LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 Hawthorn Adelaide Greater Western Sydney Collingwood Brisbane Lions Gold Coast Geelong North Melbourne Western Bulldogs Sydney Port Adelaide St Kilda Richmond Carlton Melbourne Essendon Fremantle West Coast
Wheelo Ratings 13.0 2.0 2.1 3.8 5.1 4.0 -0.3 3.6 1.7 7.0 4.1 5.8 -5.8 4.9 6.1 6.2 5.7 6.0 1.5 3.4 2.4 -4.7 6.8
The Footycast 12.7 1.2 1.6 4.2 5.7 5.4 0.8 6.2 1.2 7.2 1.3 6.6 -9.4 4.8 3.9 6.2 6.6 5.6 0.3 3.9 5.7 -6.9 7.7
Matter of Stats 12.1 1.5 1.7 3.8 5.1 5.0 -0.2 2.4 1.5 7.0 3.2 6.3 -9.6 2.9 6.2 5.1 6.5 6.3 1.8 3.7 3.8 -5.2 7.4
Glicko Ratings 11.8 1.6 1.7 3.4 5.1 4.4 1.5 4.6 1.5 7.2 5.3 6.4 -7.5 4.5 6.4 6.8 6.9 3.3 -2.8 4.9 0.2 -7.4 7.0
Winnable 11.5 1.8 2.0 3.5 4.2 6.4 0.5 -3.5 4.8 7.0 1.9 6.5 -3.3 3.4 5.4 6.3 7.1 2.6 -0.5 5.2 4.4 -10.3 7.9
Squiggle 11.0 1.1 1.3 3.7 4.9 3.6 1.8 0.5 4.0 7.0 4.0 4.7 -6.6 5.3 6.6 6.1 6.7 1.0 3.0 1.0 4.2 -9.5 6.0
Live Ladders 11.0 1.3 1.4 3.5 4.8 7.5 -3.0 1.9 3.3 7.3 5.5 4.1 -13.8 3.5 7.0 5.5 5.5 2.3 4.6 3.5 2.1 -5.1 7.5
Ladder 10.1 -1.8 1.8 10.0 8.0 4.1 6.1 8.0 5.1 2.2 4.1 1.2 0.2 2.2 0.2 3.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.2 1.2 8.0
Stattraction 9.8 0.7 1.2 3.2 4.7 6.8 -1.2 2.8 -0.1 7.0 2.1 6.3 -12.8 1.6 4.7 5.3 7.0 4.1 2.7 4.5 1.4 -6.4 8.3
AFL Lab 9.6 1.5 0.9 3.1 4.1 2.8 -2.3 -1.3 1.8 6.9 4.0 4.1 -12.2 2.0 6.6 3.2 5.5 6.7 3.9 2.6 1.6 -0.2 7.3
Don't Blame the Data 9.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 4.9 5.6 -3.1 1.6 3.1 6.4 3.1 6.8 -14.3 1.1 5.6 4.2 7.1 2.9 2.4 5.0 0.5 -4.6 7.1
PlusSixOne 8.6 1.3 1.3 2.6 3.4 -2.0 -1.0 1.0 2.1 6.2 1.7 6.1 -3.3 5.3 5.0 5.4 5.0 6.2 0.1 -0.3 2.5 -6.4 5.0
Graft 8.2 -0.2 0.4 3.2 4.9 1.6 1.9 5.7 -0.6 7.2 1.8 6.5 -13.8 3.4 2.2 4.7 7.4 2.5 2.2 -1.3 4.7 -7.9 8.9
AFLalytics 6.1 2.1 4.1 2.4 -1.2 2.9 2.3 6.8 4.0 6.1 -4.6 4.5 5.7 5.6 5.9 6.7 2.7 2.2 2.0 -4.7 5.9
ZaphBot 4.7 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.4 7.1 -11.1 3.6 -3.4 2.8 -1.8 3.9 -7.6 4.3 -1.4 2.8 7.2 1.5 3.1 5.6 5.8 -9.7 8.6
What Snoo Thinks 2.8 0.7 0.7 1.4 4.9 -6.2 2.4 -1.0 7.3 -2.4 5.6 -17.3 -4.1 4.0 6.5 6.8 5.6 -4.4 7.1 3.0 -9.2 7.7
Elo Predicts! 2.1 -1.0 -0.2 1.3 2.0 5.5 -9.4 6.0 -0.3 3.9 -5.0 4.0 -16.9 4.2 -0.4 7.0 8.1 2.0 -3.3 -1.8 7.1 -9.6 8.1

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.56346647 Graft West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
9.21200056 ZaphBot West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
8.92892959 Winnable West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
8.92176326 Stattraction West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
8.80221668 Matter of Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
8.77555882 The Footycast West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
8.73632826 Wheelo Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
8.66215318 Live Ladders West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
8.34894682 Graft West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 0
8.32650453 Graft West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th -1
8.28679971 Squiggle West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
8.23743824 AFL Lab West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
8.21027647 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
8.19394412 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
8.17517647 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th -1
8.16596235 Live Ladders Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 1
8.10741862 ZaphBot West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 0
8.03224706 The Footycast Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3rd 1
7.99685626 ZaphBot West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th -1
7.97909706 Glicko Ratings West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
7.86483109 What Snoo Thinks West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
7.85328785 ZaphBot Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 1
7.78781521 Stattraction West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 0
7.76066371 AFLalytics West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 1
7.68666788 Graft St Kilda
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
7.62482994 What Snoo Thinks West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th -1

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-18.4 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-18.3 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-18.1 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-17.4 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-17.2 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-17.2 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-16.3 ZaphBot Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd -1
-16.2 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-16.2 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-16.2 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-15.7 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-15.5 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-15.5 Graft North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-15.4 Graft North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-14.8 Graft North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-14.2 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-14.2 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-14.1 Winnable Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
-14.0 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-13.9 Squiggle Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
-13.8 Squiggle Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
-13.6 Winnable Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
-13.6 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-13.5 AFL Lab North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-13.4 AFL Lab North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
48.2 Winnable Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
47.8 Squiggle Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
47.5 Squiggle Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
47.2 Winnable Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
43.6 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
43.2 Graft Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
42.9 Graft Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
42.1 The Footycast Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
41.5 ZaphBot Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 1
41.1 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
41.1 Glicko Ratings Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
40.8 The Footycast Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
39.8 Glicko Ratings Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
39.7 Stattraction Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
39.4 ZaphBot Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
39.2 ZaphBot Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
38.8 What Snoo Thinks Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
38.8 What Snoo Thinks Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
38.3 Stattraction Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
38.0 PlusSixOne Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
37.8 What Snoo Thinks Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 1
36.7 PlusSixOne Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1
36.4 Winnable Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 1
35.9 Matter of Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
35.7 Live Ladders Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
35.6 Matter of Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th -1

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-56.8 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-56.6 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-56.1 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-54.8 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-54.4 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-54.4 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-52.7 ZaphBot Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd -1
-52.3 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-52.3 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-52.3 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-51.3 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-51.1 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-51.0 Graft North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-50.8 Graft North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-49.6 Graft North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-48.5 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-48.3 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-48.0 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-47.1 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-47.0 AFL Lab North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1
-46.8 AFL Lab North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 0
-46.8 ZaphBot Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 0
-45.1 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 0
-44.6 AFL Lab North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th 1
-44.6 Matter of Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8th -1