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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.0 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 18.0 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Hawthorn 16.0 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Geelong 15.0 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Adelaide 15.0 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Melbourne 15.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 13.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Carlton 12.5 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 GWS 10.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Gold Coast 9.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.0 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 7.0 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.0 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.0 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.0 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 26, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 4 – 137.2%
+0.0
1
2
 Sydney 18 5 – 136.1%
+-0.0
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16 7 – 121.7%
+-0.0
3
4
 Hawthorn 15 6 2 120.1%
+0.0
4
5
 Geelong 15 8 – 122.3%
+-0.0
5
6
 Adelaide 15 8 – 117.3%
+-0.0
6
7
 Melbourne 15 8 – 109.6%
+0.0
7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13 9 1 95.4%
+-0.0
8
9
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.4%
+0.0
9
10
 Carlton 12 10 1 101.5%
+-0.0
10
11
 St Kilda 10 13 – 102.8%
+0.0
11
12
 GWS 10 13 – 98.9%
+0.0
12
13
 Gold Coast 9 14 – 94.5%
+-0.0
13
14
 North Melbourne 9 14 – 88.8%
+0.0
14
15
 Port Adelaide 7 16 – 88.0%
+-0.0
15
16
 West Coast 4 19 – 69.2%
+0.0
16
17
 Richmond 3 20 – 62.5%
+0.0
17
18
 Essendon 2 21 – 64.6%
+0.0
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 5 0 1

158 50.5679 50.57 25.2779 25.28 74.8815 74.9%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 6 0 0

157 34.5321 34.53 25.5564 25.56 74.4076 74.4%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 6 0 1

156 53.3502 53.35 25.0683 25.07 73.9336 73.9%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6 1 1

156 52.4810 52.48 25.2023 25.20 73.9336 73.9%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 6 0 1

155 51.1924 51.19 25.9858 25.99 73.4597 73.5%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 0 1

155 50.7335 50.73 24.7866 24.79 73.4597 73.5%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 5 0 1

155 48.3330 48.33 25.4770 25.48 73.4597 73.5%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0 1

154 50.6689 50.67 25.1316 25.13 72.9858 73.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 5 0 1

153 52.0760 52.08 24.9530 24.95 72.5118 72.5%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 6 0 1

153 49.7136 49.71 25.8436 25.84 72.5118 72.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6

153 48.8410 48.84 25.6301 25.63 †4 73.9130 73.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 1

152 54.2986 54.30 25.5840 25.58 72.0379 72.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0 1

152 51.5603 51.56 26.2938 26.29 72.0379 72.0%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 6 1 1

151 39.7584 39.76 26.3667 26.37 †1 71.9048 71.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 1

150 52.0880 52.09 25.7243 25.72 71.0900 71.1%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 1 1

150 49.6948 49.69 25.3296 25.33 71.0900 71.1%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 7 0 1

150 48.0197 48.02 25.4156 25.42 71.0900 71.1%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 6 1 1

150 45.7607 45.76 26.2070 26.21 71.0900 71.1%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 6 1 1

150 41.0282 41.03 25.7858 25.79 71.0900 71.1%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 1

149 49.8944 49.89 25.3955 25.40 70.6161 70.6%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 5 0 1

149 48.8851 48.89 25.6247 25.62 70.6161 70.6%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 5 1 0

149 46.1236 46.12 25.0690 25.07 †1 70.9524 71.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 6 0 1

148 49.7423 49.74 26.0811 26.08 †5 71.8447 71.8%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 6 1 1

146 48.8005 48.80 26.4857 26.49 69.1943 69.2%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 5 1 1

146 46.2243 46.22 26.5498 26.55 69.1943 69.2%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 5 1 1

146 46.1471 46.15 26.4550 26.45 69.1943 69.2%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 6 1 1

146 43.1517 43.15 26.0792 26.08 †9 72.2772 72.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 5 1 0

145 45.5195 45.52 26.0142 26.01 68.7204 68.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 6 0 1

144 40.0837 40.08 26.9888 26.99 68.2464 68.2%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 6 0 1

142 42.6150 42.62 26.2104 26.21 67.2986 67.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 6 1 1

134 46.1618 46.16 26.3602 26.36 †25 72.0430 72.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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