Site launch

February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

		W	L	D	%
1	Richmond	18	4	0	141.4
2	West Coast	16	6	0	122.5
3	GWS	14	7	1	119.1
4	Hawthorn	14	8	0	120.5
5	Collingwood	14	8	0	118.8
6	Sydney	14	8	0	107.6
7	Melbourne	13	9	0	127.5
8	Geelong	13	9	0	122.6
9	Port Adelaide	13	9	0	112.7
10	North Melbourne	12	10	0	108.0
11	Essendon	12	10	0	102.1
12	Adelaide	11	11	0	100.8
13	Fremantle	8	14	0	79.6
14	Western Bulldogs	8	14	0	75.5
15	St Kilda	5	16	1	75.2
16	Brisbane Lions	5	17	0	90.8
17	Gold Coast	4	18	0	60.7
18	Carlton	2	20	0	61.5

2018 Tip Leaderboard

After Round 21.

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
7 3 8 7 4 7 8 6 6 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 3 7 7 7 6	127	30.92	26.28	70.6%
Aggregate 7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 7 4 6 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 5	127	29.87	26.39	70.6%
7 3 8 7 5 6 8 5 6 6 8 4 5 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 6	127	25.31	26.88	70.6%
Punters 7 3 7 6 5 8 8 5 7 6 7 5 6 5 5 8 3 7 7 5 5	125	31.07		69.4%
6 3 8 7 4 9 8 6 5 5 8 4 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 7 5	125	26.54	27.54	69.4%
7 4 7 7 5 6 8 5 6 7 7 3 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 8 5	125	24.91	27.03	69.4%
6 3 7 7 5 7 8 5 6 7 7 3 6 5 5 8 3 6 8 7 5	124	31.86	26.44	68.9%
6 4 8 5 6 8 8 5 5 6 9 4 5 4 3 9 3 7 8 6 5	124	18.21	28.98	68.9%
6 3 8 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 4 5 7 6 5	123	27.61	26.81	68.3%
7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 7 5 8 3 4 5 5 8 4 6 6 5 5	121	26.56	27.17	67.2%
7 3 8 7 4 6 8 5 6 6 7 4 5 5 4 8 5 6 5 5 6	120	27.25	27.17	66.7%
6 4 6 6 3 8 6 6 5 5 7 4 6 4 4 8 6 4 6 7 7	118	22.10	27.93	65.6%
6 3 7 7 5 7 7 5 5 6 7 3 6 5 4 8 3 6 7 4 6	117	29.48	26.45	65.0%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.