Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

Wins

Range

Adelaide

18.0

139%

Geelong

17.0

141%

Brisbane Lions

16.5

114%

Collingwood

16.0

122%

GWS

16.0

115%

Fremantle

16.0

109%

Gold Coast

15.0

125%

Hawthorn

15.0

121%

Western Bulldogs

14.0

137%

Sydney

12.0

97%

Carlton

9.0

97%

St Kilda

9.0

89%

Port Adelaide

9.0

80%

Melbourne

7.0

93%

Essendon

6.0

70%

North Melbourne

5.5

76%

Richmond

5.0

66%

West Coast

1.0

60%

PROJECTIONS

History

Wins

Finish

Adelaide

–

139.3%

+0.0

Geelong

–

141.5%

+0.0

Brisbane Lions

114.2%

+0.0

Collingwood

–

122.4%

+0.0

GWS

–

115.3%

+0.0

Fremantle

–

109.0%

+0.0

Gold Coast

–

124.9%

+0.0

Hawthorn

–

120.9%

+0.0

Western Bulldogs

–

137.0%

+0.0

Sydney

–

97.0%

+0.0

Carlton

–

96.7%

+0.0

St Kilda

–

88.5%

+0.0

Port Adelaide

–

79.8%

+0.0

Melbourne

–

93.3%

+0.0

Essendon

–

69.5%

+0.0

North Melbourne

76.3%

+0.0

Richmond

–

66.0%

+0.0

West Coast

–

60.1%

+0.0

Models Leaderboard

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 2	160	48.01	25.80	76.2%
2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 8 1	159	49.34	26.03	75.7%
2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 6 8 2	158	45.80	26.82	75.2%
Punters 1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1	157	52.30	25.93	74.8%
Aggregate 2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1	157	48.12	26.01	74.8%
2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8 7 7 8 1	157	47.72	25.72	74.8%
2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8 6 6 8 2	157	42.46	26.42	74.8%
1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1	156	48.48	26.01	74.3%
s10 2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1	156	47.98	25.88	74.3%
2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8 7 7 8 2	154	47.11	27.42	73.3%
1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 1	153	47.27	26.20	72.9%
1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8 7 7 7 1	152	49.48	27.40	72.4%
2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1	152	47.63	26.10	72.4%
1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8 6 8 8 0	152	44.38	26.54	72.4%
2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 8 1	151	51.51	25.67	71.9%
1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 1	151	51.09	25.56	71.9%
2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8 7 7 7 1	151	50.70	25.82	71.9%
1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8 8 8 8 1	151	49.77	26.41	71.9%
1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8 7 7 7 2	151	46.01	26.61	71.9%
2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8 7 8 8 2	151	45.47	26.89	71.9%
1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8 7 7 8 1	151	36.41	27.76	71.9%
2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8 7 7 8 2	149	41.37	27.51	71.0%
1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8 7 7 8	148	44.18	26.94^†3	71.5%
1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7 8 7 8 1	148	42.57	27.66	70.5%
1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 7 8	148	41.34	27.52^†3	71.5%
1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8 7 7 8 1	147	25.54	29.02	70.0%
1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8 7 6 8 1	146	43.40	26.94	69.5%
2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8 8 6 6 2	141	39.61	28.07	67.1%

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

Finals Week 1, 2025

Site launch