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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 16.8 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Port Adelaide 15.3 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Geelong 14.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 GWS 14.9 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.2 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Western Bulldogs 13.8 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Hawthorn 13.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Carlton 13.7 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
9
 Fremantle 12.8 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 Collingwood 12.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
11
 Essendon 11.3 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 Gold Coast 10.8 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
13
 Melbourne 11.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 St Kilda 10.3 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Adelaide 8.4 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 5.0 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 North Melbourne 3.0 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Richmond 2.0 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 8 games of Round 24, 2024.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 17 6 – 126.7%
+-0.2
1
2
 Port Adelaide 15 7 – 114.2%
+0.3
2
3
 Geelong 15 8 – 112.2%
+-0.1
3
4
 GWS 15 8 – 109.1%
+-0.1
4
5
 Brisbane Lions 14 8 1 121.9%
+-0.3
5
6
 Western Bulldogs 14 9 – 125.1%
+-0.2
6
7
 Hawthorn 14 9 – 118.5%
+-0.2
7
8
 Carlton 13 10 – 110.2%
+0.7
8
9
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.5%
+-0.4
10
10
 Fremantle 12 9 1 113.7%
+0.3
9
11
 Essendon 11 11 1 93.5%
+-0.2
11
12
 St Kilda 11 12 – 99.4%
+-0.7
14
13
 Gold Coast 11 12 – 99.1%
+-0.2
12
14
 Melbourne 11 12 – 98.5%
+0.0
13
15
 Adelaide 8 14 1 99.1%
+-0.1
15
16
 West Coast 5 18 – 68.1%
+-0.0
16
17
 North Melbourne 3 20 – 63.5%
+-0.0
17
18
 Richmond 2 21 – 63.7%
+0.0
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Live Ladders

3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2

152 32.87 26.50 72.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2

140 33.48 26.64 66.4%
AFLalytics

3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2

140 29.73 27.31 66.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2

140 26.53 27.39 66.4%
The Wooden Finger

3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3

140 24.29 27.20 66.4%
Graft

2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3

139 27.65 27.34 65.9%
Data by Josh

3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9

138 32.10 26.50†8 68.0%
s10

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2

138 30.83 26.82 65.4%
Hyperion

1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2

138 27.38 27.22 65.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2

138 24.60 27.32 65.4%
Drop Kick Data

3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2

137 29.26 27.02 64.9%
Massey Ratings

2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2

137 27.62 26.89 64.9%
Matter of Stats

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2

137 27.55 27.41 64.9%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2

137 22.52 28.16 64.9%
Squiggle

2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2

136 29.25 26.89 64.5%
FMI

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2

136 27.51 27.30†1 64.8%
What Snoo Thinks

3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2

136 27.50 27.25 64.5%
Cheap Stats

1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2

136 26.49 27.57 64.5%
The Footycast

3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3

136 25.53 27.00 64.5%
Aggregate

3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2

135 29.92 26.78 64.0%
Punters

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2

135 29.02 26.92 64.0%
AFL Lab

3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2

135 27.94 26.77 64.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2

135 26.80 26.96 64.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2

134 27.26 27.37 63.5%
PlusSixOne

1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2

134 16.94 28.76 63.5%
Winnable

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2

133 28.13 27.40 63.0%
The Cruncher

3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3

131 27.28 27.21†2 62.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2

131 24.55 27.85 62.1%
Stattraction

1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2

131 23.85 27.65 62.1%
ZaphBot

3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3

130 27.37 26.95 61.6%

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