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Tag: Matter of Stats

Close Games: Do Successful Teams Win Them?

Posted on July 11, 2017July 11, 2017

Matter of Stats performs a typically surgical dissection of the idea that good teams win close games. (Spoiler alert: They don’t.)

Successful teams don’t so much tend to win the close ones, but instead tend to win the ones that aren’t close.

Source: UPDATE: Close Games in VFL/AFL History: Do Successful Teams Win Them? — Matter of Stats

Wins % Range
1
GWS 14.3 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1–5
2
Melbourne 13.8 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–5
3
Brisbane Lions 13.9 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–5
4
Port Adelaide 13.8 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1–10
5
Collingwood 13.8 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–8
6
Geelong 13.3 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–8
7
Adelaide 13.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1–12
8
Sydney 12.6 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–11
9
Western Bulldogs 12.5 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–12
10
Carlton 12.2 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–11
11
St Kilda 11.7 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9–14
12
Gold Coast 11.8 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–13
13
Fremantle 10.8 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–14
14
Richmond 9.9 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
15
Essendon 8.6 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15–16
16
Hawthorn 8.6 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15–16
17
North Melbourne 6.5 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17–18
18
West Coast 4.6 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17–18

Pre-season 2024.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Adelaide – – –
+13.1
7
2
Brisbane Lions – – –
+13.9
3
3
Carlton – – –
+12.2
10
4
Collingwood – – –
+13.8
5
5
Essendon – – –
+8.6
15
6
Fremantle – – –
+10.8
13
7
Geelong – – –
+13.3
6
8
Gold Coast – – –
+11.8
12
9
GWS – – –
+14.3
1
10
Hawthorn – – –
+8.6
16
11
Melbourne – – –
+13.8
2
12
North Melbourne – – –
+6.5
17
13
Port Adelaide – – –
+13.8
4
14
Richmond – – –
+9.9
14
15
St Kilda – – –
+11.7
11
16
Sydney – – –
+12.6
8
17
West Coast – – –
+4.6
18
18
Western Bulldogs – – –
+12.5
9

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