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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Brisbane Lions 15.5 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 14.4 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
3
 Geelong 14.1 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–8
4
 Western Bulldogs 14.0 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–10
5
 Gold Coast 13.7 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–7
6
 Adelaide 13.6 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
7
 Collingwood 13.2 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
8
 Sydney 12.9 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–10
9
 GWS 12.9 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–10
10
 Fremantle 12.8 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–10
11
 St Kilda 10.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
12
 Melbourne 10.0 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
13
 Port Adelaide 10.4 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Carlton 9.3 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 North Melbourne 8.4 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–16
16
 Essendon 7.6 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–17
17
 Richmond 7.4 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–18
18
 West Coast 6.6 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 2 games of Round 0, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 1 – – 191.3%
+11.9
8
2
 Gold Coast 1 – – 181.2%
+12.7
5
3
 Geelong – 1 – 55.2%
+14.1
3
4
 Carlton – 1 – 52.3%
+9.3
14
5
 Adelaide –∗ – –
+13.6
6
6
 Brisbane Lions –∗ – –
+15.5
1
7
 Collingwood –∗ – –
+13.2
7
8
 Essendon –∗ – –
+7.6
16
9
 Fremantle –∗ – –
+12.8
10
10
 GWS –∗ – –
+12.9
9
11
 Hawthorn –∗ – –
+14.4
2
12
 Melbourne –∗ – –
+10.0
12
13
 North Melbourne –∗ – –
+8.4
15
14
 Port Adelaide –∗ – –
+10.4
13
15
 Richmond –∗ – –
+7.4
17
16
 St Kilda –∗ – –
+10.3
11
17
 West Coast –∗ – –
+6.6
18
18
 Western Bulldogs –∗ – –
+14.0
4

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
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2

2 0.9452 0.95 41.5050 41.51 100.0000 100.0%
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2

2 0.7035 0.70 40.5000 40.50 100.0000 100.0%
Glicko Ratings

2

2 0.6238 0.62 48.1150 48.12 100.0000 100.0%
AFLalytics

2

2 0.5912 0.59 48.3850 48.38 100.0000 100.0%
Drop Kick Data

2

2 0.5687 0.57 49.4750 49.48 100.0000 100.0%
Wheelo Ratings

2

2 0.4810 0.48 51.2500 51.25 100.0000 100.0%
footycharts

2

2 0.4353 0.44 52.5050 52.51 100.0000 100.0%
Matter of Stats

2

2 0.4045 0.40 52.9900 52.99 100.0000 100.0%
Holy Grail Ratings

2

2 0.1970 0.20 54.1700 54.17 100.0000 100.0%
In The Game

1

1 0.5190 0.52 47.7700 47.77 50.0000 50.0%
The Cruncher

1

1 0.4993 0.50 51.5250 51.52 50.0000 50.0%
s10

1

1 0.3569 0.36 53.1550 53.16 50.0000 50.0%
Hyperion

1

1 0.3505 0.35 52.0000 52.00 50.0000 50.0%
PlusSixOne

1

1 0.3067 0.31 52.0500 52.05 50.0000 50.0%
Aggregate

1

1 0.2940 0.29 54.1150 54.12 50.0000 50.0%
Don't Blame the Data

1

1 0.2519 0.25 55.8750 55.88 50.0000 50.0%
What Snoo Thinks

1

1 0.2166 0.22 54.5650 54.56 50.0000 50.0%
Live Ladders

1

1 0.2136 0.21 56.0000 56.00 50.0000 50.0%
Elo Predicts!

1

1 0.2113 0.21 62.0000 62.00 50.0000 50.0%
Stattraction

1

1 0.1712 0.17 56.6300 56.63 50.0000 50.0%
Graft

1

1 0.1662 0.17 55.5000 55.50 50.0000 50.0%
The Wooden Finger

1

1 0.1490 0.15 56.0000 56.00 50.0000 50.0%
Informed Stats

1

1 0.1158 0.12 57.0000 57.00 50.0000 50.0%
AFL Scorigami

1

1 0.0999 0.10 57.5250 57.52 50.0000 50.0%
Massey Ratings

1

1 0.0405 0.04 58.0000 58.00 50.0000 50.0%
Winnable

1

1 0.0346 0.03 58.9250 58.92 50.0000 50.0%
HBin

1

1 -0.0197 0.02 59.7500 59.75 50.0000 50.0%
The Footycast

1

1 -0.0791 0.08 59.2000 59.20 50.0000 50.0%
AFL Lab

1

1 -0.1012 0.10 61.7200 61.72 50.0000 50.0%
ZaphBot

1

1 -0.2475 0.25 57.0000 57.00 50.0000 50.0%
Squiggle

0

0 -0.1106 0.11 61.3800 61.38 0.0000 0.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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