Essendon v Adelaide
2026-08-02 16:40:00 +10:00
Docklands

11.7

73

23.7

145

Adelaide won by 72 points

IN

Unwin

Jones

Johnson

Bryan

Langford

Blakiston

McKay

Robey

Ridley

Cox

OUT

IN

Ryan

Ludowyke

Dowling

Cook

Ah Chee

Keane

Berry

Milera

Peatling

Murray

Murray

Maley

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		87%	36 points	✓	35.6	0.81
Aggregate		84%	35 points	✓	36.7	0.76
		92%	38 points	✓	34.5	0.87
		91%	48 points	✓	24.2	0.87
		91%	37 points	✓	35.3	0.86
		90%	41 points	✓	30.7	0.85
		90%	39 points	✓	32.7	0.85
		90%	39 points	✓	33.0	0.85
		89%	39 points	✓	33.0	0.83
		88%	29 points	✓	43.1	0.82
		88%	42 points	✓	30.0	0.82
		88%	43 points	✓	28.7	0.81
		88%	31 points	✓	40.7	0.81
		88%	37 points	✓	34.7	0.81
Punters		87%	40 points	✓	32.2	0.80
		86%	34 points	✓	38.0	0.79
		85%	36 points	✓	36.0	0.76
		85%	35 points	✓	37.4	0.76
		84%	52 points	✓	20.0	0.75
		84%	38 points	✓	34.0	0.75
		84%	38 points	✓	33.9	0.74
		84%	33 points	✓	38.7	0.74
		82%	28 points	✓	44.3	0.71
		81%	26 points	✓	45.6	0.70
		80%	30 points	✓	42.2	0.68
		80%	40 points	✓	32.0	0.68
		80%	27 points	✓	45.5	0.67
		77%	25 points	✓	47.0	0.62
		75%	29 points	✓	42.9	0.59
		74%	24 points	✓	48.5	0.57
		67%	27 points	✓	45.1	0.42

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.