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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 16.3 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
2
 Brisbane Lions 16.1 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Geelong 15.4 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–4
4
 Hawthorn 14.9 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.7 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–8
6
 Adelaide 13.9 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Gold Coast 13.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 GWS 12.4 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
9
 Sydney 11.7 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 Carlton 11.1 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–13
11
 St Kilda 11.3 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
12
 Fremantle 11.0 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Port Adelaide 10.7 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Essendon 10.1 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Melbourne 8.3 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 Richmond 6.1 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 North Melbourne 5.5 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 3.5 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 9, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 7 2 – 131.0%
+9.3
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 7∗ 1 – 114.4%
+9.1
2
3
 Hawthorn 6∗ 2 – 125.6%
+8.9
4
4
 Gold Coast 5∗ 2 – 140.4%
+8.8
7
5
 Adelaide 5∗ 3 – 131.8%
+8.9
6
6
 Western Bulldogs 5∗ 3 – 127.1%
+9.7
5
7
 Geelong 5∗ 3 – 117.4%
+10.4
3
8
 GWS 4∗ 4 – 115.0%
+8.4
8
9
 Fremantle 4 5 – 95.7%
+7.0
12
10
 St Kilda 4∗ 4 – 94.6%
+7.3
11
11
 Essendon 4∗ 3 – 88.6%
+6.1
14
12
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 4 – 87.9%
+6.7
13
13
 Carlton 3∗ 5 – 108.6%
+8.1
10
14
 Sydney 3∗ 5 – 97.2%
+8.7
9
15
 Melbourne 3∗ 5 – 81.6%
+5.3
15
16
 Richmond 2∗ 6 – 63.4%
+4.1
16
17
 North Melbourne 1∗ 7 – 76.4%
+4.5
17
18
 West Coast –∗ 8 – 57.7%
+3.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 1

57 16.50 27.74 79.2%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 1

57 15.01 27.68 79.2%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 1

56 16.23 27.33 77.8%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 1

56 16.19 28.33 77.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 1

55 15.82 27.65 76.4%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 1

55 14.79 27.02 76.4%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 1

55 14.58 27.73 76.4%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 1

55 14.58 27.64 76.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 1

54 16.91 26.65 75.0%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 1

54 15.00 28.47 75.0%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 1

54 14.44 27.24 75.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 1

53 14.83 29.18 73.6%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 1

53 14.71 28.42 73.6%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 1

53 14.15 28.34 73.6%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 1

53 13.73 28.75 73.6%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 1

53 12.98 28.91 73.6%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 1

53 10.43 27.64 73.6%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 1

52 12.29 28.17 72.2%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 1

52 11.68 28.73 72.2%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 1

51 15.77 26.88 70.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 1

51 15.40 26.57 70.8%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 1

50 12.20 29.33 69.4%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 1

50 6.68 31.32 69.4%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 1

49 13.40 28.86 68.1%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 1

49 12.48 29.71 68.1%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 1

49 10.56 29.51 68.1%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 1

48 11.95 29.20 66.7%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 0

48 6.33 31.27 66.7%

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