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Who won the pre-season?

Posted on March 14, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

FootyMaths institute takes a stab at rating pre-season performance by adjusting for quality of opposition:

And as it happens, by the FMI method, St Kilda did indeed have a good pre-season series. And as another wake-up call to the competition, Essendon were next best, with Richmond and Brisbane all but a tie for third.

Read more at: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: POST-JLT: BREAK

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Pre-season

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.6 143%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 16.6 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.8 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.1 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Adelaide 14.7 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 Geelong 13.8 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
7
 Melbourne 14.1 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Collingwood 13.4 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Western Bulldogs 13.6 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
10
 St Kilda 11.0 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 GWS 10.5 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Carlton 10.6 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
13
 North Melbourne 9.6 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Port Adelaide 8.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
15
 Gold Coast 8.5 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 5.3 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Essendon 3.1 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 3.3 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 6 games of Round 20, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 17 2 – 146.0%
+2.6
1
2
 Sydney 14 5 – 130.0%
+2.6
2
3
 Hawthorn 13 5 1 124.0%
+2.3
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 12∗ 6 – 117.8%
+3.1
4
5
 Adelaide 12 7 – 113.7%
+2.7
5
6
 Melbourne 12 7 – 107.8%
+2.1
7
7
 Collingwood 11 7 1 107.7%
+1.9
8
8
 Geelong 11 8 – 116.5%
+2.8
6
9
 Western Bulldogs 11∗ 7 – 93.2%
+2.6
9
10
 Carlton 9 10 – 92.4%
+1.6
12
11
 St Kilda 8∗ 10 – 104.0%
+3.0
10
12
 GWS 8 11 – 98.3%
+2.5
11
13
 North Melbourne 8∗ 10 – 90.9%
+1.6
13
14
 Gold Coast 7 12 – 94.8%
+1.5
15
15
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 12 – 99.2%
+2.2
14
16
 West Coast 4 15 – 70.1%
+1.3
16
17
 Essendon 2 17 – 65.4%
+1.1
17
18
 Richmond 2∗ 16 – 61.7%
+1.3
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 4

128 40.5028 40.50 24.9513 24.95 76.1905 76.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 5

127 42.2224 42.22 25.5774 25.58 75.5952 75.6%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 5

126 39.2733 39.27 24.5501 24.55 75.0000 75.0%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 4

126 27.6562 27.66 25.2322 25.23 75.0000 75.0%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 5

124 41.7050 41.70 25.0060 25.01 73.8095 73.8%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 5

124 40.4962 40.50 25.1336 25.13 73.8095 73.8%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 5

123 41.4100 41.41 25.0948 25.09 73.2143 73.2%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 5

123 39.4826 39.48 25.0231 25.02 73.2143 73.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 5

123 36.7202 36.72 25.5626 25.56 73.2143 73.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 5

122 42.7304 42.73 25.3721 25.37 72.6190 72.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 5

122 39.2674 39.27 25.5655 25.57 72.6190 72.6%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 5

122 36.7686 36.77 25.4919 25.49 72.6190 72.6%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 5

121 40.0567 40.06 26.2500 26.25 72.0238 72.0%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 5

121 37.4636 37.46 25.9126 25.91 72.0238 72.0%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 5

120 40.1575 40.16 25.5752 25.58 71.4286 71.4%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 5

120 39.0364 39.04 25.0544 25.05 71.4286 71.4%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 5

119 38.7539 38.75 25.1288 25.13 70.8333 70.8%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 5

119 38.1725 38.17 25.2727 25.27 70.8333 70.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 4

119 35.3670 35.37 25.3512 25.35 70.8333 70.8%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 4

119 30.1564 30.16 26.2695 26.27 †1 71.2575 71.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 4

118 35.7388 35.74 26.6947 26.69 †2 71.0843 71.1%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 5

118 35.5233 35.52 25.4280 25.43 70.2381 70.2%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 4

118 31.3976 31.40 25.7339 25.73 70.2381 70.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 5

116 36.5254 36.53 25.7381 25.74 69.0476 69.0%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 4

115 37.1551 37.16 26.6392 26.64 68.4524 68.5%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 5

115 35.9507 35.95 26.6131 26.61 68.4524 68.5%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 5

114 34.2785 34.28 25.6052 25.61 67.8571 67.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 5

114 33.4254 33.43 26.7440 26.74 67.8571 67.9%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 5

114 33.1983 33.20 26.0503 26.05 †9 71.6981 71.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 4

114 30.5379 30.54 26.7508 26.75 67.8571 67.9%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 5

103 35.5494 35.55 26.2692 26.27 †25 72.0280 72.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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