aflalytics Archives

Our first new entry for 2019 is AFLalytics, who started publishing articles last year and is now up and running with a Brownian Motion-inspired Elo model.

AFLalytics also has some very nifty visualizations and apps, which are definitely worth your time during an off-season filled with stupid non-football sports.

Wins

Range

Sydney

16.8

127%

Port Adelaide

15.3

113%

Geelong

14.9

112%

3–4

GWS

14.9

109%

3–5

Brisbane Lions

14.2

122%

5–6

Western Bulldogs

13.8

125%

6–7

Hawthorn

13.8

118%

6–8

Carlton

13.7

111%

4–8

Fremantle

12.8

113%

9–10

Collingwood

12.6

102%

9–10

Essendon

11.3

93%

Gold Coast

10.8

99%

12–14

Melbourne

11.0

99%

12–14

St Kilda

10.3

99%

12–14

Adelaide

8.4

99%

West Coast

5.0

68%

North Melbourne

3.0

63%

Richmond

2.0

63%

PROJECTIONS

History

Wins

Finish

Sydney

–

126.7%

+-0.2

Port Adelaide

–

114.2%

+0.3

Geelong

–

112.2%

+-0.1

GWS

–

109.1%

+-0.1

Brisbane Lions

121.9%

+-0.3

Western Bulldogs

–

125.1%

+-0.2

Hawthorn

–

118.5%

+-0.2

Carlton

–

110.2%

+0.7

Collingwood

102.5%

+-0.4

Fremantle

113.7%

+0.3

Essendon

93.5%

+-0.2

St Kilda

–

99.4%

+-0.7

Gold Coast

–

99.1%

+-0.2

Melbourne

–

98.5%

+0.0

Adelaide

99.1%

+-0.1

West Coast

–

68.1%

+-0.0

North Melbourne

–

63.5%

+-0.0

Richmond

–

63.7%

+0.0

Models Leaderboard

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2	152	32.87	26.50	72.0%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2	140	33.48	26.64	66.4%
3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2	140	29.73	27.31	66.4%
2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2	140	26.53	27.39	66.4%
3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3	140	24.29	27.20	66.4%
2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3	139	27.65	27.34	65.9%
3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9	138	32.10	26.50^†8	68.0%
s10 3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2	138	30.83	26.82	65.4%
1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2	138	27.38	27.22	65.4%
2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2	138	24.60	27.32	65.4%
3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2	137	29.26	27.02	64.9%
2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2	137	27.62	26.89	64.9%
3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2	137	27.55	27.41	64.9%
3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2	137	22.52	28.16	64.9%
2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2	136	29.25	26.89	64.5%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2	136	27.51	27.30^†1	64.8%
3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2	136	27.50	27.25	64.5%
1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2	136	26.49	27.57	64.5%
3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3	136	25.53	27.00	64.5%
Aggregate 3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2	135	29.92	26.78	64.0%
Punters 3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2	135	29.02	26.92	64.0%
3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2	135	27.94	26.77	64.0%
3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2	135	26.80	26.96	64.0%
3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2	134	27.26	27.37	63.5%
1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2	134	16.94	28.76	63.5%
3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2	133	28.13	27.40	63.0%
3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3	131	27.28	27.21^†2	62.7%
3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2	131	24.55	27.85	62.1%
1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2	131	23.85	27.65	62.1%
3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3	130	27.37	26.95	61.6%

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