LEADERBOARD

Final standings for 2023 after 216 games.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Elo Predicts!

7 5 6 6 8 8 6 9 7 6 3 6 3 4 4 8 8 7 9 3 8 7 5 6 4 0 2 1

156 24.54 26.48 72.2%
The Cruncher

8 5 7 7 6 8 6 8 7 7 3 5 3 5 4 8 8 7 9 4 7 7 5 4 3 0 2 1

154 27.36 26.04 71.3%
Data by Josh

6 5 5 6 7 8 5 8 6 7 3 5 3 6 6 8 7 7 9 2 7 7 7 5 4 2 1 1

153 29.35 25.54 70.8%
Massey Ratings

6 3 6 5 6 9 6 9 6 7 3 6 3 6 5 8 8 7 8 3 7 8 5 6 4 0 2 1

153 27.54 26.22 70.8%
The Wooden Finger

7 4 6 5 7 8 6 8 7 6 3 6 3 5 6 8 7 8 8 3 8 8 5 4 4 0 2 1

153 23.77 26.41 70.8%
s10

7 4 6 6 8 8 5 8 6 6 3 5 4 6 6 8 8 7 8 3 7 7 6 4 3 0 2 1

152 32.61 25.13 70.4%
Squiggle

6 5 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 7 4 4 4 6 6 7 8 7 8 4 7 6 6 5 4 0 2 0

151 32.45 25.30 69.9%
Aggregate

6 4 7 6 7 8 6 8 7 6 3 5 3 6 6 8 8 7 8 3 7 7 5 4 3 0 2 1

151 30.98 25.34 69.9%
PlusSixOne

7 4 7 7 8 8 5 8 6 7 3 7 3 5 4 7 8 7 7 3 8 7 4 5 3 0 2 1

151 23.32 27.10 69.9%
Glicko Ratings

6 5 6 7 7 7 5 8 6 6 3 5 4 6 6 8 8 7 8 1 7 6 6 7 3 0 1 1

150 35.76 24.91 69.4%
AFL Lab

7 3 7 7 7 8 5 8 6 7 4 6 5 6 5 7 8 7 8 3 8 5 4 4 2 0 2 1

150 31.10 25.55 69.4%
FMI

8 4 6 6 7 8 6 8 6 6 3 6 3 5 5 8 8 7 8 3 8 5 5 5 3 0 2 1

150 27.16 26.30 69.4%
Punters

6 4 5 6 7 8 6 8 6 6 3 4 3 6 6 8 8 7 8 3 7 7 6 5 3 0 2 1

149 33.95 25.13 69.0%
AFLalytics

7 5 6 7 8 8 5 8 6 7 3 5 3 6 6 7 8 7 8 2 7 6 4 4 3 0 2 1

149 32.39 25.23 69.0%
Matter of Stats

4 4 5 6 8 9 5 8 6 6 3 5 5 6 5 8 9 7 8 1 7 6 6 5 3 1 1 1

148 33.24 25.09 68.5%
Graft

7 5 5 6 6 8 6 8 7 6 3 6 3 5 5 7 8 8 8 3 8 6 4 4 3 0 2 1

148 27.57 25.71 68.5%
Live Ladders

7 4 7 6 8 7 6 8 6 6 3 6 3 5 6 8 8 7 8 2 7 7 5 5 1 0 2 0

148 27.15 26.00 68.5%
Don't Blame the Data

6 4 6 5 7 8 6 9 6 7 3 5 4 5 6 8 7 7 8 4 8 5 5 5 2 0 2 0

148 22.34 26.90 68.5%
Drop Kick Data

4 4 6 7 6 8 6 8 7 6 3 5 3 6 6 8 8 7 8 3 7 6 5 5 3 0 1 1

147 31.68 25.85 68.1%
Cheap Stats

5 5 5 6 7 8 6 9 7 6 3 5 5 3 4 8 6 5 9 3 8 6 6 7 3 0 2 0

147 30.86 25.83 68.4%
Stattraction

5 3 5 6 7 8 6 9 6 6 4 6 5 4 6 8 7 6 8 3 8 5 5 6 3 0 2 0

147 24.89 26.83 68.1%
Wheelo Ratings

5 4 6 6 8 8 5 8 6 6 3 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 8 3 7 6 5 4 3 0 2 1

146 31.64 25.16 67.6%
The Footycast

7 4 5 6 6 8 6 9 7 6 3 5 3 4 6 8 8 7 7 2 7 7 4 4 4 0 2 1

146 27.25 25.80 67.6%
AFL Scorigami

5 5 4 6 8 7 6 8 7 6 3 4 4 5 5 7 8 7 8 3 7 8 4 4 3 1 2 1

146 22.96 26.23 67.6%
ZaphBot

7 3 6 6 6 7 8 8 6 7 3 7 3 4 4 7 8 6 8 2 7 7 4 6 3 0 2 1

146 22.72 27.02 67.6%
Hyperion

5 4 6 5 6 8 6 9 6 6 3 6 3 5 4 8 8 6 9 4 7 6 6 4 2 0 2 1

145 24.41 27.51 67.1%
The Flag

7 4 5 6 5 8 6 9 7 6 3 5 3 4 5 8 7 5 8 2 7 6 5 4 4 1 1 1

142 16.72 26.98 65.7%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Elo Predicts! 70% 4.3 26.0 81% 5.2 23.8 69% 1.2 26.1 81% 3.2 22.7 83% 7.1 29.8 52% -4.0 34.3 61% -2.7 29.8 74% 1.7 32.2 62% -2.4 24.2 74% 4.1 33.7 68% 2.7 17.6 91% 11.4 22.0 64% 2.2 26.2 70% 2.5 22.6 71% 3.0 21.9 75% 1.5 26.7 91% 10.6 36.0 65% -2.4 23.3
The Cruncher 70% 4.0 25.8 77% 4.9 22.1 69% 2.9 26.3 69% 2.9 21.7 87% 7.3 26.8 48% -2.9 32.7 52% -2.9 27.8 70% 0.3 31.5 62% 0.8 23.2 78% 3.3 34.4 72% 3.3 18.4 91% 10.8 21.7 64% 2.7 24.9 74% 2.9 22.0 79% 4.1 23.0 71% 1.6 27.2 91% 10.6 35.6 61% -2.1 25.8
Data by Josh 57% 3.2 26.6 77% 5.4 24.3 69% 2.4 26.0 77% 3.4 20.7 78% 8.6 26.3 61% -3.8 33.0 65% -2.2 27.3 74% 2.3 30.7 69% -0.6 23.2 78% 5.4 31.0 56% 2.8 18.4 87% 8.7 22.0 76% 4.5 24.7 70% 4.7 18.7 75% 2.6 24.1 62% 2.7 26.0 91% 10.9 35.0 52% -2.3 23.7
Massey Ratings 65% 4.1 26.4 73% 4.8 23.3 69% 2.1 26.5 73% 3.9 22.7 83% 6.6 27.7 61% -1.5 32.4 57% -2.9 28.8 78% 3.2 30.6 65% -0.8 24.5 78% 3.6 35.2 76% 3.7 18.6 83% 10.4 21.0 56% 3.2 24.2 74% 4.4 19.8 75% 2.6 23.1 71% 2.4 26.5 83% 9.0 38.0 57% -3.6 24.6
The Wooden Finger 65% 4.2 26.4 73% 5.5 23.2 73% 3.8 25.9 69% 3.5 22.5 91% 7.5 28.1 48% -5.3 33.7 61% -5.0 31.8 74% 1.4 29.8 65% -1.0 24.0 78% 4.5 30.7 68% 3.2 17.4 87% 8.7 23.3 64% 4.2 23.8 65% 1.8 22.7 75% 4.2 22.9 71% 1.1 28.3 87% 9.1 37.4 61% -3.9 25.8
s10 70% 4.0 25.9 77% 6.0 21.9 62% 3.1 24.7 73% 4.3 20.4 83% 6.9 27.3 57% -1.3 31.7 57% -1.1 27.2 74% 2.8 29.8 65% -0.0 23.3 78% 5.1 32.9 64% 3.4 17.5 87% 9.8 20.9 64% 4.0 23.4 74% 3.9 19.2 71% 3.4 22.5 71% 2.2 26.9 87% 10.6 34.7 57% -1.8 24.1
Squiggle 70% 4.3 27.0 65% 5.7 22.6 69% 3.6 24.3 77% 6.2 19.5 83% 7.7 27.1 57% -0.8 31.2 57% -1.7 28.1 65% 1.6 31.8 62% -0.8 23.2 74% 5.5 32.3 68% 3.8 17.9 87% 9.4 20.6 76% 3.9 24.8 65% 4.0 19.3 75% 4.3 20.3 67% 1.0 28.9 87% 9.4 35.1 57% -2.3 23.6
Aggregate 70% 3.9 26.1 73% 5.5 22.1 62% 3.1 24.5 73% 4.0 20.8 83% 6.9 27.3 57% -1.7 32.2 57% -1.5 27.8 74% 2.6 29.9 65% -0.4 23.8 74% 4.6 32.9 64% 3.4 17.6 87% 9.8 21.5 60% 3.5 23.9 74% 3.5 19.7 75% 3.3 22.7 71% 2.2 26.7 87% 10.8 34.5 57% -1.5 24.3
PlusSixOne 74% 3.8 26.6 73% 4.1 24.8 65% 2.0 26.3 77% 3.0 23.3 74% 4.0 28.6 57% -0.9 32.9 57% -0.1 28.8 74% 2.9 30.7 62% -0.5 25.4 78% 3.6 35.1 64% 3.0 19.1 91% 7.5 22.0 56% 1.5 26.5 78% 2.4 21.8 67% 1.4 22.7 71% 2.0 27.0 91% 8.2 43.3 52% -1.2 24.9
Glicko Ratings 65% 4.0 25.4 85% 7.5 20.9 58% 2.8 25.3 65% 4.9 20.5 78% 6.4 28.8 65% -0.1 29.3 65% -0.1 26.8 70% 2.8 29.5 65% 0.6 22.9 70% 4.7 32.9 64% 3.6 17.7 87% 9.9 22.5 64% 4.4 23.5 70% 4.4 19.5 62% 2.7 23.6 75% 3.0 25.2 87% 12.0 31.9 57% -1.8 24.4
AFL Lab 70% 3.8 26.5 81% 6.5 22.5 62% 2.5 25.8 62% 2.6 23.8 83% 6.3 27.3 70% -1.1 31.8 52% -1.7 27.5 61% 2.4 30.2 65% -2.0 23.7 78% 6.0 31.9 64% 3.3 18.6 87% 10.9 18.3 64% 4.5 23.4 70% 3.0 21.2 71% 3.7 21.1 67% 1.5 27.2 87% 10.4 38.2 61% -0.4 22.7
FMI 61% 3.4 27.4 77% 4.1 22.5 62% 2.6 25.5 73% 2.3 23.3 87% 5.6 28.5 57% -1.5 32.9 52% -1.9 31.2 74% 2.1 29.7 62% -0.6 25.5 83% 4.9 30.2 64% 3.3 17.6 87% 10.1 23.3 60% 2.5 24.8 65% 2.3 22.5 67% 2.3 24.7 75% 1.5 26.1 87% 10.8 34.5 61% 0.5 25.3
Punters 70% 4.7 26.0 65% 6.4 22.4 58% 3.3 24.5 73% 5.6 19.1 87% 7.6 26.4 57% -2.5 31.7 61% -1.4 26.5 74% 3.6 29.1 62% -0.2 24.0 74% 5.1 33.0 56% 3.7 17.5 83% 9.5 22.5 68% 4.2 24.0 74% 4.5 18.8 75% 2.7 24.4 67% 2.3 26.9 87% 11.2 33.9 57% -2.5 24.0
AFLalytics 70% 4.5 26.1 77% 7.4 20.5 58% 2.5 25.6 69% 4.2 21.6 78% 7.0 27.7 61% -2.2 30.4 57% -0.9 27.1 65% 3.4 28.6 69% -0.2 23.6 74% 5.4 32.6 64% 3.4 18.1 87% 10.3 19.7 64% 3.6 24.5 65% 3.7 19.8 71% 3.0 22.9 71% 2.1 26.8 91% 10.4 35.2 52% -2.8 25.1
Matter of Stats 70% 3.6 25.4 73% 6.9 21.0 69% 3.9 24.3 69% 4.4 19.6 78% 6.2 28.0 70% -0.8 29.7 57% -1.1 28.5 74% 2.7 29.9 65% 1.8 21.8 70% 4.9 34.1 44% 2.5 18.9 83% 9.4 21.9 72% 3.8 23.4 70% 3.6 20.0 62% 3.3 23.7 67% 2.6 26.7 83% 10.9 32.6 61% -2.2 24.7
Graft 65% 3.9 24.5 77% 5.0 22.0 69% 4.2 24.5 62% 3.2 21.3 83% 6.0 26.4 48% -3.1 33.0 52% -1.6 31.1 70% 2.6 28.3 65% -0.3 24.7 74% 4.4 31.1 68% 3.4 16.7 87% 8.6 23.3 60% 2.6 25.4 65% 2.5 21.2 71% 3.2 23.6 75% 1.9 27.8 87% 10.7 34.3 57% -1.8 25.7
Live Ladders 74% 4.5 24.6 69% 4.3 22.9 62% 2.3 25.2 65% 2.7 23.0 83% 6.1 28.1 61% -1.1 31.7 57% -1.5 27.8 70% 2.4 29.9 58% -1.4 24.5 78% 5.2 32.9 68% 2.7 18.7 87% 10.1 21.0 68% 3.8 23.9 65% 2.6 21.2 62% 2.7 23.0 71% 1.5 27.6 87% 10.2 38.0 52% -2.8 25.8
Don't Blame the Data 65% 3.2 27.7 73% 4.8 24.3 73% 3.2 24.9 62% 1.3 23.3 87% 7.9 28.8 48% -2.3 32.4 52% -2.7 28.7 74% 2.2 30.1 62% -4.3 26.9 74% 3.5 34.5 68% 2.8 20.9 91% 9.7 24.8 64% 1.0 25.6 65% 2.6 22.2 62% 2.1 23.6 71% 2.2 26.5 91% 10.5 34.5 52% -3.0 26.5
Drop Kick Data 61% 3.2 28.8 69% 6.0 22.3 69% 4.5 23.3 65% 4.1 21.5 83% 7.2 25.6 65% -1.0 31.9 65% -0.1 25.5 74% 1.8 32.2 58% -0.6 24.7 78% 4.8 33.0 52% 2.7 19.5 83% 9.9 23.0 64% 2.8 24.6 74% 3.7 18.9 62% 3.4 24.0 62% 1.7 28.1 83% 9.9 37.1 61% -0.6 23.4
Cheap Stats 65% 3.5 27.0 69% 4.5 23.5 62% 3.1 25.6 73% 5.0 20.8 83% 6.8 26.8 52% -1.4 33.0 59% -2.2 28.8 70% 2.3 29.4 65% 0.6 23.9 78% 4.4 33.2 62% 3.3 18.1 78% 9.3 23.1 68% 3.7 23.8 65% 3.4 20.4 71% 3.6 23.2 71% 3.1 27.2 83% 10.9 35.0 57% -1.9 24.0
Stattraction 57% 3.3 29.4 69% 4.0 24.9 69% 2.7 25.0 65% 3.0 23.4 83% 6.6 28.1 61% -1.3 32.2 52% -4.0 29.4 65% 1.0 33.5 62% -2.1 25.8 83% 3.8 33.1 68% 3.5 19.0 83% 10.0 23.4 60% 2.4 25.3 70% 4.2 20.4 62% 2.5 24.1 75% 3.1 26.7 83% 9.9 36.0 61% -2.9 25.2
Wheelo Ratings 65% 3.5 26.4 77% 7.1 20.1 58% 2.7 25.1 69% 4.1 19.9 78% 6.7 28.0 61% -2.1 30.5 57% -1.5 27.8 65% 3.4 30.0 65% 0.5 22.4 78% 5.4 32.4 60% 2.7 18.9 83% 9.0 21.2 64% 4.2 24.6 70% 4.0 19.2 67% 3.3 22.8 67% 2.2 27.2 83% 10.5 34.2 52% -2.4 24.2
The Footycast 74% 3.7 26.9 73% 5.5 22.4 65% 3.3 24.3 69% 4.1 21.5 78% 5.5 28.5 48% -2.2 33.8 57% -0.7 28.6 61% 2.1 29.8 62% -0.1 24.5 74% 3.3 35.1 64% 3.2 17.1 87% 9.0 21.0 60% 2.3 24.5 74% 3.6 18.8 71% 2.9 22.0 62% 0.7 28.3 87% 10.4 34.4 52% -2.1 25.1
AFL Scorigami 65% 3.1 25.5 65% 3.3 24.6 73% 2.7 26.1 65% 3.3 21.7 78% 5.8 27.0 52% -4.0 34.1 57% -2.1 27.8 65% 1.2 31.8 69% 0.6 23.2 70% 2.4 36.5 56% 2.9 18.6 83% 7.4 22.1 68% 4.6 23.1 74% 2.4 21.6 67% 3.0 20.5 67% 1.6 26.4 83% 9.9 40.0 61% -2.2 24.0
ZaphBot 70% 2.0 27.5 73% 3.5 25.4 58% 0.9 27.9 73% 3.6 23.3 70% 5.0 29.1 52% -1.8 33.2 57% -1.6 28.8 74% 2.5 30.3 62% -2.8 27.3 70% 3.9 34.7 76% 3.6 17.1 83% 7.8 22.0 56% 3.0 24.1 65% 2.3 23.2 71% 2.3 22.8 62% 2.2 27.1 87% 10.5 39.3 61% -1.7 25.1
Hyperion 70% 4.1 31.1 65% 5.4 24.0 69% 0.3 28.1 73% 5.0 23.0 87% 8.5 28.9 48% -3.2 33.2 52% -2.5 28.9 74% 3.7 28.7 58% -5.4 28.2 70% 3.2 32.3 56% 1.2 23.4 91% 11.3 25.8 60% 1.4 25.6 65% 3.4 22.0 54% 1.7 25.1 79% 1.8 27.4 91% 11.0 35.3 48% -2.0 25.9
The Flag 61% 1.8 25.1 65% 3.9 24.2 69% 4.4 25.4 58% 1.0 22.9 83% 6.4 28.2 48% -5.1 34.2 52% -6.8 33.7 70% 1.8 30.1 58% -2.0 25.7 65% 2.4 37.3 60% 1.4 18.3 83% 8.1 24.3 60% 2.3 25.5 65% 3.5 20.3 71% 3.7 22.1 71% -0.3 28.6 87% 9.8 36.8 61% -3.0 25.1