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Who won the pre-season?

Posted on March 14, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

FootyMaths institute takes a stab at rating pre-season performance by adjusting for quality of opposition:

And as it happens, by the FMI method, St Kilda did indeed have a good pre-season series. And as another wake-up call to the competition, Essendon were next best, with Richmond and Brisbane all but a tie for third.

Read more at: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: POST-JLT: BREAK

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Pre-season

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 18.2 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Adelaide 16.1 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Geelong 15.9 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.8 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Gold Coast 15.1 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Western Bulldogs 14.5 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
7
 Hawthorn 14.2 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
8
 GWS 14.1 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 Fremantle 13.8 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Sydney 11.0 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Port Adelaide 9.8 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
12
 Carlton 8.8 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 Melbourne 8.9 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
14
 St Kilda 8.4 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Essendon 8.1 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 North Melbourne 6.3 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.3 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 3.0 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 8 games of Round 18, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 14 3 – 136.1%
+4.2
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 12 4 1 116.8%
+3.3
4
3
 Adelaide 12 5 – 136.1%
+4.1
2
4
 Geelong 11 6 – 127.6%
+4.9
3
5
 Gold Coast 11∗ 5 – 121.8%
+4.1
5
6
 Hawthorn 11 6 – 116.8%
+3.2
7
7
 GWS 11 6 – 113.1%
+3.1
8
8
 Fremantle 11 6 – 109.3%
+2.8
9
9
 Western Bulldogs 10 7 – 129.8%
+4.5
6
10
 Sydney 8 9 – 94.2%
+3.0
10
11
 Port Adelaide 7∗ 9 – 87.6%
+2.8
11
12
 Carlton 6 11 – 93.7%
+2.8
12
13
 Melbourne 6 11 – 89.7%
+2.9
13
14
 Essendon 6∗ 10 – 76.5%
+2.1
15
15
 St Kilda 5 12 – 86.2%
+3.4
14
16
 North Melbourne 4 12 1 76.7%
+1.8
16
17
 Richmond 4 13 – 64.4%
+1.3
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 15 – 63.9%
+2.0
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 5

115 29.43 25.72 76.2%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 5

113 25.40 26.37 74.8%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 4

112 28.51 25.69 74.2%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 4

112 28.27 25.67 74.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 4

112 28.18 26.53 74.2%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 5

112 27.93 25.54 74.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 4

111 29.11 25.52 73.5%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 4

111 29.09 25.65 73.5%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4

111 28.16 25.59 73.5%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 4

109 29.38 26.45 72.2%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 2

109 28.04 27.07 72.2%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 5

109 26.28 26.21 72.2%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 3

108 30.24 25.23 71.5%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 5

108 26.19 26.35 71.5%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 4

107 29.02 25.30 70.9%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 5

107 28.83 25.25 70.9%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 4

107 27.73 25.94 70.9%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 3

106 26.35 26.33 70.2%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 3

106 25.53 25.78 70.2%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 3

105 19.46 27.88 69.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 2

104 26.53 26.39 68.9%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 5

104 24.89 26.99 68.9%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 4

103 23.64 27.32 68.2%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 3

102 27.47 26.22 67.5%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 4

101 25.03 26.38 66.9%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 5

100 22.38 27.62 66.2%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 3

100 13.93 28.59 66.2%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 2

97 22.62 27.34 64.2%

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