Hawthorn v Melbourne
2023-05-13 16:35:00 +10:00
M.C.G.

7.7

49

15.13

103

Melbourne won by 54 points

IN

Mackenzie

Butler

Blanck

Koschitzke

Jiath

Breust

Scrimshaw

Reeves

Ward

Macdonald

Brockman

Greene

OUT

IN

Hibberd

Spargo

Jordon

Turner

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		85%	36 points	✓	17.8	0.77
Aggregate		85%	38 points	✓	15.9	0.77
		93%	51 points	✓	3.3	0.89
		92%	49 points	✓	5.0	0.88
		91%	43 points	✓	11.2	0.86
		89%	46 points	✓	8.0	0.83
		89%	44 points	✓	9.8	0.83
		89%	43 points	✓	11.5	0.82
		88%	35 points	✓	19.0	0.81
Punters		88%	42 points	✓	11.9	0.81
		88%	40 points	✓	13.7	0.81
		87%	41 points	✓	13.0	0.80
		87%	35 points	✓	19.0	0.80
		87%	36 points	✓	18.5	0.79
		85%	27 points	✓	26.7	0.77
		85%	49 points	✓	5.0	0.76
		84%	50 points	✓	4.0	0.75
		84%	32 points	✓	21.6	0.75
		84%	36 points	✓	18.0	0.74
		84%	31 points	✓	23.1	0.74
		84%	40 points	✓	14.0	0.74
		83%	35 points	✓	19.0	0.74
		82%	30 points	✓	24.0	0.71
		81%	36 points	✓	17.8	0.69
		80%	30 points	✓	24.5	0.68
		74%	27 points	✓	27.0	0.57
		74%	26 points	✓	28.4	0.56

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.