LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Adelaide Geelong Brisbane Lions Collingwood Greater Western Sydney Fremantle Gold Coast Hawthorn Western Bulldogs Sydney Carlton St Kilda Port Adelaide Melbourne Essendon North Melbourne Richmond West Coast
Squiggle 177.5 4.3 4.3 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.8 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.2 8.8 10.0 3.4 7.6 6.7 6.2 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.5 4.1 7.8 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.4 6.9 8.7 9.2 9.0
Wheelo Ratings 176.4 4.0 3.8 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.6 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.8 10.0 3.6 7.3 6.7 5.9 5.3 5.4 6.1 6.5 3.6 7.9 7.4 7.2 7.8 7.6 6.8 8.9 8.8 9.2
Graft 176.0 3.3 3.3 5.5 6.1 5.9 5.9 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.0 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.0 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.5 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.1 8.7 10.0 4.1 6.5 6.7 5.0 6.3 5.3 6.5 6.5 3.3 6.9 7.7 7.4 6.9 7.2 7.5 9.1 9.3 9.7
Live Ladders 175.9 3.8 3.6 5.2 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.1 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.6 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.1 8.8 10.0 2.0 8.0 7.0 5.7 6.1 5.4 6.3 4.3 5.2 8.0 7.9 6.9 7.3 7.7 6.6 8.8 9.0 9.4
The Footycast 175.4 3.9 3.7 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.6 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.5 7.2 7.5 7.5 8.1 8.1 8.5 8.5 10.0 3.7 6.3 7.1 5.2 6.9 5.8 7.0 5.4 4.9 6.9 7.3 7.0 7.0 7.3 7.1 8.8 8.5 9.3
ZaphBot 174.2 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.5 6.6 6.3 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.8 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.8 10.0 -0.2 8.2 8.1 5.5 6.2 5.5 6.0 1.9 6.2 6.2 8.0 7.9 6.2 8.3 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.7
Glicko Ratings 174.1 4.5 4.3 5.4 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.4 6.4 5.7 6.1 5.9 5.6 6.0 6.6 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.5 8.3 8.3 8.4 7.9 8.7 10.0 3.0 6.5 7.1 5.6 5.3 6.2 5.8 6.2 3.8 8.0 7.1 7.4 8.0 7.6 5.5 8.9 9.2 9.3
Matter of Stats 173.9 3.7 3.5 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.9 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.1 8.8 10.0 3.0 7.1 6.8 5.6 5.4 5.3 6.2 6.1 3.0 7.9 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.4 9.0 8.7 9.3
Winnable 170.4 4.1 4.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.5 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.0 8.7 10.0 2.1 6.7 7.2 6.1 3.5 6.0 6.3 5.3 2.4 7.6 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.1 8.8 9.2 9.4
Stattraction 168.6 3.3 3.1 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.3 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 6.0 6.7 7.0 6.8 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.3 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.1 8.8 10.0 2.3 6.2 7.7 5.2 4.3 5.2 5.9 4.4 2.9 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.2 8.1 6.4 9.1 9.2 9.5
AFL Lab 168.3 3.4 3.1 4.5 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.8 6.7 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.7 10.0 1.6 8.0 7.9 5.6 4.6 3.9 7.0 6.2 4.2 7.7 7.6 6.8 6.0 7.3 6.1 8.7 8.2 9.3
Elo Predicts! 165.4 2.8 3.0 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.9 6.4 5.0 5.0 5.1 6.0 6.3 6.2 7.1 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.6 8.5 8.2 8.5 8.4 9.0 10.0 -1.3 8.1 8.1 4.0 6.1 3.9 6.0 3.6 3.3 6.1 7.5 8.4 7.5 7.1 8.8 8.6 8.9 9.7
Don't Blame the Data 164.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.4 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.1 8.5 10.0 1.0 5.8 8.0 5.8 6.2 5.1 6.4 4.0 4.3 7.6 7.1 7.1 6.2 8.0 4.3 8.9 9.2 9.2
PlusSixOne 163.6 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.4 8.9 10.0 2.5 5.5 6.1 6.0 5.5 6.3 6.2 6.7 5.2 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.8 5.9 8.2 7.3 8.3
What Snoo Thinks 161.9 3.5 3.5 3.6 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 8.5 8.5 10.0 0.7 8.2 6.4 4.9 3.5 5.3 6.3 5.3 0.5 7.0 6.9 7.8 7.8 7.4 7.1 8.8 8.6 9.5
Informed Stats 146.2 4.9 5.2 6.1 5.4 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.5 6.3 6.9 6.6 7.2 7.2 6.9 7.5 8.2 8.1 8.2 7.7 8.7 10.0 1.8 6.7 6.8 5.5 5.2 6.1 6.0 5.0 3.1 7.5 7.7 7.4 7.9 8.5 7.1 8.8 8.7 10.0
Ladder 106.5 -1.8 -1.4 2.2 1.5 1.5 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 4.1 5.8 5.8 6.1 5.4 5.4 6.1 6.1 6.7 6.7 7.1 8.4 10.0 2.6 0.9 6.4 3.9 3.8 1.2 2.9 -0.1 5.8 4.8 5.1 4.1 4.8 6.0 2.8 5.9 6.1 9.8
AFLalytics 18.5 3.5 4.9 10.0 0.8 5.0 7.3 4.9 6.8 5.9 6.6 6.4 6.3 7.1 7.2 7.2 6.0 5.9 5.8 8.4 5.7 7.3

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 13
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 14
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 15
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 18
10.00000000 Squiggle West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Glicko Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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15
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18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
9
10
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18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Squiggle West Coast
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
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18
 18th 20
10.00000000 ZaphBot West Coast
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
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 18th 20
10.00000000 Glicko Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
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5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
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18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Wheelo Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
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18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
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5
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8
9
10
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18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 Matter of Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
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 18th 20
10.00000000 Squiggle West Coast
1
2
3
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5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
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18
 10th 21
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Stattraction West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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18
 18th 21
10.00000000 Winnable West Coast
1
2
3
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5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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18
 18th 21
10.00000000 ZaphBot West Coast
1
2
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9
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 18th 21
10.00000000 Wheelo Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
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 18th 21
10.00000000 AFL Lab West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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 18th 21
10.00000000 Live Ladders West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
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18
 18th 21
10.00000000 PlusSixOne West Coast
1
2
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9
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 18th 21
10.00000000 Glicko Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
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7
8
9
10
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 18th 21

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-19.3 ZaphBot Adelaide
1
2
3
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6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
14
15
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18
 1st -1
-16.3 ZaphBot Adelaide
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18
 1st 0
-15.5 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
1
2
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18
 1st 0
-14.5 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
1
2
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9
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18
 1st -1
-12.6 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
1
2
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 1st 1
-11.6 ZaphBot Adelaide
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18
 1st 1
-10.9 Informed Stats Adelaide
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 1st 5
-10.5 Live Ladders Adelaide
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 1st -1
-10.4 Live Ladders Adelaide
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 1st 0
-10.3 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
1
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 1st 5
-9.9 Informed Stats Adelaide
1
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 1st 7
-9.5 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
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 1st 1
-8.8 Stattraction Adelaide
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 1st 0
-8.8 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
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 1st 0
-8.8 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
1
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 1st -1
-8.7 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 1st 2
-8.1 AFL Lab Adelaide
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 1st 0
-8.1 Don't Blame the Data Adelaide
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 1st 1
-8.1 Don't Blame the Data Adelaide
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 1st 0
-8.1 Don't Blame the Data Adelaide
1
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 1st -1
-8.0 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 1st 7
-8.0 Graft Collingwood
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 4th 0
-7.6 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
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 9th 10
-7.6 AFL Lab Adelaide
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 1st -1
-7.4 Stattraction Adelaide
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 1st -1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
35.3 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
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 9th 10
33.7 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 8th 4
33.4 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
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 9th 8
32.7 ZaphBot Hawthorn
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 8th 3
31.8 ZaphBot Hawthorn
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 8th 4
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
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 9th 10
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
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 9th 11
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
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 9th 12
31.3 ZaphBot Hawthorn
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 8th 2
30.7 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
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 8th 2
30.3 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th 4
29.8 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
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 10th 2
29.7 Informed Stats Hawthorn
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 8th 9
29.4 ZaphBot Port Adelaide
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 13th 0
29.3 ZaphBot Hawthorn
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 8th 5
29.2 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
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 10th -1
29.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th -1
29.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 0
28.4 Graft Western Bulldogs
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 9th 8
28.1 ZaphBot Hawthorn
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 8th 9
27.7 ZaphBot Hawthorn
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 8th 1
27.6 ZaphBot Sydney
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 10th -1
27.6 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
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 8th 3
27.5 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
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27.5 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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27.4 ZaphBot Hawthorn
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 8th 6

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-58.5 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 1st -1
-52.6 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 1st 0
-50.9 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 1st 0
-49.0 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 1st -1
-45.1 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 1st 1
-43.3 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 1st 1
-41.8 Informed Stats Adelaide
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 1st 5
-41.0 Live Ladders Adelaide
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 1st -1
-40.8 Live Ladders Adelaide
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 1st 0
-40.5 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 1st 5
-39.9 Informed Stats Adelaide
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 1st 7
-39.1 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
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 1st 1
-37.7 Stattraction Adelaide
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 1st 0
-37.6 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
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 1st 0
-37.6 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
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 1st -1
-37.3 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 1st 2
-36.3 AFL Lab Adelaide
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 1st 0
-36.3 Don't Blame the Data Adelaide
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 1st 1
-36.3 Don't Blame the Data Adelaide
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 1st 0
-36.3 Don't Blame the Data Adelaide
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 1st -1
-35.9 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 1st 7
-35.9 Graft Collingwood
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 4th 0
-35.2 AFL Lab Adelaide
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 1st -1
-34.9 Stattraction Adelaide
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 1st -1
-34.8 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 1st 4