Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

Wins

Range

Brisbane Lions

15.0

124%

1–3

Hawthorn

14.1

118%

2–4

Western Bulldogs

13.8

121%

1–10

Gold Coast

13.8

116%

1–7

Geelong

13.6

115%

1–8

Adelaide

13.4

112%

2–7

Collingwood

13.0

110%

4–9

Sydney

12.7

108%

5–10

GWS

12.7

106%

5–10

Fremantle

12.6

104%

3–10

Melbourne

10.2

96%

11–15

St Kilda

10.4

94%

11–13

Port Adelaide

10.5

92%

11–14

Carlton

9.5

90%

13–15

North Melbourne

8.7

86%

14–16

Essendon

8.1

82%

14–17

Richmond

7.8

78%

15–18

West Coast

7.2

77%

17–18

PROJECTIONS

History

Wins

Finish

Sydney

–

191.3%

+11.7

Gold Coast

–

181.2%

+12.8

Geelong

–

55.2%

+13.6

Carlton

–

52.3%

+9.5

Adelaide

–∗

–

+13.4

Brisbane Lions

–∗

–

+15.0

Collingwood

–∗

–

+13.0

Essendon

–∗

–

+8.1

Fremantle

–∗

–

+12.6

GWS

–∗

–

+12.7

Hawthorn

–∗

–

+14.1

Melbourne

–∗

–

+10.2

North Melbourne

–∗

–

+8.7

Port Adelaide

–∗

–

+10.5

Richmond

–∗

–

+7.8

St Kilda

–∗

–

+10.4

West Coast

–∗

–

+7.2

Western Bulldogs

–∗

–

+13.8

Models Leaderboard

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
Punters 2	2	0.9452 0.95	41.5050 41.51	100.0000 100.0%
2	2	0.7035 0.70	40.5000 40.50	100.0000 100.0%
2	2	0.6238 0.62	48.1150 48.12	100.0000 100.0%
2	2	0.5912 0.59	48.3850 48.38	100.0000 100.0%
2	2	0.5687 0.57	49.4750 49.48	100.0000 100.0%
2	2	0.4810 0.48	51.2500 51.25	100.0000 100.0%
2	2	0.4353 0.44	52.5050 52.51	100.0000 100.0%
2	2	0.4045 0.40	52.9900 52.99	100.0000 100.0%
2	2	0.1970 0.20	54.1700 54.17	100.0000 100.0%
1	1	0.5190 0.52	47.7700 47.77	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.4993 0.50	51.5250 51.52	50.0000 50.0%
s10 1	1	0.3569 0.36	53.1550 53.16	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.3505 0.35	52.0000 52.00	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.3067 0.31	52.0500 52.05	50.0000 50.0%
Aggregate 1	1	0.2940 0.29	54.1150 54.12	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.2519 0.25	55.8750 55.88	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.2166 0.22	54.5650 54.56	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.2136 0.21	56.0000 56.00	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.2113 0.21	62.0000 62.00	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.1712 0.17	56.6300 56.63	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.1662 0.17	55.5000 55.50	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.1490 0.15	56.0000 56.00	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.1158 0.12	57.0000 57.00	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.0999 0.10	57.5250 57.52	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.0405 0.04	58.0000 58.00	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	0.0346 0.03	58.9250 58.92	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	-0.0197 0.02	59.7500 59.75	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	-0.0791 0.08	59.2000 59.20	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	-0.1012 0.10	61.7200 61.72	50.0000 50.0%
1	1	-0.2475 0.25	57.0000 57.00	50.0000 50.0%
0	0	-0.1106 0.11	61.3800 61.38	0.0000 0.0%

AFL Prediction & Analysis

@squiggle.au @SquiggleAFL Discord

Who will make the finals? The wisdom of crowds

February 16, 2017March 17, 2017

The Arc has an analysis of entries into tip-the-finalists competition:

Entrants to the finalists-tipping competition are very sure that the GWS Giants will make the finals, with good reason. The median estimate was that the Giants have an 88.4% shot at the finals this year. That’s more bullish than the chances given to the Giants by the betting markets (79%) or our Elo model (72.8%). At the other end of the scale, the clear consensus is that the Lions have a tiny chance of making it.

Source: Who will make the finals? The wisdom of crowds | The Arc

Squiggle 2017 on BigFooty

February 15, 2017March 17, 2017

[IMG]

The BigFooty Squiggle 2017 thread kicks off here!

Here’s the starting point for 2017! Positions are calculated from 2016 performance only: They don’t take into consideration list changes, injuries, the fact that 90% of GWS is made up of first round draft picks just coming into their prime, and so on.

Source: Mega Thread – Squiggle 2017 | BigFooty AFL Forum

Site launch

February 9, 2017March 17, 2017

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.