LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Collingwood Brisbane Lions Adelaide Geelong Hawthorn Greater Western Sydney Fremantle Gold Coast Western Bulldogs Sydney Port Adelaide Carlton Melbourne Essendon St Kilda Richmond North Melbourne West Coast
Live Ladders 140.1 4.4 4.2 5.7 6.2 5.9 5.7 6.1 6.5 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.2 7.6 7.7 7.7 8.2 8.6 6.0 5.1 4.6 7.6 6.6 7.1 6.3 4.9 4.6 7.5 6.9 7.5 7.5 7.4 3.5 8.9 8.9 9.2
Don't Blame the Data 138.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.2 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.2 7.7 7.6 7.7 8.3 8.8 5.2 7.2 3.7 7.4 7.3 6.9 5.9 5.2 3.2 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.4 5.5 5.4 8.8 8.7 9.0
ZaphBot 136.2 3.6 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.1 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.2 8.3 1.3 8.5 2.3 7.9 6.1 7.1 6.6 5.2 5.9 5.3 7.0 7.9 7.5 8.5 4.3 8.5 7.4 9.6
Graft 136.1 3.6 3.9 6.2 6.2 5.8 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.9 6.8 7.4 7.6 7.6 8.1 8.5 4.6 4.9 6.5 7.2 6.6 6.8 6.2 5.5 2.3 6.2 6.8 7.0 6.7 8.1 4.4 8.7 8.5 9.6
Squiggle 135.8 4.6 4.6 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.8 7.3 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.5 6.0 4.8 6.1 7.7 6.9 6.0 6.6 4.7 3.3 7.2 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 4.1 8.3 7.5 8.7
AFL Lab 134.8 3.9 3.6 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.5 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.6 5.2 6.9 4.4 7.6 7.1 5.6 4.7 6.4 3.5 7.2 6.5 7.1 7.4 6.6 2.6 8.6 9.0 9.1
Winnable 134.8 4.6 4.7 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.6 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.8 7.2 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.4 6.0 5.8 4.9 7.3 7.0 4.7 6.8 5.6 1.3 7.0 7.1 5.9 7.6 7.6 5.7 8.5 7.7 9.2
Matter of Stats 134.4 4.2 4.1 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.7 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.9 8.3 4.9 5.1 5.5 7.3 6.7 6.4 6.2 5.3 2.1 7.4 6.8 6.3 7.1 7.8 4.4 8.4 8.3 9.1
Glicko Ratings 134.4 4.7 4.6 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.6 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 8.1 8.4 4.7 5.4 5.7 7.2 6.7 6.2 6.9 4.3 3.0 7.5 6.6 5.7 7.3 6.1 6.4 8.5 7.8 9.1
Stattraction 134.3 4.0 3.8 5.7 6.1 5.5 5.5 6.2 6.7 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.0 6.9 7.4 7.5 7.6 8.0 8.6 4.5 6.5 5.0 7.2 6.9 5.5 6.3 4.6 1.9 7.1 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.1 4.2 8.7 8.6 9.4
Elo Predicts! 133.5 3.5 3.9 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 6.3 7.5 6.2 5.9 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.5 7.2 6.9 7.9 7.7 7.9 8.6 8.7 4.2 8.3 1.4 7.9 7.2 6.5 5.3 6.1 2.3 5.2 6.9 6.1 6.5 8.8 4.0 9.2 9.0 9.6
Wheelo Ratings 132.4 4.2 4.1 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.3 4.4 4.7 6.0 7.4 6.8 6.2 6.2 4.9 2.9 7.3 6.7 6.4 7.3 7.2 3.9 8.3 7.7 9.0
The Footycast 128.8 4.1 4.0 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.3 6.2 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.7 7.7 8.4 4.5 5.4 6.3 7.1 6.6 7.1 6.1 6.3 4.2 6.0 7.0 6.7 6.5 7.6 3.2 8.4 8.0 9.1
PlusSixOne 122.4 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.3 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.2 3.4 4.2 4.6 6.5 6.0 5.9 6.6 5.9 4.8 6.5 6.7 5.6 6.6 6.1 3.2 7.2 7.1 7.9
What Snoo Thinks 119.6 4.0 4.0 4.2 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.9 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 5.0 4.1 4.1 7.3 7.0 5.2 6.0 5.4 -0.4 6.6 6.3 4.9 6.7 8.1 4.2 8.9 8.9 9.4
Informed Stats 110.2 5.0 5.3 6.3 6.6 6.3 5.5 5.4 5.5 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.6 7.1 7.6 7.3 8.1 8.8 7.0 5.9 4.3 6.8 6.2 6.5 6.8 4.7 1.1 6.8 6.2 7.3 7.7 7.7 3.5 9.1 9.2 10.0
Ladder 95.8 -0.8 -0.5 1.8 1.2 1.8 3.8 4.4 5.8 4.1 3.5 4.4 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.7 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.7 10.0 6.2 7.2 6.2 4.3 5.6 4.3 2.1 0.1 4.9 3.5 4.9 5.4 4.4 3.7 2.6 6.8 4.4 9.7
AFLalytics 9.0 3.8 5.2 -4.6 4.7 1.0 5.4 6.6 5.8 5.0 5.5 4.5 5.7 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.1 2.7 5.2 7.0 5.9

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 13
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 14
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 15
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 18
9.99999988 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 18
9.99997353 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 17
9.99976176 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 16
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 6
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 9
9.99950294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 10
9.99950000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 11
9.99941176 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 12
9.99887012 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 17
9.99870294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 7
9.99869718 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 9
9.99800882 Glicko Ratings West Coast
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 18th 18
9.99797529 Stattraction West Coast
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 18th 18
9.99717059 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 15
9.99699412 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th 18
9.99675624 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 16
9.99551000 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 14
9.99550000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 8
9.99469812 Winnable West Coast
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 18th 18
9.99404118 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 18
9.99370621 Matter of Stats West Coast
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 18th 18
9.99341103 AFL Lab West Coast
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 18th 18

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-16.6 Graft Collingwood
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 1st 0
-14.9 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-14.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st -1
-13.4 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 3rd -1
-12.6 AFL Lab Collingwood
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 1st 0
-12.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.9 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.4 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.3 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.1 Graft Collingwood
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 1st -1
-10.8 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-10.5 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 3rd 0
-10.4 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st -1
-9.8 Live Ladders Collingwood
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 1st 0
-9.6 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 3rd 0
-9.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st -1
-8.7 Squiggle Collingwood
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 1st 0
-8.7 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 3rd -1
-8.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 2
-7.9 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 0
-7.9 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st -1
-7.8 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 3

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
35.3 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
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 9th 10
34.9 The Footycast St Kilda
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 15th 4
33.4 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
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 9th 8
32.9 Live Ladders St Kilda
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 15th 4
32.3 Graft St Kilda
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 15th 4
31.9 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
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 15th 4
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 10
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 11
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 12
31.2 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 8
31.1 AFL Lab St Kilda
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 15th 4
30.7 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 3
30.3 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th 4
29.8 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th 2
29.6 Live Ladders St Kilda
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 15th 3
29.4 What Snoo Thinks St Kilda
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 15th 5
29.3 Matter of Stats St Kilda
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 15th 4
29.2 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th -1
29.0 Wheelo Ratings St Kilda
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 15th 4
29.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th -1
29.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 0
28.6 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 4
28.4 Graft Western Bulldogs
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 9th 8
28.1 Stattraction St Kilda
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 15th 4
27.6 ZaphBot Sydney
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 10th -1
27.5 Graft Western Bulldogs
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 9th 10

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-53.2 Graft Collingwood
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-49.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-48.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-47.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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 1st 0
-47.5 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st -1
-46.8 ZaphBot Adelaide
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-45.2 AFL Lab Collingwood
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-44.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-43.7 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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-43.7 ZaphBot Collingwood
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-42.8 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 0
-42.7 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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-42.2 Graft Collingwood
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-41.5 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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-40.9 ZaphBot Adelaide
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-40.7 Stattraction Collingwood
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-39.6 Live Ladders Collingwood
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-39.2 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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-38.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-37.4 Squiggle Collingwood
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-37.3 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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-37.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-35.7 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-35.7 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-35.7 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 3