Who Won Round 23, 2019?
An analysis of the ripple effect of the round's results, according to the internet's
finest computer models.
[ Details ]
How It Works:
A team has a good round if it performs well, but also if other teams competing for the same ladder spots
perform poorly, since this reduces competition for those spots. This is an algorithmic ranking of the change
in each team's likely final ladder position due to the round's results.
To be ranked highly, a team should:
Win — ideally in an upset. It's always better to win, but
computer models factor in the chances of each win already,
and their ladder projections don't change much when teams
win games they're expected to. The numbers do
change when teams pull off an upset, since this accrues a win that
wasn't previously accounted for.
Have other teams fighting for the same spots on the ladder lose,
ideally in upsets. This is just as important, since it doesn't actually
matter how many games you win — you just need more than your competition.
When other teams projected to finish around the same area of the ladder
lose, it makes it easier to take their spot (or stop them from taking yours).
When they lose in upsets, it's especially good, since this means they are
likely to exert less competitive pressure on higher ladder spots than
previously believed.
Be more competitive than expected. Regardless of whether you win
or lose, when a team exceeds expectations, it will be considered more likely to
win in the future, and its projected numbers will shift upward accordingly.
This is most visible in projected percentages, which almost always rise
after a competitive performance, regardless of whether the game was won or lost.
Everything is relative! If a team pulls off a terrific upset win but so do
other teams competing for the same ladder positions, no-one has gained much.
In general, you always want a team to lose if it is likely to finish near your team on the ladder,
and to drop form if your team is fixtured to play them in the future. You don't care whether teams
win or lose if they aren't competing for the same ladder positions, although it is helpful if they
gain form ahead of playing your competitors.
Numbers beside each team indicate the change in relative projected
wins. For example, if Brisbane Lions show "Gained ground against:
St Kilda ▲-1.1," this means that the Lions have effectively gained 1.1
projected wins this round compared to the Saints — most likely
a combination of the Lions now being projected to win
more games than previously believed plus the Saints being projected to win fewer.
These lists are in approximate order of significance, which is a combined estimate
of both how large the change is and how likely it is to affect this team's finishing position.
This analysis uses an algorithm to rate the importance of different movements, so that
a team moving from 3rd to 2nd is considered more significant
than a team moving from 13th to 12th. In particular, it considers:
Distance between teams before and after the round
Team rank before and after the round
Whether the team has moved into or out of the Top 2/4/8
Rounds remaining for teams to close gaps
Carlton by 68 points at Kardinia Park
Brisbane Lions by 27 points at M.C.G.
Essendon by 11 points at M.C.G.
West Coast by 38 points at Perth Stadium
Adelaide by 34 points at Eureka Stadium
Gold Coast by 72 points at Carrara
St Kilda by 45 points at S.C.G.
Fremantle by 43 points at Adelaide Oval
Melbourne by 5 points at Bellerive Oval
Greater Western Sydney by 72 points at Carrara
Geelong by 68 points at Kardinia Park
Port Adelaide by 43 points at Adelaide Oval
North Melbourne by 5 points at Bellerive Oval
Sydney by 45 points at S.C.G.
Western Bulldogs by 34 points at Eureka Stadium
Collingwood by 11 points at M.C.G.
Richmond by 27 points at M.C.G.
Hawthorn by 38 points at Perth Stadium
Key
HONOURABLE
Margin better than expected
ACCEPTABLE
Margin around expectation
DISHONOURABLE
Margin worse than expected
EXPECTED
Game won by favourite
CONTESTED
Neither team heavily favoured pre-match
UPSET
Game won by underdog
About
Gaining/Losing Ground
Algorithm v0.6