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The Tips Are Coming In

Posted on September 27, 2017September 27, 2017 by Max Barry

We have our first computer model Tiger tip! It’s from Matter of Stats.

Matter of Stats post on the tip.

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Matter of Stats, Squiggle

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Wins % Range
1
 Adelaide 16.7 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Collingwood 17.0 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Geelong 15.9 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Gold Coast 15.3 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 GWS 15.1 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Fremantle 15.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
8
 Hawthorn 14.7 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
9
 Western Bulldogs 14.0 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
10
 Sydney 11.3 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Port Adelaide 9.7 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Carlton 9.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Melbourne 8.4 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 St Kilda 7.6 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Essendon 7.3 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 North Melbourne 6.1 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 6.2 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 1.7 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 5 games of Round 20, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 14∗ 4 – 133.7%
+3.0
2
2
 Brisbane Lions 13 5 1 110.8%
+2.4
4
3
 Adelaide 13∗ 5 – 139.6%
+3.7
1
4
 Hawthorn 13 6 – 119.9%
+1.7
8
5
 GWS 13 6 – 118.4%
+2.1
6
6
 Fremantle 13 6 – 111.7%
+2.1
7
7
 Geelong 12∗ 6 – 128.2%
+3.9
3
8
 Gold Coast 12∗ 6 – 119.5%
+3.3
5
9
 Western Bulldogs 11 8 – 132.6%
+3.0
9
10
 Sydney 9 10 – 93.9%
+2.3
10
11
 Port Adelaide 8∗ 10 – 88.0%
+1.7
11
12
 Carlton 7 12 – 93.3%
+2.0
12
13
 Melbourne 6∗ 12 – 89.7%
+2.4
13
14
 Essendon 6∗ 12 – 71.7%
+1.3
15
15
 St Kilda 5∗ 13 – 85.3%
+2.6
14
16
 Richmond 5∗ 13 – 68.5%
+1.2
17
17
 North Melbourne 4∗ 13 1 76.1%
+1.6
16
18
 West Coast 1 18 – 63.5%
+0.7
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 4

125 34.76 25.52 75.3%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 4

124 29.32 26.45 74.7%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 4

123 34.47 25.35 74.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 4

123 33.61 25.53 74.1%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 4

123 33.34 25.43 74.1%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 4

123 33.00 25.56 74.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 4

123 32.41 26.52 74.1%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 4

122 34.15 25.63 73.5%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 4

122 32.81 25.51 73.5%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 4

119 34.43 26.24 71.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 4

119 32.28 26.81 71.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 4

119 31.01 26.16 71.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 4

119 29.90 26.28 71.7%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 4

118 35.31 25.16 71.1%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 4

118 32.84 25.84 71.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 4

117 34.95 25.01 70.5%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 4

117 34.08 25.12 70.5%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 4

117 29.41 25.91 70.5%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 4

116 23.74 27.62 69.9%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 3

115 30.19 26.28 69.3%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 4

115 30.15 26.51 69.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 4

114 33.17 25.93 68.7%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 3

114 27.88 27.14 68.7%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 4

114 27.57 27.06 68.7%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 4

113 29.15 26.34 68.1%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 4

113 27.98 27.46 68.1%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 4

112 16.85 28.73 67.5%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 4

107 26.07 27.46 64.5%

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