LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Collingwood Brisbane Lions Adelaide Gold Coast Geelong Hawthorn Greater Western Sydney Fremantle Western Bulldogs Essendon Melbourne Carlton St Kilda Sydney Port Adelaide Richmond North Melbourne West Coast
Live Ladders 82.0 3.7 3.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.5 7.5 7.7 4.2 5.2 2.6 6.4 6.9 5.1 7.5 6.6 4.8 5.8 4.5 7.2 5.3 3.9 2.8 9.0 9.1 8.8
Squiggle 80.5 3.8 3.7 6.1 5.3 5.5 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.9 7.2 4.4 4.4 5.2 5.7 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 3.7 5.7 4.9 6.4 6.0 1.8 4.5 8.3 7.3 8.1
Glicko Ratings 75.0 4.1 4.0 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.2 7.0 1.9 5.6 4.5 5.8 7.1 6.7 6.7 6.7 3.6 6.9 3.5 4.5 7.4 3.0 5.0 8.6 7.7 8.6
Winnable 73.2 3.5 3.5 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.0 5.9 6.8 6.8 4.1 6.0 3.2 3.7 7.1 6.1 5.9 6.7 1.3 5.5 4.4 5.0 7.1 -0.5 3.5 8.5 7.5 8.9
Don't Blame the Data 71.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.5 2.7 7.7 2.0 4.6 7.5 5.6 7.1 5.9 2.7 7.2 3.6 6.9 6.7 2.1 0.6 8.9 8.8 8.5
Wheelo Ratings 71.2 3.6 3.5 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.0 6.9 1.5 4.5 4.8 5.4 7.1 6.7 6.9 6.1 3.7 5.7 4.2 5.6 5.4 1.7 4.8 8.3 7.7 8.4
AFL Lab 69.0 3.2 3.0 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.7 5.7 6.1 5.8 6.2 6.3 7.2 2.6 7.0 2.3 4.0 7.0 6.9 6.2 4.4 3.6 6.4 5.5 6.6 4.2 3.1 -0.3 8.3 9.1 8.6
Stattraction 68.0 2.9 2.7 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.7 6.0 5.9 5.6 6.1 6.0 7.1 1.4 7.1 3.1 4.4 7.3 5.2 6.6 6.2 1.8 6.3 3.4 6.6 6.1 -1.0 2.5 8.9 8.9 9.1
Matter of Stats 67.7 3.3 3.2 5.2 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.8 2.3 5.3 4.0 4.4 7.1 6.5 7.0 6.1 2.5 4.9 3.5 5.4 5.9 1.3 2.3 8.4 8.4 8.7
The Footycast 66.0 2.9 2.7 4.5 4.1 4.7 4.4 5.3 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.4 7.5 1.9 5.4 5.4 2.5 7.1 5.9 6.3 6.1 4.5 4.6 2.6 6.0 5.2 0.1 2.8 8.5 8.1 8.8
Graft 65.4 2.3 2.5 5.0 4.6 4.7 4.7 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.6 6.1 6.1 7.1 1.7 4.9 5.3 3.8 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.1 2.4 4.3 3.1 6.4 6.3 -3.0 1.6 8.9 8.8 9.4
PlusSixOne 64.6 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.4 6.6 0.8 3.7 3.1 2.2 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.4 5.1 5.6 5.7 4.7 4.5 1.3 1.5 6.5 6.8 6.9
What Snoo Thinks 60.0 2.5 2.5 2.8 4.5 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 2.6 4.4 2.3 2.1 7.0 6.1 6.8 6.2 0.2 4.5 1.6 4.4 6.6 -2.1 3.3 8.9 8.9 9.1
ZaphBot 52.2 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.6 5.1 5.1 5.7 6.0 6.8 -3.0 8.9 -1.2 1.1 7.0 2.4 7.2 6.9 6.0 2.2 3.2 7.5 6.7 -6.8 -1.0 8.6 7.1 9.5
Ladder 51.2 -1.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.8 2.8 5.8 6.4 5.8 5.8 6.7 8.7 10.0 4.1 5.9 4.6 6.2 4.3 2.1 2.5 2.3 3.4 3.7 -0.2 4.6 3.7 2.5 2.5 6.4 2.8 9.5
Informed Stats 50.7 4.5 4.5 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.8 5.5 7.6 4.5 7.1 0.9 7.3 7.3 5.1 7.2 6.4 -0.4 5.0 3.1 6.9 5.4 -0.2 6.4 9.5 9.6 10.0
Elo Predicts! 50.4 1.7 2.0 3.2 2.2 2.6 3.0 4.1 5.4 4.8 4.0 4.8 5.9 6.7 0.9 8.8 -2.4 -1.3 7.3 4.9 6.0 5.7 2.0 0.1 2.2 5.0 7.6 -6.9 2.0 9.4 9.0 9.4
AFLalytics 8.3 3.2 5.0 -4.6 4.7 1.0 1.1 6.1 6.4 5.9 5.7 4.5 5.8 6.1 5.2 5.2 2.3 0.9 5.2 7.0 5.9

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
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6
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8
9
10
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12
13
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 18th 6
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 9
9.99950294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 10
9.99950000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 11
9.99870294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 7
9.99869718 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 9
9.99550000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 8
9.98751765 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 2
9.98384424 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 4
9.98337941 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 5
9.98208115 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 9
9.97795282 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 8
9.97663529 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 4
9.97384859 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 7
9.96852647 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 17th 7
9.96459129 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 5
9.96406176 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 8
9.96228824 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 17th 9
9.95084118 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 7
9.94899424 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 10
9.94722282 Informed Stats North Melbourne
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 17th 7
9.94018879 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 10
9.93904718 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 11
9.93545174 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 6
9.92569365 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 3
9.91921447 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 6

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-16.9 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 14th 4
-16.6 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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18
 14th 2
-16.6 Graft Collingwood
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 1st 0
-16.0 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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18
 14th -1
-15.3 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th -1
-15.0 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
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 14th 3
-14.9 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-14.6 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 2
-14.4 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 3
-14.1 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 1
-14.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.9 Graft Sydney
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 14th -1
-13.9 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 4
-13.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st -1
-13.4 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 3rd -1
-12.8 Informed Stats Sydney
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 14th 4
-12.6 AFL Lab Collingwood
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 1st 0
-12.6 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 4th -1
-12.4 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 4th 0
-12.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.9 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.4 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.3 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
53.7 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
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 14th 4
53.3 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 14th 2
52.1 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 14th -1
50.6 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th -1
50.1 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 14th 3
49.1 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 2
48.9 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 3
48.1 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 1
47.9 Graft Sydney
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 14th -1
47.7 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 4
45.5 Informed Stats Sydney
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 14th 4
40.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 14th -1
40.8 ZaphBot Port Adelaide
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 15th 0
40.2 Graft Sydney
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 14th 4
38.5 ZaphBot Sydney
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 14th 5
37.9 AFL Lab Port Adelaide
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 15th 0
37.6 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 14th 5
36.8 AFL Lab Port Adelaide
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 15th -1
36.4 ZaphBot Port Adelaide
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 15th -1
35.6 Graft Port Adelaide
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 15th -1
35.6 The Footycast Sydney
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 14th 4
35.4 Graft Port Adelaide
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 15th 0
35.3 Informed Stats Sydney
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 14th 3
35.3 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
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 9th 10
34.9 Winnable Sydney
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 14th 4
34.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 14th 1

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-53.2 Graft Collingwood
1
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 1st 0
-49.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-48.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-47.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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 1st 0
-47.5 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st -1
-46.8 ZaphBot Adelaide
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-45.2 AFL Lab Collingwood
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 1st 0
-45.2 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 4th -1
-44.8 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 4th 0
-44.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 1
-43.7 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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 1st 0
-43.7 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 1
-42.8 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 0
-42.7 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-42.2 Graft Collingwood
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 1st -1
-41.5 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-41.2 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 4th 2
-40.9 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 3rd 0
-40.7 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st -1
-40.0 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 4th 1
-39.6 Live Ladders Collingwood
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 1st 0
-39.2 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 3rd 0
-38.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st -1
-37.4 Squiggle Collingwood
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 1st 0
-37.3 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 3rd -1