An analysis of the ripple effect of the round's results, according to the internet's
finest computer models.
[ Details ]
How It Works:
A team has a good round if it performs well, but also if other teams competing for the same ladder spots
perform poorly, since this reduces competition for those spots. This is an algorithmic ranking of the change
in each team's likely final ladder position due to the round's results.
DATA INCOMPLETE: Waiting for 5 sources
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
1.
Adelaide
Honourable Upset Win
defeated 
Western Bulldogs by 11 points at Docklands
Western Bulldogs by 11 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Top 2 49% ▲+27
2nd ▲+1.1
16.3 wins ▲+0.7
135% ▲+1.4
Gained ground against:
Geelong ▲+1.4 Western Bulldogs ▲+1.4 
Hawthorn ▲+1.2 
Brisbane Lions ▲+0.2 
Gold Coast ▲+0.2
2.
Greater Western Sydney
Honourable Contested Win
defeated Geelong by 26 points at Sydney Showground
Geelong by 26 points at Sydney ShowgroundPROJECTIONS
Top 8 82% ▲+13
7th ▲+0.9
14.5 wins ▲+0.8
112% ▲+3.0
Gained ground against:
Hawthorn ▲+1.4 Western Bulldogs ▲+1.6 
Fremantle ▲+0.3 Geelong ▲+1.5
3.
Brisbane Lions
Honourable Expected Win
defeated 
Carlton by 37 points at Docklands
Carlton by 37 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Top 4 63% ▲+12
4th ▲+0.7
15.9 wins ▲+0.4
115% ▲+1.8
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs ▲+1.2 Geelong ▲+1.1 Hawthorn ▲+1.0Lost ground to:
Adelaide ▼-0.2 Greater Western Sydney ▼-0.4
4.
Gold Coast
Acceptable Contested Win
defeated 
Collingwood by 6 points at Carrara
Collingwood by 6 points at CarraraPROJECTIONS
Top 4 36% ▲+8
5th ▲+0.5
15.2 wins ▲+0.4
120% ▲+0.1
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs ▲+1.2 Hawthorn ▲+1.0 Geelong ▲+1.2Lost ground to:
Greater Western Sydney ▼-0.4 Adelaide ▼-0.2
5.
Fremantle
Acceptable Contested Win
defeated Hawthorn by 13 points at Perth Stadium
Hawthorn by 13 points at Perth StadiumPROJECTIONS
Top 8 63% ▲+7
9th ▲+0.3
14.0 wins ▲+0.5
108% ▲+0.9
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs ▲+1.3 Hawthorn ▲+1.0 Geelong ▲+1.2Lost ground to:
Greater Western Sydney ▼-0.3
6.
Melbourne
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated 
North Melbourne by 36 points at M.C.G.
North Melbourne by 36 points at M.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Bottom 6 51% ▼-16
12th ▲+0.6
8.9 wins ▲+0.3
92% ▲+1.2
Gained ground against:
Carlton ▲+0.7 
St Kilda ▲+0.9 
Essendon ▲+1.0
7.
Richmond
Honourable Upset Win
defeated Essendon by 9 points at M.C.G.
Essendon by 9 points at M.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Bottom 2 64% ▼-17
17th ▲+0.3
5.5 wins ▲+0.8
67% ▲+0.7
Gained ground against:
North Melbourne ▲+1.0 
West Coast ▲+0.9
8.
Sydney
Acceptable Contested Win
defeated St Kilda by 5 points at Docklands
St Kilda by 5 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Bottom 8 24% ▼-12
10th ▲+0.3
11.4 wins ▲+0.4
98% ▲+0.1
Gained ground against:
Carlton ▲+0.8 St Kilda ▲+1.0
9.
Port Adelaide
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated West Coast by 26 points at Adelaide Oval
West Coast by 26 points at Adelaide OvalPROJECTIONS
Bottom 6 23% ▼-9
11th ▲+0.2
10.1 wins ▲+0.2
89% ▼-0.1
Gained ground against:
Carlton ▲+0.6 St Kilda ▲+0.7 Essendon ▲+0.8Lost ground to:
Melbourne ▼-0.1
10.
West Coast
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Port Adelaide by 26 points at Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide by 26 points at Adelaide OvalPROJECTIONS
Spoon 95% ▲+9
18th ▼-0.1
2.3 wins ▼-0.2
65% (no change)
11.
North Melbourne
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Melbourne by 36 points at M.C.G.
Melbourne by 36 points at M.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Bottom 2 32% ▲+15
16th ▼-0.2
6.0 wins ▼-0.3
77% ▼-0.5
Lost ground to:
Richmond ▼-1.0
12.
Carlton
Dishonourable Expected Loss
lost to Brisbane Lions by 37 points at Docklands
Brisbane Lions by 37 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Bottom 8 94% ▲+8
13th ▼-0.3
8.7 wins ▼-0.4
94% ▼-1.4
Gained ground against:
Essendon ▲+0.2 St Kilda ▲+0.2Lost ground to:
Melbourne ▼-0.7 Port Adelaide ▼-0.6
13.
St Kilda
Acceptable Contested Loss
lost to Sydney by 5 points at Docklands
Sydney by 5 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Bottom 6 82% ▲+14
14th ▼-0.5
7.9 wins ▼-0.5
89% ▼-0.3
Lost ground to:
Melbourne ▼-0.9 Port Adelaide ▼-0.7
14.
Essendon
Dishonourable Upset Loss
lost to Richmond by 9 points at M.C.G.
Richmond by 9 points at M.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Bottom 4 56% ▲+12
15th ▼-0.5
7.7 wins ▼-0.6
76% ▼-1.3
Lost ground to:
Melbourne ▼-1.0 Richmond ▼-1.4
15.
Hawthorn
Acceptable Contested Loss
lost to Fremantle by 13 points at Perth Stadium
Fremantle by 13 points at Perth StadiumPROJECTIONS
Top 4 11% ▼-13
8th ▼-1.0
14.2 wins ▼-0.5
113% ▼-1.1
Gained ground against:
Western Bulldogs ▲+0.2Lost ground to:
Greater Western Sydney ▼-1.4 Gold Coast ▼-1.0 Fremantle ▼-1.0 Brisbane Lions ▼-1.0 Adelaide ▼-1.2
16.
Collingwood
Acceptable Contested Loss
lost to Gold Coast by 6 points at Carrara
Gold Coast by 6 points at CarraraPROJECTIONS
Top 2 84% ▼-4
1st ▼-0.2
18.0 wins ▼-0.6
132% ▼-0.9
Gained ground against:
Geelong ▲+0.2Lost ground to:
Adelaide ▼-1.2 Brisbane Lions ▼-1.0
17.
Western Bulldogs
Dishonourable Upset Loss
lost to Adelaide by 11 points at Docklands
Adelaide by 11 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Top 4 19% ▼-23
6th ▼-1.3
14.3 wins ▼-0.8
130% ▼-2.7
Lost ground to:
Greater Western Sydney ▼-1.6 Gold Coast ▼-1.2 Fremantle ▼-1.3 Brisbane Lions ▼-1.2 Adelaide ▼-1.4 Hawthorn ▼-0.2
18.
Geelong
Dishonourable Contested Loss
lost to Greater Western Sydney by 26 points at Sydney Showground
Greater Western Sydney by 26 points at Sydney ShowgroundPROJECTIONS
Top 2 21% ▼-29
3rd ▼-0.9
15.8 wins ▼-0.7
131% ▼-3.8
Lost ground to:
Adelaide ▼-1.4 Brisbane Lions ▼-1.1 Gold Coast ▼-1.2 Greater Western Sydney ▼-1.5 Fremantle ▼-1.2Key
| HONOURABLE | Margin better than expected |
| ACCEPTABLE | Margin around expectation |
| DISHONOURABLE | Margin worse than expected |
| EXPECTED | Game won by favourite |
| CONTESTED | Neither team heavily favoured pre-match |
| UPSET | Game won by underdog |
About
To be ranked highly, a team should:
Win — ideally in an upset. It's always better to win, but computer models factor in the chances of each win already, and their ladder projections don't change much when teams win games they're expected to. The numbers do change when teams pull off an upset, since this accrues a win that wasn't previously accounted for.
Have other teams fighting for the same spots on the ladder lose, ideally in upsets. This is just as important, since it doesn't actually matter how many games you win — you just need more than your competition. When other teams projected to finish around the same area of the ladder lose, it makes it easier to take their spot (or stop them from taking yours). When they lose in upsets, it's especially good, since this means they are likely to exert less competitive pressure on higher ladder spots than previously believed.
Be more competitive than expected. Regardless of whether you win or lose, when a team exceeds expectations, it will be considered more likely to win in the future, and its projected numbers will shift upward accordingly. This is most visible in projected percentages, which almost always rise after a competitive performance, regardless of whether the game was won or lost.
Everything is relative! If a team pulls off a terrific upset win but so do other teams competing for the same ladder positions, no-one has gained much.
In general, you always want a team to lose if it is likely to finish near your team on the ladder, and to drop form if your team is fixtured to play them in the future. You don't care whether teams win or lose if they aren't competing for the same ladder positions, although it is helpful if they gain form ahead of playing your competitors.
Gaining/Losing Ground
Numbers beside each team indicate the change in relative projected wins. For example, if Brisbane Lions show "Gained ground against: St Kilda ▲-1.1," this means that the Lions have effectively gained 1.1 projected wins this round compared to the Saints — most likely a combination of the Lions now being projected to win more games than previously believed plus the Saints being projected to win fewer.
These lists are in approximate order of significance, which is a combined estimate of both how large the change is and how likely it is to affect this team's finishing position.
Algorithm v0.6
This analysis uses an algorithm to rate the importance of different movements, so that a team moving from 3rd to 2nd is considered more significant than a team moving from 13th to 12th. In particular, it considers:
Distance between teams before and after the round
Team rank before and after the round
Whether the team has moved into or out of the Top 2/4/8
Rounds remaining for teams to close gaps