Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
2026-04-11 19:35:00 +10:00
Adelaide Oval

15.14

104

8.16

64

Hawthorn won by 40 points

IN

Mackenzie

Amon

Scrimshaw

Dalton

OUT

IN

Emmett

Hynes

Gallagher

Richards

English

McNeil

Jones

Jaques

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		57%	6 points	✓	34.4	0.19
Aggregate		53%	3 points	✓	37.5	0.08
		71%	16 points	✓	23.6	0.50
		67%	18 points	✓	22.2	0.43
		64%	12 points	✓	28.4	0.36
		63%	11 points	✓	28.5	0.34
		62%	10 points	✓	30.0	0.32
		61%	12 points	✓	28.0	0.29
		61%	7 points	✓	32.6	0.28
Punters		60%	7 points	✓	32.7	0.26
		59%	7 points	✓	33.0	0.24
		57%	6 points	✓	34.4	0.19
		57%	6 points	✓	34.0	0.19
		57%	6 points	✓	33.9	0.19
		56%	9 points	✓	31.0	0.16
		55%	8 points	✓	32.2	0.14
		53%	1 point	✓	39.0	0.10
		50%	0 points	✓	40.0	0.00
		51%	1 point	✗	40.8	-0.03
		51%	2 points	✗	41.5	-0.04
		52%	2 points	✗	41.5	-0.04
		52%	3 points	✗	42.6	-0.06
		53%	2 points	✗	42.0	-0.07
		53%	3 points	✗	42.9	-0.10
		55%	6 points	✗	45.5	-0.16
		56%	6 points	✗	46.0	-0.18
		56%	5 points	✗	44.8	-0.18
		57%	3 points	✗	43.4	-0.21
		59%	12 points	✗	52.0	-0.27
		60%	9 points	✗	49.0	-0.32
		63%	12 points	✗	51.7	-0.43

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.