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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
Melbourne 15.7 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Geelong 15.2 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–3
3
Brisbane Lions 15.0 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–5
4
Sydney 14.3 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–6
5
Fremantle 14.3 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–6
6
Carlton 14.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–8
7
Richmond 13.3 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–8
8
Collingwood 13.4 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–10
9
Western Bulldogs 12.4 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
10
Gold Coast 11.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–12
11
St Kilda 11.9 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–11
12
Port Adelaide 10.9 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
13
Adelaide 8.4 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
14
Hawthorn 8.0 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
15
GWS 7.0 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
16
Essendon 6.2 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
West Coast 3.5 60%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
18
North Melbourne 2.3 57%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After Round 15, 2022.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Melbourne 11 3 – 139.2%
+4.7
1
2
Geelong 10 4 – 125.6%
+5.2
2
3
Brisbane Lions 10 4 – 124.9%
+5.0
3
4
Fremantle 10 4 – 122.6%
+4.3
5
5
Carlton 10 4 – 114.6%
+4.1
6
6
Sydney 9 5 – 119.5%
+5.3
4
7
Collingwood 9 5 – 106.0%
+4.4
8
8
Western Bulldogs 8 6 – 120.9%
+4.4
9
9
Richmond 8 6 – 116.2%
+5.3
7
10
St Kilda 8 6 – 107.3%
+3.9
11
11
Gold Coast 7 7 – 110.5%
+4.9
10
12
Port Adelaide 7 7 – 105.1%
+3.9
12
13
Adelaide 5 9 – 85.5%
+3.4
13
14
GWS 4 10 – 90.9%
+3.0
15
15
Hawthorn 4 10 – 85.6%
+4.0
14
16
Essendon 3 11 – 78.6%
+3.2
16
17
West Coast 2 12 – 55.8%
+1.5
17
18
North Melbourne 1 13 – 52.2%
+1.3
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
PlusSixOne

5 6 7 6 7 8 5 7 7 6 8 5 5 5 8

95 16.88 26.84 75.4%
s10

5 6 8 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 7 4 5 4 8

92 21.24 25.66 73.0%
Massey Ratings

5 6 6 6 7 8 5 7 7 6 8 3 5 5 8

92 20.22 26.23 73.0%
Live Ladders

5 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 4 5 5 7

91 22.76 25.79 72.2%
AFLalytics

4 6 6 6 6 8 6 7 7 6 7 4 5 5 8

91 22.59 25.11 72.2%
AFL Lab

4 6 7 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 7 3 5 5 8

91 22.54 25.72 72.2%
The Cruncher

6 6 7 7 5 7 6 7 6 6 6 4 5 5 8

91 17.54 27.26 72.2%
Data by Josh

5 6 7 5 7 8 5 8 6 6 7 3 5 5 7

90 24.13 24.87 71.4%
Squiggle

5 4 7 6 7 8 5 6 6 7 7 5 5 4 8

90 21.46 25.43 71.4%
Graft

5 6 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 4 5 5 8

90 19.11 26.20 71.4%
AFL Scorigami

5 7 7 6 6 8 5 7 7 6 7 3 5 4 7

90 18.86 26.47 71.4%
The Flag

6 6 6 4 7 8 6 7 7 7 7 4 4 4 6

89 16.76 26.37 70.6%
Hyperion

5 6 7 5 6 7 5 7 6 6 7 4 5 5 8

89 16.22 26.85 70.6%
Aggregate

5 5 7 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 3 5 4 8

88 20.55 25.70 69.8%
Glicko Ratings

4 5 7 5 6 7 5 7 6 7 7 4 5 5 8

88 17.06 26.94 69.8%
Drop Kick Data

4 6 7 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 3 5 4 8

88 16.88 26.79 69.8%
FMI

5 6 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 5 5 8

88 14.11 26.77 69.8%
Punters

6 5 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 6 7 3 5 4 7

87 22.27 25.16 69.0%
The Footycast

4 6 7 5 6 8 5 7 6 7 7 3 5 4 7

87 20.09 25.59 69.0%
The Wooden Finger

5 6 7 6 5 8 5 7 6 6 6 3 5 5 7

87 15.98 26.99 69.0%
Stattraction

6 5 6 4 6 8 8 6 7 6 6 4 4 4 7

87 13.11 26.79 69.0%
Cheap Stats

6 5 6 4 6 8 5 7 7 6 7 3 5 4 7

86 20.87 26.26 68.3%
Elo Predicts!

6 4 6 4 6 8 5 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 8

86 14.24 26.72 68.3%
Wheelo Ratings

5 4 6 4 6 8 6 6 6 6 8 3 5 4 8

85 23.02 25.14 67.5%
Matter of Stats

4 5 6 5 7 8 5 6 6 6 6 4 5 4 7

84 22.79 25.11 66.7%
ZaphBot

5 5 6 4 7 7 5 7 5 6 8 2 3 3 8

81 14.87 27.33 64.3%

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