LEADERBOARD

After 2 games of Round 20, 2024.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Live Ladders

3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 1

120 26.76 25.54 73.2%
AFLalytics

3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 1

115 25.54 25.93 70.1%
s10

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 1

113 25.56 25.67 68.9%
Data by Josh

3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 1

112 27.84 25.29†4 70.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 1

112 22.13 26.23 68.3%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 1

111 27.35 25.62 67.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 1

111 23.27 26.07 67.7%
Graft

2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 1

111 23.24 26.12 67.7%
FMI

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 1

111 23.13 25.96†1 68.1%
Massey Ratings

2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 1

111 21.68 25.88 67.7%
Aggregate

3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 1

110 24.60 25.70 67.1%
Matter of Stats

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 1

110 23.78 26.14 67.1%
Glicko Ratings

3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 1

110 23.55 26.11 67.1%
Hyperion

1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 1

110 22.58 26.05 67.1%
Elo Predicts!

3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 1

110 21.76 25.98 67.1%
The Wooden Finger

3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 1

110 19.57 26.29 67.1%
Squiggle

2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 1

109 25.43 25.69 66.5%
Informed Stats

2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 1

109 20.79 26.70 66.5%
Punters

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 1

108 24.05 25.81 65.9%
AFL Lab

3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 2

108 22.70 25.74 65.9%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 1

108 18.24 26.92 65.9%
Winnable

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 1

107 25.01 26.20 65.2%
Drop Kick Data

3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 1

106 23.84 26.06 64.6%
Cheap Stats

1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 1

106 20.78 26.70 64.6%
The Footycast

3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 1

106 18.94 26.13 64.6%
PlusSixOne

1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 1

106 13.73 27.59 64.6%
footycharts

3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 1

105 22.82 26.59 64.0%
The Cruncher

3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 1

105 22.66 26.03†1 64.4%
Stattraction

1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 1

104 19.32 26.92 63.4%
ZaphBot

3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 1

103 19.41 25.95 62.8%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Live Ladders 61% -1.1 24.4 67% 2.8 29.2 79% 2.1 20.5 72% 2.0 23.7 61% 1.0 17.9 78% 1.3 29.5 68% 1.9 25.7 89% 3.6 23.8 83% 3.8 19.3 83% 3.5 29.5 72% 3.0 29.2 89% 10.0 24.7 63% 3.6 24.9 83% 5.0 27.5 67% 3.4 15.8 72% 2.3 25.3 72% 4.8 31.9 56% 0.4 37.2
AFLalytics 67% 0.6 23.5 61% 2.0 32.0 63% 1.1 20.9 61% 0.6 26.3 61% 1.3 18.3 72% 0.8 29.9 58% 0.8 28.3 89% 5.8 21.0 78% 3.1 20.5 72% 2.8 31.5 78% 2.4 29.1 89% 10.6 24.5 63% 3.3 25.8 83% 5.0 27.5 67% 3.3 17.1 67% 2.6 24.3 78% 5.6 28.5 56% -0.6 37.9
s10 61% -0.1 23.7 61% 2.1 31.9 58% 1.3 20.8 67% 1.2 26.1 50% 1.5 18.5 72% 0.6 30.3 58% 1.4 26.9 83% 4.1 21.3 72% 3.2 19.8 78% 3.0 30.9 67% 2.0 29.5 89% 10.5 23.0 63% 3.4 25.8 83% 5.5 26.2 67% 3.2 16.4 78% 2.7 23.9 78% 4.9 30.6 56% 0.4 36.9
Data by Josh 50% -1.8 24.7 67% 3.5 28.6 50% 0.4 22.5 78% 2.9 22.6 61% -0.4 21.4 71% 1.6 27.2 53% -0.6 28.8 82% 5.2 18.6 72% 4.5 20.4 83% 3.9 30.6 67% 2.1 30.4 89% 10.0 22.5 61% 3.3 28.2 83% 8.0 24.1 78% 4.1 18.3 75% 3.1 19.6 78% 4.5 32.1 61% 1.4 34.2
Don't Blame the Data 67% -0.4 26.2 56% 0.8 34.0 58% 0.9 21.1 56% 0.7 27.4 61% 1.3 17.5 61% -0.2 31.8 63% 2.1 23.9 78% 2.8 24.5 72% 2.5 21.2 83% 3.6 30.2 67% 1.4 30.5 89% 10.1 24.1 58% 2.5 27.5 78% 4.8 26.6 78% 3.1 15.5 72% 3.0 21.4 78% 4.5 31.7 56% 0.5 37.7
Wheelo Ratings 56% 0.4 23.2 61% 2.7 31.5 53% 0.9 20.8 72% 1.1 25.8 56% 0.7 19.9 67% 0.6 30.2 58% 2.2 26.5 83% 5.1 21.1 67% 3.1 20.7 78% 4.1 29.7 67% 0.9 30.8 89% 11.6 20.9 58% 4.2 24.6 83% 6.6 25.6 72% 3.7 16.8 72% 2.0 25.5 78% 4.4 31.1 50% 0.5 37.0
What Snoo Thinks 61% -0.5 23.3 61% 2.0 32.4 58% 1.3 20.5 56% 0.3 26.1 61% 1.1 19.0 78% 0.9 28.9 53% 1.5 27.3 72% 2.1 25.0 78% 3.3 20.8 72% 2.0 31.4 78% 3.4 28.0 89% 10.2 25.0 63% 3.1 25.1 83% 5.9 25.7 61% 2.7 17.5 72% 2.9 23.9 78% 4.6 31.4 44% -0.4 38.5
Graft 56% -0.6 24.3 61% 1.4 35.3 63% 1.7 19.5 61% 1.5 26.4 72% 3.1 18.4 56% -1.0 32.9 63% 1.7 25.3 83% 3.9 19.9 78% 3.5 17.3 67% 2.4 31.7 67% 2.1 28.9 89% 9.7 23.5 63% 3.0 28.9 78% 3.7 27.8 61% 1.8 18.2 78% 3.1 23.6 78% 5.0 32.1 44% 0.6 36.6
FMI 67% -0.0 22.6 50% 1.5 31.7 67% 2.2 20.5 50% 0.6 28.6 72% 1.5 19.1 61% -0.7 31.9 68% 2.4 23.9 83% 4.1 19.8 72% 2.7 20.3 61% 1.6 33.1 71% 1.9 30.4 89% 10.1 23.4 63% 3.4 26.1 83% 3.8 27.5 67% 2.9 17.3 61% 2.2 25.4 78% 5.1 31.0 61% 1.0 35.4
Massey Ratings 67% 0.3 21.3 56% 2.1 30.6 63% 1.7 21.6 56% 0.8 25.8 72% 1.6 16.2 56% -0.9 31.0 68% 3.5 23.7 89% 3.3 23.9 61% 2.9 20.4 67% 1.1 33.4 78% 2.3 28.5 89% 10.4 23.4 58% 2.8 25.5 78% 3.0 31.8 61% 3.2 15.5 72% 2.7 23.8 78% 4.0 31.4 50% -1.5 38.4
Aggregate 56% -0.2 23.6 61% 2.0 31.5 58% 1.5 20.8 61% 1.1 25.9 56% 1.4 18.1 61% 0.3 30.5 63% 1.9 26.0 83% 3.8 22.1 67% 3.1 20.1 56% 2.5 31.6 72% 2.2 29.3 89% 10.2 23.5 63% 3.4 25.3 83% 5.2 26.8 67% 3.0 16.2 78% 2.8 23.9 78% 4.8 30.3 56% 0.1 37.3
Matter of Stats 56% -0.5 25.1 61% 2.0 33.5 58% 0.5 22.3 61% 0.7 26.4 56% 1.2 18.9 67% 0.5 30.5 58% 0.3 27.6 89% 4.9 20.4 72% 3.9 19.5 67% 2.6 31.5 67% 2.5 29.0 89% 10.1 24.8 63% 3.6 25.1 83% 5.1 26.4 67% 3.1 17.1 72% 2.8 23.8 78% 4.5 31.3 44% -0.3 37.7
Glicko Ratings 56% -0.7 24.6 67% 1.9 31.5 58% 0.2 22.1 56% 0.8 25.4 56% 1.0 19.5 61% 0.8 30.3 47% 1.0 27.3 89% 4.8 21.0 67% 3.6 20.4 89% 4.0 29.1 61% 1.2 31.2 89% 10.6 24.1 63% 3.5 25.5 78% 4.5 27.9 72% 3.3 17.1 78% 3.0 23.2 78% 4.5 32.0 44% -0.9 38.4
Hyperion 72% 0.2 23.7 56% 1.0 31.2 58% 0.7 21.8 44% -0.7 29.6 72% 2.7 17.8 72% 0.6 29.9 63% 3.3 22.4 61% 2.5 22.7 67% 2.0 22.3 67% 3.3 30.3 67% 2.4 28.9 89% 10.9 22.8 63% 2.2 27.8 78% 4.4 29.8 67% 2.6 17.2 78% 2.9 21.7 78% 4.9 31.4 56% -0.8 38.1
Elo Predicts! 61% 0.6 22.1 56% 1.2 30.2 63% 1.4 20.3 56% 0.4 27.0 67% 1.9 18.0 61% -0.7 32.1 63% 2.4 24.8 83% 3.2 23.4 61% 2.6 21.7 61% 1.5 32.0 72% 2.0 28.1 89% 10.3 23.1 68% 3.1 25.5 83% 4.0 29.9 67% 2.2 17.0 67% 2.7 23.8 78% 4.6 33.1 50% 0.2 36.1
The Wooden Finger 61% -2.2 24.3 56% 1.5 32.5 53% 2.0 20.5 61% 0.9 26.2 67% -1.1 22.7 67% -1.0 30.9 63% 2.2 26.3 78% 4.0 21.1 67% 3.5 19.4 56% 0.9 33.1 78% 2.8 27.6 89% 10.1 25.6 74% 3.9 24.4 83% 5.1 27.9 56% 1.3 19.0 67% 2.0 25.9 78% 3.6 29.7 56% -0.3 36.6
Squiggle 50% 0.3 23.0 61% 2.1 31.5 58% 0.7 21.0 67% 1.0 27.4 61% 1.3 17.6 61% 0.6 30.1 63% 2.2 26.1 72% 2.7 24.3 67% 2.3 20.7 72% 2.7 31.7 67% 3.3 26.6 89% 10.1 25.6 63% 3.8 23.7 83% 5.2 26.3 61% 3.1 15.9 56% 1.8 26.3 78% 5.7 29.9 67% 1.9 35.0
Informed Stats 50% 0.4 24.3 56% 2.7 34.2 53% 1.8 20.9 56% 1.4 25.5 72% 1.2 21.8 50% -3.0 33.5 74% 3.0 24.1 78% 2.4 24.0 61% 2.0 22.5 67% 1.5 32.1 67% 0.4 30.7 89% 10.4 24.1 63% 3.5 26.1 83% 5.7 25.1 72% 3.7 17.1 67% 3.0 23.8 78% 1.2 33.5 61% 0.4 38.0
Punters 61% -1.0 23.6 56% 1.4 32.8 58% 0.7 20.6 61% 0.9 26.1 56% 1.0 20.3 67% 0.3 30.1 58% 1.2 27.6 78% 5.3 19.6 61% 2.9 20.4 72% 2.9 31.5 56% 1.4 29.7 89% 11.0 21.2 63% 3.9 24.5 83% 6.1 26.8 56% 3.4 18.1 78% 2.4 24.6 78% 5.1 29.8 56% -0.6 37.7
AFL Lab 50% -0.4 24.5 56% 1.4 33.1 68% 2.6 19.1 56% 0.2 27.0 72% 0.5 16.9 72% 0.5 31.0 63% 1.6 26.1 72% 3.0 24.0 50% 1.2 20.3 67% 3.2 29.5 72% 0.6 31.0 89% 11.0 21.5 63% 3.4 26.8 83% 5.2 25.8 61% 4.2 16.2 56% 1.9 27.6 78% 4.5 28.0 56% 0.8 35.4
AFL Scorigami 67% -1.0 23.2 61% 1.2 31.3 58% 0.6 20.9 67% 1.6 23.2 56% 0.5 19.5 72% 0.5 30.3 47% 0.1 28.2 83% 4.1 24.7 72% 3.8 20.1 61% 1.2 33.0 67% 2.7 28.6 89% 8.2 28.1 58% 2.0 27.3 78% 5.1 30.2 56% 1.0 18.7 67% 2.7 24.7 72% 3.9 34.5 56% -1.8 38.2
Winnable 56% -0.1 22.7 61% 2.4 33.8 58% 1.3 21.0 56% 0.2 27.4 56% 1.1 19.2 61% 0.4 31.2 58% 2.3 25.8 83% 3.7 22.6 67% 3.4 19.9 67% 1.6 33.4 67% 2.6 29.7 89% 10.6 24.5 58% 3.2 25.2 78% 4.9 27.5 67% 4.1 14.9 72% 3.4 23.6 78% 4.9 31.3 44% 0.0 38.4
Drop Kick Data 50% -1.0 24.8 61% 2.7 30.6 53% 1.6 20.2 56% 1.0 25.8 50% 0.5 19.9 67% 0.4 30.7 53% 0.8 27.3 78% 3.9 22.0 61% 3.3 20.6 72% 3.3 31.5 67% 1.9 29.9 89% 10.0 22.7 58% 3.1 26.9 83% 6.1 25.3 72% 3.2 16.7 72% 3.5 22.7 78% 4.4 33.1 44% -1.0 38.8
Cheap Stats 56% -0.6 24.3 61% 1.7 32.3 63% 1.5 21.3 56% 0.5 27.7 56% 1.4 21.2 61% 0.2 29.8 58% 2.0 26.6 72% 2.4 21.1 61% 1.7 21.8 61% 1.4 32.6 56% 1.1 30.9 89% 10.8 22.6 68% 2.8 27.7 78% 5.4 29.1 72% 2.1 18.5 67% 2.2 24.4 78% 4.9 30.6 50% 0.1 38.4
The Footycast 50% -0.0 22.3 56% 0.3 32.5 53% 1.2 21.2 56% 0.6 25.9 67% 2.4 17.5 61% -0.2 31.1 53% 1.4 26.2 72% 1.7 25.7 72% 3.4 18.4 67% 1.1 32.7 72% 2.3 28.3 89% 9.4 22.7 58% 2.2 26.3 83% 4.6 28.8 56% 1.9 16.9 72% 2.7 22.9 78% 3.9 32.4 50% -1.1 39.1
PlusSixOne 61% 0.3 22.7 61% 0.9 30.5 53% 0.5 21.8 50% 0.4 23.5 72% 1.3 18.0 56% 0.2 31.6 58% 1.2 28.0 72% 2.3 26.6 72% 1.3 23.4 67% 1.0 33.6 67% 1.4 29.7 89% 5.5 30.6 63% 1.5 28.0 67% 1.8 34.8 61% 2.0 16.1 72% 1.7 27.3 78% 3.7 34.1 44% 0.3 36.4
footycharts 61% -0.9 25.5 56% 1.0 34.8 53% 1.1 21.8 61% 1.7 25.9 56% 1.1 20.2 72% 1.2 29.4 53% 0.7 28.0 67% 3.4 23.8 67% 1.8 21.6 67% 2.7 30.5 72% 2.9 29.1 89% 10.3 25.6 47% 3.1 26.7 83% 5.2 26.7 61% 2.7 16.4 72% 2.6 24.2 78% 4.5 30.7 39% 0.6 37.8
The Cruncher 50% -0.7 22.8 59% 2.4 31.5 53% 1.1 20.9 61% -0.0 25.3 56% 0.9 19.6 56% -0.6 31.5 53% 1.2 27.5 89% 4.5 21.8 61% 3.3 20.2 56% 2.9 30.7 53% -0.2 31.1 89% 10.5 24.2 63% 3.5 24.9 83% 5.6 27.3 72% 3.4 17.8 78% 3.0 23.9 78% 5.3 30.3 50% -0.8 38.3
Stattraction 50% -1.8 24.2 56% 1.1 31.9 53% 2.0 21.5 50% 0.2 25.0 67% 0.9 19.7 61% -0.7 31.0 68% 3.2 26.1 67% 2.1 26.5 44% 1.6 23.6 56% 0.6 32.3 72% 1.9 31.0 89% 10.9 25.1 58% 3.9 25.0 83% 5.0 26.9 72% 2.5 17.5 61% 1.1 28.3 78% 4.3 32.0 56% -0.2 37.2
ZaphBot 50% -3.3 27.9 67% 3.1 28.0 47% 2.0 19.9 67% 2.2 24.7 56% -1.0 21.1 50% -0.4 31.7 63% 2.1 25.5 72% 4.5 19.9 61% 3.3 18.8 56% 0.4 36.2 72% 1.7 28.9 84% 8.8 26.8 63% 3.7 22.6 83% 3.8 27.6 67% 2.1 16.7 61% 2.2 25.1 72% 4.7 27.9 39% -1.1 38.1