LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sydney Fremantle Hawthorn Gold Coast North Melbourne Geelong Western Bulldogs Melbourne Brisbane Lions Adelaide Collingwood Port Adelaide St Kilda Greater Western Sydney West Coast Carlton Essendon Richmond
AFLalytics 38.9 2.9 3.4 4.4 4.7 5.1 6.1 5.9 6.4 1.2 2.0 6.4 5.8 -2.9 6.7 4.4 5.9 4.9 5.3 5.1 6.9 6.4 1.9 7.6 5.8 7.6 6.7
Winnable 35.5 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.3 4.8 5.5 5.3 5.3 1.5 1.5 6.2 5.5 -4.4 7.1 4.1 4.4 2.5 3.9 5.7 6.7 5.9 3.5 7.8 3.1 8.4 6.5
Live Ladders 35.2 1.8 2.9 3.9 4.5 4.9 5.8 5.5 5.9 0.2 1.0 8.0 5.7 -10.9 5.5 5.0 6.6 4.5 4.9 4.7 7.1 6.8 -0.2 7.7 7.1 8.3 7.2
Squiggle 34.7 2.0 2.6 4.1 4.0 4.5 5.7 5.5 6.2 2.2 0.7 6.7 6.3 -5.7 6.8 1.8 2.0 3.4 4.9 5.7 6.9 6.4 3.6 7.4 4.3 6.4 8.1
ZaphBot 34.3 0.9 2.7 3.4 4.1 4.9 5.8 5.9 6.5 0.9 0.4 7.0 6.1 -6.3 6.2 0.9 5.6 3.9 3.5 4.4 7.0 7.5 0.9 7.4 5.2 8.0 8.7
PlusSixOne 33.3 2.3 2.6 3.5 3.8 4.5 5.4 5.2 6.0 0.3 4.2 5.8 4.2 -6.1 7.0 5.1 2.7 4.1 3.5 4.2 6.7 6.7 -1.0 7.5 5.4 7.5 7.1
Wheelo Ratings 31.2 2.8 3.4 4.4 4.5 4.9 5.7 5.6 -0.7 1.3 6.9 6.5 -5.6 6.9 3.0 5.4 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.8 6.5 0.4 7.7 5.8 8.0 6.6
Stattraction 27.6 2.0 2.7 3.6 3.9 4.3 5.6 5.4 0.1 0.8 5.2 6.8 -11.0 7.3 1.0 7.1 0.7 4.4 4.5 6.8 7.9 -0.4 7.8 5.4 8.8 7.8
Matter of Stats 27.2 2.7 3.0 3.7 3.3 3.3 5.7 5.5 -0.5 1.9 6.9 5.2 -8.1 5.8 4.3 5.2 1.8 5.0 4.9 7.0 6.5 -4.0 7.8 5.8 8.0 6.3
AFL Lab 25.8 1.7 2.6 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.8 4.8 -2.6 -0.3 6.8 2.8 -8.5 5.8 5.1 6.6 0.4 4.5 5.1 7.0 5.1 0.5 7.7 5.1 8.0 7.5
Graft 25.7 1.0 1.5 2.4 2.8 3.1 4.7 4.7 5.5 -3.3 1.1 6.0 6.8 -12.8 6.2 0.9 4.6 6.5 -3.1 2.0 7.2 7.9 -2.0 7.1 6.3 7.7 8.7
Glicko Ratings 24.8 2.2 2.4 3.4 3.5 3.9 5.0 4.5 -1.6 0.8 6.7 7.0 -9.1 7.2 0.3 3.3 2.1 6.8 5.1 6.0 6.5 -3.8 7.4 4.4 6.5 8.2
What Snoo Thinks 23.4 1.8 1.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 5.4 5.4 -4.1 -0.1 6.8 6.6 -9.8 6.9 -0.6 7.4 6.8 -0.2 1.5 4.0 6.8 -0.5 7.7 7.8 8.4 4.7
The Footycast 22.8 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.8 5.4 -6.0 0.4 7.7 3.4 -8.1 6.3 4.0 5.8 -1.0 4.8 3.8 7.4 7.6 -4.2 6.6 4.0 8.3 7.6
Ladder 22.3 -4.1 -0.1 1.5 3.8 4.4 6.7 10.0 7.5 -1.8 4.1 5.0 3.7 -0.5 -0.5 5.0 0.3 4.1 2.0 1.6 4.5 1.2 2.4 4.5 7.5 6.6
Don't Blame the Data 20.9 1.9 1.7 2.4 2.7 3.2 4.6 4.4 -4.0 -0.4 6.5 6.8 -13.6 5.3 -0.8 4.1 3.0 3.0 0.2 7.2 8.1 -1.7 7.5 6.1 8.9 7.6
Informed Stats 18.0 1.5 2.6 2.9 3.6 4.2 3.2 -5.8 2.1 7.5 5.3 -11.5 8.0 0.0 5.8 3.4 -1.4 1.7 5.6 8.8 -3.6 6.3 4.5 9.0 8.5
Elo Predicts! 2.1 -1.4 -1.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 -8.0 -5.6 5.5 4.8 -18.0 6.8 -1.6 -0.3 -4.7 -0.1 -1.6 7.0 7.7 -9.2 3.3 3.5 7.8 8.1

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.77643953 Informed Stats Richmond
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 18th 5
9.72155753 Graft Richmond
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 18th 5
9.64971247 Informed Stats Essendon
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 17th 3
9.61938165 Informed Stats Richmond
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 18th 3
9.61547382 Glicko Ratings Richmond
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 18th 5
9.60587941 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
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 12th 4
9.55654118 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
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 13th 4
9.50666379 ZaphBot Richmond
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 18th -1
9.48125882 The Footycast Richmond
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 18th 5
9.47604012 Informed Stats Essendon
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 17th 4
9.44897150 Don't Blame the Data Richmond
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 18th 5
9.44875615 ZaphBot Richmond
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 18th 5
9.44295497 Glicko Ratings Richmond
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 18th 4
9.44131118 Informed Stats Richmond
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 18th 4
9.43694103 Matter of Stats Richmond
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 18th 5
9.41555294 Informed Stats Essendon
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 17th 1
9.40549003 Squiggle Richmond
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 18th 5
9.29171176 Elo Predicts! Richmond
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 18th 5
9.28826471 Elo Predicts! Richmond
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 18th 3
9.27679865 Graft Richmond
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 18th 4
9.24566656 AFLalytics Richmond
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 18th 5
9.23104376 Stattraction Richmond
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 18th 5
9.22941338 Don't Blame the Data Essendon
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 17th 4
9.22625171 Stattraction Essendon
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 17th 4
9.21198185 Wheelo Ratings Richmond
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 18th 5
9.18242059 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 17th 3

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-21.8 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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18
 5th -1
-19.8 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-18.8 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-17.6 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 1
-17.6 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 3
-17.5 ZaphBot North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-16.4 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-16.3 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 0
-16.1 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-15.7 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 4
-15.4 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-15.3 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 14th -1
-15.2 Graft Sydney
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 1st -1
-15.1 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-15.0 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-14.7 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-14.7 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 3
-14.6 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 5
-14.6 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-14.3 Stattraction North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-13.9 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-13.8 Informed Stats North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-13.8 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-13.8 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-13.7 Live Ladders Sydney
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 1st -1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
52.6 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
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 14th 0
50.5 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 14th -1
43.7 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
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 9th -1
40.8 Informed Stats Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 0
40.4 Matter of Stats Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 3
40.4 Graft Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 0
39.1 Glicko Ratings Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 0
38.7 PlusSixOne Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 0
38.2 Matter of Stats Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 2
38.0 ZaphBot Greater Western Sydney
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 14th -1
37.6 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 1
36.5 Graft Adelaide
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 10th 1
35.1 Informed Stats Adelaide
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 10th 1
35.1 Graft Greater Western Sydney
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 14th -1
35.0 ZaphBot Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 0
34.9 Matter of Stats Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 0
34.7 The Footycast Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 1
34.7 The Footycast Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 2
34.6 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
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 9th 4
34.3 PlusSixOne Greater Western Sydney
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 14th -1
33.9 Glicko Ratings Greater Western Sydney
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 14th -1
33.8 The Footycast Greater Western Sydney
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 14th -1
33.8 The Footycast Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 0
33.3 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 4
33.1 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 3
33.0 Stattraction Greater Western Sydney
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 14th 0

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-63.6 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
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18
 5th -1
-59.7 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-57.7 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-55.2 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 1
-55.2 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 3
-54.9 ZaphBot North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-52.8 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-52.3 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-51.3 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 4
-50.9 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-50.5 Graft Sydney
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 1st -1
-50.2 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-49.9 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-49.5 Graft North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-49.4 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th 3
-49.2 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
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 5th 5
-49.2 Live Ladders North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-48.6 Stattraction North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-47.8 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-47.5 Informed Stats North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-47.5 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 5th 0
-47.5 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
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 5th -1
-47.4 Live Ladders Sydney
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 1st -1
-46.0 Stattraction North Melbourne
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 5th 2
-46.0 Informed Stats Sydney
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 1st 3