LEADERBOARD

After Round 12, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5

83 26.5978 26.60 26.2551 26.26 78.3019 78.3%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5

83 25.1812 25.18 25.4130 25.41 78.3019 78.3%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4

80 17.0668 17.07 26.5894 26.59 75.4717 75.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4

79 25.4998 25.50 26.5315 26.53 74.5283 74.5%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4

79 22.8113 22.81 27.0453 27.05 74.5283 74.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5

78 26.6294 26.63 26.1131 26.11 73.5849 73.6%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5

78 25.1322 25.13 26.7810 26.78 73.5849 73.6%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4

78 23.9539 23.95 27.4434 27.44 73.5849 73.6%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4

78 23.8927 23.89 26.5389 26.54 73.5849 73.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4

78 19.5827 19.58 27.0566 27.06 73.5849 73.6%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4

77 25.9371 25.94 26.9464 26.95 72.6415 72.6%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4

76 23.0176 23.02 27.3908 27.39 71.6981 71.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3

76 22.4366 22.44 26.8700 26.87 71.6981 71.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4

76 22.2041 22.20 28.3396 28.34 71.6981 71.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5

76 20.6030 20.60 28.1358 28.14 71.6981 71.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3

75 23.9172 23.92 27.6349 27.63 70.7547 70.8%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5

74 24.2611 24.26 27.5656 27.57 69.8113 69.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3

74 23.0813 23.08 27.0418 27.04 69.8113 69.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6

74 20.1728 20.17 27.1057 27.11 69.8113 69.8%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2

74 19.9864 19.99 27.6523 27.65 69.8113 69.8%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4

73 23.7852 23.79 26.4944 26.49 68.8679 68.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4

73 23.1776 23.18 27.0566 27.06 68.8679 68.9%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5

73 22.3368 22.34 27.5377 27.54 68.8679 68.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4

73 21.5570 21.56 27.2308 27.23 68.8679 68.9%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3

73 20.1080 20.11 26.9387 26.94 68.8679 68.9%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3

72 21.2435 21.24 29.0094 29.01 67.9245 67.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5

72 18.7401 18.74 27.5283 27.53 67.9245 67.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4

71 19.7774 19.78 27.4402 27.44 66.9811 67.0%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5

68 17.9571 17.96 27.7423 27.74 †9 70.1031 70.1%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3

68 16.8670 16.87 28.1604 28.16 64.1509 64.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4

57 18.4922 18.49 28.7469 28.75 †25 70.3704 70.4%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 91% 3.7 16.5 67% 0.8 33.5 67% 2.1 22.5 92% 4.0 23.4 83% 5.2 28.7 83% 4.2 15.8 75% 2.1 30.4 82% 3.0 26.4 75% 1.5 30.7 75% 3.2 25.6 58% -1.0 29.5 73% 2.8 24.4 73% 0.7 27.3 83% 5.5 27.1 83% 3.7 18.6 100% 6.5 36.3 67% 2.5 29.9 83% 2.8 25.2
Wheelo Ratings 91% 3.2 12.5 58% 1.0 31.9 67% 1.6 23.7 92% 3.7 22.2 83% 5.0 29.3 92% 5.0 14.1 75% 0.8 31.1 82% 3.4 25.2 75% 2.7 29.1 83% 2.3 24.4 58% -1.3 30.1 73% 3.2 22.7 64% -0.3 26.7 83% 5.4 26.8 92% 3.9 18.0 100% 6.1 34.7 67% 2.8 29.8 75% 1.8 23.8
Holy Grail Ratings 82% 1.9 15.1 58% 0.8 34.0 67% 1.1 21.3 92% 2.8 23.6 92% 3.3 30.8 67% 2.3 19.4 67% 1.2 28.7 91% 2.5 23.8 67% 1.0 33.8 75% 1.8 24.3 67% 0.7 27.0 73% 2.0 23.9 55% 0.1 29.0 83% 3.2 30.0 92% 2.2 21.6 100% 4.2 35.0 67% 2.4 31.2 67% 0.6 24.9
s10 82% 4.1 14.5 58% 1.2 33.7 58% 1.5 24.1 92% 3.9 21.8 83% 4.6 30.6 83% 4.3 15.3 67% 1.0 31.5 73% 3.0 25.6 58% 1.7 31.9 83% 2.7 25.3 50% -0.5 29.6 73% 3.3 23.4 73% 0.2 28.1 83% 5.9 26.9 92% 4.0 20.2 92% 5.8 37.0 67% 2.8 31.2 75% 1.5 25.8
Glicko Ratings 91% 3.9 15.0 58% 0.9 34.1 58% 1.9 24.0 83% 3.4 22.9 83% 3.5 31.5 83% 3.9 16.0 75% 0.9 32.6 82% 2.8 25.7 67% 1.8 30.8 75% 2.4 27.4 50% -1.0 29.5 73% 2.8 25.0 73% 0.4 29.2 83% 5.2 28.3 83% 3.8 19.5 92% 5.4 37.4 67% 2.5 31.3 67% 1.3 25.5
Punters 82% 3.7 14.4 58% 0.9 34.0 67% 2.2 23.3 83% 3.8 24.5 83% 5.0 32.5 92% 5.7 13.4 75% 1.4 29.1 82% 3.6 24.2 67% 1.9 31.9 83% 2.5 25.5 50% -1.0 30.6 64% 2.7 24.6 55% -0.3 27.9 83% 6.2 23.8 75% 3.4 19.5 100% 7.0 32.1 67% 2.7 31.7 58% 2.0 25.8
AFLalytics 82% 3.4 16.0 58% 1.4 33.2 58% 1.5 23.5 92% 3.2 23.4 83% 4.4 31.8 75% 3.4 18.1 75% 1.8 31.0 82% 3.2 25.0 75% 2.5 30.0 92% 3.0 26.4 50% 0.4 28.5 73% 3.8 20.4 55% 0.3 28.4 83% 5.2 28.9 75% 3.1 21.7 92% 5.4 38.2 67% 3.2 30.8 58% 1.1 25.4
ZaphBot 82% 4.4 13.5 67% 1.7 33.3 67% 1.3 27.0 92% 4.8 25.3 75% 4.2 29.7 83% 5.7 12.6 58% -0.4 32.8 73% 2.1 27.4 58% 0.2 36.2 83% 2.1 24.8 58% -0.3 29.7 64% 2.8 27.1 64% -1.1 30.4 83% 7.0 26.1 92% 4.9 20.8 100% 6.7 34.6 58% 1.9 33.2 67% 0.1 28.7
Aggregate 82% 3.6 14.5 50% 1.3 34.0 67% 1.6 23.8 92% 3.7 22.0 83% 4.4 30.3 75% 4.1 15.3 67% 0.9 30.4 73% 2.9 25.5 58% 1.3 33.3 83% 2.5 24.6 58% -0.1 28.7 73% 3.0 23.8 73% 0.1 28.7 83% 5.7 26.4 92% 3.7 20.6 83% 5.2 36.9 67% 2.8 31.6 67% 1.0 26.1
Cheap Stats 73% 2.4 18.3 58% 1.3 33.0 67% 1.8 20.6 92% 2.0 25.3 75% 3.0 33.6 83% 4.4 15.6 75% 1.4 31.1 73% 2.7 25.8 58% 0.7 34.9 83% 1.6 26.4 50% 0.2 26.7 73% 1.6 26.2 64% 1.0 27.6 75% 4.2 28.2 83% 2.5 21.4 92% 4.7 34.5 75% 2.6 32.5 75% 0.9 24.5
Don't Blame the Data 82% 4.5 15.2 50% 1.0 34.6 67% 1.6 24.8 92% 4.1 21.5 83% 5.3 30.8 67% 4.2 16.6 67% 0.9 30.2 73% 3.2 25.1 58% 1.5 32.5 75% 2.6 25.7 58% -0.7 29.2 73% 3.4 23.9 73% -0.1 29.5 83% 6.8 26.5 92% 4.8 20.4 83% 4.9 37.9 67% 2.5 32.1 67% 1.4 27.3
AFL Lab 73% 3.5 18.5 50% 0.9 35.7 58% 0.8 27.2 83% 3.6 20.5 83% 4.3 29.4 67% 2.1 20.9 67% 2.2 30.0 82% 3.7 23.2 58% 0.9 32.0 83% 3.4 23.4 67% 1.5 27.5 73% 2.9 24.1 73% 0.3 29.3 83% 5.2 28.3 83% 3.8 19.5 83% 4.1 39.8 67% 2.8 32.2 58% 0.0 30.4
What Snoo Thinks 82% 2.5 16.1 67% 0.7 34.8 75% 2.6 18.0 75% 2.9 24.1 83% 3.8 31.0 67% 3.3 19.1 58% 0.7 30.9 64% 2.4 26.7 58% 1.7 32.8 67% 1.5 27.3 58% -0.9 28.7 73% 3.5 22.0 64% 0.3 28.8 75% 4.7 30.2 92% 3.9 20.4 92% 5.6 36.6 67% 4.0 30.7 75% 1.8 24.4
The Wooden Finger 91% 3.9 16.6 50% 0.6 36.3 67% 1.9 26.5 100% 4.7 23.2 83% 4.6 30.7 75% 3.5 16.4 58% -0.4 33.1 64% 3.4 25.3 58% -0.1 36.7 75% 2.2 26.9 58% -0.4 29.8 73% 3.4 25.7 73% -0.3 33.0 83% 6.2 23.2 92% 4.3 19.8 75% 4.2 40.6 67% 2.8 34.3 50% 0.0 30.9
The Cruncher 82% 4.5 17.7 58% 0.6 35.0 58% 0.8 25.3 83% 3.4 24.0 83% 4.1 31.9 83% 3.8 16.9 58% -0.6 34.2 64% 2.2 28.4 67% 1.4 31.2 75% 1.6 27.8 50% -1.9 30.7 73% 2.8 23.6 73% 0.6 30.6 83% 5.5 27.9 83% 3.7 21.8 83% 5.2 38.3 67% 2.1 32.6 67% 1.5 27.7
Matter of Stats 82% 4.2 16.5 58% 1.4 34.0 67% 1.4 22.5 92% 4.0 22.8 75% 3.8 35.4 75% 3.7 15.2 67% 0.7 32.8 82% 3.4 24.2 58% 0.1 35.7 75% 3.3 25.9 50% -1.1 30.4 64% 2.7 28.3 45% -0.3 29.8 83% 6.1 22.4 83% 4.2 21.5 100% 5.8 38.1 58% 2.8 33.3 58% 1.7 27.9
In The Game 82% 4.4 18.4 58% 0.6 34.4 50% 1.3 23.6 92% 4.2 24.2 83% 5.1 31.9 75% 4.5 14.5 58% 0.6 33.7 73% 3.2 25.2 75% 1.1 33.9 67% 2.7 23.2 42% -1.9 32.8 64% 3.5 26.3 45% -1.9 30.7 83% 6.9 23.1 75% 4.1 22.7 100% 8.4 31.7 67% -0.0 37.9 67% 1.9 27.2
footycharts 73% 3.1 15.3 50% 1.0 34.4 67% 2.0 23.0 83% 3.5 23.7 83% 4.1 30.8 75% 4.4 16.1 75% 1.7 29.9 82% 3.3 25.8 58% 1.8 31.4 75% 2.7 26.0 50% 0.2 28.7 82% 3.8 20.5 55% -0.9 29.6 83% 4.6 29.2 83% 3.3 21.8 83% 5.1 37.8 75% 2.9 33.0 25% -0.4 28.4
PlusSixOne 73% 2.8 14.8 67% 0.9 35.1 58% 1.0 24.7 83% 3.6 24.1 83% 4.5 25.8 92% 5.0 11.9 58% 0.2 30.6 55% 2.2 27.2 58% 0.2 35.0 75% 2.4 23.7 58% 0.6 27.6 64% 2.5 21.8 55% -0.0 29.0 83% 5.1 28.3 83% 3.4 22.9 83% 4.8 37.8 67% 2.1 35.2 58% -0.8 31.0
AFL Scorigami 82% 4.1 16.8 50% 0.2 33.5 83% 1.7 20.9 83% 2.2 24.2 67% 3.4 33.1 75% 4.1 18.1 58% 0.5 34.0 55% 2.9 25.9 67% -1.0 34.3 75% 2.9 25.0 58% -0.1 29.1 73% 2.8 23.0 64% 0.3 26.5 83% 5.7 28.4 83% 3.2 23.9 83% 4.0 39.2 58% 1.7 33.8 58% 1.5 26.5
Winnable 73% 3.5 15.1 58% 0.3 33.2 42% 0.0 24.2 75% 3.4 23.0 83% 4.7 30.4 83% 4.1 16.1 67% 1.4 29.9 73% 3.1 27.1 58% 2.6 30.0 83% 2.8 23.7 42% -1.2 30.5 73% 4.5 18.5 55% 0.7 25.7 83% 4.9 31.7 58% 2.9 22.5 100% 5.5 38.2 67% 3.4 30.6 67% 1.0 25.0
Live Ladders 73% 2.8 17.6 42% 1.6 32.8 58% 1.8 20.2 83% 3.3 21.2 83% 4.2 31.2 67% 3.2 19.4 67% 2.3 27.9 73% 2.8 27.3 67% 2.1 33.0 75% 2.7 25.3 67% 1.0 26.2 82% 3.2 22.6 55% -0.1 29.1 83% 4.5 32.6 67% 2.8 23.2 83% 4.6 37.2 75% 3.4 32.3 42% 0.2 26.7
Informed Stats 73% 3.5 17.0 58% 1.0 36.4 58% 2.5 25.4 75% 3.1 23.2 83% 4.8 28.4 83% 4.9 10.3 58% -1.1 32.8 64% 2.0 28.7 67% 1.0 35.8 75% 2.7 26.0 50% -1.9 30.2 73% 2.9 26.6 64% -0.4 29.5 83% 7.2 24.0 83% 3.9 22.8 75% 4.3 38.9 67% 3.4 32.2 50% 0.9 26.6
Stattraction 82% 3.7 14.5 50% 1.0 34.9 67% 1.2 26.0 92% 4.4 20.8 83% 4.0 31.4 75% 3.7 15.4 58% -0.1 30.3 64% 2.8 26.6 58% 0.6 34.3 67% 1.6 26.0 58% -0.1 28.3 64% 2.6 25.7 55% 0.5 29.0 83% 5.9 24.7 83% 4.3 20.7 75% 3.9 39.0 67% 3.1 32.0 58% 0.0 29.2
HBin 82% 3.8 17.2 67% 2.2 32.1 58% 0.9 25.3 83% 3.6 20.5 83% 3.1 33.0 75% 3.5 16.2 58% 0.3 29.8 64% 2.6 26.9 67% 0.7 34.3 75% 2.5 24.2 42% -2.1 29.5 64% 2.8 23.2 55% -1.1 30.6 83% 6.7 25.9 92% 4.3 19.9 83% 5.0 36.2 67% 1.2 33.5 42% 0.3 25.9
Graft 73% 2.7 21.5 50% 1.7 35.2 67% 1.7 29.7 83% 3.7 24.5 83% 3.7 33.4 75% 3.5 14.9 50% 0.6 33.0 64% 2.5 27.7 67% 1.4 33.2 75% 1.8 26.6 58% 0.8 29.5 73% 2.7 24.5 64% -0.4 33.8 83% 5.4 23.8 83% 3.0 25.4 75% 4.2 38.2 67% 3.2 35.6 33% -0.0 31.0
The Footycast 73% 2.9 15.6 58% 1.1 33.9 67% 1.5 24.7 75% 3.2 24.6 83% 3.5 28.9 83% 3.7 16.3 58% 0.8 32.5 64% 1.9 27.4 50% 0.1 35.0 75% 1.9 25.7 58% 0.6 27.1 73% 2.1 23.1 55% -0.6 28.5 83% 5.1 28.1 83% 3.0 23.1 75% 4.0 39.5 67% 2.3 32.3 42% 0.4 28.1
Squiggle 82% 2.5 14.5 58% 1.8 32.2 42% 0.3 26.4 83% 3.1 23.4 83% 3.2 31.7 75% 3.4 17.5 50% 0.6 31.3 73% 1.9 28.3 58% 2.0 28.7 75% 1.6 27.6 42% -0.7 31.1 73% 3.1 23.4 55% -0.0 27.7 83% 5.0 28.6 67% 3.1 20.6 92% 5.4 38.5 67% 3.4 33.0 50% -0.1 28.1
Hyperion 78% 3.2 16.9 55% 0.5 33.9 60% 0.3 31.8 82% 3.1 20.8 82% 4.4 29.4 82% 5.4 12.6 64% 0.2 33.4 80% 3.6 23.2 67% -0.4 38.1 91% 3.1 24.1 45% 0.2 28.8 70% 2.1 27.1 50% -0.8 33.3 82% 6.1 24.8 75% 2.6 23.2 82% 3.5 32.6 64% 0.8 27.5 55% -1.8 35.8
Elo Predicts! 73% 3.3 16.6 50% 0.4 34.8 58% 0.3 26.0 75% 3.3 23.2 67% 4.1 28.0 67% 3.2 14.7 50% -0.1 30.3 64% 2.2 30.5 75% 0.4 37.5 75% 1.6 23.8 58% 0.1 27.5 55% 1.7 31.5 55% -1.0 30.2 83% 5.6 27.2 83% 3.4 21.3 75% 3.7 38.8 58% 2.3 34.4 33% -0.8 30.2
Massey Ratings 86% 3.2 19.4 40% 0.3 36.3 67% 0.9 30.1 90% 3.2 19.8 78% 3.2 32.2 78% 3.2 14.8 60% 0.4 36.0 75% 1.6 27.1 60% 0.5 36.9 70% 2.0 28.0 50% 0.2 31.0 75% 3.2 29.1 50% 0.0 27.6 78% 5.1 24.7 89% 3.6 25.3 90% 4.1 34.5 75% 2.5 30.1 60% -0.1 30.3