Melbourne v Essendon
M.C.G.
13.6
84
10.7
67
Melbourne won by 17 points
IN
Petty
Gawn
OUT
IN
Kelly
Heppell
Laverde
Duursma
OUT
| Tip | Win % | Margin | ✓ | MAE | Bits | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
s10
|
|
54% | 3 points | ✗ | 20.0 | -0.11 |
|
Aggregate
|
|
51% | 1 point | ✓ | 15.8 | 0.03 |
|
|
71% | 15 points | ✓ | 2.5 | 0.50 |
|
|
62% | 16 points | ✓ | 1.0 | 0.32 |
|
|
59% | 7 points | ✓ | 10.0 | 0.23 |
|
|
58% | 8 points | ✓ | 9.0 | 0.21 |
|
|
58% | 8 points | ✓ | 9.2 | 0.21 |
|
|
57% | 7 points | ✓ | 10.0 | 0.19 |
|
|
57% | 6 points | ✓ | 11.4 | 0.18 |
|
|
56% | 6 points | ✓ | 11.0 | 0.16 |
|
|
55% | 3 points | ✓ | 14.0 | 0.14 |
|
|
55% | -1 points | ✓ | 18.4 | 0.13 |
|
|
55% | 4 points | ✓ | 13.0 | 0.13 |
|
|
54% | 5 points | ✓ | 12.0 | 0.11 |
|
|
53% | 5 points | ✓ | 11.7 | 0.10 |
|
|
53% | 5 points | ✓ | 12.4 | 0.09 |
|
|
53% | 3 points | ✓ | 14.0 | 0.08 |
|
|
52% | 2 points | ✓ | 15.1 | 0.06 |
|
|
52% | 2 points | ✓ | 15.2 | 0.06 |
|
|
51% | 1 point | ✓ | 15.9 | 0.04 |
|
|
51% | 1 point | ✓ | 16.4 | 0.02 |
|
|
51% | 0 points | ✓ | 16.5 | 0.02 |
|
|
50% | 0 points | ✗ | 17.4 | -0.01 |
|
|
54% | 4 points | ✗ | 20.6 | -0.12 |
|
|
60% | 8 points | ✗ | 24.8 | -0.30 |
|
|
60% | 7 points | ✗ | 24.4 | -0.33 |
|
Punters
|
|
61% | 10 points | ✗ | 26.9 | -0.35 |
|
|
62% | 12 points | ✗ | 29.0 | -0.40 |
|
|
62% | 11 points | ✗ | 27.5 | -0.40 |
|
|
70% | 17 points | ✗ | 34.0 | -0.74 |
"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.
"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.
Drawn games are counted as correct tips.