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Tag: aflalytics

Welcome AFLalytics!

Posted on January 11, 2019January 11, 2019

Our first new entry for 2019 is AFLalytics, who started publishing articles last year and is now up and running with a Brownian Motion-inspired Elo model.

AFLalytics also has some very nifty visualizations and apps, which are definitely worth your time during an off-season filled with stupid non-football sports.

Wins % Range
1
Sydney 17.1 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1–2
2
Fremantle 16.6 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1–4
3
Hawthorn 15.9 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–3
4
Geelong 15.3 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–5
5
Brisbane Lions 13.9 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–6
6
Gold Coast 13.4 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–7
7
Western Bulldogs 12.8 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–8
8
Adelaide 12.7 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–9
9
Collingwood 11.9 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–10
10
Melbourne 12.2 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–11
11
St Kilda 11.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–12
12
GWS 10.9 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–12
13
North Melbourne 9.9 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
14
Port Adelaide 9.2 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
15
Carlton 7.1 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15–16
16
Essendon 5.9 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16–17
17
West Coast 6.2 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15–17
18
Richmond 4.7 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After 3 games of Round 10, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Sydney 9 1 – 152.2%
+8.1
1
2
Fremantle 8∗ 1 – 131.6%
+8.6
2
3
Geelong 7 3 – 123.5%
+8.3
4
4
Gold Coast 7 3 – 119.9%
+6.4
6
5
Hawthorn 6∗ 2 1 116.8%
+9.4
3
6
Brisbane Lions 6 4 – 116.6%
+7.9
5
7
Melbourne 6∗ 3 – 103.9%
+6.2
10
8
Adelaide 5∗ 4 – 101.7%
+7.7
8
9
Western Bulldogs 5∗ 4 – 92.4%
+7.8
7
10
Collingwood 4 5 1 99.1%
+7.4
9
11
St Kilda 4∗ 5 – 109.3%
+7.1
11
12
North Melbourne 4∗ 5 – 104.4%
+5.9
13
13
GWS 4∗ 5 – 91.1%
+6.9
12
14
Port Adelaide 3 7 – 105.2%
+6.2
14
15
West Coast 2∗ 7 – 60.1%
+4.2
17
16
Carlton 1∗ 8 – 79.3%
+6.1
15
17
Essendon 1∗ 8 – 71.8%
+4.9
16
18
Richmond 1∗ 8 – 60.3%
+3.7
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 2

70 25.0153 25.02 24.0114 24.01 83.3333 83.3%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 2

69 25.8520 25.85 25.2980 25.30 82.1429 82.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 2

67 25.5539 25.55 25.2739 25.27 79.7619 79.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 2

67 23.5338 23.53 25.5429 25.54 79.7619 79.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 2

67 16.3621 16.36 25.4948 25.49 79.7619 79.8%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 2

66 25.7141 25.71 24.9500 24.95 78.5714 78.6%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 2

66 25.1880 25.19 26.4167 26.42 78.5714 78.6%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 2

66 23.4550 23.45 25.4638 25.46 78.5714 78.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 2

66 18.4165 18.42 26.2976 26.30 78.5714 78.6%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 2

65 26.3414 26.34 25.8810 25.88 77.3810 77.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 2

65 26.1272 26.13 25.9025 25.90 77.3810 77.4%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 2

65 24.2203 24.22 25.7081 25.71 77.3810 77.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 2

64 23.4750 23.48 27.2738 27.27 76.1905 76.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 2

64 22.7826 22.78 25.5533 25.55 76.1905 76.2%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 2

64 22.5904 22.59 26.1143 26.11 76.1905 76.2%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 2

64 21.8865 21.89 26.3718 26.37 76.1905 76.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 2

63 23.6514 23.65 26.9049 26.90 75.0000 75.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 2

63 21.4057 21.41 26.0714 26.07 75.0000 75.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 2

63 21.3023 21.30 26.0612 26.06 75.0000 75.0%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 2

61 23.7419 23.74 26.8823 26.88 72.6190 72.6%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 2

61 22.6027 22.60 26.1586 26.16 72.6190 72.6%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 2

61 22.4780 22.48 25.6632 25.66 72.6190 72.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 2

61 21.2822 21.28 26.3690 26.37 72.6190 72.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 2

61 21.1464 21.15 27.0952 27.10 72.6190 72.6%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 2

61 20.6303 20.63 28.5000 28.50 72.6190 72.6%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 2

60 18.8880 18.89 26.5952 26.60 71.4286 71.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 2

59 19.5268 19.53 26.3014 26.30 70.2381 70.2%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 2

59 18.1052 18.11 26.4393 26.44 70.2381 70.2%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 2

57 18.3840 18.38 26.5833 26.58 67.8571 67.9%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 2

55 17.2761 17.28 27.1600 27.16 †9 73.3333 73.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 2

45 18.7869 18.79 27.7712 27.77 †25 76.2712 76.3%

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