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Close Games: Do Successful Teams Win Them?

Posted on July 11, 2017July 11, 2017 by Max Barry

Matter of Stats performs a typically surgical dissection of the idea that good teams win close games. (Spoiler alert: They don’t.)

Successful teams don’t so much tend to win the close ones, but instead tend to win the ones that aren’t close.

Source: UPDATE: Close Games in VFL/AFL History: Do Successful Teams Win Them? — Matter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 17.8 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Sydney 17.3 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Hawthorn 15.8 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Geelong 15.6 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Adelaide 13.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
6
 Gold Coast 12.8 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
7
 Melbourne 12.9 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
8
 Brisbane Lions 12.4 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.5 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
10
 Collingwood 11.7 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 GWS 10.8 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 St Kilda 10.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 North Melbourne 10.1 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Carlton 9.9 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.1 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 6.8 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Essendon 4.5 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 4.7 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 4 games of Round 12, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 11 1 – 135.2%
+6.8
1
2
 Sydney 10 2 – 152.4%
+7.3
2
3
 Hawthorn 8 3 1 114.8%
+7.3
3
4
 Geelong 8 4 – 121.9%
+7.6
4
5
 Gold Coast 7∗ 4 – 116.9%
+5.8
6
6
 Melbourne 7∗ 4 – 106.7%
+5.9
7
7
 Adelaide 6∗ 5 – 107.9%
+7.0
5
8
 Brisbane Lions 6 6 – 103.9%
+6.4
8
9
 Western Bulldogs 6∗ 5 – 92.8%
+6.5
9
10
 Collingwood 5∗ 5 1 100.3%
+6.2
10
11
 St Kilda 5 7 – 102.3%
+5.6
12
12
 GWS 5∗ 6 – 98.6%
+5.8
11
13
 North Melbourne 5∗ 6 – 97.6%
+5.1
13
14
 Carlton 4 8 – 87.5%
+5.9
14
15
 Port Adelaide 3∗ 8 – 100.9%
+5.1
15
16
 West Coast 3∗ 8 – 66.1%
+3.8
16
17
 Richmond 2 10 – 60.4%
+2.7
18
18
 Essendon 1∗ 10 – 70.9%
+3.5
17

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 2

80 25.4960 25.50 26.5585 26.56 77.6699 77.7%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 2

80 24.6528 24.65 25.5082 25.51 77.6699 77.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 2

78 17.1503 17.15 26.4942 26.49 75.7282 75.7%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 2

77 25.2479 25.25 26.5631 26.56 74.7573 74.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 3

77 24.2871 24.29 27.3204 27.32 74.7573 74.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 2

77 22.4821 22.48 27.1314 27.13 74.7573 74.8%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 2

76 23.6752 23.68 26.5607 26.56 73.7864 73.8%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 2

76 19.4299 19.43 27.0971 27.10 73.7864 73.8%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 2

75 25.8118 25.81 26.2143 26.21 72.8155 72.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 2

75 25.7438 25.74 26.9737 26.97 72.8155 72.8%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 2

75 24.6085 24.61 26.9150 26.91 72.8155 72.8%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 2

75 22.5360 22.54 26.8319 26.83 72.8155 72.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 2

74 25.4840 25.48 27.3268 27.33 71.8447 71.8%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 2

74 22.6308 22.63 27.4162 27.42 71.8447 71.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 2

74 22.0189 22.02 28.4272 28.43 71.8447 71.8%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2

74 21.4773 21.48 27.3606 27.36 71.8447 71.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 2

73 22.9796 22.98 27.0609 27.06 70.8738 70.9%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 2

73 20.0411 20.04 28.3089 28.31 70.8738 70.9%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 2

72 20.3620 20.36 26.8680 26.87 69.9029 69.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 2

71 23.4196 23.42 26.5293 26.53 68.9320 68.9%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 2

71 23.0293 23.03 27.6350 27.64 68.9320 68.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 2

71 22.8657 22.87 27.1359 27.14 68.9320 68.9%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 3

71 22.2016 22.20 27.5922 27.59 68.9320 68.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 2

71 21.6695 21.67 27.1946 27.19 68.9320 68.9%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 2

71 21.1650 21.16 29.0777 29.08 68.9320 68.9%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 3

71 19.5729 19.57 27.1748 27.17 68.9320 68.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 3

70 18.6185 18.62 27.5447 27.54 67.9612 68.0%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 2

69 19.5713 19.57 27.5030 27.50 66.9903 67.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 2

67 16.7332 16.73 28.0388 28.04 65.0485 65.0%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 3

66 17.5080 17.51 27.8191 27.82 †9 70.2128 70.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 2

55 18.7172 18.72 28.7179 28.72 †25 70.5128 70.5%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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