Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

Wins

Range

Sydney

16.8

127%

Port Adelaide

15.6

114%

Geelong

14.9

112%

3–4

GWS

14.9

109%

3–4

Brisbane Lions

14.3

122%

Western Bulldogs

13.8

125%

6–7

Hawthorn

13.9

118%

6–7

Carlton

13.1

111%

8–9

Fremantle

12.8

113%

8–10

Collingwood

12.7

102%

9–10

Essendon

11.4

93%

St Kilda

10.7

99%

12–14

Gold Coast

10.9

99%

12–14

Melbourne

11.0

99%

12–14

Adelaide

8.4

99%

West Coast

5.0

68%

North Melbourne

3.0

63%

Richmond

2.0

63%

PROJECTIONS

History

Wins

Finish

Sydney

–

126.7%

+-0.2

Port Adelaide

–

114.8%

+-0.4

Geelong

–

112.2%

+-0.1

GWS

–

109.1%

+-0.1

Brisbane Lions

121.9%

+-0.2

Western Bulldogs

–

125.1%

+-0.2

Hawthorn

–

118.5%

+-0.1

Carlton

–

110.2%

+0.1

Collingwood

102.5%

+-0.3

Fremantle

111.9%

+0.3

Essendon

93.5%

+-0.1

St Kilda

–

99.4%

+-0.3

Gold Coast

–

99.1%

+-0.1

Melbourne

–

98.5%

+0.0

Adelaide

99.1%

+-0.1

West Coast

–

68.1%

+-0.0

North Melbourne

–

63.5%

+-0.0

Richmond

–

63.7%

+0.0

Models Leaderboard

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2 1 2 1	156	33.35	26.36	72.2%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2 1 1 1	143	33.50	26.52	66.2%
2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2 1 1 1	143	26.77	27.31	66.2%
3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 1	143	24.32	27.08	66.2%
2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2 2 1 1	142	26.14	27.23	65.7%
3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 0 1 0	141	29.77	27.17	65.3%
2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3 0 1 1	141	27.38	27.27	65.3%
s10 3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2 0 1 1	140	30.91	26.70	64.8%
2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2 1 2 1	140	29.73	26.76	64.8%
3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2 1 1 1	140	29.21	26.92	64.8%
2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2 1 1 1	140	27.51	26.79	64.8%
Aggregate 3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1	139	30.19	26.64	64.4%
3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2 2 1	139	28.36	27.23^†2	65.0%
3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1	139	27.41	26.80	64.4%
3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2 0 1 1	139	27.00	27.34	64.4%
1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2 1 2	139	26.60	27.27^†1	64.7%
3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2 0 1 1	139	21.53	28.11	64.4%
3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9	138	32.10	26.50^†13	68.0%
3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2 2 0 1	138	28.01	26.72	63.9%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2 0 2 0	138	27.46	27.20^†1	64.2%
1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2 0	138	26.81	27.44^†4	65.1%
3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 0 2 0	138	25.74	26.85	63.9%
3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1	137	28.92	27.27	63.4%
1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2 2 1	137	17.28	28.44^†1	63.7%
Punters 3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2 0 1 0	136	28.86	26.82	63.0%
3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2 0 1 0	135	27.01	27.27	62.5%
3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2 1 2 1	135	24.63	27.83	62.5%
1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1	135	24.46	27.53	62.5%
3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3 1 2 0	133	28.20	26.76	61.6%
3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3 0 2 0	133	27.48	27.05^†2	62.1%

AFL Prediction & Analysis

Follow @SquiggleAFL

Welcome PlusSixOne!

March 22, 2017March 22, 2017

New to Squiggle Dials is PlusSixOne, with some interestingly divergent tips on a couple of games, being more bullish on Essendon (vs Hawthorn) and Port (vs Sydney) than all other models. PlusSixOne delivered a healthy 70.5% tip rate last year in what was a reasonably tough season, so are worth watching!

Who won the pre-season?

March 14, 2017March 17, 2017

FootyMaths institute takes a stab at rating pre-season performance by adjusting for quality of opposition:

And as it happens, by the FMI method, St Kilda did indeed have a good pre-season series. And as another wake-up call to the competition, Essendon were next best, with Richmond and Brisbane all but a tie for third.

Read more at: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: POST-JLT: BREAK

Who will make the finals? The wisdom of crowds

February 16, 2017March 17, 2017

The Arc has an analysis of entries into tip-the-finalists competition:

Entrants to the finalists-tipping competition are very sure that the GWS Giants will make the finals, with good reason. The median estimate was that the Giants have an 88.4% shot at the finals this year. That’s more bullish than the chances given to the Giants by the betting markets (79%) or our Elo model (72.8%). At the other end of the scale, the clear consensus is that the Lions have a tiny chance of making it.

Source: Who will make the finals? The wisdom of crowds | The Arc

Squiggle 2017 on BigFooty

February 15, 2017March 17, 2017

[IMG]

The BigFooty Squiggle 2017 thread kicks off here!

Here’s the starting point for 2017! Positions are calculated from 2016 performance only: They don’t take into consideration list changes, injuries, the fact that 90% of GWS is made up of first round draft picks just coming into their prime, and so on.

Source: Mega Thread – Squiggle 2017 | BigFooty AFL Forum

Site launch

February 9, 2017March 17, 2017

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.