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Welcome AFLalytics!

Posted on January 11, 2019January 11, 2019 by Max Barry

Our first new entry for 2019 is AFLalytics, who started publishing articles last year and is now up and running with a Brownian Motion-inspired Elo model.

AFLalytics also has some very nifty visualizations and apps, which are definitely worth your time during an off-season filled with stupid non-football sports.

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Wins % Range
1
 Port Adelaide 11.4 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Brisbane Lions 11.3 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–4
3
 Geelong 10.2 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
4
 Collingwood 10.0 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
5
 Hawthorn 9.9 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–8
6
 Richmond 9.6 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Western Bulldogs 9.6 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–9
8
 GWS 9.7 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
9
 St Kilda 9.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–10
10
 Essendon 9.2 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
11
 North Melbourne 7.6 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
12
 West Coast 7.7 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 Carlton 7.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
14
 Sydney 7.2 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–17
15
 Melbourne 6.7 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–16
16
 Gold Coast 6.7 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–17
17
 Fremantle 5.8 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 Adelaide 3.7 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 5, 2020.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Port Adelaide 4 1 – 170.1%
+7.4
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 4 1 – 129.6%
+7.3
2
3
 Geelong 3 2 – 120.5%
+7.2
3
4
 St Kilda 3 2 – 112.0%
+6.1
9
5
 Essendon 3∗ 1 – 111.3%
+6.2
10
6
 Gold Coast 3 2 – 108.9%
+3.7
16
7
 GWS 3 2 – 107.4%
+6.7
8
8
 Western Bulldogs 3 2 – 103.5%
+6.6
7
9
 Hawthorn 3 2 – 91.0%
+6.9
5
10
 Collingwood 2 2 1 133.5%
+8.0
4
11
 Richmond 2 2 1 97.9%
+7.6
6
12
 Carlton 2 3 – 88.9%
+5.4
13
13
 North Melbourne 2 3 – 87.3%
+5.6
11
14
 Sydney 2 3 – 84.7%
+5.2
14
15
 West Coast 2 3 – 82.4%
+5.7
12
16
 Fremantle 1 4 – 87.2%
+4.8
17
17
 Melbourne 1∗ 3 – 78.2%
+5.7
15
18
 Adelaide – 5 – 53.3%
+3.7
18

∗ Yet to play

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Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
AFLalytics

7 5 4 6 7

29 2.21 24.05 65.9%
PlusSixOne

8 5 3 6 7

29 1.57 24.93 65.9%
Squiggle

7 5 5 5 7

29 1.44 24.19 65.9%
Punters

7 5 4 5 8

29 1.27 24.98 65.9%
Live Ladders

8 6 3 4 5

26 1.55 24.20 59.1%
Footy Maths Institute

8 5 3 4 6

26 -1.03 29.64 59.1%
Swinburne

8 4 3 5 5

25 1.12 26.18 56.8%
Aggregate

7 4 4 4 6

25 0.46 25.04 56.8%
AFL_GO

6 4 4 4 7

25 -0.46 23.95 56.8%
Stattraction

7 5 3 4 6

25 -2.23 26.72 56.8%
Graft

7 4 3 4 6

24 0.19 25.59 54.5%
Matter of Stats

6 5 4 4 5

24 -0.81 25.10 54.5%
AFL Lab

5 4 4 6 4

23 -1.70 25.45 52.3%
The Flag

8 4 4 4 3

23 -4.25 26.39 52.3%
The Arc

8 3 3 4 4

22 -2.49 28.34 50.0%
Massey Ratings

7 3 3 4 3

20 -1.92 27.45 47.6%

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