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Who is your AFL club death-riding this year? | Hurling People Now

Posted on April 5, 2017April 10, 2017 by Max Barry

The introduction of future draft pick trades in 2015 has given us, the footballing public/nerds, the wonderful spectacle of clubs quite literally taking bets on each other and then “death-riding” them the following year in the hopes of securing a better pick.

Source: Who is your AFL club death-riding this year? | Hurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.5 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.7 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.7 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.5 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
5
 Melbourne 15.6 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Geelong 14.8 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Adelaide 14.7 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
8
 Collingwood 13.8 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.8 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 Carlton 12.0 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.6 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 GWS 10.2 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 North Melbourne 9.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Gold Coast 8.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Port Adelaide 6.9 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.4 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.1 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.4 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 4 games of Round 23, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 3 – 142.5%
+0.5
1
2
 Sydney 16∗ 5 – 134.0%
+1.7
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 15 7 – 119.5%
+0.5
4
4
 Hawthorn 14∗ 6 1 118.2%
+1.2
3
5
 Geelong 14 8 – 120.2%
+0.8
6
6
 Adelaide 14 8 – 115.1%
+0.7
7
7
 Melbourne 14∗ 7 – 107.6%
+1.6
5
8
 Collingwood 12∗ 8 1 106.4%
+1.3
8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12∗ 9 – 93.9%
+0.8
9
10
 Carlton 11∗ 10 – 99.6%
+1.0
10
11
 St Kilda 10 12 – 104.2%
+0.6
11
12
 GWS 9∗ 12 – 98.9%
+1.2
12
13
 North Melbourne 9 13 – 90.7%
+0.2
13
14
 Gold Coast 8 14 – 93.2%
+0.4
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 15 – 90.2%
+0.9
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 17 – 71.5%
+0.4
16
17
 Richmond 3 19 – 62.8%
+0.1
17
18
 Essendon 2∗ 19 – 63.2%
+0.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 4

147 48.4402 48.44 24.8792 24.88 76.1658 76.2%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 4

146 32.9292 32.93 25.2113 25.21 75.6477 75.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 4

144 50.1769 50.18 24.8966 24.90 74.6114 74.6%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 4

144 45.5980 45.60 25.2600 25.26 74.6114 74.6%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 4

143 49.2519 49.25 24.9459 24.95 74.0933 74.1%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 4

143 48.5805 48.58 25.7772 25.78 74.0933 74.1%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 4

143 47.6925 47.69 24.4567 24.46 74.0933 74.1%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 4

142 49.2569 49.26 24.9083 24.91 73.5751 73.6%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 4

142 47.5539 47.55 24.9740 24.97 73.5751 73.6%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 4

142 45.5025 45.50 25.5024 25.50 73.5751 73.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 4

141 46.7074 46.71 25.5803 25.58 73.0570 73.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 4

140 50.9325 50.93 25.4727 25.47 72.5389 72.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 4

140 48.4981 48.50 26.1192 26.12 72.5389 72.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 4

138 48.6203 48.62 25.4723 25.47 71.5026 71.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 4

138 47.2193 47.22 25.3075 25.31 71.5026 71.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 4

138 44.7447 44.74 25.9181 25.92 71.5026 71.5%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 4

138 43.4893 43.49 25.1466 25.15 71.5026 71.5%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 4

138 36.6662 36.67 26.2396 26.24 †1 71.8750 71.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 4

137 47.2143 47.21 25.0187 25.02 70.9845 71.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 4

137 46.8085 46.81 25.2080 25.21 70.9845 71.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 4

137 44.6300 44.63 25.2591 25.26 70.9845 71.0%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 4

137 38.7008 38.70 25.6523 25.65 70.9845 71.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 4

136 45.4384 45.44 26.1958 26.20 †3 71.5789 71.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 4

134 43.3105 43.31 25.8187 25.82 69.4301 69.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 4

134 43.2383 43.24 26.4870 26.49 69.4301 69.4%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 4

134 41.8894 41.89 26.8497 26.85 69.4301 69.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 4

133 45.6929 45.69 26.3033 26.30 68.9119 68.9%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 4

133 39.5565 39.56 26.1359 26.14 †9 72.2826 72.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 4

132 37.3992 37.40 26.8608 26.86 68.3938 68.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 4

131 39.9593 39.96 25.9740 25.97 67.8756 67.9%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 4

121 42.6823 42.68 26.3512 26.35 †25 72.0238 72.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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