An analysis of the ripple effect of the round's results, according to the internet's
finest computer models.
[ Details ]
How It Works:
A team has a good round if it performs well, but also if other teams competing for the same ladder spots
perform poorly, since this reduces competition for those spots. This is an algorithmic ranking of the change
in each team's likely final ladder position due to the round's results.
DATA INCOMPLETE: Waiting for 2 sources
1.
Brisbane Lions
Very Honourable Expected Win
defeated 
Gold Coast by 73 points at Carrara
Gold Coast by 73 points at CarraraPROJECTIONS
Top 4 64% ▲+16
3rd ▲+0.9
15.1 wins ▲+0.8
126% ▲+6.9
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide ▲+1.6 
Geelong ▲+0.5 
West Coast ▲+0.8 
Richmond ▲+0.7
2.
Western Bulldogs
Honourable Contested Win
defeated Port Adelaide by 19 points at Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide by 19 points at Adelaide OvalPROJECTIONS
Top 2 66% ▲+11
1st ▲+0.5
17.0 wins ▲+0.8
133% ▲+2.7
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide ▲+1.6 
Melbourne ▲+0.3
3.
Sydney
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated 
Collingwood by 30 points at S.C.G.
Collingwood by 30 points at S.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Top 8 77% ▲+11
7th ▲+0.7
13.2 wins ▲+0.6
108% ▲+2.3
Gained ground against:
Richmond ▲+0.5 West Coast ▲+0.5 Port Adelaide ▲+1.3
4.
Melbourne
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated 
Carlton by 26 points at M.C.G.
Carlton by 26 points at M.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Top 4 88% ▲+4
2nd ▲+0.2
17.3 wins ▲+0.5
126% ▲+2.4
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide ▲+1.3Lost ground to:
Western Bulldogs ▼-0.3 Brisbane Lions ▼-0.4
5.
Geelong
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated 
St Kilda by 21 points at Docklands
St Kilda by 21 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Top 8 94% ▲+3
4th ▲+0.2
14.6 wins ▲+0.3
125% ▼-0.1
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide ▲+1.1 West Coast ▲+0.3Lost ground to:
Brisbane Lions ▼-0.5 Sydney ▼-0.2
6.
Essendon
Acceptable Contested Win
defeated 
Fremantle by 7 points at Docklands
Fremantle by 7 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Bottom 6 39% ▼-12
13th ▲+0.7
9.2 wins ▲+0.4
97% ▼-0.4
Gained ground against:
Gold Coast ▲+1.4 Carlton ▲+0.8 Fremantle ▲+0.7 St Kilda ▲+0.7 Collingwood ▲+0.9
7.
North Melbourne
Honourable Upset Win
defeated 
Hawthorn by 7 points at York Park
Hawthorn by 7 points at York ParkPROJECTIONS
Spoon 75% ▼-11
18th ▲+0.2
3.6 wins ▲+0.9
65% ▲+1.5
Gained ground against:
Hawthorn ▲+1.8
8.
Greater Western Sydney
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Richmond by 4 points at Docklands
Richmond by 4 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Top 4 2% ▼-1
9th ▲+0.2
10.4 wins (no change)
100% ▲+2.3
Gained ground against:
Carlton ▲+0.4 St Kilda ▲+0.3 Gold Coast ▲+0.9 Fremantle ▲+0.3Lost ground to:
Essendon ▼-0.4
9.
Adelaide
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to West Coast by 30 points at Perth Stadium
West Coast by 30 points at Perth StadiumPROJECTIONS
Bottom 4 54% ▼-5
15th ▲+0.2
7.5 wins ▼-0.1
84% ▲+0.9
Gained ground against:
Gold Coast ▲+0.9 Hawthorn ▲+0.8 Collingwood ▲+0.4Lost ground to:
Essendon ▼-0.5
10.
Richmond
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated Greater Western Sydney by 4 points at Docklands
Greater Western Sydney by 4 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Top 4 19% ▼-3
8th (no change)
13.0 wins ▲+0.1
111% ▼-2.5
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide ▲+0.9Lost ground to:
Sydney ▼-0.5 Brisbane Lions ▼-0.7
11.
West Coast
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated Adelaide by 30 points at Perth Stadium
Adelaide by 30 points at Perth StadiumPROJECTIONS
Top 4 21% ▼-4
6th ▼-0.1
13.3 wins (no change)
108% ▼-1.6
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide ▲+0.8Lost ground to:
Sydney ▼-0.5 Brisbane Lions ▼-0.8
12.
Fremantle
Acceptable Contested Loss
lost to Essendon by 7 points at Docklands
Essendon by 7 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Top 8 15% ▼-4
12th ▼-0.1
9.7 wins ▼-0.3
94% ▲+1.0
Gained ground against:
Gold Coast ▲+0.7 Carlton ▲+0.1Lost ground to:
Essendon ▼-0.7 Greater Western Sydney ▼-0.3
13.
Collingwood
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Sydney by 30 points at S.C.G.
Sydney by 30 points at S.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Top 8 2% ▼-1
16th ▼-0.3
6.6 wins ▼-0.5
87% ▼-2.0
Gained ground against:
Gold Coast ▲+0.5 Hawthorn ▲+0.4Lost ground to:
Adelaide ▼-0.4 Essendon ▼-0.9
14.
St Kilda
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Geelong by 21 points at Docklands
Geelong by 21 points at DocklandsPROJECTIONS
Top 8 15% ▼-5
11th ▼-0.3
9.9 wins ▼-0.4
90% ▼-0.4
Gained ground against:
Gold Coast ▲+0.6Lost ground to:
Essendon ▼-0.7 Greater Western Sydney ▼-0.3
15.
Carlton
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Melbourne by 26 points at M.C.G.
Melbourne by 26 points at M.C.G.PROJECTIONS
Top 8 18% ▼-6
10th ▼-0.4
9.9 wins ▼-0.4
100% ▼-1.9
Gained ground against:
Gold Coast ▲+0.6Lost ground to:
Essendon ▼-0.8 Greater Western Sydney ▼-0.4 Fremantle ▼-0.1
16.
Hawthorn
Dishonourable Upset Loss
lost to North Melbourne by 7 points at York Park
North Melbourne by 7 points at York ParkPROJECTIONS
Bottom 2 52% ▲+12
17th ▼-0.6
5.6 wins ▼-0.9
78% ▼-1.8
Lost ground to:
Adelaide ▼-0.8 Collingwood ▼-0.4 North Melbourne ▼-1.8
17.
Gold Coast
Very Dishonourable Expected Loss
lost to Brisbane Lions by 73 points at Carrara
Brisbane Lions by 73 points at CarraraPROJECTIONS
Top 8 3% ▼-6
14th ▼-1.1
7.8 wins ▼-1.0
88% ▼-5.6
Lost ground to:
Essendon ▼-1.4 Adelaide ▼-0.9 Collingwood ▼-0.5 Fremantle ▼-0.7
18.
Port Adelaide
Dishonourable Contested Loss
lost to Western Bulldogs by 19 points at Adelaide Oval
Western Bulldogs by 19 points at Adelaide OvalPROJECTIONS
Top 4 42% ▼-20
5th ▼-1.1
14.2 wins ▼-0.8
117% ▼-3.1
Lost ground to:
Brisbane Lions ▼-1.6 Geelong ▼-1.1 Sydney ▼-1.3 West Coast ▼-0.8 Western Bulldogs ▼-1.6 Richmond ▼-0.9Key
| HONOURABLE | Margin better than expected |
| ACCEPTABLE | Margin around expectation |
| DISHONOURABLE | Margin worse than expected |
| EXPECTED | Game won by favourite |
| CONTESTED | Neither team heavily favoured pre-match |
| UPSET | Game won by underdog |
About
To be ranked highly, a team should:
Win — ideally in an upset. It's always better to win, but computer models factor in the chances of each win already, and their ladder projections don't change much when teams win games they're expected to. The numbers do change when teams pull off an upset, since this accrues a win that wasn't previously accounted for.
Have other teams fighting for the same spots on the ladder lose, ideally in upsets. This is just as important, since it doesn't actually matter how many games you win — you just need more than your competition. When other teams projected to finish around the same area of the ladder lose, it makes it easier to take their spot (or stop them from taking yours). When they lose in upsets, it's especially good, since this means they are likely to exert less competitive pressure on higher ladder spots than previously believed.
Be more competitive than expected. Regardless of whether you win or lose, when a team exceeds expectations, it will be considered more likely to win in the future, and its projected numbers will shift upward accordingly. This is most visible in projected percentages, which almost always rise after a competitive performance, regardless of whether the game was won or lost.
Everything is relative! If a team pulls off a terrific upset win but so do other teams competing for the same ladder positions, no-one has gained much.
In general, you always want a team to lose if it is likely to finish near your team on the ladder, and to drop form if your team is fixtured to play them in the future. You don't care whether teams win or lose if they aren't competing for the same ladder positions, although it is helpful if they gain form ahead of playing your competitors.
Gaining/Losing Ground
Numbers beside each team indicate the change in relative projected wins. For example, if Brisbane Lions show "Gained ground against: St Kilda ▲-1.1," this means that the Lions have effectively gained 1.1 projected wins this round compared to the Saints — most likely a combination of the Lions now being projected to win more games than previously believed plus the Saints being projected to win fewer.
These lists are in approximate order of significance, which is a combined estimate of both how large the change is and how likely it is to affect this team's finishing position.
Algorithm v0.6
This analysis uses an algorithm to rate the importance of different movements, so that a team moving from 3rd to 2nd is considered more significant than a team moving from 13th to 12th. In particular, it considers:
Distance between teams before and after the round
Team rank before and after the round
Whether the team has moved into or out of the Top 2/4/8
Rounds remaining for teams to close gaps