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Posted on February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

  • The Arc
  • Figuring Footy
  • Matter of Stats
  • FootyMaths Institute

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 18.8 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.8 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.2 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Geelong 14.7 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Adelaide 14.2 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
6
 Brisbane Lions 13.2 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Melbourne 13.3 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.6 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 Gold Coast 11.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 St Kilda 11.0 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
11
 GWS 10.9 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 Collingwood 10.7 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 Carlton 10.2 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 North Melbourne 10.0 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.3 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 6.6 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 4.5 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 3.4 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 15, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 13∗ 1 – 144.4%
+5.8
1
2
 Sydney 12∗ 2 – 143.7%
+5.8
2
3
 Geelong 9 6 – 120.6%
+5.7
4
4
 Melbourne 9∗ 5 – 105.7%
+4.3
7
5
 Hawthorn 8∗ 4 1 113.2%
+6.7
3
6
 Adelaide 8∗ 5 – 112.4%
+6.2
5
7
 Brisbane Lions 8∗ 6 – 108.4%
+5.2
6
8
 Western Bulldogs 8∗ 6 – 90.7%
+4.6
8
9
 Gold Coast 7∗ 6 – 107.2%
+4.6
9
10
 St Kilda 6∗ 8 – 102.4%
+5.0
10
11
 GWS 6∗ 7 – 102.3%
+4.9
11
12
 North Melbourne 6∗ 7 – 88.5%
+4.0
14
13
 Collingwood 5∗ 7 1 99.2%
+5.2
12
14
 Carlton 5∗ 8 – 88.7%
+5.2
13
15
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 9 – 101.0%
+4.3
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 10 – 72.7%
+2.6
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 11 – 61.1%
+2.5
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 13 – 70.4%
+2.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 1

94 29.7584 29.76 25.9167 25.92 77.0492 77.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 1

93 29.3983 29.40 25.3661 25.37 76.2295 76.2%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 1

93 19.9422 19.94 26.1212 26.12 76.2295 76.2%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 1

90 29.5971 29.60 26.1999 26.20 73.7705 73.8%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 1

89 30.8575 30.86 25.8784 25.88 72.9508 73.0%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 1

89 28.8714 28.87 26.9180 26.92 72.9508 73.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 1

89 28.8610 28.86 26.3238 26.32 72.9508 73.0%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 1

89 28.0062 28.01 26.1300 26.13 72.9508 73.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 1

89 25.4109 25.41 26.9252 26.93 72.9508 73.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 1

88 29.8214 29.82 26.5651 26.57 72.1311 72.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 1

88 27.8219 27.82 28.0164 28.02 72.1311 72.1%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 1

88 26.4293 26.43 26.3731 26.37 72.1311 72.1%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 1

87 27.3866 27.39 26.8180 26.82 71.3115 71.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5

87 22.0907 22.09 26.9587 26.96 †1 71.9008 71.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 1

86 28.3420 28.34 27.1998 27.20 70.4918 70.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 1

86 24.6298 24.63 28.1682 28.17 †1 71.0744 71.1%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 1

85 28.2750 28.27 25.8289 25.83 69.6721 69.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 1

85 27.7426 27.74 26.3008 26.30 69.6721 69.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 1

85 26.5795 26.58 26.5052 26.51 69.6721 69.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 1

85 24.2780 24.28 26.5459 26.55 69.6721 69.7%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 1

84 26.7252 26.73 27.2705 27.27 68.8525 68.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 1

84 26.3861 26.39 26.5082 26.51 68.8525 68.9%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 0

83 28.4755 28.48 27.7319 27.73 68.0328 68.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 1

83 23.9469 23.95 26.5115 26.51 68.0328 68.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 0

83 22.5363 22.54 27.5503 27.55 68.0328 68.0%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 1

83 21.8231 21.82 26.8770 26.88 68.0328 68.0%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 1

82 25.0090 25.01 28.0164 28.02 67.2131 67.2%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 1

82 23.6787 23.68 26.8021 26.80 67.2131 67.2%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 1

79 21.8353 21.84 27.3363 27.34 †9 69.9115 69.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 1

79 20.7719 20.77 27.5656 27.57 64.7541 64.8%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 1

68 23.0023 23.00 27.7887 27.79 †25 70.1031 70.1%

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