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Tag: Matter of Stats

Close Games: Do Successful Teams Win Them?

Posted on July 11, 2017July 11, 2017

Matter of Stats performs a typically surgical dissection of the idea that good teams win close games. (Spoiler alert: They don’t.)

Successful teams don’t so much tend to win the close ones, but instead tend to win the ones that aren’t close.

Source: UPDATE: Close Games in VFL/AFL History: Do Successful Teams Win Them? — Matter of Stats

Wins % Range
1
Collingwood 17.8 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Adelaide 16.4 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–3
3
Brisbane Lions 16.3 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–4
4
Geelong 15.8 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
5
Gold Coast 15.2 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–6
6
GWS 14.7 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–8
7
Western Bulldogs 13.9 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–9
8
Hawthorn 14.2 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–8
9
Fremantle 14.0 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
10
Sydney 11.4 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
11
Port Adelaide 10.1 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
12
Carlton 8.7 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–13
13
Melbourne 8.9 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–13
14
St Kilda 7.9 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
15
Essendon 7.5 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
16
North Melbourne 6.3 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
Richmond 5.5 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
18
West Coast 2.5 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After 2 games of Round 19, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Collingwood 14∗ 3 – 136.1%
+3.8
1
2
Brisbane Lions 13 4 1 116.6%
+2.8
3
3
Adelaide 12∗ 5 – 136.1%
+4.4
2
4
GWS 12 6 – 116.0%
+2.7
6
5
Geelong 11∗ 6 – 127.6%
+4.8
4
6
Gold Coast 11∗ 5 – 121.8%
+4.2
5
7
Hawthorn 11∗ 6 – 116.8%
+3.2
8
8
Fremantle 11∗ 6 – 109.3%
+3.0
9
9
Western Bulldogs 10 8 – 127.4%
+3.9
7
10
Sydney 8∗ 9 – 94.2%
+3.4
10
11
Port Adelaide 8∗ 9 – 89.8%
+2.1
11
12
Carlton 6∗ 11 – 93.7%
+2.7
12
13
Melbourne 6∗ 11 – 89.7%
+2.9
13
14
Essendon 6∗ 11 – 75.0%
+1.5
15
15
St Kilda 5∗ 12 – 86.2%
+2.9
14
16
North Melbourne 4∗ 12 1 76.7%
+1.8
16
17
Richmond 4∗ 13 – 64.4%
+1.5
17
18
West Coast 1∗ 16 – 64.2%
+1.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 1

117 30.78 25.56 76.0%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 2

116 26.87 26.11 75.3%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 2

115 30.45 25.35 74.7%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 2

115 29.59 25.47 74.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 2

115 29.47 26.25 74.7%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 2

115 29.27 25.40 74.7%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 2

114 30.31 25.50 74.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 2

114 30.31 25.33 74.0%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 2

114 29.53 25.36 74.0%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 1

111 30.77 26.21 72.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 1

111 29.43 26.85 72.1%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 2

111 27.58 26.08 72.1%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 1

111 27.27 26.06 72.1%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 1

110 31.54 25.03 71.4%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 2

110 29.11 25.80 71.4%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 1

109 30.41 25.16 70.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 1

109 29.87 25.13 70.8%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 1

108 27.31 26.15 70.1%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 1

108 26.48 25.66 70.1%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 2

108 20.74 27.61 70.1%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 2

107 26.33 26.80 69.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 1

106 27.16 26.27 68.8%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 2

106 24.91 27.12 68.8%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 2

105 28.92 25.99 68.2%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 2

104 26.66 26.10 67.5%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 2

103 24.20 27.44 66.9%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 2

103 14.74 28.36 66.9%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 1

99 23.75 27.14 64.3%

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