LEADERBOARD

After 5 games of Round 11, 2024.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Hyperion

1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 5

68 16.32 24.93 71.6%
What Snoo Thinks

3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 5

68 13.78 25.36 71.6%
Elo Predicts!

3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 5

68 13.05 24.93 71.6%
Live Ladders

3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 4

67 14.74 25.13 70.5%
s10

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 5

66 14.50 25.33 69.5%
Aggregate

3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 5

66 13.83 25.26 69.5%
AFLalytics

3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 4

66 13.71 25.90 69.5%
FMI

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 5

66 12.66 25.72 70.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 5

66 12.37 25.39 69.5%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 4

65 15.79 24.97 68.4%
Punters

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 5

65 14.63 25.07 68.4%
Cheap Stats

1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 5

65 13.33 25.81 68.4%
Massey Ratings

2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 5

65 11.79 25.48 68.4%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 5

65 10.18 27.20 68.4%
Winnable

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 4

64 14.32 25.38 67.4%
Glicko Ratings

3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 5

64 13.79 26.06 67.4%
Matter of Stats

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 4

64 12.94 25.86 67.4%
Graft

2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 5

64 12.78 25.98 67.4%
The Footycast

3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 5

64 11.31 25.79 67.4%
The Wooden Finger

3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 5

64 9.76 26.14 67.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 4

64 9.10 26.15 67.4%
Data by Josh

3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 5

63 19.08 24.55 69.2%
Drop Kick Data

3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 5

63 13.12 25.88 66.3%
The Cruncher

3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 5

63 12.38 26.19 66.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 4

63 11.87 25.89 66.3%
AFL Lab

3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 4

62 10.51 24.97 65.3%
Squiggle

2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 4

61 13.06 25.66 64.2%
ZaphBot

3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 5

61 10.19 25.77 64.2%
Stattraction

1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 5

61 9.91 26.60 64.2%
PlusSixOne

1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 4

61 6.96 28.18 64.2%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Hyperion 80% 0.1 19.2 50% -0.2 33.7 64% 0.2 15.0 55% 0.3 25.1 82% 2.8 16.5 82% 1.1 23.6 60% 1.3 19.0 82% 3.8 26.5 80% 2.0 27.0 80% 3.2 26.4 50% -0.3 24.9 100% 8.3 18.0 73% 2.4 25.3 73% 1.5 38.2 60% 1.4 17.7 82% 2.8 25.5 70% 1.8 31.6 64% 0.1 35.5
What Snoo Thinks 50% -1.0 20.5 60% 0.1 33.2 64% 0.1 16.3 73% 0.5 21.3 55% 0.6 20.4 82% 0.2 26.0 50% 0.1 24.4 91% 3.0 30.5 80% 2.5 25.5 80% 1.7 28.9 70% 0.3 21.5 100% 7.8 21.6 82% 3.4 21.1 82% 2.8 32.9 60% 1.5 16.5 82% 2.4 28.6 70% 1.9 30.6 55% -0.5 36.5
Elo Predicts! 70% 0.2 16.9 50% -0.4 32.6 73% 0.6 14.3 73% 1.1 20.8 64% 0.9 19.5 64% -0.5 28.1 60% 0.2 20.9 91% 3.3 29.4 70% 1.7 27.3 80% 2.8 25.0 60% -0.7 24.6 100% 7.5 18.5 82% 2.7 22.5 82% 1.6 35.8 60% 0.9 17.7 73% 2.6 28.1 70% 1.3 33.8 64% 0.2 32.7
Live Ladders 50% -0.8 20.0 60% 0.6 31.2 82% 0.7 15.6 73% 1.1 20.2 55% 0.4 18.5 82% 0.3 26.1 60% 0.1 23.3 91% 3.3 30.3 80% 2.3 24.7 80% 2.3 27.8 60% -0.1 24.3 100% 7.5 22.5 64% 3.2 22.5 82% 2.7 33.0 60% 1.7 15.0 73% 1.8 29.5 60% 2.6 30.3 55% -0.2 37.0
s10 60% -0.5 20.0 50% -0.1 34.1 64% 0.6 14.7 64% 0.6 23.5 55% 1.3 18.7 73% -0.0 27.8 50% -0.2 24.7 91% 3.7 27.2 80% 2.4 24.4 70% 2.2 28.9 60% -0.7 24.7 100% 7.7 19.8 73% 3.3 23.7 82% 2.5 32.9 60% 1.7 16.6 82% 2.4 28.6 70% 2.0 30.6 64% 0.0 35.2
Aggregate 60% -0.5 19.7 50% 0.0 33.5 64% 0.6 15.1 64% 0.7 22.6 55% 0.8 19.2 64% -0.1 27.2 60% 0.1 23.6 91% 3.6 28.2 80% 2.2 24.9 70% 2.2 29.0 60% -0.6 24.6 100% 7.4 20.6 73% 3.2 22.4 82% 2.4 33.3 60% 1.6 16.3 82% 2.4 28.5 70% 1.7 30.5 64% -0.1 35.5
AFLalytics 60% -0.2 20.9 60% -0.1 34.5 73% 0.3 15.0 64% 0.6 23.0 55% 0.7 18.2 73% 0.0 28.0 50% -0.5 26.6 91% 4.4 27.9 80% 2.3 25.5 70% 1.9 30.2 70% -0.7 24.8 100% 7.5 24.0 73% 3.3 23.3 82% 2.2 32.9 60% 1.5 18.1 64% 2.4 28.5 70% 2.3 28.4 55% -0.6 36.5
FMI 60% -0.4 19.7 50% 0.3 32.0 70% 1.3 13.4 64% 0.9 23.0 64% 0.0 23.8 64% -0.7 28.2 60% 0.4 22.5 91% 3.5 24.9 70% 1.7 27.2 80% 2.6 27.0 67% -0.5 26.2 100% 6.8 18.3 73% 3.1 24.5 82% 1.8 33.5 60% 1.0 19.1 64% 2.0 30.8 70% 1.2 35.3 73% 0.4 32.8
Don't Blame the Data 60% -1.0 23.7 50% -0.8 35.8 64% 0.2 14.6 64% 0.5 23.2 64% 1.2 16.3 55% -0.3 28.2 60% 0.7 21.1 91% 3.0 29.9 80% 2.1 25.3 90% 2.7 28.0 50% -1.0 25.2 100% 7.1 19.0 73% 3.1 23.9 73% 1.9 33.5 70% 1.4 15.3 73% 2.5 26.3 70% 1.5 31.4 64% -0.1 36.6
Wheelo Ratings 50% -0.5 19.3 50% -0.2 33.6 64% 0.3 14.3 64% 0.2 24.6 64% 1.0 19.5 64% 0.2 27.8 60% 0.8 22.4 91% 5.1 25.1 70% 2.4 25.5 70% 2.5 28.7 60% -1.5 25.2 100% 9.1 16.6 73% 3.9 21.9 82% 2.9 31.5 70% 2.4 16.5 73% 2.1 30.4 70% 1.3 30.9 55% -0.3 35.9
Punters 60% -0.7 19.1 40% -0.9 34.7 64% -0.0 15.2 64% 0.2 24.0 64% 1.3 20.3 73% 0.2 26.7 50% -0.4 24.4 91% 5.1 24.2 70% 2.2 25.1 80% 2.6 28.7 50% -1.0 24.1 100% 8.4 17.7 73% 3.3 22.1 82% 3.5 32.5 50% 2.0 18.9 82% 2.3 28.9 70% 1.6 29.4 64% -0.5 35.8
Cheap Stats 60% -0.0 19.4 60% 0.3 32.6 73% 0.8 15.0 55% -0.1 25.9 64% 1.4 21.5 73% 0.1 25.2 50% 0.1 24.4 82% 3.1 25.5 70% 1.7 25.8 80% 2.3 28.3 40% -1.0 26.3 100% 7.8 17.7 73% 2.4 25.9 73% 2.5 36.3 70% 1.2 19.3 73% 2.0 28.5 70% 1.7 31.3 64% 0.3 35.8
Massey Ratings 70% 0.2 16.3 50% 0.9 31.8 64% 0.6 16.0 55% 0.9 22.0 64% 0.3 18.7 55% -0.4 25.3 70% 1.1 20.9 91% 3.2 31.0 70% 2.1 25.0 80% 1.8 30.2 70% -0.9 24.6 100% 7.5 21.3 64% 2.6 22.5 73% 0.7 38.3 50% 1.3 16.1 82% 3.1 26.9 70% -0.1 33.6 55% -1.2 37.7
AFL Scorigami 60% -0.9 19.5 60% -0.5 36.2 64% 0.3 16.4 64% 0.7 21.4 55% -0.3 21.4 82% 0.4 24.9 50% -1.4 26.5 91% 3.1 33.4 70% 2.5 25.0 70% 0.6 31.9 60% -0.1 24.0 100% 6.2 33.7 64% 2.3 24.7 73% 3.1 34.2 60% 0.9 16.8 73% 2.4 28.0 70% 1.7 33.9 64% -0.8 37.5
Winnable 60% -0.7 19.1 50% -0.6 35.3 64% 0.8 14.8 64% 0.3 23.2 55% 0.8 19.5 64% 0.2 27.4 60% 0.6 23.1 100% 4.0 26.9 70% 2.4 24.7 80% 1.7 30.7 50% -0.7 25.2 100% 8.2 20.0 73% 3.5 21.7 73% 2.4 33.3 60% 1.8 14.5 73% 2.5 28.8 70% 1.8 31.4 45% -0.2 37.3
Glicko Ratings 50% -1.0 21.4 50% -0.5 35.8 64% -0.1 15.9 64% 0.5 22.7 64% 1.8 18.6 55% 0.4 26.9 40% -0.9 26.6 91% 4.1 27.0 70% 2.6 25.8 80% 2.4 28.1 60% -0.9 25.6 100% 7.9 23.3 73% 3.5 22.8 73% 1.4 35.4 70% 2.0 17.6 82% 2.7 27.9 70% 1.9 31.9 55% -0.3 36.1
Matter of Stats 60% -0.7 21.2 50% -0.7 35.0 64% -0.2 16.9 64% 0.3 23.5 55% 1.0 19.3 64% 0.1 27.3 50% -1.2 27.0 91% 4.3 26.5 80% 3.0 24.3 70% 2.0 29.2 60% -0.3 23.4 100% 7.5 22.6 73% 3.3 22.9 82% 2.4 32.7 60% 1.6 17.3 73% 2.1 28.8 70% 1.8 30.8 45% -0.4 36.8
Graft 50% -0.5 21.2 50% -0.4 35.1 73% 1.1 12.1 64% 0.8 22.7 73% 2.0 19.8 55% -1.1 31.1 50% -0.0 23.2 82% 3.0 26.6 80% 2.2 23.2 80% 2.5 27.5 50% -0.7 24.5 100% 6.7 19.5 73% 3.1 28.1 73% 2.0 35.4 50% 0.3 20.4 82% 2.7 28.1 70% 1.5 36.2 55% 0.5 33.3
The Footycast 50% -0.2 18.3 50% -0.4 35.6 55% 0.4 16.0 55% 0.0 23.5 73% 1.7 18.2 64% -0.1 26.7 50% -0.2 24.6 82% 2.1 32.6 90% 2.6 22.2 80% 1.1 30.4 60% -0.5 24.1 100% 7.0 19.1 64% 2.2 23.6 82% 2.2 35.5 50% 1.1 17.1 82% 2.8 26.2 70% 1.5 33.6 55% -0.7 36.9
The Wooden Finger 60% -1.6 21.0 50% -0.0 32.4 45% 0.8 15.9 64% 0.6 22.0 55% -2.7 28.1 73% -1.2 28.3 50% -0.4 24.5 82% 3.6 27.3 60% 1.9 25.6 70% 1.9 29.1 70% -0.5 22.7 100% 7.7 21.5 91% 3.7 21.8 82% 2.8 33.6 50% 0.4 20.5 73% 2.5 31.5 70% 0.4 30.9 64% -0.4 33.5
Informed Stats 50% -0.2 19.8 40% 0.1 33.3 55% 0.6 15.1 55% 0.8 22.4 73% 0.4 26.1 55% -2.9 30.1 60% 1.0 21.0 91% 3.7 28.1 60% 1.6 27.0 80% 2.1 28.4 50% -2.6 26.7 100% 7.3 20.3 82% 3.5 22.1 82% 1.8 32.7 70% 2.1 17.1 73% 2.5 27.9 70% -3.2 36.7 64% -0.3 36.0
Data by Josh 30% -1.6 21.5 60% 0.9 31.1 50% 0.5 16.1 73% 1.3 21.7 64% 1.5 19.7 60% 0.3 25.4 50% -0.6 23.0 90% 4.6 21.4 70% 3.0 25.9 80% 2.4 30.1 50% -0.3 26.2 100% 8.5 19.9 80% 4.1 24.8 82% 4.5 31.5 80% 3.2 16.5 89% 2.5 23.4 70% 3.0 30.0 64% 0.5 32.9
Drop Kick Data 50% -1.0 20.5 50% 0.3 32.6 55% 0.2 15.6 64% 0.5 23.4 55% 0.6 20.7 64% -0.3 28.2 50% -0.4 24.0 91% 3.8 27.9 60% 2.1 25.9 70% 2.0 30.7 60% -0.6 24.8 100% 7.7 19.3 73% 3.2 24.8 82% 2.8 31.7 70% 2.2 16.2 73% 2.6 27.5 70% 1.5 34.3 55% -1.0 37.9
The Cruncher 50% -1.2 19.7 50% 0.3 34.7 55% 0.7 14.3 64% 0.1 22.0 64% 0.7 20.9 55% -0.5 28.3 40% -0.9 26.5 91% 3.8 28.3 70% 2.0 26.2 70% 2.3 28.0 50% -1.5 25.7 100% 7.6 24.1 73% 3.3 23.1 82% 1.9 34.9 70% 2.0 19.5 82% 3.1 28.3 70% 1.4 31.3 55% -0.4 35.8
footycharts 60% -1.4 23.6 50% -1.0 35.4 55% 0.1 16.7 64% 0.9 22.2 55% 0.1 21.6 82% 0.1 26.7 40% -0.7 26.2 82% 3.1 29.5 70% 1.8 25.4 80% 2.2 27.6 60% -0.4 24.2 100% 7.6 19.9 73% 3.3 23.2 82% 2.7 32.6 60% 1.3 15.4 73% 2.0 30.2 70% 1.7 29.9 36% 0.1 35.9
AFL Lab 50% -1.1 21.1 50% -0.9 34.1 64% 1.2 12.4 64% 0.7 22.4 64% -0.3 18.0 73% -0.4 29.7 60% 0.1 23.3 82% 3.4 28.7 50% 0.8 23.5 80% 2.2 26.8 60% -2.3 27.8 100% 7.8 16.4 73% 3.4 24.1 82% 1.9 31.7 40% 1.3 16.8 55% 1.7 30.7 70% 1.5 27.3 55% -0.1 34.9
Squiggle 50% -0.4 19.3 50% -0.1 34.7 55% -0.3 16.7 64% 0.4 24.8 64% 1.0 17.6 55% -0.6 29.0 50% 0.6 22.7 82% 2.9 30.9 80% 2.4 23.7 80% 2.0 30.2 50% 0.3 21.9 100% 7.0 23.6 73% 3.4 20.9 82% 1.9 32.8 50% 1.6 15.9 45% 1.1 32.7 70% 2.5 29.4 55% 0.4 34.4
ZaphBot 50% -2.4 25.8 70% 1.7 28.4 45% 0.8 15.3 73% 1.9 20.3 45% -1.8 25.1 55% -0.7 27.7 50% 0.3 23.8 82% 3.7 26.0 70% 2.3 24.0 60% 0.8 34.6 60% -0.6 25.2 91% 5.3 28.5 82% 3.5 18.1 82% 2.1 33.5 60% 1.1 16.3 64% 1.5 30.3 60% 1.6 25.8 55% -0.6 35.1
Stattraction 40% -0.7 18.9 50% -0.0 33.8 55% 0.6 17.1 45% -0.5 22.9 55% -0.9 22.9 64% -0.7 27.4 60% 0.6 22.6 82% 2.9 32.9 50% 0.9 29.2 70% 2.1 29.7 60% -1.0 24.9 100% 7.8 22.4 73% 3.8 21.5 82% 2.5 32.5 70% 1.4 16.4 64% 1.4 34.1 70% -0.2 33.2 64% -0.3 36.0
PlusSixOne 50% -0.2 19.2 60% -0.1 36.9 55% 0.3 16.2 64% 0.4 21.0 73% 0.7 18.6 55% -0.0 26.8 50% 0.1 24.9 73% 1.8 35.4 80% 1.1 28.2 80% 0.9 31.1 50% -0.4 26.4 100% 3.3 40.0 73% 1.8 24.8 55% 0.6 38.1 50% 0.7 15.0 73% 1.2 30.8 70% 1.7 35.3 45% 0.1 37.5