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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 18.9 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.3 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.4 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.2 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Geelong 13.9 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Adelaide 13.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Melbourne 13.2 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.8 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
9
 Collingwood 11.5 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
10
 Carlton 11.3 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
11
 Gold Coast 11.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
12
 St Kilda 10.3 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 North Melbourne 10.8 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–14
14
 GWS 10.3 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.9 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 6.3 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 4.0 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Essendon 3.2 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 5 games of Round 17, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 14 2 – 141.6%
+4.9
1
2
 Sydney 13 3 – 136.9%
+4.3
2
3
 Hawthorn 10 5 1 110.0%
+4.9
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 10 6 – 111.7%
+4.2
4
5
 Adelaide 10 6 – 111.4%
+3.9
6
6
 Melbourne 10 6 – 106.3%
+3.2
7
7
 Geelong 9 7 – 117.1%
+4.9
5
8
 Western Bulldogs 9 7 – 90.8%
+3.8
8
9
 North Melbourne 8∗ 7 – 92.2%
+2.8
13
10
 Collingwood 7∗ 7 1 104.3%
+4.0
9
11
 Gold Coast 7∗ 8 – 101.2%
+4.0
11
12
 GWS 7 9 – 100.8%
+3.3
14
13
 Carlton 7∗ 8 – 95.6%
+4.3
10
14
 St Kilda 6∗ 9 – 100.6%
+4.3
12
15
 Port Adelaide 5∗ 10 – 100.8%
+3.9
15
16
 West Coast 4 12 – 71.5%
+2.3
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 13 – 61.8%
+2.0
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 14 – 71.0%
+2.2
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 2

106 31.5633 31.56 25.3260 25.33 75.7143 75.7%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 2

104 30.9732 30.97 24.9034 24.90 74.2857 74.3%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 2

104 22.0837 22.08 25.4411 25.44 74.2857 74.3%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 2

102 31.8600 31.86 25.5391 25.54 72.8571 72.9%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 2

102 30.7622 30.76 26.2929 26.29 72.8571 72.9%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 2

101 32.9044 32.90 25.3639 25.36 72.1429 72.1%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 2

101 30.8376 30.84 25.6651 25.67 72.1429 72.1%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 2

101 30.4675 30.47 25.4504 25.45 72.1429 72.1%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 2

101 27.2007 27.20 26.1677 26.17 72.1429 72.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 2

100 32.5767 32.58 25.8750 25.88 71.4286 71.4%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 2

100 28.4905 28.49 25.7251 25.73 71.4286 71.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 2

99 30.4480 30.45 27.0286 27.03 70.7143 70.7%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 2

99 29.9369 29.94 26.2164 26.22 70.7143 70.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 2

98 30.7280 30.73 26.4059 26.41 70.0000 70.0%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 2

98 26.5935 26.59 25.9379 25.94 70.0000 70.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 2

98 25.6170 25.62 27.4302 27.43 †1 70.5036 70.5%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 2

97 30.5834 30.58 25.2463 25.25 69.2857 69.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 2

97 29.9819 29.98 25.5634 25.56 69.2857 69.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 2

97 28.9392 28.94 25.8709 25.87 69.2857 69.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 2

97 28.8053 28.81 26.5357 26.54 69.2857 69.3%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 2

95 28.6232 28.62 27.2191 27.22 67.8571 67.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 2

95 23.9491 23.95 26.1321 26.13 67.8571 67.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 2

94 29.4641 29.46 25.7643 25.76 67.1429 67.1%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 2

94 26.4226 26.42 25.7636 25.76 67.1429 67.1%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 2

94 24.1645 24.16 26.7510 26.75 67.1429 67.1%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 2

93 27.4084 27.41 27.3643 27.36 66.4286 66.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 2

93 26.0482 26.05 26.1581 26.16 66.4286 66.4%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 2

92 23.3562 23.36 27.1500 27.15 65.7143 65.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2

90 24.2690 24.27 26.6183 26.62 †9 68.7023 68.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5

87 22.0907 22.09 26.9587 26.96 †19 71.9008 71.9%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 2

80 25.6364 25.64 26.9696 26.97 †25 69.5652 69.6%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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