Who Won Round 10, 2019? Updated .

An analysis of the ripple effect of the round's results, according to the internet's best computer models. [ Details ]

How It Works: A team has a good round if it performs well, but also if other teams competing for the same ladder spots perform poorly, since this reduces competition for those spots. This is an algorithmic ranking of the change in each team's likely final ladder position due to the round's results.

Squiggle
The Arc
Matter of Stats
Footy Maths Institute
PlusSixOne
Graft
Stattraction
Live Ladders
Swinburne
Massey Ratings
AFLalytics
AFL Lab
ROUND INCOMPLETE: 2 games remaining
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
1.
Hawthorn
Honourable Contested Win
defeated Port Adelaide by 31 points at York Park
PROJECTIONS
9th +1.0
11.3 wins +0.6
105% +2.0
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide +1.3 Essendon +0.9 Western Bulldogs +1.1 Adelaide +1.2 Brisbane Lions +0.7 Melbourne +1.0
2.
West Coast
Honourable Upset Win
defeated Adelaide by 12 points at Adelaide Oval
PROJECTIONS
5th +1.0
13.4 wins +0.5
103% +2.4
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide +1.2 Adelaide +1.0 Brisbane Lions +0.5 Richmond +0.3
St Kilda
vs Carlton by 16 points at Marvel Stadium
PROJECTIONS
11th +0.7
10.3 wins +0.4
95% +1.6
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs +0.9 Essendon +0.7 Port Adelaide +1.1 Melbourne +0.8 Fremantle +0.4
4.
Collingwood
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated Sydney by 7 points at S.C.G.
PROJECTIONS
2nd (no change)
16.2 wins +0.3
126% +0.3
5.
Geelong
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated Gold Coast by 27 points at Carrara
PROJECTIONS
1st (no change)
17.9 wins +0.2
136% -0.4
6.
Greater Western Sydney
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated Melbourne by 26 points at M.C.G.
PROJECTIONS
3rd (no change)
14.9 wins +0.3
127% +0.6
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide +1.0
Lost ground to:
West Coast -0.2
7.
North Melbourne
Honourable Upset Win
defeated Western Bulldogs by 25 points at Marvel Stadium
PROJECTIONS
16th (no change)
7.4 wins +0.5
88% +2.2
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs +1.0 Sydney +0.8 Gold Coast +0.7
8.
Richmond
Acceptable Contested Win
defeated Essendon by 23 points at M.C.G.
PROJECTIONS
4th (no change)
14.4 wins +0.2
112% +0.2
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide +0.9
Lost ground to:
West Coast -0.3
Fremantle
vs Brisbane Lions at Perth Stadium
PROJECTIONS
12th +0.7
9.9 wins (no change)
100% -0.2
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs +0.5 Port Adelaide +0.7 Essendon +0.2 Melbourne +0.4
Lost ground to:
St Kilda -0.4 Hawthorn -0.6
Brisbane Lions
vs Fremantle at Perth Stadium
PROJECTIONS
7th (no change)
12.1 wins -0.1
98% -0.3
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide +0.6 Adelaide +0.5
Lost ground to:
Hawthorn -0.7 West Coast -0.5 St Kilda -0.5
Carlton
vs St Kilda by 16 points at Marvel Stadium
PROJECTIONS
18th (no change)
4.7 wins (no change)
78% +0.8
12.
Gold Coast
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Geelong by 27 points at Carrara
PROJECTIONS
17th (no change)
6.0 wins -0.2
74% -0.2
Lost ground to:
North Melbourne -0.7
13.
Sydney
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Collingwood by 7 points at S.C.G.
PROJECTIONS
15th (no change)
8.0 wins -0.3
89% -0.3
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs +0.2
Lost ground to:
North Melbourne -0.8 St Kilda -0.7
14.
Essendon
Acceptable Contested Loss
lost to Richmond by 23 points at M.C.G.
PROJECTIONS
10th (no change)
10.3 wins -0.3
98% -0.6
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide +0.4 Western Bulldogs +0.3
Lost ground to:
Hawthorn -0.9 St Kilda -0.7 Fremantle -0.2
15.
Melbourne
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Greater Western Sydney by 26 points at M.C.G.
PROJECTIONS
14th (no change)
8.6 wins -0.4
87% -1.6
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs +0.1
Lost ground to:
St Kilda -0.8 Fremantle -0.4 Hawthorn -1.0 North Melbourne -0.8
16.
Adelaide
Dishonourable Upset Loss
lost to West Coast by 12 points at Adelaide Oval
PROJECTIONS
6th -0.3
11.8 wins -0.6
108% -3.2
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide +0.1
Lost ground to:
Hawthorn -1.2 West Coast -1.0 Brisbane Lions -0.5 St Kilda -1.0 Fremantle -0.6
17.
Western Bulldogs
Dishonourable Upset Loss
lost to North Melbourne by 25 points at Marvel Stadium
PROJECTIONS
13th -1.0
9.0 wins -0.5
93% -2.6
Lost ground to:
Fremantle -0.5 St Kilda -0.9 Melbourne -0.1 Hawthorn -1.1 Sydney -0.2 Essendon -0.3 North Melbourne -1.0
18.
Port Adelaide
Dishonourable Contested Loss
lost to Hawthorn by 31 points at York Park
PROJECTIONS
8th -2.0
11.5 wins -0.7
107% -2.0
Lost ground to:
Brisbane Lions -0.6 Hawthorn -1.3 Adelaide -0.1 West Coast -1.2 St Kilda -1.1 Essendon -0.4 Fremantle -0.7 Richmond -0.9

Key

HONOURABLE Margin better than expected
ACCEPTABLE Margin around expectation
DISHONOURABLE Margin worse than expected
EXPECTED Game won by favourite
CONTESTED Neither team heavily favoured pre-match
UPSET Game won by underdog

About

To be ranked highly, a team should:

  • Win — ideally in an upset. It's always better to win, but computer models factor in the chances of each win already, and their ladder projections don't change much when teams win games they're expected to. The numbers do change when teams pull off an upset, since this accrues a win that wasn't previously accounted for.

  • Have other teams fighting for the same spots on the ladder lose, ideally in upsets. This is just as important, since it doesn't actually matter how many games you win — you just need more than your competition. When other teams projected to finish around the same area of the ladder lose, it makes it easier to take their spot (or stop them from taking yours). When they lose in upsets, it's especially good, since this means they are likely to exert less competitive pressure on higher ladder spots than previously believed.

  • Be more competitive than expected. Regardless of whether you win or lose, when a team exceeds expectations, it will be considered more likely to win in the future, and its projected numbers will shift upward accordingly. This is most visible in projected percentages, which almost always rise after a competitive performance, regardless of whether the game was won or lost.

Everything is relative! If a team pulls off a terrific upset win but so do other teams competing for the same ladder positions, no-one has gained much.

In general, you always want a team to lose if it is likely to finish near your team on the ladder, and to drop form if your team is fixtured to play them in the future. You don't care whether teams win or lose if they aren't competing for the same ladder positions, although it is helpful if they gain form ahead of playing your competitors.

Gaining/Losing Ground

Numbers beside each team indicate the change in relative projected wins. For example, if Brisbane Lions show "Gained ground against: St Kilda -1.1," this means that the Lions have effectively gained 1.1 projected wins this round compared to the Saints — most likely a combination of the Lions now being projected to win more games than previously believed plus the Saints being projected to win fewer.

These lists are in approximate order of significance, which is a combined estimate of both how large the change is and how likely it is to affect this team's finishing position.