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Close Games: Do Successful Teams Win Them?

Posted on July 11, 2017July 11, 2017 by Max Barry

Matter of Stats performs a typically surgical dissection of the idea that good teams win close games. (Spoiler alert: They don’t.)

Successful teams don’t so much tend to win the close ones, but instead tend to win the ones that aren’t close.

Source: UPDATE: Close Games in VFL/AFL History: Do Successful Teams Win Them? — Matter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 16.9 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 15.9 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Fremantle 16.1 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.4 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Geelong 13.9 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
6
 Gold Coast 12.7 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Collingwood 12.6 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.5 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
9
 Adelaide 12.2 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
10
 Melbourne 12.1 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
11
 St Kilda 11.5 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 GWS 10.9 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–13
13
 North Melbourne 10.2 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Port Adelaide 9.9 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Carlton 7.5 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 Essendon 6.1 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 West Coast 6.3 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–18
18
 Richmond 5.2 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 3 games of Round 9, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 8 1 – 131.6%
+8.1
3
2
 Sydney 7∗ 1 – 165.5%
+9.9
1
3
 Hawthorn 6 2 1 116.8%
+9.4
2
4
 Brisbane Lions 6 3 – 124.5%
+8.4
4
5
 Gold Coast 5∗ 3 – 116.0%
+7.7
6
6
 Geelong 5∗ 3 – 114.6%
+8.9
5
7
 Melbourne 5∗ 3 – 100.2%
+7.1
10
8
 Western Bulldogs 5 4 – 92.4%
+7.5
8
9
 Collingwood 4∗ 3 1 108.6%
+8.1
7
10
 St Kilda 4∗ 4 – 114.9%
+7.5
11
11
 North Melbourne 4∗ 4 – 106.1%
+6.2
13
12
 Adelaide 4∗ 4 – 96.6%
+8.2
9
13
 Port Adelaide 3 6 – 109.5%
+6.9
14
14
 GWS 3∗ 5 – 88.2%
+7.9
12
15
 West Coast 2∗ 6 – 59.3%
+4.3
17
16
 Carlton 1 8 – 79.3%
+6.5
15
17
 Essendon 1∗ 7 – 70.2%
+5.1
16
18
 Richmond 1∗ 7 – 60.0%
+4.2
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 2

62 20.3653 20.37 24.6228 24.62 82.6667 82.7%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 2

61 20.9372 20.94 25.8275 25.83 81.3333 81.3%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 3

59 20.9670 20.97 25.8452 25.85 78.6667 78.7%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 2

59 19.1277 19.13 26.1977 26.20 78.6667 78.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 1

59 13.7683 13.77 25.5771 25.58 78.6667 78.7%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 2

58 21.0185 21.02 25.3736 25.37 77.3333 77.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 3

58 20.4285 20.43 26.9333 26.93 77.3333 77.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 3

58 19.1863 19.19 26.0097 26.01 77.3333 77.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 3

58 14.5065 14.51 27.1067 27.11 77.3333 77.3%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 1

57 21.4421 21.44 26.1065 26.11 76.0000 76.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 2

57 21.2683 21.27 26.7104 26.71 76.0000 76.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 2

57 20.2104 20.21 26.0945 26.09 76.0000 76.0%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 2

57 18.0845 18.08 26.0209 26.02 76.0000 76.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 3

56 19.5728 19.57 27.4820 27.48 74.6667 74.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 2

56 19.2382 19.24 26.1837 26.18 74.6667 74.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 3

56 18.8600 18.86 27.5600 27.56 74.6667 74.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 1

56 18.1669 18.17 26.5219 26.52 74.6667 74.7%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 3

56 17.5768 17.58 27.3379 27.34 74.6667 74.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 2

55 16.5102 16.51 26.7093 26.71 73.3333 73.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 2

54 17.5350 17.54 27.5067 27.51 72.0000 72.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 3

53 18.3324 18.33 26.7763 26.78 70.6667 70.7%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 2

53 18.1832 18.18 26.2765 26.28 70.6667 70.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 1

53 18.1277 18.13 27.1244 27.12 70.6667 70.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 1

53 17.1917 17.19 27.0267 27.03 70.6667 70.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 3

53 16.8448 16.84 29.0800 29.08 70.6667 70.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 3

53 15.3094 15.31 27.2933 27.29 70.6667 70.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 2

52 15.7410 15.74 26.9084 26.91 69.3333 69.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 2

52 14.9763 14.98 27.0920 27.09 69.3333 69.3%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 3

49 14.6185 14.62 27.1067 27.11 65.3333 65.3%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 3

47 12.6347 12.63 28.2121 28.21 †9 71.2121 71.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 3

37 14.1200 14.12 28.6800 28.68 †25 74.0000 74.0%

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