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The Tips Are Coming In

Posted on September 27, 2017September 27, 2017 by Max Barry

We have our first computer model Tiger tip! It’s from Matter of Stats.

Matter of Stats post on the tip.

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Matter of Stats, Squiggle

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.9 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.6 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Adelaide 14.8 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Western Bulldogs 14.5 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.7 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Gold Coast 14.6 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Hawthorn 14.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Fremantle 13.6 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
9
 GWS 12.4 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 Carlton 10.8 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 Sydney 10.7 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
12
 Port Adelaide 9.9 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
13
 Melbourne 9.2 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 St Kilda 9.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Essendon 8.9 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 North Melbourne 6.7 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 5.5 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 West Coast 3.2 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 3 games of Round 15, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 11∗ 2 – 134.0%
+6.9
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 10 4 1 113.4%
+4.2
5
3
 Geelong 10 5 – 127.5%
+6.6
2
4
 Adelaide 9∗ 5 – 135.2%
+5.8
3
5
 Hawthorn 9∗ 5 – 111.6%
+5.0
7
6
 Fremantle 9∗ 5 – 110.0%
+4.6
8
7
 Gold Coast 8∗ 4 – 123.2%
+6.6
6
8
 GWS 8∗ 6 – 107.6%
+4.4
9
9
 Western Bulldogs 7∗ 6 – 127.7%
+7.5
4
10
 Carlton 6∗ 8 – 105.1%
+4.8
10
11
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 7 – 84.7%
+3.9
12
12
 Essendon 6∗ 8 – 77.5%
+2.9
15
13
 Sydney 5∗ 8 – 90.1%
+5.7
11
14
 St Kilda 5∗ 8 – 87.8%
+4.2
14
15
 Melbourne 5∗ 9 – 87.1%
+4.2
13
16
 North Melbourne 4∗ 9 1 82.5%
+2.2
16
17
 Richmond 3∗ 10 – 69.4%
+2.5
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 13 – 65.1%
+2.2
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 1

91 18.62 27.45 74.0%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 1

90 19.35 27.03 73.2%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 1

90 18.28 27.29 73.2%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 1

90 16.57 27.97 73.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 1

89 20.17 27.17 72.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 1

89 18.76 27.90 72.4%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 1

89 18.17 27.19 72.4%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 1

89 16.46 27.62 72.4%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 1

88 18.17 27.23 71.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 1

88 17.30 28.87 71.5%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 1

88 17.01 28.58 71.5%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 1

87 20.58 26.83 70.7%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 1

86 17.59 27.44 69.9%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 1

85 18.66 26.94 69.1%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 1

85 18.46 27.64 69.1%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 1

85 16.55 28.09 69.1%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 1

85 16.20 28.08 69.1%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 1

85 15.76 27.45 69.1%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 1

84 15.30 28.18 68.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 1

83 17.61 26.93 67.5%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 1

83 15.83 28.48 67.5%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 1

83 10.77 29.71 67.5%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1

81 16.74 27.85 65.9%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 1

80 14.36 29.16 65.0%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 1

79 9.00 29.35 64.2%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 1

78 15.20 28.11 63.4%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 1

78 13.00 29.16 63.4%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 1

78 12.81 28.56 63.4%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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