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Tag: aflalytics

Welcome AFLalytics!

Posted on January 11, 2019January 11, 2019

Our first new entry for 2019 is AFLalytics, who started publishing articles last year and is now up and running with a Brownian Motion-inspired Elo model.

AFLalytics also has some very nifty visualizations and apps, which are definitely worth your time during an off-season filled with stupid non-football sports.

Wins % Range
1
Fremantle 18.9 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Sydney 17.0 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Hawthorn 15.0 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
4
Brisbane Lions 14.5 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–5
5
Geelong 13.9 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–7
6
Adelaide 14.1 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–6
7
Melbourne 13.8 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–7
8
Western Bulldogs 12.8 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
9
Collingwood 12.3 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
10
St Kilda 11.2 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–12
11
Carlton 11.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–12
12
GWS 10.8 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–13
13
Gold Coast 10.0 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
14
North Melbourne 10.1 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–14
15
Port Adelaide 8.9 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
16
West Coast 6.0 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
Richmond 3.7 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
18
Essendon 2.6 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After 4 games of Round 18, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Fremantle 15 2 – 142.3%
+3.9
1
2
Sydney 13 4 – 131.2%
+4.0
2
3
Hawthorn 10∗ 5 1 110.0%
+4.5
3
4
Brisbane Lions 10∗ 6 – 111.7%
+4.5
4
5
Adelaide 10∗ 6 – 111.4%
+4.1
6
6
Melbourne 10∗ 6 – 106.3%
+3.8
7
7
Collingwood 9 7 1 104.5%
+2.8
9
8
Geelong 9 8 – 115.2%
+4.9
5
9
Western Bulldogs 9∗ 7 – 90.8%
+3.8
8
10
St Kilda 8 9 – 106.1%
+3.2
10
11
GWS 8 9 – 101.6%
+2.8
12
12
Carlton 8∗ 8 – 96.0%
+3.4
11
13
North Melbourne 8 9 – 91.4%
+2.1
14
14
Gold Coast 7∗ 9 – 100.7%
+3.0
13
15
Port Adelaide 6 11 – 101.3%
+2.9
15
16
West Coast 4∗ 12 – 71.5%
+2.0
16
17
Richmond 2∗ 14 – 63.3%
+1.7
17
18
Essendon 1∗ 15 – 69.0%
+1.6
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 3

112 34.7523 34.75 24.8747 24.87 75.6757 75.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 4

111 23.9022 23.90 24.9078 24.91 75.0000 75.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 3

110 33.1278 33.13 24.6249 24.62 74.3243 74.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 3

109 34.6151 34.62 25.7432 25.74 73.6486 73.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

108 34.8190 34.82 25.1901 25.19 72.9730 73.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 4

108 33.7476 33.75 25.2842 25.28 72.9730 73.0%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 3

107 35.5116 35.51 25.0187 25.02 72.2973 72.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

107 33.0609 33.06 25.1307 25.13 72.2973 72.3%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 3

107 29.9992 30.00 25.8439 25.84 72.2973 72.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

106 35.6879 35.69 25.5535 25.55 71.6216 71.6%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 3

106 30.7035 30.70 25.4309 25.43 71.6216 71.6%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 3

105 33.4175 33.42 26.5608 26.56 70.9459 70.9%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

105 32.7039 32.70 25.9378 25.94 70.9459 70.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 3

104 33.5799 33.58 26.0376 26.04 70.2703 70.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 3

104 33.1511 33.15 25.0645 25.06 70.2703 70.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 3

104 31.6756 31.68 26.2635 26.26 70.2703 70.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 2

104 28.6246 28.62 25.4581 25.46 70.2703 70.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 3

104 28.2302 28.23 27.0525 27.05 †1 70.7483 70.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 3

104 24.6990 24.70 26.1361 26.14 †1 70.7483 70.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 3

103 32.8846 32.88 25.1829 25.18 69.5946 69.6%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 3

103 31.2693 31.27 25.5195 25.52 69.5946 69.6%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 3

102 26.0632 26.06 25.6595 25.66 68.9189 68.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 4

101 32.0174 32.02 25.3716 25.37 68.2432 68.2%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 3

101 28.9624 28.96 25.5662 25.57 68.2432 68.2%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 2

100 30.7037 30.70 26.8791 26.88 67.5676 67.6%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 3

100 26.1104 26.11 26.5212 26.52 67.5676 67.6%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 3

99 30.0355 30.04 27.0270 27.03 66.8919 66.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 3

99 28.2104 28.21 25.9315 25.93 66.8919 66.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 3

98 26.0043 26.00 27.0473 27.05 66.2162 66.2%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4

97 26.8368 26.84 26.1727 26.17 †9 69.7842 69.8%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

86 28.7652 28.77 26.5488 26.55 †25 69.9187 69.9%

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