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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 18.5 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Sydney 17.5 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Hawthorn 15.1 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Geelong 14.9 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Adelaide 13.5 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
6
 Brisbane Lions 13.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
7
 Western Bulldogs 13.4 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
8
 Melbourne 13.0 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
9
 Gold Coast 12.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 GWS 11.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
11
 Collingwood 10.7 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 St Kilda 10.4 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 Carlton 10.2 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.4 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 Port Adelaide 8.5 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 7.0 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 4.5 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Essendon 3.7 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After Round 13, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 12 1 – 147.9%
+6.5
1
2
 Sydney 11 2 – 147.3%
+6.5
2
3
 Hawthorn 8 4 1 113.2%
+6.6
3
4
 Geelong 8 5 – 120.2%
+6.9
4
5
 Melbourne 8 5 – 102.3%
+5.0
8
6
 Western Bulldogs 8 5 – 94.6%
+5.4
7
7
 Gold Coast 7∗ 5 – 112.2%
+5.0
9
8
 Adelaide 7∗ 5 – 107.4%
+6.5
5
9
 Brisbane Lions 7 6 – 106.2%
+6.1
6
10
 GWS 6∗ 6 – 103.2%
+5.4
10
11
 Collingwood 5 7 1 99.2%
+5.2
11
12
 St Kilda 5 8 – 101.9%
+5.4
12
13
 Carlton 5 8 – 88.7%
+5.2
13
14
 North Melbourne 5∗ 7 – 87.7%
+4.4
14
15
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 8 – 101.4%
+4.5
15
16
 West Coast 4 9 – 71.3%
+3.0
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 10 – 60.4%
+2.5
17
18
 Essendon 1 12 – 71.7%
+2.7
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4

87 27.0344 27.03 26.5522 26.55 76.3158 76.3%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4

87 25.9843 25.98 25.7643 25.76 76.3158 76.3%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6

86 18.0259 18.03 26.8537 26.85 75.4386 75.4%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4

83 26.2580 26.26 26.7760 26.78 72.8070 72.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4

83 22.4760 22.48 27.3785 27.38 72.8070 72.8%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4

82 27.3776 27.38 26.3532 26.35 71.9298 71.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4

82 25.6857 25.69 26.9713 26.97 71.9298 71.9%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4

82 25.4313 25.43 27.6316 27.63 71.9298 71.9%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4

82 24.9248 24.92 26.7170 26.72 71.9298 71.9%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4

82 20.3962 20.40 27.2807 27.28 71.9298 71.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4

81 26.1262 26.13 27.1577 27.16 71.0526 71.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5

81 23.9364 23.94 28.3947 28.39 71.0526 71.1%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4

80 24.1079 24.11 27.6446 27.64 70.1754 70.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4

80 23.4632 23.46 27.0648 27.06 70.1754 70.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4

80 21.3427 21.34 28.5443 28.54 †1 70.7965 70.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4

79 24.7952 24.80 27.9170 27.92 69.2982 69.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5

79 24.6373 24.64 26.9851 26.99 69.2982 69.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6

79 23.6467 23.65 27.0777 27.08 69.2982 69.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5

79 21.3115 21.31 27.0965 27.10 69.2982 69.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5

78 25.0248 25.02 26.5855 26.59 68.4211 68.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4

78 25.0146 25.01 27.9031 27.90 68.4211 68.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5

78 23.8009 23.80 27.6404 27.64 68.4211 68.4%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4

78 19.6520 19.65 27.9925 27.99 68.4211 68.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4

77 23.8536 23.85 27.2018 27.20 67.5439 67.5%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4

77 21.0037 21.00 27.3386 27.34 67.5439 67.5%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4

76 22.6830 22.68 28.9825 28.98 66.6667 66.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4

76 19.4850 19.48 27.6088 27.61 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4

75 20.7031 20.70 27.3809 27.38 65.7895 65.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5

73 18.9643 18.96 27.6667 27.67 †9 69.5238 69.5%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5

73 18.4935 18.49 27.8947 27.89 64.0351 64.0%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4

61 19.5102 19.51 28.6910 28.69 †25 68.5393 68.5%

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