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Close Games: Do Successful Teams Win Them?

Posted on July 11, 2017July 11, 2017 by Max Barry

Matter of Stats performs a typically surgical dissection of the idea that good teams win close games. (Spoiler alert: They don’t.)

Successful teams don’t so much tend to win the close ones, but instead tend to win the ones that aren’t close.

Source: UPDATE: Close Games in VFL/AFL History: Do Successful Teams Win Them? — Matter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Hawthorn 16.5 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Sydney 15.9 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Geelong 15.1 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–6
4
 Fremantle 15.0 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.6 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Western Bulldogs 14.7 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
7
 Gold Coast 13.1 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
8
 Adelaide 12.4 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 Collingwood 11.7 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 GWS 11.2 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
11
 St Kilda 10.7 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 Melbourne 10.6 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
13
 North Melbourne 9.9 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Port Adelaide 9.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Carlton 7.6 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–17
16
 West Coast 7.5 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
17
 Essendon 6.9 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
18
 Richmond 4.8 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 6 games of Round 6, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 5 1 – 173.3%
+10.9
2
2
 Hawthorn 5 1 – 118.2%
+11.5
1
3
 Fremantle 4∗ 1 – 131.4%
+11.0
4
4
 Gold Coast 4 2 – 126.9%
+9.1
7
5
 Geelong 4 2 – 116.1%
+11.1
3
6
 Western Bulldogs 4 2 – 102.0%
+10.7
6
7
 Brisbane Lions 3∗ 2 – 115.0%
+11.6
5
8
 North Melbourne 3∗ 2 – 105.9%
+6.9
13
9
 Adelaide 3 3 – 105.3%
+9.4
8
10
 Collingwood 3 3 – 94.8%
+8.7
9
11
 Melbourne 3∗ 2 – 92.7%
+7.6
12
12
 Port Adelaide 2 4 – 108.1%
+7.0
14
13
 St Kilda 2 4 – 92.6%
+8.7
11
14
 GWS 2 4 – 86.8%
+9.2
10
15
 West Coast 2∗ 3 – 64.3%
+5.5
16
16
 Carlton 1 5 – 79.2%
+6.6
15
17
 Essendon 1 5 – 79.1%
+5.9
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 5 – 56.4%
+4.8
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 6

42 14.3733 14.37 23.7386 23.74 82.3529 82.4%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 6

41 14.4981 14.50 25.6575 25.66 80.3922 80.4%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 6

41 8.5484 8.55 25.2384 25.24 80.3922 80.4%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 6

40 13.8141 13.81 25.2284 25.23 78.4314 78.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 6

39 14.3169 14.32 26.2073 26.21 76.4706 76.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 6

39 14.0589 14.06 25.1937 25.19 76.4706 76.5%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 6

39 13.4675 13.47 25.1622 25.16 76.4706 76.5%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 6

39 12.3071 12.31 25.3825 25.38 76.4706 76.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 5

38 14.4287 14.43 25.5812 25.58 74.5098 74.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 6

38 13.6267 13.63 24.7688 24.77 74.5098 74.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 6

38 12.2314 12.23 26.2049 26.20 74.5098 74.5%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 5

38 12.1179 12.12 27.1373 27.14 74.5098 74.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 6

38 11.8070 11.81 26.0865 26.09 74.5098 74.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 6

38 11.4209 11.42 25.2314 25.23 74.5098 74.5%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 5

37 11.8777 11.88 25.6204 25.62 72.5490 72.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 5

37 11.3673 11.37 27.7059 27.71 72.5490 72.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 6

37 11.1677 11.17 26.3137 26.31 72.5490 72.5%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 6

37 8.8533 8.85 26.5510 26.55 72.5490 72.5%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 6

37 7.6480 7.65 27.4314 27.43 72.5490 72.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 6

36 13.8933 13.89 26.4506 26.45 70.5882 70.6%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 6

35 13.3740 13.37 25.8667 25.87 68.6275 68.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 6

35 12.1865 12.19 27.8235 27.82 68.6275 68.6%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 5

34 11.8654 11.87 26.0122 26.01 66.6667 66.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 6

34 10.7430 10.74 27.1125 27.11 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 5

34 10.6742 10.67 25.5922 25.59 66.6667 66.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 5

34 10.2836 10.28 29.5882 29.59 66.6667 66.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 6

34 9.1901 9.19 26.8353 26.84 66.6667 66.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 6

34 7.9576 7.96 27.2373 27.24 66.6667 66.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 5

30 8.0987 8.10 27.6471 27.65 58.8235 58.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 6

28 5.3287 5.33 27.3810 27.38 †9 66.6667 66.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 6

17 6.0775 6.08 30.4615 30.46 †25 65.3846 65.4%

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