Matter of Stats Archives

Close Games: Do Successful Teams Win Them?

Matter of Stats performs a typically surgical dissection of the idea that good teams win close games. (Spoiler alert: They don’t.)

Successful teams don’t so much tend to win the close ones, but instead tend to win the ones that aren’t close.

		W	L	%
1	Port Adelaide	3	0	153.2%
2	Richmond	3	0	152.8%
3	Sydney	3	0	127.8%
4	Geelong	2	1	120.2%
5	GWS	2	1	119.9%
6	Collingwood	2	1	117.1%
7	West Coast	2	1	113.0%
8	Fremantle	2	1	103.8%
9	Western Bulldogs	2	1	85.1%
10	Brisbane Lions	1	2	113.4%
11	Hawthorn	1	2	106.6%
12	Adelaide	1	2	100.10%
13	Carlton	1	2	93.2%
14	Essendon	1	2	80.3%
15	North Melbourne	1	2	66.9%
16	Melbourne	0	3	74.8%
17	St Kilda	0	3	72.6%
18	Gold Coast	0	3	52.7%

After Round 1, 2020.

		W	L	%
1	Port Adelaide	1	0	262.1%
2	Collingwood	1	0	252.9%
3	West Coast	1	0	152.9%
4	Hawthorn	1	0	145.2%
5	GWS	1	0	143.8%
6	Richmond	1	0	129.6%
7	Essendon	1	0	110.5%
8	Sydney	1	0	104.2%
9	North Melbourne	1	0	103.7%
10	St Kilda	0	1	96.4%
11	Adelaide	0	1	95.9%
12	Fremantle	0	1	90.5%
13	Carlton	0	1	77.1%
14	Geelong	0	1	69.5%
15	Brisbane Lions	0	1	68.9%
16	Melbourne	0	1	65.4%
17	Western Bulldogs	0	1	39.5%
18	Gold Coast	0	1	38.2%

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
8	8	3.88	18.33	88.9%
8	8	3.67	17.44	88.9%
8	8	3.04	18.56	88.9%
8	8	2.85	17.11	88.9%
Aggregate 8	8	2.67	16.79	88.9%
8	8	2.29	17.84	88.9%
8	8	2.21	18.11	88.9%
7	7	3.15	18.78	77.8%
7	7	3.07	16.96	77.8%
7	7	2.62	17.80	77.8%
Punters 7	7	2.40	19.17	77.8%
7	7	1.86	19.33	77.8%
7	7	1.53	20.10	77.8%
7	7	1.20	17.56	77.8%
6	6	3.11	16.11	66.7%
6	6	2.53	17.96	66.7%
5	5	2.06	20.73	55.6%