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Posted on February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

  • The Arc
  • Figuring Footy
  • Matter of Stats
  • FootyMaths Institute

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 16.9 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Fremantle 17.2 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Hawthorn 15.6 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Geelong 15.4 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Adelaide 12.9 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
6
 Brisbane Lions 12.8 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Gold Coast 12.8 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
8
 Melbourne 12.9 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Collingwood 11.8 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 GWS 10.8 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 St Kilda 10.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 North Melbourne 10.2 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Carlton 9.6 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Port Adelaide 8.2 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 7.0 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Essendon 4.8 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 5.2 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 2 games of Round 12, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 10∗ 1 – 135.5%
+7.2
2
2
 Sydney 9∗ 2 – 142.5%
+7.9
1
3
 Hawthorn 8 3 1 114.8%
+7.1
3
4
 Geelong 8 4 – 121.9%
+7.4
4
5
 Gold Coast 7∗ 4 – 116.9%
+5.8
7
6
 Melbourne 7∗ 4 – 106.7%
+5.9
8
7
 Adelaide 6∗ 5 – 107.9%
+6.9
5
8
 Brisbane Lions 6∗ 5 – 106.6%
+6.8
6
9
 Western Bulldogs 6∗ 5 – 92.8%
+6.2
9
10
 Collingwood 5∗ 5 1 100.3%
+6.3
10
11
 St Kilda 5 7 – 102.3%
+5.6
12
12
 GWS 5∗ 6 – 98.6%
+5.8
11
13
 North Melbourne 5∗ 6 – 97.6%
+5.2
13
14
 Carlton 4 8 – 87.5%
+5.6
14
15
 Port Adelaide 3∗ 8 – 100.9%
+5.2
15
16
 West Coast 3∗ 8 – 66.1%
+4.0
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 9 – 64.5%
+3.2
18
18
 Essendon 1∗ 10 – 70.9%
+3.8
17

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 1

79 25.6862 25.69 26.0029 26.00 78.2178 78.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 1

79 24.3837 24.38 25.0164 25.02 78.2178 78.2%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 1

77 16.8977 16.90 26.0509 26.05 76.2376 76.2%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 1

76 24.8182 24.82 26.1255 26.13 75.2475 75.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 1

76 22.2740 22.27 26.6211 26.62 75.2475 75.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 1

75 23.1976 23.20 26.9802 26.98 74.2574 74.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 1

75 23.0676 23.07 26.1882 26.19 74.2574 74.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 1

75 18.7995 18.80 26.6337 26.63 74.2574 74.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 1

74 25.3077 25.31 26.5400 26.54 73.2673 73.3%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 1

74 25.2561 25.26 25.8126 25.81 73.2673 73.3%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 1

74 24.5233 24.52 26.3949 26.39 73.2673 73.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 1

74 21.9153 21.92 26.4528 26.45 73.2673 73.3%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 1

73 24.9137 24.91 27.1160 27.12 72.2772 72.3%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 1

73 22.4507 22.45 26.8966 26.90 72.2772 72.3%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 1

73 21.4824 21.48 28.2079 28.21 72.2772 72.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 1

73 20.6817 20.68 27.0707 27.07 72.2772 72.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 1

72 22.2741 22.27 26.7562 26.76 71.2871 71.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 1

72 20.0970 20.10 27.8207 27.82 71.2871 71.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 1

71 20.1515 20.15 26.4644 26.46 70.2970 70.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 1

70 22.8565 22.86 26.0500 26.05 69.3069 69.3%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 1

70 22.3344 22.33 27.3493 27.35 69.3069 69.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 1

70 22.1987 22.20 26.7426 26.74 69.3069 69.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 1

70 20.8986 20.90 26.9347 26.93 69.3069 69.3%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 1

70 20.2822 20.28 29.0099 29.01 69.3069 69.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 1

69 21.1646 21.16 27.2772 27.28 68.3168 68.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 1

69 18.6579 18.66 26.8990 26.90 68.3168 68.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 1

68 18.6852 18.69 27.2356 27.24 67.3267 67.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 1

68 17.7510 17.75 27.2495 27.25 67.3267 67.3%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 1

66 16.3186 16.32 27.7228 27.72 65.3465 65.3%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 1

64 16.4213 16.42 27.5870 27.59 †9 69.5652 69.6%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 1

54 17.8898 17.89 28.4079 28.41 †25 71.0526 71.1%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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