LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Fremantle Sydney Brisbane Lions Hawthorn Melbourne Geelong Adelaide Collingwood Western Bulldogs Carlton St Kilda Greater Western Sydney North Melbourne Gold Coast Port Adelaide West Coast Richmond Essendon
Winnable 169.3 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.7 7.4 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.4 9.7 5.5 7.6 6.3 7.9 3.2 7.3 7.3 7.1 5.7 5.8 7.8 7.5 8.1 0.7 7.6 9.2 8.8 8.5
AFL Lab 167.8 4.2 4.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.5 5.3 5.4 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.7 8.8 9.3 9.6 4.7 6.6 6.5 8.0 4.8 6.6 7.3 7.1 5.9 4.9 8.0 6.9 8.3 1.4 7.3 9.2 9.0 8.1
Stattraction 165.9 4.2 3.8 4.1 3.9 4.3 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.9 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.7 8.3 8.9 9.7 5.6 7.5 6.0 8.0 5.3 7.1 7.1 7.4 4.3 3.9 8.2 7.2 8.5 -1.8 8.3 9.3 9.1 8.4
The Footycast 165.0 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 5.3 5.6 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.6 5.6 5.8 6.0 8.2 4.5 7.0 7.1 7.3 5.5 4.5 7.7 5.9 8.2 1.8 7.4 9.1 9.1 8.1
Matter of Stats 163.7 4.1 3.6 4.1 3.8 3.8 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.6 7.2 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.6 8.6 9.4 9.7 6.0 7.3 6.1 8.0 3.6 6.9 7.2 7.3 5.8 4.2 7.9 5.8 8.3 0.8 7.0 9.1 8.7 8.0
PlusSixOne 161.8 3.9 3.1 3.6 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.8 7.8 7.8 8.3 8.6 8.7 9.3 9.5 7.0 7.2 5.1 7.9 2.2 7.4 7.0 7.0 5.6 4.3 7.7 6.2 7.7 1.6 7.0 8.8 8.9 7.9
Wheelo Ratings 161.5 3.8 3.4 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.5 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.6 8.7 9.4 9.6 5.6 7.2 4.9 8.0 4.3 7.2 7.2 7.0 5.2 4.3 7.8 6.7 8.1 -0.5 7.3 9.0 8.8 8.2
Live Ladders 159.8 3.8 3.8 4.3 3.7 4.1 4.9 4.8 4.7 5.4 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.1 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.8 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.6 8.7 9.4 9.6 5.0 7.2 4.1 7.9 4.1 6.3 6.9 7.5 5.7 4.0 8.2 6.6 8.4 -1.0 7.6 9.3 8.9 8.3
Squiggle 156.5 3.3 2.7 3.5 2.9 3.3 4.6 4.6 4.9 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.4 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.7 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.6 8.6 9.3 9.6 5.3 7.8 4.8 8.0 2.0 7.1 7.0 7.2 4.2 4.8 7.8 7.5 8.1 -0.6 6.8 8.7 8.9 7.3
Informed Stats 156.0 2.3 2.5 2.4 3.2 5.2 5.1 5.7 6.7 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.9 6.3 6.9 7.7 7.6 8.1 8.5 7.8 7.9 8.5 8.6 9.5 9.5 6.6 6.1 4.6 7.2 3.6 7.4 6.4 7.7 4.1 4.1 7.8 6.5 8.8 0.4 8.4 9.3 9.3 8.6
Graft 151.1 2.1 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.7 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.9 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.5 8.6 9.2 9.6 5.5 6.2 3.4 8.1 2.4 6.5 6.1 7.4 4.0 4.0 8.1 6.5 8.4 -1.6 7.9 9.2 9.0 7.6
Don't Blame the Data 145.2 3.2 2.2 2.7 2.6 3.1 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.1 9.1 9.2 5.0 6.2 5.0 7.8 1.5 6.0 7.6 7.5 2.6 2.5 8.4 6.6 8.6 -1.9 7.9 9.4 9.3 9.0
Glicko Ratings 141.0 3.3 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.5 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.8 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.9 8.9 5.1 6.7 5.2 8.0 2.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 3.5 4.0 8.1 3.7 8.3 -3.5 8.6 9.1 9.0 7.0
Elo Predicts! 138.5 0.5 0.2 2.0 1.5 1.7 2.0 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.6 6.3 6.2 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.2 8.0 8.3 7.9 8.4 8.4 9.4 9.5 3.9 5.4 6.6 7.7 -2.2 6.7 7.4 8.0 2.9 2.2 8.5 3.9 7.1 -1.0 7.3 8.4 9.4 7.6
AFLalytics 135.3 3.8 3.2 3.7 3.5 4.0 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.6 5.4 7.2 4.2 7.7 4.3 7.0 6.8 6.7 5.2 3.8 7.5 6.7 7.6 -1.2 6.7 8.8 8.6 7.7
What Snoo Thinks 131.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.4 4.4 5.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.9 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 4.8 6.0 -0.6 7.9 4.9 6.0 7.1 7.1 2.9 1.5 8.0 5.8 8.4 -4.7 8.4 9.0 8.4 8.1
ZaphBot 131.1 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.4 5.1 5.4 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.3 7.7 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.6 5.3 7.1 4.6 8.0 4.6 6.7 6.6 6.8 2.9 2.5 7.4 6.6 7.6 -2.8 7.6 8.7 9.0 8.1
Ladder 92.0 -3.1 -2.4 -3.1 -3.1 -2.7 0.5 1.2 2.5 3.5 5.1 3.5 5.8 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.1 6.1 8.0 7.7 7.4 7.7 8.4 9.0 10.0 5.2 8.7 -1.8 6.7 4.4 2.9 3.1 5.0 2.5 0.2 5.8 5.3 1.4 -8.6 5.2 6.8 8.2 7.9

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 16
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 17
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 18
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 19
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 20
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 20
10.00000000 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 21
10.00000000 Stattraction Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 21
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 21
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 21
10.00000000 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 22
10.00000000 Informed Stats Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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18
 15th 22
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 15th 22
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 22
9.99999997 Stattraction Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 1st 22
9.99999988 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 16th 20
9.99999988 Informed Stats Sydney
1
2
3
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8
9
10
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18
 2nd 22
9.99999800 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 1st 19
9.99999800 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 20
9.99999706 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 1st 19
9.99999706 ZaphBot Fremantle
1
2
3
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5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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17
18
 1st 20
9.99999565 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 16th 19
9.99999421 Stattraction Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
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12
13
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18
 1st 20
9.99999247 Informed Stats Essendon
1
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 18th 21
9.99999047 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
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9
10
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18
 16th 22
9.99998824 Informed Stats Essendon
1
2
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8
9
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 18th 22

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-18.0 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 2
-17.6 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 3
-16.9 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
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13
14
15
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18
 14th 3
-16.2 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
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13
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18
 14th 2
-16.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
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8
9
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18
 14th 0
-16.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
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8
9
10
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18
 14th 2
-16.0 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
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9
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18
 14th 1
-15.9 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
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8
9
10
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18
 14th 3
-15.7 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
9
10
11
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13
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18
 14th 2
-15.6 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
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8
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18
 14th 3
-15.2 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
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18
 14th 2
-15.2 Squiggle Gold Coast
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18
 14th 2
-15.1 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
2
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18
 14th 3
-15.0 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
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8
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18
 14th 3
-15.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
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8
9
10
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18
 14th 3
-14.3 Graft Gold Coast
1
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18
 14th 0
-14.1 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
1
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 14th 2
-14.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
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9
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18
 14th 0
-13.9 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
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 14th 3
-13.6 Graft Gold Coast
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 14th 1
-13.5 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
1
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 5th 0
-13.5 Live Ladders Gold Coast
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 14th 2
-13.5 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
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8
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18
 14th 2
-13.2 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
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13
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18
 14th 1
-13.1 Live Ladders Gold Coast
1
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9
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18
 14th 3

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
56.0 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
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9
10
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18
 14th 2
55.3 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
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18
 14th 3
53.7 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
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18
 14th 3
52.5 Graft Gold Coast
1
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18
 14th 2
52.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
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 14th 0
52.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
11
12
13
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18
 14th 2
52.0 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
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18
 14th 1
51.9 Graft Gold Coast
1
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18
 14th 3
51.4 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
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18
 14th 2
51.1 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
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 14th 3
50.4 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
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18
 14th 2
50.3 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
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 14th 2
50.1 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
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9
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18
 14th 3
50.0 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
3
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18
 14th 3
49.9 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 14th 3
48.6 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
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9
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18
 14th 0
48.1 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
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18
 14th 2
47.9 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
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9
10
11
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18
 14th 0
47.7 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
3
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8
9
10
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13
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18
 14th 3
47.3 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
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 14th 1
46.9 Live Ladders Gold Coast
1
2
3
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8
9
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18
 14th 2
46.9 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
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12
13
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18
 14th 2
46.5 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
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 14th 1
46.1 Live Ladders Gold Coast
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 14th 3
45.9 AFLalytics Gold Coast
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 14th 3
45.7 AFLalytics Gold Coast
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 14th 2

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-47.0 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th 0
-46.1 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 3
-45.5 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 0
-45.5 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st -1
-44.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 2
-44.6 Graft Sydney
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 2nd -1
-41.5 Live Ladders Sydney
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 2nd -1
-40.1 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 3
-40.0 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th 5
-39.6 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 1st 1
-39.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 2nd 0
-39.2 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 2nd 0
-39.2 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 2nd -1
-38.8 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th -1
-38.7 Squiggle Melbourne
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 5th 2
-38.4 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 2
-37.9 ZaphBot Sydney
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 2nd -1
-37.5 PlusSixOne Melbourne
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 5th -1
-36.7 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th 1
-36.7 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 5th 2
-36.7 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 2nd -1
-36.3 Squiggle Melbourne
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 5th 0
-36.1 PlusSixOne Melbourne
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 5th 0
-35.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 2nd 0
-35.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 2nd -1