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Who is your AFL club death-riding this year? | Hurling People Now

Posted on April 5, 2017April 10, 2017 by Max Barry

The introduction of future draft pick trades in 2015 has given us, the footballing public/nerds, the wonderful spectacle of clubs quite literally taking bets on each other and then “death-riding” them the following year in the hopes of securing a better pick.

Source: Who is your AFL club death-riding this year? | Hurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 16.3 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 15.5 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Sydney 14.7 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
4
 Fremantle 14.5 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.4 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Gold Coast 13.7 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Geelong 13.7 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
8
 Adelaide 12.1 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
9
 Melbourne 12.0 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
10
 Collingwood 11.8 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
11
 GWS 11.1 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–12
12
 St Kilda 10.2 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
13
 North Melbourne 10.2 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Port Adelaide 9.4 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Carlton 8.0 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 West Coast 8.0 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–16
17
 Essendon 6.0 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 5.4 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 1 game of Round 5, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Western Bulldogs 4∗ – – 140.4%
+12.3
1
2
 Sydney 3∗ 1 – 182.9%
+11.7
3
3
 Gold Coast 3∗ 1 – 152.6%
+10.7
6
4
 Fremantle 3∗ 1 – 133.4%
+11.5
4
5
 North Melbourne 3∗ 1 – 115.3%
+7.2
13
6
 Hawthorn 3∗ 1 – 114.0%
+12.5
2
7
 Melbourne 3∗ 1 – 102.0%
+9.0
9
8
 Port Adelaide 2∗ 2 – 117.6%
+7.4
14
9
 Brisbane Lions 2∗ 2 – 110.6%
+12.4
5
10
 Adelaide 2 3 – 106.4%
+10.1
8
11
 Collingwood 2∗ 2 – 93.1%
+9.8
10
12
 Geelong 2∗ 2 – 89.7%
+11.7
7
13
 West Coast 2∗ 2 – 64.9%
+6.0
16
14
 St Kilda 1∗ 3 – 86.0%
+9.2
12
15
 GWS 1∗ 3 – 76.9%
+10.1
11
16
 Carlton 1 4 – 76.6%
+7.0
15
17
 Essendon –∗ 4 – 62.7%
+6.0
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 4 – 56.1%
+5.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 1

29 9.4564 9.46 23.6784 23.68 78.3784 78.4%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 1

28 9.1818 9.18 25.7738 25.77 75.6757 75.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 1

28 5.2605 5.26 25.6714 25.67 75.6757 75.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 1

27 9.7243 9.72 25.3435 25.34 72.9730 73.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 1

27 8.6247 8.62 25.2419 25.24 72.9730 73.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 1

27 8.5256 8.53 25.3030 25.30 72.9730 73.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 1

27 7.7020 7.70 26.0984 26.10 72.9730 73.0%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 1

27 7.5830 7.58 25.7373 25.74 72.9730 73.0%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 1

27 7.4019 7.40 25.4976 25.50 72.9730 73.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 1

27 7.3856 7.39 25.4054 25.41 72.9730 73.0%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 1

26 8.9449 8.94 25.0727 25.07 70.2703 70.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 1

26 8.6148 8.61 25.6911 25.69 70.2703 70.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 1

26 7.6338 7.63 25.1924 25.19 70.2703 70.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 1

26 7.1477 7.15 26.8378 26.84 70.2703 70.3%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 1

26 6.7594 6.76 26.6762 26.68 70.2703 70.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 1

26 5.6486 5.65 26.1892 26.19 70.2703 70.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 1

25 8.8615 8.86 25.5843 25.58 67.5676 67.6%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 1

25 8.2094 8.21 25.6000 25.60 67.5676 67.6%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 1

25 6.3879 6.39 27.4865 27.49 67.5676 67.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 1

25 6.3148 6.31 26.9730 26.97 67.5676 67.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 1

25 3.5229 3.52 28.6757 28.68 67.5676 67.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 1

24 7.2628 7.26 26.7297 26.73 64.8649 64.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 1

24 6.9942 6.99 25.5176 25.52 64.8649 64.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 1

24 6.9618 6.96 25.7870 25.79 64.8649 64.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 1

24 5.7237 5.72 26.9757 26.98 64.8649 64.9%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 1

24 4.3013 4.30 27.4649 27.46 64.8649 64.9%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 1

23 7.4826 7.48 25.7568 25.76 62.1622 62.2%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 1

23 7.4555 7.46 26.3451 26.35 62.1622 62.2%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 1

22 4.4341 4.43 27.8378 27.84 59.4595 59.5%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5

17 0.6310 0.63 27.4286 27.43 †9 60.7143 60.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †25 50.0000 50.0%

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