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Welcome AFLalytics!

Posted on January 11, 2019January 11, 2019 by Max Barry

Our first new entry for 2019 is AFLalytics, who started publishing articles last year and is now up and running with a Brownian Motion-inspired Elo model.

AFLalytics also has some very nifty visualizations and apps, which are definitely worth your time during an off-season filled with stupid non-football sports.

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 18.9 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.0 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.0 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.6 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Geelong 14.1 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
6
 Adelaide 14.1 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Melbourne 13.8 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.8 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 12.3 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Carlton 11.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
11
 St Kilda 11.1 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–13
12
 GWS 10.7 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Gold Coast 10.0 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 10.1 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.9 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 6.0 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.6 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.6 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 3 games of Round 18, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 15 2 – 142.3%
+3.9
1
2
 Sydney 13 4 – 131.2%
+4.0
2
3
 Hawthorn 10∗ 5 1 110.0%
+4.5
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 10∗ 6 – 111.7%
+4.6
4
5
 Adelaide 10∗ 6 – 111.4%
+4.1
6
6
 Melbourne 10∗ 6 – 106.3%
+3.8
7
7
 Collingwood 9 7 1 104.5%
+2.8
9
8
 Geelong 9∗ 7 – 117.1%
+5.1
5
9
 Western Bulldogs 9∗ 7 – 90.8%
+3.8
8
10
 St Kilda 8 9 – 106.1%
+3.1
11
11
 Carlton 8∗ 8 – 96.0%
+3.4
10
12
 North Melbourne 8 9 – 91.4%
+2.1
14
13
 GWS 7∗ 9 – 100.8%
+3.7
12
14
 Gold Coast 7∗ 9 – 100.7%
+3.0
13
15
 Port Adelaide 6 11 – 101.3%
+2.9
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 12 – 71.5%
+2.0
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 14 – 63.3%
+1.6
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 15 – 69.0%
+1.6
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 3

112 34.7879 34.79 24.9497 24.95 76.1905 76.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 3

110 33.4807 33.48 24.6415 24.64 74.8299 74.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 3

110 23.8420 23.84 25.0107 25.01 74.8299 74.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 3

109 34.7044 34.70 25.8095 25.81 74.1497 74.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

108 35.0008 35.00 25.2418 25.24 73.4694 73.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 3

107 35.6758 35.68 25.0576 25.06 72.7891 72.8%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 3

107 33.6996 33.70 25.3783 25.38 72.7891 72.8%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

107 33.3070 33.31 25.1660 25.17 72.7891 72.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 3

107 30.0096 30.01 25.9291 25.93 72.7891 72.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

106 36.0401 36.04 25.5884 25.59 72.1088 72.1%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 3

106 31.1313 31.13 25.4443 25.44 72.1088 72.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 3

105 33.7394 33.74 26.5986 26.60 71.4286 71.4%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

105 32.9115 32.91 25.9830 25.98 71.4286 71.4%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 3

104 33.7436 33.74 25.0554 25.06 70.7483 70.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 3

104 33.7313 33.73 26.0988 26.10 70.7483 70.7%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 3

104 32.1100 32.11 26.2585 26.26 70.7483 70.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 2

104 29.3004 29.30 25.4231 25.42 70.7483 70.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 3

104 28.2997 28.30 27.1365 27.14 †1 71.2329 71.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 3

104 24.7883 24.79 26.2055 26.21 †1 71.2329 71.2%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 3

103 33.4149 33.41 25.1784 25.18 70.0680 70.1%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 3

103 31.7926 31.79 25.5186 25.52 70.0680 70.1%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 3

102 26.2585 26.26 25.7007 25.70 69.3878 69.4%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 3

101 29.4484 29.45 25.5878 25.59 68.7075 68.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 3

100 31.9432 31.94 25.4694 25.47 68.0272 68.0%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 2

100 31.2303 31.23 26.8827 26.88 68.0272 68.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 3

100 26.7417 26.74 26.5112 26.51 68.0272 68.0%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 3

99 30.1939 30.19 27.0748 27.07 67.3469 67.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 3

99 28.5468 28.55 25.9552 25.96 67.3469 67.3%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 3

98 26.2593 26.26 27.0544 27.05 66.6667 66.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3

96 26.7098 26.71 26.2971 26.30 †9 69.5652 69.6%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

86 29.1053 29.11 26.5984 26.60 †25 70.4918 70.5%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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