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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.5 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.7 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.7 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.5 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
5
 Melbourne 15.6 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Geelong 14.8 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Adelaide 14.7 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
8
 Collingwood 13.8 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.8 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 Carlton 12.0 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.6 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 GWS 10.2 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 North Melbourne 9.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Gold Coast 8.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Port Adelaide 6.9 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.4 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.1 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.4 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 4 games of Round 23, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 3 – 142.5%
+0.5
1
2
 Sydney 16∗ 5 – 134.0%
+1.7
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 15 7 – 119.5%
+0.5
4
4
 Hawthorn 14∗ 6 1 118.2%
+1.2
3
5
 Geelong 14 8 – 120.2%
+0.8
6
6
 Adelaide 14 8 – 115.1%
+0.7
7
7
 Melbourne 14∗ 7 – 107.6%
+1.6
5
8
 Collingwood 12∗ 8 1 106.4%
+1.3
8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12∗ 9 – 93.9%
+0.8
9
10
 Carlton 11∗ 10 – 99.6%
+1.0
10
11
 St Kilda 10 12 – 104.2%
+0.6
11
12
 GWS 9∗ 12 – 98.9%
+1.2
12
13
 North Melbourne 9 13 – 90.7%
+0.2
13
14
 Gold Coast 8 14 – 93.2%
+0.4
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 15 – 90.2%
+0.9
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 17 – 71.5%
+0.4
16
17
 Richmond 3 19 – 62.8%
+0.1
17
18
 Essendon 2∗ 19 – 63.2%
+0.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 4

147 48.4402 48.44 24.8792 24.88 76.1658 76.2%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 4

146 32.9292 32.93 25.2113 25.21 75.6477 75.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 4

144 50.1769 50.18 24.8966 24.90 74.6114 74.6%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 4

144 45.5980 45.60 25.2600 25.26 74.6114 74.6%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 4

143 49.2519 49.25 24.9459 24.95 74.0933 74.1%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 4

143 48.5805 48.58 25.7772 25.78 74.0933 74.1%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 4

143 47.6925 47.69 24.4567 24.46 74.0933 74.1%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 4

142 49.2569 49.26 24.9083 24.91 73.5751 73.6%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 4

142 47.5539 47.55 24.9740 24.97 73.5751 73.6%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 4

142 45.5025 45.50 25.5024 25.50 73.5751 73.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 4

141 46.7074 46.71 25.5803 25.58 73.0570 73.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 4

140 50.9325 50.93 25.4727 25.47 72.5389 72.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 4

140 48.4981 48.50 26.1192 26.12 72.5389 72.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 4

138 48.6203 48.62 25.4723 25.47 71.5026 71.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 4

138 47.2193 47.22 25.3075 25.31 71.5026 71.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 4

138 44.7447 44.74 25.9181 25.92 71.5026 71.5%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 4

138 43.4893 43.49 25.1466 25.15 71.5026 71.5%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 4

138 36.6662 36.67 26.2396 26.24 †1 71.8750 71.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 4

137 47.2143 47.21 25.0187 25.02 70.9845 71.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 4

137 46.8085 46.81 25.2080 25.21 70.9845 71.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 4

137 44.6300 44.63 25.2591 25.26 70.9845 71.0%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 4

137 38.7008 38.70 25.6523 25.65 70.9845 71.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 4

136 45.4384 45.44 26.1958 26.20 †3 71.5789 71.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 4

134 43.3105 43.31 25.8187 25.82 69.4301 69.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 4

134 43.2383 43.24 26.4870 26.49 69.4301 69.4%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 4

134 41.8894 41.89 26.8497 26.85 69.4301 69.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 4

133 45.6929 45.69 26.3033 26.30 68.9119 68.9%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 4

133 39.5565 39.56 26.1359 26.14 †9 72.2826 72.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 4

132 37.3992 37.40 26.8608 26.86 68.3938 68.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 4

131 39.9593 39.96 25.9740 25.97 67.8756 67.9%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 4

121 42.6823 42.68 26.3512 26.35 †25 72.0238 72.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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