LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Brisbane Lions Collingwood Hawthorn Gold Coast Adelaide Western Bulldogs Geelong Greater Western Sydney Fremantle St Kilda Essendon Port Adelaide Carlton Sydney Melbourne Richmond North Melbourne West Coast
Live Ladders 63.0 4.7 4.7 6.0 6.3 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.4 3.1 4.2 7.9 5.6 5.0 6.5 3.9 6.9 7.0 6.6 7.1 6.3 6.4 3.7 6.8 8.9 9.0 8.5
Glicko Ratings 59.3 4.3 4.3 5.4 5.6 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.7 7.0 3.9 2.3 6.8 5.3 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.0 6.8 5.6 7.2 7.3 2.3 2.8 7.1 8.6 7.5 8.3
AFL Lab 57.5 4.0 3.8 5.0 5.5 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.7 6.8 5.6 2.9 6.4 3.1 5.1 6.8 4.2 6.7 5.6 6.5 6.9 4.2 5.7 2.7 5.7 8.1 9.0 8.3
Matter of Stats 57.4 4.0 4.0 5.6 5.6 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.5 6.6 3.8 2.5 7.0 3.3 6.1 6.6 5.8 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.0 4.0 0.8 6.6 8.3 8.2 8.4
Wheelo Ratings 57.3 4.1 4.0 5.5 5.4 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.8 2.6 2.1 6.6 4.6 6.3 6.6 5.5 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.7 6.9 4.3 1.3 6.4 8.2 7.5 8.1
Squiggle 57.2 4.0 3.9 5.9 5.6 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.8 2.2 4.6 6.2 4.8 6.8 6.5 4.8 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.7 5.5 0.7 5.4 8.1 6.9 7.6
Winnable 57.0 4.1 4.2 5.5 5.4 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.6 4.7 4.4 7.5 2.1 5.9 6.7 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.1 6.6 6.7 2.8 -1.7 7.2 8.5 7.0 8.6
Don't Blame the Data 55.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 6.3 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.2 6.5 2.7 7.8 3.3 4.8 6.5 6.8 6.5 6.8 6.5 7.4 5.0 5.8 0.8 7.1 8.8 8.7 8.0
Stattraction 53.3 3.7 3.7 5.4 6.0 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.1 5.5 0.7 7.9 2.9 5.6 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.0 6.6 7.3 6.1 5.6 -2.3 7.0 8.9 8.8 8.8
The Footycast 53.3 3.3 3.3 4.7 5.1 6.0 5.6 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.9 2.9 2.0 6.9 1.2 6.5 6.4 5.9 4.6 6.7 6.7 5.7 6.5 4.7 -1.8 6.5 8.3 7.9 8.5
Graft 52.8 2.4 2.7 4.8 5.2 6.0 5.9 6.3 6.2 6.6 6.6 3.1 1.5 5.9 2.5 6.8 6.3 6.1 5.2 6.9 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.4 -4.6 4.9 9.0 8.8 9.3
What Snoo Thinks 48.0 3.6 3.6 4.0 5.7 5.7 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.2 3.5 1.8 7.5 0.3 5.1 6.1 4.7 6.3 6.8 6.9 6.4 7.2 2.1 -3.0 8.1 8.9 8.7 8.9
ZaphBot 46.5 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.7 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.8 6.5 6.8 8.6 -2.6 8.2 -1.1 2.3 6.4 2.7 5.6 7.7 7.2 4.2 4.6 6.9 -9.1 7.6 8.5 6.7 9.3
PlusSixOne 43.4 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.6 1.4 1.0 3.2 1.0 5.0 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.2 5.8 6.0 5.1 3.3 0.3 3.4 5.9 6.3 6.2
Elo Predicts! 43.1 1.9 2.4 3.3 2.8 4.5 4.3 5.3 6.2 6.6 5.9 8.5 0.3 7.9 -3.5 2.3 6.3 3.6 4.0 6.7 6.0 2.7 7.0 2.4 -9.2 5.0 9.4 8.9 9.2
Informed Stats 39.8 6.8 6.1 6.6 6.4 6.9 7.1 7.4 5.0 8.0 6.8 4.2 5.5 7.1 6.9 6.9 5.5 7.0 7.8 5.4 -1.9 9.0 9.5 9.6 10.0
Ladder 32.2 -2.1 -1.4 1.2 2.8 3.5 4.4 6.4 7.4 10.0 2.8 3.5 5.1 5.1 7.4 -0.8 6.4 -2.1 2.8 1.8 3.5 5.4 4.8 0.2 4.8 4.8 -0.5 9.3
AFLalytics 8.9 3.7 5.2 2.7 -1.9 5.7 1.1 4.2 6.5 6.1 5.6 6.1 5.9 6.2 5.0 4.1 2.3 2.2 5.2 7.0 5.9

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.99870294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.98751765 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 2
9.98384424 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 4
9.98337941 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.97663529 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 4
9.97384859 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
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6
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 18th 7
9.96852647 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
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8
9
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11
12
13
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18
 17th 7
9.96459129 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
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6
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8
9
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 18th 5
9.95084118 ZaphBot West Coast
1
2
3
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5
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9
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 18th 7
9.94722282 Informed Stats North Melbourne
1
2
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9
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 17th 7
9.93545174 ZaphBot West Coast
1
2
3
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5
6
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8
9
10
11
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13
14
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 18th 6
9.92569365 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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11
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 18th 3
9.91921447 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
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 18th 6
9.91638835 Informed Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 17th 6
9.87212353 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 3
9.83850988 Informed Stats Melbourne
1
2
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8
9
10
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18
 15th 5
9.82749706 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
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8
9
10
11
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18
 15th 6
9.82564118 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 15th 7
9.80874706 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
2
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5
6
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8
9
10
11
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13
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18
 16th 7
9.80745047 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
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8
9
10
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18
 16th 6
9.80571824 Informed Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
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8
9
10
11
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 17th 4
9.79271976 Informed Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 17th 5
9.76527918 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
3
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8
9
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18
 16th 5
9.75825247 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
3
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8
9
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 16th 7
9.74876176 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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18
 15th 4

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-16.9 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 4
-16.6 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 2
-16.0 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th -1
-15.3 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th -1
-15.0 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 3
-14.6 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 14th 2
-14.4 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
3
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8
9
10
11
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13
14
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18
 14th 3
-14.1 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
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18
 14th 1
-13.9 Graft Sydney
1
2
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5
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8
9
10
11
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18
 14th -1
-13.9 ZaphBot Sydney
1
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 14th 4
-13.7 Graft Collingwood
1
2
3
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 2nd 0
-12.8 Informed Stats Sydney
1
2
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8
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 14th 4
-12.6 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th -1
-12.4 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 0
-11.9 ZaphBot Collingwood
1
2
3
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8
9
10
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12
13
14
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17
18
 2nd 0
-11.1 Stattraction Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
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12
13
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15
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 2nd 0
-11.0 The Footycast Collingwood
1
2
3
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5
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9
10
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13
14
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18
 2nd 0
-10.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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17
18
 2nd -1
-10.6 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
11
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13
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 4th 2
-10.4 The Footycast Sydney
1
2
3
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 14th -1
-10.1 Graft Sydney
1
2
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 14th 4
-10.0 ZaphBot Gold Coast
1
2
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 4th 1
-9.7 AFL Lab Collingwood
1
2
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 2nd 0
-9.3 ZaphBot Sydney
1
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 14th 5
-9.1 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
1
2
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9
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 2nd 1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
53.7 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 4
53.3 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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18
 14th 2
52.1 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
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9
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11
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13
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18
 14th -1
50.6 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
3
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18
 14th -1
50.1 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
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9
10
11
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13
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18
 14th 3
49.1 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
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 14th 2
48.9 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
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 14th 3
48.1 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
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 14th 1
47.9 Graft Sydney
1
2
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 14th -1
47.7 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
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 14th 4
45.5 Informed Stats Sydney
1
2
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 14th 4
40.9 The Footycast Sydney
1
2
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 14th -1
40.2 Graft Sydney
1
2
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 14th 4
38.5 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
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 14th 5
37.6 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
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18
 14th 5
35.6 The Footycast Sydney
1
2
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 14th 4
35.3 Informed Stats Sydney
1
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 14th 3
34.9 Winnable Sydney
1
2
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 14th 4
34.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
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18
 14th 1
33.7 Stattraction Sydney
1
2
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 14th 4
33.5 Graft Sydney
1
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 14th 2
33.4 Stattraction Sydney
1
2
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 14th -1
33.2 ZaphBot Sydney
1
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 14th 0
32.8 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
1
2
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 14th -1
32.8 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
1
2
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 14th 0
32.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
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9
10
11
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13
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18
 14th 0

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-47.3 Graft Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 0
-45.2 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th -1
-44.8 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 0
-43.9 ZaphBot Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 0
-42.2 Stattraction Collingwood
1
2
3
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10
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17
18
 2nd 0
-42.1 The Footycast Collingwood
1
2
3
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18
 2nd 0
-41.7 ZaphBot Collingwood
1
2
3
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18
 2nd -1
-41.2 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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9
10
11
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18
 4th 2
-40.0 ZaphBot Gold Coast
1
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 4th 1
-39.4 AFL Lab Collingwood
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 2nd 0
-38.2 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 2nd 1
-38.0 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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-37.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 2nd 1
-37.0 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-36.9 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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-36.6 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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-36.6 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 4th -1
-36.5 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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-36.5 Graft Collingwood
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-35.9 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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-35.3 ZaphBot Adelaide
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-35.2 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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-35.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 2nd -1
-33.8 Live Ladders Collingwood
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 2nd 0
-33.3 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 4th 1