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The Return of Essendon

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Footy Maths Institute has a neat graph on Essendon over the last decade or so:

Source: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: 12. ALMOST PARITY

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 16.8 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Hawthorn 16.7 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Fremantle 15.8 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–5
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.5 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Geelong 13.8 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
6
 Collingwood 12.7 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Gold Coast 12.3 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
8
 Adelaide 12.3 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.3 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–11
10
 Melbourne 12.2 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–11
11
 St Kilda 11.3 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–13
12
 GWS 11.4 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–12
13
 Port Adelaide 10.1 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 North Melbourne 10.1 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
15
 Carlton 7.4 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 West Coast 6.4 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–18
17
 Essendon 5.9 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 Richmond 4.8 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 7 games of Round 8, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 7 1 – 133.0%
+8.8
3
2
 Hawthorn 6 1 1 121.2%
+10.2
2
3
 Sydney 6∗ 1 – 178.1%
+10.8
1
4
 Brisbane Lions 5 3 – 126.0%
+9.5
4
5
 Geelong 5 3 – 114.6%
+8.8
5
6
 Melbourne 5∗ 2 – 102.8%
+7.2
10
7
 Collingwood 4 3 1 108.6%
+8.2
6
8
 St Kilda 4 4 – 114.9%
+7.3
11
9
 Gold Coast 4∗ 3 – 114.4%
+8.3
7
10
 North Melbourne 4 4 – 106.1%
+6.1
14
11
 Adelaide 4 4 – 96.6%
+8.3
8
12
 Western Bulldogs 4 4 – 91.5%
+8.3
9
13
 Port Adelaide 3 5 – 110.9%
+7.1
13
14
 GWS 3∗ 4 – 89.8%
+8.4
12
15
 West Coast 2 6 – 59.3%
+4.4
16
16
 Carlton 1 7 – 78.1%
+6.4
15
17
 Essendon 1 7 – 70.2%
+4.9
17
18
 Richmond 1 7 – 60.0%
+3.8
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 6

58 18.5094 18.51 25.2890 25.29 82.8571 82.9%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 6

57 18.9996 19.00 26.4727 26.47 81.4286 81.4%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 5

56 12.6387 12.64 26.2443 26.24 80.0000 80.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 6

55 17.4583 17.46 26.8381 26.84 78.5714 78.6%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 6

54 19.8595 19.86 26.6333 26.63 77.1429 77.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 6

54 19.0084 19.01 26.6460 26.65 77.1429 77.1%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 6

54 18.9764 18.98 26.1026 26.10 77.1429 77.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 5

53 19.2055 19.21 27.5896 27.59 75.7143 75.7%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 5

53 18.3248 18.32 26.8731 26.87 75.7143 75.7%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 5

53 17.9856 17.99 28.0000 28.00 75.7143 75.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 5

53 17.3016 17.30 26.8766 26.88 75.7143 75.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 6

53 16.8853 16.89 27.3877 27.39 75.7143 75.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 5

53 16.2354 16.24 26.8824 26.88 75.7143 75.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 6

53 12.5869 12.59 28.3857 28.39 75.7143 75.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 5

52 17.4196 17.42 26.9823 26.98 74.2857 74.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 6

51 17.2524 17.25 28.2673 28.27 72.8571 72.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 5

51 16.5656 16.57 28.2429 28.24 72.8571 72.9%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 4

51 15.5580 15.56 28.2129 28.21 72.8571 72.9%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 5

51 14.3601 14.36 27.7743 27.77 72.8571 72.9%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 5

50 16.6978 16.70 27.6209 27.62 71.4286 71.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 6

50 16.2994 16.30 28.4714 28.47 71.4286 71.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 4

50 15.8835 15.88 28.0714 28.07 71.4286 71.4%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 5

49 16.5473 16.55 27.3140 27.31 70.0000 70.0%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 6

49 13.2994 13.30 28.1857 28.19 70.0000 70.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 5

48 16.0871 16.09 27.7706 27.77 68.5714 68.6%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 5

48 14.8726 14.87 30.0286 30.03 68.5714 68.6%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 4

48 13.9458 13.95 27.7534 27.75 68.5714 68.6%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 5

48 13.5491 13.55 27.9229 27.92 68.5714 68.6%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 5

44 12.5936 12.59 28.1857 28.19 62.8571 62.9%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 5

42 10.2944 10.29 29.2787 29.28 †9 68.8525 68.9%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 5

32 12.1627 12.16 30.2111 30.21 †25 71.1111 71.1%

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