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Hardest Round Ever?

Posted on July 21, 2017July 21, 2017 by Max Barry

It’s a tough round to tip, observes Matter of Stats:

I’ve been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week – 12.9 points per game – is the lowest it’s been for any home and away round during that period.

Source: 2017 – Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever? — Matter of Stats

CategoriesMatter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.1 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 15.9 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Western Bulldogs 14.9 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
4
 Gold Coast 15.2 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.7 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
6
 Adelaide 14.0 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Hawthorn 13.9 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
8
 GWS 12.6 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
9
 Fremantle 12.4 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Sydney 11.6 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
11
 Carlton 10.9 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
12
 Essendon 10.1 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 St Kilda 9.4 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
14
 Melbourne 9.3 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.9 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.0 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.7 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 4.3 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 6 games of Round 11, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 9 2 – 132.9%
+8.1
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 8 2 1 113.1%
+6.2
5
3
 Gold Coast 7∗ 2 – 132.0%
+8.2
4
4
 Geelong 7 4 – 122.0%
+8.9
2
5
 Hawthorn 7 4 – 117.4%
+6.9
7
6
 Western Bulldogs 6 5 – 126.5%
+8.9
3
7
 Adelaide 6∗ 4 – 124.7%
+8.0
6
8
 GWS 6 5 – 109.9%
+6.6
8
9
 Fremantle 6 5 – 105.6%
+6.4
9
10
 Essendon 6∗ 4 – 85.0%
+4.1
12
11
 Carlton 4 7 – 102.8%
+6.9
11
12
 Sydney 4∗ 6 – 98.7%
+7.6
10
13
 St Kilda 4∗ 6 – 91.0%
+5.4
13
14
 Melbourne 4∗ 6 – 82.6%
+5.3
14
15
 Port Adelaide 4 7 – 79.1%
+4.9
15
16
 Richmond 3 8 – 69.2%
+2.7
17
17
 North Melbourne 2 8 1 78.1%
+3.5
16
18
 West Coast 1∗ 9 – 66.6%
+3.3
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 4

72 15.17 26.56 75.8%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 4

72 14.59 26.96 75.8%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 4

71 15.72 26.63 74.7%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 4

71 14.71 27.46 74.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 4

70 15.82 26.72 73.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 4

70 15.18 27.28 73.7%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 4

70 14.12 26.93 73.7%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 4

69 14.54 26.62 72.6%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 4

69 14.08 26.94 72.6%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 3

69 13.13 28.08 72.6%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 4

68 16.80 26.27 71.6%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 4

68 12.41 27.30 71.6%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 4

67 15.53 26.38 70.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 3

67 14.02 27.42 70.5%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 4

67 12.32 27.85 70.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 4

67 12.04 28.68 70.5%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 5

67 11.34 28.19 70.5%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 3

67 10.58 27.05 70.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 4

66 14.11 26.43 69.5%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 4

66 13.49 27.66 69.5%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 3

66 11.98 28.02 69.5%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 4

64 6.43 29.90 67.4%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 3

62 10.94 28.09 65.3%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 3

62 10.13 28.73 65.3%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 3

61 10.40 28.35 64.2%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 5

61 9.47 29.21 64.2%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 4

60 6.60 29.54 63.2%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 1

59 11.11 28.07†5 65.6%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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