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The Tips Are Coming In

Posted on September 27, 2017September 27, 2017 by Max Barry

We have our first computer model Tiger tip! It’s from Matter of Stats.

Matter of Stats post on the tip.

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Matter of Stats, Squiggle

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Wins % Range
1
Sydney 17.2 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1–2
2
Fremantle 17.5 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1–2
3
Geelong 15.6 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
4
Hawthorn 15.5 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
5
Adelaide 12.9 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–8
6
Gold Coast 12.9 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–7
7
Melbourne 12.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–9
8
Brisbane Lions 12.3 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–9
9
Western Bulldogs 12.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–9
10
Collingwood 11.4 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–11
11
GWS 11.2 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–12
12
St Kilda 10.7 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–13
13
North Melbourne 10.2 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–14
14
Carlton 9.8 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–14
15
Port Adelaide 8.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
16
West Coast 7.1 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
Essendon 4.6 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17–18
18
Richmond 4.7 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17–18

After Round 12, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Fremantle 11 1 – 135.2%
+6.5
2
2
Sydney 10 2 – 152.4%
+7.2
1
3
Hawthorn 8 3 1 114.8%
+7.0
4
4
Geelong 8 4 – 121.9%
+7.6
3
5
Gold Coast 7∗ 4 – 116.9%
+5.9
6
6
Melbourne 7 5 – 101.8%
+5.6
7
7
Western Bulldogs 7 5 – 93.7%
+5.4
9
8
Adelaide 6∗ 5 – 107.9%
+6.9
5
9
Brisbane Lions 6 6 – 103.9%
+6.3
8
10
GWS 6 6 – 103.2%
+5.2
11
11
Collingwood 5 6 1 99.9%
+5.9
10
12
St Kilda 5 7 – 102.3%
+5.7
12
13
North Melbourne 5∗ 6 – 97.6%
+5.2
13
14
Carlton 4 8 – 87.5%
+5.8
14
15
West Coast 4 8 – 70.0%
+3.1
16
16
Port Adelaide 3∗ 8 – 100.9%
+5.4
15
17
Richmond 2 10 – 60.4%
+2.7
18
18
Essendon 1 11 – 70.5%
+3.6
17

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5

83 26.5978 26.60 26.2551 26.26 78.3019 78.3%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5

83 25.1812 25.18 25.4130 25.41 78.3019 78.3%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4

80 17.0668 17.07 26.5894 26.59 75.4717 75.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4

79 25.4998 25.50 26.5315 26.53 74.5283 74.5%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4

79 22.8113 22.81 27.0453 27.05 74.5283 74.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5

78 26.6294 26.63 26.1131 26.11 73.5849 73.6%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5

78 25.1322 25.13 26.7810 26.78 73.5849 73.6%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4

78 23.9539 23.95 27.4434 27.44 73.5849 73.6%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4

78 23.8927 23.89 26.5389 26.54 73.5849 73.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4

78 19.5827 19.58 27.0566 27.06 73.5849 73.6%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4

77 25.9371 25.94 26.9464 26.95 72.6415 72.6%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4

76 23.0176 23.02 27.3908 27.39 71.6981 71.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3

76 22.4366 22.44 26.8700 26.87 71.6981 71.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4

76 22.2041 22.20 28.3396 28.34 71.6981 71.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5

76 20.6030 20.60 28.1358 28.14 71.6981 71.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3

75 23.9172 23.92 27.6349 27.63 70.7547 70.8%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5

74 24.2611 24.26 27.5656 27.57 69.8113 69.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3

74 23.0813 23.08 27.0418 27.04 69.8113 69.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6

74 20.1728 20.17 27.1057 27.11 69.8113 69.8%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2

74 19.9864 19.99 27.6523 27.65 69.8113 69.8%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4

73 23.7852 23.79 26.4944 26.49 68.8679 68.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4

73 23.1776 23.18 27.0566 27.06 68.8679 68.9%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5

73 22.3368 22.34 27.5377 27.54 68.8679 68.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4

73 21.5570 21.56 27.2308 27.23 68.8679 68.9%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3

73 20.1080 20.11 26.9387 26.94 68.8679 68.9%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3

72 21.2435 21.24 29.0094 29.01 67.9245 67.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5

72 18.7401 18.74 27.5283 27.53 67.9245 67.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4

71 19.7774 19.78 27.4402 27.44 66.9811 67.0%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5

68 17.9571 17.96 27.7423 27.74 †9 70.1031 70.1%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3

68 16.8670 16.87 28.1604 28.16 64.1509 64.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4

57 18.4922 18.49 28.7469 28.75 †25 70.3704 70.4%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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