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Hardest Round Ever?

Posted on July 21, 2017July 21, 2017 by Max Barry

It’s a tough round to tip, observes Matter of Stats:

I’ve been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week – 12.9 points per game – is the lowest it’s been for any home and away round during that period.

Source: 2017 – Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever? — Matter of Stats

CategoriesMatter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.1 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.8 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Brisbane Lions 15.9 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Hawthorn 15.7 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Geelong 14.9 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Melbourne 15.3 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Adelaide 14.6 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13.4 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 13.1 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Carlton 12.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.2 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 GWS 10.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Gold Coast 8.8 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 6.6 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.3 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.1 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.4 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 4 games of Round 24, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 4 – 137.2%
+0.1
1
2
 Sydney 17 5 – 134.5%
+0.8
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16 7 – 121.7%
+-0.1
3
4
 Hawthorn 14 6 2 117.3%
+0.7
4
5
 Melbourne 15 8 – 109.6%
+0.3
6
6
 Geelong 14 8 – 120.2%
+0.9
5
7
 Adelaide 14 8 – 115.1%
+0.6
7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13 9 1 95.4%
+-0.1
8
9
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.4%
+0.1
9
10
 Carlton 12 10 1 101.5%
+-0.1
10
11
 St Kilda 10 13 – 102.8%
+0.2
11
12
 GWS 10 12 – 101.8%
+0.4
12
13
 Gold Coast 9 14 – 94.5%
+-0.2
13
14
 North Melbourne 9 13 – 90.7%
+0.2
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6 16 – 87.0%
+0.6
15
16
 West Coast 4 18 – 70.5%
+0.3
16
17
 Richmond 3 19 – 62.8%
+0.1
17
18
 Essendon 2 20 – 63.5%
+0.4
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 1

153 48.5442 48.54 25.3422 25.34 75.7426 75.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 1

152 33.3518 33.35 25.5095 25.51 75.2475 75.2%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 1

150 50.5968 50.60 25.2683 25.27 74.2574 74.3%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 1

150 46.1217 46.12 25.6097 25.61 74.2574 74.3%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 1

149 49.9722 49.97 25.3483 25.35 73.7624 73.8%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 1

149 48.1685 48.17 24.9079 24.91 73.7624 73.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 1

149 47.7904 47.79 26.1931 26.19 73.7624 73.8%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 1

148 48.0982 48.10 25.3159 25.32 73.2673 73.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 1

148 45.8550 45.85 25.7270 25.73 73.2673 73.3%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 0

147 49.8859 49.89 25.2173 25.22 72.7723 72.8%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 1

147 46.9059 46.91 26.0990 26.10 72.7723 72.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 1

146 51.2896 51.29 25.7613 25.76 72.2772 72.3%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 1

146 48.9871 48.99 26.4356 26.44 72.2772 72.3%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 1

144 49.0393 49.04 25.8131 25.81 71.2871 71.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 2

144 45.3657 45.37 25.4856 25.49 71.2871 71.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 1

144 37.7621 37.76 26.4527 26.45 †1 71.6418 71.6%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 1

143 47.1203 47.12 25.4650 25.46 70.7921 70.8%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 1

143 47.0134 47.01 25.6150 25.61 70.7921 70.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 0

143 46.8551 46.86 25.6917 25.69 70.7921 70.8%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 1

143 44.0790 44.08 26.3532 26.35 70.7921 70.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 0

143 43.6681 43.67 25.4119 25.41 70.7921 70.8%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 1

143 38.9922 38.99 25.9272 25.93 70.7921 70.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 1

142 46.6169 46.62 26.4433 26.44 †4 71.7172 71.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 1

139 45.5042 45.50 26.7422 26.74 68.8119 68.8%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 0

139 43.7923 43.79 26.7772 26.78 68.8119 68.8%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 0

139 43.7632 43.76 26.0198 26.02 68.8119 68.8%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 0

139 43.1646 43.16 26.8614 26.86 68.8119 68.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 1

139 40.4912 40.49 26.3005 26.30 †9 72.0207 72.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 1

138 37.9985 38.00 27.0750 27.07 68.3168 68.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 1

136 40.2469 40.25 26.3717 26.37 67.3267 67.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 1

127 42.8712 42.87 26.6638 26.66 †25 71.7514 71.8%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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