LEADERBOARD

After Round 18, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8

117 38.0188 38.02 25.1787 25.18 76.4706 76.5%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9

116 25.8910 25.89 25.3569 25.36 75.8170 75.8%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8

115 36.5666 36.57 24.8922 24.89 75.1634 75.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8

114 38.5049 38.50 25.9869 25.99 74.5098 74.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8

113 38.3431 38.34 25.4618 25.46 73.8562 73.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9

113 37.4121 37.41 25.5718 25.57 73.8562 73.9%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8

112 38.8806 38.88 25.3181 25.32 73.2026 73.2%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8

112 36.3565 36.36 25.4469 25.45 73.2026 73.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8

112 33.3398 33.34 26.0987 26.10 73.2026 73.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8

111 39.3013 39.30 25.8742 25.87 72.5490 72.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8

111 33.9032 33.90 25.8758 25.88 72.5490 72.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8

110 36.7770 36.78 26.8301 26.83 71.8954 71.9%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8

110 35.8904 35.89 26.1690 26.17 71.8954 71.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8

109 36.8807 36.88 26.2243 26.22 71.2418 71.2%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8

109 36.2908 36.29 25.3296 25.33 71.2418 71.2%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8

109 35.3185 35.32 26.3333 26.33 71.2418 71.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8

109 32.2549 32.25 27.1909 27.19 †1 71.7105 71.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7

109 32.1338 32.13 25.8301 25.83 71.2418 71.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8

109 27.5391 27.54 26.5000 26.50 †1 71.7105 71.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8

108 36.2116 36.21 25.5390 25.54 70.5882 70.6%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8

108 34.5401 34.54 25.7815 25.78 70.5882 70.6%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8

107 28.7281 28.73 26.0340 26.03 69.9346 69.9%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8

106 32.2936 32.29 25.8091 25.81 69.2810 69.3%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7

105 34.5501 34.55 27.0865 27.09 68.6275 68.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8

105 34.5260 34.53 25.9085 25.91 68.6275 68.6%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8

104 33.0113 33.01 27.2288 27.23 67.9739 68.0%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8

104 31.5583 31.56 26.1173 26.12 67.9739 68.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7

104 28.6721 28.67 26.9682 26.97 67.9739 68.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8

103 29.4585 29.46 27.3660 27.37 67.3203 67.3%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9

102 30.2129 30.21 26.6042 26.60 †9 70.8333 70.8%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8

91 32.1912 32.19 26.9375 26.94 †25 71.0938 71.1%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 76% 2.9 22.5 65% 1.9 32.4 71% 3.4 26.6 82% 5.5 19.5 88% 8.8 27.0 82% 5.0 23.2 65% 1.9 26.4 76% 5.0 25.8 65% -0.5 28.3 71% 3.3 25.6 59% 0.5 25.5 82% 5.6 23.7 76% 1.8 22.5 88% 9.3 22.1 82% 5.1 19.4 100% 8.7 32.3 76% 5.1 23.8 71% 2.5 26.6
Holy Grail Ratings 71% 2.1 21.0 59% 1.9 33.0 71% 2.5 25.2 88% 3.5 18.9 94% 5.5 28.9 71% 3.0 25.2 65% 1.6 24.0 88% 3.8 24.0 65% 1.1 28.7 71% 1.6 26.3 71% 1.3 25.1 82% 3.1 23.1 65% 1.1 23.0 88% 5.5 25.4 88% 3.5 21.2 94% 5.6 32.6 76% 3.9 25.2 59% 0.9 26.0
Wheelo Ratings 76% 3.4 19.0 53% 1.6 32.5 71% 3.2 26.4 82% 5.0 18.9 88% 8.3 27.4 88% 5.9 22.0 65% 0.4 28.0 76% 4.8 25.7 59% 0.7 28.0 76% 2.5 24.9 59% 0.4 25.8 82% 6.1 23.1 71% 0.5 22.9 88% 9.1 22.3 82% 5.0 19.6 94% 8.1 31.5 76% 6.0 24.9 65% 2.2 25.2
ZaphBot 71% 4.8 19.5 65% 2.9 32.9 71% 3.6 28.9 88% 6.8 21.5 82% 7.9 28.4 82% 7.1 19.5 53% -0.2 28.8 76% 4.9 24.5 53% -1.2 32.1 76% 1.6 25.6 59% 0.7 26.6 76% 5.9 25.5 71% -0.5 24.9 88% 11.0 22.1 94% 6.9 20.1 100% 9.2 30.5 71% 5.0 27.6 65% 0.6 28.8
s10 71% 4.3 20.0 59% 2.2 33.1 65% 3.2 26.7 82% 5.6 18.7 88% 7.9 28.3 82% 5.5 22.4 59% 1.0 27.4 71% 4.7 25.9 53% 0.4 29.2 76% 2.5 26.1 53% 0.7 25.6 82% 6.3 23.7 76% 1.5 22.8 88% 9.8 22.4 88% 5.5 20.6 94% 8.0 33.2 76% 5.8 25.4 65% 1.8 26.9
AFLalytics 71% 3.7 20.7 59% 1.7 33.3 65% 3.1 25.8 82% 4.7 19.7 88% 7.4 29.4 76% 5.0 24.3 71% 1.9 27.2 76% 4.2 26.1 71% 1.6 27.4 82% 2.9 27.0 53% 1.8 24.9 82% 6.5 21.7 65% 1.5 22.2 88% 8.9 23.5 76% 4.9 21.5 94% 7.5 34.0 76% 6.0 24.9 53% 1.6 26.7
Punters 71% 3.9 20.5 59% 1.7 33.6 71% 3.6 27.0 76% 5.1 20.6 88% 8.5 29.4 88% 7.1 21.1 65% 1.4 26.3 76% 4.8 25.7 59% 0.4 29.5 76% 2.5 26.3 53% 0.6 26.2 76% 5.7 23.7 65% 0.4 23.3 88% 10.1 20.1 76% 5.0 19.7 100% 9.0 30.0 76% 5.6 25.8 53% 2.5 26.9
Aggregate 71% 4.0 19.9 53% 2.2 33.5 71% 3.4 26.5 82% 5.2 18.7 88% 7.5 28.4 76% 5.3 22.0 59% 0.8 26.7 71% 4.6 25.8 53% 0.2 30.1 76% 2.3 25.6 59% 1.1 25.3 82% 5.7 23.4 76% 1.3 23.4 88% 9.4 22.1 88% 5.3 20.8 88% 7.3 33.6 76% 5.5 25.5 59% 1.5 26.7
Glicko Ratings 76% 3.2 21.5 59% 1.7 33.6 65% 3.5 26.7 76% 5.2 19.0 88% 6.4 29.4 82% 5.0 22.8 65% 0.7 28.2 76% 3.8 27.1 53% 0.5 28.3 71% 1.8 28.1 53% 0.3 25.4 82% 5.5 25.5 76% 1.2 23.8 88% 9.0 23.5 76% 4.9 20.6 94% 7.6 33.3 76% 5.3 25.3 59% 1.0 27.5
Don't Blame the Data 71% 4.8 20.5 53% 2.6 33.0 71% 3.5 26.6 82% 5.6 19.5 88% 8.8 27.8 71% 5.2 23.7 59% 0.6 26.4 71% 5.1 26.0 53% 0.4 29.3 71% 1.5 27.3 59% -0.5 26.2 82% 7.0 25.0 76% 1.7 23.1 88% 10.9 22.5 88% 6.6 20.4 88% 7.4 33.3 76% 6.0 26.8 59% 1.3 28.3
What Snoo Thinks 76% 2.9 21.1 59% 0.7 35.8 76% 5.1 22.3 71% 4.4 19.5 88% 7.2 30.2 71% 4.3 25.5 53% -0.5 28.1 65% 3.9 27.6 53% 1.1 29.0 65% 0.8 27.8 59% -0.1 25.7 82% 5.9 22.0 71% 1.6 23.4 82% 8.5 24.6 94% 5.8 19.9 88% 7.3 33.6 76% 6.6 24.4 76% 2.2 25.1
The Wooden Finger 76% 4.2 21.6 53% 1.9 35.2 71% 4.2 28.4 88% 6.3 19.6 88% 8.0 27.9 76% 5.0 21.8 53% -0.6 28.8 71% 5.5 24.4 53% -0.8 32.2 71% 1.8 28.1 59% 0.6 26.2 82% 6.5 24.6 76% 1.4 27.6 88% 10.1 20.8 88% 6.3 19.8 76% 6.7 37.6 76% 5.9 27.8 47% 0.6 30.4
AFL Lab 65% 4.2 22.6 53% 2.2 33.8 65% 3.0 28.8 76% 4.8 19.1 88% 7.5 27.4 71% 2.8 26.3 59% 2.1 25.6 76% 5.3 23.9 53% 0.2 28.9 76% 3.2 25.6 65% 2.6 24.8 82% 5.6 24.5 76% 2.0 22.8 88% 9.0 24.4 82% 5.4 21.0 88% 6.4 35.1 76% 5.2 26.3 53% 0.1 30.2
Matter of Stats 71% 4.5 21.3 59% 2.4 32.9 71% 3.3 25.8 82% 5.5 19.0 82% 7.2 31.0 76% 5.0 22.4 59% 0.7 27.8 76% 4.7 25.7 53% -0.3 31.3 71% 2.5 27.9 53% -0.5 26.7 76% 5.8 26.7 59% 1.5 23.5 88% 10.0 18.8 82% 5.9 21.4 100% 7.8 34.8 71% 5.9 26.9 53% 1.9 28.3
Winnable 65% 4.2 19.7 59% 1.3 32.3 53% 1.8 27.1 82% 5.4 18.5 88% 7.6 29.3 82% 4.9 23.3 59% 1.7 25.7 76% 4.8 26.2 53% 1.2 28.1 76% 2.6 25.6 53% 0.5 26.3 82% 6.8 21.3 65% 2.1 21.1 88% 8.4 26.3 65% 4.4 22.4 100% 7.6 33.9 76% 5.8 23.6 59% 1.4 25.2
Informed Stats 71% 4.4 21.2 59% 2.6 34.3 65% 4.5 28.1 76% 5.0 20.6 88% 7.9 25.9 82% 4.8 18.3 59% -0.6 28.6 71% 4.8 25.2 53% -2.2 34.4 71% 3.3 26.4 53% -0.6 26.8 82% 5.9 24.5 71% 0.2 24.9 88% 11.4 21.6 82% 5.2 24.0 82% 6.5 35.8 76% 6.0 26.2 53% 1.6 27.2
The Cruncher 75% 4.5 24.2 53% 1.1 34.8 65% 1.7 27.9 76% 4.8 20.4 88% 7.2 29.6 82% 5.0 23.7 56% -0.1 30.8 65% 3.2 28.7 53% -1.6 29.8 71% 2.0 26.6 53% -0.4 26.0 82% 5.7 24.4 76% 1.1 25.7 88% 9.6 23.0 82% 5.3 22.2 82% 7.4 35.5 76% 5.6 28.2 65% 2.6 27.9
PlusSixOne 71% 2.9 20.9 71% 2.0 33.4 65% 3.3 25.9 76% 4.8 18.6 88% 7.9 25.1 88% 6.2 19.2 59% 0.2 27.6 71% 5.0 23.8 47% -1.6 32.8 71% 2.4 24.7 59% 1.6 25.2 71% 4.4 22.4 59% 0.0 25.4 88% 8.1 24.1 82% 5.5 21.6 88% 7.2 34.4 71% 4.4 29.0 59% -0.3 30.6
Cheap Stats 65% 2.6 23.0 53% 1.5 34.2 71% 3.1 25.1 82% 3.1 21.0 82% 5.6 32.2 81% 5.0 23.8 62% 1.1 29.0 65% 3.4 27.7 47% -0.5 31.4 71% 1.0 27.7 53% 1.2 24.6 82% 3.5 24.8 71% 1.7 23.6 82% 7.3 22.3 82% 3.7 21.5 88% 5.8 33.2 82% 4.8 26.1 71% 1.2 25.9
footycharts 71% 3.7 20.4 53% 1.8 34.2 71% 4.4 25.9 76% 5.0 19.5 88% 7.5 29.0 76% 6.3 20.5 71% 1.3 26.6 76% 5.2 24.9 53% 1.1 28.9 71% 2.1 27.9 53% 1.1 25.7 82% 6.6 19.5 65% 0.2 23.5 88% 8.6 24.7 82% 5.1 21.3 88% 7.7 32.5 76% 4.9 26.0 29% -0.1 28.6
Stattraction 71% 3.8 20.6 53% 2.0 34.6 71% 3.3 27.8 88% 5.9 17.6 88% 7.2 28.6 76% 4.9 21.6 53% -0.7 27.0 71% 4.1 27.5 53% -0.3 30.8 65% 1.9 26.2 65% 1.2 24.6 71% 5.2 23.4 65% 2.0 23.6 88% 9.7 21.2 88% 6.5 19.9 76% 6.2 35.8 71% 5.3 25.6 59% 1.1 27.7
The Footycast 65% 3.1 20.8 59% 2.0 33.3 71% 3.2 27.2 76% 4.4 19.0 88% 6.2 27.9 82% 4.5 22.9 53% 0.4 28.5 71% 3.4 26.9 47% -0.8 31.2 71% 1.8 26.4 59% 1.9 24.2 82% 4.0 22.3 65% 0.3 23.3 88% 8.0 23.4 82% 4.4 22.4 82% 5.7 35.2 76% 4.4 25.3 41% 0.5 28.3
HBin 76% 4.1 21.2 59% 3.1 32.2 65% 2.4 28.8 82% 5.8 17.4 88% 6.9 31.1 76% 4.4 23.7 53% -0.3 26.6 71% 5.3 25.7 53% -1.6 31.2 71% 2.1 25.2 47% -0.8 26.2 71% 5.3 23.9 65% -0.7 25.0 88% 10.9 21.9 82% 5.6 21.5 82% 6.6 32.8 71% 3.8 26.3 47% 1.7 23.9
In The Game 71% 4.5 23.3 59% 1.6 34.0 59% 1.5 26.5 82% 5.6 20.2 88% 8.4 29.1 65% 4.3 24.1 47% -0.8 30.0 71% 4.6 26.2 59% -2.7 32.8 65% 2.6 24.2 47% -0.2 28.0 76% 7.0 27.0 59% -0.3 25.6 88% 10.8 19.9 71% 5.7 24.5 94% 10.6 32.0 76% 3.6 32.2 59% 2.2 27.9
Live Ladders 65% 3.4 22.0 41% 2.1 33.4 59% 3.6 23.8 76% 4.3 18.2 88% 7.3 30.0 71% 4.4 25.5 65% 2.4 24.4 65% 3.4 29.4 65% 2.2 28.1 59% 2.2 26.9 65% 2.0 24.5 88% 5.6 22.6 65% 1.4 22.8 88% 7.9 26.2 71% 4.4 22.7 82% 6.4 33.9 82% 5.5 25.5 41% 0.6 26.5
Graft 65% 3.3 25.6 47% 2.1 34.8 71% 3.6 31.1 76% 4.9 21.5 88% 6.4 30.5 76% 5.0 19.2 47% 0.3 28.5 59% 3.7 26.9 59% 1.1 30.0 65% 1.9 27.7 59% 2.0 26.9 76% 5.1 22.6 71% 0.8 27.1 88% 8.7 20.8 88% 4.7 24.0 76% 6.1 34.5 71% 5.5 28.1 41% 0.8 30.2
Squiggle 71% 3.1 19.9 53% 2.2 33.3 53% 2.5 27.3 76% 4.6 19.4 88% 5.4 30.7 76% 4.7 23.8 47% 0.3 28.1 71% 3.6 27.0 53% 1.5 26.7 71% 2.2 27.3 47% 0.5 27.4 82% 5.5 23.7 65% 1.2 21.6 88% 8.6 24.1 71% 4.5 21.0 88% 7.0 34.2 76% 5.4 26.9 47% 0.4 27.5
AFL Scorigami 71% 3.9 22.2 47% -0.7 36.0 76% 3.5 24.7 76% 3.5 20.3 76% 6.4 31.4 71% 5.0 24.9 47% -1.6 31.4 59% 4.2 26.7 53% -2.4 30.6 65% 1.7 26.8 59% 0.6 26.3 82% 5.5 24.8 71% 1.4 23.4 88% 9.2 24.0 76% 4.3 23.4 82% 6.0 35.2 71% 4.9 27.3 53% 1.9 26.2
Elo Predicts! 65% 3.7 23.5 59% 2.0 33.2 65% 1.9 26.9 71% 4.8 21.7 76% 6.9 27.9 71% 4.7 22.3 47% -0.3 27.4 71% 4.1 30.1 59% -0.9 33.1 71% 1.5 24.3 59% 0.7 25.8 71% 4.4 30.3 65% 0.1 26.1 88% 9.1 23.9 82% 4.9 21.4 82% 5.8 35.4 71% 5.2 30.1 41% 0.4 29.4
Hyperion 73% 3.4 23.5 50% 1.5 32.4 67% 1.6 31.5 75% 4.2 18.1 88% 7.8 27.3 81% 7.0 20.4 69% 1.1 28.1 69% 4.7 25.4 59% -1.6 33.4 75% 2.6 25.5 50% 0.8 26.1 81% 5.2 27.6 62% -0.1 26.9 88% 9.3 20.2 76% 4.4 22.4 81% 5.6 31.8 75% 3.9 24.4 56% -1.0 33.9
Massey Ratings 69% 3.9 24.5 47% 1.5 34.5 71% 2.5 30.4 80% 5.0 18.7 86% 6.5 27.9 79% 4.3 23.2 53% -0.0 30.0 71% 3.6 26.9 53% -0.7 31.6 67% 1.5 28.4 54% 1.2 25.3 86% 6.5 27.8 64% 2.2 21.9 86% 8.8 21.1 86% 5.3 24.1 93% 6.2 32.1 85% 6.0 24.6 53% 0.2 30.2