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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 17.2 146%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Hawthorn 17.0 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Fremantle 15.2 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.5 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Geelong 14.2 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
6
 Western Bulldogs 13.2 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
7
 Collingwood 12.7 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
8
 Gold Coast 12.5 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
9
 Adelaide 12.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
10
 Melbourne 12.1 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–11
11
 GWS 11.4 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–13
12
 St Kilda 10.9 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–13
13
 Port Adelaide 10.1 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 North Melbourne 10.1 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Carlton 7.6 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 West Coast 6.6 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
17
 Essendon 6.0 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 Richmond 3.7 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 7, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 6 1 – 178.1%
+11.2
1
2
 Fremantle 6 1 – 137.6%
+9.2
3
3
 Hawthorn 6 1 – 124.5%
+11.0
2
4
 Melbourne 5 2 – 102.8%
+7.1
10
5
 Brisbane Lions 4 3 – 118.8%
+10.5
4
6
 North Melbourne 4 3 – 115.9%
+6.1
14
7
 Gold Coast 4 3 – 114.4%
+8.5
8
8
 Collingwood 4 3 – 110.2%
+8.7
7
9
 Geelong 4 3 – 108.6%
+10.2
5
10
 Western Bulldogs 4 3 – 91.8%
+9.2
6
11
 Port Adelaide 3 4 – 112.5%
+7.1
13
12
 St Kilda 3 4 – 110.1%
+7.9
12
13
 Adelaide 3 4 – 96.1%
+9.1
9
14
 GWS 3 4 – 89.8%
+8.4
11
15
 West Coast 2 5 – 55.8%
+4.6
16
16
 Carlton 1 6 – 80.3%
+6.6
15
17
 Essendon 1 6 – 72.9%
+5.0
17
18
 Richmond – 7 – 54.2%
+3.7
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8

52 17.3698 17.37 26.1637 26.16 82.5397 82.5%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8

51 17.7634 17.76 27.3267 27.33 80.9524 81.0%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8

51 11.5848 11.58 27.0454 27.05 80.9524 81.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7

49 16.3391 16.34 27.5759 27.58 77.7778 77.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8

48 18.3089 18.31 27.5203 27.52 76.1905 76.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7

48 17.6022 17.60 28.6273 28.63 76.1905 76.2%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7

48 17.5346 17.53 27.4829 27.48 76.1905 76.2%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8

48 17.4061 17.41 26.8678 26.87 76.1905 76.2%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7

48 17.3976 17.40 27.4437 27.44 76.1905 76.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8

48 15.9835 15.98 29.1429 29.14 76.1905 76.2%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7

48 15.8876 15.89 27.6819 27.68 76.1905 76.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8

48 14.6937 14.69 27.6852 27.69 76.1905 76.2%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7

47 16.7075 16.71 27.7121 27.71 74.6032 74.6%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8

47 15.6973 15.70 27.9070 27.91 74.6032 74.6%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7

47 15.2558 15.26 28.7551 28.76 74.6032 74.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8

47 10.9095 10.91 29.4127 29.41 74.6032 74.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7

46 14.9867 14.99 28.8095 28.81 73.0159 73.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7

46 14.9501 14.95 29.2540 29.25 73.0159 73.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7

46 12.5813 12.58 28.5937 28.59 73.0159 73.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7

45 15.7643 15.76 29.0884 29.09 71.4286 71.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8

45 15.6776 15.68 28.3244 28.32 71.4286 71.4%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8

44 15.1495 15.15 28.1076 28.11 69.8413 69.8%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7

44 13.9366 13.94 29.9841 29.98 69.8413 69.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8

44 13.8214 13.82 28.1344 28.13 69.8413 69.8%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7

43 14.4685 14.47 29.0332 29.03 68.2540 68.3%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7

43 13.7290 13.73 31.0000 31.00 68.2540 68.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7

43 12.3634 12.36 28.8333 28.83 68.2540 68.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7

43 11.7605 11.76 29.1762 29.18 68.2540 68.3%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7

39 11.1638 11.16 29.4444 29.44 61.9048 61.9%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7

37 8.7730 8.77 30.2963 30.30 †9 68.5185 68.5%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8

27 10.4181 10.42 32.5789 32.58 †25 71.0526 71.1%

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