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Hardest Round Ever?

Posted on July 21, 2017July 21, 2017 by Max Barry

It’s a tough round to tip, observes Matter of Stats:

I’ve been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week – 12.9 points per game – is the lowest it’s been for any home and away round during that period.

Source: 2017 – Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever? — Matter of Stats

CategoriesMatter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.9 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.2 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 16.3 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.0 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
5
 Geelong 14.3 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Adelaide 14.5 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Melbourne 13.9 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13.6 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 13.2 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 St Kilda 11.2 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 Carlton 11.4 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 GWS 10.7 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 North Melbourne 8.9 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Gold Coast 8.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Port Adelaide 7.7 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 5.2 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Essendon 2.8 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Richmond 2.9 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 6 games of Round 21, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 18 2 – 147.3%
+1.9
1
2
 Sydney 15 5 – 129.5%
+2.2
2
3
 Hawthorn 14 5 1 123.7%
+1.8
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 13 7 – 114.8%
+2.0
4
5
 Geelong 12 8 – 117.2%
+2.3
5
6
 Adelaide 12∗ 7 – 113.7%
+2.5
6
7
 Melbourne 12∗ 7 – 107.8%
+1.9
7
8
 Western Bulldogs 12 8 – 94.8%
+1.6
8
9
 Collingwood 11 8 1 105.6%
+1.7
9
10
 Carlton 10 10 – 97.0%
+1.4
11
11
 St Kilda 9 11 – 104.3%
+2.2
10
12
 GWS 9 11 – 99.0%
+1.7
12
13
 North Melbourne 8 12 – 89.3%
+0.9
13
14
 Gold Coast 7∗ 12 – 94.8%
+1.4
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6 14 – 95.1%
+1.7
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 15 – 70.1%
+1.2
16
17
 Essendon 2∗ 17 – 65.4%
+0.8
17
18
 Richmond 2∗ 17 – 60.9%
+0.9
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 4

135 43.7345 43.73 24.9093 24.91 76.2712 76.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 3

133 45.4654 45.47 25.5198 25.52 75.1412 75.1%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 4

133 42.5943 42.59 24.5307 24.53 75.1412 75.1%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 4

133 29.4740 29.47 25.2437 25.24 75.1412 75.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 5

132 45.1074 45.11 24.9608 24.96 74.5763 74.6%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 5

131 44.6780 44.68 25.0506 25.05 74.0113 74.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 4

131 43.8629 43.86 25.0733 25.07 74.0113 74.0%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 5

131 42.7205 42.72 24.9926 24.99 74.0113 74.0%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 6

131 40.9371 40.94 25.3569 25.36 74.0113 74.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 5

130 46.1583 46.16 25.4156 25.42 73.4463 73.4%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

130 40.0742 40.07 25.4047 25.40 73.4463 73.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 4

129 42.4284 42.43 25.5763 25.58 72.8814 72.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 4

128 43.3785 43.38 26.1751 26.18 72.3164 72.3%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

127 43.6690 43.67 25.5769 25.58 71.7514 71.8%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 4

127 42.2390 42.24 25.0861 25.09 71.7514 71.8%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 3

127 40.2228 40.22 25.8532 25.85 71.7514 71.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

126 41.7209 41.72 25.2993 25.30 71.1864 71.2%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 4

126 41.6280 41.63 25.1700 25.17 71.1864 71.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 4

126 33.0447 33.04 26.1818 26.18 †1 71.5909 71.6%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 4

125 39.4214 39.42 26.4561 26.46 †3 71.8391 71.8%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 4

125 39.1222 39.12 25.4141 25.41 70.6215 70.6%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 3

125 38.1981 38.20 25.2277 25.23 70.6215 70.6%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 4

125 33.8575 33.86 25.7209 25.72 70.6215 70.6%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 5

123 40.8745 40.87 26.4730 26.47 69.4915 69.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 4

123 39.3185 39.32 25.7288 25.73 69.4915 69.5%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 4

122 38.7535 38.75 26.4689 26.47 68.9266 68.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 5

122 36.8122 36.81 26.7006 26.70 68.9266 68.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 4

121 36.8459 36.85 25.6754 25.68 68.3616 68.4%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 4

121 36.1544 36.15 25.9405 25.94 †9 72.0238 72.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 4

121 33.1316 33.13 26.7918 26.79 68.3616 68.4%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 4

110 38.6654 38.67 26.2895 26.29 †25 72.3684 72.4%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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