Site launch

February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

		W	L	D	%
1	Richmond	17	5	0	142.3
2	Melbourne	15	7	0	128.1
3	West Coast	15	7	0	118.4
4	Sydney	15	7	0	118.0
5	Geelong	14	8	0	125.2
6	Collingwood	14	8	0	119.2
7	Port Adelaide	14	8	0	117.1
8	North Melbourne	13	9	0	120.1
9	Hawthorn	13	9	0	113.8
10	GWS	12	9	1	110.7
11	Adelaide	10	12	0	96.3
12	Essendon	10	12	0	94.6
13	Fremantle	10	12	0	88.8
14	Western Bulldogs	7	15	0	73.7
15	St Kilda	5	16	1	73.2
16	Brisbane Lions	5	17	0	81.7
17	Gold Coast	5	17	0	61.3
18	Carlton	4	18	0	67.0

2018 Tip Leaderboard

After 1 game of Round 14.

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
Punters 7 3 7 6 5 8 8 5 7 6 7 5 6 0	80	21.51		71.4%
Aggregate 7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 7 4 6 0	79	19.40	28.73	70.5%
6 4 8 5 6 8 8 5 5 6 9 4 5 0	79	10.30	31.71	70.5%
7 3 8 7 4 7 8 6 6 6 7 4 5 0	78	19.87	28.71	69.6%
7 3 8 7 5 6 8 5 6 6 8 4 5 0	78	17.83	29.62	69.6%
6 3 8 7 4 9 8 6 5 5 8 4 5 0	78	17.60	30.25	69.6%
6 3 7 7 5 7 8 5 6 7 7 3 6 0	77	20.39	28.59	68.8%
6 3 8 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 4 5 0	77	19.67	28.63	68.8%
7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 7 5 8 3 4 0	77	17.93	28.92	68.8%
7 4 7 7 5 6 8 5 6 7 7 3 5 0	77	15.84	28.40	68.8%
7 3 8 7 4 6 8 5 6 6 7 4 5 0	76	18.95	29.41	67.9%
6 3 7 7 5 7 7 5 5 6 7 3 6 0	74	19.15	29.02	66.1%
6 4 6 6 3 8 6 6 5 5 7 4 6 0	72	11.94	30.48	64.3%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.