LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Fremantle Sydney Hawthorn Brisbane Lions Adelaide Melbourne Geelong Western Bulldogs Collingwood Carlton North Melbourne Greater Western Sydney Gold Coast St Kilda Port Adelaide West Coast Richmond Essendon
Winnable 116.3 4.3 4.2 4.7 4.4 4.7 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.3 7.4 7.9 8.1 8.1 4.2 6.9 7.5 7.0 7.0 3.6 5.5 5.6 7.0 5.2 6.7 7.1 0.3 3.7 7.2 8.9 8.6 8.1
AFLalytics 112.0 3.8 3.3 4.2 3.9 4.3 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.8 6.1 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.1 8.6 4.7 6.8 7.7 5.4 5.8 5.4 5.8 5.5 6.9 3.4 7.1 6.5 -0.4 4.5 6.5 8.6 8.5 7.4
Wheelo Ratings 109.9 3.8 3.5 4.3 3.8 4.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.8 8.0 8.4 4.2 6.4 8.0 5.9 6.0 4.8 5.5 5.0 7.1 3.3 6.7 6.1 -1.1 4.4 6.7 8.7 8.6 7.7
ZaphBot 109.9 2.6 3.4 3.9 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.4 5.9 6.1 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.3 8.0 8.4 8.8 4.5 6.7 7.8 5.9 6.1 5.6 5.3 3.8 7.0 1.9 6.6 6.3 -2.1 6.1 7.3 8.5 8.9 7.9
Live Ladders 107.5 3.5 3.6 4.7 3.8 4.0 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.3 6.3 7.0 7.1 7.7 8.1 8.5 3.5 6.4 8.5 5.2 5.4 5.0 3.5 5.8 7.3 2.8 5.8 5.9 -1.7 5.5 7.1 9.1 8.8 8.0
Squiggle 105.6 3.2 2.8 4.1 3.3 3.6 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.9 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.7 7.9 8.2 3.9 7.2 7.8 5.8 5.7 2.3 5.5 4.2 7.1 3.8 6.7 7.0 -1.2 4.4 6.1 8.3 8.8 6.6
AFL Lab 105.1 3.8 3.8 5.0 4.7 4.7 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.6 6.7 7.1 7.3 7.7 7.9 2.7 5.3 7.9 7.2 6.0 5.5 3.9 6.0 7.1 3.9 6.1 6.2 1.1 4.2 6.7 8.9 8.9 7.6
The Footycast 104.6 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.8 5.5 5.8 6.1 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 7.1 7.4 8.0 8.2 3.9 4.3 8.2 6.6 5.9 4.9 4.9 5.4 6.9 3.2 6.9 4.9 1.5 5.1 6.7 8.8 9.0 7.5
PlusSixOne 104.4 3.9 3.2 4.2 3.8 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.2 5.9 6.3 7.2 6.1 6.6 2.5 6.0 5.9 6.7 2.9 6.7 5.2 1.3 4.8 6.1 8.3 8.7 7.3
Stattraction 104.0 4.1 3.7 4.4 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.3 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.8 8.1 3.9 6.6 7.2 6.7 5.7 6.4 4.8 4.2 7.3 2.4 5.9 6.6 -3.1 5.6 7.9 9.0 9.0 8.1
Matter of Stats 102.1 4.0 3.7 4.4 4.0 3.9 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.4 6.6 7.1 7.3 7.8 8.0 4.5 6.4 8.1 6.8 5.6 4.1 5.2 5.6 7.2 2.9 6.0 4.7 0.1 4.1 6.3 8.8 8.4 7.4
Informed Stats 99.0 2.7 3.5 3.1 3.5 5.9 5.4 6.0 6.1 5.6 6.2 6.1 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.8 8.2 8.4 5.2 4.7 8.2 5.5 7.8 4.4 5.6 4.2 6.8 2.7 5.3 5.5 -0.7 5.3 8.2 9.0 9.0 8.1
Don't Blame the Data 93.0 3.1 2.1 3.0 2.6 2.9 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.1 7.6 7.9 3.3 5.0 7.9 6.6 6.6 2.2 2.8 3.0 6.6 0.9 4.6 6.0 -2.5 5.4 7.4 9.2 9.1 8.7
What Snoo Thinks 92.4 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.5 4.5 5.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 3.4 4.9 7.8 2.7 5.9 6.4 4.7 3.1 6.6 0.5 6.0 5.8 -2.4 4.1 8.2 8.9 8.1 7.6
Graft 91.4 2.3 1.8 2.7 2.5 3.0 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.6 7.9 3.8 4.8 7.3 4.3 7.4 2.9 3.5 3.6 6.7 2.6 4.9 5.7 -2.9 4.7 7.4 8.9 8.9 6.9
Glicko Ratings 89.8 3.1 2.7 3.4 3.1 3.4 4.5 4.4 4.8 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.7 6.7 6.7 3.5 5.7 7.8 6.3 3.7 2.4 5.0 3.3 7.2 3.1 6.3 3.0 -4.2 4.7 8.3 8.8 8.8 6.1
Elo Predicts! 75.6 0.6 0.0 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.9 4.1 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.9 7.3 7.2 1.5 3.6 7.4 6.9 8.2 -2.6 3.8 3.0 6.0 0.7 1.2 2.3 -1.5 5.0 6.5 7.8 9.3 6.8
Ladder 49.3 -3.7 -0.8 -2.7 -2.1 -1.4 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.1 4.8 2.5 4.8 4.4 4.8 5.1 6.4 7.4 10.0 3.6 8.2 6.7 -1.8 -0.6 4.9 2.0 2.5 4.8 -2.3 0.8 4.3 -12.1 3.3 3.6 5.8 7.9 7.5

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 16
9.99962353 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 14
9.99948659 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 16
9.99895271 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 16
9.99881176 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 15
9.99825294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 13
9.99800882 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 16
9.99481176 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 16
9.99481176 Elo Predicts! Richmond
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
9
10
11
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 17th 16
9.99319435 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
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9
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 16th 15
9.99291176 ZaphBot Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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15
16
17
18
 1st 16
9.99093859 Don't Blame the Data West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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15
16
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18
 16th 16
9.98902776 Informed Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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18
 16th 14
9.98082353 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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17
18
 15th 15
9.98057953 Stattraction West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 16
9.97787012 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 15
9.97733438 Matter of Stats West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 16
9.97625679 Live Ladders West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 16
9.97344338 Stattraction Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 16
9.97203529 Graft Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 16
9.96875250 Graft West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 16th 16
9.96874706 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 12
9.96827012 Informed Stats Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 14
9.96492329 Informed Stats Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 16
9.96474988 Informed Stats Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 16
9.95829406 AFLalytics West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 16

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-15.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
-14.7 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
-13.9 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 13th 3
-13.3 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
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14
15
16
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18
 13th 2
-13.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
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14
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16
17
18
 13th 0
-13.1 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
-13.0 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
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8
9
10
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12
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14
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18
 13th 1
-13.0 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
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5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 3
-13.0 Graft Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
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14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
-12.8 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
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14
15
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17
18
 13th 2
-12.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 1st 0
-12.7 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st -1
-12.6 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
3
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
-12.4 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 2
-12.3 Graft Sydney
1
2
3
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8
9
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14
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18
 2nd -1
-12.3 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
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8
9
10
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18
 13th 2
-12.2 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 2
-12.1 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
2
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18
 13th 3
-12.0 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
2
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18
 13th 3
-12.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
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14
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18
 13th 3
-11.3 Graft Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 0
-11.2 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
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18
 13th 2
-11.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
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18
 13th 0
-11.0 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 3
-10.8 Live Ladders Sydney
1
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18
 2nd -1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
50.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
3
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8
9
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18
 13th 2
49.4 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 3
47.8 Informed Stats Gold Coast
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 13th 3
46.6 Graft Gold Coast
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 13th 2
46.3 Informed Stats Gold Coast
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18
 13th 0
46.1 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
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8
9
10
11
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18
 13th 2
46.1 Informed Stats Gold Coast
1
2
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18
 13th 1
46.0 Graft Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 3
45.6 Stattraction Gold Coast
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 13th 2
45.3 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
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18
 13th 3
44.6 Glicko Ratings Gold Coast
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18
 13th 2
44.4 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 2
44.3 Stattraction Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 3
44.1 Squiggle Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 3
44.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
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9
10
11
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14
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18
 13th 3
42.7 Graft Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 0
42.4 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 2
42.0 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
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9
10
11
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13
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18
 13th 0
42.0 Wheelo Ratings Gold Coast
1
2
3
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9
10
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14
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18
 13th 3
41.4 Graft Gold Coast
1
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14
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18
 13th 1
41.1 Live Ladders Gold Coast
1
2
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18
 13th 2
41.0 Elo Predicts! Gold Coast
1
2
3
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7
8
9
10
11
12
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14
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17
18
 13th 2
40.8 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
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18
 12th 0
40.6 Don't Blame the Data Gold Coast
1
2
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11
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18
 13th 1
40.3 Live Ladders Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 3
40.2 AFLalytics Gold Coast
1
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18
 13th 3

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-46.1 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
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 1st 3
-45.5 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 0
-45.5 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st -1
-44.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 2
-44.6 Graft Sydney
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 2nd -1
-41.5 Live Ladders Sydney
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 2nd -1
-41.1 Elo Predicts! Melbourne
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 6th 0
-40.1 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 3
-39.6 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 1st 1
-39.4 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 2nd 0
-39.2 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 2nd 0
-39.2 What Snoo Thinks Sydney
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 2nd -1
-38.4 Informed Stats Sydney
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 2nd 2
-37.9 ZaphBot Sydney
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 2nd -1
-36.7 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 2nd -1
-35.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 2nd 0
-35.9 The Footycast Sydney
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 2nd -1
-35.6 Don't Blame the Data Fremantle
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 1st 1
-35.4 Informed Stats Fremantle
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 1st 1
-34.9 Graft Sydney
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 2nd 0
-34.8 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 1st 4
-34.7 AFL Lab Sydney
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 2nd -1
-34.4 Don't Blame the Data Fremantle
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 1st 0
-34.3 AFL Lab Fremantle
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 1st -1
-34.1 Stattraction Sydney
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 2nd -1