Who Won Round 17, 2019? Updated

An analysis of the ripple effect of the round's results, according to the internet's finest computer models. [ Details ]

How It Works: A team has a good round if it performs well, but also if other teams competing for the same ladder spots perform poorly, since this reduces competition for those spots. This is an algorithmic ranking of the change in each team's likely final ladder position due to the round's results.

Squiggle
The Arc
Matter of Stats
Footy Maths Institute
PlusSixOne
Graft
Stattraction
Live Ladders
Swinburne
AFLalytics
AFL Lab
1.
Brisbane Lions
Very Honourable Upset Win
defeated Port Adelaide by 48 points at Adelaide Oval
PROJECTIONS
2nd +1.2
14.7 wins +0.8
115% +5.1
Gained ground against:
Greater Western Sydney +1.3 West Coast +1.7 Port Adelaide +1.7 Collingwood +0.2 Richmond +0.3
2.
Essendon
Acceptable Contested Win
defeated North Melbourne by 5 points at Marvel Stadium
PROJECTIONS
8th +0.8
12.2 wins +0.6
103% +0.9
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide +1.4 North Melbourne +1.1 Greater Western Sydney +1.1 Fremantle +0.9 Sydney +1.4
3.
Collingwood
Acceptable Upset Win
defeated West Coast by 1 point at Perth Stadium
PROJECTIONS
4th +0.8
14.5 wins +0.6
115% +1.7
Gained ground against:
Greater Western Sydney +1.1 West Coast +1.4 Port Adelaide +1.5
Lost ground to:
Brisbane Lions -0.2
4.
Richmond
Honourable Contested Win
defeated Greater Western Sydney by 27 points at M.C.G.
PROJECTIONS
5th +0.7
13.8 wins +0.5
108% +1.8
Gained ground against:
Greater Western Sydney +1.0 Port Adelaide +1.4 West Coast +1.4
Lost ground to:
Brisbane Lions -0.3
5.
Adelaide
Very Honourable Expected Win
defeated Gold Coast by 95 points at Carrara
PROJECTIONS
7th +0.8
12.6 wins +0.4
112% +5.5
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide +1.3 Greater Western Sydney +0.9 North Melbourne +0.9 Fremantle +0.8
6.
Hawthorn
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated Fremantle by 31 points at York Park
PROJECTIONS
12th +0.8
9.7 wins +0.4
99% +1.5
Gained ground against:
Sydney +1.3 Fremantle +0.8 North Melbourne +0.9 Melbourne +1.0 Port Adelaide +1.3 St Kilda +0.6
7.
Western Bulldogs
Acceptable Contested Win
defeated Melbourne by 8 points at Marvel Stadium
PROJECTIONS
10th +0.6
10.8 wins +0.3
96% -0.2
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide +1.2 North Melbourne +0.8 Sydney +1.1 Fremantle +0.7
Lost ground to:
Hawthorn -0.1
8.
Carlton
Honourable Upset Win
defeated Sydney by 7 points at S.C.G.
PROJECTIONS
17th +0.6
6.4 wins +0.9
85% +1.9
Gained ground against:
Gold Coast +1.2 Melbourne +1.4
9.
Geelong
Acceptable Expected Win
defeated St Kilda by 27 points at Kardinia Park
PROJECTIONS
1st +0.1
17.2 wins +0.1
135% -1.3
Gained ground against:
West Coast +0.9
Lost ground to:
Brisbane Lions -0.8
10.
St Kilda
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Geelong by 27 points at Kardinia Park
PROJECTIONS
15th -0.1
8.1 wins -0.1
82% +0.5
Gained ground against:
Sydney +0.7 Melbourne +0.4
Lost ground to:
Carlton -1.0 Hawthorn -0.6
11.
Gold Coast
Very Dishonourable Expected Loss
lost to Adelaide by 95 points at Carrara
PROJECTIONS
18th -0.2
3.8 wins -0.3
64% -3.4
Lost ground to:
Carlton -1.2
12.
Fremantle
Acceptable Expected Loss
lost to Hawthorn by 31 points at York Park
PROJECTIONS
13th -0.4
9.5 wins -0.3
94% -1.0
Gained ground against:
Sydney +0.5 Port Adelaide +0.5 North Melbourne +0.2
Lost ground to:
Hawthorn -0.8 Western Bulldogs -0.7
13.
Melbourne
Acceptable Contested Loss
lost to Western Bulldogs by 8 points at Marvel Stadium
PROJECTIONS
16th -0.5
7.3 wins -0.5
84% -0.5
Gained ground against:
Sydney +0.3
Lost ground to:
Carlton -1.4 St Kilda -0.4 Hawthorn -1.0
14.
North Melbourne
Acceptable Contested Loss
lost to Essendon by 5 points at Marvel Stadium
PROJECTIONS
11th -0.7
9.8 wins -0.5
99% -0.6
Gained ground against:
Sydney +0.3 Port Adelaide +0.3
Lost ground to:
Hawthorn -0.9 Western Bulldogs -0.8 Essendon -1.1
15.
Sydney
Dishonourable Upset Loss
lost to Carlton by 7 points at S.C.G.
PROJECTIONS
14th -1.0
8.6 wins -0.8
95% -1.9
Lost ground to:
Hawthorn -1.3 St Kilda -0.7 Fremantle -0.5 Western Bulldogs -1.1 Carlton -1.7
16.
Greater Western Sydney
Dishonourable Contested Loss
lost to Richmond by 27 points at M.C.G.
PROJECTIONS
6th -1.0
13.1 wins -0.5
121% -1.9
Gained ground against:
Port Adelaide +0.4
Lost ground to:
Richmond -1.0 Adelaide -0.9 Brisbane Lions -1.3 Collingwood -1.1 Essendon -1.1
17.
Port Adelaide
Very Dishonourable Upset Loss
lost to Brisbane Lions by 48 points at Adelaide Oval
PROJECTIONS
9th -1.6
11.0 wins -0.8
104% -4.7
Lost ground to:
Essendon -1.4 Western Bulldogs -1.2 Adelaide -1.3 Hawthorn -1.3 Fremantle -0.5 North Melbourne -0.3
18.
West Coast
Acceptable Upset Loss
lost to Collingwood by 1 point at Perth Stadium
PROJECTIONS
3rd -1.0
14.8 wins -0.8
113% -2.1
Lost ground to:
Brisbane Lions -1.7 Collingwood -1.4 Richmond -1.4 Adelaide -1.2

Key

HONOURABLE Margin better than expected
ACCEPTABLE Margin around expectation
DISHONOURABLE Margin worse than expected
EXPECTED Game won by favourite
CONTESTED Neither team heavily favoured pre-match
UPSET Game won by underdog

About

To be ranked highly, a team should:

  • Win — ideally in an upset. It's always better to win, but computer models factor in the chances of each win already, and their ladder projections don't change much when teams win games they're expected to. The numbers do change when teams pull off an upset, since this accrues a win that wasn't previously accounted for.

  • Have other teams fighting for the same spots on the ladder lose, ideally in upsets. This is just as important, since it doesn't actually matter how many games you win — you just need more than your competition. When other teams projected to finish around the same area of the ladder lose, it makes it easier to take their spot (or stop them from taking yours). When they lose in upsets, it's especially good, since this means they are likely to exert less competitive pressure on higher ladder spots than previously believed.

  • Be more competitive than expected. Regardless of whether you win or lose, when a team exceeds expectations, it will be considered more likely to win in the future, and its projected numbers will shift upward accordingly. This is most visible in projected percentages, which almost always rise after a competitive performance, regardless of whether the game was won or lost.

Everything is relative! If a team pulls off a terrific upset win but so do other teams competing for the same ladder positions, no-one has gained much.

In general, you always want a team to lose if it is likely to finish near your team on the ladder, and to drop form if your team is fixtured to play them in the future. You don't care whether teams win or lose if they aren't competing for the same ladder positions, although it is helpful if they gain form ahead of playing your competitors.

Gaining/Losing Ground

Numbers beside each team indicate the change in relative projected wins. For example, if Brisbane Lions show "Gained ground against: St Kilda -1.1," this means that the Lions have effectively gained 1.1 projected wins this round compared to the Saints — most likely a combination of the Lions now being projected to win more games than previously believed plus the Saints being projected to win fewer.

These lists are in approximate order of significance, which is a combined estimate of both how large the change is and how likely it is to affect this team's finishing position.

Algorithm v0.6

This analysis uses an algorithm to rate the importance of different movements, so that a team moving from 3rd to 2nd is considered more significant than a team moving from 13th to 12th. In particular, it considers:

  • Distance between teams before and after the round

  • Team rank before and after the round

  • Whether the team has moved into or out of the Top 2/4/8

  • Rounds remaining for teams to close gaps