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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.7 143%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 16.4 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 16.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.1 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Adelaide 14.8 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 Geelong 13.9 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Melbourne 14.1 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Collingwood 13.3 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Western Bulldogs 13.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 St Kilda 11.1 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 GWS 10.8 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Carlton 10.8 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
13
 North Melbourne 9.5 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Gold Coast 8.7 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
15
 Port Adelaide 8.3 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 5.3 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Essendon 2.9 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Richmond 3.1 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 4 games of Round 20, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 17 2 – 146.0%
+2.7
1
2
 Sydney 13∗ 5 – 128.3%
+3.4
2
3
 Hawthorn 12∗ 5 1 118.4%
+3.5
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 12∗ 6 – 117.8%
+3.1
4
5
 Adelaide 12 7 – 113.7%
+2.8
5
6
 Melbourne 12 7 – 107.8%
+2.1
7
7
 Collingwood 11 7 1 107.7%
+1.8
8
8
 Geelong 11 8 – 116.5%
+2.9
6
9
 Western Bulldogs 11∗ 7 – 93.2%
+2.5
9
10
 Carlton 9 10 – 92.4%
+1.8
12
11
 St Kilda 8∗ 10 – 104.0%
+3.1
10
12
 GWS 8∗ 10 – 101.3%
+2.8
11
13
 North Melbourne 8∗ 10 – 90.9%
+1.5
13
14
 Gold Coast 7 12 – 94.8%
+1.7
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 12 – 99.2%
+2.3
15
16
 West Coast 4 15 – 70.1%
+1.3
16
17
 Essendon 2∗ 16 – 67.9%
+0.9
17
18
 Richmond 2∗ 16 – 61.7%
+1.1
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 2

126 39.2690 39.27 24.7552 24.76 75.9036 75.9%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 3

125 41.2123 41.21 25.3012 25.30 75.3012 75.3%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 3

124 38.0356 38.04 24.4251 24.43 74.6988 74.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 2

124 27.0513 27.05 24.9310 24.93 74.6988 74.7%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 3

122 40.5342 40.53 24.8219 24.82 73.4940 73.5%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 3

122 39.3298 39.33 24.9399 24.94 73.4940 73.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 3

121 40.1503 40.15 24.9513 24.95 72.8916 72.9%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 3

121 38.3835 38.38 24.8145 24.81 72.8916 72.9%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 3

121 35.5901 35.59 25.4036 25.40 72.8916 72.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 3

120 41.6285 41.63 25.1569 25.16 72.2892 72.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 3

120 38.0784 38.08 25.5181 25.52 72.2892 72.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 3

120 35.6348 35.63 25.2409 25.24 72.2892 72.3%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 3

119 38.8143 38.81 26.0723 26.07 71.6867 71.7%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 3

119 36.4400 36.44 25.7174 25.72 71.6867 71.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 3

118 39.0447 39.04 25.4414 25.44 71.0843 71.1%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 3

118 37.9040 37.90 24.8616 24.86 71.0843 71.1%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 3

117 37.6649 37.66 24.9114 24.91 70.4819 70.5%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 3

117 36.7858 36.79 25.1283 25.13 70.4819 70.5%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 2

117 34.1161 34.12 25.1572 25.16 70.4819 70.5%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 3

117 30.7831 30.78 25.3922 25.39 70.4819 70.5%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 2

117 29.2105 29.21 26.0000 26.00 †1 70.9091 70.9%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 2

116 34.2750 34.27 26.6085 26.61 †2 70.7317 70.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 3

116 34.0672 34.07 25.2663 25.27 69.8795 69.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 3

114 35.6118 35.61 25.4518 25.45 68.6747 68.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 2

113 36.0046 36.00 26.4764 26.48 68.0723 68.1%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 3

113 35.0158 35.02 26.4217 26.42 68.0723 68.1%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 3

113 30.0121 30.01 26.4406 26.44 68.0723 68.1%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 3

112 33.2530 33.25 25.3851 25.39 67.4699 67.5%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 3

112 32.4020 32.40 26.5602 26.56 67.4699 67.5%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 3

112 32.1344 32.13 25.8089 25.81 †9 71.3376 71.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 3

101 34.4765 34.48 26.0248 26.02 †25 71.6312 71.6%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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