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The Tips Are Coming In

Posted on September 27, 2017September 27, 2017 by Max Barry

We have our first computer model Tiger tip! It’s from Matter of Stats.

Matter of Stats post on the tip.

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Matter of Stats, Squiggle

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Wins % Range
1
 Hawthorn 16.4 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Sydney 15.9 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Geelong 15.3 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
4
 Fremantle 15.2 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.6 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Brisbane Lions 14.0 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
7
 Gold Coast 13.0 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
8
 Adelaide 12.7 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 Collingwood 11.8 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Melbourne 11.6 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–12
11
 GWS 11.1 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
12
 St Kilda 10.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–13
13
 North Melbourne 10.2 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
14
 Port Adelaide 8.9 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
15
 Carlton 7.6 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–16
16
 Essendon 6.9 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
17
 West Coast 7.1 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
18
 Richmond 4.2 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 6, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 5 1 – 173.3%
+10.9
2
2
 Fremantle 5 1 – 142.7%
+10.2
4
3
 Hawthorn 5 1 – 118.2%
+11.4
1
4
 Gold Coast 4 2 – 126.9%
+9.0
7
5
 North Melbourne 4 2 – 120.8%
+6.2
13
6
 Geelong 4 2 – 116.1%
+11.3
3
7
 Western Bulldogs 4 2 – 102.0%
+10.6
5
8
 Melbourne 4 2 – 94.2%
+7.6
10
9
 Brisbane Lions 3 3 – 111.7%
+11.0
6
10
 Adelaide 3 3 – 105.3%
+9.7
8
11
 Collingwood 3 3 – 94.8%
+8.8
9
12
 Port Adelaide 2 4 – 108.1%
+6.9
14
13
 St Kilda 2 4 – 92.6%
+8.4
12
14
 GWS 2 4 – 86.8%
+9.1
11
15
 West Coast 2 4 – 61.3%
+5.1
17
16
 Carlton 1 5 – 79.2%
+6.6
15
17
 Essendon 1 5 – 79.1%
+5.9
16
18
 Richmond – 6 – 53.6%
+4.2
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8

44 14.3449 14.34 24.0807 24.08 81.4815 81.5%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8

43 14.4931 14.49 25.8231 25.82 79.6296 79.6%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8

43 9.2793 9.28 25.3385 25.34 79.6296 79.6%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8

42 13.9280 13.93 25.5363 25.54 77.7778 77.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8

41 14.9000 14.90 26.4213 26.42 75.9259 75.9%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8

41 14.4802 14.48 25.4369 25.44 75.9259 75.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8

41 14.2988 14.30 25.3072 25.31 75.9259 75.9%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8

41 12.8678 12.87 25.5978 25.60 75.9259 75.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7

40 15.2786 15.28 25.6698 25.67 74.0741 74.1%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8

40 14.0017 14.00 24.8794 24.88 74.0741 74.1%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8

40 12.7624 12.76 26.5663 26.57 74.0741 74.1%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8

40 12.6619 12.66 26.1941 26.19 74.0741 74.1%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7

40 12.6168 12.62 27.2778 27.28 74.0741 74.1%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8

40 11.6430 11.64 25.5009 25.50 74.0741 74.1%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7

39 12.7098 12.71 25.8081 25.81 72.2222 72.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8

39 12.1364 12.14 26.6111 26.61 72.2222 72.2%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7

39 11.8200 11.82 27.6852 27.69 72.2222 72.2%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8

39 9.9169 9.92 26.5037 26.50 72.2222 72.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8

39 8.3009 8.30 27.5741 27.57 72.2222 72.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8

38 13.7440 13.74 26.7539 26.75 70.3704 70.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8

37 12.8972 12.90 26.1272 26.13 68.5185 68.5%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8

37 12.2020 12.20 27.9630 27.96 68.5185 68.5%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7

36 12.0332 12.03 26.2878 26.29 66.6667 66.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8

36 11.3453 11.35 27.2548 27.25 66.6667 66.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7

36 11.2074 11.21 29.2222 29.22 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7

36 10.9174 10.92 26.0180 26.02 66.6667 66.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8

36 9.9036 9.90 26.9352 26.94 66.6667 66.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8

36 8.7125 8.71 27.3148 27.31 66.6667 66.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7

32 8.2903 8.29 27.8148 27.81 59.2593 59.3%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8

30 5.8460 5.85 27.5778 27.58 †9 66.6667 66.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8

19 6.8481 6.85 30.2931 30.29 †25 65.5172 65.5%

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