LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Collingwood Brisbane Lions Port Adelaide Melbourne Carlton St Kilda Greater Western Sydney Sydney Western Bulldogs Adelaide Essendon Geelong Richmond Fremantle Gold Coast Hawthorn North Melbourne West Coast
AFLalytics 155.1 2.7 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.8 6.1 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.7 5.2 5.2 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.9 8.2 8.7 8.3 10.0 7.7 5.1 6.8 8.2 2.5 7.0 0.4 5.2 5.9 6.8 5.8 2.7 6.0 6.5 5.2 8.8 8.4 8.2
Live Ladders 151.7 2.1 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.5 5.7 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.0 4.4 5.1 5.2 6.2 6.3 6.6 7.0 8.0 8.2 8.8 8.9 10.0 7.9 5.2 6.9 8.6 2.8 6.5 -1.6 5.0 6.5 6.8 6.6 -0.8 4.0 6.6 6.5 9.2 9.5 9.0
Graft 151.1 2.0 3.4 3.8 3.9 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.2 5.1 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.9 8.0 8.7 9.0 10.0 6.8 7.0 6.0 8.2 2.4 6.4 -1.9 4.6 5.9 6.7 6.1 0.8 5.6 5.8 5.7 9.2 9.7 9.6
AFL Lab 148.9 2.5 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.7 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.5 5.1 4.9 5.8 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.6 7.7 8.7 9.0 10.0 6.6 4.9 6.6 8.3 2.9 6.2 -1.7 5.8 6.6 6.9 7.0 -1.1 4.4 6.8 5.4 9.1 9.4 9.0
Squiggle 148.0 3.0 4.6 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.3 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.6 5.2 5.2 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.9 7.8 7.8 8.7 8.9 10.0 8.0 6.1 6.1 8.3 3.3 6.6 -1.0 4.8 6.1 7.0 6.0 0.7 6.3 6.4 5.0 8.8 9.1 9.1
Glicko Ratings 147.0 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.1 4.6 5.2 5.3 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.7 7.9 7.9 8.9 9.1 10.0 7.7 6.0 6.1 8.2 3.3 5.8 -1.2 5.0 5.5 6.8 5.6 1.8 4.7 6.3 6.5 8.8 9.3 9.5
Matter of Stats 146.3 2.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.7 5.0 4.9 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.3 4.9 5.4 5.4 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.9 7.8 7.8 8.6 9.0 10.0 7.8 5.3 6.7 8.1 2.9 5.7 -0.9 5.5 6.3 7.0 6.2 0.5 5.7 6.4 5.6 9.0 9.0 8.6
Wheelo Ratings 146.2 2.7 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.6 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.7 5.1 5.1 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.9 7.8 8.6 9.0 10.0 7.7 5.4 6.7 8.2 2.3 6.5 -1.2 5.4 6.5 7.1 6.3 -0.2 6.1 6.0 6.1 8.9 9.0 8.7
PlusSixOne 142.4 2.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 4.2 4.3 4.4 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.2 4.9 5.5 5.5 6.2 6.4 6.6 7.0 7.8 7.9 8.4 8.8 10.0 6.5 4.7 5.0 8.0 2.5 6.7 0.4 6.1 6.6 7.1 5.1 1.5 5.2 5.1 6.4 8.6 8.9 8.2
The Footycast 138.4 2.4 3.7 3.2 3.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.9 4.9 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.8 7.8 8.7 8.9 10.0 7.6 5.6 5.8 8.4 0.8 6.6 -0.6 3.6 5.8 6.6 5.3 1.7 5.4 5.9 3.6 9.1 9.4 9.1
Stattraction 137.4 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.2 5.2 4.8 5.1 5.3 4.9 4.5 5.1 5.1 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.8 7.8 7.5 8.5 8.9 10.0 7.1 6.2 6.1 8.1 1.1 6.8 -3.3 5.3 6.3 6.9 6.5 -3.0 4.8 5.9 6.0 9.3 9.5 9.5
ZaphBot 135.5 1.5 3.0 2.9 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.4 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.7 3.8 5.0 5.2 6.0 5.7 6.4 6.9 7.9 7.7 8.7 9.1 10.0 7.2 3.9 6.8 8.3 1.5 7.1 -2.3 5.0 6.5 6.7 5.6 -3.1 4.9 6.3 4.9 9.2 9.5 9.5
Elo Predicts! 135.4 1.0 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.9 3.6 3.6 4.7 4.6 3.9 4.4 4.4 4.2 3.3 4.5 4.8 5.5 5.8 5.9 6.5 7.7 7.7 8.6 8.9 10.0 8.6 5.8 5.2 8.3 -2.3 6.5 -4.2 4.7 5.9 6.0 4.9 1.5 3.7 5.0 5.7 9.4 9.5 9.7
FMI 128.7 1.7 3.3 2.1 2.2 3.7 3.2 3.1 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.7 4.2 3.9 3.2 4.2 4.5 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.6 7.6 8.2 9.0 10.0 9.4 2.9 5.1 8.0 0.3 6.0 -0.9 1.1 5.4 5.4 2.8 2.7 4.4 6.0 6.1 8.2 7.7 8.3
Ladder 75.3 -2.1 -5.7 -3.4 -0.5 -0.1 1.5 4.1 3.5 2.8 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.5 3.5 4.4 4.4 5.8 6.7 7.1 8.4 8.4 10.0 7.9 1.4 3.5 7.5 -2.4 5.0 -2.0 -1.2 1.9 3.5 -1.5 0.7 4.4 4.9 4.5 8.0 3.9 6.4

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 11
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 12
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 13
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 14
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 15
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 16
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 17
10.00000000 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 18
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 18
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 18
10.00000000 FMI Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 19
10.00000000 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 19
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 19
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 19
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 20
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 20
10.00000000 FMI Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 20
10.00000000 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 20
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 20
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 21
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 21
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 ZaphBot Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 22
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 22
10.00000000 FMI Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 22

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-17.5 ZaphBot Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
-16.6 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 13
-16.3 Live Ladders Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
-15.3 ZaphBot Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 6
-15.3 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 12
-15.1 FMI Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 13
-15.0 FMI Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
-14.9 Stattraction Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
-14.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 3
-14.2 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 14
-14.2 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 1
-13.9 The Footycast Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 13
-13.6 ZaphBot Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 7
-13.3 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 11
-13.3 ZaphBot Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 13
-13.3 ZaphBot Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 8
-13.0 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 9
-12.9 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 10
-12.8 FMI Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 15
-12.7 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 15
-12.7 Graft Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
-12.3 Graft Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 13
-12.1 FMI Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 12
-12.0 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 6
-12.0 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 4

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
55.0 ZaphBot Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
52.6 Live Ladders Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
50.7 ZaphBot Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 6
50.1 FMI Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
49.7 Stattraction Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
47.3 ZaphBot Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 7
46.5 ZaphBot Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 8
45.5 Graft Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
44.0 Stattraction Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 7
43.8 Stattraction Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 8
42.2 Live Ladders Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 7
41.7 Glicko Ratings Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
41.7 AFL Lab Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
41.7 The Footycast Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
41.3 Elo Predicts! Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
41.2 ZaphBot Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 5
40.9 ZaphBot Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 4
40.8 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
40.6 Matter of Stats Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
40.5 Stattraction Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 6
40.5 Stattraction Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1
39.9 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
39.4 Squiggle Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
39.3 Live Ladders Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1
39.1 Wheelo Ratings Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
38.9 Live Ladders Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 6

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-53.3 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 13
-50.6 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 12
-50.3 FMI Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 13
-49.6 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 3
-48.5 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 14
-48.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 1
-47.8 The Footycast Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 13
-46.7 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 11
-46.6 ZaphBot Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 13
-45.9 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 9
-45.7 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 10
-45.7 FMI Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 15
-45.5 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 15
-44.6 Graft Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 13
-44.2 FMI Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 12
-44.1 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 6
-44.1 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 4
-43.7 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 5
-43.7 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 12
-43.5 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 16
-43.4 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 13
-43.3 Stattraction Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 13
-43.1 Live Ladders Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 10
-43.0 Elo Predicts! Carlton
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 10
-42.7 Stattraction Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 10