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The Tips Are Coming In

Posted on September 27, 2017September 27, 2017 by Max Barry

We have our first computer model Tiger tip! It’s from Matter of Stats.

Matter of Stats post on the tip.

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Matter of Stats, Squiggle

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 17.3 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Fremantle 16.7 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
3
 Hawthorn 16.1 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.0 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Geelong 14.9 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
6
 Gold Coast 13.3 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Adelaide 12.9 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.9 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
9
 Collingwood 12.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Melbourne 12.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–11
11
 St Kilda 11.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–13
12
 GWS 10.9 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
13
 North Melbourne 9.7 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Port Adelaide 9.3 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Carlton 7.0 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 Essendon 5.6 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 West Coast 5.6 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
18
 Richmond 4.2 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 9, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 8 1 – 157.2%
+9.3
1
2
 Fremantle 8 1 – 131.6%
+8.7
2
3
 Hawthorn 6 2 1 116.8%
+9.6
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 6 3 – 124.5%
+9.0
4
5
 Geelong 6 3 – 120.4%
+8.9
5
6
 Gold Coast 6 3 – 118.5%
+7.3
6
7
 Melbourne 6 3 – 103.9%
+6.2
10
8
 Adelaide 5 4 – 101.7%
+7.9
7
9
 Western Bulldogs 5 4 – 92.4%
+7.9
8
10
 Collingwood 4 4 1 99.9%
+7.6
9
11
 St Kilda 4 5 – 109.3%
+7.0
11
12
 North Melbourne 4 5 – 104.4%
+5.7
13
13
 GWS 4 5 – 91.1%
+6.9
12
14
 Port Adelaide 3 6 – 109.5%
+6.3
14
15
 West Coast 2 7 – 60.1%
+3.6
17
16
 Carlton 1 8 – 79.3%
+6.0
15
17
 Essendon 1 8 – 71.8%
+4.6
16
18
 Richmond 1 8 – 60.3%
+3.2
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8

68 23.9433 23.94 23.9499 23.95 83.9506 84.0%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8

67 24.7697 24.77 25.1479 25.15 82.7160 82.7%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9

65 24.6484 24.65 25.2799 25.28 80.2469 80.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8

65 22.4920 22.49 25.5348 25.53 80.2469 80.2%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7

65 15.9517 15.95 25.2227 25.22 80.2469 80.2%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8

64 24.8655 24.87 24.8037 24.80 79.0123 79.0%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9

64 24.2724 24.27 26.4198 26.42 79.0123 79.0%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9

64 22.6357 22.64 25.4804 25.48 79.0123 79.0%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9

64 17.7029 17.70 26.3457 26.35 79.0123 79.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8

63 25.4473 25.45 26.0486 26.05 77.7778 77.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7

63 25.3622 25.36 25.9604 25.96 77.7778 77.8%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8

63 23.4387 23.44 25.6358 25.64 77.7778 77.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9

62 22.6674 22.67 27.2593 27.26 76.5432 76.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8

62 22.1946 22.19 25.9637 25.96 76.5432 76.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7

62 21.7398 21.74 25.5984 25.60 76.5432 76.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9

62 21.1189 21.12 26.3644 26.36 76.5432 76.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8

61 22.8404 22.84 26.8530 26.85 75.3086 75.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6

61 21.1374 21.14 25.9153 25.92 75.3086 75.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8

61 20.4411 20.44 26.2296 26.23 75.3086 75.3%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7

59 22.5274 22.53 26.8351 26.84 72.8395 72.8%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9

59 22.0226 22.02 26.2407 26.24 72.8395 72.8%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8

59 21.6533 21.65 25.5999 25.60 72.8395 72.8%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7

59 20.5137 20.51 27.2469 27.25 72.8395 72.8%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7

59 20.4606 20.46 26.4815 26.48 72.8395 72.8%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9

59 19.8252 19.83 28.6914 28.69 72.8395 72.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8

58 18.0475 18.05 26.6469 26.65 71.6049 71.6%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7

57 18.4053 18.41 26.3554 26.36 70.3704 70.4%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7

57 17.2819 17.28 26.5494 26.55 70.3704 70.4%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9

55 18.0647 18.06 26.7901 26.79 67.9012 67.9%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9

53 16.4068 16.41 27.3333 27.33 †9 73.6111 73.6%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9

43 18.0250 18.02 27.8393 27.84 †25 76.7857 76.8%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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