Hurling People Now Archives

Tip Leaderboard after Round 17

July 17, 2017July 17, 2017

The Tip Leaderboard has developed a bit of spread over the last few weeks! PlusSixOne has pulled away to a whopping four tips lead over the next best model, and it’s leading in Bits as well:

	Tips	Bits
PlusSixOne 5 8 4 7 6 6 3 5 6 7 3 3 2 8 5 7 7	92	9.5796
Punters 4 8 4 7 7 6 3 5 5 7 4 4 3 7 5 5 7	91	8.0603
5 7 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 7 3 2 3 7 3 5 7	88	3.6086
3 8 5 6 7 7 4 5 4 7 4 1 3 6 4 6 8	88	2.7082
5 7 5 6 6 6 3 5 5 7 3 3 3 6 4 6 7	87	4.6444
5 9 4 6 7 6 3 5 4 7 4 3 2 6 5 5 6	87	4.0108
Aggregate 5 8 4 6 7 6 3 5 5 7 3 3 2 6 4 5 7	86	7.3906
5 8 5 5 5 6 3 5 5 8 4 2 2 7 3 6 7	86	4.1921
4 7 4 6 7 6 3 5 5 7 4 3 2 6 3 5 6	83	6.1518

“Bits” from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely.

New to Squiggle is Graft Ratings! Head on over for beautiful tips and projections of all kinds. Graft is having what appears to be a typical model year so far, sitting solidly in the 86-88 tip bracket.

And The Arc can be justifiably feeling a little screwed, with the worst tip numbers despite very respectable Bits and MAE (stats available on the main leaderboard page).

Is Patrick Dangerfield having a better 2017 than 2016?

July 17, 2017July 17, 2017

Hurling People Now has one of those weekly previews that I never manage to catch before the weekend but this time it also has some musings on a player-based tipping model with a focus on the remarkable Mr Dangerfield:

So why is Geelong struggling? Good question.

According to Champion Data, Geelong have the equal most players inside the top 25 this year – tied with Richmond on three. However, beyond this elite talent, Geelong seemingly lacks for depth.

Source: Is Patrick Dangerfield having a better 2017 than 2016? | Hurling People Now

Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

June 22, 2017June 22, 2017

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

1. Midfield dominance

2. Stylistic superiority

3. Incredible efficiency

4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

What do we really know about Port Adelaide?

June 2, 2017June 2, 2017

Hurling People Now is another great AFL analysis site that’s definitely worth your time. My only complaint is that their weekly review goes up so close to the first game, unless you catch it right away, the round is half-over and everything has changed. You should do it earlier, HPN.

This week the focus is on Port Adelaide and why the analytical community is so high on them (even before last night’s impressive dismantling of Hawthorn):

The interesting thing, though, is the footy world doesn’t yet have much a track record for Port against teams in the vast middle tier of either the ladder or strength rankings. They have beaten the four current bottom sides and a 7th-placed Fremantle with a giant asterisk hovering over them. They’ve lost to the top three sides and then to 6th-placed West Coast in a truly weird game.

Source: What do we really know about Port Adelaide? | Hurling People Now

Are North and Hawthorn bad, or have they just faced a tough draw?

April 21, 2017April 21, 2017

From Hurling People Now:

Almost every credible (and non-credible) football journalist in the country has waxed lyrical about the decline of the Mighty Hawks, and the Considerably Less Mighty Roos. Both sides were finalists in 2016, but have gotten off to tough starts in 2017, a combined 0-8 through a month of footy.

Source: Are North and Hawthorn bad, or have they just faced a tough draw? | Hurling People Now

Don’t Stress If Your Team Is 0-2

April 7, 2017April 10, 2017

Hurling People Now and The Arc join forces to show that 0-2 is not a death sentence:

It’s quite possible to get out to a slow start and have a successful season, and the conditions seem to be as good in 2017 as they have been in any other recent year.

Source: The Arc/HPN Crossover: Don’t Stress If Your Team Is 0-2 | Hurling People Now

Who is your AFL club death-riding this year? | Hurling People Now

April 5, 2017April 10, 2017

The introduction of future draft pick trades in 2015 has given us, the footballing public/nerds, the wonderful spectacle of clubs quite literally taking bets on each other and then “death-riding” them the following year in the hopes of securing a better pick.

Source: Who is your AFL club death-riding this year? | Hurling People Now

More on the importance of the early rounds

April 2, 2017April 10, 2017

Two more articles on what early results really mean.

First a fantastic follow-up to the great piece last week from The Arc:

Here’s a version of that graph extended to the full home-and-away season. Cool, IMO. Using this chart, you can look up how many games your team is on pace to win for the year. For example – if your team has won 6 from their first 9 (a 6-3 record), then they’re on pace to win 13.9 for the year – enough to comfortably make the finals.

Source: More on the importance of the early rounds | The Arc

And here’s a particular examination of Round 1 upsets by Hurling People Now:

We have considered two classes of results: eventual finalists beaten in round one by teams who missed the finals, and eventual finalists beaten by other finalists who finished lower down the ladder.

Source: What does winning in round 1 mean?

		Wins	%	Range
1	Geelong	15.5	121%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	1–3
2	GWS	15.3	117%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	1–3
3	Melbourne	14.1	118%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	2–5
4	Port Adelaide	13.8	114%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	2–6
5	Sydney	13.6	111%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	4–7
6	Carlton	13.5	109%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	4–8
7	Brisbane Lions	12.7	116%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	5–10
8	Fremantle	12.7	111%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	7–9
9	Gold Coast	12.4	105%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	8–11
10	Collingwood	12.2	106%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	8–11
11	Western Bulldogs	11.6	108%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	10–12
12	Essendon	11.5	94%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	11–14
13	St Kilda	11.0	102%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	10–13
14	Adelaide	9.4	95%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	13–14
15	Hawthorn	7.6	84%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	15–16
16	Richmond	7.3	83%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	15–16
17	West Coast	6.3	72%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	17
18	North Melbourne	4.4	66%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	18

							PROJECTIONS
		W	L	D	%	History	Wins	Finish
1	GWS	5∗	–	–	144.0%		+10.3	2
2	Geelong	5∗	–	–	138.4%		+10.5	1
3	Sydney	4∗	1	–	126.9%		+9.6	5
4	Port Adelaide	4	2	–	121.2%		+9.8	4
5	Melbourne	4	2	–	118.5%		+10.1	3
6	Carlton	4∗	1	–	117.1%		+9.5	6
7	Essendon	4	2	–	92.7%		+7.5	12
8	Western Bulldogs	3	3	–	123.0%		+8.6	11
9	Fremantle	3∗	2	–	122.3%		+9.7	8
10	Gold Coast	3∗	2	–	105.5%		+9.4	9
11	Collingwood	3	3	–	97.6%		+9.2	10
12	Brisbane Lions	2∗	3	–	112.9%		+10.7	7
13	St Kilda	2	4	–	89.6%		+9.0	13
14	Adelaide	1	5	–	84.1%		+8.4	14
15	Richmond	1	5	–	79.5%		+6.3	16
16	West Coast	1∗	4	–	65.0%		+5.3	17
17	Hawthorn	–∗	5	–	64.8%		+7.6	15
18	North Melbourne	–∗	5	–	56.5%		+4.4	18

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
3 7 7 5 9 4 2	37	8.55	21.65	75.5%
3 7 6 4 9 4 2	35	10.03	22.60	71.4%
3 7 6 4 9 4 2	35	8.63	22.80	71.4%
1 7 7 4 9 4 2	34	8.69	22.76	69.4%
Punters 3 7 6 4 9 4 1	34	8.38	22.74	69.4%
3 7 6 4 9 4 1	34	8.07	23.43	69.4%
3 8 7 4 8 4 0	34	7.84	23.33	69.4%
3 7 6 4 8 4 2	34	7.80	23.92	69.4%
Aggregate 3 6 6 4 9 4 2	34	7.69	23.20	69.4%
3 5 6 6 8 4 2	34	6.73	22.90	69.4%
2 7 6 4 9 4 2	34	5.71	23.86	69.4%
3 6 6 4 8 4 2	33	7.87	24.09	67.3%
s10 3 6 6 4 8 4 2	33	7.87	23.51	67.3%
1 7 6 4 9 4 2	33	7.10	24.24	67.3%
3 6 6 5 8 4 1	33	7.04	23.83	67.3%
3 5 6 5 9 4 1	33	6.83	24.57	67.3%
2 7 6 4 8 4 2	33	6.18	24.41	67.3%
3 6 6 4 8 4 2	33	6.08	24.28	67.3%
3 7 5 4 8 4 2	33	5.48	25.03	67.3%
3 7 6 4 9 3 1	33	4.95	23.16	67.3%
3 7 6 4 6 4 2	32	10.50	24.08	65.3%
2 6 6 4 9 4 1	32	7.42	24.18	65.3%
2 7 8 4 7 4 0	32	6.83	23.72	65.3%
3 6 6 4 7 4 2	32	6.66	24.55	65.3%
3 6 6 3 8 4 2	32	6.56	24.37	65.3%
3 7 5 4 8 4 1	32	6.16	23.86	65.3%
3 6 6 4 9 4 0	32	6.03	24.00	65.3%
2 6 6 4 7 4 1	30	7.31	23.63	61.2%
1 5 6 4 9 4 1	30	6.09	24.62	61.2%
1 7 6 5 5 4 1	29	3.25	26.51	59.2%