Hawthorn v Essendon

M.C.G.

107

103

Match complete
Hawthorn won by 4 points

IN
Morrison
O'Rourke
OUT
IN
McNiece
Colyer
Dea
Guelfi
OUT
TipWin %Margin MAEBits
Aggregate
Hawthorn
55% 6 points 1.70.15
Stattraction
Hawthorn
72% 23 points 19.00.53
Massey Ratings
Hawthorn
66% 13 points 9.00.40
PlusSixOne
Hawthorn
61% 11 points 7.00.28
HPN
Hawthorn
57% 6 points 2.00.19
Live Ladders
Hawthorn
57% 6 points 2.00.19
Footy Maths Institute
Hawthorn
54% 5 points 1.00.11
Squiggle
Hawthorn
53% 2 points 2.30.08
Graft
Hawthorn
51% 0 points 4.00.03
The Arc
Essendon
50% 0 points 4.0-0.01
Matter of Stats
Essendon
51% 2 points 5.5-0.03
Swinburne
Essendon
52% 2 points 6.0-0.06
Punters
Essendon
53% -0.09

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

Round 20, 2018