Site launch

February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

2018 Tip Leaderboard

Final standings after 207 games.

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
Punters 7 3 7 6 5 8 8 5 7 6 7 5 6 5 5 8 3 7 7 5 5 7 8 4 2 1 0	147	39.76		71.0%
7 3 8 7 4 7 8 6 6 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 3 7 7 7 6 7 7 4 2 0 0	147	38.01	26.55	71.0%
Aggregate 7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 7 4 6 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 5 7 7 4 2 0 0	147	37.30	26.63	71.0%
7 3 8 7 5 6 8 5 6 6 8 4 5 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 6 7 7 3 2 0 1	147	33.63	27.17	71.0%
6 3 7 7 5 7 8 5 6 7 7 3 6 5 5 8 3 6 8 7 5 7 8 4 2 1 0	146	39.27	26.73	70.5%
6 3 8 7 4 9 8 6 5 5 8 4 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 7 5 8 7 2 2 1 1	146	33.24	27.54	70.5%
7 4 7 7 5 6 8 5 6 7 7 3 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 8 5 7 7 3 2 1 1	146	29.66	27.23	70.5%
6 4 8 5 6 8 8 5 5 6 9 4 5 4 3 9 3 7 8 6 5 8 9 3 2 0 0	146	24.79	29.11	70.5%
6 3 8 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 4 5 7 6 5 7 7 3 2 0 0	142	34.55	27.05	68.6%
7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 7 5 8 3 4 5 5 8 4 6 6 5 5 7 7 3 2 1 0	141	32.75	27.26	68.1%
7 3 8 7 4 6 8 5 6 6 7 4 5 5 4 8 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 3 2 1 0	140	35.05	27.43	67.6%
6 4 6 6 3 8 6 6 5 5 7 4 6 4 4 8 6 4 6 7 7 8 9 2 2 0 0	139	28.20	28.15	67.1%
6 3 7 7 5 7 7 5 5 6 7 3 6 5 4 8 3 6 7 4 6 7 8 4 2 0 0	138	37.90	26.61	66.7%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.