Squiggle 2017 on BigFooty

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The BigFooty Squiggle 2017 thread kicks off here!

Here’s the starting point for 2017! Positions are calculated from 2016 performance only: They don’t take into consideration list changes, injuries, the fact that 90% of GWS is made up of first round draft picks just coming into their prime, and so on.

Source: Mega Thread – Squiggle 2017 | BigFooty AFL Forum

2018 Tip Leaderboard

Final standings after 207 games.

Tips

Bits

MAE

Correct

Punters

7 3 7 6 5 8 8 5 7 6 7 5 6 5 5 8 3 7 7 5 5 7 8 4 2 1 0

147

39.76

71.0%

7 3 8 7 4 7 8 6 6 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 3 7 7 7 6 7 7 4 2 0 0

147

38.01

26.55

71.0%

Aggregate

7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 7 4 6 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 5 7 7 4 2 0 0

147

37.30

26.63

71.0%

7 3 8 7 5 6 8 5 6 6 8 4 5 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 6 7 7 3 2 0 1

147

33.63

27.17

71.0%

6 3 7 7 5 7 8 5 6 7 7 3 6 5 5 8 3 6 8 7 5 7 8 4 2 1 0

146

39.27

26.73

70.5%

6 3 8 7 4 9 8 6 5 5 8 4 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 7 5 8 7 2 2 1 1

146

33.24

27.54

70.5%

7 4 7 7 5 6 8 5 6 7 7 3 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 8 5 7 7 3 2 1 1

146

29.66

27.23

70.5%

6 4 8 5 6 8 8 5 5 6 9 4 5 4 3 9 3 7 8 6 5 8 9 3 2 0 0

146

24.79

29.11

70.5%

6 3 8 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 4 5 7 6 5 7 7 3 2 0 0

142

34.55

27.05

68.6%

7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 7 5 8 3 4 5 5 8 4 6 6 5 5 7 7 3 2 1 0

141

32.75

27.26

68.1%

7 3 8 7 4 6 8 5 6 6 7 4 5 5 4 8 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 3 2 1 0

140

35.05

27.43

67.6%

6 4 6 6 3 8 6 6 5 5 7 4 6 4 4 8 6 4 6 7 7 8 9 2 2 0 0

139

28.20

28.15

67.1%

6 3 7 7 5 7 7 5 5 6 7 3 6 5 4 8 3 6 7 4 6 7 8 4 2 0 0

138

37.90

26.61

66.7%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	14	8	128.9
2	GWS	14	8	127.6
3	Melbourne	14	8	126.6
4	West Coast	14	8	122.6
5	Geelong	13	9	118.8
6	Collingwood	13	9	116.8
7	Essendon	13	9	113.7
8	Adelaide	13	9	112.1
9	Hawthorn	12	10	107.1
10	Port Adelaide	12	10	105.6
11	North Melbourne	11	11	98.2
12	Brisbane Lions	10	12	92.7
13	St Kilda	10	12	92.6
14	Western Bulldogs	9	13	87.2
15	Sydney	9	13	85.2
16	Fremantle	8	14	78.9
17	Carlton	6	16	65.8
18	Gold Coast	4	18	59.6