A few musings on the shape of the season that’s about to begin:
- Figuring Footy (warning: contains Eddie McGuire pic):
2017 promises to be one of the most exciting seasons of footy in recent memory. There are probably 16 clubs with legitimate aspirations of, come September, giving the finals a big shake up the way the Dogs did last year.
Source: My Focus for 2017 and Some Round 1 Tips – Figuring Footy
- Matter of Stats gets wonky about Round 1 predictions and where they come from:
This week we see that Home Sweet Home has the highest Disagreement Index (readers from last year will know that this is completely unsurprising), and that disagreement levels are generally high as the Tipsters are split 5-4 in three of the games, and 7-2 in two more.
Source: 2017 – Round 1 : Is This Thing On?
- FootyMaths Institute welcomes you to the new season with some old wisdom:
Hey guess what? That new recruit you think is really good… yeah well this model (and other ELO models) don’t see things like that. Principle is every team has a 36 player list. One player falls, another rises to take their place. And really, everyone thought Adelaide would suffer without ‘Danger’ and the finished as defeated semi finalists.
And there are fresh articles on Expected Wins and Expected Finish for each team as well.
New to Squiggle Dials is PlusSixOne, with some interestingly divergent tips on a couple of games, being more bullish on Essendon (vs Hawthorn) and Port (vs Sydney) than all other models. PlusSixOne delivered a healthy 70.5% tip rate last year in what was a reasonably tough season, so are worth watching!
FootyMaths institute takes a stab at rating pre-season performance by adjusting for quality of opposition:
And as it happens, by the FMI method, St Kilda did indeed have a good pre-season series. And as another wake-up call to the competition, Essendon were next best, with Richmond and Brisbane all but a tie for third.
Read more at: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: POST-JLT: BREAK
The Arc has an analysis of entries into tip-the-finalists competition:
Entrants to the finalists-tipping competition are very sure that the GWS Giants will make the finals, with good reason. The median estimate was that the Giants have an 88.4% shot at the finals this year. That’s more bullish than the chances given to the Giants by the betting markets (79%) or our Elo model (72.8%). At the other end of the scale, the clear consensus is that the Lions have a tiny chance of making it.
Source: Who will make the finals? The wisdom of crowds | The Arc
The BigFooty Squiggle 2017 thread kicks off here!
Here’s the starting point for 2017! Positions are calculated from 2016 performance only: They don’t take into consideration list changes, injuries, the fact that 90% of GWS is made up of first round draft picks just coming into their prime, and so on.
Source: Mega Thread – Squiggle 2017 | BigFooty AFL Forum
Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.
Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.