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The Tips Are Coming In

Posted on September 27, 2017September 27, 2017 by Max Barry

We have our first computer model Tiger tip! It’s from Matter of Stats.

Matter of Stats post on the tip.

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Matter of Stats, Squiggle

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 16.8 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Port Adelaide 15.6 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Geelong 14.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 GWS 14.9 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.3 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 Western Bulldogs 13.8 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Hawthorn 13.9 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Carlton 13.1 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Fremantle 12.8 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Collingwood 12.7 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
11
 Essendon 11.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 St Kilda 10.7 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
13
 Gold Coast 10.9 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Melbourne 11.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Adelaide 8.4 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 5.0 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 North Melbourne 3.0 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Richmond 2.0 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 26, 2024.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 17 6 – 126.7%
+-0.2
1
2
 Port Adelaide 16 7 – 114.8%
+-0.4
2
3
 Geelong 15 8 – 112.2%
+-0.1
3
4
 GWS 15 8 – 109.1%
+-0.1
4
5
 Brisbane Lions 14 8 1 121.9%
+-0.2
5
6
 Western Bulldogs 14 9 – 125.1%
+-0.2
6
7
 Hawthorn 14 9 – 118.5%
+-0.1
7
8
 Carlton 13 10 – 110.2%
+0.1
8
9
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.5%
+-0.3
10
10
 Fremantle 12 10 1 111.9%
+0.3
9
11
 Essendon 11 11 1 93.5%
+-0.1
11
12
 St Kilda 11 12 – 99.4%
+-0.3
12
13
 Gold Coast 11 12 – 99.1%
+-0.1
13
14
 Melbourne 11 12 – 98.5%
+0.0
14
15
 Adelaide 8 14 1 99.1%
+-0.1
15
16
 West Coast 5 18 – 68.1%
+-0.0
16
17
 North Melbourne 3 20 – 63.5%
+-0.0
17
18
 Richmond 2 21 – 63.7%
+0.0
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Live Ladders

3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2 1 2 1

156 33.35 26.36 72.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2 1 1 1

143 33.50 26.52 66.2%
Informed Stats

2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2 1 1 1

143 26.77 27.31 66.2%
The Wooden Finger

3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 1

143 24.32 27.08 66.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2 2 1 1

142 26.14 27.23 65.7%
AFLalytics

3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 0 1 0

141 29.77 27.17 65.3%
Graft

2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3 0 1 1

141 27.38 27.27 65.3%
s10

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2 0 1 1

140 30.91 26.70 64.8%
Squiggle

2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2 1 2 1

140 29.73 26.76 64.8%
Drop Kick Data

3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2 1 1 1

140 29.21 26.92 64.8%
Massey Ratings

2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2 1 1 1

140 27.51 26.79 64.8%
Aggregate

3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1

139 30.19 26.64 64.4%
What Snoo Thinks

3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2 2 1

139 28.36 27.23†2 65.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1

139 27.41 26.80 64.4%
Matter of Stats

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2 0 1 1

139 27.00 27.34 64.4%
Cheap Stats

1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2 1 2

139 26.60 27.27†1 64.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2 0 1 1

139 21.53 28.11 64.4%
Data by Josh

3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9

138 32.10 26.50†13 68.0%
AFL Lab

3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2 2 0 1

138 28.01 26.72 63.9%
FMI

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2 0 2 0

138 27.46 27.20†1 64.2%
Hyperion

1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2 0

138 26.81 27.44†4 65.1%
The Footycast

3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 0 2 0

138 25.74 26.85 63.9%
Winnable

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1

137 28.92 27.27 63.4%
PlusSixOne

1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2 2 1

137 17.28 28.44†1 63.7%
Punters

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2 0 1 0

136 28.86 26.82 63.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2 0 1 0

135 27.01 27.27 62.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2 1 2 1

135 24.63 27.83 62.5%
Stattraction

1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1

135 24.46 27.53 62.5%
ZaphBot

3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3 1 2 0

133 28.20 26.76 61.6%
The Cruncher

3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3 0 2 0

133 27.48 27.05†2 62.1%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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