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Welcome AFLalytics!

Posted on January 11, 2019January 11, 2019 by Max Barry

Our first new entry for 2019 is AFLalytics, who started publishing articles last year and is now up and running with a Brownian Motion-inspired Elo model.

AFLalytics also has some very nifty visualizations and apps, which are definitely worth your time during an off-season filled with stupid non-football sports.

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 16.1 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 14.8 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–5
3
 Gold Coast 14.8 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
4
 Geelong 14.1 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
5
 Brisbane Lions 13.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Fremantle 13.9 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
7
 Sydney 13.4 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
8
 Adelaide 12.3 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
9
 Collingwood 12.0 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Melbourne 11.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
11
 GWS 10.9 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 St Kilda 10.2 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
13
 North Melbourne 10.1 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 West Coast 9.4 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–16
15
 Port Adelaide 9.1 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 Carlton 8.5 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–16
17
 Essendon 6.3 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 6.3 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 3 games of Round 4, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Gold Coast 3∗ – – 191.0%
+11.8
3
2
 Western Bulldogs 3∗ – – 137.2%
+13.1
1
3
 Fremantle 3 1 – 133.4%
+10.9
6
4
 North Melbourne 3 1 – 115.3%
+7.1
13
5
 Sydney 2∗ 1 – 139.5%
+11.4
7
6
 Hawthorn 2∗ 1 – 118.1%
+12.8
2
7
 Brisbane Lions 2 2 – 110.6%
+11.8
5
8
 Melbourne 2∗ 1 – 96.0%
+9.0
10
9
 Collingwood 2 2 – 93.1%
+10.0
9
10
 West Coast 2∗ 1 – 87.3%
+7.4
14
11
 Geelong 2∗ 1 – 86.7%
+12.1
4
12
 Port Adelaide 1∗ 2 – 105.5%
+8.1
15
13
 Adelaide 1 3 – 99.4%
+11.3
8
14
 St Kilda 1 3 – 86.0%
+9.2
12
15
 Carlton 1 3 – 76.9%
+7.5
16
16
 GWS 1 3 – 76.9%
+9.9
11
17
 Essendon –∗ 3 – 61.8%
+6.3
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 3 – 56.9%
+6.3
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 2

24 6.9362 6.94 22.2935 22.29 77.4194 77.4%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 1

24 4.1234 4.12 24.7552 24.76 77.4194 77.4%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 2

23 6.7032 6.70 24.5623 24.56 74.1935 74.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 1

23 5.7274 5.73 24.0819 24.08 74.1935 74.2%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 1

22 7.0571 7.06 23.6548 23.65 70.9677 71.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 2

22 6.8862 6.89 24.0332 24.03 70.9677 71.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 1

22 6.3753 6.38 23.8394 23.84 70.9677 71.0%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 1

22 5.3571 5.36 23.9977 24.00 70.9677 71.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 2

22 5.1774 5.18 24.6981 24.70 70.9677 71.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 1

22 5.0256 5.03 23.4194 23.42 70.9677 71.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 1

22 4.5699 4.57 25.3355 25.34 70.9677 71.0%
s10

2 8 5 5 1

21 6.6533 6.65 23.8058 23.81 67.7419 67.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 1

21 6.5005 6.50 24.0826 24.08 67.7419 67.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 1

21 5.4720 5.47 24.1461 24.15 67.7419 67.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 1

21 4.7386 4.74 25.0000 25.00 67.7419 67.7%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 1

21 4.5157 4.52 26.4194 26.42 67.7419 67.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 1

20 6.8635 6.86 24.4665 24.47 64.5161 64.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 2

20 5.9587 5.96 23.7774 23.78 64.5161 64.5%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 1

20 5.0407 5.04 24.3652 24.37 64.5161 64.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 1

20 4.4625 4.46 25.9677 25.97 64.5161 64.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 1

20 3.9331 3.93 26.5274 26.53 64.5161 64.5%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 2

20 2.0163 2.02 28.6129 28.61 64.5161 64.5%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 1

19 5.2783 5.28 24.3326 24.33 61.2903 61.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 1

19 4.9896 4.99 25.0645 25.06 61.2903 61.3%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 2

19 4.4841 4.48 25.0635 25.06 61.2903 61.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 1

19 3.6152 3.62 26.7806 26.78 61.2903 61.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 1

19 2.4987 2.50 26.8226 26.82 61.2903 61.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 1

18 5.3676 5.37 25.3177 25.32 58.0645 58.1%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 1

18 2.3682 2.37 27.7419 27.74 58.0645 58.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5

17 0.6310 0.63 27.4286 27.43 †3 60.7143 60.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †19 50.0000 50.0%

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Friends of Squiggle

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  • AFLalytics
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