Round 22, 2025

One week out! Wishlist now for launch discount.

You can now play the first two seasons of Squiggle Football on PC, Mac & Linux.

Or you can just wishlist it! Then you get notified when the full version drops with a launch discount in August, while also helping my stats. Everybody’s happy.

Squiggle Football on Steam – demo

Coming August 2025 for PC, Mac + Linux!

WISHLIST NOW ON STEAM

Don’t let the loud voices distract you from the fact that Damian Barrett has delivered three fantastic preseason ladder predictions in a row.

Since he finished dead last in Squiggle’s 2019 Rate My Ladder analysis, Barrett has improved every year to become a reliable source of preseason insight. And 2024 was his best yet, smoking not just the rest of the AFL punditry, but all the models, too.

Look at this thing! Sure, he had the Hawks last, and only got 5 of the top 8. But the top 4 are all there. And this was a tough year.

If you’re ready to hop on board the Barrett train, you can find his 2025 predictions here. Or view all collected 2025 predicted ladders from both media experts and models.

As usual, models did better than pundits on average, filling half the top 10 slots but few of the lower ones.

I have also managed to get the Ladder Scoreboard back online after it collapsed last year under the weight of Round 0 bugs. Hooray!

I’m developing a deck-building list management game, targeting an August 2025 release.

Here’s an early look!

Wishlist Now on Steam

To be notified when it releases, go wishlist it on the Steam page. There will be a public demo in mid-2025.

More details on the Steam page…

Three new models join the Squiggle comp:

And retiring this year is The Flag.

That makes 26 models (plus Punters). Which is, you know, quite a lot of models.

Edit (14-Mar-2024): Wait! There’s a late entry! So that makes 27.

Every year, the AFL unexpectedly releases the fixture on the first day of my holidays. Then thirty seconds later people start messaging to ask when I’m updating the site.

This year, I was in line to board my plane at Melbourne Airport. I’m about to attempt to run a half-marathon up Mt. Wellington in Hobart, by the way, so if I don’t make it back, that’s what happened.

Anyway, Squiggle is now updated for 2024, except for all the things that immediately broke because of Round 0. It will take a while until I get home and take a look at why the in-house model apparently thinks Fremantle are red-hot for next year, and whether that’s legit. I don’t think it’s super urgent because although this model has an outstanding track record, that’s based on final preseason predictions, made once we have info on off-season injuries as well as practice matches, which can change the numbers a lot.

But we have 2024 games up the top, we’re collecting 2024 tips & predictions from models, and you can use the ladder predictor, so, you know, priorities.

2024 Squiggle Ladder Predictor

You can’t tell, but the first character of “0pen” above is a zero. Because the AFL realized that when everyone wants different things in the first round, it’s easier to accomodate them if you have two first rounds.

So Round 1, 2024 will be the 2nd round. And the first round, if you have to give it a number, will be 0.

That’s problematic for people like me, because I do have to give rounds numbers, and Round 0 is how I’ve always designated ratings and predictions generated prior to the start of a season. So now I have to choose:

1. Stick to the same numbering scheme, so “1” still means the first round, and “2” the second, etc. This would be ridiculous, because no matter how careful we all are, it will be endlessly confusing for “2” to mean “Round 1.”
2. Change the numbering scheme, so that “0” means “Opening Round,” and “-1” is pre-season. (Also, in some contexts, change “0” from meaning “no round in particular, give me all the data you have.”) This is also terrible, because that’s not how it’s worked before, and will break some existing third-party apps that rely on the Squiggle API, of which there are quite a lot.

Nevertheless, #2 is less stupid than #1. So I think that’s what I have to do.

Since Twitter has begun sliding into the sea and can’t be relied on to exist in the future.

Full leaderboard

🏆 Overall champion: @EloPredicts (156 tips)

Runner-up: @thecruncherau (154 tips)

🏆 Bits champion: @AflGlicko (35.76 bits)

Runner-up: @MatterOfStats (33.24)

🏆 MAE champion: @AflGlicko (24.91)

Runner-up: @MatterOfStats (25.09)

The s10 index for 2024, i.e. this year’s top 10 performing models by MAE:

@AflGlicko and @GRAFTRatings re-enter the index, @MatterOfStats & the Squiggle in-house model make it 7 in a row, and @AflLadder misses for the first time since joining in 2018.