands
Richmond by 36 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Top 8 27% ▲+3
11th ▲+0.4
11.3 wins ▲+0.2
105% ▲+0.5
Gained ground against:
Greater Western Sydney ▲+1.4 Western Bulldogs ▲+1.2 Collingwood ▲+0.5 North Melbourne ▲+0.8Lost ground to:
Melbourne ▼-1.0
10.
Richmond
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to St Kilda by 36 points at Docklands
St Kilda by 36 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Spoon 69% ▲+13
18th ▼-0.2
3.7 wins ▼-0.2
63% ▼-0.2
Lost ground to:
West Coast ▼-1.2
11.
Essendon
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Fremantle by 43 points at M.C.G.
Fremantle by 43 points at M.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Bottom 2 59% ▲+16
17th ▼-0.3
5.2 wins ▼-0.3
75% ▼-0.5
Lost ground to:
West Coast ▼-1.2 Carlton ▼-1.3
12.
Port Adelaide
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Gold Coast by 25 points at Marrara Oval
Gold Coast by 25 points at Marrara OvalPROJECTIONS
Top 8 5% ▼-2
13th ▼-0.4
8.9 wins ▼-0.4
100% ▼-0.5
Gained ground against:
Greater Western Sydney ▲+0.8 North Melbourne ▲+0.1Lost ground to:
Carlton ▼-1.4 St Kilda ▼-0.6
13.
Collingwood
Honourable Expected Loss
lost to Sydney by 6 points at S.C.G.
Sydney by 6 points at S.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Top 8 44% ▼-7
9th ▼-0.5
12.1 wins ▼-0.3
106% ▼-0.1
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs ▲+0.7 Greater Western Sydney ▲+0.8Lost ground to:
Melbourne ▼-1.5 Adelaide ▼-0.9 Gold Coast ▼-0.9 St Kilda ▼-0.5
14.
North Melbourne
Very Dishonourable Expected Loss
lost to Adelaide by 68 points at Adelaide Oval
Adelaide by 68 points at Adelaide OvalPROJECTIONS
Top 8 4% ▼-4
14th ▼-0.7
8.9 wins ▼-0.5
91% ▼-3.1
Gained ground against:
Greater Western Sydney ▲+0.6Lost ground to:
Carlton ▼-1.5 Port Adelaide ▼-0.1 St Kilda ▼-0.8
15.
Greater Western Sydney
Dishonourable Upset Loss
lost to West Coast by 17 points at Perth Stadium
West Coast by 17 points at Perth StadiumPROJECTIONS
Top 8 7% ▼-12
12th ▼-1.3
9.8 wins ▼-1.2
92% ▼-4.4
Lost ground to:
St Kilda ▼-1.4 Port Adelaide ▼-0.8 Melbourne ▼-2.4 North Melbourne ▼-0.6 Carlton ▼-2.2
16.
Western Bulldogs
Dishonourable Upset Loss
lost to Carlton by 12 points at Docklands
Carlton by 12 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Top 8 36% ▼-23
10th ▼-1.3
12.0 wins ▼-1.0
99% ▼-3.3
Lost ground to:
Melbourne ▼-2.2 Adelaide ▼-1.5 Gold Coast ▼-1.6 Collingwood ▼-0.7 St Kilda ▼-1.2
17.
Brisbane Lions
Very Dishonourable Upset Loss
lost to Geelong by 41 points at Gabba
Geelong by 41 points at GabbaPROJECTIONS
Top 4 31% ▼-20
5th ▼-1.1
14.2 wins ▼-0.9
118% ▼-5.4
Gained ground against:
Hawthorn ▲+0.3Lost ground to:
Geelong ▼-1.9 Gold Coast ▼-1.5 Melbourne ▼-2.1 Adelaide ▼-1.4 Fremantle ▼-1.2
18.
Hawthorn
Very Dishonourable Upset Loss
lost to Melbourne by 39 points at M.C.G.
Melbourne by 39 points at M.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Top 2 18% ▼-26
4th ▼-1.3
15.3 wins ▼-1.2
119% ▼-6.7
Lost ground to:
Geelong ▼-2.2 Fremantle ▼-1.5 Sydney ▼-1.5 Gold Coast ▼-1.7 Adelaide ▼-1.7 Melbourne ▼-2.4Key
| HONOURABLE | Margin better than expected |
| ACCEPTABLE | Margin around expectation |
| DISHONOURABLE | Margin worse than expected |
| EXPECTED | Game won by favourite |
| CONTESTED | Neither team heavily favoured pre-match |
| UPSET | Game won by underdog |
About
To be ranked highly, a team should:
Win — ideally in an upset. It's always better to win, but computer models factor in the chances of each win already, and their ladder projections don't change much when teams win games they're expected to. The numbers do change when teams pull off an upset, since this accrues a win that wasn't previously accounted for.
Have other teams fighting for the same spots on the ladder lose, ideally in upsets. This is just as important, since it doesn't actually matter how many games you win — you just need more than your competition. When other teams projected to finish around the same area of the ladder lose, it makes it easier to take their spot (or stop them from taking yours). When they lose in upsets, it's especially good, since this means they are likely to exert less competitive pressure on higher ladder spots than previously believed.
Be more competitive than expected. Regardless of whether you win or lose, when a team exceeds expectations, it will be considered more likely to win in the future, and its projected numbers will shift upward accordingly. This is most visible in projected percentages, which almost always rise after a competitive performance, regardless of whether the game was won or lost.
Everything is relative! If a team pulls off a terrific upset win but so do other teams competing for the same ladder positions, no-one has gained much.
In general, you always want a team to lose if it is likely to finish near your team on the ladder, and to drop form if your team is fixtured to play them in the future. You don't care whether teams win or lose if they aren't competing for the same ladder positions, although it is helpful if they gain form ahead of playing your competitors.
Gaining/Losing Ground
Numbers beside each team indicate the change in relative projected wins. For example, if Brisbane Lions show "Gained ground against: St Kilda ▲-1.1," this means that the Lions have effectively gained 1.1 projected wins this round compared to the Saints — most likely a combination of the Lions now being projected to win more games than previously believed plus the Saints being projected to win fewer.
These lists are in approximate order of significance, which is a combined estimate of both how large the change is and how likely it is to affect this team's finishing position.
Algorithm v0.6
This analysis uses an algorithm to rate the importance of different movements, so that a team moving from 3rd to 2nd is considered more significant than a team moving from 13th to 12th. In particular, it considers:
Distance between teams before and after the round
Team rank before and after the round
Whether the team has moved into or out of the Top 2/4/8
Rounds remaining for teams to close gaps