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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.7 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.5 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Adelaide 14.9 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.1 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.3 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–8
6
 Gold Coast 14.5 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
7
 Hawthorn 14.1 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
8
 Fremantle 13.6 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
9
 GWS 12.6 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 Carlton 11.3 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Sydney 10.2 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Port Adelaide 10.2 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 St Kilda 9.3 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Melbourne 9.1 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Essendon 8.9 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.2 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.4 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 3.1 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 2 games of Round 15, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 11∗ 2 – 134.0%
+6.7
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 10 4 1 113.4%
+4.6
4
3
 Geelong 10 5 – 127.5%
+6.5
2
4
 Adelaide 9∗ 5 – 135.2%
+5.9
3
5
 Hawthorn 9∗ 5 – 111.6%
+5.1
7
6
 Fremantle 9∗ 5 – 110.0%
+4.6
8
7
 Gold Coast 8∗ 4 – 123.2%
+6.5
6
8
 GWS 8∗ 6 – 107.6%
+4.6
9
9
 Western Bulldogs 7∗ 6 – 127.7%
+7.3
5
10
 Carlton 6∗ 7 – 106.7%
+5.3
10
11
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 7 – 84.7%
+4.2
12
12
 Essendon 6∗ 8 – 77.5%
+2.9
15
13
 Sydney 5∗ 8 – 90.1%
+5.2
11
14
 St Kilda 5∗ 8 – 87.8%
+4.3
13
15
 Melbourne 5∗ 9 – 87.1%
+4.1
14
16
 North Melbourne 3∗ 9 1 80.6%
+2.7
16
17
 Richmond 3∗ 10 – 69.4%
+2.4
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 13 – 65.1%
+2.1
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 1

91 19.88 27.34 74.6%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 1

90 21.08 26.91 73.8%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 1

90 19.37 27.21 73.8%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 1

90 18.24 27.81 73.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 1

89 21.27 27.06 73.0%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 1

89 20.04 27.82 73.0%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 1

89 19.39 27.10 73.0%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 1

89 17.70 27.56 73.0%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 1

88 19.30 27.14 72.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 1

88 18.42 28.80 72.1%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 1

88 18.40 28.50 72.1%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 1

87 21.42 26.79 71.3%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 1

86 18.81 27.36 70.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 1

85 20.16 27.51 69.7%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 1

85 20.02 26.84 69.7%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 1

85 17.63 28.01 69.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 1

85 17.13 28.03 69.7%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 1

85 16.44 27.39 69.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 1

84 16.25 28.10 68.9%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 1

83 18.63 26.89 68.0%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 1

83 17.25 28.36 68.0%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 1

83 11.62 29.66 68.0%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1

81 18.18 27.76 66.4%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 1

80 15.01 29.12 65.6%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 1

79 9.50 29.38 64.8%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 1

78 16.29 28.00 63.9%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 1

78 14.14 29.11 63.9%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 1

78 13.33 28.63 63.9%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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