LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Geelong Greater Western Sydney Sydney Melbourne Port Adelaide Carlton Essendon Collingwood Western Bulldogs Fremantle Gold Coast Brisbane Lions St Kilda West Coast Adelaide Hawthorn Richmond North Melbourne
Live Ladders 45.2 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.7 5.7 5.7 7.3 7.4 3.5 7.3 6.5 6.5 7.3 7.1 -0.6 6.3 6.8 5.5 6.6 4.9 3.6 4.0 2.5 7.8 7.0 9.1
Elo Predicts! 43.9 3.6 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.9 6.5 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.6 7.9 5.6 7.5 -3.1 6.5 7.8 7.3 7.5 -3.6 5.2 1.6 4.8 9.6 3.0 9.1
AFLalytics 43.3 3.0 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.7 6.1 7.1 7.4 3.1 5.4 6.2 6.0 6.7 6.7 1.9 6.0 6.5 5.2 4.7 5.8 4.4 5.6 4.1 6.5 5.3 7.3
Squiggle 42.0 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.8 7.0 4.2 4.6 5.3 7.2 6.4 6.7 2.1 5.5 6.5 5.1 5.2 4.9 4.4 4.2 2.5 6.4 5.7 7.7
Wheelo Ratings 40.7 2.9 3.8 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.7 7.1 2.3 5.8 6.1 6.8 6.3 6.6 0.2 6.3 6.4 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.6 3.6 2.4 6.0 5.7 7.6
Don't Blame the Data 39.6 3.7 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.3 5.6 1.6 7.5 7.6 7.2 6.7 2.4 5.9 6.6 6.3 5.8 2.8 5.3 4.5 4.1 7.0 5.7 9.2
Glicko Ratings 39.2 3.6 4.5 5.3 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.3 -0.0 7.7 7.4 6.8 6.6 6.9 4.6 5.6 6.7 6.2 6.1 5.8 6.5 3.7 2.9 5.6 3.0 8.8
Winnable 38.9 2.8 3.9 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.3 6.3 6.3 3.1 3.2 5.1 6.2 5.8 6.4 3.3 5.9 6.2 5.8 5.1 3.3 3.8 4.4 2.3 4.3 5.0 8.4
The Footycast 37.5 2.9 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.2 7.5 2.9 4.1 5.8 7.3 7.0 6.8 4.1 3.9 6.4 5.1 7.0 4.6 4.2 3.5 2.8 8.3 4.5 8.2
ZaphBot 35.2 2.9 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.7 6.7 3.0 7.0 6.3 7.4 6.6 6.6 -4.6 6.8 6.6 6.7 7.0 3.3 5.4 0.8 0.9 8.4 5.3 7.3
PlusSixOne 34.4 3.0 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.3 5.6 1.8 0.5 3.5 5.5 5.4 5.8 3.9 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.1 4.1 3.5 6.6 2.0 5.1 1.0 5.5
Stattraction 34.3 3.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 6.8 4.3 7.4 4.4 7.5 7.3 6.8 -5.2 5.8 7.1 5.6 6.4 -0.1 6.8 1.1 0.2 8.4 6.6 7.7
What Snoo Thinks 34.0 1.9 4.1 4.1 5.4 5.5 5.7 7.4 -3.2 8.1 6.0 7.4 7.5 7.2 -4.5 6.8 6.8 6.2 4.9 3.8 6.4 2.7 -0.3 7.0 6.5 8.3
AFL Lab 32.8 3.1 4.1 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.1 6.1 1.0 2.8 4.9 6.8 7.0 6.4 0.9 6.2 6.2 5.6 5.3 3.9 4.4 5.3 0.9 5.6 3.1 7.9
Ladder 32.7 -0.1 2.5 3.1 4.1 5.1 8.0 10.0 1.2 7.5 7.5 5.8 6.6 7.1 4.5 -1.8 3.7 -0.1 3.3 7.9 4.5 2.4 6.6 7.1 3.3 7.1
Matter of Stats 32.4 2.5 3.4 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.4 6.9 0.7 5.6 5.1 6.6 6.3 6.5 -1.0 5.6 6.2 4.4 5.7 3.6 4.2 5.2 0.8 5.8 5.0 6.6
Informed Stats 16.5 5.3 5.3 5.9 8.3 5.4 6.8 7.7 5.6 6.2 -4.6 6.5 7.0 6.9 7.2 -0.5 7.1 1.1 5.3 8.8 5.4 8.7
FMI 15.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 -3.4 4.1 4.2 7.5 -2.9 7.0 -5.5 4.9 6.6 6.8 4.2 -6.3 1.3 6.5 -6.6 7.0 2.1 1.8

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.99457059 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.99247535 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.98666897 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.98637976 Informed Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.94385882 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 3
9.93033529 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 4
9.90697941 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 1
9.90534376 The Footycast North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.87770882 Glicko Ratings North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.87156003 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.87096176 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 2
9.86334068 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.84172806 Matter of Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.83310041 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.83292647 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.80747021 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.78399047 Winnable North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.73410588 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 0
9.70503568 Squiggle North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.69313718 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 4
9.69232941 ZaphBot North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.62200882 AFL Lab North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.61033235 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 5
9.59135188 Wheelo Ratings North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.57119388 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.53003109 AFLalytics North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-19.7 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-12.9 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
-12.5 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-11.7 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-10.1 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
-9.8 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-9.5 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 2
-9.5 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 1
-9.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
-9.1 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
-9.0 AFL Lab Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
-8.5 ZaphBot Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
-8.3 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-7.9 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 4
-7.9 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 2
-7.9 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-7.7 Informed Stats Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 4
-7.6 Matter of Stats Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
-7.3 Glicko Ratings Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-7.2 Matter of Stats Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-7.2 Live Ladders Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
-7.2 Stattraction Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
-7.0 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 4
-7.0 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 2
-7.0 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
45.9 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
40.2 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
38.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
38.2 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
38.0 AFL Lab Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
36.9 ZaphBot Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
35.1 Matter of Stats Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
34.4 Live Ladders Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
34.3 Stattraction Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
33.8 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1
33.6 Squiggle Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
33.2 Don't Blame the Data Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
32.9 Glicko Ratings Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
32.6 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 5
32.6 Wheelo Ratings Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
32.4 Winnable Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
32.3 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 1
32.3 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 2
32.3 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 3
32.3 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 4
32.3 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 5
32.3 FMI Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 6
32.0 The Footycast Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0
31.9 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 1
31.9 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 2
31.5 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 1

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-59.4 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-45.0 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-43.3 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-39.5 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-39.0 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 2
-39.0 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 1
-36.7 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-35.9 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 4
-35.8 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 2
-35.7 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
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 7th 0
-35.4 Informed Stats Essendon
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 7th 4
-34.6 Glicko Ratings Geelong
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-34.4 Matter of Stats Geelong
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 1st 0
-34.0 Stattraction Essendon
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 7th 4
-34.0 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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 7th 2
-34.0 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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 7th 1
-33.8 Glicko Ratings Geelong
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 1st 1
-33.8 Stattraction Essendon
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 7th 2
-33.7 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 7th 4
-33.6 Informed Stats Essendon
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 7th 5
-32.5 Stattraction Essendon
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 7th 1
-31.8 ZaphBot Essendon
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 7th 2
-30.8 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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 7th 4
-30.1 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 7th 1
-30.0 Matter of Stats Geelong
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 1st 1