Who’s Tipping Now? The Leaderboard After Round 9

A tumultuous week for tipsters, with the two leading models in Figuring Footy and Matter of Stats taking a stand against the pack and getting whacked for it. Meanwhile FMI collected 7 tips and shot all the way to the top!

Tips Bits

5 7 5 6 6 6 4 5 7

51 0.1635
PlusSixOne

5 8 4 7 6 6 3 5 6

50 4.4093
Punters

4 8 4 7 7 6 3 5 5

49 4.5399
Aggregate

5 8 4 6 7 6 3 5 5

49 3.7614

3 8 5 6 7 7 4 5 4

49 2.3556

5 9 4 6 7 6 3 5 4

49 1.1776

4 7 4 6 7 6 3 5 5

47 3.4325

5 8 5 5 5 6 3 5 5

47 1.1082

This puts the bookies back above the aggregate. Booo.

Still, that’s not bad. It’s a tall order to beat the market odds, especially in a simple head-to-head contest of tipping every game. The market knows more and can react quickly; a couple of times this season, it’s swung the right way just before a game’s kick-off.

Also worth noting, of course, that 2017 has been a shocker for tipping. The aggregate (and the market) are both running at 61.25%, which is well below par, even for those years before the AFL included expansion teams you could count on to get regularly beaten.

Are St Kilda a Sleeping Giant?

Figuring Footy has another excellent analysis based on shot quality, this time examining the Saints in particular:

The Saints have created better quality chances (xScore) than their opponents 6 times this year. In all 5 of their wins and also in their loss to an incredibly accurate West Coast. If this result went the other way, they’d be sitting equal first heading into round 9.

Source: Are St Kilda a Sleeping Giant? – Figuring Footy

An Early Look at the Best and Worst Defences

Figuring Footy is using shot position data to study how different teams protect the big sticks:

As seems to happen more often than not these days, the frantic, high scoring pace of the first couple of rounds has started to wear off, and strong, composed defensive efforts are once again having a big say on who’s winning games. As longtime readers will have seen in the lead up to the Grand Final last year, shot location data can give us a great idea of the capabilities and tactical styles of different defences in the competition.

Source: An Early Look at the Best and Worst Defences – Figuring Footy

Tower of Power after Round 3

What does it look like if you run 10,000 simulations and count how many times each team winds up in each position? This!

At this stage, there’s still lots of uncertainty, so teams are mostly long slashes, capable of finishing in many different positions. As the weeks go by, they tend to flatten out.

Adelaide are already settled in the top 4, though, the squiggle reckons, and Brisbane are very likely for the spoon.

Gold Coast and Freo evacuating those bottom rungs opened up a lot of space for other teams to fall into. That chute opening for Hawthorn all the way down to 17th is kind of terrifying.

Computers are beating the bookies

It’s been a rough start to the year for tipsters. And the start of a season is a tough time for computer models, which generally don’t know about personnel changes during the off-season.

Still, after three rounds, the computers models are doing okay!

Tips Bits
Figuring Footy 18 0.88
Squiggle 18 -0.96
PlusSixOne 17 1.28
Aggregate 17 0.48
Footy Maths Institute 17 -1.84
Punters 16 0.73
Matter of Stats 15 0.16
The Arc 15 0.04

“Bits” from Monash University rewards tipsters for saying a win was likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely.

Squiggle has been fortunate with a few line-ball calls, doing well on raw tip numbers but badly burned on over-confident predictions that turned out to be upsets.

Figuring Footy has been strong on both. PlusSixOne has been excellent in probabilistic terms, and is currently leading in Bits.