Hawthorn v Geelong
M.C.G.
13.14
92
14.7
91
Hawthorn won by 1 point
IN
Perez
Dalton
Amon
Mackenzie
OUT
IN
Close
Bowes
O'Connor
Clark
OUT
| Tip | Win % | Margin | ✓ | MAE | Bits | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
s10
|
|
58% | 7 points | ✓ | 5.6 | 0.21 |
|
Aggregate
|
|
54% | 4 points | ✓ | 2.7 | 0.12 |
|
|
66% | 13 points | ✓ | 12.4 | 0.40 |
|
|
64% | 12 points | ✓ | 11.0 | 0.36 |
|
|
64% | 11 points | ✓ | 10.1 | 0.35 |
|
|
62% | 11 points | ✓ | 9.9 | 0.30 |
|
|
60% | 8 points | ✓ | 7.3 | 0.27 |
|
|
60% | 8 points | ✓ | 7.2 | 0.27 |
|
|
58% | 7 points | ✓ | 6.0 | 0.22 |
|
|
58% | 7 points | ✓ | 6.4 | 0.20 |
|
|
57% | 7 points | ✓ | 6.0 | 0.19 |
|
|
57% | 5 points | ✓ | 4.3 | 0.18 |
|
|
56% | 6 points | ✓ | 5.0 | 0.16 |
|
|
56% | 5 points | ✓ | 3.8 | 0.16 |
|
|
56% | 5 points | ✓ | 3.9 | 0.16 |
|
|
55% | 3 points | ✓ | 2.2 | 0.13 |
|
Punters
|
|
54% | 4 points | ✓ | 2.5 | 0.12 |
|
|
54% | 5 points | ✓ | 3.5 | 0.12 |
|
|
54% | 3 points | ✓ | 1.9 | 0.10 |
|
|
53% | 3 points | ✓ | 2.4 | 0.08 |
|
|
53% | 3 points | ✓ | 2.0 | 0.08 |
|
|
50% | -1 points | ✓ | 2.0 | 0.00 |
|
|
50% | 0 points | ✓ | 1.0 | 0.00 |
|
|
52% | 1 point | ✗ | 2.0 | -0.07 |
|
|
53% | 4 points | ✗ | 5.4 | -0.08 |
|
|
53% | 2 points | ✗ | 3.2 | -0.09 |
|
|
56% | 8 points | ✗ | 9.0 | -0.17 |
|
|
57% | 6 points | ✗ | 6.9 | -0.21 |
|
|
57% | 4 points | ✗ | 4.6 | -0.22 |
"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.
"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.
Drawn games are counted as correct tips.