Site launch - Squiggle

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

2018 Tip Leaderboard

Final standings after 207 games.

Tips

Bits

MAE

Correct

Punters

7 3 7 6 5 8 8 5 7 6 7 5 6 5 5 8 3 7 7 5 5 7 8 4 2 1 0

147

39.76

71.0%

7 3 8 7 4 7 8 6 6 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 3 7 7 7 6 7 7 4 2 0 0

147

38.01

26.55

71.0%

Aggregate

7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 7 4 6 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 5 7 7 4 2 0 0

147

37.30

26.63

71.0%

7 3 8 7 5 6 8 5 6 6 8 4 5 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 6 7 7 3 2 0 1

147

33.63

27.17

71.0%

6 3 7 7 5 7 8 5 6 7 7 3 6 5 5 8 3 6 8 7 5 7 8 4 2 1 0

146

39.27

26.73

70.5%

6 3 8 7 4 9 8 6 5 5 8 4 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 7 5 8 7 2 2 1 1

146

33.24

27.54

70.5%

7 4 7 7 5 6 8 5 6 7 7 3 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 8 5 7 7 3 2 1 1

146

29.66

27.23

70.5%

6 4 8 5 6 8 8 5 5 6 9 4 5 4 3 9 3 7 8 6 5 8 9 3 2 0 0

146

24.79

29.11

70.5%

6 3 8 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 4 5 7 6 5 7 7 3 2 0 0

142

34.55

27.05

68.6%

7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 7 5 8 3 4 5 5 8 4 6 6 5 5 7 7 3 2 1 0

141

32.75

27.26

68.1%

7 3 8 7 4 6 8 5 6 6 7 4 5 5 4 8 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 3 2 1 0

140

35.05

27.43

67.6%

6 4 6 6 3 8 6 6 5 5 7 4 6 4 4 8 6 4 6 7 7 8 9 2 2 0 0

139

28.20

28.15

67.1%

6 3 7 7 5 7 7 5 5 6 7 3 6 5 4 8 3 6 7 4 6 7 8 4 2 0 0

138

37.90

26.61

66.7%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	14	8	128.9
2	GWS	14	8	127.6
3	Melbourne	14	8	126.6
4	West Coast	14	8	122.6
5	Geelong	13	9	118.8
6	Collingwood	13	9	116.8
7	Essendon	13	9	113.7
8	Adelaide	13	9	112.1
9	Hawthorn	12	10	107.1
10	Port Adelaide	12	10	105.6
11	North Melbourne	11	11	98.2
12	Brisbane Lions	10	12	92.7
13	St Kilda	10	12	92.6
14	Western Bulldogs	9	13	87.2
15	Sydney	9	13	85.2
16	Fremantle	8	14	78.9
17	Carlton	6	16	65.8
18	Gold Coast	4	18	59.6