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Welcome AFLalytics!

Posted on January 11, 2019January 11, 2019 by Max Barry

Our first new entry for 2019 is AFLalytics, who started publishing articles last year and is now up and running with a Brownian Motion-inspired Elo model.

AFLalytics also has some very nifty visualizations and apps, which are definitely worth your time during an off-season filled with stupid non-football sports.

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 18.5 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Sydney 17.7 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Geelong 15.0 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Hawthorn 15.1 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Adelaide 14.1 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Melbourne 13.3 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Brisbane Lions 13.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.7 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 Gold Coast 11.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 GWS 11.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
11
 Collingwood 10.7 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 St Kilda 10.4 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 Carlton 10.2 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.9 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.3 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 6.7 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 4.6 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 3.5 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 5 games of Round 14, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 12∗ 1 – 147.9%
+6.5
1
2
 Sydney 12 2 – 143.7%
+5.7
2
3
 Geelong 9 5 – 123.1%
+6.0
3
4
 Melbourne 9 5 – 105.7%
+4.3
6
5
 Hawthorn 8∗ 4 1 113.2%
+6.6
4
6
 Adelaide 8∗ 5 – 112.4%
+6.1
5
7
 Western Bulldogs 8 6 – 90.7%
+4.7
8
8
 Gold Coast 7∗ 6 – 107.2%
+4.6
9
9
 Brisbane Lions 7∗ 6 – 106.2%
+6.0
7
10
 GWS 6∗ 6 – 103.2%
+5.4
10
11
 North Melbourne 6∗ 7 – 88.5%
+3.9
14
12
 Collingwood 5∗ 7 1 99.2%
+5.2
11
13
 St Kilda 5∗ 8 – 101.9%
+5.4
12
14
 Carlton 5∗ 8 – 88.7%
+5.2
13
15
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 9 – 101.0%
+4.3
15
16
 West Coast 4 10 – 72.7%
+2.7
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 10 – 60.4%
+2.6
17
18
 Essendon 1 13 – 70.4%
+2.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 4

91 28.3402 28.34 26.4072 26.41 76.4706 76.5%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 4

91 28.0063 28.01 25.7146 25.71 76.4706 76.5%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 4

90 19.0686 19.07 26.6839 26.68 75.6303 75.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 4

87 28.2352 28.24 26.6643 26.66 73.1092 73.1%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 4

87 24.3080 24.31 27.3847 27.38 73.1092 73.1%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 4

86 29.3571 29.36 26.2698 26.27 72.2689 72.3%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 4

86 27.3852 27.39 26.8164 26.82 72.2689 72.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 4

86 27.3695 27.37 27.3697 27.37 72.2689 72.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 4

86 26.8024 26.80 26.6208 26.62 72.2689 72.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 4

86 21.5201 21.52 27.3025 27.30 72.2689 72.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 4

85 28.4371 28.44 27.0717 27.07 71.4286 71.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 4

85 26.3437 26.34 28.4958 28.50 71.4286 71.4%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 5

85 25.3727 25.37 26.8888 26.89 71.4286 71.4%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 4

84 26.0222 26.02 27.3252 27.33 70.5882 70.6%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 4

84 23.5633 23.56 28.5014 28.50 †1 71.1864 71.2%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 4

83 26.9431 26.94 27.7348 27.73 69.7479 69.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 4

83 23.0031 23.00 26.9588 26.96 69.7479 69.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 4

82 27.7428 27.74 28.0034 28.00 68.9076 68.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 4

82 26.7765 26.78 26.3501 26.35 68.9076 68.9%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 3

82 26.0757 26.08 26.7778 26.78 68.9076 68.9%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 4

82 25.4907 25.49 27.4874 27.49 68.9076 68.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 3

82 25.2775 25.28 26.9847 26.98 68.9076 68.9%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 4

82 22.0749 22.07 27.9844 27.98 68.9076 68.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 4

81 25.3958 25.40 27.0840 27.08 68.0672 68.1%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 4

81 23.1272 23.13 26.9479 26.95 68.0672 68.1%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 4

80 20.9554 20.96 27.4395 27.44 67.2269 67.2%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 3

79 24.0523 24.05 28.6807 28.68 66.3866 66.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 4

79 22.1181 22.12 27.2472 27.25 66.3866 66.4%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 4

77 20.8768 20.88 27.8000 27.80 †9 70.0000 70.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 4

77 20.1385 20.14 27.9160 27.92 64.7059 64.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 4

65 21.7626 21.76 28.4468 28.45 †25 69.1489 69.1%

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