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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 18.5 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.5 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Adelaide 15.6 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.4 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Western Bulldogs 15.1 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
6
 Gold Coast 14.8 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
7
 Hawthorn 14.7 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 GWS 13.7 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Fremantle 13.5 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Sydney 11.0 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Port Adelaide 9.8 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 Carlton 9.1 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
13
 Melbourne 8.6 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
14
 St Kilda 8.4 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 Essendon 8.4 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.3 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 4.7 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 West Coast 2.5 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 17, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 14 2 – 139.0%
+4.5
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 11 4 1 114.7%
+3.9
4
3
 Adelaide 11 5 – 138.2%
+4.6
3
4
 Geelong 11 5 – 132.3%
+5.5
2
5
 Hawthorn 11 5 – 118.9%
+3.7
7
6
 Western Bulldogs 10 6 – 133.2%
+5.1
5
7
 Gold Coast 10∗ 5 – 122.5%
+4.8
6
8
 GWS 10 6 – 112.0%
+3.7
8
9
 Fremantle 10 6 – 108.8%
+3.5
9
10
 Sydney 7 9 – 93.4%
+4.0
10
11
 Port Adelaide 7 9 – 87.6%
+2.8
11
12
 Carlton 6 10 – 96.1%
+3.1
12
13
 Essendon 6∗ 9 – 76.4%
+2.4
15
14
 Melbourne 5 11 – 86.7%
+3.6
13
15
 St Kilda 5 11 – 85.7%
+3.4
14
16
 North Melbourne 4 11 1 77.3%
+1.8
16
17
 Richmond 3 13 – 63.0%
+1.7
17
18
 West Coast 1 15 – 63.9%
+1.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9

110 29.26 26.29 76.9%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9

108 28.35 26.19 75.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9

108 28.15 27.09 75.5%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9

108 28.07 26.31 75.5%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8

108 25.59 26.93 75.5%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9

107 29.85 26.15 74.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9

107 29.25 26.02 74.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9

107 29.06 27.45 74.8%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9

107 28.06 26.10 74.8%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9

107 28.05 26.14 74.8%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9

105 30.59 25.68 73.4%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8

105 28.79 27.16 73.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9

104 26.12 26.80 72.7%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9

103 28.96 25.88 72.0%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9

103 27.63 26.52 72.0%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9

103 26.79 26.78 72.0%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9

103 25.76 26.20 72.0%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9

103 25.12 27.04 72.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9

102 29.44 25.69 71.3%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9

102 28.13 26.72 71.3%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9

102 19.82 28.41 71.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8

99 27.37 26.80 69.2%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8

99 25.41 27.56 69.2%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9

99 23.98 27.82 69.2%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9

97 25.23 26.90 67.8%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9

97 14.11 29.17 67.8%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9

95 22.56 27.95 66.4%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8

95 22.41 28.22 66.4%

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