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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.8 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Adelaide 16.4 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Brisbane Lions 16.3 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–4
4
 Geelong 15.8 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Gold Coast 15.2 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 GWS 14.7 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
7
 Western Bulldogs 13.9 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
8
 Hawthorn 14.2 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 Fremantle 14.0 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Sydney 11.4 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Port Adelaide 10.1 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 Carlton 8.7 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
13
 Melbourne 8.9 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
14
 St Kilda 7.9 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Essendon 7.5 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 North Melbourne 6.3 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 5.5 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 West Coast 2.5 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 2 games of Round 19, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 14∗ 3 – 136.1%
+3.8
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 13 4 1 116.6%
+2.8
3
3
 Adelaide 12∗ 5 – 136.1%
+4.4
2
4
 GWS 12 6 – 116.0%
+2.7
6
5
 Geelong 11∗ 6 – 127.6%
+4.8
4
6
 Gold Coast 11∗ 5 – 121.8%
+4.2
5
7
 Hawthorn 11∗ 6 – 116.8%
+3.2
8
8
 Fremantle 11∗ 6 – 109.3%
+3.0
9
9
 Western Bulldogs 10 8 – 127.4%
+3.9
7
10
 Sydney 8∗ 9 – 94.2%
+3.4
10
11
 Port Adelaide 8∗ 9 – 89.8%
+2.1
11
12
 Carlton 6∗ 11 – 93.7%
+2.7
12
13
 Melbourne 6∗ 11 – 89.7%
+2.9
13
14
 Essendon 6∗ 11 – 75.0%
+1.5
15
15
 St Kilda 5∗ 12 – 86.2%
+2.9
14
16
 North Melbourne 4∗ 12 1 76.7%
+1.8
16
17
 Richmond 4∗ 13 – 64.4%
+1.5
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 16 – 64.2%
+1.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 1

117 30.78 25.56 76.0%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 2

116 26.87 26.11 75.3%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 2

115 30.45 25.35 74.7%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 2

115 29.59 25.47 74.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 2

115 29.47 26.25 74.7%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 2

115 29.27 25.40 74.7%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 2

114 30.31 25.50 74.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 2

114 30.31 25.33 74.0%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 2

114 29.53 25.36 74.0%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 1

111 30.77 26.21 72.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 1

111 29.43 26.85 72.1%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 2

111 27.58 26.08 72.1%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 1

111 27.27 26.06 72.1%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 1

110 31.54 25.03 71.4%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 2

110 29.11 25.80 71.4%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 1

109 30.41 25.16 70.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 1

109 29.87 25.13 70.8%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 1

108 27.31 26.15 70.1%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 1

108 26.48 25.66 70.1%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 2

108 20.74 27.61 70.1%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 2

107 26.33 26.80 69.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 1

106 27.16 26.27 68.8%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 2

106 24.91 27.12 68.8%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 2

105 28.92 25.99 68.2%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 2

104 26.66 26.10 67.5%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 2

103 24.20 27.44 66.9%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 2

103 14.74 28.36 66.9%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 1

99 23.75 27.14 64.3%

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