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The Tips Are Coming In

Posted on September 27, 2017September 27, 2017 by Max Barry

We have our first computer model Tiger tip! It’s from Matter of Stats.

Matter of Stats post on the tip.

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Matter of Stats, Squiggle

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Wins % Range
1
 Hawthorn 16.3 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Sydney 15.7 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–5
3
 Western Bulldogs 15.7 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
4
 Fremantle 15.0 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.7 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
6
 Geelong 14.1 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
7
 Gold Coast 13.1 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Adelaide 12.4 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 Collingwood 11.7 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 GWS 11.3 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
11
 Melbourne 10.8 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–13
12
 St Kilda 10.6 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–13
13
 North Melbourne 9.7 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Port Adelaide 8.8 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Carlton 7.8 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–17
16
 West Coast 7.4 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
17
 Essendon 7.1 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
18
 Richmond 4.9 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 5, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 4 1 – 175.5%
+11.7
2
2
 Fremantle 4 1 – 131.4%
+11.0
4
3
 Hawthorn 4 1 – 121.0%
+12.3
1
4
 Western Bulldogs 4 1 – 120.7%
+11.7
3
5
 Gold Coast 3 2 – 132.0%
+10.1
7
6
 Brisbane Lions 3 2 – 115.0%
+11.7
5
7
 North Melbourne 3 2 – 105.9%
+6.7
13
8
 Geelong 3 2 – 101.5%
+11.1
6
9
 Melbourne 3 2 – 92.7%
+7.8
11
10
 Port Adelaide 2 3 – 110.6%
+6.8
14
11
 Adelaide 2 3 – 106.4%
+10.4
8
12
 GWS 2 3 – 92.5%
+9.3
10
13
 Collingwood 2 3 – 92.3%
+9.7
9
14
 St Kilda 2 3 – 91.2%
+8.6
12
15
 West Coast 2 3 – 64.3%
+5.4
16
16
 Carlton 1 4 – 76.6%
+6.8
15
17
 Essendon 1 4 – 76.0%
+6.1
17
18
 Richmond – 5 – 56.4%
+4.9
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8

36 11.6205 11.62 23.5582 23.56 80.0000 80.0%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8

35 11.4345 11.43 25.4524 25.45 77.7778 77.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8

35 6.4778 6.48 25.3136 25.31 77.7778 77.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8

34 11.0839 11.08 24.7076 24.71 75.5556 75.6%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7

33 11.5880 11.59 24.6507 24.65 73.3333 73.3%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8

33 10.9360 10.94 24.6147 24.61 73.3333 73.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8

33 10.5215 10.52 25.3778 25.38 73.3333 73.3%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7

33 10.5000 10.50 24.6800 24.68 73.3333 73.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8

33 9.2784 9.28 24.8187 24.82 73.3333 73.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8

33 8.6429 8.64 26.4000 26.40 73.3333 73.3%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8

32 10.5004 10.50 25.0178 25.02 71.1111 71.1%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6

32 9.2994 9.30 25.5031 25.50 71.1111 71.1%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7

32 8.9808 8.98 26.0960 26.10 71.1111 71.1%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6

32 8.6262 8.63 25.4767 25.48 71.1111 71.1%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6

32 8.4961 8.50 25.4327 25.43 71.1111 71.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6

32 8.1987 8.20 26.0667 26.07 71.1111 71.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7

31 8.0492 8.05 26.2000 26.20 68.8889 68.9%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6

31 5.6080 5.61 25.9956 26.00 68.8889 68.9%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7

31 5.2974 5.30 27.3111 27.31 68.8889 68.9%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6

30 10.5834 10.58 25.5260 25.53 66.6667 66.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7

29 9.4438 9.44 25.8980 25.90 64.4444 64.4%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7

29 9.1793 9.18 25.8942 25.89 64.4444 64.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6

29 9.0172 9.02 26.8222 26.82 64.4444 64.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6

29 8.6043 8.60 25.6264 25.63 64.4444 64.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5

29 7.3165 7.32 27.8000 27.80 64.4444 64.4%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5

28 7.5136 7.51 25.9087 25.91 62.2222 62.2%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5

28 6.5966 6.60 26.7400 26.74 62.2222 62.2%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5

28 5.0739 5.07 27.2689 27.27 62.2222 62.2%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4

25 5.4178 5.42 27.8000 27.80 55.5556 55.6%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5

22 2.3415 2.34 26.0278 26.03 †9 61.1111 61.1%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5

11 2.8787 2.88 30.5500 30.55 †25 55.0000 55.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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