Brisbane Lions v Carlton
2026-05-08 19:30:00 +10:00
Gabba

14.16

100

13.11

89

Brisbane Lions won by 11 points

IN

Joyce

Gallop

OUT

IN

Wilson

Hewett

Cottrell

Reidy

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		88%	38 points	✓	27.3	0.81
Aggregate		86%	38 points	✓	27.4	0.78
		92%	38 points	✓	27.0	0.88
		92%	51 points	✓	40.0	0.88
		92%	41 points	✓	30.0	0.88
		92%	45 points	✓	33.5	0.87
		91%	41 points	✓	30.1	0.86
		91%	40 points	✓	29.2	0.86
Punters		90%	42 points	✓	31.3	0.85
		90%	43 points	✓	32.3	0.84
		89%	39 points	✓	28.4	0.84
		89%	43 points	✓	32.1	0.83
		88%	33 points	✓	22.0	0.82
		88%	40 points	✓	28.6	0.82
		88%	42 points	✓	31.0	0.81
		88%	43 points	✓	31.8	0.81
		88%	39 points	✓	27.9	0.81
		87%	41 points	✓	30.0	0.80
		87%	37 points	✓	26.4	0.80
		87%	41 points	✓	29.9	0.80
		86%	37 points	✓	26.2	0.79
		86%	39 points	✓	28.3	0.79
		84%	31 points	✓	20.3	0.74
		82%	40 points	✓	28.9	0.72
		82%	47 points	✓	36.0	0.72
		81%	28 points	✓	17.0	0.70
		80%	36 points	✓	25.0	0.68
		80%	27 points	✓	16.0	0.67
		80%	30 points	✓	19.2	0.67
		76%	23 points	✓	11.5	0.61
		72%	35 points	✓	23.9	0.52

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.