Melbourne v Essendon
2025-04-12 19:35:00 +10:00
Adelaide Oval

8.9

57

15.6

96

Essendon won by 39 points

IN

Lindsay

Turner

OUT

IN

Setterfield

Perkins

Caldwell

Edwards

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		52%	2 points	✗	41.4	-0.07
Aggregate		52%	2 points	✓	37.0	0.07
		66%	13 points	✓	25.7	0.40
		64%	12 points	✓	26.9	0.34
		62%	8 points	✓	31.0	0.32
		62%	12 points	✓	27.2	0.31
		59%	9 points	✓	30.0	0.24
		58%	5 points	✓	33.7	0.22
		58%	7 points	✓	32.0	0.21
		58%	7 points	✓	32.0	0.21
		57%	6 points	✓	32.8	0.19
		55%	5 points	✓	34.1	0.13
		54%	4 points	✓	35.2	0.12
		54%	4 points	✓	35.4	0.11
		54%	3 points	✓	36.0	0.10
		53%	3 points	✓	36.0	0.08
		53%	2 points	✓	37.1	0.07
		52%	3 points	✓	36.0	0.05
		52%	2 points	✓	37.3	0.05
		50%	1 point	✗	40.0	-0.01
Punters		51%	1 point	✗	39.7	-0.03
		52%	2 points	✗	40.7	-0.06
		53%	2 points	✗	41.5	-0.10
		54%	4 points	✗	42.5	-0.10
		55%	4 points	✗	43.4	-0.16
		61%	9 points	✗	47.5	-0.34
		64%	14 points	✗	52.6	-0.48
		66%	17 points	✗	56.0	-0.56

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.