LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Melbourne Port Adelaide Geelong Brisbane Lions Western Bulldogs Sydney Greater Western Sydney Essendon West Coast St Kilda Fremantle Richmond Carlton Hawthorn Adelaide Gold Coast Collingwood North Melbourne
Glicko Ratings 143.9 2.7 2.5 2.8 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.8 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.7 6.5 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.3 8.0 8.8 10.0 5.5 6.3 7.0 7.0 5.3 7.3 3.4 4.7 7.0 7.0 7.6 -0.9 7.5 6.3 6.6 7.7 3.9 8.9
Matter of Stats 141.0 3.1 2.8 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.3 5.0 5.4 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.5 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.5 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.5 7.9 8.7 10.0 6.4 5.2 6.7 6.5 4.2 7.6 3.6 4.8 7.3 6.0 7.2 1.6 7.1 5.9 6.4 6.2 3.8 9.4
Graft 140.1 3.1 2.9 4.1 5.0 4.8 5.7 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.3 6.0 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 7.9 8.9 10.0 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.3 4.1 7.9 3.0 4.9 6.3 6.3 7.9 0.4 7.3 5.8 8.4 6.3 3.7 9.7
PlusSixOne 140.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.2 5.9 6.1 6.5 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.3 7.7 8.5 10.0 4.4 6.3 7.2 5.9 5.3 7.6 3.3 6.0 6.8 5.8 7.3 1.6 7.0 5.9 7.4 5.9 2.5 8.9
Live Ladders 139.8 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.8 6.1 5.7 6.0 5.9 5.6 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.4 7.6 8.8 10.0 6.6 5.0 6.8 7.7 3.8 7.6 3.2 5.3 7.7 6.1 7.7 -3.5 5.9 5.7 7.6 7.3 4.8 9.7
ZaphBot 138.7 2.5 3.0 2.7 3.5 4.4 4.3 5.3 5.1 5.7 6.0 5.8 6.4 6.0 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.5 8.0 8.8 10.0 5.6 6.0 8.2 6.9 4.5 8.0 2.9 2.6 6.3 6.3 7.5 -2.0 6.9 6.2 8.2 7.0 3.3 9.6
AFLalytics 138.6 2.8 2.7 2.4 3.0 3.7 4.0 5.0 5.4 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.5 6.2 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.4 7.9 8.7 10.0 6.0 5.0 6.9 6.2 3.9 7.8 3.2 4.8 7.1 5.6 7.2 1.1 7.1 5.9 6.5 6.3 3.7 9.3
Stattraction 136.7 2.4 2.4 2.3 3.2 4.0 4.1 5.0 5.4 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.3 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.2 7.2 8.0 10.0 4.9 6.5 7.0 6.7 4.7 7.4 3.0 4.6 5.5 5.5 7.4 1.4 7.2 5.1 7.4 5.6 3.6 8.9
Squiggle 135.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.6 3.6 4.0 4.8 5.0 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.0 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.5 7.9 8.8 10.0 6.5 4.8 7.3 6.4 3.6 7.7 2.5 4.7 7.6 6.0 7.6 -2.4 5.9 5.9 7.5 6.3 3.9 9.8
AFL Lab 134.9 2.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.8 3.9 4.5 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.6 6.0 5.7 5.6 6.1 6.3 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.5 7.7 8.7 10.0 6.0 5.4 7.3 7.9 4.8 7.0 1.3 4.5 7.1 6.3 7.5 -1.5 5.5 5.9 6.1 7.2 3.5 9.4
FMI 122.5 2.8 2.0 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.2 5.5 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 5.9 8.0 8.7 10.0 6.6 5.3 4.0 5.4 2.7 8.0 -1.3 6.8 7.0 3.8 7.4 -0.9 6.5 4.4 5.3 5.1 5.8 9.8
Ladder 88.2 -1.8 -3.4 -2.7 -2.4 -0.1 1.5 2.5 4.8 5.8 5.1 5.8 5.8 4.8 5.4 5.1 5.4 5.8 5.8 6.1 4.4 6.7 8.0 10.0 8.0 4.2 4.2 1.7 1.4 7.6 -0.1 1.2 3.9 3.5 4.8 -1.3 7.7 3.0 2.2 2.6 4.5 10.0

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 4
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 5
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 6
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 7
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 8
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 9
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 10
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 11
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 12
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 13
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 14
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 15
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 16
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 21
10.00000000 FMI Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6th 21
10.00000000 PlusSixOne North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 22
10.00000000 AFL Lab North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 22
10.00000000 Graft North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 22
10.00000000 ZaphBot North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 22
10.00000000 Squiggle North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 22
10.00000000 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 22
10.00000000 AFLalytics North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 22
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 22
10.00000000 FMI Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6th 22
10.00000000 Glicko Ratings North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 22
10.00000000 Matter of Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18th 22

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-18.1 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 3
-16.6 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
-16.4 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
-15.3 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
-15.0 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
-14.9 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
-14.6 FMI Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
-14.1 Stattraction Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
-14.0 FMI Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
-14.0 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 0
-13.3 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 2
-13.1 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
-12.9 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
-12.8 FMI Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3rd 4
-12.7 Stattraction Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 1
-12.6 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 0
-12.5 ZaphBot Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 0
-12.5 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 0
-12.3 Squiggle Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 3
-12.3 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 4
-12.2 AFL Lab Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
-12.0 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
-11.7 FMI Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 5
-11.4 FMI Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 0
-11.4 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 5

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
53.2 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
52.7 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
50.6 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
49.9 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
49.9 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
49.3 FMI Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
48.3 Stattraction Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
48.1 FMI Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
48.0 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 0
46.3 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
45.8 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
45.2 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 0
45.0 ZaphBot Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 0
44.9 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 0
44.5 AFL Lab Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 2
43.9 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
43.4 FMI Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 5
42.9 FMI Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 0
42.8 ZaphBot Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 5
42.8 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 7
42.1 Squiggle Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 5
41.8 Stattraction Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
41.5 Live Ladders Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 5
41.4 Glicko Ratings Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 0
41.4 AFL Lab Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12th 1
40.8 Graft Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17th 2

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-56.2 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 3
-46.6 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 2
-45.7 FMI Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3rd 4
-45.4 Stattraction Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 1
-44.7 Squiggle Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 3
-44.5 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 4
-42.3 Stattraction Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-41.8 FMI Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3rd 5
-38.0 AFLalytics Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 3
-37.5 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7th 6
-37.2 Live Ladders Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1st 0
-37.0 FMI Melbourne
1
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1st 0
-36.4 ZaphBot Greater Western Sydney
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7th 3
-36.1 Graft Greater Western Sydney
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7th 3
-35.6 FMI Brisbane Lions
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4th 1
-35.3 PlusSixOne Melbourne
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1st 0
-35.2 Glicko Ratings Melbourne
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1st 0
-35.1 AFLalytics Melbourne
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1st 0
-35.0 Matter of Stats Melbourne
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1st 0
-34.4 Matter of Stats Greater Western Sydney
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7th 3
-33.1 Stattraction Essendon
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8th 2
-32.9 ZaphBot Melbourne
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1st 0
-32.5 AFL Lab Greater Western Sydney
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7th 3
-32.3 Glicko Ratings Greater Western Sydney
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7th 3
-32.1 Squiggle Greater Western Sydney
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7th 2