Site launch

February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

		W	L	%
1	GWS	16	6	138.2
2	Geelong	15	7	134.2
3	Port Adelaide	15	7	129.3
4	Collingwood	14	8	126.1
5	Richmond	13	9	112.1
6	West Coast	13	9	109.0
7	Essendon	12	10	103.6
8	St Kilda	12	10	98.6
9	Hawthorn	11	11	103.1
10	Brisbane Lions	11	11	97.5
11	Fremantle	10	12	96.0
12	Western Bulldogs	10	12	91.5
13	Adelaide	9	13	93.2
14	Melbourne	9	13	89.2
15	Gold Coast	9	13	80.9
16	North Melbourne	7	15	76.4
17	Sydney	6	16	75.8
18	Carlton	6	16	77.6

LEADERBOARD 2019

After 3 games of Round 5, 2019.

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
5 4 7 5 2	23	0.61	25.72	59.0%
5 4 6 6 2	23	-3.35	33.31	59.0%
5 3 6 5 2	21	-3.03	31.64	53.8%
5 4 5 4 2	20	-0.40	31.71	51.3%
4 3 6 6 1	20	-1.20	29.69	51.3%
3 4 6 5 2	20	-2.17	30.62	51.3%
4 4 5 5 2	20	-3.99	30.93	51.3%
Punters 3 4 6 5 2	20	-4.56	32.29	51.3%
4 5 6 4 1	20	-6.33	32.64	51.3%
3 3 5 6 2	19	-2.42	32.82	48.7%
4 3 5 5 2	19	-2.48	34.74	48.7%
3 3 5 6 2	19	-5.20	33.31	48.7%
3 2 6 6 2	19	-5.48	33.59	48.7%
4 3 5 4 2	18	-1.56	29.67	46.2%
Aggregate 3 3 6 4 2	18	-2.35	31.16	46.2%
3 3 4 4 2	16	-6.30	36.94	41.0%
1 6 5 0 1	13	-7.04	30.95	33.3%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.