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The Tips Are Coming In

Posted on September 27, 2017September 27, 2017 by Max Barry

We have our first computer model Tiger tip! It’s from Matter of Stats.

Matter of Stats post on the tip.

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Matter of Stats, Squiggle

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 17.0 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Gold Coast 15.4 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
3
 Hawthorn 15.1 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–7
4
 Geelong 14.4 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
5
 Adelaide 14.2 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–9
6
 Brisbane Lions 13.5 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–9
7
 Sydney 13.2 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–10
8
 Fremantle 13.2 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–10
9
 Collingwood 12.8 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
10
 GWS 12.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
11
 St Kilda 10.4 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
12
 Melbourne 10.2 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–16
13
 Port Adelaide 9.4 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Carlton 9.3 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 North Melbourne 8.3 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 6.9 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–18
17
 Richmond 5.7 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Essendon 5.6 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–18

After Round 2, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Gold Coast 3 – – 191.0%
+12.4
2
2
 Western Bulldogs 3 – – 137.2%
+14.0
1
3
 Sydney 2 1 – 139.5%
+11.2
7
4
 Hawthorn 2 1 – 118.1%
+13.1
3
5
 Fremantle 1∗ 1 – 121.1%
+12.2
8
6
 North Melbourne 1∗ 1 – 116.3%
+7.3
15
7
 Port Adelaide 1∗ 1 – 109.3%
+8.4
13
8
 Adelaide 1∗ 1 – 104.6%
+13.2
5
9
 Collingwood 1∗ 1 – 98.7%
+11.8
9
10
 St Kilda 1 2 – 92.3%
+9.4
11
11
 Melbourne 1∗ 1 – 84.4%
+9.2
12
12
 West Coast 1∗ 1 – 81.3%
+5.9
16
13
 GWS 1 2 – 81.1%
+11.0
10
14
 Geelong 1∗ 1 – 79.6%
+13.4
4
15
 Carlton 1∗ 1 – 70.9%
+8.3
14
16
 Brisbane Lions –∗ 2 – 77.2%
+13.5
6
17
 Richmond –∗ 2 – 64.5%
+5.7
17
18
 Essendon –∗ 2 – 55.0%
+5.6
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5

17 2.9470 2.95 27.1829 27.18 80.9524 81.0%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5

16 5.1092 5.11 26.2790 26.28 76.1905 76.2%
AFLalytics

4 7 5

16 4.9266 4.93 26.5310 26.53 76.1905 76.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6

16 4.4149 4.41 25.7714 25.77 76.1905 76.2%
HBin

4 7 5

16 4.2512 4.25 27.8286 27.83 76.1905 76.2%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5

15 5.0876 5.09 27.3795 27.38 71.4286 71.4%
s10

2 8 5

15 4.8090 4.81 27.1419 27.14 71.4286 71.4%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5

15 4.7046 4.70 27.8257 27.83 71.4286 71.4%
footycharts

3 7 5

15 4.4316 4.43 26.8529 26.85 71.4286 71.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5

15 4.2174 4.22 27.2381 27.24 71.4286 71.4%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5

15 4.0209 4.02 27.7343 27.73 71.4286 71.4%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5

15 3.7342 3.73 28.5543 28.55 71.4286 71.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5

14 5.1341 5.13 27.1743 27.17 66.6667 66.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5

14 5.0792 5.08 27.6376 27.64 66.6667 66.7%
Graft

3 7 4

14 4.7339 4.73 27.8095 27.81 66.6667 66.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5

14 4.1177 4.12 27.2533 27.25 66.6667 66.7%
ZaphBot

2 7 5

14 4.0535 4.05 30.1429 30.14 66.6667 66.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5

14 3.1080 3.11 29.0952 29.10 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5

13 3.8007 3.80 28.5362 28.54 61.9048 61.9%
Informed Stats

2 7 4

13 3.7133 3.71 29.4286 29.43 61.9048 61.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5

13 3.5767 3.58 28.5052 28.51 61.9048 61.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4

13 3.0829 3.08 30.0143 30.01 61.9048 61.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4

13 2.8115 2.81 29.9524 29.95 61.9048 61.9%
AFL Lab

2 7 4

13 2.7808 2.78 30.8343 30.83 61.9048 61.9%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4

13 2.6691 2.67 29.3286 29.33 61.9048 61.9%
Winnable

1 7 4

12 3.9338 3.93 28.3933 28.39 57.1429 57.1%
Punters

2 6 4

12 3.7924 3.79 27.2143 27.21 57.1429 57.1%
In The Game

2 6 4

12 3.2582 3.26 27.4938 27.49 57.1429 57.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4

12 1.2291 1.23 29.7619 29.76 57.1429 57.1%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3

11 0.1949 0.19 32.6667 32.67 52.3810 52.4%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †9 50.0000 50.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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