Carlton v Hawthorn
2026-07-11 19:35:00 +10:00
M.C.G.

6.3

39

15.13

103

Hawthorn won by 64 points

IN

Riley

Dean

Pittonet

Young

OUT

IN

Greeves

Impey

Amon

Perez

Dalton

Ryan

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		62%	10 points	✓	54.3	0.31
Aggregate		61%	9 points	✓	54.5	0.28
		73%	19 points	✓	45.3	0.55
		70%	16 points	✓	47.6	0.48
		69%	11 points	✓	53.1	0.47
		69%	17 points	✓	47.1	0.47
		69%	18 points	✓	45.9	0.46
		68%	16 points	✓	48.0	0.45
		67%	16 points	✓	48.0	0.43
		67%	16 points	✓	48.0	0.42
		66%	14 points	✓	50.4	0.41
		66%	11 points	✓	52.9	0.40
		63%	12 points	✓	52.0	0.33
		61%	9 points	✓	54.7	0.29
		61%	10 points	✓	54.3	0.29
		61%	9 points	✓	54.6	0.28
		61%	9 points	✓	55.1	0.28
		60%	10 points	✓	54.0	0.27
		60%	10 points	✓	54.0	0.26
		59%	8 points	✓	56.5	0.24
		59%	10 points	✓	54.0	0.24
		59%	11 points	✓	53.0	0.23
		58%	9 points	✓	55.4	0.22
		58%	6 points	✓	58.5	0.20
Punters		57%	6 points	✓	58.2	0.18
		54%	3 points	✓	61.0	0.11
		54%	2 points	✓	61.8	0.10
		52%	4 points	✓	60.5	0.07
		51%	1 point	✓	62.9	0.04
		51%	1 point	✗	65.0	-0.02
		57%	5 points	✗	69.0	-0.23

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.