Hawthorn v Essendon
2025-03-14 19:40:00 +11:00
M.C.G.

17.9

111

12.13

85

Hawthorn won by 26 points

IN

Ward

Worpel

OUT

IN

Reid

Kako

Prior

Roberts

Tsatas

Duursma

Ridley

Heppell

Parish

Stringer

Gresham

Laverde

Guelfi

Kelly

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		77%	29 points	✓	2.6	0.62
Aggregate		76%	26 points	✓	0.5	0.60
		90%	53 points	✓	27.0	0.85
		89%	45 points	✓	19.0	0.83
		87%	37 points	✓	11.0	0.80
		86%	35 points	✓	9.1	0.78
		85%	27 points	✓	0.9	0.77
		85%	32 points	✓	5.7	0.76
		83%	35 points	✓	8.6	0.73
		78%	27 points	✓	0.9	0.64
		78%	23 points	✓	3.1	0.64
		78%	28 points	✓	1.5	0.63
		77%	24 points	✓	2.0	0.63
Punters		77%	23 points	✓	2.9	0.62
		77%	26 points	✓	0.3	0.62
		74%	26 points	✓	0.1	0.57
		74%	26 points	✓	0.1	0.56
		73%	22 points	✓	3.7	0.54
		71%	21 points	✓	5.2	0.51
		71%	20 points	✓	6.5	0.50
		71%	18 points	✓	8.0	0.50
		70%	16 points	✓	9.7	0.48
		69%	17 points	✓	9.0	0.46
		68%	13 points	✓	12.6	0.45
		66%	21 points	✓	5.0	0.40
		65%	20 points	✓	5.7	0.39
		65%	19 points	✓	7.0	0.37
		60%	11 points	✓	15.4	0.27

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.