LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Adelaide Geelong Collingwood Fremantle Brisbane Lions Gold Coast Hawthorn Greater Western Sydney Western Bulldogs Sydney St Kilda Port Adelaide Melbourne Carlton Essendon Richmond North Melbourne West Coast
Squiggle 156.9 4.3 4.1 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.1 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.5 2.9 7.4 6.7 2.2 7.5 6.8 7.2 7.4 3.8 7.6 6.6 7.6 7.4 5.0 6.7 8.4 7.7 8.9
Live Ladders 156.1 3.9 3.5 5.2 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.2 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.5 1.4 7.9 6.4 0.9 7.8 7.1 5.5 7.7 5.0 7.8 6.0 7.5 7.7 4.9 6.4 9.0 9.0 9.3
Wheelo Ratings 152.1 3.8 3.6 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.2 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.6 6.9 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.2 8.3 3.1 7.1 6.0 1.3 7.6 6.8 7.0 7.4 3.3 7.7 6.3 7.7 7.5 3.6 6.6 8.4 7.9 9.1
Graft 150.9 2.9 2.9 5.1 5.6 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.9 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.2 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.3 8.4 3.7 6.2 5.4 1.1 7.6 6.7 7.1 6.9 3.0 6.7 6.3 7.3 7.0 4.2 7.3 8.7 8.6 9.6
AFL Lab 149.4 3.5 3.1 4.5 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.6 0.9 7.8 6.0 -0.9 7.2 6.9 7.1 7.4 3.9 7.5 6.3 6.6 7.6 4.8 5.8 8.7 9.1 9.2
Glicko Ratings 148.3 4.0 3.7 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.8 5.9 5.3 5.7 5.4 5.5 5.8 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.4 8.0 8.0 8.4 8.2 2.5 6.3 5.9 2.6 7.6 6.6 6.9 7.3 3.5 7.8 5.7 7.7 7.5 2.3 5.1 8.6 8.0 9.2
Winnable 147.9 4.0 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.5 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.4 1.5 6.4 6.6 2.2 7.6 6.5 6.3 7.4 1.9 7.4 6.2 7.7 7.7 2.7 6.9 8.6 7.9 9.3
Stattraction 147.0 3.2 2.8 4.6 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.7 6.0 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.5 6.0 6.6 7.0 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.4 1.7 5.9 5.5 0.6 7.4 6.4 5.7 7.8 2.5 7.5 6.7 7.5 7.6 4.5 6.1 8.8 8.7 9.5
ZaphBot 144.0 2.4 2.7 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.6 6.0 6.4 7.1 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.5 -1.0 8.0 4.8 0.8 5.3 6.0 3.5 7.3 6.0 5.9 7.0 7.0 7.7 5.5 8.4 8.6 7.6 9.7
Matter of Stats 142.3 3.5 3.3 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.6 7.0 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.3 2.1 6.7 5.9 0.8 7.6 6.8 6.7 7.5 2.5 7.6 6.3 7.3 7.3 3.1 7.1 8.5 8.4 9.2
PlusSixOne 141.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 1.9 5.1 5.6 3.5 7.0 5.7 7.0 6.7 5.0 7.0 5.9 6.8 6.8 3.4 5.5 7.4 7.4 8.2
The Footycast 140.9 3.6 3.2 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.2 5.7 5.7 6.5 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.7 7.7 2.8 5.9 5.5 1.8 7.4 6.4 6.1 6.3 4.5 6.5 6.0 7.4 6.9 4.1 6.7 8.5 8.1 9.2
Don't Blame the Data 134.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.1 5.4 5.1 5.6 5.7 6.3 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.4 -0.2 5.3 6.2 0.4 7.0 6.8 5.4 7.3 3.7 7.3 5.7 7.0 7.5 5.6 3.7 8.9 8.8 9.1
Elo Predicts! 133.5 2.1 2.3 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.0 4.5 5.7 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.7 6.0 6.2 7.0 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.4 -2.2 7.9 4.4 -1.6 5.6 5.3 5.1 6.3 2.9 5.8 7.2 7.7 6.7 2.4 8.7 9.2 9.0 9.7
What Snoo Thinks 130.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 -0.5 8.0 5.5 0.4 7.8 6.3 6.3 6.7 -0.4 6.6 6.8 7.3 6.9 0.3 6.7 8.8 8.9 9.4
Informed Stats 128.1 4.6 4.8 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.9 7.4 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.1 9.0 8.8 1.0 6.3 6.4 2.4 7.1 7.1 5.9 7.8 2.4 7.3 6.6 7.6 7.8 4.4 6.8 9.2 9.3 10.0
Ladder 83.6 -3.1 -1.8 2.2 1.2 1.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.2 2.5 3.5 4.8 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.8 5.8 5.8 6.4 8.0 10.0 1.9 0.2 4.8 -4.6 2.2 4.0 2.3 4.0 5.5 4.4 2.3 5.5 5.0 3.6 2.2 7.2 5.1 9.7
AFLalytics 8.1 3.5 4.6 -3.8 2.5 0.4 0.7 6.8 4.0 5.7 5.6 4.5 5.7 6.1 5.0 5.0 2.7 3.8 5.2 7.0 5.9

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 13
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 14
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 15
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 18
10.00000000 Squiggle West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Glicko Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Squiggle West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 ZaphBot West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Glicko Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Wheelo Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Matter of Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Squiggle West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 21
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Stattraction West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Winnable West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 ZaphBot West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Wheelo Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 AFL Lab West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Live Ladders West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 PlusSixOne West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Glicko Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-19.3 ZaphBot Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-16.3 ZaphBot Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-15.5 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-14.5 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-12.6 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 1
-11.9 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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16
17
18
 4th 3
-11.6 ZaphBot Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
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12
13
14
15
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17
18
 1st 1
-10.9 Informed Stats Adelaide
1
2
3
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5
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9
10
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14
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18
 1st 5
-10.8 Graft Collingwood
1
2
3
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5
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9
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13
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18
 3rd 0
-10.5 Live Ladders Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
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13
14
15
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18
 1st -1
-10.4 Live Ladders Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 1st 0
-10.3 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 4th 8
-10.3 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 1st 5
-10.1 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
2
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8
9
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18
 4th 9
-9.9 Informed Stats Adelaide
1
2
3
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9
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18
 1st 7
-9.6 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
9
10
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18
 4th 9
-9.5 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
1
2
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 1st 1
-9.0 ZaphBot Collingwood
1
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18
 3rd 0
-8.8 Stattraction Adelaide
1
2
3
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7
8
9
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18
 1st 0
-8.8 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
1
2
3
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18
 1st 0
-8.8 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
1
2
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18
 1st -1
-8.8 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
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18
 4th 8
-8.7 ZaphBot Adelaide
1
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18
 1st 2
-8.6 AFL Lab Fremantle
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 4th 9
-8.3 Graft Fremantle
1
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 4th 9

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
35.3 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9th 10
33.4 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
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7
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9
10
11
12
13
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18
 9th 8
31.8 What Snoo Thinks Carlton
1
2
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18
 14th -1
31.8 What Snoo Thinks Carlton
1
2
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18
 14th 0
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
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5
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9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 9th 10
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 9th 11
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
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18
 9th 12
31.5 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
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8
9
10
11
12
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18
 14th -1
30.3 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 10th 4
30.2 Glicko Ratings Carlton
1
2
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 14th 0
30.1 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
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9
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 14th 0
29.8 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
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8
9
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18
 10th 2
29.4 Glicko Ratings Carlton
1
2
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9
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 14th -1
29.2 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
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5
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9
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11
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13
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18
 10th -1
29.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
9
10
11
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13
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18
 9th -1
29.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
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5
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9
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18
 9th 0
28.4 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
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18
 9th 8
27.9 Glicko Ratings Carlton
1
2
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 14th 7
27.8 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
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 7th 4
27.6 ZaphBot Sydney
1
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 10th -1
27.6 The Footycast Carlton
1
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 14th -1
27.5 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
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 9th 10
27.5 The Footycast Carlton
1
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 14th 0
27.5 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
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18
 9th 9
27.2 Winnable Carlton
1
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 14th 7
26.9 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 9th 8

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-58.5 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 1st -1
-52.6 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 1st 0
-50.9 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 1st 0
-49.0 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 1st -1
-45.1 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 1st 1
-43.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 4th 3
-43.3 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 1st 1
-41.8 Informed Stats Adelaide
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 1st 5
-41.6 Graft Collingwood
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 3rd 0
-41.0 Live Ladders Adelaide
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 1st -1
-40.8 Live Ladders Adelaide
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 1st 0
-40.6 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 4th 8
-40.5 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 1st 5
-40.1 Informed Stats Fremantle
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 4th 9
-39.9 Informed Stats Adelaide
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 1st 7
-39.3 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 4th 9
-39.1 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
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 1st 1
-38.1 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 3rd 0
-37.7 Stattraction Adelaide
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 1st 0
-37.6 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
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 1st 0
-37.6 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
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 1st -1
-37.5 Informed Stats Fremantle
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 4th 8
-37.3 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 1st 2
-37.2 AFL Lab Fremantle
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 4th 9
-36.6 Graft Fremantle
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 4th 9