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Welcome AFLalytics!

Posted on January 11, 2019January 11, 2019 by Max Barry

Our first new entry for 2019 is AFLalytics, who started publishing articles last year and is now up and running with a Brownian Motion-inspired Elo model.

AFLalytics also has some very nifty visualizations and apps, which are definitely worth your time during an off-season filled with stupid non-football sports.

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 17.3 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Fremantle 17.1 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Geelong 15.5 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Hawthorn 15.2 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Brisbane Lions 13.7 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
6
 Gold Coast 13.5 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Melbourne 13.2 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Adelaide 12.9 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
9
 Collingwood 11.7 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 Western Bulldogs 11.8 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
11
 St Kilda 11.0 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
12
 GWS 9.9 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
13
 Port Adelaide 9.1 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Carlton 8.1 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 West Coast 7.1 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
17
 Essendon 5.0 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 5.1 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 3 games of Round 11, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 10 1 – 135.5%
+7.1
2
2
 Sydney 9∗ 1 – 152.2%
+8.3
1
3
 Hawthorn 7 3 1 110.4%
+7.7
4
4
 Geelong 7∗ 3 – 123.5%
+8.5
3
5
 Gold Coast 7∗ 3 – 119.9%
+6.5
6
6
 Melbourne 7∗ 3 – 107.6%
+6.2
7
7
 Brisbane Lions 6∗ 4 – 116.6%
+7.7
5
8
 Adelaide 6 5 – 107.9%
+6.9
8
9
 St Kilda 5 6 – 108.2%
+6.0
11
10
 Western Bulldogs 5∗ 5 – 91.7%
+6.8
10
11
 Collingwood 4∗ 5 1 99.1%
+7.2
9
12
 North Melbourne 4∗ 6 – 96.7%
+5.4
14
13
 GWS 4∗ 6 – 90.1%
+5.9
12
14
 Port Adelaide 3∗ 7 – 105.2%
+6.1
13
15
 West Coast 3∗ 7 – 64.2%
+4.1
16
16
 Carlton 2∗ 8 – 81.8%
+6.1
15
17
 Richmond 2 9 – 64.5%
+3.1
18
18
 Essendon 1 10 – 70.9%
+4.0
17

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 2

75 24.8863 24.89 24.3227 24.32 80.6452 80.6%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 2

74 25.4877 25.49 25.6292 25.63 79.5699 79.6%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 3

73 16.8923 16.89 25.5000 25.50 78.4946 78.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 2

72 25.2529 25.25 25.4923 25.49 77.4194 77.4%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 2

72 22.4319 22.43 26.1457 26.15 77.4194 77.4%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 2

71 25.9778 25.98 25.0888 25.09 76.3441 76.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 2

71 24.4916 24.49 26.2258 26.23 76.3441 76.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 2

71 23.5023 23.50 25.5430 25.54 76.3441 76.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 2

71 18.7307 18.73 26.2688 26.27 76.3441 76.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 2

70 25.9205 25.92 25.8945 25.89 75.2688 75.3%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 2

70 25.6767 25.68 26.3884 26.39 75.2688 75.3%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 2

70 24.1915 24.19 25.9003 25.90 75.2688 75.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 2

70 22.5990 22.60 25.8394 25.84 75.2688 75.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 2

69 22.8068 22.81 26.1323 26.13 74.1935 74.2%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 2

69 22.7509 22.75 27.3978 27.40 74.1935 74.2%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 2

69 22.3875 22.39 26.2867 26.29 74.1935 74.2%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 2

69 21.7361 21.74 26.3886 26.39 74.1935 74.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 2

68 20.8761 20.88 27.3230 27.32 73.1183 73.1%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 2

68 20.7782 20.78 26.0602 26.06 73.1183 73.1%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 2

66 22.9413 22.94 25.5502 25.55 70.9677 71.0%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 2

66 22.9207 22.92 26.8848 26.88 70.9677 71.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 2

66 22.5084 22.51 26.1169 26.12 70.9677 71.0%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 2

66 21.7445 21.74 26.5161 26.52 70.9677 71.0%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 2

66 21.5192 21.52 26.8280 26.83 70.9677 71.0%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 2

66 20.6877 20.69 28.3226 28.32 70.9677 71.0%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 2

65 19.3764 19.38 26.2151 26.22 69.8925 69.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 2

64 18.9526 18.95 26.5917 26.59 68.8172 68.8%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 2

64 18.2469 18.25 26.4828 26.48 68.8172 68.8%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 2

62 17.3631 17.36 26.8172 26.82 66.6667 66.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 2

60 17.1462 17.15 26.8452 26.85 †9 71.4286 71.4%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 2

50 19.4882 19.49 27.3676 27.37 †25 73.5294 73.5%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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