LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sydney Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Melbourne Hawthorn Brisbane Lions Adelaide St Kilda Western Bulldogs Collingwood North Melbourne Greater Western Sydney Port Adelaide West Coast Carlton Essendon Richmond
Stattraction 67.7 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.6 5.2 5.8 5.7 6.7 6.4 6.9 7.3 8.2 3.9 3.5 6.3 5.7 3.8 6.5 5.0 7.2 5.0 -1.9 4.8 7.3 4.3 8.2 7.7 6.6 8.8 8.6
Live Ladders 66.0 3.0 3.9 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.9 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.7 7.7 3.2 2.9 8.1 5.4 1.8 3.1 6.9 6.8 5.8 1.4 4.8 6.9 3.3 7.4 7.5 7.2 8.6 7.9
AFLalytics 65.9 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.4 5.0 5.9 5.7 6.4 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.9 3.7 4.0 4.3 5.0 2.4 5.2 6.5 6.9 6.0 1.3 5.3 7.3 4.6 6.5 7.6 6.6 8.0 7.6
Wheelo Ratings 65.3 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.4 5.0 5.7 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.4 6.9 7.7 3.0 3.6 5.1 5.7 1.2 5.0 6.5 7.0 6.1 -0.1 5.9 7.4 3.9 7.0 7.8 6.7 8.3 7.8
Winnable 65.0 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.5 5.1 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.7 7.5 3.8 3.5 5.6 4.6 -0.2 5.7 5.5 6.7 6.6 1.1 5.7 7.5 5.8 7.4 7.7 4.4 8.7 7.4
AFL Lab 64.8 3.0 3.8 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.3 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.7 7.5 1.4 2.1 7.7 3.0 3.0 5.2 4.8 6.9 6.7 1.7 5.8 7.2 4.1 7.1 7.7 6.0 8.4 8.3
ZaphBot 63.9 1.9 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.6 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.3 3.7 3.4 6.1 5.7 2.5 5.6 6.4 6.3 4.1 -2.5 4.9 6.8 4.3 7.4 7.5 6.4 8.4 8.9
Matter of Stats 61.9 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.6 5.8 5.5 6.3 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.6 3.2 4.3 3.6 4.7 0.6 5.0 5.6 7.1 6.2 1.2 5.3 7.2 1.7 6.7 7.7 6.8 8.3 7.7
What Snoo Thinks 61.7 3.1 3.1 3.7 3.7 3.7 5.7 5.7 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 7.9 0.8 3.1 6.5 4.7 4.5 5.5 6.9 5.4 6.5 -3.7 2.3 7.4 3.6 7.9 7.8 8.0 8.5 6.7
PlusSixOne 61.6 3.1 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.7 5.1 5.2 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.7 2.7 5.7 5.6 3.6 -1.7 6.1 6.4 6.4 5.6 2.1 4.5 7.1 2.7 6.2 7.8 6.4 7.9 7.6
Squiggle 60.9 2.5 2.9 3.9 3.8 4.5 5.5 5.2 6.1 5.8 6.2 6.8 7.7 4.4 3.0 4.8 5.4 -2.9 5.4 6.5 6.9 6.2 -1.9 5.4 7.3 5.8 6.3 7.5 5.5 7.1 8.6
The Footycast 57.9 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.2 4.0 4.0 5.4 6.4 6.0 6.4 6.4 7.1 -0.1 3.5 6.5 2.5 1.5 5.1 4.3 7.2 5.1 0.8 4.2 7.5 2.0 7.1 6.9 5.9 8.3 8.3
Graft 57.8 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.9 5.1 5.1 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.8 0.8 3.4 7.6 5.3 -1.4 6.3 7.3 3.9 5.3 -2.5 2.5 6.6 3.0 7.9 6.8 6.8 7.9 9.0
Don't Blame the Data 56.7 2.8 2.5 3.2 3.4 4.0 5.1 4.9 5.6 5.6 5.9 6.3 7.3 0.7 2.8 8.2 5.0 -2.5 4.7 6.5 7.3 4.5 -3.9 1.7 6.7 2.8 8.3 7.6 7.0 9.1 8.4
Glicko Ratings 51.3 2.9 2.9 3.7 3.9 4.4 5.1 4.7 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.5 1.4 2.9 6.5 6.1 -2.8 5.3 5.7 7.1 6.2 -4.1 5.6 7.3 0.2 8.0 7.3 5.7 6.8 8.7
Informed Stats 47.3 1.9 2.5 2.6 3.7 4.3 3.5 5.1 4.9 5.1 6.1 7.6 -0.2 4.9 4.6 2.0 0.6 2.7 5.6 5.1 3.5 -1.5 1.7 7.5 2.4 8.5 6.4 5.5 9.0 9.1
Ladder 31.2 -2.7 -2.1 -0.8 -0.1 0.8 3.5 5.1 4.1 6.1 7.4 10.0 8.4 2.5 -5.2 5.2 0.9 4.7 0.1 2.5 1.4 -3.1 3.0 -3.4 4.1 2.0 5.2 6.5 8.4 7.9
Elo Predicts! 30.2 -0.8 -0.7 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 2.9 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.3 6.5 -1.3 0.0 7.2 2.0 -7.6 4.8 2.5 6.2 2.9 -4.7 -0.7 3.5 -2.3 7.3 3.9 5.1 7.9 8.6

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.95955000 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.94010956 Graft Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.92574541 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.91581915 Graft Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.89451471 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.83108871 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.82350588 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.82350588 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.79420788 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 9
9.78129703 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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18
 18th 7
9.77869626 The Footycast Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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17
18
 18th 7
9.77643953 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.75859903 Stattraction Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.75713235 The Footycast Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.75212524 Matter of Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.75045241 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.74701874 Don't Blame the Data Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.74426350 Matter of Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.74296618 Don't Blame the Data Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.73520071 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.72155753 Graft Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.71693382 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 9
9.70432579 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.69926741 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.69443818 Stattraction Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.68291735 Wheelo Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-15.2 Graft Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-14.4 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 4
-14.4 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 2
-14.3 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 3
-13.7 Live Ladders Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-13.5 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-13.4 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
-13.0 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 1
-13.0 Informed Stats Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 3
-12.6 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-12.5 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-12.5 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-12.3 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th -1
-12.2 Informed Stats Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 2
-12.0 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 2
-11.9 ZaphBot Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-11.7 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 2
-11.6 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 3
-11.4 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 3
-11.3 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-11.1 ZaphBot Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 4
-10.9 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 1
-10.8 The Footycast Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-10.8 The Footycast Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-10.8 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 2

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
48.8 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 4
48.8 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 2
48.5 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 3
46.7 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
46.1 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 1
44.7 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th -1
44.0 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 2
43.4 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 2
43.3 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
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9
10
11
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13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 3
42.8 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 3
42.1 ZaphBot Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 4
41.8 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 1
41.5 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 2
40.9 Graft Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 4
40.5 Glicko Ratings Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 2
40.3 Glicko Ratings Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 3
39.9 Squiggle Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 2
39.6 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 3
39.4 Stattraction Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
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9
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11
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13
14
15
16
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18
 10th 2
39.4 Glicko Ratings Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 4
39.3 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 1
39.3 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
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7
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9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 2
39.3 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 3
39.2 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 4
39.1 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 1
39.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 4

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-50.5 Graft Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-47.4 Live Ladders Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-47.0 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-46.0 Informed Stats Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 3
-45.2 Elo Predicts! Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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 1st 0
-45.0 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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-45.0 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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-44.3 Informed Stats Sydney
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-43.8 ZaphBot Sydney
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-42.5 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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-41.7 The Footycast Sydney
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-41.7 The Footycast Sydney
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-40.7 Graft Sydney
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-40.5 AFL Lab Sydney
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-40.2 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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-40.0 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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-40.0 Stattraction Sydney
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-39.8 Don't Blame the Data Sydney
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-39.7 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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-39.6 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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-39.6 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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-39.2 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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-39.0 Informed Stats Gold Coast
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 4th 7
-39.0 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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-38.8 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th -1