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The Tips Are Coming In

Posted on September 27, 2017September 27, 2017 by Max Barry

We have our first computer model Tiger tip! It’s from Matter of Stats.

Matter of Stats post on the tip.

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Matter of Stats, Squiggle

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.5 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.0 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Brisbane Lions 15.2 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Western Bulldogs 14.7 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
5
 Adelaide 14.7 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Gold Coast 14.8 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
7
 Hawthorn 13.2 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
8
 Fremantle 13.1 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
9
 GWS 12.9 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
10
 Carlton 10.5 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 Melbourne 10.4 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
12
 Sydney 10.2 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–14
13
 Essendon 10.2 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
14
 St Kilda 9.0 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Port Adelaide 8.9 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 North Melbourne 5.9 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.8 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 4.2 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 4 games of Round 12, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 10 2 – 136.9%
+7.5
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 9 2 1 114.0%
+5.7
3
3
 Gold Coast 8∗ 3 – 127.8%
+6.8
6
4
 Adelaide 7∗ 4 – 130.6%
+7.7
5
5
 Geelong 7∗ 4 – 122.0%
+9.0
2
6
 Hawthorn 7 5 – 110.2%
+6.2
7
7
 GWS 7 5 – 109.4%
+5.9
9
8
 Fremantle 7 5 – 106.4%
+6.1
8
9
 Western Bulldogs 6∗ 5 – 126.5%
+8.7
4
10
 Essendon 6∗ 5 – 84.6%
+4.2
13
11
 Melbourne 5∗ 6 – 89.3%
+5.4
11
12
 Carlton 4∗ 7 – 102.8%
+6.5
10
13
 Sydney 4∗ 7 – 93.2%
+6.2
12
14
 St Kilda 4∗ 7 – 89.8%
+5.0
14
15
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 7 – 79.1%
+4.9
15
16
 Richmond 3 9 – 71.1%
+2.8
17
17
 North Melbourne 2∗ 8 1 78.1%
+3.4
16
18
 West Coast 1∗ 10 – 64.6%
+3.2
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 3

77 17.09 26.84 75.5%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 3

77 16.80 27.20 75.5%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 3

76 18.05 26.85 74.5%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 3

75 17.85 27.01 73.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 3

75 17.18 27.45 73.5%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 3

75 16.26 27.14 73.5%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 3

75 15.97 27.74 73.5%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 3

74 16.46 26.91 72.5%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 3

74 16.25 27.14 72.5%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 3

74 15.49 28.41 72.5%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 3

74 14.99 27.52 72.5%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 3

73 18.87 26.58 71.6%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 3

72 17.90 26.57 70.6%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 3

72 16.37 27.44 70.6%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 3

72 14.86 27.88 70.6%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 3

72 14.15 28.93 70.6%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 3

72 12.80 27.36 70.6%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 3

71 15.55 27.82 69.6%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 3

71 13.58 28.19 69.6%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 2

71 13.46 28.59 69.6%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 2

70 15.80 26.79 68.6%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 3

69 9.02 29.70 67.6%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 3

67 12.83 28.12 65.7%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 3

67 12.30 28.89 65.7%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 3

66 11.65 29.27 64.7%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 2

65 12.02 28.40 63.7%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 3

65 7.98 29.39 63.7%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 1

59 11.11 28.07†12 65.6%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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