LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Collingwood Brisbane Lions Geelong Adelaide Hawthorn Fremantle Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Western Bulldogs Carlton Sydney Port Adelaide Essendon Melbourne St Kilda North Melbourne Richmond West Coast
Live Ladders 111.3 4.3 4.1 5.6 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.9 7.8 8.1 5.2 4.9 8.0 5.3 6.6 4.2 6.0 7.5 4.6 7.3 7.5 6.9 7.8 7.3 2.3 8.6 8.9 9.0
Winnable 110.0 4.9 4.9 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.5 7.5 5.1 5.5 6.7 5.8 7.0 5.2 6.0 6.9 1.1 7.1 5.8 7.2 7.8 7.4 5.1 8.5 9.1 9.1
Squiggle 109.6 4.8 4.7 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.6 6.3 6.8 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.7 5.2 4.4 7.8 6.8 6.9 5.1 5.6 7.1 3.4 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.6 6.6 3.3 8.4 9.1 8.4
Wheelo Ratings 106.4 4.2 4.0 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.2 6.6 6.9 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.5 7.4 7.6 3.3 4.4 7.3 6.6 6.8 4.4 5.7 6.9 3.0 7.2 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.0 3.0 8.5 8.4 8.7
Glicko Ratings 103.0 4.9 4.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.6 3.3 5.3 6.5 6.4 6.8 5.2 5.3 6.7 3.2 6.8 7.2 7.2 6.7 7.1 5.8 8.6 9.0 8.8
Don't Blame the Data 100.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.9 5.9 5.7 6.3 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.3 7.9 7.8 3.9 7.4 6.3 4.6 7.1 3.4 5.8 7.2 2.7 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.6 7.4 4.4 8.6 9.0 8.8
Matter of Stats 99.1 4.0 3.9 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.4 3.5 4.9 6.9 6.1 6.8 4.1 6.0 7.1 2.0 7.2 6.6 6.6 7.8 6.9 3.3 8.6 8.1 8.9
Stattraction 99.0 3.8 3.5 5.5 5.8 5.6 5.5 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.8 7.8 2.9 6.7 6.2 5.6 6.7 3.9 5.3 7.3 1.7 7.3 5.8 6.8 7.6 7.5 3.1 8.9 8.9 9.3
The Footycast 97.6 3.9 3.7 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.1 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.9 3.2 5.3 6.5 6.8 6.4 4.2 6.1 5.8 4.2 6.9 5.4 6.9 7.8 6.6 2.1 8.5 8.0 8.9
Graft 97.4 3.2 3.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 6.2 6.5 7.0 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.7 7.6 3.1 4.5 6.5 6.9 6.5 4.0 5.9 6.3 2.2 7.2 4.5 6.5 8.3 6.3 3.4 8.9 9.1 9.5
ZaphBot 96.3 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.5 6.7 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.1 -1.0 8.7 8.4 2.7 5.5 4.1 5.3 6.7 6.0 6.9 2.4 6.0 7.9 7.9 3.2 8.7 9.3 9.5
What Snoo Thinks 96.3 3.9 3.9 3.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 7.5 7.5 3.9 4.1 8.0 5.0 7.1 3.6 5.6 6.5 -0.3 7.2 5.5 7.3 8.3 7.3 3.7 8.3 8.1 9.3
AFL Lab 96.1 3.8 3.5 4.8 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.5 3.9 6.9 8.0 5.0 7.2 1.7 6.5 7.0 3.5 6.9 6.9 5.5 6.8 6.6 1.1 8.4 7.5 8.8
PlusSixOne 92.1 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.3 7.5 2.2 3.8 5.4 5.1 5.7 5.5 5.5 6.4 5.1 6.1 5.6 6.0 6.2 5.6 2.2 7.6 6.1 7.4
Elo Predicts! 91.8 3.0 3.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.3 5.9 6.9 6.4 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.2 7.0 7.7 7.6 2.6 8.4 8.4 1.8 6.9 2.4 5.2 5.8 1.7 7.5 2.5 7.0 7.5 6.0 3.3 8.2 8.6 9.5
Informed Stats 74.7 5.1 5.1 6.4 6.6 6.5 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.6 6.7 7.2 7.5 5.8 6.5 6.0 4.6 5.9 4.7 6.0 7.8 -0.2 7.6 5.7 6.8 8.2 8.0 2.1 8.4 8.2 10.0
Ladder 62.0 -1.1 -1.1 0.5 0.5 1.2 3.1 4.1 5.4 4.4 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.1 6.7 8.0 10.0 5.2 6.5 0.6 6.7 4.7 -1.8 1.0 2.6 4.7 2.6 3.7 4.9 3.9 4.9 0.8 4.3 4.7 9.6
AFLalytics 8.7 3.7 5.1 -4.6 4.7 4.2 2.8 6.6 3.9 5.0 5.6 4.5 6.1 5.4 5.0 5.9 3.8 2.7 7.6 3.5 5.9

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 13
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 14
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 6
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 9
9.99950294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 10
9.99950000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 11
9.99941176 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 12
9.99870294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 7
9.99869718 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 9
9.99551000 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 14
9.99550000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 8
9.98898753 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 13
9.98751765 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 2
9.98384424 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 4
9.98337941 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 5
9.98208115 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 9
9.97795282 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 8
9.97663529 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 4
9.97384859 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 7
9.97240635 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 12
9.96459129 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 5
9.96406176 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 8
9.95809118 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 14
9.95710103 Live Ladders West Coast
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 18th 14
9.95084118 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 7
9.94899424 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 10

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-16.6 Graft Collingwood
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 1st 0
-14.9 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-14.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st -1
-12.6 AFL Lab Collingwood
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 1st 0
-12.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.9 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.4 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.3 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.1 Graft Collingwood
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 1st -1
-10.8 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-10.5 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 4th -1
-10.4 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st -1
-9.8 Live Ladders Collingwood
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 1st 0
-9.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st -1
-8.7 Squiggle Collingwood
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 1st 0
-8.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 2
-8.1 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 11th 4
-7.9 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 0
-7.9 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st -1
-7.8 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 3
-7.8 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 11th 2
-7.6 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
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 9th 10

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
36.1 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 11th 4
35.6 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 11th 2
35.3 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
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 9th 10
34.9 The Footycast St Kilda
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 15th 4
34.7 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 11th -1
33.4 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
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 9th 8
33.3 ZaphBot Sydney
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 11th -1
32.9 Live Ladders St Kilda
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 15th 4
32.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 11th 3
32.3 Graft St Kilda
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 15th 4
31.9 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
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 15th 4
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 10
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 11
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 12
31.6 ZaphBot Sydney
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 11th 2
31.4 ZaphBot Sydney
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 11th 3
31.2 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 8
31.1 AFL Lab St Kilda
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 15th 4
30.9 Graft Sydney
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 11th -1
30.7 ZaphBot Sydney
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 11th 1
30.7 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 3
30.3 ZaphBot Sydney
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 11th 4
29.6 Live Ladders St Kilda
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 15th 3
29.4 What Snoo Thinks St Kilda
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 15th 5
29.3 Matter of Stats St Kilda
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 15th 4
29.0 Wheelo Ratings St Kilda
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 15th 4

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-53.2 Graft Collingwood
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 1st 0
-49.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-48.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-47.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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-47.5 ZaphBot Collingwood
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-45.2 AFL Lab Collingwood
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-44.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-43.7 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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-43.7 ZaphBot Collingwood
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-42.8 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-42.7 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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-42.2 Graft Collingwood
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-41.5 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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-41.0 ZaphBot Adelaide
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-40.7 Stattraction Collingwood
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-39.6 Live Ladders Collingwood
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-38.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-37.4 Squiggle Collingwood
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-37.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-35.7 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-35.7 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-35.7 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-35.2 ZaphBot Adelaide
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-35.0 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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-34.9 ZaphBot Collingwood
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