Essendon v Port Adelaide
2026-08-23 12:20:00 +10:00
Docklands

14.11

95

16.8

104

Port Adelaide won by 9 points

IN

Brodie

Moraes

Byrne-Jones

Horne-Francis

Drew

Aliir

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		62%	10 points	✓	1.1	0.30
Aggregate		61%	10 points	✓	1.2	0.29
		81%	29 points	✓	20.3	0.70
		75%	25 points	✓	16.0	0.58
		74%	24 points	✓	15.0	0.57
		71%	14 points	✓	4.5	0.50
		68%	16 points	✓	7.5	0.45
		68%	13 points	✓	3.6	0.44
		67%	11 points	✓	2.2	0.42
		66%	13 points	✓	4.0	0.40
		64%	12 points	✓	2.9	0.36
		63%	11 points	✓	1.9	0.34
		62%	12 points	✓	3.0	0.31
		62%	16 points	✓	7.0	0.31
		61%	9 points	✓	0.0	0.28
		60%	8 points	✓	1.0	0.26
		59%	7 points	✓	1.8	0.24
		59%	14 points	✓	4.7	0.24
		59%	9 points	✓	0.0	0.23
		59%	10 points	✓	1.4	0.23
		59%	7 points	✓	2.1	0.23
		58%	8 points	✓	1.5	0.21
		57%	6 points	✓	3.3	0.19
		57%	7 points	✓	2.0	0.19
		56%	6 points	✓	3.2	0.17
		55%	6 points	✓	3.0	0.13
Punters		53%	4 points	✓	5.5	0.08
		53%	2 points	✓	7.1	0.07
		52%	2 points	✓	7.1	0.05
		50%	0 points	✗	9.3	-0.01
		56%	4 points	✗	13.4	-0.18

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.