LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Brisbane Lions Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Collingwood Hawthorn Geelong Adelaide Fremantle St Kilda Sydney Port Adelaide Western Bulldogs Essendon Carlton North Melbourne Richmond Melbourne West Coast
Live Ladders 37.0 3.5 3.4 4.7 5.6 6.2 6.6 7.1 3.0 1.9 2.4 5.2 5.3 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.2 6.5 -0.1 7.2 5.9 6.6 8.6 1.8 8.1
Glicko Ratings 36.0 3.4 3.4 4.6 5.4 5.8 6.4 7.0 4.2 1.1 5.0 3.6 6.9 7.0 6.0 6.5 4.4 6.7 6.6 0.6 5.8 0.4 7.7 8.4 4.0 7.8
Squiggle 35.6 3.0 3.0 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.6 2.4 1.1 1.3 5.5 7.2 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.2 1.6 7.3 4.8 7.7 7.8 0.4 6.9
Wheelo Ratings 35.5 3.4 3.4 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.6 2.6 0.4 3.8 3.6 7.0 6.7 5.9 5.8 6.4 6.2 6.3 1.1 6.6 3.1 7.8 8.0 2.5 7.6
Don't Blame the Data 35.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 5.8 6.0 6.5 7.0 6.6 -1.8 2.8 4.7 6.2 7.3 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.3 5.7 -2.9 6.2 4.5 6.3 8.7 3.4 7.7
Matter of Stats 34.7 3.0 3.0 4.7 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.8 4.3 -1.6 3.1 3.6 6.8 6.9 6.3 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.0 -1.2 7.2 3.2 7.4 8.0 3.0 7.9
Stattraction 33.8 2.7 2.8 4.2 5.2 5.7 6.2 7.0 5.7 -2.4 2.4 2.7 5.6 7.1 6.2 6.3 6.2 5.0 6.2 -2.9 6.8 4.6 7.1 8.7 2.9 8.7
Graft 32.9 1.8 2.2 4.4 5.2 6.0 6.2 7.2 3.5 -2.9 6.1 2.4 6.7 7.0 6.0 6.2 5.3 2.8 6.0 -0.8 8.1 4.4 7.1 8.8 -1.1 9.1
Winnable 32.1 3.1 3.2 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.4 6.1 5.0 -3.9 -2.4 5.8 6.4 7.0 6.9 6.5 5.5 5.0 6.6 -2.7 7.4 1.4 8.0 8.3 3.7 8.3
AFL Lab 31.2 2.9 2.6 3.9 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.1 5.5 -1.8 -0.8 4.1 7.1 6.0 6.3 4.0 6.5 6.7 4.7 -2.3 6.1 4.9 6.6 7.7 0.8 7.9
ZaphBot 29.6 2.7 3.0 3.1 4.0 4.7 5.6 6.6 8.9 -9.6 4.9 -0.3 4.3 5.7 4.5 7.7 5.6 -1.4 5.2 -0.7 7.5 4.9 8.4 8.2 3.2 9.0
The Footycast 27.5 2.9 3.1 4.4 5.2 5.9 6.1 2.8 -5.2 6.1 2.4 6.0 7.0 5.4 6.1 6.0 4.1 6.3 0.0 7.3 2.5 7.4 8.0 2.5 8.0
PlusSixOne 26.2 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 1.2 -4.2 1.4 3.0 5.4 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.1 5.8 2.3 5.8 1.7 6.8 5.5 -1.6 5.5
What Snoo Thinks 24.5 2.5 2.5 3.1 5.3 5.3 5.7 4.5 -7.2 3.7 2.8 6.3 6.8 5.9 5.6 6.5 4.9 7.0 -7.8 7.8 -1.7 5.7 8.7 5.3 8.5
Elo Predicts! 24.5 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.7 6.3 8.7 -11.9 6.7 1.7 5.3 6.3 5.5 6.1 3.7 -1.1 6.9 -2.1 7.2 -1.1 5.2 9.3 -2.2 8.9
Ladder 18.2 -1.4 -1.1 2.2 3.1 5.4 10.0 0.2 1.7 6.6 7.1 1.2 4.1 2.2 -2.7 0.2 5.1 4.1 0.7 4.6 4.1 0.7 2.6 3.1 9.0
Informed Stats 18.0 5.6 5.7 6.7 8.3 4.4 3.3 5.8 6.0 7.0 6.3 7.0 6.8 3.1 6.2 -1.6 8.4 6.2 6.4 9.3 5.2 10.0
AFLalytics 7.8 3.1 4.7 2.7 -3.3 2.9 2.3 6.6 6.3 5.8 5.7 5.3 5.7 5.6 -0.5 5.9 2.7 7.4 5.2 -2.1 5.9

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.98751765 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
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6
7
8
9
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 18th 2
9.98384424 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 4
9.97663529 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 4
9.92569365 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 3
9.87212353 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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8
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 18th 3
9.67749706 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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2
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 13th 4
9.65922459 Informed Stats Richmond
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 16th 4
9.65026176 Elo Predicts! Richmond
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 16th 0
9.62389412 Elo Predicts! Richmond
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 16th 1
9.58116176 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 4
9.56346647 Graft West Coast
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 18th 1
9.56083497 Graft West Coast
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 18th 2
9.52083235 Elo Predicts! Richmond
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 16th -1
9.40853529 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
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 16th 4
9.36976865 Graft West Coast
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 18th 4
9.36975144 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 2
9.36145365 What Snoo Thinks West Coast
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 18th 2
9.36145365 What Snoo Thinks West Coast
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 18th 3
9.34086471 ZaphBot Brisbane Lions
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 1st 1
9.33761691 What Snoo Thinks West Coast
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 18th 4
9.28703715 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 3
9.28680438 Graft Richmond
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 16th 1
9.28665421 Graft West Coast
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 18th 3
9.21200056 ZaphBot West Coast
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 18th 1
9.14512647 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
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18
 16th 2
9.09378329 Informed Stats Essendon
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 13th 4

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-18.5 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd -1
-18.3 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 0
-16.5 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
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12
13
14
15
16
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18
 2nd 2
-15.8 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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18
 2nd 1
-14.1 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 2nd 2
-14.0 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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2
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 2nd 0
-14.0 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-13.5 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
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 2nd 1
-13.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 12th 0
-13.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 12th -1
-12.4 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 2nd 1
-12.3 Graft Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-12.1 Graft Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-11.9 The Footycast Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-11.9 Stattraction Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-11.8 The Footycast Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-11.7 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 12th 1
-11.5 Stattraction Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-11.5 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-11.0 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
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 2nd 4
-10.8 Winnable Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-10.8 Graft Melbourne
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 17th -1
-10.7 Graft Melbourne
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 17th 0
-10.6 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 17th 0
-10.6 Winnable Gold Coast
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 2nd 0

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
46.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
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 12th -1
46.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 12th 0
43.4 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 12th 1
41.6 Graft Melbourne
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 17th -1
41.4 Graft Melbourne
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 17th 0
41.3 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 17th 0
40.3 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 17th -1
39.7 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 17th 1
38.9 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 12th 3
36.7 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
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 12th -1
36.7 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
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 12th 0
36.7 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
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 12th 1
35.6 Graft Melbourne
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 17th 1
35.6 Squiggle Melbourne
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 17th 0
35.3 PlusSixOne Melbourne
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 17th 0
35.1 Squiggle Melbourne
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 17th -1
35.0 Stattraction Western Bulldogs
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 12th -1
34.7 AFL Lab Western Bulldogs
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 12th 0
34.2 Stattraction Western Bulldogs
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 12th 0
34.1 PlusSixOne Melbourne
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 17th -1
34.0 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
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 12th 3
32.9 AFL Lab Western Bulldogs
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 12th -1
32.4 Stattraction Western Bulldogs
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 12th 1
32.3 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 12th -1
31.8 What Snoo Thinks Carlton
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 14th -1
31.8 What Snoo Thinks Carlton
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 14th 0

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-56.9 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd -1
-56.6 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 2nd 0
-53.0 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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9
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11
12
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18
 2nd 2
-51.7 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 2nd 1
-48.2 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 2nd 2
-48.1 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-48.1 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-46.9 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
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 2nd 1
-44.8 What Snoo Thinks Gold Coast
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 2nd 1
-44.5 Graft Gold Coast
1
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 2nd 0
-44.1 Graft Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-43.8 The Footycast Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-43.8 Stattraction Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-43.6 The Footycast Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-43.1 Stattraction Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-42.9 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-41.9 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
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 2nd 4
-41.6 Winnable Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-41.2 Winnable Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-40.0 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 2nd 3
-39.6 ZaphBot Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-39.0 Matter of Stats Gold Coast
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 2nd 0
-38.8 PlusSixOne Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-38.7 Matter of Stats Gold Coast
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 2nd -1
-37.9 Squiggle Gold Coast
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 2nd 0