LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 Western Bulldogs Sydney Gold Coast Fremantle North Melbourne Melbourne Hawthorn Port Adelaide Brisbane Lions Collingwood Geelong West Coast Adelaide St Kilda Carlton Greater Western Sydney Essendon Richmond
AFLalytics 21.9 1.9 2.9 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.1 5.2 1.8 5.6 4.2 -2.9 3.6 5.8 2.4 5.3 5.5 2.6 5.0 -0.2 5.6 6.1 -3.2 7.6 5.7
Wheelo Ratings 19.3 1.6 2.6 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.4 6.3 0.8 5.9 4.5 -5.7 2.5 5.3 1.1 4.4 6.3 1.5 4.7 -1.0 5.4 6.6 -4.9 8.1 6.1
Squiggle 18.8 0.8 2.3 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.8 7.4 2.9 5.9 3.3 -6.2 -3.2 5.8 2.4 3.2 6.3 1.7 5.5 -1.5 5.4 4.6 -1.2 6.6 7.6
Winnable 16.7 1.3 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.6 5.5 2.0 5.2 4.1 -4.7 0.7 6.1 -0.2 3.7 5.9 -0.0 3.8 -3.2 4.8 4.0 -1.3 8.4 5.5
ZaphBot 16.2 -1.3 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.5 5.4 7.8 1.2 5.3 2.8 -7.8 2.5 5.7 0.8 4.3 5.3 -3.5 3.9 -3.6 7.3 5.8 -5.3 7.8 8.4
PlusSixOne 14.5 0.3 1.4 2.2 2.8 3.5 4.3 3.3 1.6 3.4 6.1 -7.0 -2.2 6.6 4.2 4.3 5.0 -0.1 3.4 -3.6 6.2 6.0 -7.5 7.5 6.4
Ladder 13.4 -5.0 -0.5 3.5 5.4 10.0 5.3 7.1 6.5 -1.8 2.4 0.6 5.9 -1.8 -1.8 2.9 5.3 1.2 0.6 3.5 4.1 -3.5 6.5 5.3
Glicko Ratings 13.0 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.6 7.9 0.2 6.9 4.5 -9.4 -1.0 6.1 -2.4 2.4 6.1 -2.3 1.6 2.2 5.4 5.7 -9.7 6.6 7.9
Matter of Stats 10.9 1.4 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.4 4.6 -0.2 3.3 4.2 -8.4 1.8 5.8 2.1 2.0 5.5 3.9 4.1 -1.6 5.5 6.3 -12.4 7.9 5.1
Stattraction 10.9 0.3 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.4 7.6 0.5 6.3 3.7 -12.0 4.5 7.2 -2.5 0.9 5.3 -1.5 1.1 -4.1 7.0 6.3 -7.2 8.7 7.3
Live Ladders 10.1 -0.6 0.8 1.4 2.4 2.8 3.4 4.0 0.6 4.8 4.0 -12.2 4.0 2.1 -1.2 4.5 5.6 -6.4 1.8 -2.5 5.0 7.7 -6.3 8.5 6.5
AFL Lab 7.6 -0.0 0.9 1.9 2.3 2.5 3.9 -1.7 1.1 2.7 -8.8 4.5 5.7 0.8 0.7 5.6 -5.1 2.0 -2.6 3.3 6.0 -5.5 7.8 7.0
What Snoo Thinks 5.2 -0.0 -0.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 8.3 -3.4 4.7 2.5 -10.9 6.4 6.2 -7.9 7.0 2.6 -3.3 0.7 -11.1 5.0 8.3 -7.9 8.2 3.4
Informed Stats 4.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 8.4 -5.9 8.5 4.5 -11.8 0.3 3.3 -4.5 5.8 2.5 0.0 -1.6 -11.5 8.5 6.4 -10.4 9.2 7.9
The Footycast 4.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.8 4.8 -5.4 1.4 3.6 -9.1 2.5 4.9 1.6 -1.2 5.1 -5.3 -1.7 -2.4 7.3 5.1 -11.8 8.4 7.1
Don't Blame the Data 4.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 8.3 -3.7 7.2 2.7 -14.2 -1.4 6.7 -1.9 3.8 0.9 -8.4 -0.2 -6.5 7.0 7.2 -8.4 8.8 6.9
Graft 3.6 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1.6 1.9 7.6 -5.3 7.3 3.5 -14.4 -0.6 7.4 -1.0 7.0 2.6 -6.1 -0.2 -14.6 7.0 7.0 -10.4 7.9 8.1
Elo Predicts! -8.9 -3.3 -2.3 -0.9 -1.4 -0.9 7.8 -7.5 5.7 -2.4 -19.1 -6.5 7.6 -2.4 -4.2 0.5 -5.7 -6.1 -10.0 6.3 4.7 -16.2 7.9 7.6

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.85692647 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
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 14th -1
9.81173824 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 1st 2
9.78160000 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 1st 3
9.64971247 Informed Stats Essendon
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 17th 3
9.61938165 Informed Stats Richmond
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 18th 3
9.58482059 Elo Predicts! Western Bulldogs
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 1st 1
9.50666379 ZaphBot Richmond
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 18th -1
9.41555294 Informed Stats Essendon
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 17th 1
9.28826471 Elo Predicts! Richmond
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 18th 3
9.27008541 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
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 1st 2
9.18242059 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 17th 3
9.16491932 Graft Western Bulldogs
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 1st 3
9.15860385 Graft Western Bulldogs
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 1st 2
9.15368874 Don't Blame the Data Essendon
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 17th 1
9.13845812 Graft Essendon
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 17th 3
9.10666412 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 14th 1
9.07941329 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
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 1st 3
9.06749224 Stattraction Essendon
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 17th 3
9.03789709 Live Ladders Essendon
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 17th 3
9.02697138 Stattraction Essendon
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 17th 2
9.01466209 Live Ladders Essendon
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 17th 2
8.98679268 Don't Blame the Data Western Bulldogs
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 1st 1
8.96461509 Winnable Essendon
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 17th 3
8.94721471 The Footycast Essendon
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 17th 3
8.93419574 Wheelo Ratings Essendon
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 17th 3
8.92799626 AFLalytics Essendon
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 17th 3

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-22.2 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
-21.8 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-21.2 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 16th -1
-19.8 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-18.8 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-17.6 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 1
-17.6 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 3
-17.5 ZaphBot North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-17.0 Graft Adelaide
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 13th 1
-16.4 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-16.4 Informed Stats Adelaide
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 13th 1
-16.3 Informed Stats Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
-16.1 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-16.1 Graft Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
-16.0 Matter of Stats Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 3
-15.4 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-15.4 Glicko Ratings Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
-15.1 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-15.1 PlusSixOne Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
-15.0 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-14.9 Matter of Stats Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 2
-14.9 ZaphBot Greater Western Sydney
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 16th -1
-14.7 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-14.7 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 3
-14.7 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
64.4 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
62.3 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 16th -1
54.1 Graft Adelaide
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 13th 1
52.7 Informed Stats Adelaide
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 13th 1
52.6 Informed Stats Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
52.1 Graft Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
52.0 Matter of Stats Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 3
50.7 Glicko Ratings Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
50.2 PlusSixOne Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
49.8 Matter of Stats Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 2
49.7 ZaphBot Greater Western Sydney
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 16th -1
49.3 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 1
48.8 Graft Adelaide
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 13th -1
48.6 Graft Adelaide
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 13th 0
48.5 Graft Adelaide
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 13th 2
47.3 ZaphBot Geelong
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 11th -1
46.8 Graft Greater Western Sydney
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 16th -1
46.3 The Footycast Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 1
46.3 The Footycast Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 2
46.3 Informed Stats Adelaide
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 13th 2
46.2 Matter of Stats Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
46.2 Graft Adelaide
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 13th 3
46.0 ZaphBot Greater Western Sydney
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 16th 0
45.6 PlusSixOne Greater Western Sydney
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 16th -1
45.4 Glicko Ratings Greater Western Sydney
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 16th -1
45.3 The Footycast Greater Western Sydney
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 16th -1

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-63.6 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-59.7 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-57.7 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-55.2 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 1
-55.2 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 3
-54.9 ZaphBot North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-52.8 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-52.3 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-50.9 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-50.2 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-49.9 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-49.5 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-49.4 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 3
-49.2 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-48.6 Stattraction North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-47.8 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-47.5 Informed Stats North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-47.5 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-47.5 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-46.0 Stattraction North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-45.8 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th 3
-45.6 Informed Stats North Melbourne
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 5th 3
-45.0 Stattraction North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-44.6 Graft Sydney
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 2nd -1
-44.1 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 5th 3