LEADERBOARD

After Round 6, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8

44 14.3449 14.34 24.0807 24.08 81.4815 81.5%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8

43 14.4931 14.49 25.8231 25.82 79.6296 79.6%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8

43 9.2793 9.28 25.3385 25.34 79.6296 79.6%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8

42 13.9280 13.93 25.5363 25.54 77.7778 77.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8

41 14.9000 14.90 26.4213 26.42 75.9259 75.9%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8

41 14.4802 14.48 25.4369 25.44 75.9259 75.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8

41 14.2988 14.30 25.3072 25.31 75.9259 75.9%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8

41 12.8678 12.87 25.5978 25.60 75.9259 75.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7

40 15.2786 15.28 25.6698 25.67 74.0741 74.1%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8

40 14.0017 14.00 24.8794 24.88 74.0741 74.1%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8

40 12.7624 12.76 26.5663 26.57 74.0741 74.1%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8

40 12.6619 12.66 26.1941 26.19 74.0741 74.1%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7

40 12.6168 12.62 27.2778 27.28 74.0741 74.1%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8

40 11.6430 11.64 25.5009 25.50 74.0741 74.1%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7

39 12.7098 12.71 25.8081 25.81 72.2222 72.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8

39 12.1364 12.14 26.6111 26.61 72.2222 72.2%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7

39 11.8200 11.82 27.6852 27.69 72.2222 72.2%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8

39 9.9169 9.92 26.5037 26.50 72.2222 72.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8

39 8.3009 8.30 27.5741 27.57 72.2222 72.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8

38 13.7440 13.74 26.7539 26.75 70.3704 70.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8

37 12.8972 12.90 26.1272 26.13 68.5185 68.5%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8

37 12.2020 12.20 27.9630 27.96 68.5185 68.5%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7

36 12.0332 12.03 26.2878 26.29 66.6667 66.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8

36 11.3453 11.35 27.2548 27.25 66.6667 66.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7

36 11.2074 11.21 29.2222 29.22 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7

36 10.9174 10.92 26.0180 26.02 66.6667 66.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8

36 9.9036 9.90 26.9352 26.94 66.6667 66.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8

36 8.7125 8.71 27.3148 27.31 66.6667 66.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7

32 8.2903 8.29 27.8148 27.81 59.2593 59.3%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8

30 5.8460 5.85 27.5778 27.58 †9 66.6667 66.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8

19 6.8481 6.85 30.2931 30.29 †25 65.5172 65.5%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Wheelo Ratings 83% 1.0 8.8 67% -0.3 26.4 83% 1.9 16.5 83% 1.2 13.7 83% 2.3 33.2 100% 3.2 9.5 100% 2.5 25.7 83% 2.0 33.3 83% 2.2 23.9 83% 2.1 21.2 33% -3.0 34.9 67% 1.9 23.9 83% 1.2 28.4 100% 3.8 26.4 83% 0.4 10.8 100% 2.7 37.2 67% 2.0 27.9 83% 1.7 31.8
Drop Kick Data 83% 1.1 13.2 67% -0.2 28.4 83% 1.9 16.3 83% 0.9 17.7 83% 2.0 34.4 100% 3.3 10.3 100% 2.8 29.2 83% 2.0 33.8 67% 1.9 26.2 83% 2.6 23.4 33% -3.1 34.6 67% 1.6 26.4 83% 1.5 29.9 100% 3.5 28.1 67% 0.4 10.2 100% 2.8 38.3 67% 1.8 29.6 83% 2.1 34.8
Holy Grail Ratings 67% 0.5 10.2 67% 0.4 22.8 83% 0.9 15.6 83% 1.1 17.2 83% 1.3 33.4 83% 1.8 18.1 83% 1.4 25.2 100% 1.8 29.5 83% 1.1 28.3 83% 1.3 22.1 67% -0.3 25.9 67% 0.8 25.6 67% 0.5 32.8 83% 1.3 37.8 83% 0.5 13.1 100% 1.6 37.4 67% 1.6 30.4 83% 0.9 30.5
Glicko Ratings 83% 1.2 12.0 67% -0.2 28.2 67% 1.6 20.9 83% 1.2 15.1 83% 2.0 30.6 100% 3.0 10.5 100% 2.5 28.8 83% 1.7 31.2 67% 1.9 24.0 83% 2.3 24.9 17% -2.5 33.5 67% 1.2 26.7 83% 1.0 33.5 100% 3.9 26.8 67% 0.8 10.4 100% 2.5 40.7 67% 2.2 28.8 83% 1.5 33.2
Don't Blame the Data 67% 1.2 10.7 50% -0.0 27.1 83% 2.1 20.7 83% 1.5 18.1 83% 2.2 34.5 83% 2.9 14.4 83% 2.6 27.6 67% 1.9 32.4 67% 1.7 26.5 83% 2.5 23.6 50% -2.3 30.3 67% 1.2 26.3 83% 0.7 33.1 100% 4.4 28.6 83% 1.4 13.4 83% 2.0 44.3 67% 1.8 31.2 83% 2.0 32.8
s10 67% 1.4 11.0 67% 0.1 26.1 67% 1.7 19.1 83% 1.4 14.3 83% 2.2 32.4 83% 2.9 12.0 83% 2.3 27.9 67% 1.9 32.7 67% 1.8 26.1 83% 2.3 23.7 33% -2.2 32.3 67% 1.4 24.0 83% 0.9 32.2 100% 3.9 28.3 83% 0.7 12.5 100% 2.4 40.3 67% 2.1 28.9 83% 1.7 34.0
AFLalytics 67% 0.8 13.2 67% 0.5 23.8 67% 1.5 18.1 83% 0.9 14.7 83% 2.3 31.0 83% 2.7 13.5 100% 2.7 27.1 83% 2.0 32.0 83% 1.8 25.6 100% 2.6 25.0 17% -1.3 29.5 67% 1.8 20.9 67% 0.8 33.1 100% 3.4 30.3 50% 0.0 16.2 100% 2.3 41.7 67% 2.1 28.9 83% 1.6 30.9
Aggregate 67% 1.1 10.5 50% 0.2 25.5 83% 1.7 18.5 83% 1.3 15.1 83% 2.0 31.9 83% 2.6 13.3 83% 2.0 25.9 67% 1.9 32.3 67% 1.4 28.8 83% 2.1 22.7 50% -1.7 31.0 67% 1.2 25.0 83% 0.6 33.2 100% 3.6 29.0 83% 0.7 13.5 83% 2.0 41.2 67% 1.9 29.4 83% 1.2 34.0
Matter of Stats 67% 2.0 10.8 67% 0.3 24.1 83% 1.8 16.9 83% 1.7 14.8 83% 2.2 36.2 83% 2.4 13.8 83% 2.1 28.3 83% 2.2 30.2 67% 1.8 26.6 83% 2.6 25.3 50% -1.4 29.7 50% 0.9 25.2 50% 0.8 34.3 100% 4.2 21.5 67% 1.0 12.6 100% 2.0 42.4 67% 2.3 30.2 67% 1.9 39.1
Punters 67% 1.4 10.4 67% 0.0 25.0 83% 2.1 16.8 67% 1.2 15.5 83% 2.3 36.7 100% 3.3 10.2 100% 2.8 21.5 83% 2.3 30.6 67% 1.8 25.6 83% 2.1 23.2 33% -2.8 35.4 50% 1.1 26.2 67% 0.5 31.7 100% 4.2 24.1 50% -0.2 14.8 100% 3.2 33.8 67% 1.7 29.5 67% 1.2 36.9
AFL Lab 50% 0.5 17.3 50% 0.2 28.0 83% 1.2 22.4 67% 0.9 13.2 83% 1.8 32.7 67% 1.8 17.9 83% 2.4 30.5 83% 2.3 31.0 67% 1.6 27.0 83% 2.3 21.5 67% -0.6 24.6 67% 0.9 29.1 83% 0.9 32.1 100% 3.2 30.5 83% 0.9 11.6 83% 1.6 44.5 67% 2.3 31.2 67% 1.3 33.3
footycharts 50% 0.6 12.6 50% 0.1 24.9 83% 1.8 17.0 83% 1.5 15.4 83% 2.1 30.1 83% 2.6 14.6 100% 2.4 26.0 83% 2.2 32.5 67% 1.6 29.0 67% 2.2 25.0 50% -1.0 27.4 83% 1.8 21.2 67% -0.0 35.4 100% 3.1 32.5 67% 0.3 16.4 83% 1.8 43.8 83% 1.5 32.5 50% 0.8 34.9
ZaphBot 67% 1.8 11.2 67% -0.0 25.2 83% 2.3 22.3 83% 2.3 22.2 83% 1.6 32.0 83% 3.1 15.0 67% 1.2 30.8 67% 1.4 35.5 67% 0.9 30.3 83% 1.7 24.3 50% -2.0 30.7 50% 0.6 28.7 67% -0.3 34.5 100% 4.3 28.0 83% 1.3 18.2 100% 2.9 34.2 67% 1.6 31.0 67% 0.6 37.0
What Snoo Thinks 67% 0.1 10.6 83% -0.3 26.3 83% 2.0 11.8 83% 1.2 15.9 83% 1.6 30.4 83% 2.0 18.7 83% 2.0 26.7 50% 1.3 35.3 67% 1.6 28.8 67% 2.1 24.5 50% -1.6 28.4 67% 1.8 20.5 67% 0.5 33.4 83% 2.3 34.1 83% 0.5 12.4 83% 2.0 41.5 67% 2.5 29.1 83% 1.7 30.6
AFL Scorigami 67% 1.3 10.7 50% -0.1 21.4 100% 1.4 18.7 83% 0.6 17.8 67% 2.2 31.0 83% 2.6 19.0 67% 1.9 31.2 50% 2.0 30.9 83% 1.1 29.8 83% 2.4 20.2 50% -0.8 28.8 67% 0.9 23.0 83% 1.0 27.7 100% 3.8 28.4 83% 1.1 11.0 67% 0.8 46.3 67% 1.6 32.5 50% 1.5 36.2
Live Ladders 50% 0.6 11.8 33% 0.2 24.8 83% 1.7 16.5 83% 1.3 16.0 83% 1.9 29.8 83% 2.3 19.0 83% 2.2 25.2 67% 1.6 35.3 67% 1.3 31.5 83% 2.3 23.3 50% -0.5 26.3 83% 1.4 22.8 67% 0.7 33.3 100% 2.4 37.0 50% 0.2 15.0 83% 1.7 44.2 83% 2.1 33.7 67% 0.8 33.3
The Wooden Finger 83% 1.1 13.0 50% -0.0 27.0 83% 2.3 19.5 100% 2.2 15.2 83% 1.8 35.3 83% 2.4 12.8 67% 1.5 28.8 50% 2.1 34.3 67% 0.6 31.5 67% 2.0 25.7 50% -1.8 29.2 67% 1.3 27.8 83% 0.0 38.2 100% 3.5 27.3 83% 1.0 15.0 67% 1.1 47.0 67% 1.6 32.0 50% 1.0 38.7
HBin 67% 1.3 11.6 83% 1.5 19.4 67% 1.2 22.7 83% 1.3 14.9 83% 0.6 34.3 83% 2.1 14.4 67% 1.7 25.4 50% 1.1 36.3 83% 1.6 29.5 67% 1.5 25.0 33% -3.9 33.0 50% 0.9 25.3 67% -0.7 36.5 100% 4.3 29.4 83% 1.0 12.1 83% 1.8 43.1 67% 0.8 32.8 83% 1.5 31.1
Cheap Stats 50% 0.4 15.7 67% 0.2 23.7 83% 1.1 15.2 83% 0.2 22.2 67% 0.9 37.8 83% 2.4 18.8 100% 2.2 25.7 67% 1.6 34.5 67% 0.5 33.0 83% 1.1 25.3 33% -1.3 31.2 67% 0.2 26.8 67% 1.0 31.2 83% 2.1 32.2 67% -0.2 17.5 83% 1.9 37.5 83% 1.8 33.3 67% 0.4 34.8
The Cruncher 67% 1.5 15.2 67% 0.1 26.4 67% 1.7 19.0 83% 1.1 15.8 83% 2.1 33.8 83% 2.9 12.1 83% 2.4 28.3 50% 1.5 34.6 67% 1.7 26.6 67% 2.2 26.9 17% -3.2 34.7 67% 1.5 25.4 83% 0.9 34.1 100% 3.9 28.8 67% 0.6 14.7 83% 2.3 43.1 67% 2.2 28.3 67% 2.2 33.8
In The Game 67% 1.5 16.0 67% -1.0 30.2 67% 1.9 16.9 83% 1.3 14.5 83% 2.2 36.0 83% 2.6 12.6 67% 2.7 33.0 67% 2.6 29.9 83% 2.3 24.6 67% 2.3 18.7 0% -5.1 39.6 50% 1.2 28.8 50% -0.1 30.9 100% 4.8 19.7 67% 0.9 15.8 100% 3.8 30.8 67% 0.9 35.2 67% 1.0 37.1
Informed Stats 50% 1.1 14.5 50% -0.4 31.8 67% 1.9 23.7 83% 1.5 18.5 83% 1.9 32.8 83% 2.8 6.5 83% 1.6 25.7 50% 1.6 35.3 67% 0.8 32.2 83% 2.7 25.0 33% -3.0 36.0 67% 1.1 30.2 67% 1.1 32.3 100% 4.2 25.2 67% 1.1 17.3 67% 1.6 47.5 67% 1.6 34.3 67% 1.2 34.5
Winnable 50% 0.9 11.2 67% -0.6 27.3 50% 0.5 24.0 50% 0.7 17.2 83% 2.2 32.3 83% 2.7 14.9 83% 2.2 26.1 67% 1.6 36.7 67% 2.3 25.3 83% 2.1 22.3 17% -2.9 34.5 67% 2.3 18.9 67% 1.3 26.6 100% 3.3 34.9 33% 0.1 15.8 100% 2.1 42.3 67% 2.3 30.4 67% 1.0 32.7
Stattraction 67% 1.2 10.4 50% 0.3 25.6 83% 2.0 20.8 83% 1.9 17.2 83% 1.6 36.9 83% 2.2 13.9 67% 1.4 25.3 50% 1.9 34.6 67% 1.1 30.0 50% 0.9 27.4 50% -1.7 31.1 50% 0.7 28.1 50% 0.4 34.3 100% 3.5 29.9 67% 1.3 14.0 67% 1.0 46.2 67% 2.1 28.8 67% 1.0 36.2
Graft 50% 0.6 21.7 50% 0.6 25.3 83% 2.0 25.2 83% 1.7 18.7 83% 2.0 35.8 83% 1.9 13.3 50% 1.3 32.5 50% 1.7 36.3 83% 1.1 27.3 67% 1.6 27.5 50% -0.7 28.2 67% 0.9 26.7 67% 0.1 39.0 100% 3.2 25.2 67% 0.4 25.3 67% 1.3 45.5 67% 2.0 32.8 33% 0.8 39.7
Squiggle 67% 0.5 8.8 67% 0.5 23.7 50% 1.0 21.6 83% 1.3 12.3 83% 1.9 31.2 83% 2.3 13.9 67% 1.1 28.9 67% 1.1 35.8 67% 1.9 25.6 67% 1.4 27.1 17% -2.3 33.8 67% 1.5 23.5 67% 0.8 31.4 100% 3.5 30.1 50% 0.5 11.4 83% 1.7 42.1 67% 2.2 32.6 50% 0.9 34.4
The Footycast 50% 1.0 11.8 50% -0.1 24.5 83% 1.5 20.5 67% 1.4 19.0 83% 1.8 26.6 83% 2.2 15.5 83% 1.5 29.1 50% 1.3 32.7 50% 0.4 34.6 67% 1.9 22.1 50% -0.7 27.5 67% 0.6 25.5 67% -0.1 33.4 100% 3.2 30.6 67% 0.8 15.4 67% 1.3 46.2 67% 1.1 33.8 50% 0.5 36.1
PlusSixOne 50% 0.3 11.8 67% -0.0 25.1 67% 1.7 16.9 83% 1.3 19.8 83% 1.7 28.1 83% 2.3 11.6 83% 1.4 25.2 50% 1.1 35.4 67% 0.6 35.6 67% 1.5 24.7 33% -0.9 28.1 50% 0.8 25.4 50% -0.3 34.8 100% 2.9 32.3 67% 0.1 18.5 83% 1.9 43.3 67% 1.2 36.4 50% -0.1 38.8
Elo Predicts! 50% 0.7 11.3 50% -0.2 27.8 67% 1.4 25.0 67% 1.3 20.0 67% 1.8 30.2 67% 2.0 17.0 50% 1.4 26.8 50% 1.8 32.5 83% 0.5 31.5 67% 1.6 21.3 33% -1.5 34.0 33% -0.2 36.2 50% -0.8 33.8 100% 3.4 29.7 67% 0.3 11.8 67% 1.0 46.3 67% 1.6 27.7 33% 0.3 37.7
Hyperion 50% 0.5 13.8 40% -1.1 23.8 75% 1.2 28.0 60% 0.6 14.8 80% 1.3 34.2 80% 2.7 11.8 80% 1.5 29.6 80% 2.5 30.0 83% -0.3 35.7 100% 2.2 26.2 20% -1.6 31.6 60% 0.2 30.4 40% -1.1 39.4 100% 3.7 26.2 50% -0.7 19.7 80% 1.0 32.2 60% 0.3 19.0 60% -1.1 47.4
Massey Ratings 50% 0.3 19.5 25% -0.7 25.0 100% 1.3 29.2 75% 0.4 9.0 67% 0.5 41.5 100% 1.3 10.8 75% 1.2 40.2 67% 0.9 37.2 75% 1.7 31.8 50% 1.4 33.2 0% -1.6 43.0 67% 1.2 37.5 33% 0.5 34.2 100% 2.1 31.8 67% 0.7 12.8 75% 0.8 37.2 100% 1.7 13.0 50% 0.0 48.8