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Who is your AFL club death-riding this year? | Hurling People Now

Posted on April 5, 2017April 10, 2017 by Max Barry

The introduction of future draft pick trades in 2015 has given us, the footballing public/nerds, the wonderful spectacle of clubs quite literally taking bets on each other and then “death-riding” them the following year in the hopes of securing a better pick.

Source: Who is your AFL club death-riding this year? | Hurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 17.2 148%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 16.8 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Fremantle 14.9 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.3 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Geelong 13.8 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
6
 Collingwood 12.6 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Western Bulldogs 12.7 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
8
 Gold Coast 12.4 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 Adelaide 11.9 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
10
 Melbourne 12.0 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–11
11
 GWS 11.4 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
12
 St Kilda 11.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 Port Adelaide 10.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
14
 North Melbourne 10.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Carlton 8.0 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 6.7 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Essendon 6.1 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 Richmond 3.9 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 8, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Hawthorn 6 1 1 121.2%
+10.3
2
2
 Sydney 6∗ 1 – 178.1%
+11.2
1
3
 Fremantle 6∗ 1 – 137.6%
+8.9
3
4
 Melbourne 5∗ 2 – 102.8%
+7.0
10
5
 Collingwood 4 3 1 108.6%
+8.1
6
6
 Brisbane Lions 4∗ 3 – 118.8%
+10.3
4
7
 North Melbourne 4∗ 3 – 115.9%
+6.3
14
8
 Gold Coast 4∗ 3 – 114.4%
+8.4
8
9
 Geelong 4∗ 3 – 108.6%
+9.8
5
10
 Western Bulldogs 4∗ 3 – 91.8%
+8.7
7
11
 Port Adelaide 3∗ 4 – 112.5%
+7.6
13
12
 St Kilda 3∗ 4 – 110.1%
+8.0
12
13
 Adelaide 3∗ 4 – 96.1%
+8.9
9
14
 GWS 3∗ 4 – 89.8%
+8.4
11
15
 West Coast 2∗ 5 – 55.8%
+4.7
16
16
 Carlton 1∗ 6 – 80.3%
+7.0
15
17
 Essendon 1∗ 6 – 72.9%
+5.1
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 7 – 54.2%
+3.9
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 1

53 17.1505 17.15 26.1192 26.12 82.8125 82.8%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 1

52 17.5409 17.54 27.2469 27.25 81.2500 81.2%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 1

52 11.5299 11.53 26.9459 26.95 81.2500 81.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 1

50 16.1777 16.18 27.4652 27.47 78.1250 78.1%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 1

49 18.2684 18.27 27.2406 27.24 76.5625 76.6%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 1

49 17.5715 17.57 28.2891 28.29 76.5625 76.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 1

49 17.4367 17.44 27.2914 27.29 76.5625 76.6%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 1

49 17.3056 17.31 27.2527 27.25 76.5625 76.6%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 1

49 17.1382 17.14 26.8730 26.87 76.5625 76.6%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 1

49 15.8710 15.87 28.9688 28.97 76.5625 76.6%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 1

49 15.8147 15.81 27.4722 27.47 76.5625 76.6%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 1

49 14.6334 14.63 27.4337 27.43 76.5625 76.6%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 1

48 16.6376 16.64 27.4761 27.48 75.0000 75.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 1

48 15.6639 15.66 27.5959 27.60 75.0000 75.0%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 1

48 15.0722 15.07 28.6317 28.63 75.0000 75.0%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 1

48 10.8094 10.81 29.2969 29.30 75.0000 75.0%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 1

47 14.9569 14.96 28.4844 28.48 73.4375 73.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 1

47 14.8101 14.81 29.0938 29.09 73.4375 73.4%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 1

47 12.5715 12.57 28.2125 28.21 73.4375 73.4%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 1

46 15.5814 15.58 28.9236 28.92 71.8750 71.9%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 1

46 15.4300 15.43 28.2577 28.26 71.8750 71.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 1

45 15.0367 15.04 27.9094 27.91 70.3125 70.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 1

45 13.8777 13.88 29.7188 29.72 70.3125 70.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 1

45 13.7030 13.70 27.9859 27.99 70.3125 70.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 1

44 14.4644 14.46 28.6420 28.64 68.7500 68.8%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 1

44 13.7189 13.72 30.6406 30.64 68.7500 68.8%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 1

44 12.3202 12.32 28.5813 28.58 68.7500 68.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 1

44 11.7132 11.71 28.9016 28.90 68.7500 68.8%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 1

40 11.1464 11.15 29.0781 29.08 62.5000 62.5%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 1

38 8.7500 8.75 29.9091 29.91 †9 69.0909 69.1%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 1

28 10.4146 10.41 31.8077 31.81 †25 71.7949 71.8%

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