Adelaide v Carlton
2026-04-09 19:40:00 +10:00
Adelaide Oval

17.12

114

12.14

86

Adelaide won by 28 points

IN

Nankervis

Cumming

Hinge

Laird

O'Brien

Jones

Bond

Pedlar

OUT

IN

O'Keeffe

Haynes

Williams

Hewett

Weitering

Hayward

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		82%	29 points	✓	1.1	0.70
Aggregate		80%	30 points	✓	1.6	0.68
		92%	40 points	✓	12.0	0.88
		87%	54 points	✓	26.0	0.80
		87%	41 points	✓	13.0	0.80
		87%	30 points	✓	2.1	0.79
Punters		86%	34 points	✓	5.5	0.78
		85%	34 points	✓	5.8	0.77
		85%	34 points	✓	6.0	0.77
		84%	31 points	✓	2.8	0.76
		84%	34 points	✓	6.1	0.76
		83%	28 points	✓	0.2	0.73
		82%	33 points	✓	5.3	0.71
		81%	29 points	✓	1.2	0.70
		81%	35 points	✓	6.9	0.70
		80%	31 points	✓	3.3	0.68
		80%	30 points	✓	2.4	0.68
		80%	27 points	✓	0.7	0.68
		80%	28 points	✓	0.3	0.67
		80%	29 points	✓	1.1	0.67
		78%	16 points	✓	12.0	0.64
		77%	25 points	✓	2.9	0.62
		75%	33 points	✓	5.0	0.58
		75%	28 points	✓	0.3	0.58
		75%	21 points	✓	7.1	0.58
		74%	21 points	✓	7.0	0.56
		73%	19 points	✓	9.0	0.55
		69%	14 points	✓	13.7	0.46
		63%	20 points	✓	8.1	0.33

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.