It’s 2019!

Here is a January 1 ladder prediction:

WINS
1.RICHMOND14.8
2.MELBOURNE14.8
3.GWS14.3
4.WEST COAST14.1
5.GEELONG13.6
6.COLLINGWOOD13.2
7.ESSENDON13.0
8.ADELAIDE12.8
9.Hawthorn11.9
10.Port Adelaide11.6
11.North Melbourne10.6
12.Brisbane9.5
13.St Kilda9.5
14.Western Bulldogs8.7
15.Sydney8.3
16.Fremantle7.3
17.Carlton4.8
18.Gold Coast3.6

Some notes:

  • Teams are ranked by average wins from 100,000 simulated seasons.
  • Unlike a regular ladder, it doesn’t round off wins to whole numbers and tie-break on percentage. That’s why it’s different to the quick-and-dirty Live Squiggle Ladder Predictor you may see on the right. This way is better.
  • That said! Historically, season-long predictions aren’t much more accurate than tipping everyone to win the same number as games as they did last year. So, you know.
  • This takes into account off-season list changes.
  • Predictions will continue to evolve as Squiggle is able to factor in pre-season results, major off-season injuries, and Round 1 team selections.
  • Sydney are that low because they tailed off badly in 2018 despite being able to put out something close to a full-strength team most weeks, and did not significantly bolster their team in the trading period.