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Hardest Round Ever?

Posted on July 21, 2017July 21, 2017 by Max Barry

It’s a tough round to tip, observes Matter of Stats:

I’ve been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week – 12.9 points per game – is the lowest it’s been for any home and away round during that period.

Source: 2017 – Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever? — Matter of Stats

CategoriesMatter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 GWS 14.3 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–5
2
 Melbourne 13.8 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
3
 Brisbane Lions 13.9 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
4
 Port Adelaide 13.8 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–10
5
 Collingwood 13.8 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–8
6
 Geelong 13.3 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–8
7
 Adelaide 13.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–12
8
 Sydney 12.6 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–11
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.5 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–12
10
 Carlton 12.2 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–11
11
 St Kilda 11.7 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–14
12
 Gold Coast 11.8 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–13
13
 Fremantle 10.8 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–14
14
 Richmond 9.9 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Essendon 8.6 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 Hawthorn 8.6 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
17
 North Melbourne 6.5 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 West Coast 4.6 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

Pre-season 2024.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Adelaide – – –
+13.1
7
2
 Brisbane Lions – – –
+13.9
3
3
 Carlton – – –
+12.2
10
4
 Collingwood – – –
+13.8
5
5
 Essendon – – –
+8.6
15
6
 Fremantle – – –
+10.8
13
7
 Geelong – – –
+13.3
6
8
 Gold Coast – – –
+11.8
12
9
 GWS – – –
+14.3
1
10
 Hawthorn – – –
+8.6
16
11
 Melbourne – – –
+13.8
2
12
 North Melbourne – – –
+6.5
17
13
 Port Adelaide – – –
+13.8
4
14
 Richmond – – –
+9.9
14
15
 St Kilda – – –
+11.7
11
16
 Sydney – – –
+12.6
8
17
 West Coast – – –
+4.6
18
18
 Western Bulldogs – – –
+12.5
9

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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